Past, Present, Future Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters: Ecosystem health, Circulation, et al. Kincaid

1. Past
Present Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:
Future
Ecosystem health
Circulation et al.

2. Past
Present Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:
Future
Ecosystem health Tides
Winds
Circulation et al. Runoff
Density (air temp.)

3. Past
Present Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:
Future
Dan C. : What we know from buoy data
Ecosystem health Tides
Winds
Circulation et al. Runoff
Density (air temp.)

4. Past
Present Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:
Future
Dan C. : What we know from buoy data
Ecosystem health Tides
Winds
Circulation et al. Runoff
Density (air temp.)
Kincaid : Building tools for past, present, future climate impacts

5. Hydrographic ROMS Hydrodynamic
Data Computer Model
Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) Estuary divided into numerical boxes
Coupled flow/transport equations solved
Thanks to RI Sea Grant, NBC, NOAA - Hypoxia (CHRP)…..
ROMS & Data > Better predictive tools for RI waters

6. Hydrographic ROMS Hydrodynamic
Data 2005
PR
Computer Model
MHB
GB High resolution
Bay ROMS
2006 Model (RED)
NB
2007
99-01
2008
RIS
a) Spatially extensive 1) RIS-Bay ROMS & 2)
New England Shelf - Bay ROMS
Thanks to RI Sea Grant, NBC, NOAA - Hypoxia (CHRP)…..
ROMS & Data > Better predictive tools for RI waters

7. Climate Change: A regional view
What does climate change mean for Rhode Island?
Using data/ROMS in assessing the impact of climate change on
circulation & health of RI waters.

8. Climate Change: A regional view
What does climate change mean for Rhode Island?
Using data/ROMS in assessing the impact of climate change on
circulation & health of RI waters.
Quick Overview of Our Results:
VS.
Potential Changes in Climate :
1) Winds (daily to weekly)
2) Stratification (rainfall, surface heat)
3) Extreme rain events

9. Average Circulation from Data:
RI waters (summer)
Inflow - East Passage
Outflow - West Passage
Longshore at mouth

10. Average Circulation: RI waters
(summer)
Winter/Destratification Alters View:
RIS vertically mixed
Bay-Shelf exchange different

11. Average Circulation: RI waters
(summer)
Winter/Destratification Alters View:
RIS vertically mixed
Bay-Shelf exchange different
Big Question:
Warmer winters = different stratification & exchange?

12. Average Circulation: RI waters
(summer)
Biggest Exchange Events:
Northward to southward wind systems
(3-7 days)

13. Average Circulation: RI waters
(summer)
Biggest Exchange Events:
Northward to southward systems
(3-7 days)
1st: NORTHWARD WIND, stall
average flow

14. Average Circulation: RI waters
(summer)
Biggest Exchange Events:
Northward to southward systems
(3-7 days)
1st: NORTHWARD WIND, stall
average flow
2nd: SOUTHWARD WIND =
LARGE EXCHANGE EVENTS

15. Average Circulation: RI waters
(summer)
Biggest Exchange Events:
Northward to southward systems
(3-7 days)
Fundamental Question:
How are winds (@ 3-7 days) expected to change with climate?

16. ROMS & Data
Fundamental
Big Question: Question:
How are 3-7 day windsdays) expected to changeclimate?
winds (@ 3-7 expected to change with with climate?
Wind vs. Bay-Shelf exchange : Pfeiffer-Herbert PhD thesis

17. The Upper Bay has issues

18. The Upper Bay has issues……in chronic areas
Providence River
Greenwich Bay

19. The Upper Bay has issues……in chronic areas
Providence River
Greenwich Bay
Do we have the tools to understand these areas & how
climate might change the dynamic? Yes.

20. Three examples: Bay’s physical response not always as expected
Climate changes: System response
Winds (daily) Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Stratification Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Boom / Bust Rainfall Providence River (Data)

21. Climate changes: System response
Winds (daily) Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Tracers:
Surface-red
Bottom-blue
Flushing of tracers vs. Wind
(2006 tides, runoff, density, vary wind)
Greenwich
Bay

22. Climate changes: System response
Winds (daily) Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Tracers:
Surface-red
Bottom-blue
Flushing of tracers vs. Wind
(2006 tides, runoff, density, vary wind)
Greenwich
Bay

23. Climate changes: System response
Winds (daily) Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Tracers:
Surface-red
Bottom-blue
Flushing of tracers vs. Wind
(2006 tides, runoff, density, vary wind)
Greenwich
Bay
Seabreeze limits flushing

24. Hypothesis:
Wind controls flushing & water quality in Greenwich Bay.
Tracer distributions after 10 days of simulation.
No wind Strong Sea Breeze
Limit flushing
Summer simulations 2006, from Rogers, 2008

25. Hypothesis:
Wind controls flushing & water quality in Greenwich Bay.
Relationship not the rule of thumb….
How will climate-induced changes at daily - weekly scales influence this?
No wind Strong Sea Breeze
Limit flushing
Summer simulations 2006, from Rogers, 2008

26. Second example: Bay’s physical response not always as expected
Climate changes: System response
Winds (daily) Seabreeze limits flushing Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Stratification Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Key Pt.……expect to limit flushing…..

27. Climate changes: System response
Winds (daily) Seabreeze limits flushing Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Stratification ……enhances flushing….. Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Dye into Stratified water Dye into Mixed water
After 3 tide cycles After 3 tide cycles
Stratification
enhances
flushing Balt, PhD Thesis research

28. Third example: Bay’s physical response not always as expected
Climate changes: System response
Winds (daily) Seabreeze limits flushing Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Stratification ……enhances flushing….. Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Boom / Bust Rainfall Providence River (Data)
Key Pt…expect enhanced flushing????
Slow flush
Flushing Time
Rule of Thumb
Fast flush
low high
Runoff

29. Data & Models Show Otherwise:
Tilt Current Meters in Providence River
Improved Spatial & Time Information
2009 (3 months)
2010 (6 months..flood)
Bathymetric Map: Providence River - Edgewood
Save the Bay
Shipping Channel
Edgewood
Yacht Club

30. Data Reveal a Retention Gyre that is Insensitive to March Flood:
Opposite the basic rule of thumb
Flood
Figure. Mean velocity vector for Winter-Spring, 2010 TCM deployment. Flow speeds in cm/s.

31. Climate changes: System response
Winds (daily) Seabreeze limits flushing Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Stratification ……enhances flushing….. Greenwich Bay (ROMS)
Boom / Bust Rainfall Providence River (Data)
….alters view of flushing processes !
Slow flush Slow flush
Climate-induced
Flushing Time
changes may not
follow
Rules of Thumb
low high
Runoff

32. Summary:
Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change
Distributed
Hydrographic Data

33. Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change
Distributed
Hydrographic Data
Well-calibrated ROMS Model
Seekonk River to Rhode Island Sound

34. Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change
Well-calibrated ROMS Model:
A Powerful Simulation / Scenario Tool
Urban Estuary Example
3-D Flows Tracking
3-D Dye Transport
Providence River (Fields Pt WWTF)
Biogeochemical
Tracers

35. (1) Forensic & (2) Engineering Coastal Physical Oceanography:
A) Recent - present day: water quality vs. coastal ocean physics
B) Climate-induced changes to this relationship
All rivers & WWTFs tagged: e.g. Examine engineering scenarios for
Pawtuxet R. dye feeds shoal gyre enhanced flushing dyed shoal water
Edgewood
Retention (1) (2)
Gyre
Pawtuxet
River
Port Edgewood Channel
enhances flushing

36. 2001
2003
Urban waters.
Are there low oxygen nucleation zones?
What role does flushing (or retention) play?

37. Flushing Time using Fraction of Water Method
(assume complete mixing)
Simple estimates: ~4 days
Simple estimates: ~10 days

38. Flushing Time (63% out) vs. Wind
Q=20cms, Bottom

39. Calculate flushing times for cloud of tracers (63% gone)
Pathlines for 3 different floats over 5 days in 2006
End
Start
Red dots = position every 4 hours
Avg. wind

40. Retention in Greenwich Bay: Wind matters
Residual flows are predicted to be distinctly different in the two cases.
No wind NNE-ward wind
No sea Applied sea
breeze breeze
summer 2006 J.M. Rogers

41. Average Circulation: RI waters
(summer)
Winter:
RIS un-stratified : Exchange changes
RIS cross-flow:
1) Enhances Bay-RIS exchange
2) Related to stratification in RIS
Climate impact not always obvious

42. Climate Change: A regional view
What does climate change mean for Rhode Island?
IPPC 2007:
increased hurricane activity
increased precipitation ( > winter )
boom / bust rainfall
increased surface temperature