This document summarizes the results of a vulnerability survey conducted in Ca Mau and Kien Giang provinces in Vietnam as part of an ADB project. Key findings include: - Agriculture, especially aquaculture and rice, are the primary industries and livelihoods. - Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and alter precipitation patterns, potentially worsening issues like coastal erosion, saline intrusion, and coral bleaching. - Populations vulnerable to climate impacts include low-income rice-shrimp farmers already affected by issues like saline intrusion and disease, and rice farmers facing problems with water access and quality. Adaptation options need to address the needs of vulnerable groups.

1. Vulnerability Survey for Ca
Mau & Kien Giang
ADB TA 7377-VIE Mekong Delta Climate
Change Adaptation Study

2. Purpose of the study
The key purpose of this project is to address
the current knowledge gaps relating to the
impacts and related adaptation strategies
for climate change management in the
Mekong Delta.
The study involves identifying future climate
conditions in the Mekong Delta region, and
assessing the effects of future climate
scenarios on natural, social and economic
systems in the region.

3. Target sectors
The ToR requires climate and socio-
economic impact modeling and risk
assessment for three (3) target sectors:
• Energy and Industry;
• Transport and Urban Planning; and
• Agriculture and Forestry.

5. Vulnerability assessment methodology
 Study assesses climate change vulnerability
for each target sector and province that:
› Clearly establishes the existing climate related
vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity); and
› Provides strategic insights into how existing
vulnerability is likely to change under various
indicative future climate scenarios.

6. Steps involved
• Review of the Global Climate Change, Sea
Level Rise Scenario’s for Vietnam
• Assess the effects of Climate Change on
Natural Systems
• Assess the potential Impacts on Human Systems
• Identify Vulnerability, Risks, Adaptation Options.

7. Vulnerability assessment process

8. Defining vulnerability
The IPCC outlined vulnerability in the Third
Assessment Report as:
› “The degree to which a system is susceptible
to, or unable to cope with the adverse effects
of climate change, including climate variability
and extremes.
› Vulnerability is a function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of climate variation to
which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2001, p.995).

9. Mapping vulnerability
Our survey of ‘current risks’ form the basis upon
which we assess and map the future
‘vulnerabilities’ of each district;
Scenarios based on hazard maps for 2030 and
2050.
 …. based on assessing and rating vulnerability
and risk
 Links environmental and socio economic‐
dimensions with capacity of local communities
and institutions to adapt to climate change….

10. Vulnerability map for SEA

11. Hot spots
 Survey work focused on assessing climate change
vulnerability and risk at the larger provincial and
district levels.
 Also identify ‘vulnerability hotspots’ to highlight the
major issues, risks and impacts facing the province.
 Hotspots include urban areas, specifically the
transport, energy and industrial infrastructure
Rural areas exhibiting high levels of poverty that are
highly exposed to the impacts of climate change -
such as areas affected by sea level rise / inundation.

12. Philippines
Indonesia
Malaysia
Cambodia
Thailand
Laos
Vietnam
®0 550 1,100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (0.33 - 0.46)
moderately vulnerable (0.47 - 0.67)
highly vulnerable (0.68 - 1.00)
Vulnerable Regions in SEA

14. What we have done
 Surveyed all 24 districts in 2 provinces
 Sector specialists have met with all the
GoV provincial counterpart agencies
 Questionnaires were completed for
both districts and sectors
 Support and cooperation received
was excellent

15. Information collected
Population and poverty
Land use and livelihoods
Regional economy
Agriculture and forestry
Aquaculture and fisheries
Industry and energy
Human settlements & transportation
Climate change perceptions / adaptation

16. Population and poverty
We found that:
› Population density is medium to high
› Ratio of urban to rural is low (i.e. approx 10%)
› Poverty rate is about 10%
› Adult education is very high (literacy ~ 100%)
› Health service are good
Very little information was available on:
› Migration trends
› Distribution of households by urban/rural area
› Distribution of ethnic groups/households

17. Land use and livelihoods
Agriculture is the primary industry in
terms of GDP, especially aquaculture in
Ca Mau and rice in Kien Giang.
Two principle livelihood farming systems
exist:
1. Irrigated rice based systems
2.Rice and shrimp based systems
Labour is abundant (60% - 65%).

18. Regional economy
Primary industries (agriculture,
aquaculture, forestry and fisheries)
Manufacturing and processing industries
Commercial services
Tourism
Energy
Urban settlement
Water supply & sanitation
Transport systems

19. Agriculture
Predominantly irrigated rice - triple cropping in inland
areas/double;
 Single cropping in hydrologically affected areas (that
are out of reach of irrigation; have soil limitations such as
acid sulphate; or are salt, drought and flood affected)
Rice-shrimp in coastal salt affected zones
Acid soils affect many low lying wetland areas
Minor fruit, livestock, vegetables are grown across both
provinces
Government policy supports rice production but is
inflexible in allowing transition to rice-shrimp systems or to
pure shrimp-based aquaculture
Phuc Quoc high-quality pepper sold locally, some
exported

20. Fisheries
 Fishing is a major industry in both
provinces, contributing significantly to
the national and domestic markets.
 The main fisheries include:
› Deep water pelagic species;
› Inshore and reef fisheries;
› Shrimp and Squid;
› and ‘other’ species’.

22. Fishing operations
Inshore fisheries are considered marginal due to
high fishing intensity and high costs.
Offshore fisheries cover extensive fishing grounds
(150+ islands and 50+ fish processing factories).
Boats operate to sea for long periods (1-2
weeks); serviced by re-supply vessels
Gears used include: pursane nets, trawl / gill nets,
long lines, drop lines and traps.
Principle domestic / export markets via Tac Cau,
Can Tho and Ho Chi Minh.

23. Aquaculture
Mostly shrimp, minor freshwater fish
Ca Mau supplies 70% of VN export shrimp
Traditional shrimp grown in southern Ca Mau; An Minh, An
Bien
Semi-intensive shrimp, crab, mussels culture promising; but
underveloped
Intensive shrimp in Kien Luong, Dam Doi, Cai Nuoc and
Phu Tan (disease control key to success)
Rice-shrimp systems increasing in salt affected areas

24. Typical organisation of aquaculture sector in southern
Ca Mau
Transition I – Supporting traditional farmers to move to semi-extensive
Transition 2 – Supporting Semi-extensive to move to commercial HH intensive

26. Forestry
 Forestry: minor but important role in both provinces in
comparison with rice / aquaculture
 Inland Melalueca forests on acid soils are important for
biodiversity conservation and livelihoods (construction,
charcoal and coastal fences).
 Mangroves protect against coastal erosion and storm
surge, and contribute to biodiversity conservation, fish
hatcheries, timber/charcoal production.
 Many coastal communities earn income from 30/70
mangrove shrimp systems.
Dipertocarp eco-tourism forests on Phú Quoc.

28. Rural water supply
Rain-harvested is main drinking water supply for rural
people (often requiring supplementary water in the dry
season).
Groundwater plentiful over most areas, access is
good, makes up the majority of water to HHs from
aquifers from 70m to 250 m
Saline intrusion into the shallower aquifers is a problem
and getting worse, esp. U Minh in Ca Mau
Many areas have abandoned shallow wells due to
saline intrusion

30. Change in temperature - A2 scenarios
2090-20992050-2059
0
C
Application of PRECIS model - Hadley Center, UK

31. Change in precipitation - A2 scenario
2050-2059 2090-2099
%
Application of PRECIS model - Hadley Center, UK

32. Inundation Map of Mekong
River Delta, SLR 0.75 m
SLR: 0.75 m
Inundation: 7580 km2
(19%)
Basing on DEM b(5 x 5 km)
provided by National Remote
Sensing Center, MONRE

33. CC impacts on natural resources and livelihoods
• COASTLINE EROSION ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN KIEN GIANG (Hon
Dat, An Bien, An Minh) and western Ca Mau lining the West Sea.
• Existing dyke is of variable quality along the entire coast from the northern cape of
An Bien to the south-western point of Phu Tan District.
• The major continuing impacts are land and coastal forest loss, and potential
ones involve increasing risks of storm surge floods, and higher frequency of
increased maximum high tide levels.
• A key concern is the ONGOING LOSS OF COASTAL MANGROVES for charcoal,
timber and conversion to aquaculture ponds, which requires a high-level PPC task
force to determine the options that control these practices, while stimulating viable
socio-economic options.
• SALINE INTRUSION PENETRATING INLAND along unprotected canal and river
mouths during high tides and dry seasons.
• REPEATED EL NINO RELATED CORAL BLEACHING EVENTS carry the risk of
serious coral reef degradation, requiring application of innovative regeneration
approaches (coral nurseries & plantations) to restore them to health as soon as
feasible. Potential impacts on Phu Quoc tourism.

35. Vulnerability
• Principal socio-economic groups that can be defined as highly-vulnerable to potential
climate change impacts are:
• LOW INCOME EARNING RICE-SHRIMP FARMING FAMILIES in the coastal saline-
intrusion belt of Giang Thanh, Kien Luong, Hon Dat, An Bien, An Minh, U Minh and Tran
Van Thoih Districts. A significant proportion of these farmers suffer the combined risks of
irregular salinity levels, shrimp diseases, inability to invest in pond system improvements.
• RICE PRODUCING FAMILIES WORKING ON LAND WITH LIMITATIONS TO THE
QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF IRRIGATION WATER, due to weakened cross-Province
flows from the Hau River, salinity intrusion and irregular monsoon rains.
• Farmers are at risk of abnormal onset of the rainy season, of temporary periods of drought
during the rainy season, and of heavy rainfall events during crop flowering and before
harvesting.
• DOUBLE-CROPPING RICE FARMERS USING LAND AT THE FRONT-EDGE OF THE
SALINE INTRUSION ZONE (Giang Thanh example), where rice yields are being
significantly reduced.
• Specific Communes are also being affected by reductions in the flows available from the
Mekong River to allow for flushing out of salt from rice paddies.
• With unreliable monsoon onset, this means that the time needed for flushing out salt and
acidity can be too long for the rice crop to develop and harvest optimally.

37. Manufacturing & processing
Seafood processing is the main industry in Ca
Mau
The industrial base in Kien Giang is broader,
including the cement production, seafood
processing and tourism
Ship building and brick making are important
industries in both provinces
Many small-medium size industries, but are
generally low value and low technology

38. The services sector
Commercial sector ranges from open sided palm roofed
restaurant to 15-storey air-conditioned hotel with lifts
Government buildings, large retail stores, hospitals etc
built to last - say 30+ years
Private commercial buildings with permanent materials
such as family hotels, private sector offices, retail outlets,
restaurants generally built down to minimum cost, often
refurbished regularly, maybe 20 year life
For most small retail stores asset value is in land & not in
building structure
No consideration of sea level rise or stronger storm surge
etc in building site choice and elevation

39. Industrial zones
 Majority of factories (especially seafood processing)
occur on relatively low land and are exposed to SLR
and inundation – however the majority are of low asset
value and have short lifecycles and are less sensitive
when compared to high value assets.
 Many new industrial zones planned or recently
established (many of which are low lying and/or
adjacent to urban areas); such as Nam Canh ship
building plant, which is very vulnerable to SLR.

40. Transportation – Ca Mau
Limited length of National (120 km) and Provincial (273 km) roads.
Major expansions of network with SCC and Highway 1 in hand
with raised elevation codes.
Road network constrained by river crossings to be bridged in
future.
Extensive long developed network of inland rivers and canals
serving all areas
Main coastal trading ports of Nam Can and Song Doc. Inland
port of Ca Mau City
Major domestic airport in Ca Mau City

41. Kien Giang
Main road is NR 80 running north – south connecting most
major mainland settlements.
To be upgraded along present route as SCC to
Cambodia border.
•Main canal from Rach Gia to Ha Tien & Cai Lon river
provide main inland water routes.
•Main inland fishing port at Tac Cau.
•Extensive ferry system between main urban areas and Phu
Quoc
•Major domestic airports at Rach Gia & for Phu Quoc (soon
to be international).

42. Transportation & Climate
Change New roads should be designed with current geological and likely hydrological conditions in mind.
 Provincial DoT should have more input into designs as they have a wealth of local knowledge.
 Part of the new Highway 1 Extension road to Cape Ca Mau as designed may suffer from: transverse flows
through canals and culverts being blocked by silt, which will affect eco-system drainage patterns;
 Near the coast, large erosion control will be required to protect road; squatters are likely to locate along the
route and have the opportunity to encroach on the national park.
 Higher Elevation Codes for roads may well be justified to protect this valuable asset from rising sea levels.
However, roads are only a means of transporting people and goods from A to B. If A and B are increasingly
underwater due to sea-level rise then there may be no people or goods left to use the protected road.
 Although major roads can be protected from anticipated sea-level rises, this would be impossibly expensive
for all Provincial and District roads. Hence those living where roads will not be raised will still rely on water
transportation as they have done in the past.
 Important to ensure that the full inland waterway network remains intact and well serviced for transportation
as well as for drainage/irrigation purposes.
 Interchanges between inland waterways and key protected roads should be encouraged to develop and the
government should assist by constructing all-weather, long lasting jetties. This will assist in the movement of
people and goods in future.

43. Tourism
Kien Giang has 4 tourism zones focusing on marine based tourism:
Phú Quoc, Ha Tien, Rach Gia, and Kien Luong.
Phú Quoc is the major tourism destination (328,000 tourists per year
(98,000 foreigners); 70% of tourism revenue in Kien Giang province;
international airport under construction
Ha Tien tourism is growing as a gateway to Cambodia
Rach Gia tourism focuses on domestic tourists, growing
accommodation, food, coffee, bars.
Ca Mau tourism is still developing with only 34,000 tourists / year (1,000
foreigners)
 Marine based tourist facilities / attractions highly susceptible to SLR.

44. Energy infrastructure
Ca Mau gas-power-fertilizer complex
is the largest asset (approx. $2 billion),
and is only 2 to 3 meters ASL
Unclear if gas pipeline-power–
fertilizer complex design considered
SLR, berms & pumps possible.
Signs of corrosion at Ca Mau Power
Plant after less than 4 yrs (will get
worse as salinity levels and duration
increases in dry season).

45. Power distribution
Power distribution networks estimated
value approx. $30 million per province, 30%
of which are in salt affected areas
Distribution system mostly built since 1997,
salt may reduce poles etc life from 15 to 12
yrs – real impact may be less, possibly can
change concrete spec at low or no cost –
system will adapt anyway as loads change
110kV HV distribution is mostly already on
1.5 concrete pads

46. Power supply
 95% of households have grid electricity supply.
 Power supply is relatively reliable (about 20 power
outages per year due low hydropower generation
capacity in dry season).
Most industrial plants have diesel back up
generators
LPG main cooking fuel, some rural wood and
charcoal
Rice husks increasingly replacing coal for waste fish
process heat.

47. Urban settlements – Ca Mau
•3 main urban centres led by Ca Mau City (Level II); Nam
Can (Level V); Song Doc (Level V). 12 smaller centres.
•Ca Mau City: inland administrative and commercial
centre; and for processing of the outputs from the
region’s primary sector.
•Nam Can chosen as coastal economic zone. Key transit
centre for aquaculture products in the southern part of
the Province.
•Song Doc has Marine Economic Town status and serves
as the base for small fishing boats.

48. Kien Giang
•2 main coastal urban centres and one island. Rach
Gia (Level II) and Ha Tien (Level IV). Phu Quoc (Level
IV)
•Key coastal developing urban area of Kien Luong
•28 other smaller inland centres
•Rach Gia: administrative and commercial centre
and seaside activities
•Ha Tien: historic and border economic zone
•Phu Quoc: domestic and international tourism

49. Urban utilities – Ca Mau
Ca Mau Water Supply, Sanitation & Urban Works
company supplies 8 out of 9 Districts (EXCEPT Ngoc Hien
District) with treated piped water from bore holes.
• Considering surface water sources from the east in
future: concerns about quality and quantity of
groundwater
• Some flooding is reported in low lying areas at high
tides with heavy rainfall
• Most urban buildings use septic tanks which discharge
into the drainage system
• All Districts have landfill sites

50. Kien Giang
•Kien Giang Water Supply and Sanitation Company
supplies Rach Gia, Ha Tien, Phu Quoc and 8 other
Districts with treated piped water mostly from surface
sources.
•Concern over finding/adapting surface water sources
to ensure minimal and manageable salinity issues
•Large scale repeated flooding in Hon Dat, Tan Hiep,
Kien Luong and An Bien in wet season from river over-
topping
•Most urban buildings use septic tanks which discharge
into the drainage system
•All Districts have landfill sites. Ha Tien has a solid waste
treatment plant

51. Urban Utilities
 Urban water supply systems in both Provinces are investing in new
plants and serving increasing numbers of customers with good
quality, subsidised water.
 In Ca Mau all urban water is provided from groundwater: in Kien
Giang it is mostly from surface water with backup tube wells in the
event of extended salinity periods past the water intakes.
 While many key urban roads have been constructed and improved
in the past, urban drainage and sanitation services have suffered
from minimal investment leading to unsightly rubbish, blocked drains
and insanitary conditions in many areas. Only one District in the two
Provinces has a controlled landfill site.
 Large sums of money are planned to be invested in new roads and
bridges. Previous experience suggests that sanitation services and
drainage will not be a priority. Given the low elevations and small
variations in height it makes sense to develop these utilities at the
same time as other strategic urban infrastructure. Retrofitting such
utilities will be expensive and difficult given the nature of the terrain.

52. Urban Utilities & Climate Change
 In both Provinces there is concern about future water supply.
 In Ca Mau they are considering surface water sources from the east
because of concerns about the quality and quantity of available
groundwater:
 In Kien Giang the issue is finding/adapting surface water sources to
ensure they have minimal and manageable salinity issues.
 Drainage, flooding and sanitation issues should all be considered
together in future given that they are all interrelated (several planned
combined sewage treatment/drainage systems); and all will play a
part in dealing with climate change issues.
 There are a range of approaches including river containment, river
expansion and reducing peak drainage flows.

53. Urban Planning
 National policy to move from Primary into Secondary and Service
industries translates into a huge expected new demand for space to
produce the GDP and fulfil workforce projections.
 Massive new expenditure on dispersed infrastructure to urban
periphery sites which have the necessary sizes to meet projections.
 Current planning standards are generous in terms of land allocations
for the expected population given that overall annual growth rates are
about 1.5% with net outmigration.
 There is no overall regional strategy which could have determined both
the demand and supply issues relating to producing and processing the
main products of the region using the potential workforce and capital
available.
 Consequently, both Provinces and every key urban area are locked in
a battle to attract investment into an excess of newly planned economic
and industrial zones, rather than examining comparative advantages of
each area from a strategic viewpoint.

54. Urban Planning & Climate Change
 Relate what is planned and implemented at the urban level with the rural activities (seafood
and rice) that support urban functions. If rural activities are affected by sea-level rise or
increased salinity; this will feed into production, incomes, employment and investment
and directly influence urban well-being.
 Counter-productive to focus on protecting urban areas from the effects of climate change
when major impacts will be on production within the primary sector.
 Valuable to encourage public thinking and behaviour which takes into account climate
change by trying to make urban living more efficient and safer. The revised elevation codes
have their merits as do revised building designs which minimise the use of ground floors for
habitation.
 Low-density, dispersed and randomly phased development is not conducive to sustainable
living. The current urban Master Plans are hard to efficiently service and protect from rising
sea levels with government supplied and paid infrastructure.
 There is a good case for the private sector to provide much of the supporting infrastructure
for the industrial and service expansion themselves.
 Within overall long-term strategy. GoV should make clear what, when and where will be the
short-term supporting urban investments, to encourage development in agreed locations.

56. Climate change perceptions
 All districts very concerned about impacts of
climate change
 Most agencies and districts are aware of impacts
of climate change, especially in the coastal zone
and urban areas.
 The majority of agencies and districts to a lesser
extent are preparing for climate change through
planning and awareness raising activities.

57. Adaptive capacity
• Knowledge about science of climate change and range of potential
impacts on natural resources and agricultureCC is variable but overall
is below optimum in DARD and DONRE; and at District and
Commune levels.
• Specific foci of climate impacts are recognised, including specific
areas of coasts ongoing erosion; but there is little awareness of the
specific risks to agricultural and aquaculture systems posed by climate
change-related heatwaves, droughts, intensified rainfall, floods etc.
• Climate change risks already widely understood are the altered and
abnormal seasons, and the spreading of saline surface waters.
• Very limited inter-Department joint work programmes are being
carried out, consultation on plans and reporting on achievements is
virtually non-existent, and lesson-learning across Depts. is very limited.
• Work briefs are highly compartmentalised with staff only attending to
issues of direct responsibility, inhibiting the ability to think across
disciplines, generating strategic insights on which to base integrated
programmes that tackle complex sets of causes of a defined problem.

58. Barriers to adaptation
 Main barriers to taking action to address
potential climate change impact:
 Lack of information about potential climate
change impacts
 Poor public understanding and lack of
public support
 Lack of funding for climate change
planning

59. Ambitious plans for expansion of COMMERCIAL INTENSIVE SHRIMP
production are set for 2015 in both Provinces. Now being filtered down
to Commune level targets (40 – 60 ha per year per Commune). There are
VERY UNCLEAR UNDERSTANDINGS of how to meet all the TA, water
quality, credit, investment and skills requirements.
Saline intrusion control plans largely involve ambitious plans for
SLUICE GATE CONSTRUCTION across canal mouths to the sea; and
within inland canal systems to control inward progress of saline
intrusion movements.
CAMBODIA – CA MAU – HCM TRUNK ROAD, attempts integration with
sea dyke defences along Kien Luong – Hon Dat – Rach Gia section.
Associated with ambitious PLANS TO DAM THE CAI LON RIVER upriver
of the AN BIEN PROPOSED BRIDGE; linking in to proposed development
of LARGE SCALE SEAFOOD PROCESSING FACILITIES on both sides of
Cai Lon (Chau Tanh / An Bien).
DAM OF CAI LON RIVER would create a reservoir capable of storing
large volumes of freshwater to improve supplies to the two main N-S
canals crossing An Bien and An Minh.

61. Priorities for climate change measures:
• Sea dyke establishment
• Agricultural sector resilience and better
national, Province & District NRM planning
• Improved aquaculture systems
• Awareness raising
• Mangrove restoration

63. Enhanced coordination of spatial planning on all
time scales is needed. Consideration of absorption
capacities and investment payback schemes may
be neglected in top-down planning, where DARD,
DONRE, MOC and Districts need to participate in a
clear consultative process with local stakeholders.
Better coordination process must be designed and
authorised so that donors, Departments, Institutes
and affected stakeholders can make their views
heard at relevant stages of proposal development.

64. Poverty
recommendations: 2• Traditional poverty reduction focus of policy-makers and
agency staff needs to be re-dimensioned towards vulnerability
reduction.
• Same level of political priority assigned by the PPCs to
eliminating pockets of poverty through economic growth and
social welfare measures, now needs to be assigned to the
hotspots or ‘adaptation areas’ identified in this study.
• Vulnerability and poverty need to be understood as two sides of
the same coin.
• The hotspot identification procedure should be developed to
allow government staff to systematically analyse the issues
facing each geographical zone, and identify specific actions to
support vulnerability reduction.

65. NRM recommendations: 3
• An urgent need is to re-examine the DARD fishing zones delimitation and quota
supervision systems, AND MAKE THESE OPERATIONAL in order to tackle the
potentially high risk of collapsing fish stocks, under the combined threat of over-
fishing, and climate change impacts.
• Management costs of control systems need to be derived from taxes and profits of
port authorities and seafood processing plants, which have a clear interest in
continued sustainable seafood supplies.
• Opportunities should be vigorously taken to learn from all innovative practices
developed by GIZ project, in mangrove rehabilitation, Melalueca coastal fencing
systems, low cost concrete faced earthen dykes; and sustainable aquaculture and
coastal forest management.
• A particular synergy is the work done on the thinning of inland Melalueca forests,
producing poles of various dimensions for sea fences, and leaving behind stands of
trees to fatten up as potential high value trunks for veneer or furniture.
• Continued focus on improving the Melalueca value chain and ensuring that farmers
receive maximum added value is essential for sustainability of these forests.
Massive educational programmes on the advantages of thinning should receive PPC
support.

66. Provincial PPCs, MARD and its respective DARDs should establish a target
programme to support traditional shrimp farmers to capitalize and
become more productive, by moving an annual percentage of these out of
high-risk, low-yielding systems, into SEMI- EXTENSIVE SYSTEMS
Improved water monitoring systems; protect water quality in the canal systems;
and encourage farmers to install improved aqua-forest ecosystems that can
increase natural productivity.
Some enterprising farmers should be supported to move to semi-extensive
systems, including supplementary feeding, and using improved shrimp genetic
stock.
Apart from the ambitious targets set for DARD to establish new areas of
intensive commercial shrimp farms, DARD will need to add SIGNIFICANT
WATER QUALITY MONITORING AND DISEASE CONTROL
TECHNOLOGIES to its menu of technical assistance programmes.
This will require DARD to collaborate actively with other actors such as the
Institute of Aquaculture to build programmes that the considerable lower
production risks facing smaller-scale farmers.

67. Agri recommendations: 5
• PPCS OF CA MAU AND KIEN GIANG WILL NEED TO INCREASE THEIR
SUPPORT AND FLEXIBILITY TOWARDS THREE MAJOR TRANSITIONS IN
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS:
(I) In double-cropping rice producing areas, where saline intrusion is significant, and where
access to Mekong river irrigation water is limited in the dry season, planners must show
increasing flexibility towards ALLOWING FARMERS TO MOVE TO RICE-SHRIMP SYSTEMS.
(II) In areas where rice-shrimp farming has been allowed, saline intrusion will progress over
coming decades making soils too difficult to manage for rice production. This will then require
an EVENTUAL POLITICAL DECISION TO PERMIT FARMERS TO MOVE TOWARDS PURE
AQUACULTURE PONDS, as in southern Ca Mau.
• (III) The current plan to promote intensive shrimp aquaculture on a large scale in Kien Giang
and Ca Mau Provinces, relies on many uncertain ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING THE ABILITY
OF SMALL-SCALE, RISK-AVERSE, TRADITIONAL SHRIMP PRODUCERS TO “JUMP” TO
INTENSIVE SYSTEMS. The need for wide-scale access to improved skills and credit is barely
recognised. As well the need for improved electricity infrastructure.
• (IV) Renewed attention needs to be placed on the CORRECT BALANCE BETWEEN
CONSERVATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OBJECTIVES, giving these a high
priority when considering typical very ambitious development plans emerging from PPCs and
Districts.
• THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE WILL INCREASINGLY DICTATE LIMITS
TO GROWTH, AND MAKE SOME DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS SIMPLY UNFEASIBLE.
THESE LIMITS NEED TO BE GIVEN ATTENTION AND PRIORITY.

68. Next steps
Next Step –
prioritizing risks
Identifying
specific
adaptation
options & sites

69. Thank You
From the International Team of consultants:
Peter Mackay – Team Leader
Mark Kowal – Agriculture and NRM
Frank Pool – Energy and Infrastructure
Ian Hamilton – Planning and Urban Dev.
Ronnie Carbonell – Social Issues and Economics