7.1 Transparency 1
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Enoch introduces himself and explains that he will be teaching the students about risks and behaviors associated with growing up. He defines risky behaviors as actions that could endanger health or well-being. As teenagers are given more responsibility over their decisions, it is important to understand different risk behaviors and potential consequences. Enoch notes that while risky activities may provide short-term rewards, certain behaviors carry higher risks of leading to social, emotional, or physical problems. Learning decision-making skills can help assess risks and probabilities to make wiser choices.
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7.1 transparency 2
This document discusses probability and risk-taking behavior. It introduces the topic of understanding how likely different events are to occur, or their probability. It then provides some examples to help students grasp probability, such as the chance of being struck by lightning inside versus outside, and the risk of developing alcohol addiction for younger versus older people depending on drinking habits. The document emphasizes that probability depends on choices, personality, circumstances, and sometimes luck.
7.1 trans 2 teachers
This document discusses probabilities and risky behavior. It provides examples of probabilities for events like the sun rising tomorrow or being struck by lightning inside or outside during a storm. It also discusses the probabilities of developing alcohol addiction for a young person after one drink versus regular drinking, and for an older person after one drink. The key points are that we can never have a 100% probability, and that probabilities depend on choices, personality, circumstances, and sometimes luck. Regular or frequent risky behavior, like a young person drinking most weekends, increases the probability of negative consequences.
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This document discusses workplace safety. It notes that safety is a choice, not chance, and an unsafe work environment or unsafe acts can lead to accidents. Unsafe acts are often due to absent-mindedness, carelessness, casual approaches, or lack of discipline, knowledge, or awareness of dangers. The document encourages workers to ask questions if unsure, never assume anything, prioritize safety, and report or fix any unsafe conditions seen. Developing safe habits prevents permanent pain and regret from accidents.
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The document discusses making decisions and discusses several key points. It notes that while good decisions result from sensible thinking, the outcomes are not always good. It also discusses factors to consider when choosing a cell phone like models, features and prices. Additionally, it notes that decisions with more serious consequences need more careful consideration and relying on reliable information. The document closes by stating that any decision comes at a cost of time, energy and resources spent in order to make the best choice.
You're not so smart - Cognitive Biases
This document discusses cognitive biases, which are systematic ways that the framing of information influences judgment and decision-making in ways that deviate from rational objectivity. It notes that while cognitive biases sometimes make thinking faster, they can also lead to errors. It then explores four problems that contribute to cognitive biases: there is too much information to consider everything; not enough meaning is derived from limited information; quick decisions are needed; and memory is limited so not everything can be remembered. Finally, it provides examples of specific cognitive biases like the availability heuristic and the bias blind spot.
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This document discusses cognitive biases and how the human brain reasons compared to computers and robots. It explains that the brain assigns meaning to information in a way that can introduce logical errors, unlike computers which process data in a purely logical manner. Several common cognitive biases are described such as confirmation bias, conjunction fallacy, anchoring effect, and regression to the mean. Examples of animal cognition experiments in gorillas, dogs, and horses are provided to show how non-human animals can also exhibit logical reasoning abilities based on experience. The document concludes by offering tips on how to mitigate the impact of cognitive biases in decision making.
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Cognitive Biases and Bayesian reasoning
In the past four decades, behavioral economists and cognitive psychologists have discovered many cognitive biases human brains fall prey to when thinking and deciding. Cognitive biases are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment. These biases arise from errors of memory, social attribution, and miscalculations such as statistical errors or a false sense of probability. Some social psychologists believe our cognitive biases help us process information more efficiently, especially in dangerous situations. Still, they lead us to make grave mistakes. We may be prone to such errors in judgment, but at least we can be aware of them.
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Credits: Wikipedia, LessWrong.org
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This document discusses probability and risk-taking behavior. It introduces the topic of understanding how likely different events are to occur, or their probability. It then provides some examples to help students grasp probability, such as the chance of being struck by lightning inside versus outside, and the risk of developing alcohol addiction for younger versus older people depending on drinking habits. The document emphasizes that probability depends on choices, personality, circumstances, and sometimes luck.
7.1 trans 2 teachers
This document discusses probabilities and risky behavior. It provides examples of probabilities for events like the sun rising tomorrow or being struck by lightning inside or outside during a storm. It also discusses the probabilities of developing alcohol addiction for a young person after one drink versus regular drinking, and for an older person after one drink. The key points are that we can never have a 100% probability, and that probabilities depend on choices, personality, circumstances, and sometimes luck. Regular or frequent risky behavior, like a young person drinking most weekends, increases the probability of negative consequences.
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The document discusses making decisions and discusses several key points. It notes that while good decisions result from sensible thinking, the outcomes are not always good. It also discusses factors to consider when choosing a cell phone like models, features and prices. Additionally, it notes that decisions with more serious consequences need more careful consideration and relying on reliable information. The document closes by stating that any decision comes at a cost of time, energy and resources spent in order to make the best choice.
You're not so smart - Cognitive Biases
This document discusses cognitive biases, which are systematic ways that the framing of information influences judgment and decision-making in ways that deviate from rational objectivity. It notes that while cognitive biases sometimes make thinking faster, they can also lead to errors. It then explores four problems that contribute to cognitive biases: there is too much information to consider everything; not enough meaning is derived from limited information; quick decisions are needed; and memory is limited so not everything can be remembered. Finally, it provides examples of specific cognitive biases like the availability heuristic and the bias blind spot.
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This document discusses cognitive biases and how the human brain reasons compared to computers and robots. It explains that the brain assigns meaning to information in a way that can introduce logical errors, unlike computers which process data in a purely logical manner. Several common cognitive biases are described such as confirmation bias, conjunction fallacy, anchoring effect, and regression to the mean. Examples of animal cognition experiments in gorillas, dogs, and horses are provided to show how non-human animals can also exhibit logical reasoning abilities based on experience. The document concludes by offering tips on how to mitigate the impact of cognitive biases in decision making.
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In the past four decades, behavioral economists and cognitive psychologists have discovered many cognitive biases human brains fall prey to when thinking and deciding. Cognitive biases are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment. These biases arise from errors of memory, social attribution, and miscalculations such as statistical errors or a false sense of probability. Some social psychologists believe our cognitive biases help us process information more efficiently, especially in dangerous situations. Still, they lead us to make grave mistakes. We may be prone to such errors in judgment, but at least we can be aware of them.
Bayesian reasoning offers a way to improve on the native human reasoning style. Reasoning naively, we tend not to seek alternative explanations, and sometimes underrate the influence of prior probabilities in Bayes' theorem.
Credits: Wikipedia, LessWrong.org
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These are just three of the well-documented psychological traps that afflict most managers at some point, assert authors John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa in their 1998 article. Still, more pitfalls distort reasoning ability or cater to our own biases. Examples of the latter include the tendencies to stick with the status quo, to look for evidence confirming one’s preferences, and to throw good money after bad because it’s hard to admit making a mistake.
Luckily, techniques exist to overcome each one of these problems. For instance, since the way a problem is posed can influence how you think about it, try to reframe the question in various ways and ask yourself how your thinking might change for each version. Even if we can’t eradicate the distortions ingrained in the way our minds work, we can build tests like this into our decision-making processes to improve the quality of the choices we make.
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This document presents information about decision making from several presenters. It defines decision making as choosing between two or more options. Intuition and reasoning are described as two approaches to decision making. Problem solving involves identifying solutions, while decision making is the act of choosing between potential solutions. Cognitive development stages from childhood to adulthood are outlined in relation to decision making abilities. Different decision making styles like directive, analytical, and behavioral are also defined. The document concludes by outlining common factors that influence decision making like personal characteristics, culture, available information, and psychological aspects.
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According to Eric Berne, during first 5 years of life ,decisions about following crystallizes
Ourselves,
Our world and
Our relationships with others
These decisions are based on the pattern of strokes we receive from our parents and others which may be
Encouraging or
Disparaging
Based on these decisions, we assume one of four basic psychological life positions. (Discussed later)
Life positions determines our pattern of
Thinking,
Feeling, and
Behaving.
Our early existential decisions are reinforced by messages (both verbal and nonverbal) that we continue to receive during our lifetime.
It is also reinforced by the results of our games and interpretations of events.
Berne states that dysfunctional behaviour is the result of self-limiting decisions (made in childhood in the interest of survival) which culminate in an unhealthy life script.
Theories of life stages and human development
This document summarizes several theories of human development, including Piaget's stages of cognitive development, Kohlberg's stages of moral development, Erikson's stages of psychosocial development, and Gilligan's stages of care ethics. It describes the key aspects of each theory, including the stages and impacts on education and society. Developmental psychologists use theories like these to understand influences on human behavior.
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9.1 trans 1
Joe got into trouble by gambling and losing money. He didn't realize he was taking a high risk that could lead to problems. His uncle Enoch, a teacher, taught Joe about making sensible decisions regarding risky behavior. Enoch explained that risky behavior often has a high probability of bad consequences. Now Joe understands the problems gambling caused for him and his mother, and hopes to take chances more wisely in the future.
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This document outlines the key learning objectives and activities in a module on making sound decisions. Students are expected to: 1) Identify steps in making sound decisions; 2) Construct their own steps to make decisions; 3) Analyze outcomes of decisions for the common good; and 4) Value being responsible in personal decision making. The module discusses identifying decision making styles, providing solutions to problems, learning from past decisions, and factors that influence adolescent decision making. Students are guided through various self-reflection and scenario-based activities to improve their decision making skills.
7.5 trans 1
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This document summarizes the theories of Piaget, Erikson, and Kohlberg on child development and moral reasoning. [1] Piaget identified four stages of cognitive development from infancy to adulthood. [2] Erikson described eight psychosocial stages from infancy to late adulthood defined by psychosocial crises. [3] Kohlberg identified three levels of moral reasoning - pre-conventional, conventional, and post-conventional - defined by the reasons given for moral decisions.
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The document discusses decision making and outlines the importance of framing decisions properly through understanding the situation, identifying available options, and considering risks and potential outcomes. It explains that decision framing is the first step in the process and provides structure for making good choices, even if it does not guarantee the right outcome. Finally, it notes that framing involves interpreting information presented and how that presentation can influence the decision reached.
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The document provides definitions for various phrases related to following rules and coming to agreements or conclusions. It defines phrases such as "abide by" to mean follow the rules, "account for" to mean give an explanation, and "agree upon" to mean come to an agreement. It suggests it can be difficult for youngsters to abide by rules and gives examples of having to account for funds or chemicals and agreeing on an assessment format.
VVGR
The document summarizes opposing viewpoints on the effects of violent video games on adolescents presented by two groups, Vincent and Allen. Vincent argues that violent video games have harmful effects like desensitization to violence, increased aggression, and teaching youth how to perform violent acts. Allen counters that video games can have positive effects like fun, competition, and problem solving skills and cites inconsistent research findings and decreasing youth violence rates. They compromise that video games may have negative impacts if not played in moderation and with parental guidance coupled with other activities.
How to Break Bad News When No-One is Listening
This document discusses strategies for effectively delivering bad news to stakeholders who may not want to hear it. It notes that people often fear bad news because of potential impacts to reputation, finances, and other areas. It also discusses how past flawed analytics setups can undermine trust. The document then provides recommendations for softening the blow of bad news, such as being transparent with facts, documenting findings, speaking in plain language, providing solutions and follow up, and understanding the audience's fears and perspectives. Effectively communicating bad news requires justification, honesty and ensuring stakeholders are educated on issues.
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This document discusses using the metaphor of an iceberg, where only 10% is visible above water, to represent one's attitude. It notes that while external events may affect us, our attitude or reaction to those events is up to us and represents the 90% below water. It provides steps to change one's attitude, including making a decision to change, focusing on positives, developing gratitude, believing in oneself, and taking action. It suggests that having a positive attitude allows one to have positive days, while a negative attitude prevents that. Hard work, skills, knowledge and attitude are said to be the most important factors in one's life. The document encourages P6 students to do well in their upcoming exams.
The violent video game researchers
The document presents arguments from two students, Vincent and Allen, about the effects of violent video games on adolescents. Vincent argues that violent video games can have harmful effects by desensitizing youth to violence, increasing aggression, and teaching youth how to be violent. Allen counters that video games can have positive effects like being fun and promoting problem solving. They compromise that video games may be okay in moderation with parental guidance and a balance of other activities.
Book Sharing - Predictably Irrational
This document discusses various ways in which human decision making can be irrational. It explores how default choices and decoy options can influence our decisions. It also examines how conflicts of interest can blind us to outside incentives and how cheating behaviors are affected by factors like social norms and distance from subjects. Additionally, the document looks at how we tend to underestimate the importance of meaning in work and how acknowledging others' work can increase efficiency. The overall conclusion is that humans have a difficult time proving ourselves wrong and make irrational decisions due to self-incentives, cheating tendencies, and misunderstandings about motivation.
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The Hidden Traps in Decision Making
Before deciding on a course of action, prudent managers evaluate the situation confronting them. Unfortunately, some managers are cautious to a fault – taking costly steps to defend against unlikely outcomes. Others are overconfident – underestimating the range of potential outcomes. And still, others are highly impressionable – allowing memorable events in the past to dictate their view of what might be possible now.
These are just three of the well-documented psychological traps that afflict most managers at some point, assert authors John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa in their 1998 article. Still, more pitfalls distort reasoning ability or cater to our own biases. Examples of the latter include the tendencies to stick with the status quo, to look for evidence confirming one’s preferences, and to throw good money after bad because it’s hard to admit making a mistake.
Luckily, techniques exist to overcome each one of these problems. For instance, since the way a problem is posed can influence how you think about it, try to reframe the question in various ways and ask yourself how your thinking might change for each version. Even if we can’t eradicate the distortions ingrained in the way our minds work, we can build tests like this into our decision-making processes to improve the quality of the choices we make.
Tamar Chansky
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Parent effectiveness training pres
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The scripts we follow life position and life script
According to Eric Berne, during first 5 years of life ,decisions about following crystallizes
Ourselves,
Our world and
Our relationships with others
These decisions are based on the pattern of strokes we receive from our parents and others which may be
Encouraging or
Disparaging
Based on these decisions, we assume one of four basic psychological life positions. (Discussed later)
Life positions determines our pattern of
Thinking,
Feeling, and
Behaving.
Our early existential decisions are reinforced by messages (both verbal and nonverbal) that we continue to receive during our lifetime.
It is also reinforced by the results of our games and interpretations of events.
Berne states that dysfunctional behaviour is the result of self-limiting decisions (made in childhood in the interest of survival) which culminate in an unhealthy life script.
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Joe got into trouble by gambling and losing money. He didn't realize he was taking a high risk that could lead to problems. His uncle Enoch, a teacher, taught Joe about making sensible decisions regarding risky behavior. Enoch explained that risky behavior often has a high probability of bad consequences. Now Joe understands the problems gambling caused for him and his mother, and hopes to take chances more wisely in the future.
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The document discusses decision-making at different stages of development from childhood through adulthood. It states that decision-making skills become more important during adolescence and young adulthood as the decisions made can impact one's entire lifetime. It also notes that poor decisions can negatively change the course of one's life or their family's lives. The document then goes on to describe Piaget's four stages of cognitive development and how decision-making abilities change at each stage.
01-Decision-Making.ppt
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Similar to 7.1 Transparency 1 (19)
Effective_Decision-Making_for_Students_{SISD7768B573780}.ppt
Effective_Decision-Making_for_Students_{SISD7768B573780}.ppt
The scripts we follow life position and life script
The scripts we follow life position and life script
Making Decisions In Disruptive Times - Brenda Rigney
Making Decisions In Disruptive Times - Brenda Rigney
More from NRGPSchools
Gambling act
1) The document is the National Gambling Act of 2004 which provides for the regulation of gambling activities like casinos, racing and wagering in South Africa.
2) It establishes uniform norms and standards for gambling regulation across the country to protect the public, prevent overstimulation of gambling demand, and ensure licensing is fair.
3) It retains the National Gambling Board as a juristic person responsible for monitoring compliance, investigating provincial licensing, maintaining registries, and researching socio-economic impacts of gambling.
9.5 trans 3
Encourage the gambler to seek professional help. Do not lend them money or try to solve their problems for them. Take care of your own emotional and financial well-being, and seek support from others you trust. While it's normal to feel angry or betrayed, do not blame yourself for their actions or try to force them to stop gambling against their will.
9.5 trans 1
Some people develop a gambling problem whereas others don't for several reasons:
- The thrill of uncertainty and not knowing when or how much they will win drives some people to keep gambling. The rewards of winning give them a thrill and make them feel good.
- Entrapment causes some players to feel like they can't escape and become determined to continue gambling to recoup losses, convincing themselves they will win with the next round.
- Most people who gamble do not experience problems because they only spend money they can afford and see it as entertainment, whereas problem gamblers feel they have lost more than they can comfortably afford and cannot control how much time or money they spend gambling.
9.5 la
A document provides three scenarios for role playing how to cope when a friend or family member has a gambling problem. The first scenario involves an older sister who feels depressed about money lost from gambling and says she gambles to forget about being lonely. The second scenario describes a father who has been losing money gambling and claims he needs to gamble for household expenses since he does not have a job. The third scenario is about a friend who has been losing money gambling and asks for a loan, saying he knows how to win now and will never speak to his friend again if the loan is not provided.
9.5 trans 2
Problem gamblers feel they have lost more money than they can afford and are unable to limit the time and money spent gambling. For example, Joe spends his mother's money gambling instead of his own spare money and skips school to gamble. Joe's gambling has likely caused financial problems and debts, family conflict, problems at school, and addiction issues.
9.4 trans 2
This document discusses the costs of gambling. It explains that gambling businesses set rules for games to ensure they make a profit on average, called the "house advantage." The house advantage guarantees the business will earn money over time, even though any individual player may win sometimes. It provides examples of house advantages in coin tossing and roulette games. In coin tossing, the house charges $1 to bet but only pays $1.80 if the player wins, earning a $0.20 advantage. In roulette, a $1 bet on all numbers would win $36 but cost $37, giving the house a $1 advantage each time. Therefore, while luck allows some players to win sometimes, mathematics ensures the
9.4 la
This document contains a learning activity sheet with 19 statements about gambling. Students are asked to indicate whether each statement is true or false. Some key points made in the statements include: the odds of winning big prizes from lotteries or dice games are very low; past outcomes do not influence future probabilities; some types of gambling like sports betting involve predicting unpredictable events; and gambling frequently results in spending more money than won.
9.4 la answers
This document discusses various statements about gambling and the probabilities involved. It provides the truth value for each statement - whether it is true or false - and often a brief explanation. Key points made include:
- Outcomes of random events like lottery drawings or dice rolls cannot be predicted and are not influenced by past results.
- The house/casino always has statistical advantage over players in games of chance, ensuring they make money overall.
- While some element of skill can influence outcomes in games like poker, chance is still a major factor and luck evens out over many games.
- Specific probabilities are given for various gambling scenarios to illustrate how unlikely winning big prizes truly is.
9.4 trans 3
Gambling outcomes are based on random chance and cannot be predicted or influenced through superstitions, patterns, or continued play. While skill at video games does not translate to gambling games, understanding that gambling results cannot be controlled and the house has an long-term advantage can help manage risks and problem gambling.
9.3 trans 2
This document discusses probability and games of chance like coin tosses, dice rolls, and lotteries. It explains that in these games, outcomes are random and unpredictable because they involve chance without patterns. The probabilities of outcomes do not change over time. For example, the chance of picking a specific lottery number now is the same as in the future. When calculating probability, it is the number of desired outcomes divided by the total possible outcomes. In roulette, the probability of landing on an odd number is 18/37 since there are 18 odd numbers out of 37 total numbers on the wheel. Understanding probabilities can help people make sensible decisions about gambling by recognizing the risks involved.
9.3 la
This document provides a probability word problem with 5 multiple choice questions. It describes different chance scenarios involving dice, a slot machine wheel, and a roulette wheel. For each scenario, it asks the reader to calculate the probability of a certain outcome and select the correct fraction from the multiple choice options, with hints provided to solve each problem.
9.3 trans 1
This document contains 6 multiple choice questions about random processes and uncertain outcomes. The questions cover topics like the probability of outcomes when throwing dice, whether the probability of an outcome changes after previous occurrences, and whether the outcome of events like cricket matches and horse races can be predicted with certainty. Most of the questions have answers indicating that while certain factors may influence outcomes, they cannot be predicted with absolute certainty due to the many complex and uncertain variables involved.
9.2 trans 3
People gamble for various reasons: to win money, for entertainment, to belong to a group, to alleviate boredom, to support charity, to escape problems, for mood change, to experience winning, or because friends and family do. The document discusses evaluating each of these reasons for gambling on a scale from good to bad based on how likely they are to lead to gambling problems.
9.2 trans 2
The history of gambling in South Africa shows that ancient populations gambled and Bushman paintings depict gambling activities. When the Dutch settled in the 17th century, the first ban on gambling was established in 1673. Gambling expanded greatly during gold and diamond rushes. Prior to 1996, most gambling was illegal except for horse racing and casinos in former homelands, and the black market was run by criminal groups. In 1996, the new democratic government legalized some forms of gambling so adults could spend money on entertainment of their own choice. There are now licensed casinos and lotteries, though illegal gambling still occurs.
9.2 la
This document is a "congratulations letter" informing the recipient that they have won a cash prize of up to R7,500 in a sweepstakes contest. It instructs them to contact the organization by phone or mail to provide their "security code I.D. number" and correctly answer a "skill-testing question" to claim their prize. However, the small print at the bottom reveals the extremely low odds of winning the large prizes, suggesting this is likely a scam intended to deceive people into paying fees under false pretenses of winning money.
9.2 trans 1
Gambling has existed for centuries in many ancient cultures and civilizations. Evidence shows that gambling was practiced in ancient China, Egypt, and Greece, where the gods were believed to gamble. Gambling was also used in ancient religions to determine the will of the gods and is referenced in the Bible. Throughout history, gambling was used to settle political disputes or make unbiased decisions, such as using dice to determine country borders. Common instruments for gambling included dice, cards, roulette wheels, and later, slot machines.
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7.1 Transparency 1
- 1. Hi there… My name is Joe. You’ll read about me in a really cool comic soon. I’ve had some problems… But right now, I’m going to get my uncle, Enoch, to show you some stuff about growing up, risks and behaviour. I think I need to pay special attention… Hey kids. My name is Enoch. I am really excited about all these interesting and very important things we’ll learn about today. You are all at a stage where, as a teenager, you are in an exciting new phase in growing up, but it is also a risky one. • Risky behaviours are those actions that are likely to be dangerous for health or emotional well- being in the short or long-term. • As you are given more responsibility to make decisions about how to spend your time, it is important to know what the various kinds of risk behaviour are and what their possible consequences may be. • Even though people may know that a certain kind of behaviour may lead to an accident or a problem later on, they still do so because they enjoy it, it makes them “feel good”. This is what we call the anticipated reward. Grade 7 | Unit 7.1 | Page 11 Unit 7.1 Transparency 1 - page i
- 2. • Certain kinds of behaviour are more risky than others in that they are more likely to lead to problems. We call these kinds of behaviour high- risk behaviour. • High-risk behaviour has a high probability of leading to social, emotional and physical problems. • You can change the probabilities of getting harmed, or being in an accident or developing an addiction by choosing to do or not do certain things. • This entails understanding the risks involved, the probabilities and having the right decision- making skills to think through a complex situation. • The decision-making process we’ll learn about is not so much a matter of what to decide, but rather how to go about making sensible decisions. I think I am sometimes unaware of the risks involved in what I do….What about you…? Grade 7 | Unit 7.1 | Page 12 Transparency 1 - page ii