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Consumer
Confidence
Tracker
September 2013
PREPARED BY:
Luke Reaper
Behaviour & Attitudes
J.4393
Introduction
 This report presents the findings of the latest phase of the Behaviour &
Attitudes’ Consumer Confidence Tracker.

 Survey results for this phase are based on a sample of 1,001 adults aged
16+, quota controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and
region to reflect the profile of the adult population of the Republic of
Ireland.
 All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face
Barometer by trained members of the B&A field force working under
ESOMAR guidelines.
 Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between 6th and 20th
September, 2013.

2
About Behaviour & Attitudes
 Behaviour and Attitudes is Ireland’s largest and most experienced
independently owned research company.
 We pride ourselves on having the most experienced director team
in Ireland. All projects have a director involved.
 Established over 25 years ago, Behaviour and Attitudes provides a full
range of market research services, ranging from CAPI, CATI, online and of
course qualitative.
 Specialist sectors include: Retail & Shopper, Technology & Telecoms, Media,
Financial, Political & Social, Polling, Automotive, Healthcare and Public
Sector & Utilities.
 For more information please visit our website at: www.banda.ie or contact
us on +353 1 2057500.

3
Findings
Summary
 In line with other economic indicators such as the recent CSO Residential
Property Price Index (year to August 2013) consumer confidence for the
coming year has risen significantly. Although still negative, confidence is
now at its highest point since we entered the IMF Bailout in 2010. Thus the
momentum for recovery appears to be picking up pace. If we also factor in
the recent ESRI 2014 growth forecasts the picture is one of increased
positivity.
 However, a two-paced recovery in sentiment is evident. While both Dublin
and outside Dublin are displaying more positive sentiment toward the
economy, Dubliners are significantly more positive, and the gap regionally is
widening.
 The divisions in our society are also evident with the middle-upper class
(ABC1) and the farming sector (F) significantly more positive in outlook
compared to the blue collar (C2DE) sector.
 Despite a budget looming, less negativity exists regarding personal finances
for the year ahead. However we need to be cognisant of the sharp divide
between the white and blue collar sectors. Also those over 35 years of age
are more negative regarding their income next year. Note this cohort has
more responsibility and are more conservative in outlook.

5
Summary
 Our discretionary income measure is also indicating a stablisation after five
years of decline. However, note we are still at 2001 levels.
 We are also witnessing a recovery or at least a levelling off in the perceived
ability to save. Again the Dublin region is less negative compared to those
outside Dublin across 2013.
 Overall any growth in personal financial perceptions is finely balanced. We
must remember that the Irish consumer is sensitive, as is the Irish
economy, to external reports and trends. However consumers, especially
those in Dublin, have a more positive outlook towards 2014. It will be
important to track and understand how the various cohorts of our society
emerge from these ‘dark times’ as we are witnessing societal divisions.

6
Summary
 The table below summarises the net scores for each element of the
September survey, alongside those from previous waves since 2010.
Pre 2008
Historic Low

2010

2011

2012

2013

Net Scores

Net Scores

Net Scores

Net Scores

Date

Net
Score

Date

Score

Mar

July

Nov

Jan

April

July

Nov

Mar

May

Sept

Nov

Feb

Apr

July

Sept

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Economy - looking back
a year

Nov '02

-62

-81

-50

-82

-86

-72

-59

-69

-64

-56

-57

-62

-51

-53

-46

-27

Economy - looking
forward one year

Nov '02

-63

-54

-20

-74

-70

-58

-45

-64

-52

-44

-50

-60

-39

-44

-36

-18

Personal income looking back a year

Nov '02

-40

-65

-43

-67

-72

-64

-50

-59

-61

-56

-52

-60

-52

-55

-47

-38

Personal income looking forward a year

Nov '02

-20

-54

-33

-65

-69

-55

-43

-57

-50

-49

-52

-52

-48

-54

-47

-34

Personal assets looking forward one
year

Jan'02

-2

-49

-26

-55

-50

-44

-31

-41

-39

-28

-31

-33

-21

-29

-20

-10

Purchasing intentions the year ahead

Nov '02

-24

-51

-36

-56

-67

-55

-37

-51

-46

-40

-44

-48

-43

-43

-40

-29

Savings - the year
ahead

Nov '02

-35

-53

-37

-54

-60

-54

-39

-50

-51

-42

-45

-52

-44

-48

-44

-31

Although still negative, our confidence in the economy for the coming year is at its highest
point since we entered the IMF Bailout in 2010. And for the first time over the last 4 years,
more positive purchasing intentions have emerged. The value of personal assets and
income are also showing positive movement for the year ahead.

7
Economy – Looking Back
COUNTRY IS NOW …

LONG TERM

2011

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Better
off

13%

6% 2% 5% 5% 7%
7%

7%
23%

29% 31%

22%

Same

July

Nov

17%
27%

19%
27%

Mar

May Sept

2013
Nov

6% 8% 8% 5%
24%

29% 28%

28%

Feb

April July

9% 9% 10%

31% 28%

34%

Sept

18%

35%
38%

42%
45%

50%
46%

91%
70%

66%

Worse
off

Apr

2% 5%
7% 6%
10%

18% 19%

23%

27%

Jan

2012

88%
77%

76% 76%
66%

66%

75%

53%
35%

70%

67%
62% 64%

60% 62%

55%
45%

26% 23% 28%

Gap -40 -59 -13 +3 +8 -6 -64 -89 -71 -71 -59

-86 -72 -59 -69

-64 -56 -57 -62

-51 -53 -46 -27

Negativity related to our current economic situation continues to reduce and is at its lowest point
since the recession began. The momentum for recovery appears to be picking up pace.

Q.1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse
off, or about the same as last year?

8
The Future: Psychologically, we may be ready to
move on in 2014
Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report

Balance
+/10

Dublin
-4
Outside -23

0
-10

Looking Forward

-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70

-18

Looking Back

-20

-42

-44

-45

-41 -56

-58

-54

-65
-66 -67 -65
-69
-55
-74 -76
-69

-80

-73

-90

-77 -79

-93

-100

-50
-74

-70

-86

-81

-82

-50

-56 -57

-59
-69

-36

-64

-27

-44

-60

-64

-72

-91

-88

-52

-58

-39

-51 -53

-46

-62

-86

Jan Mar July Sept Oct Dec Mar May Sept Nov Mar July Nov Jan Apr July Nov Mar May Sept Nov Feb Apr July Sept

2008

Initial shock!
 But widespread belief that:

2009

2010

Despair! (IMF
Bailout)

 Things would return to ‘normal’

 Spending habits and
behaviour changing
for good

 Spending reined in – but not in any
planned or strategic manner

 Value sought
everywhere

 This was a ‘speedbump’

2011
Readjustment
 People adjusting
to ‘new reality’
 Less focus on
(or interest in)
doom and
gloom

2012

2013

Movement towards positivity
 A significant uplift in the
consumer mood vs pre
budget last year.
 However a Dublin vs
outside Dublin recovery is
evident.

Q.1

Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year?

Q.2

And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

9
Economy – Looking Forward
Country will be …
LONG TERM

2011

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Better
off

13% 9%

8%
20%

25% 26%

6%

19%

12% 9%

9%

6%

Apr

8%

July

12%

18%

20%
25%

24%

32%

Jan

27%

Nov

8%

Mar

May Sept

30%

31%

2013
Nov

9% 11% 11% 6%

20%

25%

30%

2012

43%

April July

Sept

14% 12% 14%

20%

28%

33%

28%
32%

38%

Same

Feb

33%

36%
43%

47%
48% 48%

67%

59%

76%

74%
61%

67%

61%

49%

Worse
off

Gap

37%
27% 26%

-36 -50 -17 -2

72%

66%
57%

61%

55%

61%

66%

53% 55% 50%
37%

34%

= -15 -59 -68 -49 -58 -52

-70 -58 -45 -64

-52 -44 -50 -60

-39 -44 -36 -18

Perceptions related to the future of the Irish economy are at their highest
level since 2007. While still in the negative, belief in the future of the Irish
economy is improving.
Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about
the same as this year?

10
Balance Of Opinion - Economy
Long Term
Balance +/-

10

3

8

0

-13

-10
-30

Looking Back

-6

Looking Forward

-50 -40

-49

-50

-60

-59

-59
-68

-58

-58
-70

-71 -71

-90

-89
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YEARLY
AVERAGES

-44

-45

-52
-59

-64

-80
-100

-18

-15

-36

-40

-70

-2 0
-17

-20

Short Term

-52

-39
-50
-60

-64
-59

-72

-64
-69

-56 -57

-51

-62

-36
-44

-27

-46
-55

-86
Jan

Apr

July

2011

Nov

Mar

May

Sept

2012

Nov

Feb

Apr

July

Sept

2013

When viewed longitudinally a pattern of consistent improvement has been noted
over the past two years.

11
Economy – Looking Forward x
Demographics
Country will be …
Total

SEPTEMBER 2013

Gender

Age

Male

Better
off

Same

Worse
off

Gap

Female

1005

485

520

352

359

294

452

%

Base:

%

%

%

%

%

%

20

43

21

43

18

44

37

36

38

-18

-15

-20

18-34 35-54

Social Class

22

43

35

-14

55+

19

18

42

45

Dublin

Leinster

Munster

482

71

278

265

285

177

727

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

16

17

47

44

37

40

-21

-23

15

-20

38

-20

25

27

20

14

42

42
43
44

39

48

42

44
31

-5

Any
Conn/
Outside
Ulster
Dublin

F

ABC1 C2DE

25

Region

27

-29

-2

31

-4

37

-17

44

-29

A socio-economic and regional divide in terms of recovery.
Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off
or about the same as this year?

12
Economy – Looking Forward Trended x
Region
Base: All adults 18+
Balance
+/-

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
-55
-60
-65
-70

2012

2013

-4
The gap is
widening indicating
a two tier recovery.

-23
-38
-44
-42

Dublin

-32

-48

-30
-39

Outside Dublin

-60
-52
Sep 12

-61
Nov 12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Q.1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse
off, or about the same as last year?

13
Personal Finances – Looking Back
Now feel …

LONG TERM

2011

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Better off

15%

9%

11%
21%

2%

5%

5%

25% 26% 24%

3%

Apr

5%

July

Nov

Mar

5%

5%

31%

7%

29%

2013

May Sept

Nov

Feb

April July

5%

4%

6%

6%

7%

7%

26%

33% 30% 33%

36%

34%

32%
35%

36% 33%

9%

40%
45%

46%

45%

Sept

21%
32%

Same

4%

Jan

2012

47%
47%
51% 52% 56%
75%
65% 62% 66%
62%

Worse off 38%

69%
57%

64%

66%

61% 59% 64%

58% 61%

44%

44%

53%

47%

32%
24% 22%
20%

Gap

-23 -34 -11 +1

+4 +4 -35 -63 -58 -61 -57

-72 -64 -50 -59

-61 -56 -52 -60

-52 -55 -47 -38

Perceptions of personal finances are still negative. However, the degree of
negativity is reducing with the scores now at 2008 level.
Q.3 Do you feel better off financially, worse off financially or about the same compared to last year?

14
Personal Finances – Looking Back x
demographics
Now feel …
Total

SEPTEMBER 2013
Age

Male Female

Base:

Gender

18-34 35-54

Social Class

Region

55+

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

Leinster

Any
Mun- Conn/
Outside
ster Ulster
Dublin

1005

485

520

352

359

294

452

482

71

278

265

285

177

727

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better
off

9

10

7

Same

45

44

46

Worse
off

47

46

47

Gap

-38

-36

-40

13

7

41
45

43

-30

52

-44

5

50

10

8

7

40
48

45

42

-40

-32

57

52
36

-44

-29

10

11

45

45

46

44

-36

-33

Q.3 Do you feel better off financially, worse off financially or about the same compared to last year?

7

6

8

43

47

45

50

47

47

-43

-41

-39

15
Personal Finances - Looking Back x Region
Base: All adults 18+
Balance
+/-

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
-55
-60
-65
-70

2012

2013

-42

-46
-50

Sep 12

-61
Nov 12

Dublin
Outside Dublin

-50

-55
-56

-36
-39

-49
-56

-57

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Q.3 Do you feel better off financially, worse off financially or about the same compared to last year?

16
Personal Finances – Looking Forward
Expect it to be …

LONG TERM

2011

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

5%
13%

Higher

22% 22% 25%
25%

7%

7%

7%

30% 28%

Jan

Apr

5%

July

8%

2012
Nov

9%

7%

Mar

8%

May Sept

7%

7%

2013
Nov

7%

Feb

7%

April July

6%

Sept

6%

10%

20%
30%
35%

29%

28%

31% 34%

39%

35% 37% 34% 34%

38%

34%

41%
46%

The
same

52%
54% 54%
58%

58%

58% 59%

74%
64%

Lower

Gap

57%

63% 59%

64%

63%
52%

58% 56% 59% 59%

55%

60%

53%
44%

34%
24% 27%

-2

-8

17% 13%
12% 13%

+8 +16 +18 +15 -21 -59 -50 -56 -51

-69 -55 -43 -57

-50 -49 -52 -52

-48 -54 -47 -34

Despite a budget looming, less negativity exists regarding personal finances for the
year ahead.
Q.5

Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes,
to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?

17
Personal Finances – Looking Forward x
Demographics
Expect it to be …
Total

SEPTEMBER 2013

Gender

Age

Social Class

Region
Lein- Mun- Conn/ Outside
ster ster Ulster Dublin

Male

Female

18-34

35-54

55+

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

1005

485

520

352

359

294

452

482

71

278

265

285

177

727

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Higher

10

12

12

9

8

10

The
same

46

45

Lower

44

43

46

-34

-31

-37

Base:

Gap

8

46

9

5

40

14

49
49

48

50
37

-23

41

-41

46

-41

39

-27

41
59

50

49
33

-41

-26

-39

12

8

45

49

44

-32

11

10

49

47

43

40

43

-35

-29

-33

18-34s and the middle classes are more positive about their finances as they
move forward. The blue collar sector are still most concerned.
Q.5

Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes,
to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?

18
Personal Finances - Looking Forward x
Region
Base: All adults 18+
Balance
+/-

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
-55
-60
-65
-70

2012

2013

-33
-43
-55

-45

-55
-54

Sep 12

Nov 12

Q.5

-54

Feb-13

-44

Dublin

-39

Outside Dublin

-48

-56

Apr-13

-53

Jul-13

Sep-13

Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes,
to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?

19
Balance Of Opinion - Personal Finances
Long Term
Balance
+/-

16 18 15

15
5

-2

-8

-15

-35
-45
-55
-65
-75

Looking Back

8

-5

-25

Short Term

Looking Forward

1

-11

4

4

-21
-34

-23
-34

-43

-35

-50
-59

-56

-51

-57
-58
-61
-63
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YEARLY
AVERAGES

-55
-50

-69
-72
Jan

-59 -61

-64
Apr

-57

-50-49 -52

July

2011

Nov

Mar

-56
May

-52

-52

-47 -38
-47

-48
-54
-52

-55

-59
Sept

Nov

Feb

2012

Apr

July

Sept

2013

Gains being made over time. However we are still in negative territory.

20
Savings – Looking Forward
Expect
to save
…
More

LONG TERM
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

13% 11%

17% 18% 18% 18%

10%

6%

32%

The
51%
same

7%

7%

6%

27%
37% 35% 39%

Apr

7%

63%

-23 -28 -8 -5

Mar

32%

7%

6%

36%

9%

36%

May Sept

9%

Nov

6%

40% 43%

5%

Feb

April July

7%

38%
42%

7%

Sept

5%

10%

38% 45%

59%

36% 39%
19%

Nov

2013

49%

66%
55% 57% 54%

44%
25% 23%

July

2012

43%

62%

Gap

7%

Jan

46%

50%

58% 59%

Less

2011

61%

57%
48%

57%

51% 51%

57%

51%

55%

50%
41%

23%

-1 -5 -34 -56 -48 -50 -48

-60 -54 -39 -50

-51 -42 -45 -52

-44 -48 -44 -31

A stabilisation or at least a recovery in the ability to save
(with the more positive economic sentiment) is evident.
Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with
the last twelve months?

21
Savings – Looking Forward
Expect to save …

SEPTEMBER 2013
Total

Gender
Male

Female

1005
%

485
%

520
%

More

10

11

10

The
same

49

50

48

41

39

42

-30

-29

-32

Age

Base:

Less

Gap

18-34 35-54
352
%

17

359
%

8

50

Social Class
55+

ABC1

C2DE

F

294
%

452
%

482
%

71
%

4

53

45

37

-20

14

8

46

44

-34

-40

15

34

-37

Mun- Conn/ Outside
ster Ulster Dublin

265
%

285
%

177
%

7

9

8

8

53

51

39

41

-30

-33

43

56
45

45

-21

278
%

3

52

42

Region
LeinDublin
ster

57

48

40

39

35

-37

-24

-28

-39

Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months?

727
%

22
Savings – Looking Forward x Region
Balance
+/-

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
-55
-60
-65
-70

2012

2013

-29

-24
-34
-46

-50

Sep 12

-35

Dublin

-33

-43
-48
-47

More positivity in
Dublin over the
last 3 waves.

-53

-54

Nov 12

Outside Dublin

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with
the last twelve months?

23
Personal Assets– Looking Forward
Expect them to be …

LONG TERM

2011

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Higher

10%
19% 22%

28%

36% 38%

2% 4% 5%
7%

Jan

2%

Apr

July

2012
Nov

5% 7% 7%

Mar

May Sept

2013
Nov

Feb

7% 6%
9% 8%

April July

Sept

9% 8% 11% 12%

28%

42%

43%

47% 46%

45%

54%

55%

45%
54%

51% 56% 55% 55%

62%

56%
59%
66%

No
68% 65%
change
64%

65%
59% 57%

55%
35%

Lower
Gap

13% 13%

52%

47% 47%
38%

49%

48%
38%

40%

36% 38% 39%

30%

37%

31%

22%

7% 5% 5% 8%

+6 +9 +21 +31 +33 +20 -25 -53 -43 -41 -31

-50 -44 -31 -41

-39 -28 -31 -33

-21 -29 -20 -10

The fieldwork was conducted prior to recent publicity surrounding increased housing prices in
Dublin. The figures at this point in time indicate belief in some asset value recovery.

Q.6

Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings)
In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?

24
Personal Assets– Looking Forward
Expect them
to be …

SEPTEMBER 2013
Total

Gender
Male

Female

Age
18-34 35-54

Social Class
55+

ABC1 C2DE

Region

F

Dublin

Leinster

Munster

Conn/ Outside
Ulster Dublin

Base:

1005

485

520

352

359

294

452

482

71

278

265

285

177

727

Higher

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

12

14

10

11

9

72

68

No
change

Lower

Gap

66

66

22

20

-11

-6

Q.6

9

66

25

-16

10

14

11

70

62

66

25

22

19

-11

-11

-4

20

-10

15

9

66
65

25

-17

13

16

68

59

19

-6

25

-9

22

17

-7

-11

Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings)
In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?

64

27

-18

10

68

21

-11

25
Personal Assets– Looking Forward x Region
Expect them
to be …
Balance
+/-

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
-55
-60
-65
-70

2012

2013

-9

-12
-18
-25

-21

-29

-23

-22
-34

Sep 12

Q.6

Dublin
Outside Dublin

-32

-33

Nov 12

-11

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings)
In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?

26
Purchasing Goods And Services – Looking
Forward
Expect to
purchase
2002
…
More

LONG TERM

2011

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

16% 15% 18%
20% 21% 20%

10%

3%

5%

4%

5%

Jan

2%

Apr

5%

42%

39%

34%

Mar

5%

44%

50%

May Sept

5%

5%

Nov

5%

Feb

6%

April July

7%

Sept

6%

8%

50%

46%

42%

46% 44%
49%
55%

58% 58%
64%

64% 65% 65%
69%

66%
52%

56%

60%
50%

39%

Gap

4%

41%

45%

50%

Less

7%

Nov

2013

29%

31%

The
same

July

2012

55%
44%

51%

45%

49%

53%

49% 49%

45%
37%

26% 27%
18% 16%
14% 15%

-10 -12 = +4 +7 +5 -29 -63 -47 -52 -45

-67 -55 -37 -51

-46 -40 -44 -48

-43 -43 -40 -29

A breakthrough in perceptions of purchasing next year (2008 levels). Note we
are still in negative territory, but a significant drop in negativity has occurred.
Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services
as in the past year?

27
Balance Of Opinion – The Year Ahead
Expectations in regard to assets value, purchases, and savings

Long Term
Balance
+/40

31

30

10
0
-10

6

9

-10 -12

-30
-40
-50
-60

-23

-28

Purchase

20
4

7

Savings

5

-8
-12

-20

Assets Value

33

21

20

Short Term

-5

-1

-10
-5

-20

-21
-25
-29

-34

-31
-43

-53

-41

-44

-45

-50
-48 -50 -48
-47
-60
-52

-63 -56

-70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YEARLY
AVERAGES

-28

-31

-54

-41 -39
-37
-39 -50

-40

-46
-42

-55 -51

-51

Jul

Mar

-29

-31 -33
-44 -48

-45
-52

-43

-43

-29
-40

-31

-44 -48 -44

-67
Jan

Apr

2011

Nov

May Sept Nov

2012

Feb

Apr

July Sept

2013

Improvements are noted and momentum is slowly improving. However, any further
imposition that directly affects real incomes of consumers will impact this area negatively
(ie the Budget!). Growth in personal financial situations is now finely balanced.

28
Purchasing Goods And Services – Looking
Forward
Expect to purchase …

Total

SEPTEMBER 2013

Gender
Male

Base:

1005
%

Female

485
%

520
%

8

7

9

55

58

35

39

-29

-27

-30

18-34 35-54
352
%

359
%

Social Class
55+
294
%

14

6

2

53

53

37

More

Age

33

-19

12

40

37

-34

-35

F

482
%

71
%

5

5

278
%

13

66

42
31

-18

30

-37

-25

53

Munster

265
%

285
%

7

6

52
57

Less

Gap

452
%

61

53

The
same

ABC1 C2DE

Region
LeinDublin
ster

59

34

34

-21

-27

52

42

-36

Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year?

Conn/ Outside
Ulster Dublin
177
%

727
%

5

6

59

56

36

38

-32

-32

29
Purchasing Goods And Services – Looking
Forward x Region
Expect to purchase …
Balance
+/-

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
-55
-60
-65
-70

2012

2013

-21
-31
-41

-46
-45
-50

Sep 12

Nov 12

-34

-32

-42

Dublin
Outside Dublin

-42
-48

Feb-13

Dublin has more
positive
indications of
recovery
compared to
outside Dublin.

-47

Apr-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year?

30
The New Reality of Recession: Discretionary
Income Has Halved in Five Years but
decline appears to have abated
Base: All adults 18+
€90

2013

83.97
77.30

€80

71.38

€70

75.07

66.70
61.29

€60

62.32

54.62 55.17
50.94

50.05

47.23
46.68
47.08
42.91

€50

50.30

€40
€30

Q. About how much would you say you spend each week
on things you buy for yourself including money spent
on clothes, eating out, going for a drink, going to the
cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on?

€20
€10
€0

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

Apr
'11

Jul
'12

Feb
'13

Apr
'13

Jul
'13

Sept
'13

31
Consumer confidence rises but regional divide remains

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Consumer confidence rises but regional divide remains

  • 2. Introduction  This report presents the findings of the latest phase of the Behaviour & Attitudes’ Consumer Confidence Tracker.  Survey results for this phase are based on a sample of 1,001 adults aged 16+, quota controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and region to reflect the profile of the adult population of the Republic of Ireland.  All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face Barometer by trained members of the B&A field force working under ESOMAR guidelines.  Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between 6th and 20th September, 2013. 2
  • 3. About Behaviour & Attitudes  Behaviour and Attitudes is Ireland’s largest and most experienced independently owned research company.  We pride ourselves on having the most experienced director team in Ireland. All projects have a director involved.  Established over 25 years ago, Behaviour and Attitudes provides a full range of market research services, ranging from CAPI, CATI, online and of course qualitative.  Specialist sectors include: Retail & Shopper, Technology & Telecoms, Media, Financial, Political & Social, Polling, Automotive, Healthcare and Public Sector & Utilities.  For more information please visit our website at: www.banda.ie or contact us on +353 1 2057500. 3
  • 5. Summary  In line with other economic indicators such as the recent CSO Residential Property Price Index (year to August 2013) consumer confidence for the coming year has risen significantly. Although still negative, confidence is now at its highest point since we entered the IMF Bailout in 2010. Thus the momentum for recovery appears to be picking up pace. If we also factor in the recent ESRI 2014 growth forecasts the picture is one of increased positivity.  However, a two-paced recovery in sentiment is evident. While both Dublin and outside Dublin are displaying more positive sentiment toward the economy, Dubliners are significantly more positive, and the gap regionally is widening.  The divisions in our society are also evident with the middle-upper class (ABC1) and the farming sector (F) significantly more positive in outlook compared to the blue collar (C2DE) sector.  Despite a budget looming, less negativity exists regarding personal finances for the year ahead. However we need to be cognisant of the sharp divide between the white and blue collar sectors. Also those over 35 years of age are more negative regarding their income next year. Note this cohort has more responsibility and are more conservative in outlook. 5
  • 6. Summary  Our discretionary income measure is also indicating a stablisation after five years of decline. However, note we are still at 2001 levels.  We are also witnessing a recovery or at least a levelling off in the perceived ability to save. Again the Dublin region is less negative compared to those outside Dublin across 2013.  Overall any growth in personal financial perceptions is finely balanced. We must remember that the Irish consumer is sensitive, as is the Irish economy, to external reports and trends. However consumers, especially those in Dublin, have a more positive outlook towards 2014. It will be important to track and understand how the various cohorts of our society emerge from these ‘dark times’ as we are witnessing societal divisions. 6
  • 7. Summary  The table below summarises the net scores for each element of the September survey, alongside those from previous waves since 2010. Pre 2008 Historic Low 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net Scores Net Scores Net Scores Net Scores Date Net Score Date Score Mar July Nov Jan April July Nov Mar May Sept Nov Feb Apr July Sept % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Economy - looking back a year Nov '02 -62 -81 -50 -82 -86 -72 -59 -69 -64 -56 -57 -62 -51 -53 -46 -27 Economy - looking forward one year Nov '02 -63 -54 -20 -74 -70 -58 -45 -64 -52 -44 -50 -60 -39 -44 -36 -18 Personal income looking back a year Nov '02 -40 -65 -43 -67 -72 -64 -50 -59 -61 -56 -52 -60 -52 -55 -47 -38 Personal income looking forward a year Nov '02 -20 -54 -33 -65 -69 -55 -43 -57 -50 -49 -52 -52 -48 -54 -47 -34 Personal assets looking forward one year Jan'02 -2 -49 -26 -55 -50 -44 -31 -41 -39 -28 -31 -33 -21 -29 -20 -10 Purchasing intentions the year ahead Nov '02 -24 -51 -36 -56 -67 -55 -37 -51 -46 -40 -44 -48 -43 -43 -40 -29 Savings - the year ahead Nov '02 -35 -53 -37 -54 -60 -54 -39 -50 -51 -42 -45 -52 -44 -48 -44 -31 Although still negative, our confidence in the economy for the coming year is at its highest point since we entered the IMF Bailout in 2010. And for the first time over the last 4 years, more positive purchasing intentions have emerged. The value of personal assets and income are also showing positive movement for the year ahead. 7
  • 8. Economy – Looking Back COUNTRY IS NOW … LONG TERM 2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Better off 13% 6% 2% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 23% 29% 31% 22% Same July Nov 17% 27% 19% 27% Mar May Sept 2013 Nov 6% 8% 8% 5% 24% 29% 28% 28% Feb April July 9% 9% 10% 31% 28% 34% Sept 18% 35% 38% 42% 45% 50% 46% 91% 70% 66% Worse off Apr 2% 5% 7% 6% 10% 18% 19% 23% 27% Jan 2012 88% 77% 76% 76% 66% 66% 75% 53% 35% 70% 67% 62% 64% 60% 62% 55% 45% 26% 23% 28% Gap -40 -59 -13 +3 +8 -6 -64 -89 -71 -71 -59 -86 -72 -59 -69 -64 -56 -57 -62 -51 -53 -46 -27 Negativity related to our current economic situation continues to reduce and is at its lowest point since the recession began. The momentum for recovery appears to be picking up pace. Q.1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year? 8
  • 9. The Future: Psychologically, we may be ready to move on in 2014 Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report Balance +/10 Dublin -4 Outside -23 0 -10 Looking Forward -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -18 Looking Back -20 -42 -44 -45 -41 -56 -58 -54 -65 -66 -67 -65 -69 -55 -74 -76 -69 -80 -73 -90 -77 -79 -93 -100 -50 -74 -70 -86 -81 -82 -50 -56 -57 -59 -69 -36 -64 -27 -44 -60 -64 -72 -91 -88 -52 -58 -39 -51 -53 -46 -62 -86 Jan Mar July Sept Oct Dec Mar May Sept Nov Mar July Nov Jan Apr July Nov Mar May Sept Nov Feb Apr July Sept 2008 Initial shock!  But widespread belief that: 2009 2010 Despair! (IMF Bailout)  Things would return to ‘normal’  Spending habits and behaviour changing for good  Spending reined in – but not in any planned or strategic manner  Value sought everywhere  This was a ‘speedbump’ 2011 Readjustment  People adjusting to ‘new reality’  Less focus on (or interest in) doom and gloom 2012 2013 Movement towards positivity  A significant uplift in the consumer mood vs pre budget last year.  However a Dublin vs outside Dublin recovery is evident. Q.1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year? Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year? 9
  • 10. Economy – Looking Forward Country will be … LONG TERM 2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Better off 13% 9% 8% 20% 25% 26% 6% 19% 12% 9% 9% 6% Apr 8% July 12% 18% 20% 25% 24% 32% Jan 27% Nov 8% Mar May Sept 30% 31% 2013 Nov 9% 11% 11% 6% 20% 25% 30% 2012 43% April July Sept 14% 12% 14% 20% 28% 33% 28% 32% 38% Same Feb 33% 36% 43% 47% 48% 48% 67% 59% 76% 74% 61% 67% 61% 49% Worse off Gap 37% 27% 26% -36 -50 -17 -2 72% 66% 57% 61% 55% 61% 66% 53% 55% 50% 37% 34% = -15 -59 -68 -49 -58 -52 -70 -58 -45 -64 -52 -44 -50 -60 -39 -44 -36 -18 Perceptions related to the future of the Irish economy are at their highest level since 2007. While still in the negative, belief in the future of the Irish economy is improving. Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year? 10
  • 11. Balance Of Opinion - Economy Long Term Balance +/- 10 3 8 0 -13 -10 -30 Looking Back -6 Looking Forward -50 -40 -49 -50 -60 -59 -59 -68 -58 -58 -70 -71 -71 -90 -89 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEARLY AVERAGES -44 -45 -52 -59 -64 -80 -100 -18 -15 -36 -40 -70 -2 0 -17 -20 Short Term -52 -39 -50 -60 -64 -59 -72 -64 -69 -56 -57 -51 -62 -36 -44 -27 -46 -55 -86 Jan Apr July 2011 Nov Mar May Sept 2012 Nov Feb Apr July Sept 2013 When viewed longitudinally a pattern of consistent improvement has been noted over the past two years. 11
  • 12. Economy – Looking Forward x Demographics Country will be … Total SEPTEMBER 2013 Gender Age Male Better off Same Worse off Gap Female 1005 485 520 352 359 294 452 % Base: % % % % % % 20 43 21 43 18 44 37 36 38 -18 -15 -20 18-34 35-54 Social Class 22 43 35 -14 55+ 19 18 42 45 Dublin Leinster Munster 482 71 278 265 285 177 727 % % % % % % % 16 17 47 44 37 40 -21 -23 15 -20 38 -20 25 27 20 14 42 42 43 44 39 48 42 44 31 -5 Any Conn/ Outside Ulster Dublin F ABC1 C2DE 25 Region 27 -29 -2 31 -4 37 -17 44 -29 A socio-economic and regional divide in terms of recovery. Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year? 12
  • 13. Economy – Looking Forward Trended x Region Base: All adults 18+ Balance +/- 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 2012 2013 -4 The gap is widening indicating a two tier recovery. -23 -38 -44 -42 Dublin -32 -48 -30 -39 Outside Dublin -60 -52 Sep 12 -61 Nov 12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Q.1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year? 13
  • 14. Personal Finances – Looking Back Now feel … LONG TERM 2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Better off 15% 9% 11% 21% 2% 5% 5% 25% 26% 24% 3% Apr 5% July Nov Mar 5% 5% 31% 7% 29% 2013 May Sept Nov Feb April July 5% 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 26% 33% 30% 33% 36% 34% 32% 35% 36% 33% 9% 40% 45% 46% 45% Sept 21% 32% Same 4% Jan 2012 47% 47% 51% 52% 56% 75% 65% 62% 66% 62% Worse off 38% 69% 57% 64% 66% 61% 59% 64% 58% 61% 44% 44% 53% 47% 32% 24% 22% 20% Gap -23 -34 -11 +1 +4 +4 -35 -63 -58 -61 -57 -72 -64 -50 -59 -61 -56 -52 -60 -52 -55 -47 -38 Perceptions of personal finances are still negative. However, the degree of negativity is reducing with the scores now at 2008 level. Q.3 Do you feel better off financially, worse off financially or about the same compared to last year? 14
  • 15. Personal Finances – Looking Back x demographics Now feel … Total SEPTEMBER 2013 Age Male Female Base: Gender 18-34 35-54 Social Class Region 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster Any Mun- Conn/ Outside ster Ulster Dublin 1005 485 520 352 359 294 452 482 71 278 265 285 177 727 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Better off 9 10 7 Same 45 44 46 Worse off 47 46 47 Gap -38 -36 -40 13 7 41 45 43 -30 52 -44 5 50 10 8 7 40 48 45 42 -40 -32 57 52 36 -44 -29 10 11 45 45 46 44 -36 -33 Q.3 Do you feel better off financially, worse off financially or about the same compared to last year? 7 6 8 43 47 45 50 47 47 -43 -41 -39 15
  • 16. Personal Finances - Looking Back x Region Base: All adults 18+ Balance +/- 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 2012 2013 -42 -46 -50 Sep 12 -61 Nov 12 Dublin Outside Dublin -50 -55 -56 -36 -39 -49 -56 -57 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Q.3 Do you feel better off financially, worse off financially or about the same compared to last year? 16
  • 17. Personal Finances – Looking Forward Expect it to be … LONG TERM 2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5% 13% Higher 22% 22% 25% 25% 7% 7% 7% 30% 28% Jan Apr 5% July 8% 2012 Nov 9% 7% Mar 8% May Sept 7% 7% 2013 Nov 7% Feb 7% April July 6% Sept 6% 10% 20% 30% 35% 29% 28% 31% 34% 39% 35% 37% 34% 34% 38% 34% 41% 46% The same 52% 54% 54% 58% 58% 58% 59% 74% 64% Lower Gap 57% 63% 59% 64% 63% 52% 58% 56% 59% 59% 55% 60% 53% 44% 34% 24% 27% -2 -8 17% 13% 12% 13% +8 +16 +18 +15 -21 -59 -50 -56 -51 -69 -55 -43 -57 -50 -49 -52 -52 -48 -54 -47 -34 Despite a budget looming, less negativity exists regarding personal finances for the year ahead. Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months? 17
  • 18. Personal Finances – Looking Forward x Demographics Expect it to be … Total SEPTEMBER 2013 Gender Age Social Class Region Lein- Mun- Conn/ Outside ster ster Ulster Dublin Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin 1005 485 520 352 359 294 452 482 71 278 265 285 177 727 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Higher 10 12 12 9 8 10 The same 46 45 Lower 44 43 46 -34 -31 -37 Base: Gap 8 46 9 5 40 14 49 49 48 50 37 -23 41 -41 46 -41 39 -27 41 59 50 49 33 -41 -26 -39 12 8 45 49 44 -32 11 10 49 47 43 40 43 -35 -29 -33 18-34s and the middle classes are more positive about their finances as they move forward. The blue collar sector are still most concerned. Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months? 18
  • 19. Personal Finances - Looking Forward x Region Base: All adults 18+ Balance +/- 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 2012 2013 -33 -43 -55 -45 -55 -54 Sep 12 Nov 12 Q.5 -54 Feb-13 -44 Dublin -39 Outside Dublin -48 -56 Apr-13 -53 Jul-13 Sep-13 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months? 19
  • 20. Balance Of Opinion - Personal Finances Long Term Balance +/- 16 18 15 15 5 -2 -8 -15 -35 -45 -55 -65 -75 Looking Back 8 -5 -25 Short Term Looking Forward 1 -11 4 4 -21 -34 -23 -34 -43 -35 -50 -59 -56 -51 -57 -58 -61 -63 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEARLY AVERAGES -55 -50 -69 -72 Jan -59 -61 -64 Apr -57 -50-49 -52 July 2011 Nov Mar -56 May -52 -52 -47 -38 -47 -48 -54 -52 -55 -59 Sept Nov Feb 2012 Apr July Sept 2013 Gains being made over time. However we are still in negative territory. 20
  • 21. Savings – Looking Forward Expect to save … More LONG TERM 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 13% 11% 17% 18% 18% 18% 10% 6% 32% The 51% same 7% 7% 6% 27% 37% 35% 39% Apr 7% 63% -23 -28 -8 -5 Mar 32% 7% 6% 36% 9% 36% May Sept 9% Nov 6% 40% 43% 5% Feb April July 7% 38% 42% 7% Sept 5% 10% 38% 45% 59% 36% 39% 19% Nov 2013 49% 66% 55% 57% 54% 44% 25% 23% July 2012 43% 62% Gap 7% Jan 46% 50% 58% 59% Less 2011 61% 57% 48% 57% 51% 51% 57% 51% 55% 50% 41% 23% -1 -5 -34 -56 -48 -50 -48 -60 -54 -39 -50 -51 -42 -45 -52 -44 -48 -44 -31 A stabilisation or at least a recovery in the ability to save (with the more positive economic sentiment) is evident. Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months? 21
  • 22. Savings – Looking Forward Expect to save … SEPTEMBER 2013 Total Gender Male Female 1005 % 485 % 520 % More 10 11 10 The same 49 50 48 41 39 42 -30 -29 -32 Age Base: Less Gap 18-34 35-54 352 % 17 359 % 8 50 Social Class 55+ ABC1 C2DE F 294 % 452 % 482 % 71 % 4 53 45 37 -20 14 8 46 44 -34 -40 15 34 -37 Mun- Conn/ Outside ster Ulster Dublin 265 % 285 % 177 % 7 9 8 8 53 51 39 41 -30 -33 43 56 45 45 -21 278 % 3 52 42 Region LeinDublin ster 57 48 40 39 35 -37 -24 -28 -39 Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months? 727 % 22
  • 23. Savings – Looking Forward x Region Balance +/- 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 2012 2013 -29 -24 -34 -46 -50 Sep 12 -35 Dublin -33 -43 -48 -47 More positivity in Dublin over the last 3 waves. -53 -54 Nov 12 Outside Dublin Feb-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months? 23
  • 24. Personal Assets– Looking Forward Expect them to be … LONG TERM 2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Higher 10% 19% 22% 28% 36% 38% 2% 4% 5% 7% Jan 2% Apr July 2012 Nov 5% 7% 7% Mar May Sept 2013 Nov Feb 7% 6% 9% 8% April July Sept 9% 8% 11% 12% 28% 42% 43% 47% 46% 45% 54% 55% 45% 54% 51% 56% 55% 55% 62% 56% 59% 66% No 68% 65% change 64% 65% 59% 57% 55% 35% Lower Gap 13% 13% 52% 47% 47% 38% 49% 48% 38% 40% 36% 38% 39% 30% 37% 31% 22% 7% 5% 5% 8% +6 +9 +21 +31 +33 +20 -25 -53 -43 -41 -31 -50 -44 -31 -41 -39 -28 -31 -33 -21 -29 -20 -10 The fieldwork was conducted prior to recent publicity surrounding increased housing prices in Dublin. The figures at this point in time indicate belief in some asset value recovery. Q.6 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year? 24
  • 25. Personal Assets– Looking Forward Expect them to be … SEPTEMBER 2013 Total Gender Male Female Age 18-34 35-54 Social Class 55+ ABC1 C2DE Region F Dublin Leinster Munster Conn/ Outside Ulster Dublin Base: 1005 485 520 352 359 294 452 482 71 278 265 285 177 727 Higher % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 12 14 10 11 9 72 68 No change Lower Gap 66 66 22 20 -11 -6 Q.6 9 66 25 -16 10 14 11 70 62 66 25 22 19 -11 -11 -4 20 -10 15 9 66 65 25 -17 13 16 68 59 19 -6 25 -9 22 17 -7 -11 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year? 64 27 -18 10 68 21 -11 25
  • 26. Personal Assets– Looking Forward x Region Expect them to be … Balance +/- 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 2012 2013 -9 -12 -18 -25 -21 -29 -23 -22 -34 Sep 12 Q.6 Dublin Outside Dublin -32 -33 Nov 12 -11 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year? 26
  • 27. Purchasing Goods And Services – Looking Forward Expect to purchase 2002 … More LONG TERM 2011 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 16% 15% 18% 20% 21% 20% 10% 3% 5% 4% 5% Jan 2% Apr 5% 42% 39% 34% Mar 5% 44% 50% May Sept 5% 5% Nov 5% Feb 6% April July 7% Sept 6% 8% 50% 46% 42% 46% 44% 49% 55% 58% 58% 64% 64% 65% 65% 69% 66% 52% 56% 60% 50% 39% Gap 4% 41% 45% 50% Less 7% Nov 2013 29% 31% The same July 2012 55% 44% 51% 45% 49% 53% 49% 49% 45% 37% 26% 27% 18% 16% 14% 15% -10 -12 = +4 +7 +5 -29 -63 -47 -52 -45 -67 -55 -37 -51 -46 -40 -44 -48 -43 -43 -40 -29 A breakthrough in perceptions of purchasing next year (2008 levels). Note we are still in negative territory, but a significant drop in negativity has occurred. Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year? 27
  • 28. Balance Of Opinion – The Year Ahead Expectations in regard to assets value, purchases, and savings Long Term Balance +/40 31 30 10 0 -10 6 9 -10 -12 -30 -40 -50 -60 -23 -28 Purchase 20 4 7 Savings 5 -8 -12 -20 Assets Value 33 21 20 Short Term -5 -1 -10 -5 -20 -21 -25 -29 -34 -31 -43 -53 -41 -44 -45 -50 -48 -50 -48 -47 -60 -52 -63 -56 -70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEARLY AVERAGES -28 -31 -54 -41 -39 -37 -39 -50 -40 -46 -42 -55 -51 -51 Jul Mar -29 -31 -33 -44 -48 -45 -52 -43 -43 -29 -40 -31 -44 -48 -44 -67 Jan Apr 2011 Nov May Sept Nov 2012 Feb Apr July Sept 2013 Improvements are noted and momentum is slowly improving. However, any further imposition that directly affects real incomes of consumers will impact this area negatively (ie the Budget!). Growth in personal financial situations is now finely balanced. 28
  • 29. Purchasing Goods And Services – Looking Forward Expect to purchase … Total SEPTEMBER 2013 Gender Male Base: 1005 % Female 485 % 520 % 8 7 9 55 58 35 39 -29 -27 -30 18-34 35-54 352 % 359 % Social Class 55+ 294 % 14 6 2 53 53 37 More Age 33 -19 12 40 37 -34 -35 F 482 % 71 % 5 5 278 % 13 66 42 31 -18 30 -37 -25 53 Munster 265 % 285 % 7 6 52 57 Less Gap 452 % 61 53 The same ABC1 C2DE Region LeinDublin ster 59 34 34 -21 -27 52 42 -36 Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year? Conn/ Outside Ulster Dublin 177 % 727 % 5 6 59 56 36 38 -32 -32 29
  • 30. Purchasing Goods And Services – Looking Forward x Region Expect to purchase … Balance +/- 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 2012 2013 -21 -31 -41 -46 -45 -50 Sep 12 Nov 12 -34 -32 -42 Dublin Outside Dublin -42 -48 Feb-13 Dublin has more positive indications of recovery compared to outside Dublin. -47 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year? 30
  • 31. The New Reality of Recession: Discretionary Income Has Halved in Five Years but decline appears to have abated Base: All adults 18+ €90 2013 83.97 77.30 €80 71.38 €70 75.07 66.70 61.29 €60 62.32 54.62 55.17 50.94 50.05 47.23 46.68 47.08 42.91 €50 50.30 €40 €30 Q. About how much would you say you spend each week on things you buy for yourself including money spent on clothes, eating out, going for a drink, going to the cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on? €20 €10 €0 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Apr '11 Jul '12 Feb '13 Apr '13 Jul '13 Sept '13 31