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HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
METHODOLOGY
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Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry
Based on analysis of aggregate and anonymous data via:
• Daily revenue model based on analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to the U.S.-based retail websites
• Product and pricing insights based on analysis of sales of more than 55 million unique products
• Adobe Analytics measures transactions at 80 of the top 100** retailers on the web in the U.S.
Adobe Advertising Cloud
** Source: Adobe Analysis of Internet Retailer 2018
Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud
2
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Key Findings
Online Holiday Retail Spending Finished up 16.5% YoY: $126.0B
• Average daily online revenue exceeded $2B for first time; 26 days of the 61-day season exceeded that mark
• Faster growth between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday continued to concentrated sales on those five days;
pushing the $100B mark 11 days earlier this year.
• Pre-Black Friday Deals lifted spending in the days before Thanksgiving
Lessons for Us All
• Smartphones drove half the traffic for the first time and nearly a third of the revenue (average daily
visits/revenue: 51.4%/31.0%)
• Pickup in store showed strong YoY growth (+50%)
• Last step on customer journey equally split between marketing-aided and consumer-defined channels
3
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Online Holiday Shopping Season Reached $126 Billion
Methodology
* The National Retail Federation estimates overall holiday retail will increase between 4.3% and 4.8%
**The NRF Estimates ~$720B in total holiday spending this year, online and offline.
4
Online holiday shopping (Nov-Dec) revenue in the U.S. was
$126.0B in 2018, 16.5% more than 2017.
• Since 2016, online holiday season revenue growth has been
increasing, attributed to strong consumer confidence.
• Online revenue growth during holiday continues to outpace
overall retail growth (16.5% online vs. 4.5% overall*).
Just how much money is $126B?
You could buy nearly 80K homes in San Francisco.
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Holiday Sales Spiked on Key Days then Continued to Rise Until Dec 17th
Online sales trend matched expectations of how consumers shop
during the Holiday.
• The time between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday accounted for $1
in $5 (19.2%) of total online retail revenue.
• Consumers spent an average 40% more per day during the three-
weeks after Cyber Monday than the first three weeks of the season.
• Sales continued to grow until the Monday 8-days out from Christmas
• The rising revenue due to a steady increase in conversion until Dec.
16th as opposed to consumers spending more per order.
Glossary
Pre Cyber-Week: Nov 1st – Nov 17th.
Post Cyber-Week: Nov 28th – Dec 31st
5
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Daily Sales Averaged $2.1B Across the Whole Season
Holiday Season is the 61 days between Nov 1st and New Years Eve
• Averaged $2.1B per day, up from $1.8B last year. (+16.5%)
• 26 $2B days, up from 15 last year
• Every day exceeded $1B day, except for Dec 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 25th.
• Least revenue in the Season was Christmas Eve: $880M
• $100B mark hit 11 days earlier: Dec 15th vs. Dec 26th.
6
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Buy-Online-Pick-Up-In-Store Up Throughout the Season
BOPIS orders
• Increased 47% YoY from November 1st to December 19th.
• Increased 50% YoY during the 5-day Holiday weekend
Retailers need to up-sell-in-store as AOV is smaller
• BOPIS baskets tend to contain few items (1.9 vs 2.7 units).
• Comprising of less expensive items ($38 vs. $42).
Glossary
†Brick-and-click: retailers that have an online store, and physical locations.
7
+50%
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Pure-Play Retailers See More Desktop Traffic and thus Cart Completion
Use of Desktop
• Shoppers at Pure-Play retailers are 30% more likely than those visiting an
omni-channel retailer to use a desktop to shop during the holiday season.
Cart Conversion
• Given the prevalence of desktop shoppers, cart conversion is 40% higher
among Pure-Play retailers.
Glossary
†Brick-and-click: retailers that have an online store, and physical locations.
8
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
For the First Time Smartphones Accounted for Half of all Visits
Share of revenue and visits rose slowly during the season.
• Average daily figures: 51..0% visits; 31.0% revenue up 25% and 34% YoY,
respectively
• Christmas Day continues to be most phone-centric (61% visits and 42%
revenue)
• Typical pattern of strong phone usage on the weekends where share of
visits and revenue increase 6% and 8% respectively
9
51%Share of visits from smartphone
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
5-Day Weekend* Drove Season Growth, With Some Early Shopping
Record Breaking Sales Online by Day:
• Thanksgiving - $3.7B (+27.9%)
• Black Friday - $6.2B (+23.6%)
• Cyber Monday - $7.9B (+19.3%)
$24.2B
5-day weekend sales
+23% YoY
10
• The run up to Thanksgiving saw some days with large growth over last year
• The Sunday Before and Wednesday preceding Thanksgiving saw an incremental $1B
over last year.
• Wednesday is as big as Small Business Saturday last year ($2.4B)
• Wednesday grew 32% YoY
Note: 5 days from Thanksgiving thru Cyber Monday.
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Smartphones Contributed $1 of $3 During Weekend
32%/52%
Share of Revenue and Visits from
smartphones. (+29%/+20% YoY,
respectively)
$2.1B/$2.2B
Smartphone revenue on Black
Friday/Cyber Monday
11
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Prices Dropped for Key Categories on Thanksgiving
Holiday Weekend remains best time to get good deals..
• Prices of Toys dropped this year as retailers fought to capture Toys R Us consumers; 31% vs. 19% last year.
• Televisions showed similar discounts the last two years;
• Computers showed a more steady decrease through out the season ahead of the Thanksgiving drop.
Thanksgiving
Nintendo Switch
Beats
Hot Wheels
Red Dead Redemption 2
HatchiBabies
Black Friday
Laptops (Lenovo and Dell)
L.O.L. Surprise
Fingerlings
Let’s Go Pikachu/Eevee
God of War
Cyber Monday
Fingerlings
L.O.L. Surprise
Nintendo Switch
Laptops (Dell and Apple)
LG TVs
Discount from 1 Oct
to Cyber Monday
Top Selling Products
12
2018 2017
-18% -14%
-19% -21%
-31% -19%
Four hours on Cyber Monday (7pm – 11pm PST) were the most
active period of the year
• These four hours recorded over $2B in sales.
• Conversion rose sharply through the evening, ending at twice
the average for the day as consumers hurried to take
advantage of deals.
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Consumers Waited to Take Advantage of Cyber Monday Deals
Revenue peaked because
consumers committed to
ordering late in the day.
13
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Consumers Shopped a Little Differently Across Markets
Across the top 50 US markets, there is a $22 difference in average order value during the Holiday Season
• Two West Coast cities topped the list this season: Los Angeles $156, San Francisco/San Jose $154
• Top 10 averaged $152.73
• Grand Rapids recorded the lowest at $134 just below three tied at $136 – Hartford & New Haven, Harrisburg/Lancaster, PA, and
Oklahoma City
• Bottom 10 averaged $137.23
Technical Note: Based on Nov 1 to Dec 15
14
• Basket size driven primarily by more items as opposed to more
expensive items.
• Selecting higher-priced items accounts for 39% of the
difference
• Number of items in the cart accounts for 61% of the
difference
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Thanksgiving More Mobile than Black Friday or Cyber Monday
Consumers used their smartphones 10% more than expected
when likely at home or shopping.
• Thanksgiving revenue (actual share vs. predicted share)
• 38% vs. 35% smartphone, 52% vs. 53% desktop
• Black Friday revenue:
• 33% vs. 30% smartphone , 57% vs. 60% desktop
• Cyber Monday revenue:
• 28% vs. 25% smartphone, 64% vs. 66% desktop
• Share of revenue up ~30% YoY each day.
15
Smartphone Cart to Order conversion dipped 9% during the
holiday season compared to the first eight months of the year as
shoppers are less intent on completing their purchases.
• Desktops held steady at year end.
• Cart conversion happens over 30% less often on smartphones
compared to desktop.
• That gap is potentially stifling Holiday Season revenue by
$15B
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Smartphone Cart Conversion Declines During Holiday Season
16
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Revenue Equally Divided Between Aided and Unaided Journeys
50% of holiday weekend revenue associated with tactics where
marketing directly involved in the journey.
• Marketing Aided Tactics: Paid Search, Email/Newsletter, Social
Networks, Display
50% of weekend revenue associated with more unaided paths to
purchase
• Marketing Unaided Tactics: Direct Traffic, Natural Search,
Referring Domains
Patterns very similar to last year for major four tactics; none saw
a share change of more than 10%.
• Paid Search +6%, Email/Newsletter –2%
• Direct Traffic +3%, Natural Search -3%
Glossary
Referring Domains: shopper helper sites like RetailMeNot
17
Appendix
Additional data
18
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Top/Bottom Ten Markets (DMA) Based on Average Order Value
19
Top 10 Markets (DMA) AOV # of Homes
Los Angeles $155.53 151,000
San Francisco-Oak-San Jose $154.47 80,000
Denver $153.20 273,000
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale $153.14 343.000
New York $153.01 271,000
Houston $152.36 570,000
Washington DC (Hagrstwn) $152.07 217,000
Salt Lake City $151.96 321,000
Seattle-Tacoma $151.64 227,000
San Diego $149.92 171,000
Bottom 10 Markets (DMA) AOV # of Homes
Birmingham (Ann and Tusc) $139.43 737,000
Milwaukee $139.17 460,000
Pittsburgh $138.23 808,000
St. Louis $138.02 571,000
Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-And $137.94 750,000
Cincinnati $136.70 724,000
Oklahoma City $136.47 872,000
Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York $136.13 586,000
Hartford & New Haven $135.96 490,000
Grand Rapids-Kalmzoo-B.crk $134.19 710,000
# of Homes: The number of homes $126B could buy in the market according to Zillow Housing Index Nov. 2018.
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Thanksgiving – Cyber Monday 2018 Recap
• Spend from Thanksgiving – Cyber Monday
topped $24.2B, growing 23.3% YoY
• Revenue Device Share:
• 58.2% - Desktop ($14.1B)
• 32.3% - Smartphone ($7.8B)
• 9.5% - Tablet ($2.3B)
• Visits Device Share:
• 39.2% - Desktop
• 52.2% - Smartphone
• 8.63% - Tablet
• Conversion Rates:
• 6.1% - Desktop
• 3.2% - Smartphone
• 5.5% - Tablet
• Overall AOV
• 2018 - $138.39
• 2017 - $130.72
• Smartphone Revenue Records:
• Black Friday - $2.1B
• Cyber Monday - $2.2B
• Top Products:
• Nintendo Switch
• LoL Surprise & Fingerlings
• Red Dead Redemption 2 (Video Game)
• Streaming Devices
• Laptops (Dell & Apple)
20
HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018
Holiday Season 2018 Summary
• Spend from 1 Nov to 31 Dec. $126.0; 16.5% YoY
• Revenue Device Share:
• 60.3% - Desktop ($76.0B)
• 30.8% - Smartphone ($38.8B)
• 8.9% - Tablet ($11.2B)
• Visits Device Share:
• 40.7% - Desktop
• 51.0% - Smartphone
• 8.3% - Tablet
• Conversion Rates:
• 4.7% - Desktop
• 2.3% - Smartphone
• 4.5% - Tablet
• Overall AOV
• Total - $131.71
21
Adobe Digital Insights Holiday Recap 2018

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Adobe Digital Insights Holiday Recap 2018

  • 1. 1
  • 2. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 METHODOLOGY Visit our website: adobe.ly/AdobeInsights Sign up for email alerts: http://www.cmo.com/adiregister.html Follow us: @adobeinsights Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry Based on analysis of aggregate and anonymous data via: • Daily revenue model based on analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to the U.S.-based retail websites • Product and pricing insights based on analysis of sales of more than 55 million unique products • Adobe Analytics measures transactions at 80 of the top 100** retailers on the web in the U.S. Adobe Advertising Cloud ** Source: Adobe Analysis of Internet Retailer 2018 Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud 2
  • 3. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Key Findings Online Holiday Retail Spending Finished up 16.5% YoY: $126.0B • Average daily online revenue exceeded $2B for first time; 26 days of the 61-day season exceeded that mark • Faster growth between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday continued to concentrated sales on those five days; pushing the $100B mark 11 days earlier this year. • Pre-Black Friday Deals lifted spending in the days before Thanksgiving Lessons for Us All • Smartphones drove half the traffic for the first time and nearly a third of the revenue (average daily visits/revenue: 51.4%/31.0%) • Pickup in store showed strong YoY growth (+50%) • Last step on customer journey equally split between marketing-aided and consumer-defined channels 3
  • 4. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Online Holiday Shopping Season Reached $126 Billion Methodology * The National Retail Federation estimates overall holiday retail will increase between 4.3% and 4.8% **The NRF Estimates ~$720B in total holiday spending this year, online and offline. 4 Online holiday shopping (Nov-Dec) revenue in the U.S. was $126.0B in 2018, 16.5% more than 2017. • Since 2016, online holiday season revenue growth has been increasing, attributed to strong consumer confidence. • Online revenue growth during holiday continues to outpace overall retail growth (16.5% online vs. 4.5% overall*). Just how much money is $126B? You could buy nearly 80K homes in San Francisco.
  • 5. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Holiday Sales Spiked on Key Days then Continued to Rise Until Dec 17th Online sales trend matched expectations of how consumers shop during the Holiday. • The time between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday accounted for $1 in $5 (19.2%) of total online retail revenue. • Consumers spent an average 40% more per day during the three- weeks after Cyber Monday than the first three weeks of the season. • Sales continued to grow until the Monday 8-days out from Christmas • The rising revenue due to a steady increase in conversion until Dec. 16th as opposed to consumers spending more per order. Glossary Pre Cyber-Week: Nov 1st – Nov 17th. Post Cyber-Week: Nov 28th – Dec 31st 5
  • 6. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Daily Sales Averaged $2.1B Across the Whole Season Holiday Season is the 61 days between Nov 1st and New Years Eve • Averaged $2.1B per day, up from $1.8B last year. (+16.5%) • 26 $2B days, up from 15 last year • Every day exceeded $1B day, except for Dec 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 25th. • Least revenue in the Season was Christmas Eve: $880M • $100B mark hit 11 days earlier: Dec 15th vs. Dec 26th. 6
  • 7. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Buy-Online-Pick-Up-In-Store Up Throughout the Season BOPIS orders • Increased 47% YoY from November 1st to December 19th. • Increased 50% YoY during the 5-day Holiday weekend Retailers need to up-sell-in-store as AOV is smaller • BOPIS baskets tend to contain few items (1.9 vs 2.7 units). • Comprising of less expensive items ($38 vs. $42). Glossary †Brick-and-click: retailers that have an online store, and physical locations. 7 +50%
  • 8. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Pure-Play Retailers See More Desktop Traffic and thus Cart Completion Use of Desktop • Shoppers at Pure-Play retailers are 30% more likely than those visiting an omni-channel retailer to use a desktop to shop during the holiday season. Cart Conversion • Given the prevalence of desktop shoppers, cart conversion is 40% higher among Pure-Play retailers. Glossary †Brick-and-click: retailers that have an online store, and physical locations. 8
  • 9. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 For the First Time Smartphones Accounted for Half of all Visits Share of revenue and visits rose slowly during the season. • Average daily figures: 51..0% visits; 31.0% revenue up 25% and 34% YoY, respectively • Christmas Day continues to be most phone-centric (61% visits and 42% revenue) • Typical pattern of strong phone usage on the weekends where share of visits and revenue increase 6% and 8% respectively 9 51%Share of visits from smartphone
  • 10. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 5-Day Weekend* Drove Season Growth, With Some Early Shopping Record Breaking Sales Online by Day: • Thanksgiving - $3.7B (+27.9%) • Black Friday - $6.2B (+23.6%) • Cyber Monday - $7.9B (+19.3%) $24.2B 5-day weekend sales +23% YoY 10 • The run up to Thanksgiving saw some days with large growth over last year • The Sunday Before and Wednesday preceding Thanksgiving saw an incremental $1B over last year. • Wednesday is as big as Small Business Saturday last year ($2.4B) • Wednesday grew 32% YoY Note: 5 days from Thanksgiving thru Cyber Monday.
  • 11. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Smartphones Contributed $1 of $3 During Weekend 32%/52% Share of Revenue and Visits from smartphones. (+29%/+20% YoY, respectively) $2.1B/$2.2B Smartphone revenue on Black Friday/Cyber Monday 11
  • 12. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Prices Dropped for Key Categories on Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend remains best time to get good deals.. • Prices of Toys dropped this year as retailers fought to capture Toys R Us consumers; 31% vs. 19% last year. • Televisions showed similar discounts the last two years; • Computers showed a more steady decrease through out the season ahead of the Thanksgiving drop. Thanksgiving Nintendo Switch Beats Hot Wheels Red Dead Redemption 2 HatchiBabies Black Friday Laptops (Lenovo and Dell) L.O.L. Surprise Fingerlings Let’s Go Pikachu/Eevee God of War Cyber Monday Fingerlings L.O.L. Surprise Nintendo Switch Laptops (Dell and Apple) LG TVs Discount from 1 Oct to Cyber Monday Top Selling Products 12 2018 2017 -18% -14% -19% -21% -31% -19%
  • 13. Four hours on Cyber Monday (7pm – 11pm PST) were the most active period of the year • These four hours recorded over $2B in sales. • Conversion rose sharply through the evening, ending at twice the average for the day as consumers hurried to take advantage of deals. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Consumers Waited to Take Advantage of Cyber Monday Deals Revenue peaked because consumers committed to ordering late in the day. 13
  • 14. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Consumers Shopped a Little Differently Across Markets Across the top 50 US markets, there is a $22 difference in average order value during the Holiday Season • Two West Coast cities topped the list this season: Los Angeles $156, San Francisco/San Jose $154 • Top 10 averaged $152.73 • Grand Rapids recorded the lowest at $134 just below three tied at $136 – Hartford & New Haven, Harrisburg/Lancaster, PA, and Oklahoma City • Bottom 10 averaged $137.23 Technical Note: Based on Nov 1 to Dec 15 14 • Basket size driven primarily by more items as opposed to more expensive items. • Selecting higher-priced items accounts for 39% of the difference • Number of items in the cart accounts for 61% of the difference
  • 15. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Thanksgiving More Mobile than Black Friday or Cyber Monday Consumers used their smartphones 10% more than expected when likely at home or shopping. • Thanksgiving revenue (actual share vs. predicted share) • 38% vs. 35% smartphone, 52% vs. 53% desktop • Black Friday revenue: • 33% vs. 30% smartphone , 57% vs. 60% desktop • Cyber Monday revenue: • 28% vs. 25% smartphone, 64% vs. 66% desktop • Share of revenue up ~30% YoY each day. 15
  • 16. Smartphone Cart to Order conversion dipped 9% during the holiday season compared to the first eight months of the year as shoppers are less intent on completing their purchases. • Desktops held steady at year end. • Cart conversion happens over 30% less often on smartphones compared to desktop. • That gap is potentially stifling Holiday Season revenue by $15B HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Smartphone Cart Conversion Declines During Holiday Season 16
  • 17. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Revenue Equally Divided Between Aided and Unaided Journeys 50% of holiday weekend revenue associated with tactics where marketing directly involved in the journey. • Marketing Aided Tactics: Paid Search, Email/Newsletter, Social Networks, Display 50% of weekend revenue associated with more unaided paths to purchase • Marketing Unaided Tactics: Direct Traffic, Natural Search, Referring Domains Patterns very similar to last year for major four tactics; none saw a share change of more than 10%. • Paid Search +6%, Email/Newsletter –2% • Direct Traffic +3%, Natural Search -3% Glossary Referring Domains: shopper helper sites like RetailMeNot 17
  • 19. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Top/Bottom Ten Markets (DMA) Based on Average Order Value 19 Top 10 Markets (DMA) AOV # of Homes Los Angeles $155.53 151,000 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose $154.47 80,000 Denver $153.20 273,000 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale $153.14 343.000 New York $153.01 271,000 Houston $152.36 570,000 Washington DC (Hagrstwn) $152.07 217,000 Salt Lake City $151.96 321,000 Seattle-Tacoma $151.64 227,000 San Diego $149.92 171,000 Bottom 10 Markets (DMA) AOV # of Homes Birmingham (Ann and Tusc) $139.43 737,000 Milwaukee $139.17 460,000 Pittsburgh $138.23 808,000 St. Louis $138.02 571,000 Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-And $137.94 750,000 Cincinnati $136.70 724,000 Oklahoma City $136.47 872,000 Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York $136.13 586,000 Hartford & New Haven $135.96 490,000 Grand Rapids-Kalmzoo-B.crk $134.19 710,000 # of Homes: The number of homes $126B could buy in the market according to Zillow Housing Index Nov. 2018.
  • 20. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Thanksgiving – Cyber Monday 2018 Recap • Spend from Thanksgiving – Cyber Monday topped $24.2B, growing 23.3% YoY • Revenue Device Share: • 58.2% - Desktop ($14.1B) • 32.3% - Smartphone ($7.8B) • 9.5% - Tablet ($2.3B) • Visits Device Share: • 39.2% - Desktop • 52.2% - Smartphone • 8.63% - Tablet • Conversion Rates: • 6.1% - Desktop • 3.2% - Smartphone • 5.5% - Tablet • Overall AOV • 2018 - $138.39 • 2017 - $130.72 • Smartphone Revenue Records: • Black Friday - $2.1B • Cyber Monday - $2.2B • Top Products: • Nintendo Switch • LoL Surprise & Fingerlings • Red Dead Redemption 2 (Video Game) • Streaming Devices • Laptops (Dell & Apple) 20
  • 21. HOLIDAY RECAP | 2018 Holiday Season 2018 Summary • Spend from 1 Nov to 31 Dec. $126.0; 16.5% YoY • Revenue Device Share: • 60.3% - Desktop ($76.0B) • 30.8% - Smartphone ($38.8B) • 8.9% - Tablet ($11.2B) • Visits Device Share: • 40.7% - Desktop • 51.0% - Smartphone • 8.3% - Tablet • Conversion Rates: • 4.7% - Desktop • 2.3% - Smartphone • 4.5% - Tablet • Overall AOV • Total - $131.71 21