This document summarizes the challenges facing corporate management in turbulent times. It discusses 5 key forces: 1) the emergence of new regional economic blocks like China and India, 2) environmental impacts on industry from issues like sustainability and global warming, 3) the transition from a petroleum-based economy to renewable energy, 4) the effects of global warming on industry and trade, and 5) the restructuring of the global financial system. The document provides data and examples to illustrate each force and the volatility they create for corporate managers.
The chances in countries’ economies after World War II: Petroleum Economics i...AI Publications
Kurdistan region of Iraq represents a good case study to examine the effect of oil price, because most of its earning dependence on exporting crude oil. Kurdistan region of Iraq is one of the major oil exporting countries. Generally, the national income depends on crude oil. Oil revenue in Kurdistan region of Iraq covers 90 percent of Kurdistan region of Iraqi government’s budget and also Kurdistan region of Iraqi economy could be effect by would economic during economic problems. Thus, increasing oil crude oil price can effect on economic growth in Kurdistan region of Iraq. So it is crucial to use other resource instead of oil revenue as a new strategy to gain national revenue. The main objective of this study is to examine the effects of oil price and oil production value on economic growth. Annual growth rate, compound growth rate and correlation coefficient can be used to estimate of the data. The data is annual data which were converting a period of 21 years from 1995-2017. As a result, Economic growth is one of the most important sources of economic transformation because it reflects the community's ability to increase productive capacity and optimal investment and also sustainability requirement includes a diversified economy on the face of shocks, dynamically adopts technology and head accumulation human money, competitively can gain relative advantages compared to the other. Thus, it operates within stable, stable economic policies and economic development and there were positively statistically significance between oil price and GDP, oil production value and GDP.
MSC301- The Impact of Change in Oil Price Samiya Yesmin
Course: MSC301- Production-Operations Management
Sr. Lecturer: Md. Tamzidul Islam
This is paper on the impact of change in Oil Price, with regards to Supply Chain Management and production.
The Resource Curse and Oil Revenues in Venezuela And AngolaDvinz Oil & Gas,S.A
Dvinz Oil & Gas,S.A: To many people in Latin America, Hugo Chávez was a revolutionary hero who embraced the poor. rabbing control of Venezuela’s vast oil wealth, using its proceeds to fund social and anti-poverty projects, and expelling the free-market scolds from the I.M.F., the World Bank, and his country’s business establishment. On the other hand, Chávez was a leader dealing with the “resource curse” that has afflicted all too many developing countries.
The chances in countries’ economies after World War II: Petroleum Economics i...AI Publications
Kurdistan region of Iraq represents a good case study to examine the effect of oil price, because most of its earning dependence on exporting crude oil. Kurdistan region of Iraq is one of the major oil exporting countries. Generally, the national income depends on crude oil. Oil revenue in Kurdistan region of Iraq covers 90 percent of Kurdistan region of Iraqi government’s budget and also Kurdistan region of Iraqi economy could be effect by would economic during economic problems. Thus, increasing oil crude oil price can effect on economic growth in Kurdistan region of Iraq. So it is crucial to use other resource instead of oil revenue as a new strategy to gain national revenue. The main objective of this study is to examine the effects of oil price and oil production value on economic growth. Annual growth rate, compound growth rate and correlation coefficient can be used to estimate of the data. The data is annual data which were converting a period of 21 years from 1995-2017. As a result, Economic growth is one of the most important sources of economic transformation because it reflects the community's ability to increase productive capacity and optimal investment and also sustainability requirement includes a diversified economy on the face of shocks, dynamically adopts technology and head accumulation human money, competitively can gain relative advantages compared to the other. Thus, it operates within stable, stable economic policies and economic development and there were positively statistically significance between oil price and GDP, oil production value and GDP.
MSC301- The Impact of Change in Oil Price Samiya Yesmin
Course: MSC301- Production-Operations Management
Sr. Lecturer: Md. Tamzidul Islam
This is paper on the impact of change in Oil Price, with regards to Supply Chain Management and production.
The Resource Curse and Oil Revenues in Venezuela And AngolaDvinz Oil & Gas,S.A
Dvinz Oil & Gas,S.A: To many people in Latin America, Hugo Chávez was a revolutionary hero who embraced the poor. rabbing control of Venezuela’s vast oil wealth, using its proceeds to fund social and anti-poverty projects, and expelling the free-market scolds from the I.M.F., the World Bank, and his country’s business establishment. On the other hand, Chávez was a leader dealing with the “resource curse” that has afflicted all too many developing countries.
Oil is the major
source of energy from most of the developed as well as developing countries around the world.
Therefore a change in the supply of oil will significantly affect operations in most parts of the
world. There are a number of factors that affect the demand and supply of oil in the world.
- See more at: http://www.customwritingservice.org/blog/factors-affecting-demand-and-supply-of-oil
NFSA Arbitrage Sample Article: Age of Scare-cityDavid Alex
This was one of the feature articles for the NFSA Arbitrage Winter edition 2010. It included a feature Interview with Jeff Rubin, Former Chief Economist for the CIBC & Author of: *Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller*
Shale 2.0: Technology and the Coming Big-Data Revolution in America’s Shale O...Marcellus Drilling News
A new report issued in May 2015 by the Manhattan Institute. The report posits that new technology is rapidly lowering the cost to produce shale energy and that drillers will be able to turn a profit on much lower oil and gas prices than previously thought.
Harnessing Natural Resources For National Development: Solid Minerals As The ...Above Whispers
Speech by
H.E. Dr. Kayode Fayemi, CON
Minister of Solid Minerals Development
at the
3RD CHIEF (DR.) JOHN AGBOOLA ODEYEMI ANNUAL LECTURE
Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria | Friday, April 29, 2016
The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Development of Kurdistan Region of Iraq f...IJAEMSJORNAL
Kurdistan region of Iraq signifies a great case study to investigate the impact of oil price, for the reason that most of its producing reliance on exporting crude oil KRG is one of the main oil exporting regions. Usually, the national revenue relies on crude oil revenue in KRG comprises a great percentage of Kurdistan region of Iraqi government’s budget and also KRG’s economy can be impact by would economic during economic difficulties. Consequently, growing oil crude oil price can influence on economic development in Kurdistan region of Iraq. Therefore, it is important to utilize other resource instead of oil income as a different approach to increase region’s income. The key objective of this article is to investigate the impacts of oil price and oil production value on economic development. Annual growth rate, compound growth rate and correlation coefficient can be utilized to estimate of the data. The findings revealed that an economic development is one of the most significant sources of economic transformation since it reproduces the society's capability to rise productive volume and ideal investment and likewise sustainability obligation comprises an expanded economy on the face of shocks, dynamically implements technology and head accumulation human money, competitively can increase comparative advantages compared to the other. Consequently, it operates within steady, balanced economic strategies and economic growth and there was positively statistically significance between oil price and GDP, oil production value and GDP.
Oil is the major
source of energy from most of the developed as well as developing countries around the world.
Therefore a change in the supply of oil will significantly affect operations in most parts of the
world. There are a number of factors that affect the demand and supply of oil in the world.
- See more at: http://www.customwritingservice.org/blog/factors-affecting-demand-and-supply-of-oil
NFSA Arbitrage Sample Article: Age of Scare-cityDavid Alex
This was one of the feature articles for the NFSA Arbitrage Winter edition 2010. It included a feature Interview with Jeff Rubin, Former Chief Economist for the CIBC & Author of: *Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller*
Shale 2.0: Technology and the Coming Big-Data Revolution in America’s Shale O...Marcellus Drilling News
A new report issued in May 2015 by the Manhattan Institute. The report posits that new technology is rapidly lowering the cost to produce shale energy and that drillers will be able to turn a profit on much lower oil and gas prices than previously thought.
Harnessing Natural Resources For National Development: Solid Minerals As The ...Above Whispers
Speech by
H.E. Dr. Kayode Fayemi, CON
Minister of Solid Minerals Development
at the
3RD CHIEF (DR.) JOHN AGBOOLA ODEYEMI ANNUAL LECTURE
Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria | Friday, April 29, 2016
The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Development of Kurdistan Region of Iraq f...IJAEMSJORNAL
Kurdistan region of Iraq signifies a great case study to investigate the impact of oil price, for the reason that most of its producing reliance on exporting crude oil KRG is one of the main oil exporting regions. Usually, the national revenue relies on crude oil revenue in KRG comprises a great percentage of Kurdistan region of Iraqi government’s budget and also KRG’s economy can be impact by would economic during economic difficulties. Consequently, growing oil crude oil price can influence on economic development in Kurdistan region of Iraq. Therefore, it is important to utilize other resource instead of oil income as a different approach to increase region’s income. The key objective of this article is to investigate the impacts of oil price and oil production value on economic development. Annual growth rate, compound growth rate and correlation coefficient can be utilized to estimate of the data. The findings revealed that an economic development is one of the most significant sources of economic transformation since it reproduces the society's capability to rise productive volume and ideal investment and likewise sustainability obligation comprises an expanded economy on the face of shocks, dynamically implements technology and head accumulation human money, competitively can increase comparative advantages compared to the other. Consequently, it operates within steady, balanced economic strategies and economic growth and there was positively statistically significance between oil price and GDP, oil production value and GDP.
Is Human Reproductive Cloning Morally Permissible?Gwynne Brunet
The subject of human reproductive cloning is a complicated one which contains many issues that need to be understood, and considered; before a course of action can be taken. In regards to cloning, any decision that will be agreed upon, in our distant future, will not be simply black and white, but instead it will be a colorful array of restrictions, rules, laws, supervision, and ethical standards. In this paper, I will evaluate the facts, and determine, through moral reasoning, whether human reproductive cloning is morally permissible.
6 Growing Global Stresses and How to Handle Themguestec88d1
Courtesy of my friend Mitch Lawrie
M.Ed (Career Guidance) CDAA
B. Regional & Town Planning (Hons).
Open, and honest discussion and presentation on the factors faced by all of us right now. The next 20 years will be most telling for us and our planet.
There are some very good suggestions on what to do and how to prepare.
http://www.transitionwise.org/
Originally presented to NUS School of Geography (sustainability track). This presentation discusses energy and its global implications, as well as challenges and opportunities for Singapore.
Petrodollar tracking the flow of investments of oil windfalls today vs. 1970Rehan Ehsan
This thesis helps reader to track petrodollar flow of investment of Oil windfalls today as in 1970s. One should be able to understand best of petrodollar tracking flow after review of this writeup.
Research Paper: How much oil remains for the world to produce? Comparing asse...Energy for One World
ABSTRACT
This paper assesses how much oil remains to be produced, and whether this poses a significant constraint to
global development. We describe the different categories of oil and related liquid fuels, and show that public-
domain by-country and global proved (1P) oil reserves data, such as from the EIA or BP Statistical Review, are
very misleading and should not be used. Better data are oil consultancy proved-plus-probable (2P) reserves.
These data are generally backdated, i.e. with later changes in a field's estimated volume being attributed to the
date of field discovery. Even some of these data, we suggest, need reduction by some 300 Gb for probable
overstatement of Middle East OPEC reserves, and likewise by 100 Gb for overstatement of FSU reserves. The
statistic that best assesses ‘how much oil is left to produce’ is a region's estimated ultimately recoverable resource
(URR) for each of its various categories of oil, from which production to-date needs to be subtracted. We use
Hubbert linearization to estimate the global URR for four aggregate classes of oil, and show that these range from
2500 Gb for conventional oil to 5000 Gb for ‘all-liquids’. Subtracting oil produced to-date gives estimates of
global reserves of conventional oil at about half the EIA estimate. We then use our estimated URR values,
combined with the observation that oil production in a region usually reaches one or more maxima when roughly
half its URR has been produced, to forecast the expected dates of global resource-limited production maxima of
these classes of oil. These dates range from 2019 (i.e., already past) for conventional oil to around 2040 for ‘all-
liquids’. These oil production maxima are likely to have significant economic, political and sustainability con-
sequences. Our forecasts differ sharply from those of the EIA, but our resource-limited production maxima
roughly match the mainly demand-driven maxima envisaged in the IEA's 2021 ‘Stated Policies’ scenario. Finally,
in agreement with others, our forecasts indicate that the IPCC's ‘high-CO2’ scenarios appear infeasible by
assuming unrealistically high rates of oil production, but also indicate that considerable oil must be left in the
ground if climate change targets are to be met. As the world seeks to move towards sustainability, these per-
spectives on the future availability of oil are important to take into account.
The Long Emergencyby James Howard Kunstler, originally published.docxoreo10
The Long Emergency
by James Howard Kunstler, originally published by Rolling Stone Magazine | Mar 24, 2005
A few weeks ago, the price of oil ratcheted above fifty-five dollars a barrel, which is about twenty dollars a barrel more than a year ago. The next day, the oil story was buried on page six of the New York Times business section. Apparently, the price of oil is not considered significant news, even when it goes up five bucks a barrel in the span of ten days. That same day, the stock market shot up more than a hundred points because, CNN said, government data showed no signs of inflation. Note to clueless nation: Call planet Earth.
Carl Jung, one of the fathers of psychology, famously remarked that "people cannot stand too much reality." What you're about to read may challenge your assumptions about the kind of world we live in, and especially the kind of world into which events are propelling us. We are in for a rough ride through uncharted territory.
It has been very hard for Americans -- lost in dark raptures of nonstop infotainment, recreational shopping and compulsive motoring -- to make sense of the gathering forces that will fundamentally alter the terms of everyday life in our technological society. Even after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, America is still sleepwalking into the future. I call this coming time the Long Emergency.
Most immediately we face the end of the cheap-fossil-fuel era. It is no exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of cheap oil and natural gas underlie everything we identify as the necessities of modern life -- not to mention all of its comforts and luxuries: central heating, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, electric lights, inexpensive clothing, recorded music, movies, hip-replacement surgery, national defense -- you name it.
The few Americans who are even aware that there is a gathering global-energy predicament usually misunderstand the core of the argument. That argument states that we don't have to run out of oil to start having severe problems with industrial civilization and its dependent systems. We only have to slip over the all-time production peak and begin a slide down the arc of steady depletion.
The term "global oil-production peak" means that a turning point will come when the world produces the most oil it will ever produce in a given year and, after that, yearly production will inexorably decline. It is usually represented graphically in a bell curve. The peak is the top of the curve, the halfway point of the world's all-time total endowment, meaning half the world's oil will be left. That seems like a lot of oil, and it is, but there's a big catch: It's the half that is much more difficult to extract, far more costly to get, of much poorer quality and located mostly in places where the people hate us. A substantial amount of it will never be extracted.
The United States passed its own oil peak -- about 11 million barrels a day -- in 1970, and since then production has dropped st ...
A history of the solar century so far: a tale of disruption, denial, and exis...Jeremy Leggett
An account of the oil industry's response to climate risk and the emergence of low-cost solar since that late 1990s as seen by a bit-part player in the drama. As presented in the closing keynote at the UBS Renewables and Energy Transition Virtual Conference, 17th September.
Haggi I
Abdullah Haggi
ENGLISH 2O1O
Shannon Branfield
o6/o3t2ot6
t?umlan5*n.-Q -^(
resource .rffi,ce? The ambiguous "-#*r:"
"
$TgX::;:.-
dependence on violent conrlicd rournat of Peace no*,"@,7s7-776,
This article is relevant to my argument because it offers part of a solution to both the
rentier peace and resource curse theories, particularly for the oil-producing countries. Hence,
the maior argument in this reference is that both resource dependence and resource wealth per
capita should be considered. In essence, these two concepts should be taken into account
because only the availability of the extremely high per capita revenues mainly from oil
enables governments to attain internal stability. Notably, the empirical analysis of this
reference supports this hypothesis effectively. The research findings of this article state that
oil-wealthy nations ostensibly manage to maintain their political stability through an
amalgamation of protection by outsiders, high expenditure on the security apparatus, and
large-scale distribution. In comparison to the oil-poor nations and inconsistency to the rentier
theory, the reference states that oil-wealthy countries' institutions seem not to be particularly
characterized through clientelism and patronage.
Benes, J., Chauvet, M., Kamenikr 0., Kumhof, M., Laxton, D., Mursula, S., &Selody, J.
,ri- , Th. future of oil: Geology versus technolog,v.lnternational Journal of Forecasting,,{31(l)"
L"',_
j:,
207-22{,2015. Print
Haggr 2
Most importantly, this ret'erence is also relevant to my argument since it reconciles
and discusses two diametrically opposed perspectives about rvorld's oil production future and
prices. The article notes that the geological perspective expects that physical constraints shall
dictate the future evolution of prices and oil output. This perspective is supported by the
statistics that pofiray that rvorld oil production has deciined significantly since 2005 despite
the historically high prices. Additionally, spare capacity has also reduced to near historic
lows. On the other hand, the technological perspective of oil expects that higher oil prices
should eventually lead to a decisive eff-ect specitically on oil output through encouraging
technological solutions. Tl"ris perspective is supported by the fact that high prices since 2003
resulted in escalated revisions in production forecasts lbunded on a purel-v geological
perspective.
"-,i'
ir\-
r l;
Bromley, S. The United States and the control of world oil'. Government antl Oppositio{,',
,'''"
tt'
: 40Q1.225-255. 2005. Print.
I :'
This informative relerence is appropriate for my argument because it expounds oa the
drive to correct the world's oil, which is the fundamental driving torce that is trehind the
American foreign policy. Hence, the reference argues that instead of perceiving the American
foreign poliey as being driven by the US oil companies' expansionary forces that seek new-
mar ...
62707 1041 AMEnergyBulletin.net The Long EmergencyPa.docxevonnehoggarth79783
6/27/07 10:41 AMEnergyBulletin.net :: The Long Emergency
Page 1 of 5http://www.energybulletin.net/print.php?id=4856
Published on Thursday, March 24, 2005 by Rolling Stone Magazine
The Long Emergency
By James Howard Kunstler
A few weeks ago, the price of oil ratcheted above fifty-five dollars a barrel, which is about twenty dollars a barrel more
than a year ago. The next day, the oil story was buried on page six of the New York Times business section.
Apparently, the price of oil is not considered significant news, even when it goes up five bucks a barrel in the span of
ten days. That same day, the stock market shot up more than a hundred points because, CNN said, government data
showed no signs of inflation. Note to clueless nation: Call planet Earth.
Carl Jung, one of the fathers of psychology, famously remarked that "people cannot stand too much reality." What
you're about to read may challenge your assumptions about the kind of world we live in, and especially the kind of
world into which events are propelling us. We are in for a rough ride through uncharted territory.
It has been very hard for Americans -- lost in dark raptures of nonstop infotainment, recreational shopping and
compulsive motoring -- to make sense of the gathering forces that will fundamentally alter the terms of everyday life in
our technological society. Even after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, America is still sleepwalking into the future. I call this
coming time the Long Emergency.
Most immediately we face the end of the cheap-fossil-fuel era. It is no exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of
cheap oil and natural gas underlie everything we identify as the necessities of modern life -- not to mention all of its
comforts and luxuries: central heating, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, electric lights, inexpensive clothing, recorded
music, movies, hip-replacement surgery, national defense -- you name it.
The few Americans who are even aware that there is a gathering global-energy predicament usually misunderstand the
core of the argument. That argument states that we don't have to run out of oil to start having severe problems with
industrial civilization and its dependent systems. We only have to slip over the all-time production peak and begin a
slide down the arc of steady depletion.
The term "global oil-production peak" means that a turning point will come when the world produces the most oil it will
ever produce in a given year and, after that, yearly production will inexorably decline. It is usually represented
graphically in a bell curve. The peak is the top of the curve, the halfway point of the world's all-time total endowment,
meaning half the world's oil will be left. That seems like a lot of oil, and it is, but there's a big catch: It's the half that is
much more difficult to extract, far more costly to get, of much poorer quality and located mostly in places where the
people hate us. A substantial amount of it will never be extracted.
Th.
Similar to 971229 Ethics [Compatibility Mode] (20)
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Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
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971229 Ethics [Compatibility Mode]
1. Corporate Management
in T b l t Ti
i Turbulent Times
By Dr. Allen Yeh,
Dec 29th, 2008/12/28
1
2. “In turbulent times, an enterprise has to be managed both to
, p g
withstand sudden blow and to avail itself of sudden unexpected
opportunities.
opportunities
This means that in turbulent times, the fundamentals have to
be managed, and managed well”
--Peter F. Drucker, Managing in Turbulent Times 1980
Peter Times”-1980
2
3. The Year 2008 will go down in history as one of the most turbulent
period since WWII, if not since the 1930 “ Great Depression”
-Just look at some examples:
In July 2008, oil was trading at an all time high of 147USDs/barrel-and is around
40USDs at the moment-projected to go down to mid 30’s in early 09
Daily chartered rate for large bulk cargo ship a few months ago, was close to
240,000USDs/D, and is now only about 1% of this-a reduction of 99% in less than
6 months
In stock markets, the decline is also un-unprecedented -if you buy 1,000USDs of
Delta Airline a year ago, you would have 49.0USDs left today; -If you had
p
purchased 1,000USDs worth of AIG one year ago, you would have 33.0USDs today
, y g ,y y
The prices of world’s major commodities, such as steel, aluminum, etc are also
declined by more than 50% in a short 6 months span
How can an organization cope with changes of such magnitudes? H
H i i ih h f h i d ? How
does “Corporate Manager” manages during time of extreme “Volatilities”
and “Turbulent”
Turbulent
3
4. The Five Key Fundamental Forces
y
I. The emergence of the new world order/regional
economic blocks
II.
II The Environmental Impacts on Industrial
Development /Cross Boarder Trade-How to Manage
“Sustainability”?
III. The Transition from Petroleum based economy to
“Renewable/Bio Energy”??
IV.
IV The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross border trade
V. The re-structuring of world financial system
4
5. I. The emergence of a new world order/regional
economic blocks.
The 21th century will over turn many of our basic
assumptions about economic life
The end of European domance of global politics
and economics
The decline of America as a economic super
power
Emergence of the new economic powers: China
China,
India, Russia and Brazil etc.
5
6. I. The emergence of a new world order/regional
economic blocks.
World Population from AD 1 to 2001
6
7. I. The emergence of a new world order/regional
economic blocks.
Population Growth from 1950 to 2050
7
8. I. The emergence of a new world order/regional
economic blocks.
Human Population in the Developed and
Developing Countries from 1950 to 2005
8
9. I. The emergence of a new world order/regional
economic blocks.
Economic Activity by Region in 2000 and 2050 (projected)
9
10. I. The emergence of a new world order/regional
economic blocks.
Annual Growth Rates from 1990 to 2005 vs.
Income Level in 1990
10
11. II. The Environmental Impacts on Industrial
Development / Cross Border Trade
The current trajectory of human activity is not subatainable
Population growth and consumption of resources such as farmland
farmland,
water, commodities will put severe strains on the world’s eco-system.
Rapid rate of consumption in energy resources, particularly oil—the
emerging of large population centers such as China, India, Brazil etc will
put further strain on world’s energy sources-
Environmental Mandates, such as restriction on use of hazardous
Mandates
chemicals in manufacturing processes and the EU’s WEEE recycling
mandates etc are all measures to regulate cross border trade.
The emergence of “CO2 abatements” are an important economic and
industrial policies
Globally,
Globally the trends of production and retail trades increasingly focusing
on issues such as :
-Global Warming; g
-Sustainability
-CO2 labeling 11
12. III. The Transition from Petroleum based economy to
y
“Renewable/Bio Energy”
“Oil is the world’s biggest and most pervasive business, the
greatest of the great industries that arose in the decades of
19th century. As we look toward the 21th century, it is clear
that mastery will certainly come as much as from a
y y
computer chip as from a barrel of oil…Until some alternative
source of energy is found, oil will have far reaching effects
found
on the global economy; major price movements can fuel
economic growth or contrarily drive inflation and kick off
growth,
recession.”
“Daniel Yergin” – President, Cambridge Energy Research Associates
12
13. III. The Transition from Petroleum based economy to
y
“Renewable/Bio Energy”
The drilling of oil from black rock for the making of
“Kerosene” in a small town called “Titusville” western
pennsylvania in 1850’s served as the origin of modern
petroleum industry, with Standard Oil Co then
dominated not only the US but the world’s petroleum
production and trade for many decades
decades.
Up until 1970’s US was the largest oil producer in the
world with d il outputs exceeding 10 MM b
ld i h daily di barrels/D.
l /D
13
14. III. The Transition from Petroleum based economy to
“Renewable/Bio Energy
Renewable/Bio Energy”
The Oil Shocks:
“ In 1861 oil was selling for 10USDs/barell, and quickly dropped to
0.5USDs due to lack of demand.
1. The 6 days war of 1967 -the 3rd Arab-Israeli War-oil flow was cut by
more than 60%,-Arab oil producers using “Oil” as weapon
, p g p
2. The second Arab-Israeli War of 1973-the Oil Embargo, oil prices
went from 5-6USDs/barrel to over 20 USDs as a result of the supply
disruption.
di ti
3. The 3rd Oil Shock: Oil price peaked around Nov 1985 to
31.75USDs/
31 75USDs/ barrel to 10.0USDs/barrel.
10 0USDs/barrel
4. The 4th Oil Shock: 2008-in July oil hit the historical height of
147USDs/ barrel and quickly dropped to around mid 30’s by Dec
08.
14
15. III. The Transition from Petroleum based economy to
“Renewable/Bio Energy
Renewable/Bio Energy”
Crude Oil Discoveries
15
16. III. The Transition from Petroleum based economy to
“Renewable/Bio Energy
Renewable/Bio Energy”
Crude Projections of World Oil Production
16
17. III. The Transition from Petroleum based economy to
“Renewable/Bio Energy
Renewable/Bio Energy”
Crude Oil Pricing Trend
17
18. III. The T
III Th Transition f
iti from Petroleum based economy t
P t l b d to
“Renewable/Bio Energy”
Fundamental questions:
1. Are we running out of oil? How long before the oil
stocks is depleted? -what are the alternatives?
2. What would be the long term price level of crude oil-
and its impact to the global economy?
3. Is this transition from the petroleum based economy to
an global economic order based on Renewable /Bio
energy”?
18
19. IV. The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross border trade
The long term trend of “Global Near Surface Temperatures” increases-
from 1850-2005
f 18 0 200
The rapid rise of “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”
Human activities have greatly increased emissions of some greenhouse
gases (called “Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases”).
Global warming causes p
g polar ice to thaw, sea levels to rise, and
, ,
increases the severity of extreme climate events (droughts, floods,
tropical storms).
The main anthropogenic GHGs are:
-carbon dioxide (CO2)
-methane (CH4)
-nitrous oxide (NO2)
-hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)
-perfluorocarbons (PFC)
19
-sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
20. IV. The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross border trade
With the objective of mitigating climate change most of
change,
the world’s countries signed the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in
1992, and the Kyoto Protocol in 1997.
Two t
T types of market:
f k t
1. A regulated market has greenhouse gas (GHG) emission limits
set by a regulatory body. Emitters have emission reduction
targets and can buy carbon credits to meet such targets.
2. A voluntary emission reduction market exists outside of any
regulatory mandate (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol), but there are
common understandings regarding project types, documentation
to be presented, etc.
20
21. IV. The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross border trade
Global Average Near-Surface Temperatures from 1850 to 2005
g p
21
22. IV. The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross border trade
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
22
23. IV. The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross border trade
Human Dominance or Alteration of Several Major
Components of the Earth System
23
24. IV. The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross b d t d
border trade
By Industry:
Energy
26% Landfill Efficiency, Fuel
Switching &
1033 as of May 2008 Registered
Composting,
Coal Mine & CH4 Chemical Cement CDM Projects
Avoidance 4% 15%
Oh
Other
1%
Renewable Energy 54%
Renewable Energy 54%
Perfluoro- By GHG:
carbon 0% HFC
Nitrous Oxide 2%
3%
26% Methane
Carbon Dioxide
69%
Source: UNEP Risoe CDM Pipeline, March 2008
24
25. IV. The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross b d t d
border trade
Source: State of the Voluntary Carbon Market, 2008, p. 7
25
26. IV. The global warming/impact to industrial development/
cross border trade
Benefits of GHG Redaction to Corporation
Contribution to climate change mitigation, society & sustainable
mitigation
development
Generate extra income for projects that reduce GHG emissions
and lead to achieve sustainable development goals
May improve process
May reduce costs
May demonstrate leadership
May fulfill corporate objectives
26
27. V. The re-structuring of world financial system
The global financial impacts to the US sub-prime sector and the subsequent
demises of some of the world’s first tier investment firms and banks, such as
Bear Stern, Lehman B th
B St L h Brothers, AIG, Fortis and many others have resulted in
AIG F ti d th h lt d i
hundreds of billions of loses across all sectors
The sever impact of “liquidies” of financial institutions not only cause the strain of
liquidies
the entire financial world, but also severely impacting sectors that are highly
dependent on “Financing” such as housing, auto, leasing, large purchases,
leverage buyouts, hedging, M/A transitions, etc. For instance, in the US it is
believed that between 20-30% of the decline in auto sales can be attributed to
the shortage of “Financing Facilities”.
g g
During the past 12 months, investor confident of financial service industries have
reached all time low, which are severely impacting the future of many of the
financial products promoted by world’s financial institutions.
Longer term, it is inevitable that a “Restructing” and “New Mode of Operations”
and “Hi h R
d “Higher Regulatory St d d ” will b i tit t d t ensure a much
l t Standards” ill be instituted to h
transparent and accountable financial system throughout the world.
27
28. Recommended Reading List
Jeffrey D. Sachs Common Wealth-Economic For a Crowed Planet, the Penguin Press
(NY), 2008
Ethan S H i Bem B
Eth S. Harris, B Bernanke's F d the Federal Reserve After Greenspan, Harvard
k ' Fed, th F d l R Aft G H d
Business Press, 2008
Daniel Yergin The Epic Quest for Oil Money & Power the Free Press (NY) 1992
Yergin, Oil, Power, (NY),
Al Gore, Earth In The Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit, Houghton Mifflin Co,
1992
Lester C. Thurow, Dangerous Current: The State of Economics, The Ramdom House,
NY, 1983
Peter F. Drucker, Managing in Turbulent Times, Harper Business Press, 1980
MT: E Neumayer, Weak versus Strong Sustainability: Exploring the Limits of Two
Opposing Paradigms 2nd edn; J Kahn The Economic Approach to Environmental
Paradigms, Kahn,
Resource Economics, Dryden Press, 2005
A Hoffman, Competitive Environmental Strategy: A Guide to the Changing Business
, p gy g g
Landscape, Island Press, 2000
28