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Smart Program Investments
G Keeping Truant, Suspended & Expelled Students In School
G Re-Enrolling Students Who Have Dropped Out of School
Le#
Behind
in
the
Labor
Market:
The
Con4nued

 Deteriora4on
of
Employment
Opportuni4es
for

Young
High
School
Dropouts
in
the
U.S
and
Illinois



                    Joseph
McLaughlin

              Center
for
Labor
Market
Studies

                 Northeastern
University

                  Boston,
MassachuseKs

                      December
2010

Changes in Civilian Employment in the U.S. from November-
December 2007 – September-October 2010 by Major Age Group
                                      (Seasonally Adjusted*)                        


                                November-                                                           Change in
                                December                        September-                          Employed
 Age Group                        2007                         October 2010                          Persons
       16+                          146,328                           139,226                           (7,102)
     16-24                           19,727                            17,097                           (2,630)
   25-29(1)                          16,432                            15,476                             (956)
     16-29                           36,159                            32,573                           (3,586)
       55+                           26,209                            28,039                            1,830
 (1)
The
25‐29
year
old
age
was
seasonally
adjusted
using
the
same
adjustment
factor
for
all
workers
16
and
older.

Percentage Point Changes in the Employment/Population Ratios
of U.S. Adults By Age Group, January-August 2000 to January-
              August 2010 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)   

                        (A)              (B)               (C)
                                                     Percentage Point
  Age Group        Jan.-Aug. 2000   Jan.-Aug. 2010       Change
     16+                64.4             58.5              -5.9
    16-19               46.1             26.6             -19.5
    20-24               72.2             60.4             -11.8
    25-29               81.1             73.0              -8.1
    30-34               82.0             74.7              -7.3
    35-44               82.1             76.3              -5.8
    45-54               80.5             74.8              -5.7
    55-64               57.7             60.4              2.7
     65+                12.4             16.1              3.7
Employment/Population Ratios of Non-Enrolled 16-24 Year Olds
     in Illinois and the U.S. By Educational Attainment,
                     2009 Annual Average
100%
90%                                                                         86.6% 88.1%

80%                                                       76.3% 75.1%

70%                           62.8% 61.9%
60%
50%      44.5%
                 40.5%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
       <12 or 12, No H.S.   H.S. Diploma/GED          Some College, No   Bachelor's or Higher
            Diploma                                      Diploma               Degree

                                      U.S.     Illinois
Full-Time Employment/ Population Ratios of 16-24 Year Olds By
 Educational Attainment, U.S. and Illinois, 2009 Annual Average



70%
                                                                            59.6% 59.8%
60%
                                                         51.8%
50%                                                              47.6%
                             39.9%
40%                                  35.1%

30%     25.9%
                21.0%
20%

10%

 0%
      <12 or 12, No H.S.   H.S. Diploma/GED         Some College, No     Bachelor's or Higher
           Diploma                                     Diploma                 Degree

                                       U.S.   Illinois
Employment Rates of 16-29 Year Old Dropouts in the U.S. By
                Race-Ethnic Group, 2007 and 2010   

                       (A)             (B)                   (C)

                                                       Percentage Point
Race-Ethnic Group     2007        Jan.-Oct. 2010           Change

       All             55.5            45.7                  -9.8

      Black            39.7            29.4                 -10.3

    Hispanic           63.5            56.5                  -7.0

      White            53.1            41.8                 -11.3
Percent of 16-24 Year Old High School Dropouts Who Were
Jobless At the Time of 2009 Survey By Race-Ethnic Group, City
                  of Chicago and Illinois, 2009
90.0%
                              82.4%
                      79.6%
80.0%

70.0%                                                               66.8%
                                                                            62.3%
60.0%   56.8% 57.0%                                 55.7%
                                                            49.4%
50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
           White         Black                        Hispanic         Total

                               Chicago   Illinois
Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 16-24 Year Old Males
         By Educational Attainment, U.S. and Illinois, 2009
                     (Including Zero Earners)
  30,000
                                                                                                   27,541
                                                                                                            26,354

  25,000


  20,000                                                               19,095 18,776
E
a
r
n                                        14,019
i 15,000
n                                                 12,516
g
s
                 9,475
  10,000
                         7,328

   5,000


       0
           <12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma   H.S. Diploma/GED          Some College, No Diploma   Bachelor's or Higher Degree

                                                   U.S.    Illinois
Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 16-24 Year Old Females
        By Educational Attainment, U.S. and Illinois, 2009
                    (Including Zero Earners)

  30,000


  25,000                                                                                          23,903 24,254


  20,000
E
a
r
n                                                                      14,022 13,466
i 15,000
n
g
s
  10,000                                  9,153   9,351


                 4,626   4,689
   5,000


       0
           <12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma   H.S. Diploma/GED          Some College, No Diploma Bachelor's or Higher Degree

                                                  U.S.     Illinois
Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Olds (Excluding 18-22
   Years Old Students) in the U.S. by Educational Attainment,
             1979-2009 (Earnings in 2009 Dollars)

   Educational                            Absolute Change,   Percent Change,
   Attainment       1979        2009        1979-2008          1979-2009
<12 or 12, No
H.S. Diploma      885,161     652,277        -232,884             -26.3
H.S. Diploma/
GED               1,226,563   1,050,306      -176,257             -14.4
Some College,
No Diploma        1,497,003   1,377,944       -119,059            -8.0

Bachelor Degree   2,110,084   2,247,568       137,484             +6.5
Master's or
Higher Degree     2,708,079   3,163,556       455,478            +16.8

Total             1,359,523   1,556,761       197,237            +14.5
Percent of 16-24 Years Old Men Who Were Incarcerated by
 Educational Attainment, Illinois and U.S., 2009 Annual Average

12.0
          10.1
10.0             9.2

 8.0


 6.0


 4.0
                                   2.5                                                  2.5
                             2.1                                                  2.1
 2.0
                                                0.4   0.7
                                                                 0.2   0.1
 0.0
       <12 or 12, No H.S. H.S. Diploma/GED Some College, No BA or Higher Degree    Total
            Diploma                           Diploma

                                           Illinois   U.S.
Percent of 16-24 Years Old Male High School Dropouts Who
  Were Incarcerated in Illinois and U.S., 2009 Annual Average


25.0
                           22.5
                    21.7

20.0



15.0

                                                            Illinois
                                               10.1
10.0                                                  9.2   U.S.

              5.7                       6.2
        5.4
 5.0                              3.6


 0.0
         White        Black       Hispanic       Total
Change in Statewide High School Graduation Rates in Four States That
                Implemented the National Governors Association's
                         4-Year Cohort Graduation Rate
100
                       95
                                                              91.2
                                         89.9
 90                                                                           87.1
      85.8

                                                                       79.3
 80                                              77.8
             75.5

                            70.3
 70



 60



 50



 40
      Michigan       North Carolina        Indiana            Connecticut      Illinois

                        Before NGA Cohort Rate       NGA Cohort Rate
Smart Program Investments
G Keeping Truant, Suspended & Expelled Students In School
G Re-Enrolling Students Who Have Dropped Out of School
Estimated Illinois Dropouts,
                        Ages 15-20, in 2009
                                  2005             2006               2007                  2008             2009
                              F                F, S               F, S, J             F, S, J, S         F, S, J, S
Class of 2008
                                    7,708             13,613             19,629             27,663              27,663
                                               F                  F, S                F, S, J            F, S, J, S
Class of 2009
                                                       6,356             12,273             18,528              25,001
                                                                  F                   F,S                F, S, J
Class of 2010
                                                                            6,815           13,958              18,631
                                                                                      F                  F, S
Class of 2011
                                                                                                6,428           12,831
                                                                                                         F
Class of 2012
                                                                                                                   4,732
                                               Estimated total youth
                                               out of school in 2009
                                                                                                             88,858

Source: Estimates built from ISBE End of Year Reports "High School Dropouts by Grade, Gender, and Racial/Ethnic
Category," 2004 - 2009. the most recent data available. ASN compiles ISBE dropout data by class and grade in school (9th -
12th) over the course of 5 years to estimate the total number of students, ages 15 - 20, in a given year. ASN estimates that
freshman are 15 - 16 yrs old, sophomores are 16 - 17, juniors are 17 - 18, and seniors are 18 - 19.
Funding for Illinois’ High-Risk
 Students Provides a Strong
  “Return on Investment”
    Each
Gradua*ng
High‐Risk
Student


           Over
Their
Life*me:

•  Earns
$400,000
more
in
wages
vs.
a
high

   school
dropout

•  Saves
$292,000
for
taxpayers

Closing the Gap
    For High-Risk Students
       RESTORE
AND
EXPAND
FUNDING

•  $30
Million
—


   Truants’
Alterna*ve
Op*onal
and
Educa*on

   Program
(TAOEP)

•  $30
Million
—


   Regional
Safe
Schools
Program

   (RSSP)

•  $25
Million
—


   Illinois
Hope
and
Opportunity
Pathways
through

   Educa*on

   (I
HOPE)

Smart Program Investments
G Keeping Truant, Suspended  Expelled Students In School
G Re-Enrolling Students Who Have Dropped Out of School

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Dec 6 power point mclaughlin asn 12-3-10

  • 1. Smart Program Investments G Keeping Truant, Suspended & Expelled Students In School G Re-Enrolling Students Who Have Dropped Out of School
  • 2. Le#
Behind
in
the
Labor
Market:
The
Con4nued
 Deteriora4on
of
Employment
Opportuni4es
for
 Young
High
School
Dropouts
in
the
U.S
and
Illinois
 Joseph
McLaughlin
 Center
for
Labor
Market
Studies
 Northeastern
University
 Boston,
MassachuseKs
 December
2010

  • 3. Changes in Civilian Employment in the U.S. from November- December 2007 – September-October 2010 by Major Age Group (Seasonally Adjusted*) 
 November- Change in December September- Employed Age Group 2007 October 2010 Persons 16+ 146,328 139,226 (7,102) 16-24 19,727 17,097 (2,630) 25-29(1) 16,432 15,476 (956) 16-29 36,159 32,573 (3,586) 55+ 26,209 28,039 1,830 (1)
The
25‐29
year
old
age
was
seasonally
adjusted
using
the
same
adjustment
factor
for
all
workers
16
and
older.

  • 4. Percentage Point Changes in the Employment/Population Ratios of U.S. Adults By Age Group, January-August 2000 to January- August 2010 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 
 (A) (B) (C) Percentage Point Age Group Jan.-Aug. 2000 Jan.-Aug. 2010 Change 16+ 64.4 58.5 -5.9 16-19 46.1 26.6 -19.5 20-24 72.2 60.4 -11.8 25-29 81.1 73.0 -8.1 30-34 82.0 74.7 -7.3 35-44 82.1 76.3 -5.8 45-54 80.5 74.8 -5.7 55-64 57.7 60.4 2.7 65+ 12.4 16.1 3.7
  • 5. Employment/Population Ratios of Non-Enrolled 16-24 Year Olds in Illinois and the U.S. By Educational Attainment, 2009 Annual Average 100% 90% 86.6% 88.1% 80% 76.3% 75.1% 70% 62.8% 61.9% 60% 50% 44.5% 40.5% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <12 or 12, No H.S. H.S. Diploma/GED Some College, No Bachelor's or Higher Diploma Diploma Degree U.S. Illinois
  • 6. Full-Time Employment/ Population Ratios of 16-24 Year Olds By Educational Attainment, U.S. and Illinois, 2009 Annual Average 70% 59.6% 59.8% 60% 51.8% 50% 47.6% 39.9% 40% 35.1% 30% 25.9% 21.0% 20% 10% 0% <12 or 12, No H.S. H.S. Diploma/GED Some College, No Bachelor's or Higher Diploma Diploma Degree U.S. Illinois
  • 7. Employment Rates of 16-29 Year Old Dropouts in the U.S. By Race-Ethnic Group, 2007 and 2010 
 (A) (B) (C) Percentage Point Race-Ethnic Group 2007 Jan.-Oct. 2010 Change All 55.5 45.7 -9.8 Black 39.7 29.4 -10.3 Hispanic 63.5 56.5 -7.0 White 53.1 41.8 -11.3
  • 8. Percent of 16-24 Year Old High School Dropouts Who Were Jobless At the Time of 2009 Survey By Race-Ethnic Group, City of Chicago and Illinois, 2009 90.0% 82.4% 79.6% 80.0% 70.0% 66.8% 62.3% 60.0% 56.8% 57.0% 55.7% 49.4% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% White Black Hispanic Total Chicago Illinois
  • 9. Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 16-24 Year Old Males By Educational Attainment, U.S. and Illinois, 2009 (Including Zero Earners) 30,000 27,541 26,354 25,000 20,000 19,095 18,776 E a r n 14,019 i 15,000 n 12,516 g s 9,475 10,000 7,328 5,000 0 <12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College, No Diploma Bachelor's or Higher Degree U.S. Illinois
  • 10. Mean Annual Earnings of Non-Enrolled 16-24 Year Old Females By Educational Attainment, U.S. and Illinois, 2009 (Including Zero Earners)
 30,000 25,000 23,903 24,254 20,000 E a r n 14,022 13,466 i 15,000 n g s 10,000 9,153 9,351 4,626 4,689 5,000 0 <12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College, No Diploma Bachelor's or Higher Degree U.S. Illinois
  • 11. Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Olds (Excluding 18-22 Years Old Students) in the U.S. by Educational Attainment, 1979-2009 (Earnings in 2009 Dollars) Educational Absolute Change, Percent Change, Attainment 1979 2009 1979-2008 1979-2009 <12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 885,161 652,277 -232,884 -26.3 H.S. Diploma/ GED 1,226,563 1,050,306 -176,257 -14.4 Some College, No Diploma 1,497,003 1,377,944 -119,059 -8.0 Bachelor Degree 2,110,084 2,247,568 137,484 +6.5 Master's or Higher Degree 2,708,079 3,163,556 455,478 +16.8 Total 1,359,523 1,556,761 197,237 +14.5
  • 12. Percent of 16-24 Years Old Men Who Were Incarcerated by Educational Attainment, Illinois and U.S., 2009 Annual Average 12.0 10.1 10.0 9.2 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 <12 or 12, No H.S. H.S. Diploma/GED Some College, No BA or Higher Degree Total Diploma Diploma Illinois U.S.
  • 13. Percent of 16-24 Years Old Male High School Dropouts Who Were Incarcerated in Illinois and U.S., 2009 Annual Average
 25.0 22.5 21.7 20.0 15.0 Illinois 10.1 10.0 9.2 U.S. 5.7 6.2 5.4 5.0 3.6 0.0 White Black Hispanic Total
  • 14. Change in Statewide High School Graduation Rates in Four States That Implemented the National Governors Association's 4-Year Cohort Graduation Rate 100 95 91.2 89.9 90 87.1 85.8 79.3 80 77.8 75.5 70.3 70 60 50 40 Michigan North Carolina Indiana Connecticut Illinois Before NGA Cohort Rate NGA Cohort Rate
  • 15. Smart Program Investments G Keeping Truant, Suspended & Expelled Students In School G Re-Enrolling Students Who Have Dropped Out of School
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Estimated Illinois Dropouts, Ages 15-20, in 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F F, S F, S, J F, S, J, S F, S, J, S Class of 2008 7,708 13,613 19,629 27,663 27,663 F F, S F, S, J F, S, J, S Class of 2009 6,356 12,273 18,528 25,001 F F,S F, S, J Class of 2010 6,815 13,958 18,631 F F, S Class of 2011 6,428 12,831 F Class of 2012 4,732 Estimated total youth out of school in 2009 88,858 Source: Estimates built from ISBE End of Year Reports "High School Dropouts by Grade, Gender, and Racial/Ethnic Category," 2004 - 2009. the most recent data available. ASN compiles ISBE dropout data by class and grade in school (9th - 12th) over the course of 5 years to estimate the total number of students, ages 15 - 20, in a given year. ASN estimates that freshman are 15 - 16 yrs old, sophomores are 16 - 17, juniors are 17 - 18, and seniors are 18 - 19.
  • 25. Funding for Illinois’ High-Risk Students Provides a Strong “Return on Investment” Each
Gradua*ng
High‐Risk
Student

 Over
Their
Life*me:
 •  Earns
$400,000
more
in
wages
vs.
a
high
 school
dropout
 •  Saves
$292,000
for
taxpayers

  • 26. Closing the Gap For High-Risk Students RESTORE
AND
EXPAND
FUNDING
 •  $30
Million
—

 Truants’
Alterna*ve
Op*onal
and
Educa*on
 Program
(TAOEP)
 •  $30
Million
—

 Regional
Safe
Schools
Program
 (RSSP)
 •  $25
Million
—

 Illinois
Hope
and
Opportunity
Pathways
through
 Educa*on
 (I
HOPE)

  • 27. Smart Program Investments G Keeping Truant, Suspended Expelled Students In School G Re-Enrolling Students Who Have Dropped Out of School