2. Party Polarization Trends in the U.S.
House
Major Patterns
Both parties have become more
ideologically polarized in the last 40 years.
Congressional Republicans have moved
further to the right than Democrats to the
left during this period; moderate
Republicans have virtually disappeared from
Congress.
Most of the change among congressional
Democrats can be attributed to the loss of
moderate-to-conservative Southern
Democrats.
Overall, the parties are now ideologically
homogenous and distant from one
another. Bipartisan agreements to fix the
budgetary problems of the country are now
almost impossible to reach.
Little hope for change, with steady trends
toward polarization driven by underlying
structural economic and social factors—
income inequality, cultural conflict, and
“hot button” issues such as abortion.
3. Same Information presented a different way: Degree of
polarization (Ideological Distance) between parties in
House.
4. Questions for Why Americans Hate
the Media and How It Matters
Chs 5-8
5. Chapter 5
What causes people to distrust the media?
What are the possibilities that we’ve
considered so far?
Trends in styles of news coverage?
Ideologues?
Elite criticism
6. Survey experiments
Survey experiments: hybrid method, an experiment that is
administered to a representative population sample.
Internal validity (random assignment of respondents to infer “what
causes what”)
AND External validity (diverse, adult random samples allow one to
generalize to population of interest)
7. Example: Vesla M. Weaver, “Race, Skin Color, and Candidate Preference”
Light-skinned Black Candidate:
+ +
A E F
Dark-skinned Black Candidate1:
+ +
E F G
The dark-black candidate was purposefully generated from all black
images so that he is different from the light-skinned black candidate in both
complexion and phenotype (his nose and lips are more afrocentric). The
hair and eyebrows of the light-skinned candidate have also been digitally
lightened
1
.
8. Vesla M. Weaver, “Race, Skin Color, and Candidate Preference”
Appendix I. Morphed Images
For each candidate, 3 images were morphed.1 This procedure removes distinctive features and creates a very
“average” face; it also increases attractiveness. Because each candidate shares 2 images, the resulting faces are
extremely similar while appearing to be distinct individuals. This methodology diminishes the likelihood that
support differentials across treatment groups are due to different target candidates.
White Candidate 1:
+ +
A B C
White Candidate 2:
+ +
A B D
9. Survey experiments
Example: Rashotte and Webster (2005): Do people rate males higher in
intelligence and competence than females?
Lab experiment with college students: Participants were presented with a picture
of a male or female individual, David or Diane. The photos were taken from a public
website, www.hotornot.com, where, for inexplicable reasons, people post their
pictures to be rated by anonymous others. Use photos rated average in
attractiveness to control for that.
Both males & females gave higher competence ratings to David than Diane, regardless of whether they
stated beliefs in gender equality or not.
Replication in the general population:
Their findings on gender did not generalize to the general population.
Age of the target had a much stronger impact than gender did, and the findings for gender varied based
on whether people were evaluating intelligence, competence, or some other dimension of status. Older
men and women were consistently rated as more competent than younger men and women.
10. Ladd’s Survey experiments, 2007, 2008
What causes people to distrust the media?
Internet survey, Knowledge Networks. TESS (TIME-
SHARING EXPERIMENTS FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES).
Two questions:
1. First, randomly assign respondents to different descriptions of
news stories and elite criticisms to see what types of people are
influenced by what types of news stories.
2. Second, feeling thermometer ratings of the news media.
11. Variants of treatments
First question: 6 different versions randomly assigned.
Control (no story described): Everyone receives this intro. "We are interested in how well the news media gets
information out to the public. There are so many news stories these days that most people have trouble following
them all. Have you been following stories in the news media recently?“
Recently, the media has reported stories that criticize both President Bush and the Democrats in Congress.
Recently, the media has reported on President Bush's standing in opinion polls, especially when his popularity has
increased and decreased. Have you heard these stories?“
Recently, the media has reported on the death of Anna Nicole Smith. Have you heard this story?“
Recently, Republican politicians have criticized the media for being overly critical of President Bush. Have you
heard this story?“
Recently, Democratic politicians have criticized the media for being too friendly with President Bush. Have you
heard this story?“
Second question: media evaluation
"We'd like you to rate the news media on a scale we call a 'feeling thermometer.' It runs from 0 to 100 degrees.
Ratings between 50 degrees and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable toward the news media. Ratings between
0 degrees and 50 degrees mean that you feel unfavorable toward the news media…
12. Findings
What types of stories make what types of
people more unfavorable toward the media?
13. Average effects of types of stories for everyone (Dems &
Reps): Ignoring differences across types of respondents
Why look at everyone, and then at Democrats & Republicans who are
educated and ideological?
14. Types of stories and types of people
• What differences do you see across parties and how do you explain them?
• Why are Republicans more unfavorable toward the news media for horserace
stories, for example?
15. Exploring another wrinkle with a
replication in March, 2008.
Three more versions to assess the impact of “news bias:”
(Coverage favors Democrats):Recently, the news media has reported stories critical of
President Bush and supportive of the Democratic majority in Congress. Have you seen these
stories?
(Coverage favors Republicans): Recently, the news media has reported stories supportive of
President Bush and critical of the Democratic majority in Congress.
(Control, Coverage): Recently, the news media has reported stories about President Bush and
the Democratic majority in Congress.
Findings: No effect. Disapproval of media did not vary across stories or people, so
“news bias didn’t have effect on approval of media.”
Question: Do you agree?
16. Limitations of Ladd’s survey experiments
In replication, Ladd is measuring news slant (e.g., Dems more favorable
coverage than Bush) versus political news bias.
Survey experiments (versus lab experiments) are more influenced by the
real world. Respondents are not a blank slate.
By 2007, 2008, Dems & Reps were already set in their views and manipulations
of stories about slant/bias may have had little effect.
Asking people about a type of story is not the same as exposing them to
an actual story.
Trade-off between internal and external validity.
See Arceneaux’s study of partisan media where participants watch either Bill O’Reilly or
Rachel Maddox.
17. Survey on Political Internet and Talk
Radio Use and Media Trust
2008:
Read, watched or listened to information on the
Internet about the campaign?
Republicans less trusting of media if got their news
from Internet.
What causes what? Internal validity? Selection bias.
1996, 2000:
Republicans listening to talk radio everyday less
trusting of media.
Internal validity? Selection bias.
(likely) Exposure tapped by asking how many hours
drive everyday.
What is selection bias, and why is it
important for studies of media effects?
18. Ch. 6. News Media Trust & Political
Learning
Why is it difficult to detect media effects on
public opinion? List several reasons.
19. Learning about broad national conditions in
2000, at the end of Clinton’s 2 terms
Do partisans who distrust the news rely more on their
partisanship to assess objective conditions?
Question: Since 1992, would you say [deficit, economy, crime, etc.] has
gotten better, worse or has not changed?
Correct Answer: Objectively speaking, by 2000, the correct answer to
many questions is that things got better by 2000.
Note:Is this an equal “test” for Democrats and Republicans?
Why or why not?
Democrats find it easier to learn information congenial to their partisan
biases, so the real test is for Republicans, who may find it hard to admit.
20. On average, Republicans who trust the media are more likely
to acknowledge that...
Click to edit Master text styles
Second level
Third level
▪ Fourth level
▪ Fifth level
• Controlling for
political knowledge.
• Why don’t Democrats
move?
• What’s the matter
with Republicans?
• Limitations?
• Static
• Selection bias
• Memory
22. Panel study, measuring how perceptions
of current conditions change, not recall
Among those who
trust media,
between 2000 and
2002, become more
worried about
conventional and
nuclear war. Which
means?
Limitations?
23. Over time, low confidence in press use of
other news sources to follow campaign
Click to edit Mas Reading mainstream magazine.
ter text styles
Second level
Third level
Reading partisan magazine
▪ Fourth level
▪ Fifth level
People with low confidence in the press
are more likely to gravitate toward
magazines with a clear policy agenda.
24. Summary
People who distrust the press are more
resistant to new information about the state
of the nation in major policy areas because:
less influenced by mainstream press.
more likely to turn to more opinionated sources of
news (e.g., Internet and partisan news like Fox
and MSNBC).
25. Iyengar: Appendix to Ch. 8
Partisan differences in
acceptance of Iraq War
messages
Even after revelations by
several U.S. government &
international commissions,
Republicans still resisted
those media messages. Why?
26. Misperceptions Tied to Particular news Outlets?
(3 to 6 months after the Iraq invasion)
But not a causal relationship
27. Misperceptions in 2004 still common, more partisan with the election
2004 election, almost 2 years after the Iraq invasion, Republicans still more misinformed.
2005, 2006
28. Why such polarized perceptions?
Different information source: Republicans more
misinformed if they watched Fox News.
Resistance to contrary information: Even if Republicans
read newspapers and were presumably exposed to the
same messages from the mainstream news, they resisted
the message.
Other questions:
What is the impact of partisan news?
Are Republicans more resistant than Democrats on other
issues?
29. Tone of network news coverage in 2012
(Pew content analysis study)
Horserace Campaign Stories Whoa! Looks like Romney got the
60
shaft, but this was only when adding
50
in horserace coverage.
40
Obama
Percent
30
Romney
20
10
0
Positive Mixed Negative
After removing horserace coverage,
Tone of Coverage things were pretty even, similar to
prior years (except 2008, more pro-
60 Non-Horserace Campaign Stories Obama).
50
40
Obama
30 The study of tone in news coverage is not an
Romney
20
examination of media bias. Rather, it measures the
overall impression the public is receiving in media
10 about each candidate, whether the assertion is a quote
from a source, a fact presented in the narrative that is
0 determined to be favorable or unfavorable, including
Positive Mixed Negative poll results, or is part of a journalistic analysis.
30. Partisan News (MSNBC, Fox) coverage is mostly
negative on the opposition candidate
(Pew content analysis study)
31. Social media vs. mainstream media:
(Pew content analysis study)
Social media: Relentlessly
negative & relatively unmoved
by campaign events
32. Media Effects: The Incivility of Talk Shows Decreases
Political Trust (Diana Mutz, 2005)
Professional actors were hired to play the roles of
two congressional candidates. A television studio
with a political talk show set was used to tape a Incivility of
mock program in which the disagreements Keith Obermann
appeared. & Bill O’Reilly
Two versions of each exchange were taped on the
talk show set.
Same political content in the civil and uncivil
versions of the discussion, teleprompters were
used to help the actors adhere closely to a script.
Adult subjects were recruited through temporary
employment agencies
33. Experimental Manipulation:
Randomly assigned to watch either the civil or uncivil
version of the talk show
Civil Version Uncivil Version
Verbal examples:
“I’m really glad Bob raised the issue of .
. .”
“I don’t disagree with all of your points, Verbal examples:
Bob, but . . .” “You’re really missing the point here Neil”
Civil Interaction “What Bob is completely overlooking is. . . . ”
Calmly making their own positions Uncivil interaction
clear. Raised their voices
Waiting patiently while the other Never apologized for interrupting one another.
person answered Rolling of the eyes and rueful shaking of the head
Paying attention to the opponent while from side to side.
he was speaking. Voices were raised when conflict intensified.
37. What are the effects of partisan news?
Kevin Arceneaux
Forcing people to watch uncivil talk shows, via random
assignment, may overstate the effects.
Hyperchoice environment:
If people can choose which partisan show to watch, the show
may just be “preaching to the choir.”
Who is more News seekers vs. Entertainment seekers
News Seekers:
Preaching to the choir vs. Reject out of hand
38. The Effect of Partisan News Shows on the Extremity
of Issue Attitudes in Choice Environment
Fall 2009 Selective Exposure Experiment
• The bars represent the degree to
which liberals and conservatives
become more ideologically
Click to edit Master text styles extreme in their responses after
watching partisan news (Bill
Second level O’Reilly vs. Lawrence O’Donnell)
compared to an entertainment
Third level show (the control, Pet Star on
▪ Fourth level Animal Planet).
▪ Fifth level • When people are exposed to a
partisan news show on health care,
their views become more extreme.
• However, if people are given a
choice to watch a show they agree
with the effect is much more
limited because the show is
“preaching to the choir.”
39. The Polarizing Effects of Partisan News on Tax Policy
Attitudes, among News-seekers vs. Entertainment-
seekers, Fall 2011
The bars represent the degree to
which liberals and conservatives
become more ideologically
extreme in their responses after
watching partisan news compared
to an entertainment show (the
control, Pet Star on Animal Planet).
• Entertainment--seekers (people
who prefer entertainment
shows) are much more likely
than News-seekers to become
more extreme after watching
partisan news.
• Among News-seekers, watching
counterattitudinal news that
goes against their ideology
affects them more, making them
more extreme when they defend
their attitudes. Proattitudinal
partisan news that is consistent
with their ideology has little
effect because it’s “preaching to
the choir”.