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A Strategy to Reach Socioeconomic
Development By Strengthening
Local Government’s Saving and
Investment Capacities
Proposition of Action to Brazilian Public
Administration
RELATION BETWEEN SAVING RATES AND GNP GROWTH
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
2
GNP Growth
SavingRates
BRAZIL’S GNP GROWTH RATES
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
3
BRAZIL’S SAVING RATES
(% OF GNP)
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
4
Domestic Savings
External Savings
SAVINGS & INVESTMENT RATES
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
5
INVESTIMENT
DOMESTIC SAVINGS
BRAZIL’S PUBLIC INVESTMENT RATES
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
6
13
15.18
16.1
21.4 22.21
18.24
16.68 17.5
2.7 3.42 4.22 3.71
2.68 2.58 1.92 2
14.2
16.4
20
25.2 25.2
33
35 35
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
TAX BURDEN
PUBLIC
INVESTMENT
TOTAL INVESTMENT
Main Causes of Low Public Investment
Rates
 Excess of Current Expenditure
 Sistemic Waste and Corruption
 Decisions Made Just through Political Criteria
 Weak and Uncoordinated Planning
System
Concentration of Resources in the
Federal Level
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
7
REVENUE DISTRIBUTION AMONG FEDERATE ENTITIES
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
8
60
25
15
Federal State Municipal
Today’s Municipal Attributes
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 9
 Public Health
 Public Education
 Social Works
 Urban Transportation
 Housing
 Water, Sewer and Waste (Sanitation)
 Urban Traffic
 Licensing of Works, Services and Goods Production
 Environmental Regulations
 Tourism Promotion
 Public Works
 Law Enforcement
 Urban Security
 Cultural Affairs
 Attract New Businesses to Generate Income and Jobs
What Got to Be Done Without Further Delay?
 Increase saving rates in the 3 levels of
government: Federal, State and Municipal.
 Redistribute investment resources between the 3
levels of government, in order to decentralize and
easy the fiscal burns of states and
municipalities, and increase their investment
capacity.
 Increase total public investment rates at least to
3.5% of GNP, in order to assure a Country’s total
saving and investment level of 20% and a steady
and sound GNP Growth of at least 4% a year.
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
10
How to Reach It?
 By reforming the Fiscal Responsibility Law (Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal)
to turn mandatory a level of savings (and so of Investment) in the 3 levels
of government.
 Savings of 3 levels of government should be gathered in a Federative
Savings and Investment Fund (FSIF, similar to education’s FUNDEB), in the
form of quotas, with funds to be rescued under certain rules stablished by
law.
 FSIF would make a redistribution of investment funds between the 3 levels
of government, easing the unbalance of today, and allowing more
investment in the sub-national levels.
 FSIF should also improve other useful economic operations, such act as
PPP’s guarantor fund, act as colateral to project financing and so forth
 FSIF should be administred by BNDES, who would appraise the proposed
projects and liberate the funds to finance them.
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
11
FSIF Financial Prospectives
(GNP of US$ 2,3 trillions, Tax Burden 35%)
LEVEL OF
GOVERNMENT
MANDATORY
SAVINGS (% OF
TOTAL
INCOME)
INVESTMENT
(% OF
SAVINGS)
ESTIMATED
SAVINGS
AMOUNT PER
YEAR (in US$
Billions)
ESTIMATED
INVESTMENT
AMOUNT PER
YEAR (In US$
Billions)
FEDERAL 6 15 48 12
STATE 2.5 25 20 20
MUNICIPAL 1.5 60 12 48
TOTAL 10 100 80 80
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
12
FSIF Investment Rules
 Savings will be recovered by the levels of
government only by presentation of investment
projects in areas to be specified by law, to be
appraised and approved by FSIF manager
(BNDES).
 To each state and city will be assured access to
investment funds by at least the amount of
their own saving.
 Acess to investment funds in excess of their
own savings will depend on certains
circunstances, to be regulated by law, for
instance, stimulating project competition
among sub-national entities
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
13
Possible Consequences of the FSIF
Strategy to Public Services
 Increase government saving rates
 Increase public investment, boosting the economy in
general
 Reach a desirable, rational and beneficial
Decentralization of resources to the state and municipal
level
 Promote a Qualitative Reform of public administration
 Allow the planning, better coordination and
implementation of projects in key areas of
government, renewing infrastructure and public
services, avoiding duplications and project collisions
 Boost public services’ efficiency and quality
 Reduce public debt in the long run
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
14
Possible Consequences of FSIF to
Taxpayers and Society as a Whole
 Allow consistent reduction of interest rates
 Easy taxation burns
 Get a steady growth of GNP
 Easy inflationary pressures
 Get Better public services by LGs
 Allow private investment to grow steadly
 Allow investment to ameliorate the
infraestructure in the country and in the
cities
 Better quality of life to the population
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
15
In The Short Run
 Legislation would be passed allowing the
Sub-National Federate Entities, during the
first five years , to transform part of their
debt into capital, as Quotas of FSIF
 The amount of debt to be transformed into
capital (FSIF Quotas) would correspond to
1.5% of gross (Municipalities) or 2,5%
(States) of the fiscal year total revenues of
the Sub-National Federate Entities
 Question to specialists: How would this
operation be accounted in the public
entities balance sheet?
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
16
Conclusions
 Increasing Savings and Investment by
government is a key issue to transform Brazil
into a real developed country, socially fair.
 Increasing S and I by government should be
reached by a strategy based upon a change in
the Fiscal Responsibility Law, in order to
become savings and investment
mandatory, gathered in a Federative Fund.
 This would bring positive consequences to the
public services and to society as a whole.
 In the future, public Saving and Investment
levels should be considered the rate of success
or failure of a public administration.
Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance
17
SOURCES
 Pastore, A.C. “O Caminho do
Crescimento”, 2009
 Araújo, Carpena & Cunha, IBGE
 FGV-CPDOC: Santos Jr.; Bugelli; Ellery &
Gomes; Merenda
 Pastore, A.C.; Pinotti, M.C.;Pagano, T.A
“Limites ao Crescimento Econômico”
Forum Nacional 2009
18

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A strategy to reach qualitative reform of brazilian

  • 1. A Strategy to Reach Socioeconomic Development By Strengthening Local Government’s Saving and Investment Capacities Proposition of Action to Brazilian Public Administration
  • 2. RELATION BETWEEN SAVING RATES AND GNP GROWTH Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 2 GNP Growth SavingRates
  • 3. BRAZIL’S GNP GROWTH RATES Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 3
  • 4. BRAZIL’S SAVING RATES (% OF GNP) Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 4 Domestic Savings External Savings
  • 5. SAVINGS & INVESTMENT RATES Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 5 INVESTIMENT DOMESTIC SAVINGS
  • 6. BRAZIL’S PUBLIC INVESTMENT RATES Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 6 13 15.18 16.1 21.4 22.21 18.24 16.68 17.5 2.7 3.42 4.22 3.71 2.68 2.58 1.92 2 14.2 16.4 20 25.2 25.2 33 35 35 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 TAX BURDEN PUBLIC INVESTMENT TOTAL INVESTMENT
  • 7. Main Causes of Low Public Investment Rates  Excess of Current Expenditure  Sistemic Waste and Corruption  Decisions Made Just through Political Criteria  Weak and Uncoordinated Planning System Concentration of Resources in the Federal Level Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 7
  • 8. REVENUE DISTRIBUTION AMONG FEDERATE ENTITIES Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 8 60 25 15 Federal State Municipal
  • 9. Today’s Municipal Attributes Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 9  Public Health  Public Education  Social Works  Urban Transportation  Housing  Water, Sewer and Waste (Sanitation)  Urban Traffic  Licensing of Works, Services and Goods Production  Environmental Regulations  Tourism Promotion  Public Works  Law Enforcement  Urban Security  Cultural Affairs  Attract New Businesses to Generate Income and Jobs
  • 10. What Got to Be Done Without Further Delay?  Increase saving rates in the 3 levels of government: Federal, State and Municipal.  Redistribute investment resources between the 3 levels of government, in order to decentralize and easy the fiscal burns of states and municipalities, and increase their investment capacity.  Increase total public investment rates at least to 3.5% of GNP, in order to assure a Country’s total saving and investment level of 20% and a steady and sound GNP Growth of at least 4% a year. Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 10
  • 11. How to Reach It?  By reforming the Fiscal Responsibility Law (Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal) to turn mandatory a level of savings (and so of Investment) in the 3 levels of government.  Savings of 3 levels of government should be gathered in a Federative Savings and Investment Fund (FSIF, similar to education’s FUNDEB), in the form of quotas, with funds to be rescued under certain rules stablished by law.  FSIF would make a redistribution of investment funds between the 3 levels of government, easing the unbalance of today, and allowing more investment in the sub-national levels.  FSIF should also improve other useful economic operations, such act as PPP’s guarantor fund, act as colateral to project financing and so forth  FSIF should be administred by BNDES, who would appraise the proposed projects and liberate the funds to finance them. Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 11
  • 12. FSIF Financial Prospectives (GNP of US$ 2,3 trillions, Tax Burden 35%) LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT MANDATORY SAVINGS (% OF TOTAL INCOME) INVESTMENT (% OF SAVINGS) ESTIMATED SAVINGS AMOUNT PER YEAR (in US$ Billions) ESTIMATED INVESTMENT AMOUNT PER YEAR (In US$ Billions) FEDERAL 6 15 48 12 STATE 2.5 25 20 20 MUNICIPAL 1.5 60 12 48 TOTAL 10 100 80 80 Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 12
  • 13. FSIF Investment Rules  Savings will be recovered by the levels of government only by presentation of investment projects in areas to be specified by law, to be appraised and approved by FSIF manager (BNDES).  To each state and city will be assured access to investment funds by at least the amount of their own saving.  Acess to investment funds in excess of their own savings will depend on certains circunstances, to be regulated by law, for instance, stimulating project competition among sub-national entities Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 13
  • 14. Possible Consequences of the FSIF Strategy to Public Services  Increase government saving rates  Increase public investment, boosting the economy in general  Reach a desirable, rational and beneficial Decentralization of resources to the state and municipal level  Promote a Qualitative Reform of public administration  Allow the planning, better coordination and implementation of projects in key areas of government, renewing infrastructure and public services, avoiding duplications and project collisions  Boost public services’ efficiency and quality  Reduce public debt in the long run Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 14
  • 15. Possible Consequences of FSIF to Taxpayers and Society as a Whole  Allow consistent reduction of interest rates  Easy taxation burns  Get a steady growth of GNP  Easy inflationary pressures  Get Better public services by LGs  Allow private investment to grow steadly  Allow investment to ameliorate the infraestructure in the country and in the cities  Better quality of life to the population Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 15
  • 16. In The Short Run  Legislation would be passed allowing the Sub-National Federate Entities, during the first five years , to transform part of their debt into capital, as Quotas of FSIF  The amount of debt to be transformed into capital (FSIF Quotas) would correspond to 1.5% of gross (Municipalities) or 2,5% (States) of the fiscal year total revenues of the Sub-National Federate Entities  Question to specialists: How would this operation be accounted in the public entities balance sheet? Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 16
  • 17. Conclusions  Increasing Savings and Investment by government is a key issue to transform Brazil into a real developed country, socially fair.  Increasing S and I by government should be reached by a strategy based upon a change in the Fiscal Responsibility Law, in order to become savings and investment mandatory, gathered in a Federative Fund.  This would bring positive consequences to the public services and to society as a whole.  In the future, public Saving and Investment levels should be considered the rate of success or failure of a public administration. Accountability, Local Government and Public Finance 17
  • 18. SOURCES  Pastore, A.C. “O Caminho do Crescimento”, 2009  Araújo, Carpena & Cunha, IBGE  FGV-CPDOC: Santos Jr.; Bugelli; Ellery & Gomes; Merenda  Pastore, A.C.; Pinotti, M.C.;Pagano, T.A “Limites ao Crescimento Econômico” Forum Nacional 2009 18