Westmoreland Chamber TechExpo 2017 Talk May 24th

Copyright© 2017 Frank X. Sowa All Rights Reserved
True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing. — Socrates
Future Trends
How will Artificial Intelligence
and Robotics impact the job
landscape of the future?
2017 through 2060
By Frank X. Sowa
Strategist, Futurist
Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Scientist
1
Presented for: Tech Expo
Westmoreland County Chamber of Commerce
Westmoreland College - Advanced Technology Center
May 24, 2017 10:30 am

Kasparov defeated by
IBMs Deep Blue Smart-AI
computer - 1997
Should we just keep on existing as we always did?
2017 through 2060
Copyright© 2017 Frank X. Sowa All Rights Reserved 2

When do we start challenging
the thinking of the masses?
1983: major employers in region
terminate one-third of all jobs
3

Western PA
has become a hub for the new 21st Century
Economy and Lifestyle

Medical 3D Printing, Surgical Robots
UPMC, Allegheny Health Network, Excela Health
3D Printed heart
3D Printed spinal cord
replacement
AHN Robotic Surgery 3D Printed Hyperelastic Bone Graft

Autonomous - Coal Mining of the 21st Century
began in 2002

Western Pa Additive Manufacturing in
21st Century Construction

GE Brilliant Factories and Advanced Manufacturing
10

FedEx Ground, Amazon, Dick’s, United Parcel
Autonomous warehouses, customer services
Delivery drone launches from roof of UPS Truck
And carries packages to porch, drops off and
returns to mother truck

Luddites 1811-1813 Britain
Attempting to stop Industrial Revolution by destroying
Textile Machines

Product/Service Steps
1. Introduction Phase
Idea - Prototype/Pilot
2.Growth Phase
Sales - ProcessConsistency
3. Maturity Phase
Stable - Profit Reaping
4. Decline Phase
Sell Off - Fold In - End Life
1920-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
20-25 yrs
10-15 yrs
8-10 yrs
4-8 yrs
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2-5 yrs
1-3 yrs
7-14 wks-1 yr
Today there
are no longer $$
Cash Cows to milk
Mainframes
Minis & First PCs
Supercomputers
Internet
Internet and Mobile Smart Phones
Internet and Mobile Smart-AI Phones
Product/Service Time to Go Through Life Cycle
Product/Service Life Cycle
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Decline
$$
Cash Cow
Breakeven
High
Start-Up / R&D
Costs
High
Sales
Marketing
Production
Costs
High Profits
Decision
Time
Source: Marvin J. Cetron and Frank X. Sowa
The Velocity is quickening … How to respond?
13
DESIGN TRENDS:

1 Trillion in $100 stacked dollar bills
$100,000 $1 million $1 billion
$1 trillion
1 trillion
Internet Things
TODAY:
9 Billion Cell Phones
7.5 Billion People on
Earth
1 Trillion
Interactive Conversations
Cybersecurity Risks
TODAY’s
ENTIRE
INTERNET
$1B = 1 truckload $1T = 186 truckloads
2023 Internet will have 1 trillion interactive nodes
2023
Entire Internet
2017

Economics based on scarcity NOT abundance

So how are things evolving? … transforming?
1960’s - 70’s
1980’s - 90’s
2000’s - 10’s
2017 - 2023
Industry will be driven by AI advances in IoT
IoT
16
FUTURE TRENDS:

AI-Driven smart cyber-physical systems, using
Cognitive computing of IoT and 4th Industrial
Revolution. 2011 - 2053
CyberAugmentative
Cognitive
Systems
Computer and
automation/
robotics
Mass Production,
Assembly line,
Combustion Engine
Electricity
Mechanization,
Water/Wind Power,
Steam Power,
Fossil Fuels
Passive Passive Passive Active
It’s ALREADY HERE! Are you
engaged?
Source: The Henry Ford
17
FUTURE TRENDS:

This is the BEST ECONOMIC NEWS we’ve
ever seen on this planet — Abundance!

American GDP, 1947-2017
Copyright© 2017 Frank X. Sowa All Rights ReservedCopyright© 2017 Frank X. Sowa All Rights Reserved 19

Economic and Materialistic Abundances in 2017

AI and Robotics will finally free us from the overworked
drudgery and toil of jobs, and even allow for more flexible
work styles and organizational designs.

Today, yesterday’s craftsmen, tinkerers, innovators,
creative-types, laborers are now called “Makers”

23Copyright© 2017 Frank X. Sowa All Rights Reserved
1960’s-70’s Top-Down Mass-Manufacturing
Organizational Style - Career to Gold Watch Retirement

Let’s tell a story …
Walter Reuther,
Leader/organizer, UAW
Henry Ford II,
Chair/CEO Ford
“Hey, Walter, how are you going to
get these machines to pay your
union dues?”
“Hey, Henry, how do you plan to get
them to buy your cars?”
Touring a Ford Plant after automating in the 50’s

Returns to Capital or Corp Profits $$
Henry Ford’s rationale for tooling up with technology …

Returns to Capital versus to Labor in the U.S.
Walter Reuther’s rationale for concern about labor’s
ability for buying new cars …

A tale of two workers
= Ted

A tale of two workers
= Bill

Families in which the head of household or spouse
worked 40 or more hours in the preceding week
Ted
Bill
Comparing the working lives of Ted and Bill

Families in which the head of household or spouse
worked 40 or more hours in the preceding week

Men not making a living

Proportion of all whites ages 30-49 who
self-report being in very happy marriages

Percentage of children living with both biological parents
when the mother was aged 40

White Prisoners

Can Bill find a way
to reestablish more equal
societal norms on a more
even keel with Ted
in the new
21st Century Paradigm?

What we know, even in science, is relative.
Keep thinking different!
Time is relative.

Alan Turing Test
37
?
Artificial General Intelligence
Mobility • Cognitive • Consciousness
Artificial Intelligence refers to any level of
intelligence demonstrated by a computer or
machine. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
describes the ability of a machine to learn on its
own, so as to match the cognitive abilities of a
human being. AGI is an ongoing goal of researchers.
Though there is no universally accepted set of
requirements, a machine that possesses AGI would
be able to pass the Turing test (being mistaken by a
human observer as human), and is also likely to be
able to reason, plan, learn, form abstractions and
concepts, make conscious decisions, communicate
in natural language, solve the kinds of problems
reserved for humans including moral and ethical
subjectivity, and self-perpetuation through self-
monitoring finding a use or others as having
experiential states.
Artificial General Intelligence
AI since the late 1950’s:
All Brute-Force
and in box
approaches

“Introducing the world’s
first supercomputer
for the desktop.
The iMac G4.”
— Steve Jobs, 2004

Today’s Internet
2020 Internet of Things
Neurons in the
human brain
Red circle is ALL of Today’s Internet
Black box is
the backbone of the
Searchable Internet
via World Wide Web
All of what Google has
mapped
Deep Blue Machine Learning
began in 1996 using human brute
force methods …
Around 2008,
Neuroscientists
began to Understand
how brains are wired
neurally by Natural
Selection
Watson Machine Learning
today is based on neural
networks that model the
human brain
39

40
What have we learned in Cognitive Sciences that aids
in understanding Human and Machine Learning?

New theory called “Quantum Superposition” using
molecular graphene or silicon microtubules may
replace neural networks in machine learning by 2025.
This is first non-brute-force beyond-the-box approach!
Will it bring consciousness
to Robots?

Quantum Superposition qubit machine learning coding

hat if you didn’t give people what you “thought” they wanted
Source: The Henry Ford, Dearborn, MI
If Henry Ford had asked people what
they wanted to improve their lifestyles,
they would have said “faster horses” not
“horseless carriages.”
To Succeed today, YOU MUST
Think Different!

What If?
Thank You
for this opportunity
Picture Designed for the launches of SEED.NET (1986 - 19th Commercial
ISP in world) and TEC-Online (1996) of the SMC Business Councils
Contact Frank Sowa at:
412 - 487 - 9422
Or by email: fxsowa@mac.com
Or Twitter: @franksowa
Or LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/franksowa/
LinkedIn XavierGroup Discussions:
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/3078323
44

Westmoreland Chamber TechExpo 2017 Talk May 24th

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