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A Vision of the Auto
Industry Circa 2025
With increasingly autonomous capabilities and a declining
interest in ownership, the industry needs to focus on in-transit
innovation, purpose-driven design and a transition to a service-
based business model.
THE ROAD TO 2025
June 2017
2 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025
The Road to 2025
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
By 2025, consumer expectations for every facet of mobility will soar, including how they
drive. Customer preferences for the automobile experience – both pre- and post-sale – will
impact not only overall demand for car ownership but also the specific features and
experiences automakers build into their products and services. Two major shifts that will
define the automotive landscape between now and 2025 are the inevitable (and phased)
embrace of autonomous vehicles and the spread of the sharing economy.
Some autonomous vehicle functions are already available from high-end car makers, such
as lane assist, adaptive cruise control and self-parking. Others, such as Nissan and Ford,
have begun cascading these features into their larger volume, mass-targeted vehicles.
While some of these capabilities, such as navigation and auto emergency calling, will be
commonplace by 2025, more advanced telematics-based features, such as intelligent
parking and features aimed at improving convenience for end-consumers, will differentiate
leading from lagging car manufacturers (see Quick Take, page 4). This is where we believe
OEMs will need to focus.
Increasingly, customers will focus not on product features but on the convenience and
experience the car offers, and OEMs must do the same. Winning manufacturers will focus
on software-driven and customizable aspects of car design, with the mechanical parts
increasingly outsourced. OEMs must strike a careful balance between retaining the
know-how to prevent lock-in with Tier 1 suppliers, while simultaneously fostering an agile,
digitally-driven environment to keep pace with the enabling technology for feature sets.
Meanwhile, consumers have developed a high level of comfort with the idea of sharing
rather than owning a vehicle, and this trend will only accelerate – impacting sales volumes
(see Figure 1, next page).1
In response, OEMs will need to embrace more flexible business
and operating models, form personal relationships with consumers and partners, and
3A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 |
The Road to 2025
build or participate in collaborative platforms marked by open application programming
interfaces (APIs).
In the face of both these trends, the daily commute is fast-changing into an end-to-end
“mobility experience,” conducted via a collaborative platform. The industry value chain will
shift from the traditional supplier-OEM-dealer model, to an interconnected ecosystem of
multiple players, including technology companies, infrastructure providers, mobility service
providers, utilities and traffic management entities. Players in this ecosystem will need to
define their own value proposition and then form partnerships to build and deliver truly
differentiated products and services.
OEMs will also need to develop trusted
relationships directly with customers.
Reaching and engaging with consumers
across new channels will become
increasingly important to OEMs and the
mobility experiences that will define
success by 2025.
This paper details three imperatives we
believe are essential for the future success
of all participants in the auto industry by
2025: In-transit innovation will need to
become a major differentiator; demand will
shift toward vehicles designed for a specific
purpose; and auto OEMs will need to
transform into original service providers
(OSPs). By taking action in all three areas,
the auto industry can set itself up for success in the next decade and beyond.
Sharing, Not Growing
Worldwide forecast
(percentage growth)
Shared cars*
As % of total on road
Vehicle production
% change from a year earlier
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2015 2020 2025 2030
*Including taxis, excluding car rental
Figure 1
Source: Morgan Stanley, as depicted in The Economist
QUICK TAKE
Accelerating Into the Fast Lane
Electric car company Faraday Future unveiled a “new species” of car at the CES 2017 in
Las Vegas: an electric sedan with, among other features, the ability to park itself, even
without the driver in it. Other vehicles that similarly fall into the “Level 2” category of
autonomous cars (see Figure 2) are rolling off the assembly line at higher price points than
less sophisticated models; before long, they will be available at sub-$30,000 price points.
Consumers will quickly come to expect these features, just as they do with Bluetooth
and backup cameras. OEMs that don’t have an evolving, high-quality offering of semi-
autonomous capabilities in the pipeline will quickly lose even their most loyal customers
to competitors that do.
The Autonomous Vehicle Evolution
Level 0 The driver controls everything inside the vehicle – steering, brakes, throttle, power.
Level 1
The driver mostly has control over everything, but some specific functions are performed
automatically by the car, such as steering, accelerating.
Level 2
The car includes at least one automated driver assistance system for steering and
acceleration/deceleration, using information about the driving environment. The driver
must still always be ready to take control of the vehicle when needed.
Level 3
Drivers are still necessary, but critical safety functions can be completely shifted to
the vehicle.
Level 4
Fully autonomous, vehicles are designed to perform all critical safety driving functions and
monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip.
Level 5
A fully-autonomous system enables the vehicle to perform at the same level as a human
driver, in every driving scenario. Care are developed without steering wheels or pedals.
Figure 2
The Road to 2025
| A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 20254
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IN A DRIVERLESS WORLD, IN-TRANSIT INNOVATION
WILL DEFINE MARKET LEADERSHIP
By 2020, the percentage of new cars shipped with Internet connectivity is expected
to rise from 13% in 2015 to 75% in 2020, according to BI Intelligence,2
and connected
cars will account for 22% of all vehicles on the road (not just new cars), up from 10%
in 2015, according to McKinsey  Co.3
Ten million cars with self-driving features will be
on the roads in that timeframe, as well. 4
Whereas autonomous vehicles were at the Level 2 stage in 2017 (see Figure 2), the technology and
infrastructure will mature by 2025 to enable Level 4 and 5 autonomous vehicles to become more
prevalent. Not only will this lead to increased personal productivity for car occupants, who will be free
to spend their transit time focusing on activities other than driving, but it will also impact the interior
design of the car (see Figure 3).
New entrants to the automotive ecosystem could provide in-car services to extend OEMs’ core offer-
ings. Consumer-focused companies such as Apple or Amazon, which are already building an ecosystem
of products and services for autonomous vehicles, could enter the mainstream automobile business,
as could hospitality-focused companies that augment their offerings with in-vehicle services. As this
ecosystem evolves, an array of new mobility products and services will emerge, centered on the in-car
customer experience.
Artist Rendering of Autonomous Car Interior
Figure 3
IMPERATIVE
#1
| A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 20256
Expert, Advisor and Mechanic
The evolution of such disruptive technologies may well result in cars that autonomously sense, inter-
pret, decide, act and communicate with other automobiles, infrastructures, businesses, people and
devices. As vehicles become progressively more intuitive, cognitive and autonomous, they will impact
how automobile users interact with society and service providers. The car will become integral to
many daily life activities: receiving notifications on needed groceries, meeting reminders, restaurant
reservations, multi-channel communications, even receiving shipments on consumer orders delivered
directly to the vehicle.
Intelligent vehicles may also play a more proactive role in predicting, detecting and diagnosing equip-
ment failures, as well as performing corrective interventions.5
Other capabilities will include the
triaging of damage and repairs on-the-fly following a collision. From a product definition perspective,
this would require increased maturity of the Internet of Things and in-vehicle telemetry communica-
tions with insurers, service providers and infrastructures.
These advancements will have a variety of implications for the industry value chain:
•	 OEMs and suppliers: The mainstreaming of autonomous cars will force OEMs to rethink and
redesign how they develop cars. The car of the future will be connected with a gamut of services
and infrastructure facilities that consumers will use on a daily basis. This will require OEMs to
collaborate with traffic control, public utility services, infrastructure providers, telecom service
providers, telemetry equipment providers, as well as data analysis and machine-learning service
providers to ensure that in-vehicle hardware and software integrates seamlessly with multiple
systems and platforms.
Automakers will also need to develop partnerships with entertainment subscription services, such
as Netflix or Amazon Prime. Such collaboration could also provide a common pool of customer
data shared by all players in the ecosystem to customize products and services for specific cus-
tomer segments. The capabilities of these third-party players will need to be considered throughout
the product lifecycle, from product development to delivery.
•	 Dealerships: Showrooms will evolve from focusing on sales to providing a vehicle usage experi-
ence, using augmented or virtual reality technologies and personalizing the experience to the
needs and wants of the customer. Post-sale service and repairs, meanwhile, will focus on software
upgrades and defect corrections, in addition to mechanical repairs. With increased self-healing
capabilities, especially for minor problems, dealer service centers would largely focus on custom-
ized accessories, major overhauls and repairs resulting from collisions.
Showrooms will evolve from focusing on sales
to providing a vehicle usage experience,
using augmented or virtual reality technologies
and personalizing the experience to the needs
and wants of the customer.
•	 Technology companies: Amid these changes, technology players and new market entrants will
play a key role. Reliable plug-and-play systems will emerge that could be retrofitted in older cars,
enabling autonomous capabilities (see Quick Take, below).6
Machine learning algorithms7
that
read driving patterns, trip conditions, terrain contours and navigation could enable self-driving
features, offered as–a-service for older vehicles. Car designs will move toward representing a
moving entertainment hub, a mobile office or a hotel on wheels.
•	 Insurance companies: Autonomous cars promise to introduce massive shifts for insurance
companies, as well. For one, insurers will need to rethink their coverage models. The statistical
algorithms and methods currently in use to create broad driver categories and averages, which
then determine coverage and set rates, will be replaced by personal one-to-one profiles that
tailor coverage and rates to one driver. Further, over 80% of collisions that occur today are
expected to be prevented once humans are taken out of the driver’s seat.8
This will undoubtedly
lead to casualties in the auto insurance industry, as well as a massive reduction in fees for the
insured, to as little as 10% of what customers pay now.9
As competition rises, it will increasingly
be a struggle for insurers to find a way to remain relevant.
QUICK TAKE
How Older Vehicles Will Plug,
Play, Go Driverless
Plug-and-play offerings, such as those in development at providers such as Comma.ai,10
could weaken the competitive edge for OEMs seeking to differentiate themselves with
autonomous features by 2025. While Comma.ai has yet to complete testing on its $1,000
add-on product, it serves to define the threat of plug-and-play offerings that can be
moved from vehicle to vehicle, enable easier upgrades or simply work better.
It will become critical for OEMs to ensure that onboard features are not only more conve-
nient but also more functional and easier to use than those of plug-and-play competitors
as the technology matures.
7A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 |
The Road to 2025
The Road to 2025
VEHICLE DESIGN WILL BE DRIVEN BY PURPOSE
Consumers’ changing mobility needs are leading to a distinct segregation of demand,
depending on the goal: They take a utilitarian perspective when the primary objective
is simply getting from one place to another, and a more personalized view when using
a vehicle for recreation. Many two-car families today, for example, choose a small car
for errands or their commute to work and a larger one for family outings or vacations.
This dichotomy in demand is expected to grow even more distinct with the advent of shared mobility
services and autonomous vehicles. As a result, OEMs will need to begin building vehicles that excel at
a particular task or role rather than fulfilling a general purpose (see Figure 4, next page).
QUICK TAKE
Sharing – Purpose-Built Style
Cadillac’s Book service allows members to pay a monthly fee to switch among
different Cadillac models, depending on their specific needs. This drastic change in strat-
egy from a major industry incumbent implies that even traditional players are paying
attention to the value of vehicle subscription service models.
A similar shift is reflected in the smartphone industry – customers don’t want to actually
own a smartphone anymore. Instead, they want to pay a monthly fee and get a new phone
when they want to, without hassle. They are looking for the utility that a smartphone
brings to the table, not ownership. Cadillac has applied the same principle, providing value
that consumers are really after via subscription rather than selling a specific product.
To stay abreast of services like this, OEMs should assess their core customer base and
find a way to establish a similar service to meet customers’ new demands without blindly
copying Cadillac and expecting positive results.
IMPERATIVE
#2
8 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025
9A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 |
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For their more utilitarian needs, consumers will increasingly expect an interchangeable, highly stan-
dardized approach. For commuting to work, they will likely want a vehicle that enables them to use
their travel time more productively. Vehicles meant for recreation, meanwhile, will need to be highly
customized, as drivers will want a recreationally minded in-car experience.
Purpose-built vehicles and the sharing economy are influencing OEMs to make changes in their prod-
uct portfolios, particularly through new subscription-based offerings. Cadillac’s Book service, for
example, allows users to pay a flat monthly fee to access whichever Cadillac car meets their specific
need at a given time (see Quick Take, previous page).11
While exotic car-sharing services have existed
for many years, they were never considered a primary mode of travel; by 2025, however, they will be.
A Love for Driving
There’s a particular segment the auto industry cannot ignore in the face of these trends: those who
love to drive and want to retain control of their driving experience. While the mass market will con-
tinue to shift toward an autonomous future, the auto value chain will need to take this segment into
account when designing and building cars for at least the foreseeable future. Finding a balance
between these two trends will take careful planning and consideration, especially as demographics
shift and a new generation of drivers matures.
These trends will have varying repercussions for different stakeholders:
•	 OEMs and suppliers: OEMs will need to change their approach to developing and delivering prod-
ucts and services to reflect the divergence between consumers’ standardized, utilitarian needs
and their personalized needs. Utilitarian needs can be met by a highly standardized solution that
provides exactly what consumers are looking for and nothing else – a way to get from place to
place. For fit-to-purpose and highly customized recreational vehicles, OEMs can focus on gaining
deeper insights into their customers – likely using the increased flow of telematics data from their
vehicles and increasingly smart infrastructure – and translating this knowledge into highly config-
urable product designs and personalized services.
Designing Cars for a Purpose
Shopping
Commuting
to work
Business
Vacation
Leisure
Business
Shopping
Vacation
Commuting
to workLeisure
Figure 4
| A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 202510
OEMs will need to shift the bulk of
vehicle design and manufacturing to
their Tier 1 suppliers, and differentiate
themselves through the productivity-
enhancing software and connectivity they
offer on their vehicles.
To gain the data and insights they require, OEMs will need to shift the bulk of vehicle design and
manufacturing to their Tier 1 suppliers, and differentiate themselves through the productivity-
enhancing software and connectivity they offer on their vehicles.
Tying together the deep understanding of end-customers with a one-to-one match of services that
can predict and preemptively meet the wants and needs of consumers will become a critical differ-
entiator. Throughout this transition, Tier 1 suppliers will become even closer to their OEM partners,
utilizing their intellectual property to meet the commoditized but necessary mobility needs of
consumers. Tier 1 suppliers will also take advantage of the personal connection and deep con-
sumer insight that OEMs command to develop and deploy vehicles that meet these utilitarian
needs – a win-win for both OEMs and Tier 1 companies.
•	 Dealerships: Dealerships will need to organize themselves around sales and services. We will likely
see entirely new business models at the dealership level: selling mobility subscription services,
supporting entire mobility fleets and their emergent needs, as well as supporting customer-
requested personalization based on the set of available accessories and options.
Like Tier 1 suppliers, dealerships will need to forge a new relationship with OEMs driven by consum-
ers’ evolving demands. Fostering a dynamic, nimble strategy to give consumers not only what they
want now, but also increasingly what they will want, will become the hallmark of a successful deal-
ership and delivery network or ecosystem.
The Road to 2025
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CAR SHARING WILL DRIVE OEMS TO TRANSFORM INTO
ORIGINAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
As car ownership declines precipitously by 2025, particularly in urban areas, and
more people choose ride-sharing services of autonomous cars,12
consumer senti-
ment will be shaped by both ease of use and the seamlessness of the entire vehicle
experience. As customer experience, connectivity and mobility services become dif-
ferentiating factors, OEMs will increasingly become “original service providers” rather than equipment
providers (see Quick Take, page 14). It’s little wonder that at CES 2017, manufacturers billed them-
selves as “mobility companies.”13
As a result, manufacturing prowess will no longer be the point of differentiation for OEMs, as they will
compete by providing branded mobility services. OEMs will need to dive deeply into the immense
wealth of data at their disposal to find insights about their consumers, and use those insights to build
vehicles that proactively solve problems. Customers will soon expect OEMs to derive value from the
data they have – if they can’t find a way to apply data in new, innovative ways, customers will quickly
switch loyalty to OEMs that do. This problem will become especially acute when switching costs drop
to zero as consumers go from purchasing a car to subscribing to a mobility service.
As cars become “computers with wheels,” they will follow in the footsteps of many other industries
contending with the increasingly shorter development cycles of consumer-facing technologies. Like
the consumer electronics industry, the auto market could see demand for a new model of vehicle
shift to every three to six months rather than the traditional annual model refreshes and multi-year
gaps between new product designs. If a drastically shortened development cycle is coupled with the
public’s demand for purpose-driven cars, OEMs and their value chains will face pressure to embrace
new manufacturing, sales and distribution approaches.
New Vehicle Sources Emerge
Furthermore, driven by the shift to a utilitarian perspective of mobility, the standardization of vehicle
parts could eventually drive consumers away from their dependence on auto OEMs altogether,
toward a model in which they would design and build their own cars, leveraging modular car designs
and applying promising nascent technologies such as 3-D printing and blockchain technology. By
applying advanced 3-D printing and open source vehicle designs, consumers could – rather than
going to an OEM or dealer – visit a “neighborhood” provider that would offer the same product for a
fraction of the cost. Although such providers would need to be regulated from a safety and quality
assurance perspective, it is not far-fetched to imagine a world in which OEMs lose their hold on the
market to open source vehicle designs and distributed production techniques.
IMPERATIVE
#3
Like the consumer electronics
industry, the auto market could
see demand for a new model
of vehicle shift to every three
to six months rather than
the traditional annual model
refreshes and multi-year gaps
between new product designs.
The Road to 2025
12 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025
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The Road to 2025
These trends will impact players across the value
chain:
•	 OEMs: As OEMs transform into marketing-
and services-driven businesses, some will adopt
business model elements of consumer goods
companies. For example, they may seek to
retain product specifications and design ele-
ments, and concentrate on consumer
marketing, while sourcing manufacturing pro-
cesses.
A key feature of this evolved business model
would be the use of deep insights into cus-
tomer behaviors, to design a plethora of
services that are truly hyper-personalized.
Examples include cars with automated-pay-
ment interfaces, augmented reality capabilities
or work collaboration features. Different players will leverage the emerging opportunities to differ-
ent extents, depending on their readiness for the new era and strength of their partnerships (see
Figure 5).
The relentless push for collaboration will help OEMs stay ahead of next-generation consumer needs.
Partnership types could include:
•	 Working with the energy/utilities industry for alternative fuel and energy sources.
•	 Connecting with the telecommunications industry for connected vehicle communication tech-
nology.
•	 Partnering with financial services firms to develop new financing models and automated pay-
ment of parking, tolls and other services.
•	 Suppliers: Tier 1 component suppliers will begin manufacturing larger and larger subsets of the
vehicle, or even complete vehicle assembly. New technology partners would emerge as Tier 1 sup-
pliers providing hardware and software. Tech giants will emerge as separate entities providing
mobility services or partnering with existing players to take advantage of those platforms. Engag-
ing technology partners as equals, rather than as subjects that bend to OEM whims, will foster a
much more productive relationship. OEMs must find a way to leverage what these technology
vendors offer – without losing their grip on their own brand’s differentiators.
The Evolving Go-to-Market Model
OEMs
Automotive
Suppliers
Connectivity
Hardware
Companies
Infrastructure
Digital 
Software
Companies
Telecoms Companies
Services, Content,
and Apps
Providers
Automotive
insurers
Figure 5
QUICK TAKE
Here and Now: The Harbingers of Change
A sign of things to come for the increased service mentality among OEMs is the 2015 alli-
ance of German car companies with the mapping service HERE from Nokia. The consortium
plans to use the IP from HERE to launch self-driving cars and deliver real-time information
on traffic and, potentially, road conditions.14
Rather than working alone, these major play-
ers decided to put aside their differences and join forces – a sign of things to come.
Multiple OEMs working together to create a more robust and complete navigational solu-
tion is a fairly novel approach for auto industry participants, which have generally worked
to solve problems on their own. HERE provides a much needed boost to these companies’
ability to attract and retain customers long-term. If this alliance can live up to its claims, it
will excel over the next decade. High-quality autonomous features are likely to create cus-
tomer stickiness: Once customers feel comfortable with an OEM’s deployed autonomous
features, they will likely stick with what they know rather than risk a bad experience with
a different OEM.
The Road to 2025
14 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025
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The Road to 2025
•	 Dealer: On the other hand, dealers will increasingly sell services and software upgrades related
to vehicles, rather than spare parts and components. They will need to work with OEMs to rethink
and re-establish the basis of their relationships with consumers through the application of inte-
grated consumer analytics.
Ultimately, dealers will need to rework their place in the mobility value chain and find a place to offer
value to consumers without being overshadowed by OEMs. For many consumers today, dealerships
represent a barrier to purchase that they don’t want to deal with; becoming a mobility mecca is how
dealers can reverse that perception and add value to the equation.
LOOKING AHEAD: FINAL THOUGHTS
The customer of 2025 will demand more from the mobility experience, and will value experience over
product ownership. Successful vehicle makers will need to prioritize car design, development and
marketing around customized in-car experiences. They will also need to embrace the concept of cars
taking care of both their own maintenance needs and the needs of their occupants during the drive.
As the electro-mechanical features of the car become table stakes for consumers, winning OEMs will
need to gradually evolve into an OSP. Competing on technology platforms and services, rather than
product features, will require renewed attention to collaborative approaches, with Tier 1 suppliers
gradually owning the vehicle’s subassemblies. Product development will aim to create more strategic
sourcing partners as suppliers compete on proprietary technology and engineering expertise.
Dealerships will need to overcome the hurdle of declining revenues from traditional vehicle sales and
service by developing new business models aligned with the shared mobility ecosystem. While dealers
will continue to serve as sales and service points, they will also be the nodes for the extended markets
of fleet management, subscription services and new vehicle servicing models that will overturn
decades of precedence in the industry.
Overall, the auto industry will undergo an unprecedented shift by 2025, changing the nature of every
player and relationship throughout the value chain. The winners will be those that overcome inertia
to redefine themselves over the next decade.
The Road to 2025
| A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 202516
FOOTNOTES
1	 “New Car Sharing Economy Disrupts Automotive Industry: ABI Research Predicts 400 Million People to Rely on Robotic Car
Sharing by 2030,” ABI Research, March 14, 2016, https://www.abiresearch.com/press/new-car-sharing-economy-disrupts-au-
tomotive-indust/.
2	 John Greenough, “The ‘Connected Car’ Is Creating a Massive New Business Opportunity for Auto, Tech and Telecom Compa-
nies,” Business Insider, March 11, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/connected-car-forecasts-top-manufacturers-2015-2.
3	 Leo Sun, “Connected Cars in the Next Decade: 4 Numbers Everyone Should Know,” The Motley Fool, March 6, 2016, https://
www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/06/connected-cars-in-the-next-decade-4-numbers-everyo.aspx.
4	 “10 Million Self-Driving Cars Will Be on the Road by 2020,” Business Insider, June 15, 2016, http://www.businessinsider.com/
report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-6.
5	 ”Towards the Self-Healing Vehicle,” IEEE Xplore, 2007, http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4383633/.
6	 Aaron Tilley, “George Hotz Promises Self-Driving Car Kit For $1,000 Before End Of Year,” Forbes, Sept. 13, 2016, http://www.
forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2016/09/13/george-hotz-promises-self-driving-car-kit-for-1000-before-end-of-
year/#68424f416fcd.
7	 David Joyner, “The What, How and Why of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Self Driving Cars,” Udacity, Nov. 10,
2016, http://blog.udacity.com/2016/11/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-self-driving-cars.html.
8	 Jeff McMahon, “Driverless Cars Could Drive Car Insurance Companies Out of Business,” Forbes, Feb. 19, 2016, https://www.
forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2016/02/19/autonomous-vehicles-could-drive-car-insurance-companies-out-of-busi-
ness/#5e03869c2231.
9	 Jeff McMahon, “Autonomous Vehicles Arrive in Three Years, in Three Stages,” Forbes, Sept. 28, 2015, https://www.forbes.com/
sites/jeffmcmahon/2015/09/28/autonomous-vehicles-arrive-in-3-years-in-3-stages/#53dcba2616b4.
10	 Darrell Etherington, “Comma.ai Will Ship a $999 Autonomous Driving Add-On By the End of this Year,” Tech Crunch, Sept. 13,
2016, https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/13/comma-ai-will-ship-a-999-autonomous-driving-add-on-by-the-end-of-this-year/.
11	 Cadie Thompson, “I Tried Cadillac’s $1,500-per-Month Subscription Service for Cars to See If it’s Worth It,” Business Insider,
March 1, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.com/cadillac-book-subscription-car-service-review-2017-2.
12	 “Private Car Owernship Will Be Dead by 2025,” Car Buzz, http://www.carbuzz.com/news/2016/9/20/Private-Car-Ownership-
Will-Be-Dead-By-2025-7735552/.
13	 “Honda Introduces ‘Cooperative Mobility Ecosystem’ at CES 2017,” Honda, Jan. 5, 2017, http://www.multivu.com/players/
English/7988331-honda-ces-cooperative-mobility-ecosystem/.
14	 Trefis Team, “What Nokia’s Sale of HERE Means,” Forbes, Dec. 10, 2015, https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecula-
tions/2015/12/10/what-nokias-sale-of-here-means/#49a240833a3e.
17A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 |
The Road to 2025
Arun Krishnan
Director, Cognizant Business
Consulting
Arun Krishnan is a Director in Cognizant Business Consulting,
where he leads the consulting practice for discrete manufactur-
ing industries. He has over 24 years of experience spread across
industry and consulting, and has expertise in automotive industry
and supply chain management. As a consultant, he has advised
multiple clients in business strategy and transformation, opera-
tional improvement and organizational change. He has authored
several white papers and presented at eminent industry forums.
He can be reached at Arun.Krishnan2@cognizant.com.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Somnath Chatterjee
Senior Consultant, Cognizant
Business Consulting
Somnath Chatterjee is a Senior Consultant in Cognizant Business
Consulting, focused on the automotive domain. He has more
than eight years of combined experience in automotive and con-
sulting functions. Somnath’s experience includes aftermarket
operations, spare parts, channel development, manufacturing
planning and quality management. He currently leads the con-
sulting function for one of Cognizant’s marquee clients. Somnath
can be reached at Somnath.Chatterjee3@cognizant.com.
Matthew Herridge
Senior Consultant, Cognizant
Business Consulting’s
Manufacturing and Logistics
Practice
Matthew Herridge is a Senior Consultant in Cognizant Business
Consulting’s Manufacturing and Logistics Practice. He has an elec-
trical engineering degree from Virginia Tech and an MBA from Ohio
State’s Fisher College of Business. He spent five years working as a
radar engineer for the U.S. Navy before attending business school
and then transitioning to consulting. He has worked for the past
year with a major automotive company on an agile software devel-
opment project. Matthew can be reached at Matthew.Herridge@
cognizant.com.
| A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 202518
The Road to 2025
Antriksh Kumar
Consultant, Cognizant
Business Consulting’s
Manufacturing and Logistics
Practice
Antriksh Kumar is a Consultant in Cognizant Business Consulting`s
Manufacturing and Logistics Practice. He has four years of industry
experience in the IT consulting space, where he worked with clients
in the automotive and banking and financial services industries.
Antriksh has a particular interest in digital transformation, with
hands-on experience in service and spare-parts management, dis-
tribution management, supply chain planning and operations. He
holds an MBA in supply chain management from NITIE, Mumbai,
(India) and a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering. Antriksh
can be reached out at Antriksh.Kumar@cognizant.com.
Gajanan Umarekar
Manager, Consulting, Cognizant
Business Consulting’s
Manufacturing and Logistics
Practice
Gajanan Umarekar is Manager, Consulting, in Cognizant Business
Consulting’s Manufacturing and Logistics Practice. He brings
hands-on experience working with top-notch automobile players
in sales, marketing and customer care operations. Gajanan has
led market development and revenue growth for reputed brands.
He brings core competencies in channel strategy, marketing strat-
egy, channel partner management, sales force effectiveness, new
market entry strategies and after-sales strategies. He has an MBA
in marketing and finance from Indian School of Business (ISB)
and a BE in mechanical engineering. Gajanan can be reached at
GajananBalasaheb.Umarekar@cognizant.com.
Suresh Vickram
Senior Manager, Consulting,
Cognizant Business
Consulting
Suresh Vickram is a Senior Manager, Consulting, in Cognizant Busi-
ness Consulting and leads the Automotive Consulting Practice. He
has more than 13 years of experience in IT consulting, leading trans-
formational deals and driving strategic initiatives for automotive
customers worldwide. Suresh has a strong background in auto-
motive demand and supply chain planning, working with leading
OEMs across the U.S. He specializes in customer analytics, dealer
management, supply chain planning and execution. Suresh can be
reached at SureshkumarVickram.Selvarajan@cognizant.com.
19A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 |
The Road to 2025
ABOUT COGNIZANT MANUFACTURING  LOGISTICS
Cognizant’s Manufacturing and Logistics business unit operates as a trusted partner to global manufacturing leaders, helping them accel-
erate business performance in the digital world. The unit is recognized for its forward-looking approach by industry gurus, such as IDC
MarketScape, which bestowed on it a “Leader” rating for service lifecycle management. Our business consulting professionals ensure that
manufac­turing and logistics clients receive exceptional business results from their technology investments and sourcing programs. Our
domain solutions leverage digital technologies to build smart products, connect with digital consumers, provide real-time visibility into
manufacturing operations, and automate knowledge work with cognitive computing. Learn more at www.cognizant.com/manufacturing.
ABOUT COGNIZANT BUSINESS CONSULTING
With over 5,500 consultants worldwide, Cognizant Business Consulting offers high-value digital business and IT consulting services that
improve business performance and operational productivity while lowering operational costs. Clients leverage our deep industry experience,
strategy and transformation capabilities, and analytical insights to help improve productivity, drive business transformation and increase
shareholder value across the enterprise. To learn more, please visit www.cognizant.com/consulting or email us at inquiry@cognizant.com.
ABOUT COGNIZANT
Cognizant (NASDAQ-100: CTSH) is one of the world’s leading professional services companies, transforming clients’ business, operating and
technology models for the digital era. Our unique industry-based, consultative approach helps clients envision, build and run more innova-
tive and efficient businesses. Headquartered in the U.S., Cognizant is ranked 205 on the Fortune 500 and is consistently listed among the
most admired companies in the world. Learn how Cognizant helps clients lead with digital at www.cognizant.com or follow us @Cognizant.
© Copyright 2017, Cognizant. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the express written permission from Cognizant. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. All
other trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners.
TL Codex 2747
World Headquarters
500 Frank W. Burr Blvd.
Teaneck, NJ 07666 USA
Phone: +1 201 801 0233
Fax: +1 201 801 0243
Toll Free: +1 888 937 3277
European Headquarters
1 Kingdom Street
Paddington Central
London W2 6BD England
Phone: +44 (0) 20 7297 7600
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7121 0102
India Operations Headquarters
#5/535 Old Mahabalipuram Road
Okkiyam Pettai, Thoraipakkam
Chennai, 600 096 India
Phone: +91 (0) 44 4209 6000
Fax: +91 (0) 44 4209 6060

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A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025

  • 1. A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 With increasingly autonomous capabilities and a declining interest in ownership, the industry needs to focus on in-transit innovation, purpose-driven design and a transition to a service- based business model. THE ROAD TO 2025 June 2017
  • 2. 2 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 The Road to 2025 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY By 2025, consumer expectations for every facet of mobility will soar, including how they drive. Customer preferences for the automobile experience – both pre- and post-sale – will impact not only overall demand for car ownership but also the specific features and experiences automakers build into their products and services. Two major shifts that will define the automotive landscape between now and 2025 are the inevitable (and phased) embrace of autonomous vehicles and the spread of the sharing economy. Some autonomous vehicle functions are already available from high-end car makers, such as lane assist, adaptive cruise control and self-parking. Others, such as Nissan and Ford, have begun cascading these features into their larger volume, mass-targeted vehicles. While some of these capabilities, such as navigation and auto emergency calling, will be commonplace by 2025, more advanced telematics-based features, such as intelligent parking and features aimed at improving convenience for end-consumers, will differentiate leading from lagging car manufacturers (see Quick Take, page 4). This is where we believe OEMs will need to focus. Increasingly, customers will focus not on product features but on the convenience and experience the car offers, and OEMs must do the same. Winning manufacturers will focus on software-driven and customizable aspects of car design, with the mechanical parts increasingly outsourced. OEMs must strike a careful balance between retaining the know-how to prevent lock-in with Tier 1 suppliers, while simultaneously fostering an agile, digitally-driven environment to keep pace with the enabling technology for feature sets. Meanwhile, consumers have developed a high level of comfort with the idea of sharing rather than owning a vehicle, and this trend will only accelerate – impacting sales volumes (see Figure 1, next page).1 In response, OEMs will need to embrace more flexible business and operating models, form personal relationships with consumers and partners, and
  • 3. 3A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025 build or participate in collaborative platforms marked by open application programming interfaces (APIs). In the face of both these trends, the daily commute is fast-changing into an end-to-end “mobility experience,” conducted via a collaborative platform. The industry value chain will shift from the traditional supplier-OEM-dealer model, to an interconnected ecosystem of multiple players, including technology companies, infrastructure providers, mobility service providers, utilities and traffic management entities. Players in this ecosystem will need to define their own value proposition and then form partnerships to build and deliver truly differentiated products and services. OEMs will also need to develop trusted relationships directly with customers. Reaching and engaging with consumers across new channels will become increasingly important to OEMs and the mobility experiences that will define success by 2025. This paper details three imperatives we believe are essential for the future success of all participants in the auto industry by 2025: In-transit innovation will need to become a major differentiator; demand will shift toward vehicles designed for a specific purpose; and auto OEMs will need to transform into original service providers (OSPs). By taking action in all three areas, the auto industry can set itself up for success in the next decade and beyond. Sharing, Not Growing Worldwide forecast (percentage growth) Shared cars* As % of total on road Vehicle production % change from a year earlier 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 *Including taxis, excluding car rental Figure 1 Source: Morgan Stanley, as depicted in The Economist
  • 4. QUICK TAKE Accelerating Into the Fast Lane Electric car company Faraday Future unveiled a “new species” of car at the CES 2017 in Las Vegas: an electric sedan with, among other features, the ability to park itself, even without the driver in it. Other vehicles that similarly fall into the “Level 2” category of autonomous cars (see Figure 2) are rolling off the assembly line at higher price points than less sophisticated models; before long, they will be available at sub-$30,000 price points. Consumers will quickly come to expect these features, just as they do with Bluetooth and backup cameras. OEMs that don’t have an evolving, high-quality offering of semi- autonomous capabilities in the pipeline will quickly lose even their most loyal customers to competitors that do. The Autonomous Vehicle Evolution Level 0 The driver controls everything inside the vehicle – steering, brakes, throttle, power. Level 1 The driver mostly has control over everything, but some specific functions are performed automatically by the car, such as steering, accelerating. Level 2 The car includes at least one automated driver assistance system for steering and acceleration/deceleration, using information about the driving environment. The driver must still always be ready to take control of the vehicle when needed. Level 3 Drivers are still necessary, but critical safety functions can be completely shifted to the vehicle. Level 4 Fully autonomous, vehicles are designed to perform all critical safety driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Level 5 A fully-autonomous system enables the vehicle to perform at the same level as a human driver, in every driving scenario. Care are developed without steering wheels or pedals. Figure 2 The Road to 2025 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 20254
  • 5. 5A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025 IN A DRIVERLESS WORLD, IN-TRANSIT INNOVATION WILL DEFINE MARKET LEADERSHIP By 2020, the percentage of new cars shipped with Internet connectivity is expected to rise from 13% in 2015 to 75% in 2020, according to BI Intelligence,2 and connected cars will account for 22% of all vehicles on the road (not just new cars), up from 10% in 2015, according to McKinsey Co.3 Ten million cars with self-driving features will be on the roads in that timeframe, as well. 4 Whereas autonomous vehicles were at the Level 2 stage in 2017 (see Figure 2), the technology and infrastructure will mature by 2025 to enable Level 4 and 5 autonomous vehicles to become more prevalent. Not only will this lead to increased personal productivity for car occupants, who will be free to spend their transit time focusing on activities other than driving, but it will also impact the interior design of the car (see Figure 3). New entrants to the automotive ecosystem could provide in-car services to extend OEMs’ core offer- ings. Consumer-focused companies such as Apple or Amazon, which are already building an ecosystem of products and services for autonomous vehicles, could enter the mainstream automobile business, as could hospitality-focused companies that augment their offerings with in-vehicle services. As this ecosystem evolves, an array of new mobility products and services will emerge, centered on the in-car customer experience. Artist Rendering of Autonomous Car Interior Figure 3 IMPERATIVE #1
  • 6. | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 20256 Expert, Advisor and Mechanic The evolution of such disruptive technologies may well result in cars that autonomously sense, inter- pret, decide, act and communicate with other automobiles, infrastructures, businesses, people and devices. As vehicles become progressively more intuitive, cognitive and autonomous, they will impact how automobile users interact with society and service providers. The car will become integral to many daily life activities: receiving notifications on needed groceries, meeting reminders, restaurant reservations, multi-channel communications, even receiving shipments on consumer orders delivered directly to the vehicle. Intelligent vehicles may also play a more proactive role in predicting, detecting and diagnosing equip- ment failures, as well as performing corrective interventions.5 Other capabilities will include the triaging of damage and repairs on-the-fly following a collision. From a product definition perspective, this would require increased maturity of the Internet of Things and in-vehicle telemetry communica- tions with insurers, service providers and infrastructures. These advancements will have a variety of implications for the industry value chain: • OEMs and suppliers: The mainstreaming of autonomous cars will force OEMs to rethink and redesign how they develop cars. The car of the future will be connected with a gamut of services and infrastructure facilities that consumers will use on a daily basis. This will require OEMs to collaborate with traffic control, public utility services, infrastructure providers, telecom service providers, telemetry equipment providers, as well as data analysis and machine-learning service providers to ensure that in-vehicle hardware and software integrates seamlessly with multiple systems and platforms. Automakers will also need to develop partnerships with entertainment subscription services, such as Netflix or Amazon Prime. Such collaboration could also provide a common pool of customer data shared by all players in the ecosystem to customize products and services for specific cus- tomer segments. The capabilities of these third-party players will need to be considered throughout the product lifecycle, from product development to delivery. • Dealerships: Showrooms will evolve from focusing on sales to providing a vehicle usage experi- ence, using augmented or virtual reality technologies and personalizing the experience to the needs and wants of the customer. Post-sale service and repairs, meanwhile, will focus on software upgrades and defect corrections, in addition to mechanical repairs. With increased self-healing capabilities, especially for minor problems, dealer service centers would largely focus on custom- ized accessories, major overhauls and repairs resulting from collisions. Showrooms will evolve from focusing on sales to providing a vehicle usage experience, using augmented or virtual reality technologies and personalizing the experience to the needs and wants of the customer.
  • 7. • Technology companies: Amid these changes, technology players and new market entrants will play a key role. Reliable plug-and-play systems will emerge that could be retrofitted in older cars, enabling autonomous capabilities (see Quick Take, below).6 Machine learning algorithms7 that read driving patterns, trip conditions, terrain contours and navigation could enable self-driving features, offered as–a-service for older vehicles. Car designs will move toward representing a moving entertainment hub, a mobile office or a hotel on wheels. • Insurance companies: Autonomous cars promise to introduce massive shifts for insurance companies, as well. For one, insurers will need to rethink their coverage models. The statistical algorithms and methods currently in use to create broad driver categories and averages, which then determine coverage and set rates, will be replaced by personal one-to-one profiles that tailor coverage and rates to one driver. Further, over 80% of collisions that occur today are expected to be prevented once humans are taken out of the driver’s seat.8 This will undoubtedly lead to casualties in the auto insurance industry, as well as a massive reduction in fees for the insured, to as little as 10% of what customers pay now.9 As competition rises, it will increasingly be a struggle for insurers to find a way to remain relevant. QUICK TAKE How Older Vehicles Will Plug, Play, Go Driverless Plug-and-play offerings, such as those in development at providers such as Comma.ai,10 could weaken the competitive edge for OEMs seeking to differentiate themselves with autonomous features by 2025. While Comma.ai has yet to complete testing on its $1,000 add-on product, it serves to define the threat of plug-and-play offerings that can be moved from vehicle to vehicle, enable easier upgrades or simply work better. It will become critical for OEMs to ensure that onboard features are not only more conve- nient but also more functional and easier to use than those of plug-and-play competitors as the technology matures. 7A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025
  • 8. The Road to 2025 VEHICLE DESIGN WILL BE DRIVEN BY PURPOSE Consumers’ changing mobility needs are leading to a distinct segregation of demand, depending on the goal: They take a utilitarian perspective when the primary objective is simply getting from one place to another, and a more personalized view when using a vehicle for recreation. Many two-car families today, for example, choose a small car for errands or their commute to work and a larger one for family outings or vacations. This dichotomy in demand is expected to grow even more distinct with the advent of shared mobility services and autonomous vehicles. As a result, OEMs will need to begin building vehicles that excel at a particular task or role rather than fulfilling a general purpose (see Figure 4, next page). QUICK TAKE Sharing – Purpose-Built Style Cadillac’s Book service allows members to pay a monthly fee to switch among different Cadillac models, depending on their specific needs. This drastic change in strat- egy from a major industry incumbent implies that even traditional players are paying attention to the value of vehicle subscription service models. A similar shift is reflected in the smartphone industry – customers don’t want to actually own a smartphone anymore. Instead, they want to pay a monthly fee and get a new phone when they want to, without hassle. They are looking for the utility that a smartphone brings to the table, not ownership. Cadillac has applied the same principle, providing value that consumers are really after via subscription rather than selling a specific product. To stay abreast of services like this, OEMs should assess their core customer base and find a way to establish a similar service to meet customers’ new demands without blindly copying Cadillac and expecting positive results. IMPERATIVE #2 8 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025
  • 9. 9A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025 For their more utilitarian needs, consumers will increasingly expect an interchangeable, highly stan- dardized approach. For commuting to work, they will likely want a vehicle that enables them to use their travel time more productively. Vehicles meant for recreation, meanwhile, will need to be highly customized, as drivers will want a recreationally minded in-car experience. Purpose-built vehicles and the sharing economy are influencing OEMs to make changes in their prod- uct portfolios, particularly through new subscription-based offerings. Cadillac’s Book service, for example, allows users to pay a flat monthly fee to access whichever Cadillac car meets their specific need at a given time (see Quick Take, previous page).11 While exotic car-sharing services have existed for many years, they were never considered a primary mode of travel; by 2025, however, they will be. A Love for Driving There’s a particular segment the auto industry cannot ignore in the face of these trends: those who love to drive and want to retain control of their driving experience. While the mass market will con- tinue to shift toward an autonomous future, the auto value chain will need to take this segment into account when designing and building cars for at least the foreseeable future. Finding a balance between these two trends will take careful planning and consideration, especially as demographics shift and a new generation of drivers matures. These trends will have varying repercussions for different stakeholders: • OEMs and suppliers: OEMs will need to change their approach to developing and delivering prod- ucts and services to reflect the divergence between consumers’ standardized, utilitarian needs and their personalized needs. Utilitarian needs can be met by a highly standardized solution that provides exactly what consumers are looking for and nothing else – a way to get from place to place. For fit-to-purpose and highly customized recreational vehicles, OEMs can focus on gaining deeper insights into their customers – likely using the increased flow of telematics data from their vehicles and increasingly smart infrastructure – and translating this knowledge into highly config- urable product designs and personalized services. Designing Cars for a Purpose Shopping Commuting to work Business Vacation Leisure Business Shopping Vacation Commuting to workLeisure Figure 4
  • 10. | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 202510 OEMs will need to shift the bulk of vehicle design and manufacturing to their Tier 1 suppliers, and differentiate themselves through the productivity- enhancing software and connectivity they offer on their vehicles. To gain the data and insights they require, OEMs will need to shift the bulk of vehicle design and manufacturing to their Tier 1 suppliers, and differentiate themselves through the productivity- enhancing software and connectivity they offer on their vehicles. Tying together the deep understanding of end-customers with a one-to-one match of services that can predict and preemptively meet the wants and needs of consumers will become a critical differ- entiator. Throughout this transition, Tier 1 suppliers will become even closer to their OEM partners, utilizing their intellectual property to meet the commoditized but necessary mobility needs of consumers. Tier 1 suppliers will also take advantage of the personal connection and deep con- sumer insight that OEMs command to develop and deploy vehicles that meet these utilitarian needs – a win-win for both OEMs and Tier 1 companies. • Dealerships: Dealerships will need to organize themselves around sales and services. We will likely see entirely new business models at the dealership level: selling mobility subscription services, supporting entire mobility fleets and their emergent needs, as well as supporting customer- requested personalization based on the set of available accessories and options. Like Tier 1 suppliers, dealerships will need to forge a new relationship with OEMs driven by consum- ers’ evolving demands. Fostering a dynamic, nimble strategy to give consumers not only what they want now, but also increasingly what they will want, will become the hallmark of a successful deal- ership and delivery network or ecosystem. The Road to 2025
  • 11. 11A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025 CAR SHARING WILL DRIVE OEMS TO TRANSFORM INTO ORIGINAL SERVICE PROVIDERS As car ownership declines precipitously by 2025, particularly in urban areas, and more people choose ride-sharing services of autonomous cars,12 consumer senti- ment will be shaped by both ease of use and the seamlessness of the entire vehicle experience. As customer experience, connectivity and mobility services become dif- ferentiating factors, OEMs will increasingly become “original service providers” rather than equipment providers (see Quick Take, page 14). It’s little wonder that at CES 2017, manufacturers billed them- selves as “mobility companies.”13 As a result, manufacturing prowess will no longer be the point of differentiation for OEMs, as they will compete by providing branded mobility services. OEMs will need to dive deeply into the immense wealth of data at their disposal to find insights about their consumers, and use those insights to build vehicles that proactively solve problems. Customers will soon expect OEMs to derive value from the data they have – if they can’t find a way to apply data in new, innovative ways, customers will quickly switch loyalty to OEMs that do. This problem will become especially acute when switching costs drop to zero as consumers go from purchasing a car to subscribing to a mobility service. As cars become “computers with wheels,” they will follow in the footsteps of many other industries contending with the increasingly shorter development cycles of consumer-facing technologies. Like the consumer electronics industry, the auto market could see demand for a new model of vehicle shift to every three to six months rather than the traditional annual model refreshes and multi-year gaps between new product designs. If a drastically shortened development cycle is coupled with the public’s demand for purpose-driven cars, OEMs and their value chains will face pressure to embrace new manufacturing, sales and distribution approaches. New Vehicle Sources Emerge Furthermore, driven by the shift to a utilitarian perspective of mobility, the standardization of vehicle parts could eventually drive consumers away from their dependence on auto OEMs altogether, toward a model in which they would design and build their own cars, leveraging modular car designs and applying promising nascent technologies such as 3-D printing and blockchain technology. By applying advanced 3-D printing and open source vehicle designs, consumers could – rather than going to an OEM or dealer – visit a “neighborhood” provider that would offer the same product for a fraction of the cost. Although such providers would need to be regulated from a safety and quality assurance perspective, it is not far-fetched to imagine a world in which OEMs lose their hold on the market to open source vehicle designs and distributed production techniques. IMPERATIVE #3
  • 12. Like the consumer electronics industry, the auto market could see demand for a new model of vehicle shift to every three to six months rather than the traditional annual model refreshes and multi-year gaps between new product designs. The Road to 2025 12 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025
  • 13. 13A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025 These trends will impact players across the value chain: • OEMs: As OEMs transform into marketing- and services-driven businesses, some will adopt business model elements of consumer goods companies. For example, they may seek to retain product specifications and design ele- ments, and concentrate on consumer marketing, while sourcing manufacturing pro- cesses. A key feature of this evolved business model would be the use of deep insights into cus- tomer behaviors, to design a plethora of services that are truly hyper-personalized. Examples include cars with automated-pay- ment interfaces, augmented reality capabilities or work collaboration features. Different players will leverage the emerging opportunities to differ- ent extents, depending on their readiness for the new era and strength of their partnerships (see Figure 5). The relentless push for collaboration will help OEMs stay ahead of next-generation consumer needs. Partnership types could include: • Working with the energy/utilities industry for alternative fuel and energy sources. • Connecting with the telecommunications industry for connected vehicle communication tech- nology. • Partnering with financial services firms to develop new financing models and automated pay- ment of parking, tolls and other services. • Suppliers: Tier 1 component suppliers will begin manufacturing larger and larger subsets of the vehicle, or even complete vehicle assembly. New technology partners would emerge as Tier 1 sup- pliers providing hardware and software. Tech giants will emerge as separate entities providing mobility services or partnering with existing players to take advantage of those platforms. Engag- ing technology partners as equals, rather than as subjects that bend to OEM whims, will foster a much more productive relationship. OEMs must find a way to leverage what these technology vendors offer – without losing their grip on their own brand’s differentiators. The Evolving Go-to-Market Model OEMs Automotive Suppliers Connectivity Hardware Companies Infrastructure Digital Software Companies Telecoms Companies Services, Content, and Apps Providers Automotive insurers Figure 5
  • 14. QUICK TAKE Here and Now: The Harbingers of Change A sign of things to come for the increased service mentality among OEMs is the 2015 alli- ance of German car companies with the mapping service HERE from Nokia. The consortium plans to use the IP from HERE to launch self-driving cars and deliver real-time information on traffic and, potentially, road conditions.14 Rather than working alone, these major play- ers decided to put aside their differences and join forces – a sign of things to come. Multiple OEMs working together to create a more robust and complete navigational solu- tion is a fairly novel approach for auto industry participants, which have generally worked to solve problems on their own. HERE provides a much needed boost to these companies’ ability to attract and retain customers long-term. If this alliance can live up to its claims, it will excel over the next decade. High-quality autonomous features are likely to create cus- tomer stickiness: Once customers feel comfortable with an OEM’s deployed autonomous features, they will likely stick with what they know rather than risk a bad experience with a different OEM. The Road to 2025 14 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025
  • 15. 15A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025 • Dealer: On the other hand, dealers will increasingly sell services and software upgrades related to vehicles, rather than spare parts and components. They will need to work with OEMs to rethink and re-establish the basis of their relationships with consumers through the application of inte- grated consumer analytics. Ultimately, dealers will need to rework their place in the mobility value chain and find a place to offer value to consumers without being overshadowed by OEMs. For many consumers today, dealerships represent a barrier to purchase that they don’t want to deal with; becoming a mobility mecca is how dealers can reverse that perception and add value to the equation. LOOKING AHEAD: FINAL THOUGHTS The customer of 2025 will demand more from the mobility experience, and will value experience over product ownership. Successful vehicle makers will need to prioritize car design, development and marketing around customized in-car experiences. They will also need to embrace the concept of cars taking care of both their own maintenance needs and the needs of their occupants during the drive. As the electro-mechanical features of the car become table stakes for consumers, winning OEMs will need to gradually evolve into an OSP. Competing on technology platforms and services, rather than product features, will require renewed attention to collaborative approaches, with Tier 1 suppliers gradually owning the vehicle’s subassemblies. Product development will aim to create more strategic sourcing partners as suppliers compete on proprietary technology and engineering expertise. Dealerships will need to overcome the hurdle of declining revenues from traditional vehicle sales and service by developing new business models aligned with the shared mobility ecosystem. While dealers will continue to serve as sales and service points, they will also be the nodes for the extended markets of fleet management, subscription services and new vehicle servicing models that will overturn decades of precedence in the industry. Overall, the auto industry will undergo an unprecedented shift by 2025, changing the nature of every player and relationship throughout the value chain. The winners will be those that overcome inertia to redefine themselves over the next decade.
  • 16. The Road to 2025 | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 202516 FOOTNOTES 1 “New Car Sharing Economy Disrupts Automotive Industry: ABI Research Predicts 400 Million People to Rely on Robotic Car Sharing by 2030,” ABI Research, March 14, 2016, https://www.abiresearch.com/press/new-car-sharing-economy-disrupts-au- tomotive-indust/. 2 John Greenough, “The ‘Connected Car’ Is Creating a Massive New Business Opportunity for Auto, Tech and Telecom Compa- nies,” Business Insider, March 11, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/connected-car-forecasts-top-manufacturers-2015-2. 3 Leo Sun, “Connected Cars in the Next Decade: 4 Numbers Everyone Should Know,” The Motley Fool, March 6, 2016, https:// www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/06/connected-cars-in-the-next-decade-4-numbers-everyo.aspx. 4 “10 Million Self-Driving Cars Will Be on the Road by 2020,” Business Insider, June 15, 2016, http://www.businessinsider.com/ report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-6. 5 ”Towards the Self-Healing Vehicle,” IEEE Xplore, 2007, http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4383633/. 6 Aaron Tilley, “George Hotz Promises Self-Driving Car Kit For $1,000 Before End Of Year,” Forbes, Sept. 13, 2016, http://www. forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2016/09/13/george-hotz-promises-self-driving-car-kit-for-1000-before-end-of- year/#68424f416fcd. 7 David Joyner, “The What, How and Why of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Self Driving Cars,” Udacity, Nov. 10, 2016, http://blog.udacity.com/2016/11/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-self-driving-cars.html. 8 Jeff McMahon, “Driverless Cars Could Drive Car Insurance Companies Out of Business,” Forbes, Feb. 19, 2016, https://www. forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2016/02/19/autonomous-vehicles-could-drive-car-insurance-companies-out-of-busi- ness/#5e03869c2231. 9 Jeff McMahon, “Autonomous Vehicles Arrive in Three Years, in Three Stages,” Forbes, Sept. 28, 2015, https://www.forbes.com/ sites/jeffmcmahon/2015/09/28/autonomous-vehicles-arrive-in-3-years-in-3-stages/#53dcba2616b4. 10 Darrell Etherington, “Comma.ai Will Ship a $999 Autonomous Driving Add-On By the End of this Year,” Tech Crunch, Sept. 13, 2016, https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/13/comma-ai-will-ship-a-999-autonomous-driving-add-on-by-the-end-of-this-year/. 11 Cadie Thompson, “I Tried Cadillac’s $1,500-per-Month Subscription Service for Cars to See If it’s Worth It,” Business Insider, March 1, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.com/cadillac-book-subscription-car-service-review-2017-2. 12 “Private Car Owernship Will Be Dead by 2025,” Car Buzz, http://www.carbuzz.com/news/2016/9/20/Private-Car-Ownership- Will-Be-Dead-By-2025-7735552/. 13 “Honda Introduces ‘Cooperative Mobility Ecosystem’ at CES 2017,” Honda, Jan. 5, 2017, http://www.multivu.com/players/ English/7988331-honda-ces-cooperative-mobility-ecosystem/. 14 Trefis Team, “What Nokia’s Sale of HERE Means,” Forbes, Dec. 10, 2015, https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecula- tions/2015/12/10/what-nokias-sale-of-here-means/#49a240833a3e.
  • 17. 17A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025 Arun Krishnan Director, Cognizant Business Consulting Arun Krishnan is a Director in Cognizant Business Consulting, where he leads the consulting practice for discrete manufactur- ing industries. He has over 24 years of experience spread across industry and consulting, and has expertise in automotive industry and supply chain management. As a consultant, he has advised multiple clients in business strategy and transformation, opera- tional improvement and organizational change. He has authored several white papers and presented at eminent industry forums. He can be reached at Arun.Krishnan2@cognizant.com. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Somnath Chatterjee Senior Consultant, Cognizant Business Consulting Somnath Chatterjee is a Senior Consultant in Cognizant Business Consulting, focused on the automotive domain. He has more than eight years of combined experience in automotive and con- sulting functions. Somnath’s experience includes aftermarket operations, spare parts, channel development, manufacturing planning and quality management. He currently leads the con- sulting function for one of Cognizant’s marquee clients. Somnath can be reached at Somnath.Chatterjee3@cognizant.com. Matthew Herridge Senior Consultant, Cognizant Business Consulting’s Manufacturing and Logistics Practice Matthew Herridge is a Senior Consultant in Cognizant Business Consulting’s Manufacturing and Logistics Practice. He has an elec- trical engineering degree from Virginia Tech and an MBA from Ohio State’s Fisher College of Business. He spent five years working as a radar engineer for the U.S. Navy before attending business school and then transitioning to consulting. He has worked for the past year with a major automotive company on an agile software devel- opment project. Matthew can be reached at Matthew.Herridge@ cognizant.com.
  • 18. | A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 202518 The Road to 2025 Antriksh Kumar Consultant, Cognizant Business Consulting’s Manufacturing and Logistics Practice Antriksh Kumar is a Consultant in Cognizant Business Consulting`s Manufacturing and Logistics Practice. He has four years of industry experience in the IT consulting space, where he worked with clients in the automotive and banking and financial services industries. Antriksh has a particular interest in digital transformation, with hands-on experience in service and spare-parts management, dis- tribution management, supply chain planning and operations. He holds an MBA in supply chain management from NITIE, Mumbai, (India) and a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering. Antriksh can be reached out at Antriksh.Kumar@cognizant.com. Gajanan Umarekar Manager, Consulting, Cognizant Business Consulting’s Manufacturing and Logistics Practice Gajanan Umarekar is Manager, Consulting, in Cognizant Business Consulting’s Manufacturing and Logistics Practice. He brings hands-on experience working with top-notch automobile players in sales, marketing and customer care operations. Gajanan has led market development and revenue growth for reputed brands. He brings core competencies in channel strategy, marketing strat- egy, channel partner management, sales force effectiveness, new market entry strategies and after-sales strategies. He has an MBA in marketing and finance from Indian School of Business (ISB) and a BE in mechanical engineering. Gajanan can be reached at GajananBalasaheb.Umarekar@cognizant.com. Suresh Vickram Senior Manager, Consulting, Cognizant Business Consulting Suresh Vickram is a Senior Manager, Consulting, in Cognizant Busi- ness Consulting and leads the Automotive Consulting Practice. He has more than 13 years of experience in IT consulting, leading trans- formational deals and driving strategic initiatives for automotive customers worldwide. Suresh has a strong background in auto- motive demand and supply chain planning, working with leading OEMs across the U.S. He specializes in customer analytics, dealer management, supply chain planning and execution. Suresh can be reached at SureshkumarVickram.Selvarajan@cognizant.com.
  • 19. 19A Vision of the Auto Industry Circa 2025 | The Road to 2025
  • 20. ABOUT COGNIZANT MANUFACTURING LOGISTICS Cognizant’s Manufacturing and Logistics business unit operates as a trusted partner to global manufacturing leaders, helping them accel- erate business performance in the digital world. The unit is recognized for its forward-looking approach by industry gurus, such as IDC MarketScape, which bestowed on it a “Leader” rating for service lifecycle management. Our business consulting professionals ensure that manufac­turing and logistics clients receive exceptional business results from their technology investments and sourcing programs. Our domain solutions leverage digital technologies to build smart products, connect with digital consumers, provide real-time visibility into manufacturing operations, and automate knowledge work with cognitive computing. Learn more at www.cognizant.com/manufacturing. ABOUT COGNIZANT BUSINESS CONSULTING With over 5,500 consultants worldwide, Cognizant Business Consulting offers high-value digital business and IT consulting services that improve business performance and operational productivity while lowering operational costs. Clients leverage our deep industry experience, strategy and transformation capabilities, and analytical insights to help improve productivity, drive business transformation and increase shareholder value across the enterprise. To learn more, please visit www.cognizant.com/consulting or email us at inquiry@cognizant.com. ABOUT COGNIZANT Cognizant (NASDAQ-100: CTSH) is one of the world’s leading professional services companies, transforming clients’ business, operating and technology models for the digital era. Our unique industry-based, consultative approach helps clients envision, build and run more innova- tive and efficient businesses. Headquartered in the U.S., Cognizant is ranked 205 on the Fortune 500 and is consistently listed among the most admired companies in the world. Learn how Cognizant helps clients lead with digital at www.cognizant.com or follow us @Cognizant. © Copyright 2017, Cognizant. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the express written permission from Cognizant. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. All other trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners. TL Codex 2747 World Headquarters 500 Frank W. Burr Blvd. Teaneck, NJ 07666 USA Phone: +1 201 801 0233 Fax: +1 201 801 0243 Toll Free: +1 888 937 3277 European Headquarters 1 Kingdom Street Paddington Central London W2 6BD England Phone: +44 (0) 20 7297 7600 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7121 0102 India Operations Headquarters #5/535 Old Mahabalipuram Road Okkiyam Pettai, Thoraipakkam Chennai, 600 096 India Phone: +91 (0) 44 4209 6000 Fax: +91 (0) 44 4209 6060