This document discusses types of media influence on political attitudes and behaviors that are studied in media effects research. It notes that media can influence political attitudes toward candidates, issues, and social groups, as well as political behaviors like voting. Both news and entertainment media, as well as paid and unpaid media, are studied. Media effects include reinforcement of existing attitudes, attitude change, political learning, and more subtle effects like framing and agenda-setting. The document then discusses methodological approaches like surveys, experiments, and mixed methods, noting trade-offs between internal and external validity.
The document discusses various methods used in media effects research, including surveys, experiments, and hybrid approaches. Surveys have strengths in external validity but weaknesses in determining causation, while experiments have stronger internal validity for causation but can lack realism. The document advocates a pluralistic approach using multiple methods like surveys, lab experiments, field experiments, and survey experiments to enhance both the internal and external validity of findings.
1. Pew Research Center conducted a study administering the same survey to 9 online nonprobability samples from 8 vendors and their own probability-based online panel to assess accuracy.
2. There was substantial variation in accuracy across the online vendors, with the top performing sample averaging an estimated bias of 5.8 percentage points, nearly 1.5 points lower than the second best.
3. Estimates from some vendors exhibited widespread errors, particularly for blacks and Hispanics, with average estimated biases of over 10 points for both groups across most samples.
This document summarizes research from the Growing up with Media study examining youth exposure to violence online and associations with reported seriously violent behavior. Key findings include:
- 37% of youth reported exposure to violence on at least one website in the past year. The odds of reporting seriously violent behavior increased 47% with each additional type of violent website.
- Concurrent reports of seriously violent behavior were most strongly associated with exposure to death sites (OR=4.8) and hate sites (OR=4.5). Not knowing about death sites seemed protective (OR=0.5).
- Youth who reported exposure to online violence also reported more substance use, poor caregiver relationships, and community violence exposure.
This document summarizes a speech given by Gary Langer at the American Association for Public Opinion Research conference in Orlando, Florida on May 18, 2012. In the speech, Langer defends the use of probability sampling for survey research. He discusses how probability sampling allows researchers to make reliable estimates about population values and trends over time. Langer expresses skepticism about non-probability online panels and their ability to produce representative data. He argues that all survey methods, both new and established, should be rigorously evaluated and that fitness for purpose should be considered.
Probability Sampling and Alternative MethodologiesLangerResearch
Gary Langer's Oct. 2012 presentation to the National Science Foundation on the future of survey research. Discusses the limitations of emerging approaches to public opinion research (such as opt-in online panels and social media analysis).
The document discusses trends in party polarization in the U.S. House of Representatives over the past 40 years. It finds that:
1) Both parties have become more ideologically polarized, with Republicans moving further to the right than Democrats to the left. Moderate Republicans have disappeared from Congress.
2) Most of the change among Democrats can be attributed to the loss of moderate-to-conservative Southern Democrats.
3) The parties are now ideologically homogenous and distant from one another, making bipartisan agreements almost impossible to reach on issues like the budget.
4) Polarization is driven by underlying structural factors like income inequality, cultural conflict, and issues like abortion, with little hope for change
This document summarizes three experiments that tested the effects of subliminal priming on evaluations of politicians delivered over the Internet. In Experiment 1, subliminally presenting the word "RATS" led to more negative ratings of an unknown politician. Experiment 2 found that subliminally showing a photo of Bill Clinton weakened negative ratings of an unknown politician. Experiment 3, conducted during Gray Davis' recall referendum in California, found subliminal photos of Clinton affected Davis' ratings, primarily among independents. The results suggest subliminal priming can influence political evaluations and be conducted online in real world contexts.
The document discusses various methods used in media effects research, including surveys, experiments, and hybrid approaches. Surveys have strengths in external validity but weaknesses in determining causation, while experiments have stronger internal validity for causation but can lack realism. The document advocates a pluralistic approach using multiple methods like surveys, lab experiments, field experiments, and survey experiments to enhance both the internal and external validity of findings.
1. Pew Research Center conducted a study administering the same survey to 9 online nonprobability samples from 8 vendors and their own probability-based online panel to assess accuracy.
2. There was substantial variation in accuracy across the online vendors, with the top performing sample averaging an estimated bias of 5.8 percentage points, nearly 1.5 points lower than the second best.
3. Estimates from some vendors exhibited widespread errors, particularly for blacks and Hispanics, with average estimated biases of over 10 points for both groups across most samples.
This document summarizes research from the Growing up with Media study examining youth exposure to violence online and associations with reported seriously violent behavior. Key findings include:
- 37% of youth reported exposure to violence on at least one website in the past year. The odds of reporting seriously violent behavior increased 47% with each additional type of violent website.
- Concurrent reports of seriously violent behavior were most strongly associated with exposure to death sites (OR=4.8) and hate sites (OR=4.5). Not knowing about death sites seemed protective (OR=0.5).
- Youth who reported exposure to online violence also reported more substance use, poor caregiver relationships, and community violence exposure.
This document summarizes a speech given by Gary Langer at the American Association for Public Opinion Research conference in Orlando, Florida on May 18, 2012. In the speech, Langer defends the use of probability sampling for survey research. He discusses how probability sampling allows researchers to make reliable estimates about population values and trends over time. Langer expresses skepticism about non-probability online panels and their ability to produce representative data. He argues that all survey methods, both new and established, should be rigorously evaluated and that fitness for purpose should be considered.
Probability Sampling and Alternative MethodologiesLangerResearch
Gary Langer's Oct. 2012 presentation to the National Science Foundation on the future of survey research. Discusses the limitations of emerging approaches to public opinion research (such as opt-in online panels and social media analysis).
The document discusses trends in party polarization in the U.S. House of Representatives over the past 40 years. It finds that:
1) Both parties have become more ideologically polarized, with Republicans moving further to the right than Democrats to the left. Moderate Republicans have disappeared from Congress.
2) Most of the change among Democrats can be attributed to the loss of moderate-to-conservative Southern Democrats.
3) The parties are now ideologically homogenous and distant from one another, making bipartisan agreements almost impossible to reach on issues like the budget.
4) Polarization is driven by underlying structural factors like income inequality, cultural conflict, and issues like abortion, with little hope for change
This document summarizes three experiments that tested the effects of subliminal priming on evaluations of politicians delivered over the Internet. In Experiment 1, subliminally presenting the word "RATS" led to more negative ratings of an unknown politician. Experiment 2 found that subliminally showing a photo of Bill Clinton weakened negative ratings of an unknown politician. Experiment 3, conducted during Gray Davis' recall referendum in California, found subliminal photos of Clinton affected Davis' ratings, primarily among independents. The results suggest subliminal priming can influence political evaluations and be conducted online in real world contexts.
This document outlines the schedule and readings for a course on media and elections. It includes 12 sections covering topics like the media's role in campaigns, media effects on public opinion, and strategies for managing the news. It also announces a conference on "The Polarized Electorate" to be held at the end of the term. The conference will feature presentations from researchers using experimental methods to study how polarized communications can drive divisions among the public.
475 2015 democracy and the news media, part ii upmpeffl
The document discusses the changing media landscape in the United States and its potential effects on democracy. It notes the decline of traditional news sources due to increased competition, corporate ownership pressures, and deregulation. This has led to less "hard news" reporting and the rise of more partisan or entertainment-focused sources. Research suggests these shifts negatively impact political knowledge, particularly among those who prefer entertainment to news. They may also contribute to declining voter turnout and increased polarization as the composition of voters changes. The future of news and its ability to serve democratic ideals like an informed public remains uncertain given the financial troubles of legacy media and questions around new online news sources.
1. A study found that racial attitudes, as measured by racial resentment and racial stereotypes, became more strongly associated with white Americans' health care opinions after Barack Obama was elected president in 2008 compared to before his election.
2. This increase in the effect of racial attitudes was independent of partisanship, ideology, views on limited government, and concerns about medical costs.
3. A survey experiment also showed that racial attitudes had a stronger influence on white Americans' support for health care policy when Obama was mentioned compared to when either "some people" or "President Bill Clinton" were mentioned instead.
475 2015 media effects stereotypes & knowledge upmpeffl
1. They conducted an experiment where adult participants watched one of four versions of a local news broadcast that included a crime story - with no image of the perpetrator, a white perpetrator, a black perpetrator, or no crime story.
2. Watching news stories with no perpetrator or a black perpetrator led white participants to express more negative racial stereotypes and support for punitive crime policies, while having less effect on black participants.
3. The results provided evidence that merely watching local news with black criminals can influence viewers' racial attitudes, which has implications for how media representations shape public opinion.
The document discusses the role of media in times of war from a normative and empirical perspective. It analyzes media coverage and the relationship between the media and government during WWII, Vietnam, Grenada, Gulf War I, and the Iraq War. It notes that the media often relies on official government sources and is restricted in what it can report during wars. The media's role often shifts from watchdog to being more aligned with the government perspective.
Thermal imaging video released by police shows the capture of the Boston Marathon bombing suspects. The video shows officers with thermal imaging equipment tracking one of the suspects hiding in a boat in a backyard. It then shows police firing flashbangs and pulling the injured suspect from the boat and placing him in an ambulance. The release of this video provided insight into the police tactics used to locate and capture the suspects in the Boston Marathon attack.
The document discusses several classic social psychology experiments that demonstrate how social influences and group settings can powerfully shape human attitudes, opinions, and behaviors - for better or worse. It summarizes Milgram's obedience experiments which shockingly found that over 65% of participants continued administering electric shocks to another person when instructed by an authority figure. It also discusses Zimbardo's Stanford Prison Experiment which was abruptly stopped after students quickly adopted sadistic or depressed roles based on being assigned as guards or prisoners. Both experiments highlight how ordinary people can engage in harmful or abusive behaviors when situated within powerful social and institutional contexts.
The document discusses trends in traditional news coverage of elections and how different actors, including the media, voters, and candidates, influence that coverage. It notes that while politicians often blame negative media coverage solely on the media, John Zaller provided alternative explanations by analyzing how the goals of all three groups impact coverage. For example, candidates' increased control over messaging has led to more press-initiated negativity as the media pushes back on restricted access. The document also examines how trivial and negative coverage has consequences for how the public views politics.
The document discusses various methods for measuring implicit and explicit attitudes, noting that implicit attitudes occur outside of conscious awareness while explicit attitudes can be influenced by social desirability bias. It also describes the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and Affect Misattribution Procedure (AMP) as methods for indirectly measuring implicit attitudes, finding the AMP to have simpler interpretation but large effects. High and low self-monitors are also discussed in terms of the relationship between private and public attitudes.
This document discusses the complex relationship between the media and the government during times of war. It provides several examples from different conflicts to illustrate how the media's role has changed over time and been influenced by the level of censorship and information control imposed by the government. While the media aims to act as a watchdog, it often relies too heavily on official sources, limiting its ability to independently question government policy. The document also analyzes how both the government and opposition parties seek to characterize media coverage and criticism of war policy as being unpatriotic or aiding the enemy.
Craig Wofford offers professionally installed epoxy and polymer coating systems for concrete floors, with over 20 years of experience. His company provides protective, decorative, and non-staining smooth or non-skid floor finishes, as well as concrete repair services. Examples of residential and commercial projects are shown, ranging from garages to industrial facilities. Customers include homes, clubs, and industrial companies across Tennessee.
El documento habla sobre la adopción de mascotas. Recomienda adoptar en lugar de comprar para evitar la sobrepoblación de animales en refugios. Explica que al adoptar se le da un hogar a un animal que de otra forma podría terminar en la calle o ser explotado. También menciona algunas instituciones como Pedigree y Cambia un Destino que ayudan a encontrar hogares para las mascotas que buscan ser adoptadas.
Ibm 40 y6793 batería compatible de ibm thinkpad z60t z61t seriesaras189
Este documento describe una batería compatible con IBM 40y6791. Proporciona especificaciones como una capacidad de 5200mAh y un voltaje de 10.8V. También incluye instrucciones sobre el uso seguro de la batería y modelos compatibles como los portátiles IBM ThinkPad Z60t y Z61t Series.
El documento describe los bombardeos atómicos de las ciudades japonesas de Hiroshima y Nagasaki por parte de Estados Unidos en agosto de 1945. Mientras que el presidente Truman argumentó que la bomba atómica puso fin a la guerra y salvó vidas, un sobreviviente japonés ofrece un testimonio del horror y destrucción que presenció en Hiroshima después del ataque.
Accompanying deck for my 30-minute presentation on survey. Survey is quite a lengthy topic so had to focus on the practicalities of choosing a survey and the rules of thumb around developing questions and the importance of sampling. There is a also a study of the Gallup Poll during the 1948 elections.
Loss Of Innocence: 'Lord Of The Flies' - Free Essay Example .... The Loss of Innocence - English 102 essay - The Loss of Innocence .... Lord Of The Flies Loss of Innocence - Free Essay Example - 716 Words .... Loss of Innocence Portrayed in To Kill A Mockingbird Essay Example .... Loss of Innocence: The Catcher in the Rye and Rebel Without a Cause .... Loss of Innocence Short-Story: Sunrise on the Veld Free Essay Example. ⇉Lord of the Flies Loss of Innocence Essay Example | GraduateWay. ⇉Nick’s Loss of Innocence and Growing Awareness Sample Essay Example .... Loss of Innocence in Toni Cade Bambara’s “The Lesson” Essay Sample .... Loss of Innocence - Page 1 - UNT Digital Library. Loss of Innocence in Lord of the Flies - Visual Essay. ⇉Archetype Loss Of Innocence Essay Example | GraduateWay. Lord Of The Flies - Loss of Innocence - Visual Essay - YouTube. Antonio´s loss of innocence - Bless Me, Ultima by Rudolfo Anaya - Essay .... (DOC) Exploring the theme of Loss Of Innocence and Maturing in To Kill .... Exploration of the Loss of Innocence by Christina Rosette Cousin Kate .... Compare and contrast the themes of loss of innocence, betrayal and ....
This document outlines the schedule and readings for a course on media and elections. It includes 12 sections covering topics like the media's role in campaigns, media effects on public opinion, and strategies for managing the news. It also announces a conference on "The Polarized Electorate" to be held at the end of the term. The conference will feature presentations from researchers using experimental methods to study how polarized communications can drive divisions among the public.
475 2015 democracy and the news media, part ii upmpeffl
The document discusses the changing media landscape in the United States and its potential effects on democracy. It notes the decline of traditional news sources due to increased competition, corporate ownership pressures, and deregulation. This has led to less "hard news" reporting and the rise of more partisan or entertainment-focused sources. Research suggests these shifts negatively impact political knowledge, particularly among those who prefer entertainment to news. They may also contribute to declining voter turnout and increased polarization as the composition of voters changes. The future of news and its ability to serve democratic ideals like an informed public remains uncertain given the financial troubles of legacy media and questions around new online news sources.
1. A study found that racial attitudes, as measured by racial resentment and racial stereotypes, became more strongly associated with white Americans' health care opinions after Barack Obama was elected president in 2008 compared to before his election.
2. This increase in the effect of racial attitudes was independent of partisanship, ideology, views on limited government, and concerns about medical costs.
3. A survey experiment also showed that racial attitudes had a stronger influence on white Americans' support for health care policy when Obama was mentioned compared to when either "some people" or "President Bill Clinton" were mentioned instead.
475 2015 media effects stereotypes & knowledge upmpeffl
1. They conducted an experiment where adult participants watched one of four versions of a local news broadcast that included a crime story - with no image of the perpetrator, a white perpetrator, a black perpetrator, or no crime story.
2. Watching news stories with no perpetrator or a black perpetrator led white participants to express more negative racial stereotypes and support for punitive crime policies, while having less effect on black participants.
3. The results provided evidence that merely watching local news with black criminals can influence viewers' racial attitudes, which has implications for how media representations shape public opinion.
The document discusses the role of media in times of war from a normative and empirical perspective. It analyzes media coverage and the relationship between the media and government during WWII, Vietnam, Grenada, Gulf War I, and the Iraq War. It notes that the media often relies on official government sources and is restricted in what it can report during wars. The media's role often shifts from watchdog to being more aligned with the government perspective.
Thermal imaging video released by police shows the capture of the Boston Marathon bombing suspects. The video shows officers with thermal imaging equipment tracking one of the suspects hiding in a boat in a backyard. It then shows police firing flashbangs and pulling the injured suspect from the boat and placing him in an ambulance. The release of this video provided insight into the police tactics used to locate and capture the suspects in the Boston Marathon attack.
The document discusses several classic social psychology experiments that demonstrate how social influences and group settings can powerfully shape human attitudes, opinions, and behaviors - for better or worse. It summarizes Milgram's obedience experiments which shockingly found that over 65% of participants continued administering electric shocks to another person when instructed by an authority figure. It also discusses Zimbardo's Stanford Prison Experiment which was abruptly stopped after students quickly adopted sadistic or depressed roles based on being assigned as guards or prisoners. Both experiments highlight how ordinary people can engage in harmful or abusive behaviors when situated within powerful social and institutional contexts.
The document discusses trends in traditional news coverage of elections and how different actors, including the media, voters, and candidates, influence that coverage. It notes that while politicians often blame negative media coverage solely on the media, John Zaller provided alternative explanations by analyzing how the goals of all three groups impact coverage. For example, candidates' increased control over messaging has led to more press-initiated negativity as the media pushes back on restricted access. The document also examines how trivial and negative coverage has consequences for how the public views politics.
The document discusses various methods for measuring implicit and explicit attitudes, noting that implicit attitudes occur outside of conscious awareness while explicit attitudes can be influenced by social desirability bias. It also describes the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and Affect Misattribution Procedure (AMP) as methods for indirectly measuring implicit attitudes, finding the AMP to have simpler interpretation but large effects. High and low self-monitors are also discussed in terms of the relationship between private and public attitudes.
This document discusses the complex relationship between the media and the government during times of war. It provides several examples from different conflicts to illustrate how the media's role has changed over time and been influenced by the level of censorship and information control imposed by the government. While the media aims to act as a watchdog, it often relies too heavily on official sources, limiting its ability to independently question government policy. The document also analyzes how both the government and opposition parties seek to characterize media coverage and criticism of war policy as being unpatriotic or aiding the enemy.
Craig Wofford offers professionally installed epoxy and polymer coating systems for concrete floors, with over 20 years of experience. His company provides protective, decorative, and non-staining smooth or non-skid floor finishes, as well as concrete repair services. Examples of residential and commercial projects are shown, ranging from garages to industrial facilities. Customers include homes, clubs, and industrial companies across Tennessee.
El documento habla sobre la adopción de mascotas. Recomienda adoptar en lugar de comprar para evitar la sobrepoblación de animales en refugios. Explica que al adoptar se le da un hogar a un animal que de otra forma podría terminar en la calle o ser explotado. También menciona algunas instituciones como Pedigree y Cambia un Destino que ayudan a encontrar hogares para las mascotas que buscan ser adoptadas.
Ibm 40 y6793 batería compatible de ibm thinkpad z60t z61t seriesaras189
Este documento describe una batería compatible con IBM 40y6791. Proporciona especificaciones como una capacidad de 5200mAh y un voltaje de 10.8V. También incluye instrucciones sobre el uso seguro de la batería y modelos compatibles como los portátiles IBM ThinkPad Z60t y Z61t Series.
El documento describe los bombardeos atómicos de las ciudades japonesas de Hiroshima y Nagasaki por parte de Estados Unidos en agosto de 1945. Mientras que el presidente Truman argumentó que la bomba atómica puso fin a la guerra y salvó vidas, un sobreviviente japonés ofrece un testimonio del horror y destrucción que presenció en Hiroshima después del ataque.
Accompanying deck for my 30-minute presentation on survey. Survey is quite a lengthy topic so had to focus on the practicalities of choosing a survey and the rules of thumb around developing questions and the importance of sampling. There is a also a study of the Gallup Poll during the 1948 elections.
Loss Of Innocence: 'Lord Of The Flies' - Free Essay Example .... The Loss of Innocence - English 102 essay - The Loss of Innocence .... Lord Of The Flies Loss of Innocence - Free Essay Example - 716 Words .... Loss of Innocence Portrayed in To Kill A Mockingbird Essay Example .... Loss of Innocence: The Catcher in the Rye and Rebel Without a Cause .... Loss of Innocence Short-Story: Sunrise on the Veld Free Essay Example. ⇉Lord of the Flies Loss of Innocence Essay Example | GraduateWay. ⇉Nick’s Loss of Innocence and Growing Awareness Sample Essay Example .... Loss of Innocence in Toni Cade Bambara’s “The Lesson” Essay Sample .... Loss of Innocence - Page 1 - UNT Digital Library. Loss of Innocence in Lord of the Flies - Visual Essay. ⇉Archetype Loss Of Innocence Essay Example | GraduateWay. Lord Of The Flies - Loss of Innocence - Visual Essay - YouTube. Antonio´s loss of innocence - Bless Me, Ultima by Rudolfo Anaya - Essay .... (DOC) Exploring the theme of Loss Of Innocence and Maturing in To Kill .... Exploration of the Loss of Innocence by Christina Rosette Cousin Kate .... Compare and contrast the themes of loss of innocence, betrayal and ....
The document provides guidance on properly analyzing and reporting on statistical data to avoid misleading conclusions. It discusses the importance of data integrity checks, understanding different statistical measures like mean, median and mode, interpreting outliers, ensuring representative polling methodology, and making accurate comparisons over time or between groups. The key is to have a thorough understanding of the data collection methods, variables, and potential biases in order to draw reliable insights and reveal meaningful stories. Transparency about sources and limitations is also important to avoid distorting information.
'Drinking from the fire hose? The pitfalls and potential of Big Data'.Josh Cowls
1) The document discusses the challenges and opportunities of analyzing large datasets known as "Big Data" from a social science perspective.
2) It defines Big Data and explores how the approach could undermine traditional research methods but also presents new opportunities.
3) The key to effectively studying Big Data is developing a strong understanding of the data, collaborating across disciplines, and using mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to provide context and identify meaningful relationships for further study.
ICA 2013: Evidence on the Extent of Harms Experienced by Children as a Result...Monica Bulger
A recent UK parliamentary inquiry into online child protection prompted a resurgence of moral panics about children and adolescents’ Internet use, despite the fact that little empirical evidence of actual harm is brought to bear in public and policy discourses. This article makes a key contribution to the field by reviewing the available evidence about the scale and scope of online harms from across a range of disciplines and identifying key obstacles in this research area. The findings are based on a review of 271 empirical studies. We identified three main types of harms: health-related harms as a result of using pro-eating disorders, self-harm or pro-suicide websites, sex-related harms such as Internet-initiated sexual abuse of minors, and cyber-bullying.
Presented at the International Communication Association Annual Meeting, 2013, London.
Cybersecurity Risk Perception and CommunicationStephen Cobb
Research into Cultural Theory, White Male Effect, and more. We show high level of concern about cybercrime among US adults and first evidence of White Male Effect in cyber risk perception.
This document discusses the logical fallacy of overgeneralizing. It provides examples of statements that overgeneralize based on small, unrepresentative samples. Readers are encouraged to avoid making sweeping generalizations and to consider whether evidence is representative of the whole group when evaluating arguments. The document aims to help students identify overgeneralizing and improve their ability to detect logical fallacies in arguments.
Fake News, Real Concerns: Developing Information Literate Students (December ...ALAeLearningSolutions
This document summarizes a presentation by Donald Barclay on how librarians can help improve information literacy in the age of social media and fake news. It begins with introductions and defines different types of misinformation like lying, propaganda, humor and altered information. It discusses challenges like information overload and confirms people tend to overestimate their ability to evaluate information. It provides examples of teaching concepts like logical fallacies and addressing emotions. Finally, it argues information literacy must be taught across curriculums and evaluating information requires both rational and emotional thinking.
Making Decisions in a World Awash in Data: We’re going to need a different bo...Micah Altman
In his abstract, Scriffignano summarizes as follows:
l explore some of the ways in which the massive availability of data is changing and the types of questions we must ask in the context of making business decisions. Truth be told, nearly all organizations struggle to make sense out of the mounting data already within the enterprise. At the same time, businesses, individuals, and governments continue to try to outpace one another, often in ways that are informed by newly-available data and technology, but just as often using that data and technology in alarmingly inappropriate or incomplete ways. Multiple “solutions” exist to take data that is poorly understood, promising to derive meaning that is often transient at best. A tremendous amount of “dark” innovation continues in the space of fraud and other bad behavior (e.g. cyber crime, cyber terrorism), highlighting that there are very real risks to taking a fast-follower strategy in making sense out of the ever-increasing amount of data available. Tools and technologies can be very helpful or, as Scriffignano puts it, “they can accelerate the speed with which we hit the wall.” Drawing on unstructured, highly dynamic sources of data, fascinating inference can be derived if we ask the right questions (and maybe use a bit of different math!). This session will cover three main themes: The new normal (how the data around us continues to change), how are we reacting (bringing data science into the room), and the path ahead (creating a mindset in the organization that evolves). Ultimately, what we learn is governed as much by the data available as by the questions we ask. This talk, both relevant and occasionally irreverent, will explore some of the new ways data is being used to expose risk and opportunity and the skills we need to take advantage of a world awash in data.
Our study found that applying a performance-based “expert” weighted method to the crowd improves the crowds’ wisdom, measured by crowd accuracy. This finding contrasts previous research that was not able to find a significant improvement in accuracy by applying weighted methods. This research indicates that in order to optimise crowdsourcing, experts within the crowd should be given higher weighting compared to non-experts.
Cultural Contradictions of Scanning in an Evidence-based Policy EnvironmentWendy Schultz
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz discusses horizon scanning as an essential tool for foresight activities that identifies emerging issues and changes. However, scanning faces challenges in an evidence-based policy environment due to contradictions between the subjective, tentative nature of scanning and political and scientific desires for objective, authoritative conclusions. Various techniques like causal layered analysis, integral futures, and spiral dynamics can help overcome biases and validate scan findings from diverse sources to better identify surprises and alternatives for policymaking.
This document discusses key concepts in social science research methods. It covers research ethics like informed consent and protecting vulnerable populations. It explains that good research should be valid, reliable and generalizable. It discusses the differences between quantitative and qualitative research methods. It also covers the deductive and inductive approaches to research, and explains the difference between correlation and causation in research. Key variables like independent and dependent variables are defined. The importance of hypotheses and how they relate to the research question or theory is also outlined.
The Failure of Skepticism: Rethinking Information Literacy and Political Pol...Chris Sweet
Fake news has been shown to spread far faster than facts on social media platforms. Rampant fake news has led to deep political polarization and the undermining of basic democratic institutions. Skepticism is an important component of information literacy and has often been pointed to as the antidote to the fake news epidemic. Why are skepticism and information literacy failing so terrifically in this post-truth era?
The presenters will summarize research drawn from the fields of psychology and mass communication that shows just how hardwired people are to believe information from their own “tribes” and resist outside contrary information.
How we think about and teach skepticism and information literacy is in need of an overhaul for the twenty-first century. This webinar will introduce some ideas for that overhaul and will also provide practical classroom activities that do a better job of addressing the cognitive aspects of information literacy and skepticism.
Reducing Bias in Public Opinion Polls - By Autumn Carter
Presentation Delivered at Stanford University, Summer Research College, August 2009
Presentation of some of my results from my research. Over the course of the project, I analyzed 7 survey experiments across 9 unique vendors, who conducted the survey via phone or the internet and using either a probability sample or a non-probability sample. In all, about 10000 unique individuals were surveyed.
This presentation highlights the question bias of Agree/Disagree type questions and the response bias associated with the Acquiescence Effect.
I conducted my research through Stanford\'s Political Psychology Research Group. pprg.stanford.edu
This document discusses key concepts in survey research. It covers common survey methods like face-to-face, mail, telephone and internet surveys. It also discusses survey design, sampling, data collection and analysis. Important topics like validity, reliability and minimizing errors are explained. Different question types like closed-ended, open-ended and leading questions are defined. The advantages and disadvantages of different survey modes are presented.
- The document summarizes several presentations from a conference on applying behavioral science.
- One speaker discussed brain imaging research showing brain activity is more predictive of behavior than self-reported intentions. Experiments found people over-reported willingness to buy items or under-reported willingness to eat unpleasant foods.
- Another talk discussed the "pratfall effect" - people view competent individuals as more competent after a minor mistake, but view average individuals as less competent after a similar mistake.
1) This document provides a summary of the latest issue of "O Behave!", a newsletter about behavioral science research.
2) It discusses recent studies on friendship perceptions and influence, loss aversion in Donald Trump's campaign, and how describing attitudes as morality-based makes them stronger and less changeable.
3) Brief summaries are also given of new behavioral insights from Uber on surge pricing and "eureka moments" being more likely to provide correct answers to puzzles.
Here are my evaluations of the three research projects:
1. A student wants to research attitudes to immigration. They conduct informal interviews with friends and family, asking them their views.
This research is neither valid nor reliable. It uses a non-random, biased sample of friends and family. The findings cannot be generalised to the wider population and the methods are not systematic or replicable.
2. A student hands out a questionnaire in their school asking pupils about their favourite TV shows. 100 questionnaires are completed.
This research is reliable but not valid. Using a questionnaire provides quantitative, standardized data that could be replicated. However, the sample is limited to one school so the findings cannot be generalized to all young people.
Critical Thinking as a Skill for Democracy: A Case of Citizen Engagement with...DIPRC2019
Citizen disengagement from politics is one of the main issues in modern democracy. Technologies can be used to tap into new internal motivations for people to take part and make sense of political debate. We present a case study of citizens engaging with the replay of political election debates with a novel hypervideo technology called Democratic Replay. Results of the study show that Democratic Replay increases people’s appetite for a new type of engagement with televised elections debates which is based on the realisation of key dimensions of deliberative democracy, such as: reflecting and focusing on different aspects of the political debate, reconstructing the arguments that politicians are making, and assessing facts and evidence. The study also shows that visual analytics narratives and hypervideo navigation improve sensemaking in that they trigger questioning and changing of personal assumptions that people hold before watching the debate. This is a very encouraging result, which addresses the ongoing concern about the real value of new media in the context of political debate and democratic deliberation: specifically, the scepticism toward their capability to support people’s critical thinking rather than promote polarisation of pre-existing groups and opinions. Our research into new sensemaking technologies and hypervideo shows that new media can crucially provide new ways for citizens to detect and make sense of political manipulations, check facts versus speculations, gain new insights, and confidently inform their political choices. Results of the demographic analysis also show that Democratic Replay appealed to different demographic sub-groups with different sensemaking behaviours. This means that democratic spaces and rights cannot be interpreted uniquely and should respond to people’s personal needs, interpretation and understanding of society. Therefore, technologies for democratic public deliberation need to be designed with a variety of users in mind, and they need to be customised to the needs of different demographic groups if they aim to reach all citizens.
This document outlines the key topics and themes that will be covered in a public opinion course. The course will examine how public opinion surveys are conducted and interpreted. Students will evaluate theories about how people form opinions and answer survey questions. Key debates around the competence of the public and the role of public opinion in influencing policy will also be discussed. Regular quizzes will assess students' understanding of the readings and class discussions. The goal is to make students savvier consumers of public opinion data.
475 2015 partisan press and public polarization upmpeffl
I do not have enough information to make a claim about whether the net effect of partisan media is a benefit or cost. Reasonable people can disagree on this issue. While partisan media may polarize some viewers and undermine consensus, it also engages citizens, holds politicians accountable, and gives voice to underrepresented groups. Overall impacts depend on complex societal and individual factors. A diversity of high-quality news sources, along with media literacy, may help citizens navigate partisan information flows.
474 2015 rational choice & psychological models of decision making upmpeffl
The document discusses different theories of political decision-making. It compares the rational choice model proposed by economist Anthony Downs to the bounded rationality model put forth by psychologists Herbert Simon and Daniel Kahneman.
Downs believed that voters make rational decisions by carefully weighing costs and benefits to maximize their expected utility. However, Simon and Kahneman argued that decision-making is bounded by cognitive limitations. People use heuristics and simplify choices to make satisfactory rather than optimal decisions. They may ignore aspects of problems and use mental shortcuts like prior beliefs.
The document also discusses how political psychologists have found that voters are influenced more by partisan affiliation, candidate characteristics, and a few issues rather than rationally evaluating all issues and options as
Media effects theories have evolved over time from assuming powerful direct effects to recognizing more conditional and nuanced impacts. Early models proposed media could directly shape attitudes through propaganda-like messages. However, research found people are not entirely passive and can resist persuasion through social and psychological factors. While media may cultivate worldviews over the long-term or influence children, effects are often indirect, conditional on individual traits, and reinforced by interpersonal networks. More recent models recognize effects depend on the message, medium, audience and other contextual factors.
The document discusses the effectiveness of political attack ads and negative campaigning. It finds that:
1) Attack ads are not consistently effective at winning votes or lowering voter turnout according to meta-analyses of over 100 studies.
2) They are more effective at increasing awareness and knowledge of campaigns but can lower feelings of political efficacy and trust.
3) Negative ads are only demobilizing if voters have already chosen a candidate and then are exposed to attacks on that candidate later in the campaign. Timing is important for negative ads to be effective.
The document discusses various media effects including persuasion, reinforcement, learning, agenda setting, priming, and framing. It provides definitions and examples of each. Agenda setting refers to how the amount of news coverage of an issue influences the public's perception of its importance. Priming is an extension of agenda setting where media coverage changes the criteria used to evaluate political leaders. Framing alters how people think about issues by influencing the importance they attach to certain beliefs through techniques like headlines and photos. Experiments show that news coverage and frames can influence perceptions and criteria for judgment. However, framing effects are limited by people's predispositions and source credibility.
This document summarizes research at the intersection of biology and politics. It discusses twin studies that have found some political attitudes, such as views on social issues, have a strong genetic basis, while other attitudes are more environmentally determined. The document notes that while early studies provided insights, they treated heritability as a "black box" that raised new questions. More recent research is trying to identify specific genes associated with political behaviors and attitudes to better understand the biological processes at work. This research challenges assumptions of environmental determinism but also still has many open questions to answer.
1. They show that authoritarianism is strongly correlated with attitudes on a wide range of political and social issues, even after controlling for other factors like partisanship, ideology, and demographics. This supports the idea that authoritarianism is an important predictor of political attitudes.
2. They find that experimentally manipulating the salience of threats like terrorism can polarize attitudes between high and low authoritarians. However, their own correlational study does not prove that rising threats cause polarization.
3. They acknowledge limitations in applying their authoritarianism measure to African Americans and call for further
475 2015 the new media and its impact on politics upmpeffl
The document summarizes research on censorship and social media in China. It discusses two studies:
1) A study that scraped social media posts in China over time and found posts were censored based on their potential to spur social mobilization, not based on their content being pro- or anti-government.
2) A second study submitted fake blog posts to Chinese sites that varied in terms of supporting/criticizing the government and emphasizing collective action. Posts suggesting collective action were more likely to be automatically censored.
The research suggests the goal of censorship in China is to curtail collective action and social mobilization, regardless of the ideological stance of online content.
This document discusses several topics related to news media and public opinion, including:
1. Traditional definitions of fair and neutral news reporting rely on official sources and presenting two sides to stories, which can oversimplify complex issues.
2. News coverage tends to focus on novel, dramatic stories involving conflict and personalities rather than complex policy issues or systemic problems. This shapes public attention.
3. Factors like reporters' demographics, newsroom biases, and a focus on "if it bleeds it leads" can influence disproportionate coverage of certain types of crime stories and racial biases.
4. Given these limitations in news coverage, public opinion formed on this basis may also be fragmented, ahistorical, and
This document discusses the role of news media in democracy. It outlines two models of democracy - classical representative democracy and elitist democracy - and their differing views on the roles of citizens, political elites, and news media. In classical democracy, citizens are well-informed and active in self-governance, while news media help inform the public and act as watchdogs. In elitist democracy, citizens are seen as incapable and passive, while political elites and news media guide public support for elite policies. The document also examines challenges like widespread political misperceptions and questions how news media can balance roles like public debate, accountability, and presenting diverse perspectives.
Political psychology analyzes political behaviors and decisions through psychological theories and research methods. The document discusses several key aspects of political psychology:
1. It has evolved through different theoretical perspectives over time, from personality theories to attitudes/voting behavior to information processing.
2. It draws from major areas of psychology like social cognition, emotions, communications, and more recently biology.
3. Research methods include surveys, experiments, and combinations for both internal and external validity.
4. The field aims to explain political behaviors that seem irrational, like scandals, by investigating cognitive and social psychological factors beyond purely rational or self-interested explanations.
The document discusses several empirical questions and theoretical perspectives related to public opinion and war. It begins by outlining some key empirical questions, such as explaining public support for or opposition to war and whether politics stops at the water's edge in foreign policy attitudes. It then discusses different theoretical perspectives on the public's role in war policy decisions and the constraints on various actors. The document also examines Berinsky's work on public opinion in wartime, noting its contributions in examining multiple wars using a single framework and testing theories with different data types. It discusses opinion leadership models and how people may respond directly to events or in a mediated fashion based on elite cues.
This document provides an overview of a college course on persuasion, propaganda, and public opinion. It includes the syllabus and schedule for the second half of the course. It discusses potential topics for a second written assignment and examples of political propaganda. It also defines propaganda and discusses theories of political persuasion, including source, message, and audience characteristics based on Hovland's message-learning approach. Questions are raised about the role of credible sources and conflicts of interest in political persuasion.
I. Democratic elitists argue the public is often politically uninformed, pliable without stable opinions, lack ideological thinking, and make irrational decisions. They claim 200 years of education hasn't sufficiently enlightened the public.
II. Classical representative theorists offer rebuttals. Anthony Downs argued rational ignorance explains low information as information and decision costs make political learning inefficient. Paul Sniderman argued people use heuristic reasoning and cognitive shortcuts like partisanship and stereotypes to make efficient if not perfectly accurate political judgments. Later work found the public may be more informed than surveys suggest and collective rationality can emerge from aggregation of individual responses.
473 2015 up political tolerance competence (1 21-15)mpeffl
This document discusses political tolerance and its support among the public and elites. It begins by asking if the public truly supports democratic principles like free speech or if elites should act as "Guardians of Democracy" to protect it from an intolerant public. It then lists several statements about supporting free speech and examines levels of agreement. The document discusses theories of political tolerance, factors that influence tolerance like education and personality traits, and whether elites or mass education better promote tolerance in a democracy.
474 2014 rat choice & psych dec making 2014-upmpeffl
The document discusses two competing theories of political decision-making: rational choice theory associated with Anthony Downs and bounded rationality associated with Herbert Simon and Daniel Kahneman. Rational choice theory assumes people make decisions by rationally calculating costs and benefits to maximize utility, but this fails to predict real-world behavior. Bounded rationality recognizes cognitive limitations and that people use mental shortcuts, leading to more realistic explanations of political judgments and decisions. The document argues bounded rationality provides a better understanding of how and why people actually make choices.
This document outlines a course on persuasion, propaganda, and attitude change. It discusses several key theories:
1) Hovland's message-learning approach which examines factors like the source, message, audience, and their influence on persuasion.
2) The cognitive response approach which focuses on the thoughts people have in response to a message, and how favorable thoughts lead to attitude change.
3) The elaboration likelihood model which proposes two routes to persuasion - a central route using careful thought, and a peripheral route using simple cues, with the latter more common in propaganda.
The document provides examples and analysis applying these theories to understand political ads, propaganda techniques, and how to most effectively influence
The document discusses several key points about the relationship between presidents and public opinion:
1) Presidents try to use going public strategies to promote their policies directly to Americans, but are often unsuccessful as public opinion moves away from presidential policies over time.
2) Presidents have more influence over public opinion in the short term after elections, when approval ratings are very high, and when their party controls Congress.
3) Events like casualties in war can influence public opinion, but elites and news coverage shape how the public interprets events, so presidents have significant control over these interpretations and therefore public opinion.
- Agenda setting refers to how the amount of news coverage an issue receives influences the public's perception of its importance, even if it does not reflect real-world events.
- Priming is an extension of agenda setting, where the number of news stories about an issue changes the criteria used to evaluate political leaders. For example, increased economic coverage led to lower approval ratings for H.W. Bush.
- Framing alters how people think about issues by changing the content of news stories about them, such as through headlines or images, influencing the beliefs people use to form attitudes.
2. What types of influence (effects) by what
types of media on what types of behavior
(attitudes & behaviors)?
3. Political attitudes toward a variety of different
objects
▪ Political objects: Candidates, Issues, Government,
Political trust, Parties, etc.
▪ Non-Political objects: Social Groups (e.g., women,
Latinos, seniors).
▪ Cognition (e.g., stereotypes) & Affect (e.g., prejudice,
emotions)
Political behavior
▪ Voting decisions, turnout, civic engagement, etc.
4. News versus Entertainment (e.g., Biden on “Will & Grace”)
Free (news) versus Paid (ads)
News Medium: broadcast, newsprint, radio, Internet,
social media
Paid Medium: door-to-door, leaflets, direct mail,
electronic mail, phone banks, ads
Note: Much wider diversity of media & outlets is a huge
challenge for media scholars
5. Reinforcement of existing attitudes
Attitude change (persuasion)
Political learning
Subtle media effects
Framing
Priming
Agenda setting
6. Trade-off in internal & external validity (next
slide)
Survey methods (dominant in Political Science)
Experiments (dominant in Psychology)
Triangulation: Methodological pluralism to
enhance external & internal validity of findings
Both: Survey & Experiments
Lab Experiments (using adult subjects)
Field Experiments (may talk about later)
Survey experiments (a hybrid)
Internet surveys (experiments via survey)
7. Trade-off between two types of validity: external
versus internal validity
: Can we state that the
independent variables caused the dependent variable
or are there confounding factors that make such
conclusions tenuous?
: Can we generalize the results
of the current study across people, settings, and
outcomes?
: External validity... tend[s] to preoccupy critics
of experiments. This near obsession... tend[s] to be used to
dismiss experiments....
8. Surveys Lab Experiments Depth Interviews Focus Groups
Strengths External validity: Internal validity: Insights: Insights:
Generalize findings Identifying cause-and- •“Soak & poke” in long Beyond superficial
from representative effect relationships via interviews with a handful responses
sample to random assign. of of respondents to see How people think
population participants to diff. how they think and why How different
“Natural” setting treatments or no (e.g., about Will & Grace). groups think
treatment •Allow subjects to Social influences
Less expensive “reveal” meaning vs. Less expensive:
inferring it from simple quick & dirty
survey responses.
•Less expensive
Weaknesses Internal validity: External validity: External & Internal External & Internal
validity validity
Identifying cause- Unrepresentativeness
&-effect of subjects? Generalizability of
relationships Laboratory setting? “sample,” social
Superficial Unrealistic dynamics, setting.
responses procedures, stimuli?
Response bias
(social desirability)
Expensive
10. 1. Is it random? Is the sample some variant of a probability (random)
sample? Does everyone in the population have an equal chance of
being selected?
a) If not, the sample is not representative of the population; it is
biased (e.g., Kinsey Institute, Howard Stern & SLOP polls, Time
Magazine’s “Person of the Century” poll). Bad surveys.
b) The results of a non-random sample cannot be generalized to the
population.
2. Is it large enough? Is the random sample large enough to avoid large
amounts of sampling error? (is it > 600?)
3. Is the polling firm reputable? Most reputable polls rely on some variant
of a random sample. Are there “house” effects from surveys that lean
Republican or Democratic? (see Nate Silver)
4. Sampling errors are just the "tip of the iceberg" in terms of problems
or errors with public opinion polls, and tend to give the reader a false
sense of the accuracy of polling results.
11. NYT: “The nationwide telephone poll was
conducted Sept. 10 to Sept. 14 with 881
registered voters and has a margin of
sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage
points.”
12. In 1908, William Sealy Gosset
(1876-1937), invented a
statistical test that would
change the sciences.
Lesson: Good beer & good science go
together!
13. Man of the Century: Adolf Hitler and Eric Cartman (Time)
To usher in the New Millennium and say goodbye to the old, Time magazine sponsored an online poll to name the Person
of the Century. At one point late in the balloting, Jesus Christ led the list, followed by Adolf Hitler and Eric Cartman (a character
on the "South Park" cartoon show who finished 14th in People's Beautiful People Poll).
Everybody Loves Tom! (Parade)
2005 was an Annus Horribilis for actor Tom Cruise. There was that unfortunate bit of couch-bouncing on the Oprah Winfrey
show and his publicized bashing of Brook Shields for using physician-prescribed drugs to treat her depression.
Parade.com decided to conduct an online poll to see if people thought Tom had only himself to blame for his troubles or
whether it was the media’s fault. A whopping 84% of respondents blamed the media. “We at Parade found this a little bit
fishy—so we did some investigating. We found out more than 14,000 (of the 18,000+ votes) that came in, were cast from only 10
computers! Furthermore, there was one computer responsible for nearly 8,400 votes alone, all blaming the media for Tom's
troubles. We also discovered that at least two other machines were the sources of inordinate numbers of votes….There is even a
chance they wrote a special "bot" program for the sole purpose of skewing the results, rather than casting the votes by hand on a
computer.”
Girls Just Want to Have Too Much Fun (AMA)
In March of 2006, the American Medical Association reported disturbing rates of binge drinking and unprotected sex
among college women during spring break. The report was based on what the researchers claimed was a survey of “a random
sample” of 644 women. The survey results were breathlessly reported on the Today Show, the CBS Early Show, and hundreds of
reports followed on local television and radio newscasts. The findings also were reported in the Time magazine, and in a chart that
ran in the New York Times.
One problem: The sample was not random. The results were based on only women who volunteered to answer the question as
part of an online survey panel. Only about a quarter of these women had ever gone on a spring break trip. The Times
eventually published a correction explaining the misrepresentation.
16. Declining “coverage” in an age of increased
cell phone use, caller id, and fewer land-lines.
Move to Internet surveys.
Causal Inference!
Move to Internet surveys as online experiments?
17. Some correlations…
More people die in cities with more doctors.
▪ What this means: Doctors are dangerous, like zombies!
Students with more clothes have higher SAT
scores.
▪ Buy more clothes to get into a good school!
Those with long hair live longer than those with
short hair.
▪ Never cut your hair!
18. Meese commission on pornography (1985)
Upward trend in availability of pornographic material is
associated with an increase in crime and violence
generally in North America.
▪ Is there a directionality problem?
▪ Is there a possible third variable problem?
▪ Incidence of violent crime will positively correlate with anything
that increased during the same period of time.
▪ Correlation between the incidence of rape and membership in the
Southern Baptist church was very high (+.96) during the same time
period.
▪ Correlation between Halloween and moral decay.
19. Survey research as correlational: are two or more factors
naturally associated in the real world?
Method of choice among traditional political scientists.
Strength is external validity (generalizing findings of the sample
to the population);
Weakness is internal validity (detecting cause & effect),
▪ which is especially problematic for cross-sectional, one-shot surveys.
Experimental research: manipulating some factor to see
its effect on another factor.
Method of choice among psychologists
Strength is internal validity, the gold standard for understanding
causation;
Weakness is external validity,
▪ but too often this is taken as an excuse to reject experiments by “old
school” political scientists.
20. Do attack (negative) ads discourage turnout?
Survey research answer: No, recall of attack ads is actually
associated with greater turnout, so voters are mobilized, not
demobilized.
▪ Problem: Recall of attack ads is highly unreliable. And people who
forget seeing an ad are less politically engaged, even though they can
be influenced by such ads. Thus, the association between recall of ads
and turnout is a spurious artifact.
21. Recall Recall of Ads
Political
of Ads Engagement
Turnout
Turnout
Actual: the association is
spurious—due to common
Hypothesized dependence on Political
by survey research Engagement.
22. Experimental answer: Subjects who
viewed attack ads were 2.5% less likely to
vote than the control group (who viewed
no ads) & 5% less likely to turnout than
those viewing positive ads.
The ads were a single 30-second political ad
embedded in a 15 minute newscast.
23. Subjects randomly assigned to 4
different versions of the ad varied
by:
• Candidate (Feinstein vs. Wilson)
• Ad Tone (Positive vs. Negative)
Feinstein, Feinstein,
Pos. Neg.
Wilson, Wilson,
Pos. Neg.
Product comparison versus “attacks” filled with lies,
distortions and inflammatory images.
24. This summer, a group of well-financed conservative activists had an idea for what they hoped would be a
last-minute game changer in the presidential race
A new anti-Obama DVD is dropping into voters’ mailboxes, claiming that the president is the love child
of an illicit relationship between his mother, Stanley Ann Dunham, and Frank Marshall Davis, a
Communist party loyalist.
They went to the unusual length of arranging a focus group to test anti-Obama films. Conducted by
Frank Luntz, the well-known Republican research analyst, a 30-person focus group looked at three
choices: Dinesh D’Souza’s “2016: Obama’s America,” which theorizes that the president’s political
beliefs were shaped by the radical “anticolonial” views of his Kenyan father; “The Hope and the
Change,” a softer critique of the president that features interviews with disaffected former Obama
supporters; and “Dreams From My Real Father,” which posits the implausible theory that the
president’s real father is Mr. Davis, and that Mr. Davis indoctrinated him with Marxist views early on.
25. James N. Druckman
How does television affect political
behavior?
Half the participants watched a televised version of the
first Kennedy-Nixon debate
The other half listened to an audio version.
I used this debate in part because despite popular
conceptions, there is no extant evidence that television
images had any impact on audience reactions. I find that
television images have significant effects—they:
affect overall debate evaluations
prime people to rely more on personality
perceptions in their evaluations
enhance what people learn
Television images matter in politics, and may have
indeed played an important role in the first Kennedy-
Nixon debate.
Note: only used students who had not heard about the
Kennedy-Nixon debate.
26. Experiments are social situations that are constructed
to simulate important features of our daily lives. They
involve:
Random Assignment of Participants (subjects randomly
assigned to diff. conditions)
Standardization (Control, Manipulating variables)
Placebo effects (control condition)
Well-designed experiments also guard against
Experimental bias
(1) Expectancy effects
(2) Experimenter bias
(3) Demand characteristics (use of deception)
27. Standardization (Control: Manipulating
variables): goal is to vary just one or two factors
(independent variables) at a time to pinpoint
how changes in just one or two things influence
behavior (the dependent variable).
The experimental conditions are exactly the same in
every respect, except one factor, the independent
variable. Thus, if the dependent variable varies across
the experimental conditions, we know the
manipulation caused the change.
28. Random assignment: Because we can never include (and
statistically control for) all the factors that might influence
the dependent variable, randomly assigning each subject
to a treatment group eliminates all extraneous factors in
one fell swoop. Because the people in each treatment
group would—in every conceivable way—average about
the same for most characteristics.
29. Same design for clinical trials to determine causal impact of treatments for alcoholism, Hepatitis C, etc.
Why do funding agencies in health insist on experiments to test impact of treatments?
30. Placebo effects: Control conditions help
determine the extent of placebo effects (simply
being in an experiment) in an experimental
manipulation.
Not all experiments have control conditions, but the
ones that do allow one to rule out placebo effects.
31. Expectancy effects, Experimenter bias,
Demand characteristics. Use deception to
ensure that subjects cannot determine
the relevant hypotheses or tests.
Example: impact of real campaign ads
32. Replication: “You gotta problem?”—with something
about the experiment (the treatments, setting,
subjects)?
Experimenters have a solution: replicate the experiment
on every dimension except the one you want to vary. If
the results are different, it is likely due to that one factor.
If they are the same, you have more confidence in the
results.
Example: make the “attack” ads more negative, or have
people watch more ads over time, or use subjects from
another city, etc.
33. Threats to external validity: David Sears on college
sophomores.
For what types of attitudes and behaviors does Sears say
findings from college sophomores may not generalize to people
in general?
▪ They have less crystallized attitudes, easier to change
▪ They are very attentive and willing to be effortful and complete any task
▪ They tend to be more socially liberal than the general population
Responding to Sears:
Studies show that as long as there is some variation on the independent variable
among student subjects, experimental effects can still be detected. Only when there
is no variation will we fail to detect the impact of the independent variable on the
dependent variable.
Even if the content of people’s attitudes & behavior varies across subgroups and
cultures, the process by which they think and act does not vary.
Bottom line: critics are the ones who need to defend their criticisms of
using college sophomores. Blanket dismissals won’t cut it!
34. Advantages (internal validity)
1. Ability to test causal inferences.
2. Ability to explore the details of process.
3. Relative economy.
Disadvantages (external validity)
1. Sampling bias: Unrepresentative subject pools (i.e., over-use of
college sophomores).
2. Artificial environment, esp. in terms of “Mundane realism” (any
superficial appearance of reality. The similarity of experimental
events to everyday experiences.)
▪ But need to consider “Experimental realism” (the experiment captures the intended
essence of the situation when subjects are caught up in the experiment and are truly
influenced by it).
3. In the treatment condition, everyone is exposed to the treatment which
may not be an accurate portrayal of reality (e.g., attention levels, remote
controls).
35. Survey & experiments (influence of TV violence,
cigarette smoking)
Survey experiments (hybrid)
▪ Question wording experiments (text only)
▪ Internet surveys (video experiments via survey)
36. In 1991, big correlation between whites’
negative stereotypes of blacks and their
opposition to welfare. Most whites
mistakenly assumed that blacks were the
principal beneficiary of welfare.
Can we conclude that negative racial
stereotypes cause opposition to welfare?
Why or why not?
37. Now think about a [black woman, white woman]
in her early twenties with a ten year old child
and who has been on welfare for the past year.
½ respondents randomly assigned to the black
welfare mother condition
Other ½ respondents randomly assigned to the
white welfare mother condition
Question: why not ask everyone about both the
black and the white welfare mothers and then
compare responses?
The two conditions (questions) are exactly the
same in every respect, except for the race of the
welfare mother.
Any differences in responses must be due to the
manipulation.
38. Conclusion: The much higher correlation between attitudes toward Black than White welfare mother
and opposition to welfare shows: When Whites think of welfare, they think of Black welfare
mothers, not white welfare mothers.
39. Appendix I. Morphed Images
For each candidate, 3 images were morphed.1 This procedure removes distinctive features and creates a very
“average” face; it also increases attractiveness. Because each candidate shares 2 images, the resulting faces are
extremely similar while appearing to be distinct individuals. This methodology diminishes the likelihood that
support differentials across treatment groups are due to different target candidates.
White Candidate 1:
+ +
A B C
White Candidate 2:
+ +
A B D
40. Light-skinned Black Candidate:
+ +
A E F
Dark-skinned Black Candidate1:
+ +
E F G
The dark-black candidate was purposefully generated from all black
images so that he is different from the light-skinned black candidate in both
complexion and phenotype (his nose and lips are more afrocentric). The
hair and eyebrows of the light-skinned candidate have also been digitally
lightened
1
.
Editor's Notes
Reporting only sampling error gives a misleading impression of scientific precision of survey results. Because it is the only easily quantifiable source of survey error, journalists like to report it, but saying the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3% gives a misleading impression of scientific precision about surveys because it ignores all other sources of error which are not quantifiable and usually go unreported.
Could also point out that statistical sampling theory was based, in part, on a Guinness brewmaster’s (Oxford graduate, William Gosset, who had a degree in chemistry and mathematics) method for “sampling” yeast cultures from a jar to estimate whether they would produce excellent beer worthy of the Guinness name! The application to public opinion is fairly straightforward. We want to find out about the opinions of the public at large, but we can only afford to study a small sample of people. We’re then faced with Gosset's Guinness problem: How well does this sample estimate what is going on in the larger population?