This document discusses three projects that aim to manage demand on urban rail networks: 1. A case study of latent rail demand in Perth explores identifying potential new riders and estimating how demand might change with policy adjustments. 2. An international best practice review evaluates factors influencing rail demand and ways to balance demand with capacity, including case studies of management strategies in other cities. 3. A peak smoothing management study identifies options to moderate peak demand, including modeling fare incentives, service improvements, and educating customers on crowding levels to shift trips to off-peak times. The focus is piloting approaches on Sydney's Cronulla line.

1. Urban Rail Demand Management Strategies
Project Code: R1.107
Identification, evaluation and appraisal of factors which influence
demand for urban rail services and investigating ways in which these
factors may be influenced to balance demand and capacity of urban rail
to improve efficiency and enable cost effective provision of services.

2. 3 Component Projects
• Latent Rail Demand
– A Perth Case Study
• Best Practice Review
– City Case Studies
• Peak of the Peak Management
– Modelling and Estimation
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3. Latent Demand Study
Purpose
 to explore a viable approach to developing a practical decision-support tool for assessing
the short-term impacts of the policy and operational adjustments at rail corridor level on
the modal changes in the demand for urban rail transit
Main Questions:
• Where is the likely market for latent demand come from?
• How are features of the trips and trip makers?
• What is the profile of that market?
• What are the major factors impacting the latent demand?
• How to simulate the interactions between policy adjustments and demand change?
2 Stage Project
• Identification of the potential market population through geographical analysis of the
relevant journey to work trip data in ABS Census database;
• Estimation of latent demand through behavioural analysis of mode choice modelling by
employing local strategic transport model.
Methodology
• Case Study of the Fremantle – Midland urban rail corridor in Perth
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4. Latent Demand Study
Main Lessons
 Methodology of Adopted Approach is
Verified
 More Accurate Latent Demand Estimation
Requires:
1. conduct larger scale and in-depth rail passenger surveys on
travel behaviour, such as mode choice, departure time
choice, etc;
2. explore and measure unrevealed impact factors on travel
mode choice, such as transfer convenience, overcrowding,
and personal social-economical characteristics;
3. develop demand estimation models specifically for rail
transit station, corridor, or network;
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5. Best Practice Review
Purpose
 to explore established, new and emerging strategic options for coping with peak period demand in
major rail networks – and potentially “smoothing” demand through the concerted application of effective
management, pricing, planning and other options
Project Outline:
• Initial identification, evaluation and appraisal of factors which influence
demand for urban rail services
• Subsequent investigation of ways in which these factors can be influenced to
balance demand and capacity of urban rail
Methodology
• Review of Current Literature and Research
• Case Studies of Demand Management Practices in Sydney, San Francisco,
Munich and Washington DC.
• Synthesis and Performance Benchmarking of International Demand
Management Performance
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6. Best Practice Review
Main Lessons
 Many passenger rail systems have lacked
active management of passenger demand
levels for an extended period.
 Other agencies are performing reasonably
well from a “demand balancing” point of view.
 Rail demand management appears to be re-
emerging as an important discipline in which
passenger demand levels are actively
managed, in order to deliver “smoother”
patronage levels across the day and week.
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7. Best Practice Review
Main Lessons
 Potential areas of strategy and action include:
 better tracking and management of
passenger flows;
 efficient pricing structures including peak
surcharges;
 encouragements to off-peak travel
including customer outreach;
 “responsive and responsible” network
planning, service and infrastructure
measures on the supply-side.
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8. Peak of the Peak Management Study
Purpose
To identify and evaluate demand management options for effectively moderating or
smoothing peak demand on Australian Urban Rail Networks
Project Outline:
• Identification and appraisal of instruments for managing urban rail demand
• Validation of the efficacy of targeted instruments
• Recommendations for Further Investigation and for Policy
Methodology
• Review of Current Literature and Research
– Best practices in a range of industries
• Industry Expert Consultation
– Identification and validation of policy instruments
• “Proof of Concept” Pilot Demand Modeling and Estimation
– Development of a “Rooftops” empirical model and application to the Sydney Cronulla – Illawarra
line.
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9. Peak Smoothing Instruments
 Impact social & institutional peak drivers (e.g. office hour flexibility
Reducing underlying campaigns/ telecommuting and internet access, etc.)
need for service
 Land use & transit oriented development to shift travel patterns
Changing way in which  Use other transport mode interfaces and feeder transit
needs are met (timetables), incl. role of active transport (walking and cycling)
 Increase peak-of-peak fares
 Reduce shoulder peak fares
Pricing & Financial
 Station-specific surcharges (where high congestion)
Mechanisms
 Employer incentives and disincentives
 Station parking pricing and/ or availability
 Fast/express vs. “all stops” services
Improve service  Service frequency
delivery levels during
shoulder periods  Passenger flow enhancement mechanisms on rail platforms
 Standing vs. sitting carriages
Educating Customers  Use transparency in peak fares & crowding levels to shift demand
Other  Rationing, Queuing
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10. Lessons Learnt – Case Studies Reviewed
Sydney Melbourne London
SmartSaver Early Bird
There is potential for peak smoothing
Significant fare differentiation is required
Target the critical peak period
Service differentiation is key
Don’t make it difficult and inconvenient
Allow enough time for changes to take effect

11. Proof of Concept Study focus
Reducing underlying
need for service
Changing way in which
needs are met
Pricing & Financial  Increase peak-of-peak fares
Mechanisms  Reduce shoulder peak fares
Improve service
delivery levels during  Fast/express vs. “all stops” services
shoulder periods  Service frequency
Educating Customers  Use transparency in peak fares & crowding levels to shift demand
Other
DRAFT, CONFIDENTIAL 11

12. Questions?
THANK YOU
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