This document summarizes Accuride's financial performance in 2011 and provides forecasts for 2012. Some key points: - Accuride's revenue in 2011 was NT$2,523 million, a 1% decrease from 2010. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were NT$831 million, a 0.9% increase from 2010. - Forecasts for 2012 estimate revenue will increase 5.8% to NT$3,138 million and EBIT will rise 13.2% to NT$1,134 million. - Accuride's share price closed at NT$163 on December 31, 2011. Target price estimates and consensus analyst recommendations for 2012 are positive.

1. f
(2059.TW/2059 TT)
2012
2012
NT$141.5 Accuride 25%
2012 30% 2012
2012 30%
1
2 886.2.2181.8726
3 angelah@kgisia.com.tw
2011 15-16% 2012 12.5%
51%
5-10% 2012
25% 30%
30% 2012
163 (2012 15 ) 2,000 2012
Blum
2012
3.57 3.89
2,500-3,000
309% 126%
46%
51% 87%
5-10%
89% 7% 50%
( 25-30%) 5.5%
4.3% 17%
1.4
2011 25% 9.53 2012
1.52 4.5%
12% 10.89
2012
2011F 2012F
3Q11 4Q11F
(%) (%)
QoQ (%) YoY (%) (%) QoQ (%) YoY (%) 2,548 2,523 (1.0) 2,967 3,138 5.8
644 4.5 3.0 650 (0.8) 678 5.2 5.4 EBIT 823 831 0.9 1,002 1,134 13.2
329 16.1 2.2 306 7.5 339 3.0 (4.5) 880 1,058 20.2 1,076 1,209 12.3
EBIT 230 26.9 (3.7) 200 15.2 231 0.0 (13.2) 731 878 20.2 893 1,003 12.3
187 - - 217 (13.9) 62 (66.9) -
( ) 7.93 9.53 20.2 9.70 10.89 12.3
357 309.0 125.7 205 74.3 250 (30.1) 93.2
(%) 48.5 49.0 0.5 ppts 49.8 49.9 0.0 ppts
( ) 3.89 309.0 125.7 2.23 74.3 2.72 (30.1) 93.2
(%) 51.1 5.1 ppts (0.4) ppts 47.1 4.0 ppts 50.0 (1.1) ppts (5.2) ppts (%) 32.3 32.9 0.6 ppts 33.8 36.1 2.4 ppts
EBIT 35.8 6.3 ppts (2.5) ppts 30.8 5.0 ppts 34.0 (1.8) ppts (7.3) ppts (%) 28.7 34.8 6.1 ppts 30.1 32.0 1.9 ppts
(%) 55.4 41.3 ppts 30.1 ppts 31.5 23.9 ppts 36.8 (18.6) ppts 16.7 ppts
2012
2012
2012
2012 2 Intel( ) CPU
15 113.5 163
8 3.5
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2. F
(
12 31
)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2009A 2,175 1,123 775 648 7.13 7.64
2010A 2,551 1,327 953 704 7.66 8.22
2011F 2,523 1,237 831 878 9.53 10.23
2012F 3,138 1,565 1,134 1,003 10.89 11.69
(
12 31 EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/Inv. C
)
(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%)
2009A 5.4 13.7 19.8 18.5 2.5 22.0
2010A 4.5 10.8 18.5 17.2 2.3 20.7
2011F 4.4 11.6 14.8 13.8 2.0 22.8
2012F 3.4 8.3 13.0 12.1 1.7 22.9
52 ( / ): 98 - 151.4
12 ( ) 163.0 ( / ): 13.0/433
/ (%) 15.2 ( ): 92
(percentile, %) 57 ( ): 92
-12/11 (%) 3.9 ( ): 4
-12/11 (NT$) 44.9 3 ( ): 0.5
-12/11 (x) 3.2 % (3,6,12 ) 16.9; 6.2; 3.6
-12/11 (%) % (3,6,12 ) 14.9; 25.7; 14.6
:
1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 2011F 2012F
(NT$ )
583 617 644 678 651 703 830 954 2,523 3,138
298 334 315 339 332 359 415 467 1,285 1,573
286 283 329 339 319 344 415 487 1,237 1,565
97 102 99 108 102 102 108 119 406 431
188 182 230 231 217 243 307 367 831 1,134
30 31 32 28 38 38 38 38 120 150
1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 3 3
EBITDA 219 214 263 259 255 281 345 406 954 1,287
3 3 4 6 4 4 4 4 15 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
29 (38) 192 67 25 25 25 25 250 100
31 (35) 196 73 29 29 29 29 265 118
9 9 9 12 11 11 11 11 39 43
9 9 9 12 11 11 11 11 39 43
211 137 417 292 236 261 326 386 1,058 1,209
( ) 27 50 60 43 51 51 51 51 180 206
184 87 357 250 184 210 274 335 878 1,003
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
184 87 357 250 184 210 274 335 878 1,003
EPS 2.29 1.49 4.54 3.18 2.56 2.84 3.54 4.20 11.48 13.12
EPS 2.00 0.95 3.89 2.72 2.00 2.28 2.98 3.64 9.53 10.89
(%)
49.0 45.9 51.1 50.0 49.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 49.9
32.3 29.4 35.8 34.0 33.3 34.5 37.0 38.5 32.9 36.1
EBITDA Margin 37.5 34.6 40.8 38.1 39.2 39.9 41.6 42.5 37.8 41.0
36.1 22.3 64.8 43.1 36.2 37.2 39.3 40.5 41.9 38.5
31.5 14.2 55.4 36.8 28.3 29.9 33.1 35.1 34.8 32.0
(%)
(9.4) 5.8 4.5 5.2 (4.0) 8.0 18.0 15.0 (1.1) 24.4
(19.5) (0.8) 16.1 3.0 (5.9) 8.0 20.4 17.3 (6.7) 26.5
(29.0) (3.6) 26.9 0.0 (6.0) 11.9 26.6 19.7 (12.8) 36.4
EBITDA (25.8) (2.3) 23.2 (1.7) (1.4) 10.1 22.9 17.5 (10.0) 34.9
36.0 (34.7) 203.7 (29.9) (19.4) 10.9 24.6 18.5 23.6 14.3
42.0 (52.4) 309.0 (30.1) (26.2) 14.0 30.7 22.0 24.6 14.3
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3. f
2012
1986
2001 3.89
2005
2.98
48% 2.72
2.28
2007 2.00 2.00
2008 1.41
0.95
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F
|1| 85 20
80
5 10
7 75
8 70 0
65
60 (10)
55
(20)
79 50
45 (30)
Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11
2012
900 24.0x 21.3x 18.6x
200
800
700 15.9x
160
600
13.2x
500
120
400 10.5x
300
80 7.8x
200
100
0 40
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012
55.2 6.5x 5.7x 4.9x
200 4.1x
51.1
50.0 50.0 160 3.3x
49.0 49.0 49.0
2.5x
45.9 120
1.7x
80
40
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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4. f
12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
4,126 5,199 5,401 6,083 6,826 2,561 2,175 2,551 2,523 3,138
2,733 3,571 3,745 4,333 5,046 1,323 1,051 1,224 1,285 1,573
1,842 2,669 2,857 3,314 3,883 1,238 1,123 1,327 1,237 1,565
342 270 310 321 315
323 349 374 406 431
485 562 504 622 774
916 775 953 831 1,134
64 69 74 75 75
7 (16) (26) (23) (25)
1,394 1,628 1,656 1,750 1,780
0 0 0 0 0 32 11 10 15 18
1,384 1,618 1,643 1,740 1,770 25 27 36 39 43
9 10 12 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
1,469 1,968 1,827 1,945 2,192 35 53 (71) 250 100
555 1,480 520 625 686 0 0 0 0 0
167 195 166 229 280 958 812 856 1,058 1,209
86 956 7 66 76 172 164 151 180 206
303 329 347 330 330 786 648 704 878 1,003
914 488 1,306 1,319 1,506 EBITDA 991 851 1,060 954 1,287
866 435 1,251 1,259 1,441
( ) 8.70 7.13 7.66 9.53 10.89
49 53 56 60 65
2,657 3,231 3,574 4,138 4,635
785 871 921 921 921
136 289 361 361 361
1,736 2,070 2,292 2,856 3,353
0 0 0 0 0 12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
887 768 814 916 1,063
786 648 704 878 1,003
75 76 107 123 153
26 44 3 (84) (94)
12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 0 0 0 0 0
(% ) (420) (310) (135) (217) (183)
28.0 (15.1) 17.3 (1.1) 24.4 (420) (307) (131) (216) (180)
26.0 (15.4) 23.1 (12.8) 36.4 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA 23.3 (14.1) 24.7 (10.0) 34.9 0 (3) (4) (1) (3)
18.8 (17.5) 8.6 24.6 14.3
Free Cash Flow 467 458 679 699 880
18.0 (18.1) 7.5 24.4 14.3
(%)
(202) 370 (492) (242) (311)
48.3 51.6 52.0 49.0 49.9 (288) (74) (361) (314) (507)
35.7 35.6 37.4 32.9 36.1 88 440 (133) 68 191
EBITDA 38.7 39.1 41.6 37.8 41.0 (2) 4 3 4 5
30.7 29.8 27.6 34.8 32.0 266 827 188 457 569
20.3 13.9 13.3 15.3 15.5
32.7 22.0 20.7 22.8 22.9
/
(%) 35.8 43.1 35.2 32.0 32.7
(%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash ROIC (Return on Invested Capital)
(X) 39.2 31.6 24.8 28.3 29.4 12 31 1- + + =
(X) 8.9 0.9 20.6 10.4 10.6
Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) 35.4 29.0 22.6 23.6 24.9 2008A 48.7% 2.9% 12.6% 35.7%
Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) 8.0 0.8 18.8 8.7 9.0 2009A 44.9% 3.5% 16.0% 35.6%
(X) 4.9 2.4 7.2 6.9 7.4 2010A 43.8% 4.2% 14.7% 37.4%
2011F 46.1% 4.9% 16.1% 32.9%
(X) 4.3 2.2 6.6 6.4 6.9
2012F 45.2% 4.9% 13.7% 36.1%
(NT$ ) (831) (1,084) (1,438) (1,794) (2,178)
(NT$ ) 12 31 1/ + + =
8.70 7.13 7.66 9.53 10.89
2008A 0.2 0.5 0.0 1.3
9.53 7.96 8.83 10.87 12.56 2009A 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.0
29.33 35.31 38.80 44.92 50.31 2010A 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.2
28.27 23.77 27.69 27.39 34.06 2011F 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.1
EBITDA/shr 10.14 8.52 10.37 9.02 12.30 2012F 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.3
4.00 3.60 3.41 5.50 6.00 12 31 x x 1- = ROIC
2008A 35.7% 1.3 82.1% 38.7%
(X) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 2009A 35.6% 1.0 79.8% 29.2%
69.1 94.4 72.1 90.0 90.0 2010A 37.4% 1.2 82.3% 36.4%
48.7 45.4 44.3 46.5 36.6 2011F 32.9% 1.1 83.0% 29.5%
23.7 32.7 23.7 33.1 32.6 2012F 36.1% 1.3 83.0% 37.8%
94.1 107.1 92.7 103.4 94.0
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5. f
250
200
150
100
50
0
Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11
:
( )
07-Nov-11 141.5 113.5 163.0
01-Sep-11 104.5 133.0 113.5
28-Jun-11 120.5 188.0 133.0
29-Sep-10 156 193.0 188.0
26-Jan-10 174.5 187.0 193.0
23-Sep-09 189 110.5 187.0
01-Jul-09 105.5 136.7 110.5
07-May-09 124 128.0 136.7
16-Feb-09 97.8 100.0 128.0
27-Nov-08 85.5 132.0 100.0
13-Oct-08 102.5 240.0 132.0
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6. 100 A 1907-1909 104 700
200051 886.2.2181.8888
886.2.8501.1691
2014 A 24D1
518008
852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building
852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand
66.2658.8888
66.2658.8014
(OP) (Excessive Return)
( ) 40%
(N) ( )
40% 40%
(U) ( )
40%
(NR)
(R ) /
* =( / )–1
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