This document is the Fall 2016 edition of the Greater New Haven Economic Activity Report published by the New Haven Economic Performance Laboratory. It contains economic analyses and data series for the Connecticut and New Haven regions conducted by University of New Haven students and faculty. The report finds that while economic conditions continue to improve overall, the New Haven region's recovery continues to lag other parts of New England and the nation. It includes analyses of topics like the housing market, employment, GDP, and consumer prices.
DCR TrendLine September 2014 - Non Employee Workforce Insightss
DCR TrendLine shares analyses of trends and happenings in the staffing industry. The September edition covers a range of topics, including the latest employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and worker satisfaction with their wages. This month’s edition focuses on some topics gaining a lot of attention lately such as workplace flexibility, the upcoming global labor shortage, and the top metro cities with job opportunities for contingent workers. Be sure to keep an eye out for our quarterly feature – “What’s Trending in the Temp Market” – to see the hottest trends for Q3. September is back-to-school month in many U.S. cities, and to commemorate the start of the new school year, our monthly industry highlight is on education services. We also follow-up on last month’s article about Generation Z by providing tips for employers to engage and manage these workers. Our feature article this month looks at one of the biggest buzzwords for companies – global. We discuss how HR can be organized and designed to better meet the global objectives of companies, while still taking local actions.
Visit the DCR TrendLine portal at http://trendline.dcrworkforce.com to easily access all of our current and previous analyses, and view comprehensive charts of real-time trends.
The Fed kept rates on hold yesterday – pretty much a done deal – and its statement yesterday following its two-day policy meeting was very short on new insights.
But it was in line with my expectation that while the Fed would present a marginally less dovish assessment of the global economy, it would paint a still cloudy picture of the US and nurse the recently faltering rally in global risk appetite. US equities closed up 0.3% yesterday and 2, 5 and 10yr US treasury yields are down 6-10bps since Tuesday.
The Fed faces seven rocky weeks ahead of its 15th June meeting. It will likely want to keep the door ajar for a hike and will therefore not want to see US yields break out of range. But the market’s violent reaction today to the BoJ’s unchanged monetary policy is also a stark reminder that an overly-hawkish Fed could derail global risk appetite and in turn delay any Fed hikes.
With this in mind, my core scenario of a June is likely to be tested in coming weeks and the risk remains that flat-lining emerging market currencies will come under pressure.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Sticking to forecasts: Fed summer hike, Dollar hat-trick still on the cards, ...Olivier Desbarres
The Federal Reserve’s minutes of its 27th April policy meeting released last week set the tone for a possible June or July rate hike. On balance, recent US and global data are unlikely to have fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve’s view that a summer hike may be appropriate.
This is line with my long-held forecast that the Federal Reserve would likely hike once or twice this year, with the first hike in June. I recently updated my forecast to a July hike as it gives the Fed more time to assess US and global data and the result of the UK referendum on 23rd June. The risk is that the very threat of a hike derails financial markets sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to postpone its second-hike-in-a-decade to later this year.
Surprisingly, this message was seemingly absent from the wafer-thin policy statement the Federal Reserve issued on 27th April.
I maintain my January forecast that the dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)[1] may well end the year slightly higher, propelled by the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve going against the global trend of easier (or at least easy) monetary policy.
Conversely, the recent modest weakening in emerging market currencies is likely to extend, as per my prediction in early April. Macro data are too weak to reassure markets that any economy can single-handedly steady slowing global growth but strong enough for the Federal Reserve to force markets to reprice the risk of tighter US policy.
My core scenario has been that the UK would vote to remain in the EU and, if anything, that conviction has strengthened following recent surveys. The lifting of this uncertainty would see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate, albeit modestly given the UK’s underlying structural deficiencies.
Investigating The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and House...IJSB
Abstract
This study examines the matter of trends (level and slope), cycle and irregular components in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Household Consumption Expenditure (HCE) of two SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries: Nepal and Pakistan. SAARC countries produce GDP (PPP) US$ 9.9 trillion and GDP (Nominal) US$ 2.9 trillion and constitute 9.12% of global economy as of 2015. The mentioned two countries from this region are selected due to their importance in the SAARC region and their challenges during last few decades i.e. Political crisis and natural disasters. In this study the multivariate unobserved components model is used to decompose the GDP and HCE and examine the relationships between these two variables of Nepal and Pakistan. The time period of this study is 1970-2014 and Kushnirs statistical data is employed. The maximum likelihood smoother is employed in the trend plus stochastic cycle methodology of Koopman et al. (2009) to estimate the model. It is found here that there have no deficiencies in the diagnostics of normality, auxiliary, prediction, and forecast. And residual diagnostics also present that it is nicely fitted with this model. Empirical results clearly show that there have strong correlations between the GDP and HCE in irregular components in both the countries of Nepal and Pakistan. Finally, in both slope and cycle, the correlations between GDP and HCE of Nepal and Pakistan are found perfectly positive in the short and long run.
Download original form http://ijsab.com/wpcontent/uploads/2017/02/101.pdf
DCR TrendLine September 2014 - Non Employee Workforce Insightss
DCR TrendLine shares analyses of trends and happenings in the staffing industry. The September edition covers a range of topics, including the latest employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and worker satisfaction with their wages. This month’s edition focuses on some topics gaining a lot of attention lately such as workplace flexibility, the upcoming global labor shortage, and the top metro cities with job opportunities for contingent workers. Be sure to keep an eye out for our quarterly feature – “What’s Trending in the Temp Market” – to see the hottest trends for Q3. September is back-to-school month in many U.S. cities, and to commemorate the start of the new school year, our monthly industry highlight is on education services. We also follow-up on last month’s article about Generation Z by providing tips for employers to engage and manage these workers. Our feature article this month looks at one of the biggest buzzwords for companies – global. We discuss how HR can be organized and designed to better meet the global objectives of companies, while still taking local actions.
Visit the DCR TrendLine portal at http://trendline.dcrworkforce.com to easily access all of our current and previous analyses, and view comprehensive charts of real-time trends.
The Fed kept rates on hold yesterday – pretty much a done deal – and its statement yesterday following its two-day policy meeting was very short on new insights.
But it was in line with my expectation that while the Fed would present a marginally less dovish assessment of the global economy, it would paint a still cloudy picture of the US and nurse the recently faltering rally in global risk appetite. US equities closed up 0.3% yesterday and 2, 5 and 10yr US treasury yields are down 6-10bps since Tuesday.
The Fed faces seven rocky weeks ahead of its 15th June meeting. It will likely want to keep the door ajar for a hike and will therefore not want to see US yields break out of range. But the market’s violent reaction today to the BoJ’s unchanged monetary policy is also a stark reminder that an overly-hawkish Fed could derail global risk appetite and in turn delay any Fed hikes.
With this in mind, my core scenario of a June is likely to be tested in coming weeks and the risk remains that flat-lining emerging market currencies will come under pressure.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Sticking to forecasts: Fed summer hike, Dollar hat-trick still on the cards, ...Olivier Desbarres
The Federal Reserve’s minutes of its 27th April policy meeting released last week set the tone for a possible June or July rate hike. On balance, recent US and global data are unlikely to have fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve’s view that a summer hike may be appropriate.
This is line with my long-held forecast that the Federal Reserve would likely hike once or twice this year, with the first hike in June. I recently updated my forecast to a July hike as it gives the Fed more time to assess US and global data and the result of the UK referendum on 23rd June. The risk is that the very threat of a hike derails financial markets sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to postpone its second-hike-in-a-decade to later this year.
Surprisingly, this message was seemingly absent from the wafer-thin policy statement the Federal Reserve issued on 27th April.
I maintain my January forecast that the dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)[1] may well end the year slightly higher, propelled by the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve going against the global trend of easier (or at least easy) monetary policy.
Conversely, the recent modest weakening in emerging market currencies is likely to extend, as per my prediction in early April. Macro data are too weak to reassure markets that any economy can single-handedly steady slowing global growth but strong enough for the Federal Reserve to force markets to reprice the risk of tighter US policy.
My core scenario has been that the UK would vote to remain in the EU and, if anything, that conviction has strengthened following recent surveys. The lifting of this uncertainty would see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate, albeit modestly given the UK’s underlying structural deficiencies.
Investigating The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and House...IJSB
Abstract
This study examines the matter of trends (level and slope), cycle and irregular components in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Household Consumption Expenditure (HCE) of two SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries: Nepal and Pakistan. SAARC countries produce GDP (PPP) US$ 9.9 trillion and GDP (Nominal) US$ 2.9 trillion and constitute 9.12% of global economy as of 2015. The mentioned two countries from this region are selected due to their importance in the SAARC region and their challenges during last few decades i.e. Political crisis and natural disasters. In this study the multivariate unobserved components model is used to decompose the GDP and HCE and examine the relationships between these two variables of Nepal and Pakistan. The time period of this study is 1970-2014 and Kushnirs statistical data is employed. The maximum likelihood smoother is employed in the trend plus stochastic cycle methodology of Koopman et al. (2009) to estimate the model. It is found here that there have no deficiencies in the diagnostics of normality, auxiliary, prediction, and forecast. And residual diagnostics also present that it is nicely fitted with this model. Empirical results clearly show that there have strong correlations between the GDP and HCE in irregular components in both the countries of Nepal and Pakistan. Finally, in both slope and cycle, the correlations between GDP and HCE of Nepal and Pakistan are found perfectly positive in the short and long run.
Download original form http://ijsab.com/wpcontent/uploads/2017/02/101.pdf
Analysis of Budget Realization to Assess the Effectiveness and Efficiency of ...ijtsrd
This study aims to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the performance of the regional government of the Gowa Regency Tourism and Culture Office in 2017 2019. The types of data used in this research are qualitative and quantitative data. The data sources used are primary and secondary data. The analytical method used is descriptive quantitative. The results showed that the level of effectiveness of the Department of Tourism and Cultures budget management during the 2017 2019 fiscal year. can be said to be very effective, because by having an average effectiveness ratio above 100 . Meanwhile, the level of efficiency of budget management for the Tourism and Culture Office during the 2017 2019 fiscal year can be said to be less efficient, because the average efficiency ratio is above 90 percent. Supardi Yanto | Nur Fatwa Basar | Sitti Muliana "Analysis of Budget Realization to Assess the Effectiveness and Efficiency of Performance in the Department of Tourism and Culture of Gowa Regency, South Sulawesi" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2 , February 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38597.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/accounting/38597/analysis-of-budget-realization-to-assess-the-effectiveness-and-efficiency-of-performance-in-the-department-of-tourism-and-culture-of-gowa-regency-south-sulawesi/supardi-yanto
The labor market continues to tighten as the economy grows. The Labor Department stated initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 276,000 in the week ending March 26, 2016. The four-week moving average was 263,250. The private sector added 200,000 jobs in March. 214,000 jobs were added to the
labor market in March, but revisions to the prior two months were blended, leading to a revision of - 1,000 net jobs. The unemployment rate edged up from 4.9% to 5.0% as the number of people in the labor force rose more than the number of people employed, showing that people have started to re-enter the
labor force as they gain more confidence in their ability to find employment.
The forthcoming Union Budget will be presented against the backdrop of heightened expecta- tions that the government would unravel reform-centric policies and action plan which would rejuvenate our growth drivers and transform the economy. In 2017, industry expects a reform- ist and visionary budget from the government. We would like to see a cut in corporate and personal income tax rates accompanied by higher public investments for which the resources will be made avail- able through various means such as disinvestment and asset recycling. The recent demonetisation of high value notes is expected to yield an increase in tax revenue as well as an increase in the tax base. Challenges such as slack domestic and global demand would need to be addressed, and urgent policy action is needed so that the economy can achieve a sustained and inclusive growth of around 8 per cent in the near future. On the domestic front, the contraction in industrial output in October 2016 is a matter of concern. How- ever, going forward, normal monsoons, which should improve rural demand, along with the lagged im- pact of interest rate reductions and 7th pay commission handouts are expected to cushion demand in the future and boost industrial activity. In a bright spot for the economy, both the inflation indices are ebbing down, providing relief to the policymakers. The softening of CPI and WPI inflation is attributed essentially to downward drift in the momentum of food prices assisted by favourable monsoon which has led to record food-grain output in the kharif season. The fall in prices could also be partly reflective of the demonetisation impact, which has led to lower demand in the economy due to a cash crunch. The moderate inflation scenario has rightly facilitated the RBI decision to retain the accommodative policy stance and will encourage RBI to further reduce rates. US Federal Reserve expectedly raised interest rate by 25 bps in first week of December 2016 — its first (and only) rate hike in 2016 and the second since the monetary policy normalization cycle began in December 2015. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judged that in light of realized and expected labour market conditions, as well as the progress on the inflation front, it was deemed ap- propriate to hike the Fed Funds rate. Given the resumption of the normalisation process, future policy moves are likely to be dependent on incoming data prints, which will remain critical. Any expansionary fiscal stimulus from the incoming regime at the White House may spur inflation, and cause a faster pace of rate hikes than anticipated.
The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50%, as expected, and the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members halved their median expectations of rate hikes in 2016 from four to two in their updated projections (see Figure 1). The Fed’s statement, projections and press conference had an undeniably cautious tone, with clear focus on global risks. The rally in US equities (to a new 2016-high) and 2-year rates (to a March low) and further depreciation in the dollar post meeting clearly indicate markets’ dovish interpretation (see Figure 2).
In 2009, Business Leaders for Michigan (BLM)
released the Michigan Turnaround Plan, a plan
on how to make Michigan a Top Ten state for
job, economic and personal income growth.
The Plan was updated in 2012 to identify the
six most distinctive assets Michigan had which
could be leveraged to accelerate growth.
These assets include the state’s engineering
prowess, geographic location, and world-class
higher education institutions, among others.
The 2013 New Michigan Report is the first in
an annual series in which Michigan’s progress
in leveraging its assets into economic growth
will be tracked. Michigan’s performance on
various metrics will be charted over time, and
compared to the results achieved in other
high-performing states.
This paper analysed the forecasting ability of yield-curve as a predictor of the short-run fluctuations in economic activities in Namibia. The study employed the techniques of unit root, cointegration, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition on the quarterly data covering the period 1996 to 2015. The results revealed a negative relationship between the term structure of interest rates and economic activities, though statistically insignificant. This suggests that the yield-curve has no forecasting ability as a predictor of economic activity in Namibia.
Forecasting real economic growth by using the information contents of financial asset prices is one of the main themes in financial studies in recent years. Based on the micro-level stock data from Shenzhen Stock Exchange Market, the paper constructs a cross-section volatility measure using sample stocks, investigates the impact of stock price volatility on economic growth, and forecasts economic growth with stock prices volatility of different firm size. The empirical results indicate that stock price volatility is a good indicator for forecasting economic growth. The results also show that volatility of both large and small firms can be useful in forecasting economic growth. In addition, volatility of small firms can better predict economic growth.
Variations or irregular rise of consumer price index worldwide of which Ghana is no exception has affected many businesses in the country. However, the obvious indicator of an inflationary situation is rising prices of consumer goods. On the basis of the above, the researchers decided to do a trend analysis on consumer price indices obtained from the Ghana Statistical Service to serve as a guide to the business community in Ghana. The main objective of the analysis is to determine the overall pattern in the data and to subsequently fit an appropriate trend for forecasting future values. The main statistical technique used in this work is time series analysis. Based on the trend analysis carried out, the study revealed that, there was general upward trend in the CPIs in Ghana, collaborating an earlier research conducted by Ampofo. However, the shapes of graphs of the CPIs, showed a slight difference. Finally, forecast values or predictions for the CPIs were made for the year 2008.
Economic and Financial Analysis of Real Estate / REIT Industry (2014 Class Pr...Alexander M. Stearns
In April 2014, I evaluated the economic and real estate industry conditions and compared the merits of 4 real estate investment trust (REIT) securities through business life cycles, key financials, and DuPont analysis. Attached is a 14p. sample of the 40p. report.
All technology is recruiting technology for real estate. But here are tools and tech that brokers can use to retain their best agents and bring new ones onboard.
Analysis of Budget Realization to Assess the Effectiveness and Efficiency of ...ijtsrd
This study aims to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the performance of the regional government of the Gowa Regency Tourism and Culture Office in 2017 2019. The types of data used in this research are qualitative and quantitative data. The data sources used are primary and secondary data. The analytical method used is descriptive quantitative. The results showed that the level of effectiveness of the Department of Tourism and Cultures budget management during the 2017 2019 fiscal year. can be said to be very effective, because by having an average effectiveness ratio above 100 . Meanwhile, the level of efficiency of budget management for the Tourism and Culture Office during the 2017 2019 fiscal year can be said to be less efficient, because the average efficiency ratio is above 90 percent. Supardi Yanto | Nur Fatwa Basar | Sitti Muliana "Analysis of Budget Realization to Assess the Effectiveness and Efficiency of Performance in the Department of Tourism and Culture of Gowa Regency, South Sulawesi" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2 , February 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38597.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/accounting/38597/analysis-of-budget-realization-to-assess-the-effectiveness-and-efficiency-of-performance-in-the-department-of-tourism-and-culture-of-gowa-regency-south-sulawesi/supardi-yanto
The labor market continues to tighten as the economy grows. The Labor Department stated initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 276,000 in the week ending March 26, 2016. The four-week moving average was 263,250. The private sector added 200,000 jobs in March. 214,000 jobs were added to the
labor market in March, but revisions to the prior two months were blended, leading to a revision of - 1,000 net jobs. The unemployment rate edged up from 4.9% to 5.0% as the number of people in the labor force rose more than the number of people employed, showing that people have started to re-enter the
labor force as they gain more confidence in their ability to find employment.
The forthcoming Union Budget will be presented against the backdrop of heightened expecta- tions that the government would unravel reform-centric policies and action plan which would rejuvenate our growth drivers and transform the economy. In 2017, industry expects a reform- ist and visionary budget from the government. We would like to see a cut in corporate and personal income tax rates accompanied by higher public investments for which the resources will be made avail- able through various means such as disinvestment and asset recycling. The recent demonetisation of high value notes is expected to yield an increase in tax revenue as well as an increase in the tax base. Challenges such as slack domestic and global demand would need to be addressed, and urgent policy action is needed so that the economy can achieve a sustained and inclusive growth of around 8 per cent in the near future. On the domestic front, the contraction in industrial output in October 2016 is a matter of concern. How- ever, going forward, normal monsoons, which should improve rural demand, along with the lagged im- pact of interest rate reductions and 7th pay commission handouts are expected to cushion demand in the future and boost industrial activity. In a bright spot for the economy, both the inflation indices are ebbing down, providing relief to the policymakers. The softening of CPI and WPI inflation is attributed essentially to downward drift in the momentum of food prices assisted by favourable monsoon which has led to record food-grain output in the kharif season. The fall in prices could also be partly reflective of the demonetisation impact, which has led to lower demand in the economy due to a cash crunch. The moderate inflation scenario has rightly facilitated the RBI decision to retain the accommodative policy stance and will encourage RBI to further reduce rates. US Federal Reserve expectedly raised interest rate by 25 bps in first week of December 2016 — its first (and only) rate hike in 2016 and the second since the monetary policy normalization cycle began in December 2015. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judged that in light of realized and expected labour market conditions, as well as the progress on the inflation front, it was deemed ap- propriate to hike the Fed Funds rate. Given the resumption of the normalisation process, future policy moves are likely to be dependent on incoming data prints, which will remain critical. Any expansionary fiscal stimulus from the incoming regime at the White House may spur inflation, and cause a faster pace of rate hikes than anticipated.
The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50%, as expected, and the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members halved their median expectations of rate hikes in 2016 from four to two in their updated projections (see Figure 1). The Fed’s statement, projections and press conference had an undeniably cautious tone, with clear focus on global risks. The rally in US equities (to a new 2016-high) and 2-year rates (to a March low) and further depreciation in the dollar post meeting clearly indicate markets’ dovish interpretation (see Figure 2).
In 2009, Business Leaders for Michigan (BLM)
released the Michigan Turnaround Plan, a plan
on how to make Michigan a Top Ten state for
job, economic and personal income growth.
The Plan was updated in 2012 to identify the
six most distinctive assets Michigan had which
could be leveraged to accelerate growth.
These assets include the state’s engineering
prowess, geographic location, and world-class
higher education institutions, among others.
The 2013 New Michigan Report is the first in
an annual series in which Michigan’s progress
in leveraging its assets into economic growth
will be tracked. Michigan’s performance on
various metrics will be charted over time, and
compared to the results achieved in other
high-performing states.
This paper analysed the forecasting ability of yield-curve as a predictor of the short-run fluctuations in economic activities in Namibia. The study employed the techniques of unit root, cointegration, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition on the quarterly data covering the period 1996 to 2015. The results revealed a negative relationship between the term structure of interest rates and economic activities, though statistically insignificant. This suggests that the yield-curve has no forecasting ability as a predictor of economic activity in Namibia.
Forecasting real economic growth by using the information contents of financial asset prices is one of the main themes in financial studies in recent years. Based on the micro-level stock data from Shenzhen Stock Exchange Market, the paper constructs a cross-section volatility measure using sample stocks, investigates the impact of stock price volatility on economic growth, and forecasts economic growth with stock prices volatility of different firm size. The empirical results indicate that stock price volatility is a good indicator for forecasting economic growth. The results also show that volatility of both large and small firms can be useful in forecasting economic growth. In addition, volatility of small firms can better predict economic growth.
Variations or irregular rise of consumer price index worldwide of which Ghana is no exception has affected many businesses in the country. However, the obvious indicator of an inflationary situation is rising prices of consumer goods. On the basis of the above, the researchers decided to do a trend analysis on consumer price indices obtained from the Ghana Statistical Service to serve as a guide to the business community in Ghana. The main objective of the analysis is to determine the overall pattern in the data and to subsequently fit an appropriate trend for forecasting future values. The main statistical technique used in this work is time series analysis. Based on the trend analysis carried out, the study revealed that, there was general upward trend in the CPIs in Ghana, collaborating an earlier research conducted by Ampofo. However, the shapes of graphs of the CPIs, showed a slight difference. Finally, forecast values or predictions for the CPIs were made for the year 2008.
Economic and Financial Analysis of Real Estate / REIT Industry (2014 Class Pr...Alexander M. Stearns
In April 2014, I evaluated the economic and real estate industry conditions and compared the merits of 4 real estate investment trust (REIT) securities through business life cycles, key financials, and DuPont analysis. Attached is a 14p. sample of the 40p. report.
All technology is recruiting technology for real estate. But here are tools and tech that brokers can use to retain their best agents and bring new ones onboard.
Versão preliminar do artigo sobre uso de técnicas de redes sociais em apoio a gestão de riscos de segurança da informação no universo dos dados públicos governamentais.
Discussion of 2017 china economic survey by Vincent Koen (OECD)HKUST IEMS
This seminar discussed the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of China, which assesses the country’s recent macroeconomic performance and proposes policy measures to promote higher-quality growth. The event was co-organized and discussed by The French Centre for Research on Contemporary China (CEFC), The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (IEMS).
For more information please visit: iems.ust.hk/cefc
Michigan’s University Research Corridor contributed $18.7 billion to the state economy in 2017, according to an Anderson Economic Group report released today. Up from $16.5 billion in 2015, the impact also marks an increase of 46 percent since 2007, the year the URC was formed and began benchmarking its impact on the state of Michigan. According to the report, the URC also generated 78,845 jobs in 2017.
The URC, an alliance of Michigan State University, the University of Michigan and Wayne State University, is one of the nation’s top research clusters and the engine for innovation in Michigan and the Great Lakes region, increasing economic prosperity and connecting Michigan to the world.
Trends and Emerging Market Opportunities in Continuing Educationdorothydurkin
This report aims to aggregate and build upon recent SCPS research in an effort to recognize the evolving CE environment and idetnify trends that can provide dynamic insight on issues and opportunities affecting SCPS today
Do you or your users need information on the South's unemployment, housing and more? We’ll share strategies to enhance expertise with finding essential resources about these timely topics. (Sponsored by GLA GIIG.) Presented at GaCOMO12 by Patricia Kenly and Bette Finn.
This is a recent report created by the Keystone Resource Center in HBG. It is amazingly timely based on the election. Please take a close look at the existing issues and resolutions at bare minimum
Appendix AHSM220 Version 31Associate Level MaterialAppe.docxrossskuddershamus
Appendix A
HSM/220 Version 3
1
Associate Level Material
Appendix A
Final Project Overview and Timeline
Final Project Overview
You are the executive director of an established not-for-profit, community-based organization provider that offers high-quality educational, vocational, and training services to various segments of the local population. In response to the increasing dropout rate of high school students in the local community and a worsening financial situation at the local school district, the organization is considering the opportunity to offer basic skills and vocational training programs in the community. The purpose of this new program is to equip high school dropouts with necessary skills needed to gain potential employment opportunities.
As an executive director, justify the reasoning behind this new program and develop a complete launch plan, including a budget and consideration of environmental factors. You must determine how data will be used to support the new program and consider human resources issues affecting this new program.
The organization has these issues to consider:
· The local economy situation is depressed due to steady job losses resulting from employers relocating to other cities and communities that offer better economic incentives to employers. As a result, local property taxes that support funding of high school programs have declined singifantly in recent years. The reduction has caused the local school district to lose significant financial resources to retain good teachers or fill vacant teachers’ positions.
· In the last two years the high school dropout rate had climbed to 15% from 5%. The local school district along with state agencies decided to sponsor and fund new training and vocational programs for high school dropouts in order to provide these high school dropouts with necessary skills needed to gain potential employment opportunities. The total funding available for this program is $1,600,000.
· The projected number of eligible high school dropout students in year one: 1,000
· The projected number of eligible high school dropout students in year two and thereafter: 2,000
· This organization needs to plan for the recruitment and hiring of experienced trainers and other highly skilled technical staff to start the proposed programs. The tight financial resources available makes finding qualified personnel a challenge. Also, after hiring the appropriate staff, it is critical for the executive director to think proactively in order to motivate the staff and use an appropriate appraisal and reward system.
· If the organization decides to provide these comprehensive training programs, the following financial data must be considered:
Operating Expenses:
Per Year
Rent
$125,000
Utilities
$100,000
Office supplies
$25,000
Equipment/lease
$50,000
Transportation and travel
$100,000
Outside consultants
$100,000
Overhead costs
$100,000
Personnel expenses:
Annu.
Good governance is essential for economic development as it enhances the effectiveness of economic policies undertaken by the government. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between governance and economic growth in Africa. Using the World Bank governance indicators we construct a composite index to resume all the indicators in one variable that will be used to measure the impact of governance on growth. The main result of this study is that a change in the governance index of a unit is likely to produce an increase of 1.7% in real GDP. This result seems to be extremely important considering the shortage of financial resources in Africa. Improving governance seems to be the best and the less expensive way the boost economic growth. Thus, African countries need to strengthen their economic efficiency by promoting results-based fiscal management, improving their doing business environment and investing in education to improve the quality of human factor.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Forecasters Club of New York.
In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase, in relation to the size of the economy, for the first time since 2009, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates. If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years, CBO projects. Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level.
To analyze the state of the budget in the long term, CBO has extrapolated its 10-year baseline projections an additional two decades. If current laws governing taxes and spending remain in place, the outlook for the budget would steadily worsen over the long term, with revenues falling well short of spending. CBO is in the process of completing a detailed update of its long-term projections; but in January the agency did a simplified update. On that basis, budget deficits are projected to rise steadily and federal debt held by the public is projected to exceed 130 percent of GDP by 2040.
To put the federal budget on a sustainable path for the long term, lawmakers would have to make major changes to tax policies, spending policies, or both – by reducing spending for large benefit programs below the projected amounts, letting revenues rise more than they would under current law, or adopting some combination of those approaches. The size of such changes would depend on the amount of federal debt that lawmakers considered appropriate.
Similar to aa0e51_cbf5440a85084bdc8ebe85ab3c4e46d7 (20)
1. Prepared by
New Haven Economic Performance Laboratory
in association with
Department of Economics, College of Business,
University of New Haven
Entrepreneurship and Innovation Program,
University of New Haven
Online at www.nhepl.org.
GREATER NEW HAVEN
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT
Fall 2016
2.
3. December, 2016
The Fall, 2016 edition of the Economic Activity Report, published by the New
Haven Economic Performance Laboratory, represents a collaborative and peda-
gogical effort by faculty and students of the Department of Economics. It contains
trustworthy and relevant socio-economic information and analysis that focuses
on the economic conditions in Connecticut and, in particular, the greater New
Haven Region. The Fall, 2016 report (as well as previous reports) can also be
found on the Laboratory’s website (www.nhepl.org).
This report contains a set of economic data series analyzed by Department
of Economics capstone students. Students were charged to instruct, inform
and evaluate a data series as a means by which to further their understanding
of economics as well as provide information services that can guide and inform
public policy initiatives. The University of New Haven student analysts of today
are the analysts on whom our future turns. Their names and e-mail addresses
are included. Please do not hesitate to contact them.
Also included in this report are certain indices and analyses jointly developed
by faculty and students. Of particular note are the New Haven Regional Economic
Performance Index and a Shift-Share and Random Forest Analysis specifically
examining the New Haven Region. The objective of the foregoing is to fill the
gap created by official government statistics, which reflects the strengths of
our program in Data Analytics and Behavioral Economics.
In addition to visiting the Laboratory’s website, you are invited to visit another
student initiative that involves posts, commentary and noteworthy contributions
from students, faculty, alumni and members of the broader community: The
University of New Haven Economics Collective (http://unheconomicscollective.
ning.com). The Collective, as it is affectionately known, is a thought-leadership
and learning space that fosters the integration of theory, technical competencies,
real-life learning and communication skills.
Kind regards,
Brian T. Kench, Ph.D.
Dean, College of Business
Executive Summary..............................................2
New Haven Region
Economic Performance Index...............................3
The Connecticut Value Index................................5
Housing...............................................................6
Labor Force, Manufacturing
Employment and Unemployment.........................7
Gross Domestic Product
and Consumer Price Index...................................9
Conclusion: A Connecticut Assessment
“The Forest from the Trees”................................10
A Collective from the Collective.........................12
About the Laboratory.........................................13
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT 1
4. General economic conditions continue to improve in Connecticut and the New Haven Region as they do for the nation. The New Haven Region’s
performance improvement, however, continues to lag other states in New England and the nation. The improvement is far from robust, as is evident
by the interpretation of the data reflected in the New Haven Region Economic Performance Index as well as information pertaining to housing,
employment, unemployment, gross domestic product and consumer prices.
While it has been suggested by many that a reduction in corporate taxes could reverse the State of Connecticut’s anemic performance, our
Winter 2016 Report called for a renewed emphasis on entrepreneurship and the importance of establishing priorities to address the improving,
yet mixed, state of affairs. The Opportunity Share of New Entrepreneurs of the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurship identified Connecticut’s notice-
able difference in performance to its neighbors. Connecticut continues to underperform. We continue to encourage a multi-pronged approach:
tax policy alone is not the answer.The recent Connecticut legislative initiatives related to entrepreneurship, which, among other things, encourage
partnerships between the public and private sectors with the academic community, could bolster Connecticut’s position as an entrepreneurial
and innovation-friendly place. The same can be said for the City of New Haven, which continues to create local initiatives. The city of New Haven
also recently received a CTNext grant from the State of Connecticut for purposes of establishing the city as an “innovative place.” The focus of the
grant is to formulate a strategic plan that could ultimately make the city eligible for other grants so as to recruit, attract, and expand the technology
sector of the local economy.
Of course, further complicating matters from a national perspective as well as a local perspective are the policies and programs that could result
from a Trump Administration, none of which has been rolled into this report.
Executive Summary
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT2
5. Comments should be directed to Esin Cakan, Ph.D. at ecakan@newhaven.edu.
The New Haven Region Economic Performance Index (the “NHREP Index”) gauges the performance of the economy for the southern part of the
State of Connecticut, specifically, the region around and including New Haven County.As illustrated in Figure 1, below, the NHREP Index reflects
data as of September, 2016.The NHREP Index increased by 1.35% from the previous month and 20% from the previous year; the index was
98.02 as of September, 2016.
Figure 1
The NHREP Index is constructed with five (5)
components: The Federal Reserve Monthly Lead-
ing Index for Connecticut (FED Leading Index –
CT); Connecticut Initial Claims for Unemployment
Benefits; New Haven Building Permits; Average
Weekly Hours of Work of New Haven Employees;
and Average Weekly Earnings of all New Haven
Employees. Unlike the Winter 2016 report, unem-
ployment claims and housing permits were not
a drag on the index; earnings continue to improve
from last spring (see Note, below, Average Weekly
Wages for Employees). The Federal Reserve’s Con-
necticut Leading Index continues to be a drag on
the index.
Table 1
Percent Change from
Previous Month
Percent Change from
Previous Year
NHREP Index 1.4% 20.0%
FED Leading Index — CT -1.2% -67.0%
Initial Claims Unemployment Benefits — CT 9.6% 17.0%
Building Permits — New Haven 39.0% 19.0%
Average Weekly Hours of Work Employees — New Haven 0.0% 0.0%
Average Weekly Earnings Employees — New Haven 1.3% 3.35%
Similar to the Winter 2016 report, the NHREP Index forecast, at least directionally, indicates continued improvement in the economy, an expanding
economy, notwithstanding General Electric’s departure from Fairfield, Connecticut; the NHREP Index portends weaknesses in the economy as we
head to spring 2017, however.
Table 2
Month Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
Apr
2016
May
2016
Jun
2016
Jul
2016
Aug
2016
Sep
2016
Oct
2016
Nov
2016
Dec
2016
Jan
2017
Feb
2017
Mar
2017
Forecast 96.5 83.4 88.7 97.6 95.8 98.3 97.5 96.7 98.0 98.2 103.6 107.8 116.6 110.2 105.3
New Haven Region Economic Performance Index
15.0
35.0
55.0
75.0
95.0
115.0
Jul-‐06
Nov-‐07
Mar-‐09
Aug-‐10
Dec-‐11
May-‐13
Sep-‐14
Jan-‐16
Jun-‐17
New
Haven
Region
Economic
Performance
Index
(Jan
2007
=
100)
INDEX
6
Month
Forecast
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT 3
6. Note: Average Weekly Wages for Employees
Comments should be directed to Jurgena Hysolli at jhyso1@unh.newhaven.edu.
The average weekly wages for employees working in private establishments in the New Haven-Milford, Connecticut metropolitan statistical area
is seasonally adjusted. Figure 2, below, shows that these wages have steadily increased (albeit with variability month-to-month) since the Great
Recession through 2015, the last official reported data. Extrapolating from national earnings trends where the typical full-time employee in the
United States achieved an all-time high in the third quarter of 2016 (according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), Connecticut,
once the data is reported, may show marginal increases in wages for 2016, especially given the suggestion that the labor market could be tight-
ening as a result of a positive economic performance, at least through the holiday season. Preliminary results, although not seasonally adjusted,
associated with average weekly earnings, weekly hours and hourly earnings show nominal increases. If, however, as the NHREP Index suggests,
a softening in the economy occurs in late spring, 2017, we can expect wages to fall.
Figure 2
About the Average Weekly Wages for Employees in Private Establishments in New Haven-Milford, CT (MSA): Data are from the Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED data (https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/).
In sum, the NHREP Index suggests continued expansion in the region’s economy, at least in the near term. The longer-term forecast, however,
suggests weaknesses.
About the Performance Index: All data are seasonally-adjusted and modified for differences in prices levels where appropriate. Data are from
the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED data (https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/).
835.0
885.0
935.0
985.0
1035.0
1085.0
Oct-‐05
Mar-‐07
Jul-‐08
Dec-‐09
Apr-‐11
Aug-‐12
Jan-‐14
May-‐15
Average
Weekly
Wages:
New
Haven-‐Milford
MSA
Quarterly
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT4
7. Comments should be directed to Esin Cakan, Ph.D., at ecakan@newhaven.edu.
The Connecticut Value Index (CVI) is a rudimentary
market capitalization, trading-volume-weighted
price index that illustrates the economic value con-
centrations in Southern Connecticut. Figure 3, below,
displays the performance of the CVI alongside the
S&P 500 for the period 2010Q1 through 2016Q4.
It should be noted that the data and its interpre-
tation may be skewed. That is, companies head-
quartered in Connecticut fail to exactly represent
the state of affairs in Connecticut. For example,
AETNA and United Technologies are global
businesses with valuation and market capitaliza-
tion dependent upon more than Connecticut’s
economy in isolation.
The observable data continues to show greater
CVI volatility vis-à-vis the S&P 500. In addition,
the movement of one or a few very large stocks
and/or very large short-term movements could
explain the short-term volatility of the CVI.Thus,
the smaller numbers in the CVI may explain all,
or part, of the observed difference in variability
between the two indexes. In short, it is entirely
plausible that the performance is not related to
anything endemic to Connecticut-based compa-
nies. However, the broader question of whether the
economic environment in Connecticut handicaps its
private sector is worth examining in greater detail.
The CVI-related data, as reflected in Figure 4,
identifies certain locations, cities and towns as
more prominent in economic value than oth-
ers, most notably Norwalk, Stamford, Danbury,
Cheshire and Greenwich.
In particular, the presence of these companies, the
social value they generate, and the derivative benefits associated with both their utilization of factors of production as well as their output constitute
important elements in the domestic discourse of our state and our region. Figure 4 displays the map of Connecticut with several towns distinguished
by varying shades of red.This representation conveys an understanding of the geographic distribution of the CVI’s constituent firms.The fact that a
city or town is shown identifies it as the home base of one (or several) of the CVI’s constituent firms.The shade of red provides the same information
enhanced to reflect the specific amount of market capitalization associated with the particular firm or firms in each city or town, as the case may be.
As compared to the Spring, 2016 Report, there does not appear to be any change in results.
About the Connecticut Value Index: The data are the sum of trading-volume-weighted stock price data for a sample of forty-two (42) publicly traded
stocks of Connecticut corporate headquartered companies or companies with significant operations within Connecticut traded on the New York Stock
Exchange or quoted on NASDAQ, consolidated on a monthly basis.The formulation and components of this index were part of a faculty-student research
project, along with the insights and assistance of Murat Akgun, David Sacco, Carolyn Cebrian, and John Rosen (MCAworks), who provided concise and
persuasive analyses and explanations associated with limitations and pitfalls of small numbers.
The Connecticut Value Index
Figure 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010m
01
2010m
07
2011m
01
2011m
07
2012m
01
2012m
07
2013m
01
2013m
07
2014m
01
2014m
07
2015m
01
2015m
07
2016m
01
2016m
07
S&P
500
CT
Value
Index
CT
Value
Index
CT
Value
Index
S&P
500
Figure 4
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT 5
8. 72.0
77.0
82.0
87.0
92.0
97.0
102.0
Oct-‐05
Mar-‐07
Jul-‐08
Dec-‐09
Apr-‐11
Aug-‐12
Jan-‐14
May-‐15
Housing
Prices
(2006:1
=
100)
S&P/Case-‐Shiller
U.S.
NaHonal
Home
Price
Index
All-‐TransacHons
House
Price
Index
for
New
Haven-‐Milford
Comments should be directed to Steven Gillette at sgill3@unh.newhaven.edu.
As previously reported in the Winter, 2016 report, the All Transactions Housing Price Indices were constructed for Connecticut, New England and
the United States, as well as the neighboring states of New York, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The report concluded that Connecticut was
underperforming, but showing signs of recovery. Figure 5, below, illustrates the New Haven-Milford, Connecticut housing price index from the first
quarter of 2009 through the second quarter of 2016, as well as the U.S. National Home Price Index for the same period. The Great Recession
is also identified in the figure (2008Q1 – 2009Q3).
Housing
Figure 5
During the recession, both the New Haven-Milford and the National Housing Price Indexes declined 13.4% and 13.5%, respectively.The decline
continued through 2011; 21.2% for New Haven-Milford Housing Price Index since the start of the Great Recession in 2008Q1 and 27.5% for
the National Housing Price Index. Since 2012, the National Housing Price Index has shown a significant increase — approximately 33.2% —
while the New Haven-Milford Housing Index appears to have remained stagnant. As previously noted, 2013-2014 marked the first time in
decades that Connecticut experienced a decline in its resident population, while neighboring states have not. Departure from the state could
be indicative of a broader problem for Connecticut: residents are finding greater economic opportunities elsewhere. Further compounding the
situation may be businesses re-evaluating operations in Connecticut (such as General Electric Corporation) as a result of higher costs of living,
regulatory burdens and personal taxes and perceived absence of information technology oriented human capital. The overall impact could be
a continued soft housing market for sellers.
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT6
9. Comments should be directed to Sean P. Kingsepp at sking3@unh.newhaven.edu,Vanessa Lopez at vlope2@unh.newhaven.edu, and Miles
Mortali at mmort4@unh.newhaven.edu.
The employment data series, Figure 6, below, represents seasonally adjusted employment levels in the New Haven region. It does not include farm
workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. The civilian labor force population represents a measure of those over
the age of 16 who are working or are available to work in a particular area or region. Specifically, it is the sum of civilian employment and civilian
unemployment. Labor participation in Connecticut appears to be lagging the nation, although, as previously reported, New Haven appears to show
minimal improvement.
The New Haven region was significantly and adversely affected by the Great Recession. While there is evidence of a recovery, Connecticut
and New Haven appears to lag other New England states. Compounding the situation is the continued decline in manufacturing employment,
as illustrated in Figure 7, below.
Figure 6
Labor Force – Manufacturing Employment
263.0
268.0
273.0
278.0
283.0
288.0
Sep-‐05
Jan-‐07
Jun-‐08
Oct-‐09
Feb-‐11
Jul-‐12
Nov-‐13
Apr-‐15
Aug-‐16
Employees:
New
Haven
(in
thousands)
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
Oct-‐05
Mar-‐07
Jul-‐08
Dec-‐09
Apr-‐11
Aug-‐12
Jan-‐14
May-‐15
Oct-‐16
Manufacturing
Employment:
New
Haven
(in
thousands)
Figure 7
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT 7
10. As indicated in Figure 8, below, while there was a dramatic decline as a result of the Great Recession, the decline continues, notwithstanding economic
expansion, which suggests a continued transformation of the local economy away from its human-oriented manufacturing legacy.
It should be noted that, by March 2011, the entirety of New England unemployment dropped below 8.0%, with Connecticut and New England finally
hitting that threshold in March and July, 2013, respectively (see Figure 8, below).As of August 2016, New Haven unemployment hovered around 5.4%,
marginally better than Connecticut’s overall unemployment of 5.7%, which still remained above the rest of New England, which sat at 4.2%. In October,
2016, Connecticut’s unemployment rate stood at 5.1%.
The future remains uncertain, as suggested by the NHREP Index forecast. It is interesting to note that New Haven’s and Connecticut’s unemployment
rate could decline and align with its neighboring New England states, which may not suggest good economic news should the population dynamics
previously noted in this report hold.That is, civilian labor force population and participation rates could shift because of the absence of opportunities
in Connecticut.
Unemployment
Figure 8
3.9
4.9
5.9
6.9
7.9
8.9
9.9
Oct-‐05
Mar-‐07
Jul-‐08
Dec-‐09
Apr-‐11
Aug-‐12
Jan-‐14
May-‐15
Oct-‐16
Unemployment
Rate
(%)
New
England
New
Haven
ConnecLcut
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT8
11. Comments should be directed to David Ortone at dorto1@unh.newhaven.edu and Nathan J. Pitruzzello at npitr1@unh.newhaven.edu.
As reflected in Figure 9, below, prices in the NY-NJ-CT-PA area, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, edged up 0.2
percent for the second consecutive month in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.The index for all items less food and energy
(Core CPI) went up 0.1 percent in September and 1.6 percent for the year. Prices for education and communication increased 0.4 percent, with the
cost of medical care up 5.8% from the past year. Increases in medical care could significantly impact low-income individuals and families who are
uninsured or significantly impact compensating mechanisms to cover such care, especially given that New Haven County has 13% of its population
living below the poverty line.
As reflected in Figure 10, below, Real Gross Domestic Product for Connecticut since the Great Recession has shown improvement consistent
with the nation. Connecticut’s performance, however, remains fragile and, as previously reported, lags New England, in general.
Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
Oct-‐05
Mar-‐07
Jul-‐08
Dec-‐09
Apr-‐11
Aug-‐12
Jan-‐14
May-‐15
Oct-‐16
Consumer
Price
Index
(NY-‐NJ-‐CT-‐PA)
All
Items
Less
Energy
All
Items
-‐25000
-‐20000
-‐15000
-‐10000
-‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
Oct-‐05
Mar-‐07
Jul-‐08
Dec-‐09
Apr-‐11
Aug-‐12
Jan-‐14
May-‐15
Oct-‐16
Real
Gross
DomesAc
Product
Change
from
Year
Ago
(millions
of
dollars)
Figure 10
Figure 9
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT 9
12. Conclusion: A Connecticut Assessment
The Forest from the Trees
Comments should be directed to Armando E. Rodriguez, Ph.D. at arodriguez@newhaven.edu and Brian A. Marks, J.D., Ph.D., at bmarks@newhaven.edu.
The blood sport of state economic performance rankings often drives relative state performance comparison pronouncements and policy prescriptions.
Index construction, which forms the basis for such rankings, as well as the associated analyses, frequently reflect an author’s agenda; that is, the index
builder selects variables, aggregation methodologies and procedures, and timeframes to shape or assist the preferred narrative based upon a sem-
blance of economic reasonableness. Connecticut performs poorly on almost all economic performance rankings, even on those indexes constructed
by Connecticut itself. For 2015, the State of Connecticut ranked 38th in the State Economic Index.
A poor position in the rankings typically and easily elicits an accusatory finger at the politician in charge. In fact,The Wall Street Journal slammed
Democratic Governor Dannel Malloy while hailing Rhode Island’s Democratic Governor Gina Raimondo, based upon the Tax Foundation’s state ranking
of business climates. Even though Connecticut ranked better than Rhode Island (by one place),The Wall Street Journal characterized Rhode Island’s
trajectory as more business friendly, including noting that its GDP “surpassed every state in New England, save Massachusetts,” and added that Gover-
nor Malloy cannot say he will not raise taxes, which Governor Raimondo has stated she will not do.The inference drawn from The Wall Street Journal’s
characterization of the State of Connecticut vis-à-vis its New England brethren is that a change in tax policy will change performance and, thus, the
state’s associated ranking. (A change in tax policy could change performance, but not necessarily rankings, as Connecticut cannot assume its brethren
will not make similar adjustments.)
A shift-share analysis using Connecticut data and national data provides a basis for evaluating Connecticut performance vis-à-vis the nation.The
objective was to eliminate national influences for purposes of identifying and targeting local trends.The particular focus for this report is the New
Haven Region and employment performance for certain sectors from June 2009, which marked the end of the Great Recession, through September
2016.At its most elementary, the analysis allows us to interpret change in a particular economic variable, in this case, regional jobs, as the sum
of three components: (i) National Growth; (ii) Industry Mix; and (iii) Regional Shift component.The foregoing is represented as follows:
Actual Job Losses = (National + Industry Mix) + Regional,
where (National + Industry Mix) constitutes the expected job performance and, thus, a basis against which to compare our regional performance.This
analytical framework potentially provides an identification of sector-specific comparative advantage for the New Haven Region.The regional component
constitutes the balance of job losses or gains after the national and industry-mix component.The national and industry components are the Expected
Jobs portion of the analysis.The regional performance is the residual.
For illustrative purposes, we found that, in the Education and Health Services sector, employment increased 16.3% nationally and 5.8% regionally; there
were 71,700 jobs in this sector in the region at the outset of the period. Nationally, employment grew by 10.77%. Based upon national growth (a rising
tide lifts all boats), an additional 7,720 jobs would have been expected in the region. From a sector-specific perspective, taking into account the national
growth rate, the Education and Health Services growth rate would project, for the New Haven region, an increase in 3,961 jobs.To arrive at the sector-
specific growth rate, the national growth rate is subtracted from the sector-specific growth rate (16.295% - 10.77%); thus, the New Haven region sector-
specific growth rate is 5.525%. In light of the foregoing, we would expect a regional performance increase of 11,681 jobs (7,720 + 3,961) as opposed
to an increase of 5,800 jobs, representing a shortfall of 5,881 (5,800 – 11,681).The following table and chart, Figure 11, right, summarizes the results:
Sector Expected Regional
Mining, Logging & Construction 964 236
Manufacturing 1,283 (5,483)
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 4,691 (991)
Education & Health Services 11,684 (5,884)
Information (45) (3,255)
Leisure & Hospitality 4,095 (1,495)
Professional & Business Services 5,819 1,881
Other Services 677 (477)
Government (566) (10,934)
Net Total 28,602 (26,202)
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT10
13. It is universally recognized that entrepreneurship and innovation are key to Connecticut’s and the New Haven Region’s economic and financial future
and viability.We can move beyond casual and simplistic observations and rankings, and scrutinize the data for purposes of directing and targeting
public policy in a manner that fosters economic development and growth (without regard to ranking).While the shift-share analysis is not disposi-
tive because it (i) is a comparative static analysis susceptible to the period selected, (ii) does not consider intermediate period variations, and (iii)
ignores changes in sector structure, competitive intensity and level of regional employment, it is suggestive of a fundamental problem for the State
of Connecticut: each sector in the State of Connecticut did worse than expected, which points to a generalized problem in the state across all sec-
tors.A study by Rodriguez and Marks (preliminary in nature) using Random Forests machine learning techniques, a non-parametric algorithm, and
Shapley Value Regression style algorithm for the period 2004 through 2014 identified several important drivers and associated cumulative impact
on employment growth for Connecticut. It is interesting to note that the minimum wage and the corporate marginal tax rate, a major point of empha-
sis in critiques of Connecticut’s competitiveness, may have a negligible influence on relative performance. If this is the case, public policy attention
should be focused on something other than corporate tax rates, such as other costs of doing business in the state that could hamper the engine
of innovation and entrepreneurship.
Figure 11
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT 11
14. The University of New Haven Economics Collective is an online space for faculty, students and business professionals to connect by sharing content,
whether it be report analysis, political commentary or anything else on their mind. Members are able to comment on each other’s posts, creating
a meaningful and enriching dialogue that extends beyond the classroom. On the Collective, all members are economists, whether the poster is a
freshman student or Nobel Prize winner.The lines of stature are blurred through the medium of the internet, lending to a more thoughtful and genu-
ine discussion.These moments of connectivity construct social capital, which helps build the Economics Department as more than a department
of the University of New Haven, but rather a community that cares for one another beyond the academic setting.The Collective has already been
used as a method of surveying, and will be in the future to further employ the method of using the wisdom of crowds.The following selections are
just a glimpse of content shared on the Collective. Benjamin Atwater, a student who minors in Economics, serves as the Student Executive Director
of the Collective. Comments should be directed to Benjamin at batwa1@unh.newhaven.edu.
The Italian Referendum: The Next Step for the EU: “As the EU continues its unsettling rounds of referendums and elections, it is now bracing
for Italy’s constitutional referendum on December 4. This referendum is not about the EU but simply about changing the constitution to make the
government less prone to deadlocks. So, why a concern? Simply, because the referendum ‘has […] become a confidence vote on the government.’
Matteo Renzi, the Prime Minister, has suggested that he would step down if the ‘no’ vote were to prevail. Meanwhile, the rising populist 5-Star Move-
ment has vowed to organize a referendum on Italy remaining in the euro-zone should it come into power.” — CC
http://unheconomicscollective.ning.com/blog/the-upcoming-test-for-the-eu-the-italian-referendum
New Haven Employment: “Throughout the last 60 years, New Haven’s Economic Climate has been changing from a mainly manufacturing based
economy to one dominated by health, business and financial services, most of this transformation happening in the last 10 years. The city’s
economy benefits from being equidistant from New York and Boston. I decided to take data from after the 2008 financial crisis, to show the con-
stant growth in the area. One major event that impacted the region was the moving of General Electric to Boston. On one hand, this could lead
to job loss in the New Haven Region, but fortunately, the economy is changing, so hopefully the region can rely on the shift into health, business
and financial services. My projection shows steady increase over the following years, but this doesn’t account for GE’s move. I predict a slight
decrease with a big jobs increase immediately following.” — MM
http://unheconomicscollective.ning.com/blog/new-haven-employment-necta
Does Globalization Create Easier Security Breach?: “Apple has recently reported that it has enabled Apple in Japan. This comes a couple
weeks after making the same announcement for Russia. Overall, Apple has over 12 countries that use this technology for contact-less pay. One
key characteristic about these countries is that they are all developed countries. Therefore, we see them maintaining the most up to date tech-
nology and sharing the highest technological qualities of life not found in developing countries. With that, it can be assumed to see the latest
consumer technology in the USA, in those countries as well.” — KP
http://unheconomicscollective.ning.com/blog/does-globalization-create-easier-security-breach
Election’s Effect on the Economy: “With the upcoming election, people have been in a slight panic with the presidential candidates and what
is going to happen to the economy in the United States. Businesses of all kinds have started to say that the upcoming election has affected their
business, some for the positive and some for the negative. In the article, commercial real estate brokers said the election was causing businesses
to hold off on new office leases, and auto dealers said the results could determine how many people buy cars.” — SS
http://unheconomicscollective.ning.com/blog/the-election-s-effect-on-the-economy-doughnut-sales-are-probably-
Environmental Policy Heavy in New Godzilla Flick: “Shin Godzilla might be the best Godzilla film made since the 1954 film. Shin is certainly the
most similar in tone and execution. The political environment is very heavily present. Rather than nuclear weapons giving Godzilla his invulnerability,
this Godzilla has fed off nuclear waste dumped into the waters of Tokyo Bay, bringing in a whole new timely issue. This element makes it a strong
commentary on the recent Fukushima disaster, where an earthquake caused the biggest nuclear meltdown since Chernobyl in 2011. With this
nuclear threat still felt by the Japanese people, Shin Godzilla is incredibly timely, just as Gojira was after the Lucky Dragon incident. The characters
of the government are very well fleshed out, as each person is working on different ways to bring Godzilla down as well as crisis management and
evacuation plans, which were needed for the Fukushima response.” — BA
http://unheconomicscollective.ning.com/blog/environmental-nuclear-policy-heavy-in-new-godzilla-flick
A Collection from the Collective
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT12
15. About the New Haven Economic Performance Laboratory
The Southern Connecticut Economic Activity Report (www.nhepl.org) is a publication of the Department of Economics,
College of Business, University of New Haven, 300 Boston Post Road, West Haven, Connecticut 06516.
The Research Staff are upperclassmen and -women in the Department of Economics. Although each student works under the auspices of
the Supervising Faculty and Research Directors, each student is individually responsible for interpreting and analyzing the data. The Laboratory
is a teaching space, and this report reflects a product of that space. In addition, staff members work closely with the University of New Haven
Economic Collective (http://unheconomicscollective.ning.com), which brings together students, faculty, alumni and members of the broader
community, to foster a meaningful and relevant exchange of ideas. A fundamental focus of the Laboratory: to formulate, construct and examine
non-traditional socioeconomic metrics applicable to the Southern Region of Connecticut by employing traditional empirical methods as well as
data and text mining methods.
The New Haven Economic Performance Laboratory is affiliated with the University of New Haven Department of Economics and the Entrepreneur-
ship and Innovation Program. Any opinions contained herein are not to be construed as reflecting the opinion of the University of New Haven, its
College of Business, or the Entrepreneurship and Innovation Program. The printing of the report is funded by the College of Business. Should you
be interested in supporting this student initiative in collaboration with faculty, please contact Ms. Mary F. Murphy, Director, Office of Development,
University of New Haven, at mfmurphy@newhaven.edu or 203.932.7174.
Research Staff (2016–2017)
Steven Gillette
Jurgena Hysolli
Sean P. Kingsepp
Vanessa Lopez
Miles Mortali
David A. Ortone
Nathan J. Pitruzzello
Executive and Technical Support
Kathleen Mazzeo
Benjamin Atwater
Benjamin F. Miles
Supervising Faculty and Research Directors
Esin Cakan, Ph.D., Associate Professor
Claude Chereau, Ph.D., Practitioner-in-Residence
Molly Jacobs, Ph.D., Visiting Assistant Professor
Brian A. Marks, J.D., Ph.D., Practitioner-in-Residence
Armando E. Rodriquez, Ph.D., Associate Professor
Kamal Upadhyaya, Ph.D., Professor
Administration and Editorial Board
Armando E. Rodriguez, Ph.D., Chair,
Department of Economics
Brian A. Marks, J.D., Ph.D., Executive Director,
Entrepreneurship and Innovation Program
GREATER NEW HAVEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REPORT 13