Technology Timeline 2010

Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International 1
UNCLASSIFIED -- OPEN SOURCE ONLY
Dr. Marvin J. Cetron, Owen Davies, and Frank Sowa,
Prepared for Forecasting International, Falls Church, VA
Mad Scientists 2010 Future Technologies Seminar
Marriott at City Center, Newport News, VA
January 20, 2010
Forecasting International
1/20/2010

INTRODUCTION 
This slide show was adapted from an article by Marvin Cetron
appearing in the Dec. 09 issue of Pro Pilot Magazine
This is a timeline of future technology, seeking changes in our
professional and personal lives. Its focus is on aerospace, avionics,
and related fields.
The timeline originated with futurist Ian Pearson, and British
Telecom executive Ian Neild in 1991. Pearson updated it every two
years until 2005. In 2008, Forecasting International took up the
updating task and continues to regularly, since then.
The current timeline is the fruit of consultation with nearly three
dozen authorities including: aviation leaders, strategic forecasters,
intelligence and military personnel, plus physicians and biomedical
researchers.
Sixty percent of this timeline is
revised or new.
1/20/2010

INTRODUCTION 
CONTINUED …
TIMELINE TARGET DATES
Target dates for the timeline keeps with our original policy.
Most dates assume “that an item will be readily available to early adopters
-- but not yet a commodity item.”
WILD CARDS
“Wild Cards” events are distributed randomly throughout the timeline. Most
“wild cards” were contributed by John Peterson of The Arlington Institute.
(Credit goes to Sergei Sikorsky for suggesting that alien civilizations may
find ways to travel faster than light.)
It should NOT be assumed that wild cards will
necessarily occur within the 5-year block where they are
found!
WILD
CARDS
1/20/2010

TIMELINE RESULTS 
Panelists gave fairly consistent timeline estimates of when a new
technology could be expected
Occasionally, one pointed out that it ‘already existed’ -- but timeline
entries are ‘available produced products’ -- NOT ‘laboratory
demonstrations.’
In most cases, over the first 25 years, the spread among target
dates was limited to a few years -- no more than a decade.
TRANSFORMATIONAL “INTERPLAY”
By looking at the Timeline to see how major events mentioned will interplay allows
you to think about the future. Forecasters suggested that “tele-everything” will
replace most physical travel by 2040. Yet, the same group also suggested that
hydrogen-fueled executive jets with a fully automated 4D airspace system will be
available in 2050, and 200-plus-passenger Mach 2 airliners will be available in 2075.
Transformational “interplay” of this kind offers valuable insights.
1/20/2010

CONCLUSIONS 
• Navigating the future requires frequent course
corrections -- like economics, strategic management,
and politics.
• Other factors hasten or delay the promises of
technology and innovation.
• What matters: is that we ‘plan’ for the future and manage
our means to get there, rather than letting it come upon
us unaware!
1/20/2010

Technology Timeline 
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
From: Forecasting International
2010-2014
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Artificial Intelligence
and life
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Biotechnology:
Health / medicine
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Behavior alarms based on
human mistake recognition 2010
Software trained rather than
written 2012
AI chatbots indistinguishable
from people 2014
All patients tagged in
hospitals 2010
Designer babies born
outside U.S. 2012
Stem-cells repair heart muscle
outside U.S. 2013
Sequencing human genome
costs $1,000 USD 2013
Vaccine for prostrate
cancer virus 2014
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
1/20/2010

Business / Education
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Computing Power
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Environment /
Resources
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Virtual Reality for teaching science,
art, history, etc. 2012
3D Video Conferencing 2014
Petaflop Computer 2012
Optical Neurocomputers 2013
Supercomputers fast as
human brain (20 petaflops) 2014
Biochemical storage of solar
energy 2012
Multilayer-solar-cells with
efficiency > 50% 2014
Laser Fusion - net energy
Gain 2016
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
From: Forecasting International CONTINUED
2010-2014
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Rapid Climate
change
produces mini-
ice age
1/20/2010

Home / Leisure
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Microchips in packaging
to control cooking 2011
Bore filter screens dullards
out digital communications 2012
Smart paint containing
computer chips 2013
Teens live in virtual worlds 2014
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2010-2014
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
1/20/2010

Machine /
Human Interface
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Voice control household
appliances and objects 2011
Augmented Reality 2012
Computer-biological sensory
organs linked 2012
Human-quality
Voice Synthesis 2012
Touch-sensitive displays on
flexible polymers for wearables
and reduced-weight portable
electronics 2013
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2010-2014
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
1/20/2010

Robotics
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Security / Law
/ War
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Space
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Self-monitoring systems use smart
materials, sensors 2013
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2010-2014
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Electronic communications
disrupted by electromagnetic
pulse 2011
VR used in courtrooms for
evidence presentation 2013
Biometric-scanning replaces
ID cards 2014
Earth-like planet discovered 2012
1/20/2010

Travel /
Transportation
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Enhanced flight vision for
small GA aircraft 2012
Synthetic vision allows GA
pilots to see through clouds 2013
Combat drones become
“intelligent” for optimal
targeting 2014
FAA approves unrestricted flights
of UAV’s in US airspace 2014
Hybrid cars carry 10% of
American drivers 2014
More optimized airframe / power
plant / aircraft system
integration 2014
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2010-2014
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
1/20/2010

Artificial Intelligence
and life
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Biotechnology:
Health / medicine
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
25% of TV personalities are
synthetic 2015
Artificial Heart (lab-cultured, 100%
synthetic) 2015
Medical treatment based on
patient’s individual DNA 2015
Alzheimer’s Treatment based on
protein responsible for
“tangles” 2016
Cure for osteoarthritis 2016
Prostrate Cancer Vaccine 2016
(continued next page)
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2015-2019
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
1/20/2010

Biotechnology:
Health / medicine
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Computing Power
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
(Continued from last page)
Artificial lungs, kidneys 2017
Designer babies born clandestinely
in U.S. 2018 FDA approves
stem cell use to repair damaged
hearts 2018 Thought-
controlled bionic exoskeleton lets
disabled
walk 2018
Quantum Computer 2015
AI imitates thinking process of
human brain 2018
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2015-2019
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
1/20/2010

Environment /
Resources
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Home / Leisure
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Carbon dioxide fixation
technologies for environmental
protection / remediation 2015
Wind power provides energy
50% Denmark; 30% Germany;
10% United States 2015
Bacteria used to clean oil spills (by
hobbyist gene-splicer) 2016
Synthetic non-petroleum aviation
fuel (JP8) reaches commercial
market 2016
Wave power provides energy
8% United Kingdom; 3% rest of
world 2019
Homes, retail, offices, hospitality,
nightclub facilities decorated with
virtual reality scenes 2015
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2015-2019
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
1/20/2010

Machine / Human
Interface
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Robotics
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Thought-recognition used to
control robots / UAV’s 2015
Global sensor grid 2018
Self-diagnostic, self-repairing,
robots 2015
Robots for all jobs -- in services,
homes, and hospitals 2018
Holographic TV 2018
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2015-2019
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
1/20/2010

Space
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Travel /
Transportation
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
“James Webb” next-generation
space telescope orbited 2015
Solar sail weather monitoring
system 2015
Privatized orbital flight by space
tourists 2017
Small aircraft carry 30% of
passenger traffic 2015
Fuel-cell cars 2015
Assisted-lane-keeping systems
for trucks, buses 2016
Fuel cells for emergency power
certified to replace Ram Air Turbine
2016
Intelligent cars 2016
(continued next page)
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2015-2019
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Turning salt
water into fresh
water becomes
economical.
1/20/2010

Travel /
Transportation
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Wearable / Personal
Technology
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Spectacles that translate signs,
labels 2015
Contact lenses replace VR goggles,
monocles 2019
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2015-2019
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Ceramic turbine blades used to
raise engine operating temps for
greater efficiencies 2017
Supersonic Bizjets 2018
Aircraft 20% more efficient than
in 2009 2019
Unducted-fan engines entering
use 2019
1/20/2010

Artificial Intelligence /
Life
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Biotechnology /
Health / Medicine
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Business /
Education
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Machine knowledge exceeds
Human knowledge 2020
Artificial Insects - Small animals
with artificial brains 2020
Artificial Liver 2020
Nanobots in toothpaste attack
plaque 2020
Fully-functional artificial
eyes 2020
Regenerative artificial limbs 2022
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2020-2024
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Learning and traditional education
venues superceded by transparent
interface to smart
computers 2020
1/20/2010

Computing Power
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Environment /
Resources
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Home /
Leisure
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Machine / Human
Interface
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Library of Congress contents
available on a sugar-cube-size chip
device 2020
Desktop and laptop computers as
fast as human brain 2021
Effective prediction of most natural
disasters 2020
Aviation fuel from plants irrigated
with seawater 2021
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2020-2024
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
3D color “printers” in home 2021
Experience recording technology
deployed 2023
Thought recognition for everday
input 2020
Laws guarantee
thought-privacy 2021
1/20/2010

Robotics
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Security / Law /
War
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Space
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Realistic nanotech Toy
Soldier 2022
“Stealth” made obsolete by release
of global sensor 2020
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2020-2024
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Anti-matter production and storage
2021
Single-stage-to-orbit vehicle 2022
Space tugs take satellites to
high-orbits 2022
1/20/2010

Travel /
Transportation
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Wearable / Personal
Technology
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Computer-enhanced
dreaming 2020
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2020-2024
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Driverless semi-truck convoys
using electronic towbar 2020
Aircraft 75% more efficient 2023
Automated small-package delivery
by robot and unmanned
vehicle 2024
Cockpit windows eliminated to
improve aerodynamics and fuel
efficiencies 2024
Flying “HUMVEE” (low-ground) for
the military 2024
Significant IT attack
brings down a major
national economy
sends global markets
to Depression
1/20/2010

Life
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Biotechnology / Health
Medicine
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Business / Education
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Environment /
Resources
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Living genetically-engineered,
toy / pet developed 2025
Life extension milestone reached at
one year per year 2025
Infectious disease eliminated from
developed world 2028
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2025-2029
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Molecular manufacturing 2025
Individual lifelong education
replaces public education 2025
Artificial precipitation induction
and control 2025
1/20/2010

Machine / Human
Interface
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Security / Law / War
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Space
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Travel /
Transportation
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Full direct brain link 2025
Emotion control chips for criminals
2025
Hypersonic UAV bomber with
global range 2026
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2025-2029
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Mars sample returned 2025
Space Hotel accommodates 350
guests 2025
Tele-travel 3DVR 2025
3D airspace system frees aircraft
from ground-based ATC 2025
FAA approves autonomous UAV
airliners 2026
Economically-practical supersonic
airliners 2029
Bio/nano
experiment gets
out-of-control
with subsequent
regional or global
impact
1/20/2010

Life
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Biotechnology / Health /
Medicine
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Computing Power
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Environment /
Resources
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Robotics
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Robots physically / mentally
superior to humans 2032
108 improvement in computing
using nano/atomic 2030
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2030-2039
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Zero-point energy
is engineered,
making all other
energy obsolete
Artificial brain 2030
Renewable energy replaces fossil
carbon fuels 2030
Commercial nuclear fusion 2039
Robots completely replace human
workforce 2030
Cyborgs and Androids in
autonomous production 2032
Computers exceed
human capabilities
-- take over and
humans work for
them
1/20/2010

Travel /
Transportation
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Wearable / Personal
Technology
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
50-100-passenger Hypersonic
Transport (HST) Mach 5.5 2035
Fully-automated self-piloted “hop-
in-and-go personal aircraft 2039
Dream-linked technology built for
night-time networking 2030
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2030-2039
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Zero-point energy
is engineered,
making all other
energy obsolete
Asteroid strike or
near-miss of
Earth reorganizes
life on planet
1/20/2010

Security / Law / War
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Space
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Asteroid diversion technology used
as a weapon 2040
Moon base expands to size of a
small village 2040
First Manned mission
to Mars 2040
Europa Ice digger exploration
vehicle 2042
Titan balloon explorer 2042
Space solar-power station 2050
Use of human hibernation in space
travel 2052
Star exploration visits 2069
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2040 and beyond
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Humans succeed
in transplanting
brain from one
human to
another.
1/20/2010

Travel /
Transportation
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Tele-everything simulates
realistically real-world experiences
replacing most physical travel
2040
Hydrogen-fueled (cryoplanes)
executive jets 2041
4D airspace system ensures
automatic separation, eliminates
last requirement for ground-based
ATC 2050
200-plus passenger SST Mach 2-
plus speed and low sonic boom
approved for overland flight 2075
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– 
2040 and beyond
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Indicates
“Wild
Card!”
Alien civilizations
found that travel
faster than light.
1/20/2010

List of Main Contributors 
This slide show was adapted from an article appearing in
the Dec. 09 issue of Pro Pilot Magazine
Ralph Aceti, (Dassault)
Linden Blue (General Atomic)
Dennis Bushnell, (NASA Langley Research Center)
Joseph Coates, (Consulting Futurist)
Bruce Crew, (Williams International)
Paul Del-Herrera, (Universal Avionics)
Ken Elliott, (Jetcraft)
Scott Erickson, (Pressley Ridge)
Louis Friedman, (The Planetary Society)
William Halal, (George Washington University & Techcast)
David Harris, (Insignis Strategic Research)
James Hoblyn, (Bombardier Customer Services)
Joe Lombardo, (Gulfstream)
David Low, (Oxford Analytica)
Ian Neild, (British Telecom)
Michael Paulson, (Supersonic Aircraft, Inc.)
In addition, five highly placed members of the U.S. defense and intelligence communities contributed to this study, but for
professional reasons must remain anonymous. Two work for DHS, one for a private think-tank, two for DOD.
Ian Pearson, (Futurizon)
Jack Pelton, (Cessna)
John Peterson, (The Arlington Institute)
James Raisbeck, (Raisbeck Engineering)
Bob Rockwood, (Bristol Associates)
Sergei Sikorsky, (Sikorsky Consultant)
Craig Sincock, (Avfuel)
Jack Smith, (Defence R&D Canada)
Leslie Smith, (FAA)
Murray Smith, (Pro Pilot Magazine)
David Pearce Snyder, (Consulting Futurist)
Frank Sowa, (The Xavier Group Ltd.)
Bob Stangarone, (Cessna)
Stephen Steele, (Anne Arundel CC)
Richard Tracy (Aerion)
Patrick Tucker (World Future Society)
Steve Varsano, (The Jet Business)
1/20/2010

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