1. DFW Real Estate
“State of the Market”
David L. Fair & Britt Fair
L
Hexter-
Hexter-Fair Title Company
February 19, 2009

2. Roadmap of Today’s Discussion
p y
Current state of the DFW housing market
The big difference between the DFW
economy and housing market and those of
y g
the rest of the US
The “ace in the hole” for housing
ace hole
Conclusions

3. “State of the Market”
The most important word is “certainty”
The current economic uncertainty keeps people/businesses from
making big decisions, such as purchasing a home
Last month’s inauguration is first step to “certainty”
Ongoing government intervention is another key to repairing
“certainty”
Bailouts of Wall Street firms (both the equity infusions and purchases of
“bad assets”) to help keep liquidity in the market
bad
Infusion in other areas (automakers, secondary mortgage market, etc.)
trying to stimulate economy and maintain jobs
Foreclosure relief plan to help consumers is likely in next tranche of
TARP money

4. Today’s Market
NTREIS S l – YTD D ‘08
Sales Dec‘08
% Change % Change Average % Change
# of vs.
vs Prior Average vs.
vs Prior Days on vs.
vs Prior
Sales Year Sale Price Year Market Year
Allen 1,248 -19% $243,508 4% 82 19%
McKinney 1,978 -22% $221,887 -2% 79 10%
210 -14%
14% $126,839
$126 839 -1%
1% 91 -1%
1%
Anna
114 -34% $180,638 -3% 112 -2%
Melissa
Fairview/Lucas 260 -8% $363,898 7% 93 18%
Frisco 2,790 -10% $295,517 1% 89 16%
Plano 3,429 -16% $274,276 -1% 68 24%
Carrollton/F.Branch 1,647 -11% $191,783 6% 61 11%
Richardson 1,025 -19% $172,970 -2% 63 13%
Dallas Far N 938 -26%
26% $346,029
$346 029 2% 75 34%
Dallas NE 572 -20% $252,695 2% 61 20%
Dallas N 510 -28% $983,753 5% 102 44%
Dallas E 2,096 -18% $252,360 -1% 77 20%
Park Cities 658 -16% $1,221,166 0% 93 39%

5. Today’s Market, cont’d
DFW S l YTD D ’08 (
Sales Dec’08 (page 1)
# sales YTD % change vs.
(12 mos 2008) prior year
i
Sale P i R
S l Price Range
$1 to $19,999 757 45%
$20,000 to $29,999 1225 40%
$30,000 to $39,999 1669
669 3%
32%
$40,000 to $49,999 1998 12%
$50,000 to $59,999 2042 0%
$60,000 to $69,999 2429 -2%
$70,000 to $
$ $79,999 2,937 -7%
$80,000 to $89,999 3,376 -14%
$90,000 to $99,999 3,493 -15%
$100,000
$100 000 to $109 999
$109,999 3,350
3 350 -21%
$110,000 to $119,999 4,051 -20%
$120,000 to $129,999 4,488 -18%
$130,000 to $139,999 4,125 -18%
$140,000 to $149,999 3,661 -17%

6. Today’s Market, cont’d
DFW S l YTD D ’08 (
Sales Dec’08 (page 2)
# sales YTD % change vs.
(12
( mos 2008) ) p
prior year
y
Sale Price Range
g
$150,000 to $159,999 3,354 -20%
$160,000 to $169,999 3,109 -21%
$170,000 to $179,999 2,775 -19%
$180,000
$180 000 to $189 999
$189,999 2,429
2 429 -15%
$190,000 to $199,999 1,975 -17%
$200,000 to $249,999 7,323 -15%
$250,000 to $299,999 4,777 -13%
$300,000 to $399,999
$300 000 t $399 999 4,921
4 921 -18%
18%
$400,000 to $499,999 2,194 -17%
$500,000 to $599,999 1,003 -18%
$600,000 to $699,999 661 -17%
$700,000 to $799,999 452 -18%
$800,000 to $899,999 258 -27%
$900,000 to $999,999 185 -20%
$1,000,000
$1 000 000 and more 822 -11%
11%
Total 75,839 -14%

7. NTREIS Dollar Volume S ce 2004
S o a o u e Since 00

8. Interest Rates Near Historic Lows
te est ates ea sto c o s
Conforming rates have fallen to 5% and below
below,
down from over 6.4% as recently as Halloween
Decline in conforming rates driven by US Treasury’s
purchase of $50 billi i 4Q’08 and F d will
h f billion in 4Q’08, d Fed ill
purchase $500 billion in first half of 2009
Many experts p j
yp project these secondary market p
y purchases
by the US government will drive rates to 4.5% and below
Refi boom is currently underway, which then works its way
through economy, but not as many p p or homes will
g y y people
qualify as in last refi boom
Jumbo rates have not fallen as fast as those of
conforming loans

9. Sep’07 Spike in “Jumbo Spread”
Source: Freddie Mac & HSH Associates

10. Sp e
Spike in “Jumbo Spread”
Ju bo Sp ead
Spread between conforming and jumbo rates
continues to be much larger than normal
178 b spread on 2/18/09 per b k t
b.p. d 2/18/09, bankrate.com
(7.05% versus 5.27% conforming)
Increased spread likel slo ing do n some
likely slowing down
qualified homebuyers in higher price ranges
The spread will eventually return to a more
normal range with the return to “certainty”

11. Strong DFW economy keeps real
g y p
estate values up
Strong job creation
Continuing corporate and individual
g p
relocations
Oil & gas industry especially in the Barnett
industry,
Shale!
Barnett Shale created 83k jobs in 2007 and
generated $8.2 billion into the local economy

12. Employment Changes - 1/08 to 12/08, pg
py g / / , pg.1
Prelim Dec. Year/Year
Dec. 2007 2008 Change
State
Alabama 2,018,000 1,976,300 ‐41,700
Arizona 2,659,300 2,543,900 ‐115,400
Arkansas 1,206,400 1,187,700 ‐18,700
California 15,171,000 14,913,600 ‐257,400
Connecticut 1,706,500
1 706 500 1,677,200
1 677 200 ‐29,300
29 300
Florida 8,039,400 7,784,200 ‐255,200
Georgia 4,159,700 4,041,300 ‐118,400
Hawaii 626,000 612,600 ‐13,400
13,400
Idaho 657,300 628,800 ‐28,500
Illinois 5,986,500 5,885,800 ‐100,700
Indiana 2,994,900 2,883,000 ‐111,900
Kentucky 1,880,000 1,843,200 ‐36,800
Maine 619,800 608,100 ‐11,700
Michigan 4,227,600 4,054,600 ‐173,000
Minnesota 2,776,300 2,720,400 ‐55,900
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

13. Employment Changes - 1/08 to 12/08, pg
py g / / , pg.2
Prelim Dec. Year/Year
Dec. 2007 2008 Change
State
Mississippi 1,154,600 1,128,400 ‐26,200
Nevada
N d 1,293,300
1 293 300 1,261,100
1 261 100 ‐32,200
32 200
New York 8,781,100 8,661,200 ‐119,900
North Carolina 4,187,700 4,067,500 ‐120,200
Ohio 5,418,700
5 418 700 5,329,700
5 329 700 ‐89,000
89 000
Oregon 1,740,600 1,695,200 ‐45,400
Pennsylvania 5,808,300 5,732,100 ‐76,200
Rhode Island 490,800 468,800 ‐22,000
22,000
South Carolina 1,958,100 1,903,900 ‐54,200
Tennessee 2,806,800 2,742,700 ‐64,100
Texas 10,475,100 10,628,800 153,700
Utah 1,264,800 1,237,700 ‐27,100
Vermont 308,500 302,700 ‐5,800
Washington 2,958,300 2,920,200 ‐38,100
Wisconsin 2,882,100 2,819,500 ‐62,600
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. Job creation 1/08 to 12/08
/ /
US Metro Areas
12‐Month
R ank Metro Area J ob G rowth
1 Hous ton‐S ug arland‐B aytown 57,300
2 Dallas ‐F ort Worth‐Arling ton
43,300
3 S an Antonio
an Antonio 14 900
14,900
4 Was hing ton‐Arling ton‐Alexandria 11,800
5 Aus tin‐R ound R oc k 9,600
12‐Month J ob
hb
R ank Metro Area G rowth R ate
1 Hous ton‐S ug arland‐B aytown 2.2%
2 S an Antonio
an Antonio 1.8%
3 Dallas ‐F ort Worth‐Arling ton 1.4%
4 Aus tin‐R ound R oc k 1.2%
5 Virg inia B eac h‐Norfolk‐Newport News 1.0%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

15. Positive signs in DFW housing
g g
6.0 months’ inventory on home resale listings
Six months is generally considered equilibrium
g y q
Continued population growth offers support
DFW has only 3 1 months’ inventory of new
3.1 months
home (finished and vacant) inventory
Builders have shown significant restraint in
keeping housing starts low

16. PMI U.S. Market Risk Index:
US
DFW steady despite US uncertainty
On 1/14/09, The PMI Group released a study which
measures the riskiness of the 50 largest MSAs in the US
Risk measured as the % chance that home prices will be
lower in 2 years
The 5 markets with the highest risk:
g
1. Riverside, CA: 99.9% chance of price decline
2. Miami, FL : 99.9% chance of price decline
3. Fort Lauderdale, FL: 99.8% chance of price decline
4. Los Angeles, CA: 99.8% chance of price decline
5. West P l B
5 W t Palm Beach, FL 99.6% chance of price decline
h FL: 99 6% h f i d li

17. PMI U S Market Risk Index, continued:
U.S. Index
DFW steady despite US uncertainty
The 5 MSAs with the lowest risk of a price
decline in the next two years:
46.San Antonio : 1% chance
47.Pittsburgh,
47 Pittsburgh PA: <1% chance
48.Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown: <1% chance
49.Fort Worth-Arlington: <1% chance
49 F t W th A li t 1% h
50.Dallas-Plano-Irving: <1% chance

18. S&P Case-Shiller Index:
Case-
DFW flat relative to national price declines
Monthly analysis of price changes in 20 major
US markets
November’s price index released 1/27/08
Showed that NATIONAL prices had
declined by a record 18.2% year over year
However, Dallas area had just a 3.3% price
decline over that same period, which was
the best of the 20 markets measured

19. Housing’s “Ace in the Hole”
Inflation!!!
Typically considered to be something bad
yp y g
In fact, the Fed’s mandate is quot;to promote effectively the
goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and
moderate long term interest rates
long-term ratesquot;
However, today’s economic environment is
anything but typical
We are currently experiencing “DEFLATION”, which
governments hate even more than inflation

20. Housing’s “Ace in the Hole”, cont’d
How inflation will ultimately loom over us
US leaders (Congress, President, Treasury Secretary, the Federal
Reserve, etc.) doing everything possible to keep economy from
collapsing
ll i
Original $700 billion bailout
$350 billion for equity investments in banks
Remaining $350 billion to make other investments
Tax rebate(s) of 2008
Obama’s $800 billion “economic stimulus” approved this week
Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned by trillions of dollars in the last few
y
months from purchases of assets such as mortgages
The same thing is happening in many nations across the globe
Governments are printing money and throwing it at the p
p g y g problem!!!

21. Housing’s “Ace in the Hole”, cont’d
How inflation will help real estate
The value of commodities (gold, real estate, oil,
etc.) rises without any i
t)i ith t increase i underlying
in d l i
demand
Because real estate is typically purchased with the
leverage of a mortgage, this inflation will provide a
higher percentage return than other commodities
Such a rise will actually “bail out” many
homeowners who are “under water” on their
mortgages, p
g g , preventing future foreclosures
g

22. Housing’s “Ace in the Hole”, cont’d
Why governments might err toward inflation
Individuals on the brink of foreclosure get “bailed
out” without anyone having t go on record voting
t” ith t h i to d ti
for it
Banks get bailed out because their distressed
assets gain in value before they have to be
marked to market
Additional benefit of minimizing impact of defined
future payments (automaker pensions, Social
Security,
Security national debt payments etc )
payments, etc.)

23. Housing Market Crystal Ball
Seasonal uptick starting now that February is here, with March
as the unofficial start of the spring selling season
Refi boom to continue through first half of 2009
Construction to remain sluggish until summer
Building rebound date dependent on each neighborhood’s
supply/demand
Obama’s “economic stimulus” to positively impact spring market
Inflationary pressures toward the end of 2009 will make real
estate in stable markets like DFW an excellent investment
As “certainty” (from federal bailouts, interest rates, job security,
y( , ,j y,
inauguration, etc.) returns over the coming months, DFW
residential market is poised to rebound in the spring of 2009
National market will not rebound until 2010

24. Today’s Market
NTREIS S l – YTD J ‘09
Sales Jan‘09
% Change % Change Average % Change
# of vs. Prior Average
g vs. Prior Days on
y vs. Prior
Sales Year Sale Price Year Market Year
Allen 53 -32% $230,924 -12% 99 -10%
McKinney 83 -34% $219,710 -6% 79 -17%
10 -44%
44% $156,583
$156 583 41% 56 -40%
40%
Anna
A
2 -80% $267,500 44% 185 64%
Melissa
Fairview/Lucas 8 -38% $461,000 27% 69 -1%
Frisco 115 -22% $259,670 -4% 75 -26%
Plano 144 -30% $238,223 -8% 82 0%
Carrollton/F.Branch 53 -48% $175,341 -1% 71 -1%
Richardson 48 -9% $150,997 2% 85 25%
Dallas Far N 46 -12%
12% $287,946
$287 946 -13%
13% 69 -20%
20%
Dallas NE 21 -19% $212,429 -6% 63 3%
Dallas N 14 -48% $976,146 4% 165 81%
Dallas E 108 -18% $182,289 -21% 76 -4%
Park Cities 21 -45% $1,132,289 4% 147 65%

25. Today’s Market, cont’d
DFW S l YTD J ’09 (
Sales Jan’09 (page 1)
# sales YTD % change vs.
(1 mos 2009) prior year
Sale Price Range
$1 to $19,999 68 51%
$20,000 to $29,999 100 2%
$,
$30,000 to $39,999
$, 128 22%
$40,000 to $49,999 131 -11%
$50,000 to $59,999 154 -1%
$60,000 to $69,999 143 -4%
$70,000 to $79,999 166 -19%
$80,000 to $89,999 175 -26%
$90,000 to $99,999 155 -35%
$100,000
$100 000 to $109 999
$109,999 143 -27%
27%
$110,000 to $119,999 188 -30%
$120,000 to $129,999 165 -45%
$
$130,000 to $
, $139,999
, 162 -36%
$140,000 to $149,999 155 -33%

26. Today’s Market, cont’d
DFW S l YTD J ’09 (
Sales Jan’09 (page 2)
# sales YTD % change vs.
(1 mos 2009) prior year
Sale Price Range
g
$150,000 to $159,999 152 -24%
$160,000 to $169,999 97 -42%
$170,000 to $179,999 122 -29%
$180,000 to $189,999 92 -37%
37%
$190,000 to $199,999 71 -42%
$200,000 to $249,999 283 -32%
$250,000 to $299,999 178 -29%
$300,000
$300 000 to $399,999
$399 999 188 -31%
31%
$400,000 to $499,999 91 -22%
$500,000 to $599,999 31 -44%
$600,000 to $699,999 11 -69%
$700,000 to $
$ $799,999 13 -43%
$800,000 to $899,999 11 22%
$900,000 to $999,999 8 -11%
$1,000,000 and more
, , 21 -51%
Total 3,399 -27%