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Cozzi giff oecd

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Cozzi giff oecd

  1. 1. © OECD/IEA 2015 19 May, GIFF Laura Cozzi
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA 2015 A good news: emissions halt in 2014 Global energy-related CO2 emissions For the first time in history, 2014 recorded a stall in energy-related CO2 emissions despite a growth of the global economy 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Gt 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dissolution of Soviet Union Global economic Downturn 2014 Latest estimate
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA 2015 Renewables come of age, but fossil fuel investment still dominant Annual energy supply investment Investment in renewables rose from $60 billion in 2000 to a high point approaching $300 billion in 2011, stabilising at around that level since 500 1 000 1 500 Billiondollars(2012) 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 Renewables Power transmission & distribution Fossil fuels Nuclear
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA 2015 States hold many of the cards Ownership of worldwide power generation capacity & oil and gas reserves Alongside investment by the private sector, the objectives, corporate culture & financing of state-owned companies are critical to future energy investment flows 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Power plants Oil and gas reserves States & national oil companies Private sector State-owned companies Private utilities Industrial plants & households
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA 2015 GW Power sector: the capacity to change? Power generation capacity additions and retirements, 2014-2040 Almost 40% of power capacity reaches its end of lifetime until 2040, mostly in OECD countries – a replacement challenge & decarbonisation opportunity at the same time 400 600 800 1 200 1 400 1 6001 000200 United States European Union Japan China India Middle East Retirements AdditionsNet additions 1 800
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA 2015 The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040 – Paris must send a strong signal that low-carbon investment needs to increase to four-times current levels The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040 The 2 °C goal – last chance in Paris? World CO2 budget for 2 °C ~2300 Gt 25% 50% 75% 100% Share of budget used in Central Scenario 1900-2012 2012-2040 Average annual low-carbon investment, 2014-2040 Central Scenario For 2 °C target 2013 CCS Nuclear Renewables Efficiency 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Trilliondollars(2013)
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA 2015 Conclusions  The energy sector shows encouraging trends for both renewables and energy efficiency ahead of the Paris climate meeting  Energy sector investment decisions will be decisive in determining our success in decoupling emissions and economic growth  An increasing number of countries are putting forward decarbonisation policies, including the two largest economies and emitters (the US and China)  On 15 June, the IEA will unveil a 10 year energy strategy to achieve a global peak in emissions while not harming any countries economic growth

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