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2014 Housing Summit_JntAssyPCmeet

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2014 Housing Summit_JntAssyPCmeet

  1. 1. MSB Housing Needs Assessment Overview By: Joshua Allen, MPA MSB Planner II March 24, 2015 Joint MSB Assembly & Planning Commission Meeting
  2. 2. MSB Population 3,594 3,225 4,153 3,621 2,701 3,053 2,908 3,238 2,999 3,645 3,768 3,362 2,316 1,447 1,016 660 314 152 3,213 3,244 3,647 3,383 2,461 2,784 2,866 2,928 3,015 3,395 3,496 2,991 2,132 1,224 1,012 601 447 308 4200 2100 0 2100 4200 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 & Over 2012 Population: 89,319 Male Female Baby Boomers 1943-1962 20,736 (23.2%) Gen X 1963-1982 24,994 (37.9%) Millennial 1983-2002 25,803 (28.8%) Gen Z 2003-Present 13,276 (14.8%) Silent Generati on 1925- 1942 4,510 (5%) And Still Growing! Current = 98,063 2020 = 125,000 2030 = 165,000
  3. 3. 1996 Memory Lake Seldon Rd ChurchRd Pittman Rd Spruce Rd
  4. 4. 2012
  5. 5. Household Change 316 917 2,539 4,183 7,106 10,500 14,500 476 1,573 3,888 6,486 10,659 15,500 21,000 260 1,115 2,365 3,479 5,238 7,000 8,000 240 1,104 2,515 3,463 4,444 5,500 6,500 237 574 1,287 1,710 2,396 3,000 3,800 162 258 514 715 1,112 1,500 2,000138 170 286 520 869 1,250 1,800 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 2030 7 or more persons 6 Persons 5 Persons 4 Persons 3 Persons 2 Persons 1 Person Average Size 3.4 3.06 2.9 2.84 2.75 2.65 2.55
  6. 6. Household Change 372 1,204 3,200 5,499 9,245 13,500 19,000 1,469 4,495 10,301 15,057 22,579 30,500 40,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 2030 Family Households Nonfamily Households
  7. 7. Senior (65+) Households189 552 1,160 2,587 5,287 8,500 12,500 1,651 5,159 12,341 17,965 26,537 35,500 49,500 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 2030 Moderate Growth Senior Households Households 189 552 1,160 2,587 5,287 13,000 30,000 1,651 5,159 12,341 17,965 26,537 35,500 49,500 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 2030 Fast Growth Senior Households Households
  8. 8. Affordable Housing Income Spectrum Extremely Very Low Low Median Low Income Income Income Income Young Skilled Workers Homeless Singles & Couples Single Parents & Children Seniors & Disabled Working Poor Young Professionals Essential or Service Workers Work Force Housing 30% 50% 60% 80% 100% 120% Household Median Income 1 Person: $55,000 2 Person: $62,800 3 Person: $70,700 4 Person: $78,500
  9. 9. Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 or more All Households 1,346 1,314 2,600 2,113 3,178 5,963 4,863 6,072 2,198 1,476 Family Households 711 477 1,099 1,283 1,938 4,368 3,974 5,395 1,950 1,242 Nonfamily Households 635 837 1,501 830 1,240 1,595 889 677 248 234 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Households MSB Household Income Distribution Source: US Census 2013 ACS 5-yr Estimate Median Incomes Extr. Low 17% Very Low 16% Low 19% Above Low 48% Nonfamily Households Extr. Low 5% Very Low 5% Low 12% Above Low 78% Family Households
  10. 10. 77% of the Housing Supply! Total Units: 35,021 Total Parcels: 29,924 Total Acres: 81,092 Average Acreage: 2.71 Unit Density Per Acre: 0.43 Average Units Per Parcel: 1.17 Average Acreage Per Unit: 2.32 Single Family 81.81% Mobile Home 3.82% Duplex 3.49% Multifamily 9.55% Group Quarters 0.32% Mobile Home Park 1.01%
  11. 11. Housing Supply 9,821 16,218 24,181 34,000 45,000 3,573 4,338 7,643 13,500 22,0004,479 5,244 6,823 9,200 12,400 7,559 6,773 9,505 9,500 14,500 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Owner Occuppied Renter Occupied Seasonal & Recreational Vacant Projected housing shortage if development remains unchanged! Population Needs Meet Average Vacancy Projected Built Shortage 2020: 47,170 units 57,768 units 53,000 units 4,500+ units 2030: 64,706 units 79,244 units 70,000 units 9,000+ units
  12. 12. Cost Trends Household Income 2009 Family: $65,600 Nonfamily: $51,000 2014 Family: $65,070** Nonfamily: $49,843** Flat-lined & Declining **Adjusted for inflation in 2009 Dollars w/US Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator 2009 Average Sales Price $212,594 2014 Average Sales Price $212,454** Keeping up with Inflation Home Sales 2009 Average Rent $806 2014 Average Rent $922** Exceeding Inflation! Rentals
  13. 13. Average Rental vs. Buying 900’/sq 2 bedroom 1 bath Knik-Goosebay Rd. Rent Source: Zillow Buy Rental Cost $975/mo + $200 Utilities Total: $1,175/mo Income Considered Affordable $23/hr or $48,000/yr 900’/sq 2 bedroom 1 bath Neil Circle 20yr Mortgage Cost @ 4% Payment: $667/mo Utilities: $200/mo Insurance: $67/mo Taxes: $110/mo PMI: $90 Total: $1,134/mo Income Considered Affordable $21/hr or $44,000/yr
  14. 14. Rental Affordability $975/mo + $200 Utilities $1,500/mo + $300 Utilities Median Income Low Income (80% Median) Very Low Income (50% Median) Extremely Low Income - Poverty (30% Median) Average Rentals
  15. 15. Nonfamily HouseholdsFamily Households Unmet Housing Needs Unmet Needs 4,659 Households (34%) Needs Met 9,245 Households (66%) Needs Met 22,579 Households (83%) Unmet Needs 4,604 Households (17%) Needs Met 67,975 People (76%) Family 15,194 People (17%) Nonfamily 6,150 People (7%)
  16. 16. Importance of Affordable Housing
  17. 17. The Current Situation
  18. 18. Future Considerations
  19. 19. Conclusion Nonfamily Family RentalsOwnership
  20. 20. Questions?
  21. 21. Thank You! For More Info Contact: Joshua Allen, MSB Planner II 350 E. Dahlia Ave. Palmer, AK 99645 (907)861-8514 joshua.allen@matsugov.us

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