2016 GGSD Forum - Parellel Session A: Presentation by Ms. Julie Rozenberg, Economist, World Bank Sustainable Development Group

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Urban infrastructure investments require decision making under uncertainty given their long lifetimes and unpredictable future changes. Traditional planning that relies on predictions of a single future can lead to overconfidence and poor decisions. A better approach, called "decision making under uncertainty", develops strategies that are robust to different potential futures through identifying vulnerabilities and no-regret investments. This approach was applied for urban water supply in Lima, Peru by phasing investments based on observed changes in climate and demand over time. Stakeholder involvement is also important for balancing competing priorities under uncertain conditions.

Economy & Finance

Investing in Urban Infrastructure
In A Changing World
Julie Rozenberg, Sustainable Development Chief Economist Office

Urban infrastructure investments have very long lifetimes
3

Good Decision Making is Challenged by
Uncertainty and Disagreement
Shanghai 1990 vs. 2010
Rapid
Changes
Competing
Priorities
Conservation vs.
Development
4
Uncertain
Future
Climate Change

Traditional Planning
Asks “What Will The Future Bring?”
What will the
future be?
What is the best
near-term decision?
How sensitive is
our decision to our
prediction?
“Traditional Planning”
• Conditions are stable or easy
to predict
• There is consensus among
stakeholders
Works well when:

It can lead to overconfidence in our projections
“What if I’m wrong?”

What will the
future be?
What is the best
near-term decision?
How sensitive is
our decision to our
predictions?
“Predict Then Act”
Decision Making Under Uncertainty Runs the Analysis Backwards
Develop strategy
adaptations to
reduce
vulnerabilities
Identify
vulnerabilities of
these strategies
What are the
available
strategies?
Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMU)

Urban Water Supply In Lima, Peru
8
Robustness test of current system
• Identification of no-regret
investments
• Phasing of investment
based on future
observation of climate and
demand

Urban wetlands in
Colombo
Rent decrease
vs
Flood risk, water
quality, recreation
Impacts on poor and non-poor
Under which conditions is the development
of the wetlands a good economic option?

Final remark: Stakeholder involvement is key

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