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21st century career trends 11_28_12
1. 21ST CENTURY CAREER TRENDS
November 28th, 2012
Joshua Gaul, M.A.
SUNY Empire State College
2. ABOUT ME
• Office of Integrated Technology – Academic Technology
• CDL Adjunct
• The American Cinema
• 21st Century Careers
• Indiana University of Pennsylvania
• Communications Media
• Adult Education & Communications Media
3. WHAT WE’LL DISCUSS
• Overall Workforce Projections
• By age
• By race/ethnicity
• By level of education
• Replacement vs. Field Expansion
• Highest Projected Growth
• Highest Projected Growth (by level of education)
• Lowest Projected Growth
• Jobs in Decline
• Overall Reactions and Observations
• Questions
14. HIGHEST PROJECTED GROWTH – 29%
OR HIGHER (MASTERS)
• Healthcare Social Workers
• Industrial-Organizational Psychologists
• Marriage-Family Therapists
• Mental Health Counselors
• Occupational Therapists
• Physician Assistants
15. HIGHEST PROJECTED GROWTH – 29%
OR HIGHER (BACHELORS)
• Athletic Trainers
• Biomedical Engineers
• Cost Estimators
• DB Admins
• Geographers
• Health Educators
• Interpreters/Translators
• Market Research Analysts/Marketing Specialists
• Event Planners
• Mental Health Social Workers
• Personal Financial Advisors
• Software Developers
16. HIGHEST PROJECTED GROWTH – 29% OR
HIGHER (ASSOCIATES/POST-SECONDARY
NON-DEGREES)
• Medical Techs
• Sonographers
• Medical Assistants
• HVAC Mechanics
17. LOWEST PROJECTED GROWTH – LESS
THAN 9% INCREASE
• Judges
• Librarians
• Political Scientists
• Art Directors
• Multimedia Artists/Animators
• Career/Technical Education Educators
• Writers/Authors
18. JOBS PROJECTED TO DECLINE
• Reporters/Correspondents
• Air Traffic Controllers
• Desktop Publishers
• Insurance Appraisers (Auto)
19. MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO PROJECTIONS
• Rebuilding/maintaining of nation’s infrastructure
• Recovery from the recession
• Computer/system automation
• Baby boomers aging
• Globalization/decentralization of industry/business
• Attempts to cut down on costs
21. RESOURCES
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook
(http://www.bls.gov/ooh/home.htm)
• Slideshare
(http://www.slideshare.net/joshuagaul/21st-century-career-
trends-112812)
Editor's Notes
Civilian Non-institutional Population – 16 and older; only 10.6% expected growth, as compared to 12.4% from 1999-2000 and 11.9% from 2000-2010Minorities/immigrants expected to constitute larger share of population in 2020Asian and Hispanic will grow 34% and 37%, respectively45-54 age group to shrink 7.6%55 and older population is expected to grow by 29.1%, higher than any other age group
Labor force grows more slowly, becoming older and more diverse
Architecture and engineering increase due to recovery from recession; civil engineers most in demand, as the nation’s infrastructure agesArts and design increase due to higher need for graphic designers; internet advertising influxBusiness and financial operations increase due to a desire for cost control, demanding management analysis and increasing financial regulations, pointing to people with oversight, like accountants and auditorsCommunity and social services increase due to providers increasingly covering mental and behavioral health treatment, as population agesFarming decline due to productivity increases in agriculture, offsetting small gains among forest, conservation, and logging workersMedia and communications increase due to growth of public relations specialists and social media; additionally, a demand for interpreters and translators arises due to continual globalization
While growth points more toward higher levels of schooling, since many occupations require less than a high school diploma, they will still account for 63% of new jobs between 2010 and 2020
Openings stem from both employment growth and replacement needsReplacement needs are expected to account for 63% (54.8 million jobs) between 2010 and 2020, so occupations will slower growth rates will still have openings due to replacement needsSales, food preparation and serving generate the largest replacement needsReplacement needs are greatest in the largest occupations and in those with relatively low pay or limited training requirementsHealthcare projects 5.6 million openings, but only 39% due to replacement needsFarming, fishing, and forestry offer opportunities despite overall declines in employment, due solely to the replacement needs of a workforce characterized by high levels of retirement and turnover
Personal Care Aides (70%)/Home Health Aides (69%) – as baby boomers age, the demand for home health aides will increase; less expensive than nursing homes or hospitalsBiomedical Engineers (62%) – again, as baby boomers age, an increasing demand for biomedical devices and procedures increases; ability to work in a number of different facets also helps greatlyHelpers (60%) – construction laborers (brickmasons, carpenters, etc.); repairing and maintaining the nation’s aging infrastructure becomes a necessityVet Techs (52%) – increasing desire to consider pets as part of the family, so more money is dumped into vet services; as vets become more specialized, vet techs are in higher demandEvent Planners (44%) – businesses become increasingly international, thereby planning of conventions and meetings become more important
Registered Nurses (711,900) – growth due to technological advances, permitting a greater number of health problems to be treated; more expected in outpatient care centersRetail Salespersons (706,800) - Population growth will increase retail sales and demand for these workers; employment in the warehouse clubs and supercenters industry is expected to grow 51 percent during the next decade, while department store employment should continue to shrinkHome Health Aides (706,3000) - as baby boomers age, the demand for home health aides will increase; less expensive than nursing homes or hospitalsOffice Clerks (489,500) - organizations increasingly hiring administrative support workers who can do a variety of tasks rather than a single, specialized task; moderated growth due to organizations becoming paperless; depends on industry, as healthcare will grow, but government will shrinkFood Preparation/Serving Workers (398,000) – fastest growth will come from nonrestaurant servers, such as those who deliver food trays in hotels, hospitals, residential care facilities, and at catered events
Audiologists, Biochemists/Biophysicists, Medical Scientists, Optometrists, Physical Therapists - as the population grows old, need increasesVets – growing considerably, as pet care advances
Healthcare Social Workers – increase in demand for health care and social services, but will vary by specialty, especially due to more investigation into child abuse cases and foster care childrenIndustrial-Organizational Psychologists - organizations have begun using these psychologists to help select and keep employees, increase productivity, and identify potential workplace improvementsMarriage-Family Therapists - Insurance companies increasingly provide for reimbursement of counselors and marriage and family therapists as a less costly alternative to psychiatrists and psychologistOccupational Therapists – baby boomers maintaining their independence by recommending home modifications and strategies that make daily activities easierPhysician Assistants - As more physicians enter specialty areas of medicine, there will be a greater need for primary healthcare providers, such as physician assistants, to provide routine care
Athletic Trainers - As people become more aware of sports-related injuries at a young age, demand for athletic trainers is expected to increase, most significantly in schools and youth leagues; concussionsBiomedical Engineers – baby boomers growing oldCost Estimators - companies look for more accurate cost projections and products and services that are more cost-effective; especially in construction areaDB Admins - Rapid growth in data collection by businesses will contribute to the growth of this occupation, including information security needsGeographers - More widespread use of geographic information system (GIS) technology allows firms to use geographic data to make better business and planning decisions; will grow fastest in professional, scientific, and technical services industryHealth Educators - teach people how to live healthy lives and avoid costly diseases, which helps cut costsInterpreters/Translators – due to globalization of industriesMarket Research Analysts/Marketing Specialists - driven by an increased use of data and market research across all industries in order to understand the needs and wants of customers and measure the effectiveness of marketing and business strategies.Event Planners - businesses become increasingly international, thereby planning of conventions and meetings become more important Mental Health Social Workers - drug offenders are increasingly being sent to treatment programs rather than to jail; substance abuse social workersPersonal Financial Advisors - As large numbers of baby boomers approach retirement, they will seek planning advice from personal financial advisorSoftware Developers - large increase in the demand for computer software, especially mobile technology
Medical Techs (cardiovascular technologists & technicians, dental hygienists, vet techs, medical equipment repairers, EMTs) - Technological advances and less expensive equipment now allow more procedures to be done outside of hospitals.Sonographers - when given the option, patients begin to choose to avoid exposure to radiation or undergo invasive procedures. More procedures done outside of hospitals to cut costs.Medical Assistants (occupational therapy, physical therapy, dental assistants) - Older people are particularly vulnerable to chronic and debilitating conditions that require therapeutic services.HVAC Mechanics - Commercial and residential building construction will drive employment growth as the construction industry continues to recover from the recession
Judges - The number of federal and state judgeships is expected to experience little to no change because nearly every new position for a judge must be authorized and approved by legislature.Librarians - As electronic resources become more common, patrons and support staff will be more comfortable using them, so fewer librarians will be needed for assistance.Political Scientists - Because the federal government employs more than half of all political scientists, employment growth will be tempered as overall employment in the federal government declines.Art Directors - Although job opportunities may decline as traditional print publications lose ground to other media forms, new opportunities are expected to arise as the number of electronic magazines and Internet-based publications grows; need to focus on web design insteadMultimedia Artists/Animators - slowed by companies hiring animators who work oversees.Career/Technical Education Educators - Employment growth will be due to rising school enrollments, which increase demand for these workers. However, growth will likely be limited by an increased focus on traditional academic subjects.Writers/Authors - Despite slower-than-average employment growth, online publications and services are growing in number and sophistication, spurring demand for writers and authors with Web and multimedia experience.
Reporters/Correspondents - Declines are expected because of the consolidation of news organizations, decreases in the readership of newspapers, and declines in viewership for many news television shows.Air Traffic Controllers - Despite an expected increase in air traffic, employment growth will not keep pace because the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) already hired many new controllers over the last several years. In addition, federal budget constraints should limit the hiring of new controllers, and the NextGen satellite based system is expected to allow individual controllers to handle more air traffic.Desktop Publishers - increased computer-processing capacity and the widespread availability of more elaborate desktop publishing software will make it easier and more affordable for nonprinting professionals to create their own materials. Insurance Appraisers (auto) - As automobiles become safer, the number of traffic accidents is expected to decline.
Rebuilding/maintaining of nation’s infrastructureRecovery from the recessionComputer/system automationBaby boomers agingGlobalization/decentralization of industry/businessAttempts to cut down on costs
