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<ul><li>A/Professor Dr Joachim Ribbe </li></ul><ul><li>University of Southern Queensland </li></ul><ul><li>E-mail:  [email...
<ul><li>Motivation </li></ul><ul><li>Hervey Bay and Inverse Estuary </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling </li></ul><ul><li>Summary ...
Motivation <ul><li>Aiming to better understand  </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>physics of Hervey Bay </li></ul></ul></u...
Motivation
Motivation
Motivation Observed change in total annual rainfall [mm] during the last 50 years. Source: Shi, G., Cai, W., Cowan, T.,  R...
Motivation 31 year (2055-2085) ensemble mean SST from four IPCC scenarios using the  CSIRO Model. Source: Cai, Shi, Cowan,...
<ul><li>Observed interannual climate variability  </li></ul><ul><li>Observed long-lasting climate trends </li></ul><ul><li...
Hervey Bay Source: Middleton et al. 1994; modified Tropic of Capricornia <ul><li>About 4000 km 2 </li></ul><ul><li>About 2...
Hervey Bay - Field Surveys Conductivity Temperature Depth Probe - CTD Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler - ADCP FRV Tom Mar...
Field Surveys December 2007 86 locations September 2004 46 locations August 2007 57 locations June 2008 59 locations May 2...
Temperature - Hervey Bay 9/2004  8/2007 12/2007  5/2008 6/2008  av     T av       a...
Salinity - Hervey Bay 9/2004  8/2007 12/2007  5/2008 6/2008  S av     S av     S av ...
Density - Hervey Bay 9/2004  8/2007 12/2007  5/2008 6/2008  av          ...
Salinity – December 2007
Density – December 2007
Inverse System – Hervey Bay S Coast Ocean
Inverse System – Hervey Bay S Coast Ocean
Inverse System – Hervey Bay “ Salt Fountains” (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
<ul><li>Summary: </li></ul><ul><li>Five surveys: 9/04, 8/07, 12/07, 5/08, 6/08; </li></ul><ul><li>Salinity distribution in...
Inverse System – Hervey Bay Follows the approach by Wolanski (1984) and de Silva Samarasinghe & Lennon (1987) who assessed...
Inverse System – Hervey Bay Water Balance: F + Q 1  = E + Q 2 Salt Balance:  Q 1   .  S 1  = Q 2   .  S 2 Condition for in...
Inverse System - Hervey Bay Ribbe, J.  2006.   A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia.  Estuar...
Ribbe, J.  2006.   A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia.  Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Scien...
Ribbe, J.  2006.   A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia.  Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Scien...
S 2  = 36.5 (salinity maximum zone); S 1  = 35.7 (salinity minimum, open ocean);  H = 20 m; e  = 0.5 cm . day -1    ~ 90 ...
Simulations by Mr Ulf Graewe <ul><li>Simulation of Salinity in Hervey Bay 1991/1992 </li></ul><ul><li>Simulation of densit...
<ul><li>In summary </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Five hydrographic surveys reveal hypersalinity zone; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul>...
<ul><li>Finances and Support: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Burnett Mary Regional Group </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Th...
<ul><li>See  http:// eprints.usq.edu.au   for manuscripts: </li></ul><ul><li>Shi, G .,  Ribbe, J ., Cai, W., Cowan, T. 200...
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Rainfall, evaporation & river runoff impacts on Hervey Bay salinity

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Presentation by Assoc. Prof. Joachim Ribbe from University of Southern Queensland regarding the role of rainfall runoff and river flow in controlling salinity profiles in Hervey Bay.

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Rainfall, evaporation & river runoff impacts on Hervey Bay salinity

  1. 1. <ul><li>A/Professor Dr Joachim Ribbe </li></ul><ul><li>University of Southern Queensland </li></ul><ul><li>E-mail: [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>http:// eprints.usq.edu.au </li></ul>Hervey Bay salinity and the role of rainfall, evaporation, river runoff in controlling salinity
  2. 2. <ul><li>Motivation </li></ul><ul><li>Hervey Bay and Inverse Estuary </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling </li></ul><ul><li>Summary </li></ul><ul><li>Acknowledgement </li></ul><ul><li>References </li></ul>Overview
  3. 3. Motivation <ul><li>Aiming to better understand </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>physics of Hervey Bay </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>climate of Hervey Bay </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Motivation
  5. 5. Motivation
  6. 6. Motivation Observed change in total annual rainfall [mm] during the last 50 years. Source: Shi, G., Cai, W., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J ., Rotstayn, L., Dix, M. 2008. Journal of Climate . In Press 1950 - 2000
  7. 7. Motivation 31 year (2055-2085) ensemble mean SST from four IPCC scenarios using the CSIRO Model. Source: Cai, Shi, Cowan, Bi and Ribbe , 2005. Geophysical Research Letters . Strongest warming in the Tasman Sea over the next 70 years Projected Sea Surface Temperature Changes
  8. 8. <ul><li>Observed interannual climate variability </li></ul><ul><li>Observed long-lasting climate trends </li></ul><ul><li>Persistent drought and declining rainfall </li></ul><ul><li>Projected future ocean warming to continue </li></ul>Motivation
  9. 9. Hervey Bay Source: Middleton et al. 1994; modified Tropic of Capricornia <ul><li>About 4000 km 2 </li></ul><ul><li>About 20 m mean depth </li></ul><ul><li>~$100 million commercial fisheries </li></ul><ul><li>Aquaculture </li></ul><ul><li>Rivers: Burnett, Mary, Elliot, Burrum </li></ul><ul><li>Fraser Island </li></ul><ul><li>Great Sandy Strait </li></ul><ul><li>Sand Spit </li></ul><ul><li>About 8000 years old </li></ul><ul><li>Climate variable and changing </li></ul>
  10. 10. Hervey Bay - Field Surveys Conductivity Temperature Depth Probe - CTD Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler - ADCP FRV Tom Marshall
  11. 11. Field Surveys December 2007 86 locations September 2004 46 locations August 2007 57 locations June 2008 59 locations May 2008 45 locations
  12. 12. Temperature - Hervey Bay 9/2004 8/2007 12/2007 5/2008 6/2008  av   T av   av   av   av 
  13. 13. Salinity - Hervey Bay 9/2004 8/2007 12/2007 5/2008 6/2008  S av   S av   S av   S av   S av 
  14. 14. Density - Hervey Bay 9/2004 8/2007 12/2007 5/2008 6/2008  av     av   av 
  15. 15. Salinity – December 2007
  16. 16. Density – December 2007
  17. 17. Inverse System – Hervey Bay S Coast Ocean
  18. 18. Inverse System – Hervey Bay S Coast Ocean
  19. 19. Inverse System – Hervey Bay “ Salt Fountains” (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
  20. 20. <ul><li>Summary: </li></ul><ul><li>Five surveys: 9/04, 8/07, 12/07, 5/08, 6/08; </li></ul><ul><li>Salinity distribution indicates inverse system; </li></ul><ul><li>Hypersalinity conditions seem to prevail; </li></ul><ul><li>Let’s learn from some modelling studies; </li></ul>Inverse System – Hervey Bay
  21. 21. Inverse System – Hervey Bay Follows the approach by Wolanski (1984) and de Silva Samarasinghe & Lennon (1987) who assessed the physical nature of three northern territory estuaries and a large inverse embayment. i.e. Spencer Gulf, SA. The model allows to assess the: <ul><li>persistence of inverse circulation </li></ul><ul><li>quantify salt discharges </li></ul><ul><li>residence time </li></ul><ul><li>lateral mixing </li></ul>Ribbe, J. 2006. A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science .  66, 550-558.
  22. 22. Inverse System – Hervey Bay Water Balance: F + Q 1 = E + Q 2 Salt Balance: Q 1 . S 1 = Q 2 . S 2 Condition for inverse estuary: E > F Ribbe, J. 2006. A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science .  66, 550-558.
  23. 23. Inverse System - Hervey Bay Ribbe, J. 2006. A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science .  66, 550-558. Elbe 750 m 3. s -1 . Rhine 2200 m 3. s -1 , Mississippi 17500 m 3. s -1 , Amazon 180000 m 3. s -1
  24. 24. Ribbe, J. 2006. A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science .  66, 550-558. E June = 139 m 3. s -1 E mean ~ E September = 232 m 3. s -1 E December = 324 m 3. s -1 Inverse System – Hervey Bay
  25. 25. Ribbe, J. 2006. A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science .  66, 550-558. Q s = E . S 1 Q s = 232 . 35.8 kg . s -1 Q s = 8306 kg . s -1 Range of 4000 – 14000 kg . s -1 using E min and E max Without any flushing, salinity to increase by about 3-5 ppt over the period of one year. Inverse System – Hervey Bay
  26. 26. S 2 = 36.5 (salinity maximum zone); S 1 = 35.7 (salinity minimum, open ocean); H = 20 m; e = 0.5 cm . day -1  ~ 90 days Ribbe, J. 2006. A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science .  66, 550-558. Inverse System – Hervey Bay
  27. 27. Simulations by Mr Ulf Graewe <ul><li>Simulation of Salinity in Hervey Bay 1991/1992 </li></ul><ul><li>Simulation of density-driven outflow </li></ul><ul><li>See /projects/HerveyBay/Ulf </li></ul>Inverse System – Hervey Bay
  28. 28. <ul><li>In summary </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Five hydrographic surveys reveal hypersalinity zone; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>E/F climatology indicates inverse conditions prevail; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Used a simple salt balance model; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Salt discharge rate is about 8,000-10,000 kg/s; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Residence time is about 90 days; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Based only on September 2004 hydrography; </li></ul></ul></ul>Inverse Estuary – Hervey Bay Ribbe, J. 2006. A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science .  66, 550-558.
  29. 29. <ul><li>Finances and Support: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Burnett Mary Regional Group </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The University of Southern Queensland </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The Hanse Institute for Advanced Study </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Queensland Sea Scallop Limited </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>People: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Dr Ian Brown and colleagues from, Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>My co-authors; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Prof. Jörg-Olaf Wolff, Dr Joanna Staneva, Mr Ulf Gräwe, University of Oldenburg, Germany </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mr Daniel Brieva, Research Assistant, USQ </li></ul></ul></ul>Acknowledgement
  30. 30. <ul><li>See http:// eprints.usq.edu.au for manuscripts: </li></ul><ul><li>Shi, G ., Ribbe, J ., Cai, W., Cowan, T. 2008. Interpretation of Australian summer and winter rainfall projections. Geophysical Research Letters . 35, L02702. </li></ul><ul><li>Shi, G., Cai, W., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J ., Rotstayn, L., Dix, M. 2008. Variability and trend of the northwest Western Australia Rainfall: observations and coupled climate modelling. Journal of Climate. In Press. </li></ul><ul><li>Cai, W., Cown, T., Dix, M., Rotstayn, L., Ribbe, J ., Shi, G., Wijffels, S. 2007. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters . 34, L14611. </li></ul><ul><li>Shi, G., Ribbe, J ., Cai, W., and Cowan, T. 2007. Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters . 34, L09706. doi: 10.1029/2007GL029528. </li></ul><ul><li>Ribbe, J . 2006. A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science .  66, 550-558. </li></ul><ul><li>Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi. D., Ribbe, J . 2005. The response of the southern annual mode, the East Australian Current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming. Geophysical Research Letters , 32, L23706. </li></ul><ul><li>Ribbe, J . , Wolff, J.-O., Staneva, J., Gräwe, U., 2007. Flushing time scales of a large Australian coastal ocean embayment from hydro-dynamic modelling. Environmental Modelling and Simulation , I n Press . </li></ul>References

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