1. The document discusses rural transformation and implications for agricultural and rural development. It outlines key topics like transformation and transitions, social differences, and policy implications. 2. Rural areas experience economic growth and a relative decline in agriculture as countries develop. This leads to urbanization as people move to cities. The main challenge for agriculture is to raise productivity during this transition. 3. There is consensus around the importance of rural public goods like infrastructure, education, and research to support development, as well as addressing market failures in rural areas through potential state interventions or institutional innovations.

1. 1
Rural
Transformation &
Implications for
Agricultural & Rural
Development

2. Outline
Transformation & Transitions
Social Differences
Policy implications
Principles, perspectives … & ..
Asia

3. Transformation & Rural Transition
With economic
growth,
relative decline
of agriculture

4. Urbanisation

5. Main challenge for agriculture in transition
Raise
Productivity

6. Different paths, diuffernt transitions
England
France
Thailand

7. Asian success: Rising Rural Wages in Asia
Vietnam
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Red River delta North East
North West North Central Coast
South Central Coast Central Highlands
South East Mekong River delta

8. Despite Asian success, much gloom
Theory
Agriculture: limited scope
for productivity gains, few
links, low & falling prices
Manufacturing =
Innovation
Agglomeration
economies in urban
areas
Empirical
Africa’s limited
transformation
Asian examples
unrepeatable??

9. SOCIAL
DIFFERENCES

10. 0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
MaliTominian
MaliDiéma
MaliKoutiala
MaliMacina
SenegalCasamance
SenegalMekhé1
SenegalNioro
SenegalHautDelta
SenegalMekhé2
SenegalBasDelta
Madagascar…
MadagascarAlaotra1
Madagascar…
MadagascarItasy
Madagascar…
MadagascarAlaotra2
KenyaBungoma
KenyaNyando
KenyaNakuruNorth
MoroccoChaouia
MoroccoSaïss
MoroccoSouss
NicaraguaMuyMuy
NicaraguaTerrabona
NicaraguaLaLibertad
NicaraguaElViejo
NicaraguaElCuà
MexicoSierraSM.
MexicoTierrasBajas
GiniCoefficient,incomesbyhousehold

11. Dorward et al: SOAS/Wye
Step Up: Potential FT
commercial SF
Step Out: diversified
RNFE
Hang In: Marginal
SF

12. Latin America [RIMISP]

13. Perspective: Latin America: 12 Cs
3%
9%
20%
43%
25%
Commercial Farms
Class A family farms
Class B family farms
Class C family farms
Rural landless

14. Policy implications
& conclusions

15. No secrets: consensus on basics (1)
Rural Investment Climate
• Doesn’t have to be perfect! [Rodrik]

16. Consensus on basics (2)
• Bullet slide 22ptVerdana
16
Rural Public Goods
• Roads, power, irrigation, etc.
• Education, Health, Water
• Research & Extension

17. Debate: Failings in rural (factor)
markets: solutions?
State intervention?
e.g. Fert Sub
Institutional
Innovation e.g.
Contracts, Co-ops,
etc.
17
Matters most for B, C smallholders & women

18. Factor markets matter
for benign transitions
Land transfers
Capital movements

19. Social Protection for
SF on low incomes
Challenge of
graduation:
linking from SP
to Productive
Investments

20. Priorities for development partners?
Encourage Basics: evidence strong
Fund Rural Public Goods
Market Failures: fund trials [challenge funds?] & learning
Pilot Graduation from SP

21. Concluding reflection

22. Beware gloom: check [SE] Asia
Henley & van Donge 2012
Sound macro-economy: avoid inflation > 20%
Economic freedom for peasants & small entrepreneurs
Pro-poor, pro-rural public spending: >20% budget
No need for industrial policy!
Patience: T & T takes 30 years +