Charting the Financial Crisis: A Narrative eBookShavondaBrandon
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
Following Presentation deals with brief outline over what is known as "Global Recession". It has novice friendly language and attention seeking approach.
Charting the Financial Crisis: A Narrative eBookShavondaBrandon
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
Following Presentation deals with brief outline over what is known as "Global Recession". It has novice friendly language and attention seeking approach.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
The Causes of the 2007-08 Financial Crisis: Investigative StudyPhil Goldney
A comprehensive study of the causes of the 2007-08 global Banking Crisis, incorporating primary research from industry professionals. The study amounts to approximately 6000 words. Please contact me for the extensive and comprehensive bibliography.
A growing number of indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is heading for ‘stagflation’, i.e. a period of economic stagnation coupled with inflation. Personal consumption expenditures, which comprise almost three-quarters of gross domestic product (GDP), are expected to recede, as implied by sharply declining indexes based on consumer spending plans.
The current economic slowdown can only partially be attributed to longterm cyclical corrections. Without doubt, the proliferation of economic pessimism stems mainly from the severe liquidity and market risk crises in the financial system.
Authored by: Lucian Orlowski
Published in 2008
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | April 2020 | Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, an...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Overview of GLOBAL FINANCE CRISIS and impact with market. Impacts of the US Financial Crisis on Indian Economy. FINANCE CRISIS, Subprime Mortgage Crisis, US Financial Markets, US Unemployment and Stock Market Returns, Treasury Rates and Inflation,
World crisis of 2008 and its economic, social and geopolitical consequencesFernando Alcoforado
This article aims to identify the causes of the global economic and financial crisis of 2008, tracing the economic and social scenarios and global geopolitical changes resulting from the crisis. The methodology consisted in the analysis of publications related to the global economic and financial crisis and its consequences. The result of the studies indicated that the global economic and financial crisis of 2008 will be prolonged and that it may result in the advent of a new world order, the decline of the US and the rise of China as a major economic power in the world.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
The Causes of the 2007-08 Financial Crisis: Investigative StudyPhil Goldney
A comprehensive study of the causes of the 2007-08 global Banking Crisis, incorporating primary research from industry professionals. The study amounts to approximately 6000 words. Please contact me for the extensive and comprehensive bibliography.
A growing number of indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is heading for ‘stagflation’, i.e. a period of economic stagnation coupled with inflation. Personal consumption expenditures, which comprise almost three-quarters of gross domestic product (GDP), are expected to recede, as implied by sharply declining indexes based on consumer spending plans.
The current economic slowdown can only partially be attributed to longterm cyclical corrections. Without doubt, the proliferation of economic pessimism stems mainly from the severe liquidity and market risk crises in the financial system.
Authored by: Lucian Orlowski
Published in 2008
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | April 2020 | Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, an...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Overview of GLOBAL FINANCE CRISIS and impact with market. Impacts of the US Financial Crisis on Indian Economy. FINANCE CRISIS, Subprime Mortgage Crisis, US Financial Markets, US Unemployment and Stock Market Returns, Treasury Rates and Inflation,
World crisis of 2008 and its economic, social and geopolitical consequencesFernando Alcoforado
This article aims to identify the causes of the global economic and financial crisis of 2008, tracing the economic and social scenarios and global geopolitical changes resulting from the crisis. The methodology consisted in the analysis of publications related to the global economic and financial crisis and its consequences. The result of the studies indicated that the global economic and financial crisis of 2008 will be prolonged and that it may result in the advent of a new world order, the decline of the US and the rise of China as a major economic power in the world.
During the months following the global recession, many economists (including ones from this organisation) discussed the possibility of a double dip recession. Between the European debt crisis and the US’s high unemployment rate, it seemed likely that the global economy would slip back into recession territory. However, with the exception of the US, recent global economic performance has been better than expected. Fiscal and monetary policy in most countries remains supportive of growth and although another global slowdown looks inevitable, a relapse into recession is unlikely. The Economist Intelligence Unit explains the likelihood of a double dip recesssion in this presentation.
The Financial Crisis in Pictures: OutcomesAmy Kundrat
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
Hope, headwinds or hurricanes? This presentation from the Economist Intelligence Unit takes a look at the global economy today and in the long-term. Key takeaways: risk of double dip recession is high at 30%, but the EIU thinks that sluggish growth, not negative growth, is the most likely outcome; China will take over the US as the largest economy by 2025; without major economic reform, the euro area may start on a more gradual decline.
Niall Ferguson, noted economic historian, author, and Harvard Professor outlined the next steps in the current “Great Depression to a packed Canada 2020 Speakers Series crowd on Monday 23 February. For more, see www.canada2020.ca.
Maruthi Prithivirajan, Head of ASEAN & IN Solution Architecture, Neo4j
Get an inside look at the latest Neo4j innovations that enable relationship-driven intelligence at scale. Learn more about the newest cloud integrations and product enhancements that make Neo4j an essential choice for developers building apps with interconnected data and generative AI.
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
A tale of scale & speed: How the US Navy is enabling software delivery from l...sonjaschweigert1
Rapid and secure feature delivery is a goal across every application team and every branch of the DoD. The Navy’s DevSecOps platform, Party Barge, has achieved:
- Reduction in onboarding time from 5 weeks to 1 day
- Improved developer experience and productivity through actionable findings and reduction of false positives
- Maintenance of superior security standards and inherent policy enforcement with Authorization to Operate (ATO)
Development teams can ship efficiently and ensure applications are cyber ready for Navy Authorizing Officials (AOs). In this webinar, Sigma Defense and Anchore will give attendees a look behind the scenes and demo secure pipeline automation and security artifacts that speed up application ATO and time to production.
We will cover:
- How to remove silos in DevSecOps
- How to build efficient development pipeline roles and component templates
- How to deliver security artifacts that matter for ATO’s (SBOMs, vulnerability reports, and policy evidence)
- How to streamline operations with automated policy checks on container images
GraphSummit Singapore | The Art of the Possible with Graph - Q2 2024Neo4j
Neha Bajwa, Vice President of Product Marketing, Neo4j
Join us as we explore breakthrough innovations enabled by interconnected data and AI. Discover firsthand how organizations use relationships in data to uncover contextual insights and solve our most pressing challenges – from optimizing supply chains, detecting fraud, and improving customer experiences to accelerating drug discoveries.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 6DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 6. In this session, we will cover Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI webinar offers an in-depth exploration of leveraging cutting-edge technologies for test automation within the UiPath platform. Attendees will delve into the integration of generative AI, a test automation solution, with Open AI advanced natural language processing capabilities.
Throughout the session, participants will discover how this synergy empowers testers to automate repetitive tasks, enhance testing accuracy, and expedite the software testing life cycle. Topics covered include the seamless integration process, practical use cases, and the benefits of harnessing AI-driven automation for UiPath testing initiatives. By attending this webinar, testers, and automation professionals can gain valuable insights into harnessing the power of AI to optimize their test automation workflows within the UiPath ecosystem, ultimately driving efficiency and quality in software development processes.
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into integrating generative AI.
2. Understanding how this integration enhances test automation within the UiPath platform
3. Practical demonstrations
4. Exploration of real-world use cases illustrating the benefits of AI-driven test automation for UiPath
Topics covered:
What is generative AI
Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath integration with generative AI
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
zkStudyClub - Reef: Fast Succinct Non-Interactive Zero-Knowledge Regex ProofsAlex Pruden
This paper presents Reef, a system for generating publicly verifiable succinct non-interactive zero-knowledge proofs that a committed document matches or does not match a regular expression. We describe applications such as proving the strength of passwords, the provenance of email despite redactions, the validity of oblivious DNS queries, and the existence of mutations in DNA. Reef supports the Perl Compatible Regular Expression syntax, including wildcards, alternation, ranges, capture groups, Kleene star, negations, and lookarounds. Reef introduces a new type of automata, Skipping Alternating Finite Automata (SAFA), that skips irrelevant parts of a document when producing proofs without undermining soundness, and instantiates SAFA with a lookup argument. Our experimental evaluation confirms that Reef can generate proofs for documents with 32M characters; the proofs are small and cheap to verify (under a second).
Paper: https://eprint.iacr.org/2023/1886
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FMESafe Software
In this second installment of our Essentials of Automations webinar series, we’ll explore the landscape of triggers and actions, guiding you through the nuances of authoring and adapting workspaces for seamless automations. Gain an understanding of the full spectrum of triggers and actions available in FME, empowering you to enhance your workspaces for efficient automation.
We’ll kick things off by showcasing the most commonly used event-based triggers, introducing you to various automation workflows like manual triggers, schedules, directory watchers, and more. Plus, see how these elements play out in real scenarios.
Whether you’re tweaking your current setup or building from the ground up, this session will arm you with the tools and insights needed to transform your FME usage into a powerhouse of productivity. Join us to discover effective strategies that simplify complex processes, enhancing your productivity and transforming your data management practices with FME. Let’s turn complexity into clarity and make your workspaces work wonders!
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of technologies, XML continues to play a vital role in structuring, storing, and transporting data across diverse systems. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present new methodologies for enhancing XML development workflows, introducing efficiency, automation, and intelligent capabilities. This presentation will outline the scope and perspective of utilizing AI in XML development. The potential benefits and the possible pitfalls will be highlighted, providing a balanced view of the subject.
We will explore the capabilities of AI in understanding XML markup languages and autonomously creating structured XML content. Additionally, we will examine the capacity of AI to enrich plain text with appropriate XML markup. Practical examples and methodological guidelines will be provided to elucidate how AI can be effectively prompted to interpret and generate accurate XML markup.
Further emphasis will be placed on the role of AI in developing XSLT, or schemas such as XSD and Schematron. We will address the techniques and strategies adopted to create prompts for generating code, explaining code, or refactoring the code, and the results achieved.
The discussion will extend to how AI can be used to transform XML content. In particular, the focus will be on the use of AI XPath extension functions in XSLT, Schematron, Schematron Quick Fixes, or for XML content refactoring.
The presentation aims to deliver a comprehensive overview of AI usage in XML development, providing attendees with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Whether you’re at the early stages of adopting AI or considering integrating it in advanced XML development, this presentation will cover all levels of expertise.
By highlighting the potential advantages and challenges of integrating AI with XML development tools and languages, the presentation seeks to inspire thoughtful conversation around the future of XML development. We’ll not only delve into the technical aspects of AI-powered XML development but also discuss practical implications and possible future directions.
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
Dr. Sean Tan, Head of Data Science, Changi Airport Group
Discover how Changi Airport Group (CAG) leverages graph technologies and generative AI to revolutionize their search capabilities. This session delves into the unique search needs of CAG’s diverse passengers and customers, showcasing how graph data structures enhance the accuracy and relevance of AI-generated search results, mitigating the risk of “hallucinations” and improving the overall customer journey.
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
In his public lecture, Christian Timmerer provides insights into the fascinating history of video streaming, starting from its humble beginnings before YouTube to the groundbreaking technologies that now dominate platforms like Netflix and ORF ON. Timmerer also presents provocative contributions of his own that have significantly influenced the industry. He concludes by looking at future challenges and invites the audience to join in a discussion.
GridMate - End to end testing is a critical piece to ensure quality and avoid...ThomasParaiso2
End to end testing is a critical piece to ensure quality and avoid regressions. In this session, we share our journey building an E2E testing pipeline for GridMate components (LWC and Aura) using Cypress, JSForce, FakerJS…
Pushing the limits of ePRTC: 100ns holdover for 100 daysAdtran
At WSTS 2024, Alon Stern explored the topic of parametric holdover and explained how recent research findings can be implemented in real-world PNT networks to achieve 100 nanoseconds of accuracy for up to 100 days.
Enchancing adoption of Open Source Libraries. A case study on Albumentations.AIVladimir Iglovikov, Ph.D.
Presented by Vladimir Iglovikov:
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/iglovikov/
- https://x.com/viglovikov
- https://www.instagram.com/ternaus/
This presentation delves into the journey of Albumentations.ai, a highly successful open-source library for data augmentation.
Created out of a necessity for superior performance in Kaggle competitions, Albumentations has grown to become a widely used tool among data scientists and machine learning practitioners.
This case study covers various aspects, including:
People: The contributors and community that have supported Albumentations.
Metrics: The success indicators such as downloads, daily active users, GitHub stars, and financial contributions.
Challenges: The hurdles in monetizing open-source projects and measuring user engagement.
Development Practices: Best practices for creating, maintaining, and scaling open-source libraries, including code hygiene, CI/CD, and fast iteration.
Community Building: Strategies for making adoption easy, iterating quickly, and fostering a vibrant, engaged community.
Marketing: Both online and offline marketing tactics, focusing on real, impactful interactions and collaborations.
Mental Health: Maintaining balance and not feeling pressured by user demands.
Key insights include the importance of automation, making the adoption process seamless, and leveraging offline interactions for marketing. The presentation also emphasizes the need for continuous small improvements and building a friendly, inclusive community that contributes to the project's growth.
Vladimir Iglovikov brings his extensive experience as a Kaggle Grandmaster, ex-Staff ML Engineer at Lyft, sharing valuable lessons and practical advice for anyone looking to enhance the adoption of their open-source projects.
Explore more about Albumentations and join the community at:
GitHub: https://github.com/albumentations-team/albumentations
Website: https://albumentations.ai/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/100504475
Twitter: https://x.com/albumentations
8. money market stress leads to further liquidity interventions by the FedJuly 31, 2007Two Bear Stearns hedge funds file for bankruptcy Dec,17, 2008Fed cuts rate to virtually zero Elevated risk premium, what is the new normal? 80 bps Mar. 16, 2008JPMorgan offers to buy Bear for $2 a share; discount rate cut to 3.25% Mar. 11, 2008Fed agrees to lend troubled banks as much as $200bn Note: The TED spread is calculated as the difference between the 3-month T-bill interest rate and 3-month USD LIBOR Source: British Banking Association, Federal Reserve, Businessweek, washingtonpost.com, Monitor analysis
9. What appeared as a mini-crisis in U.S. subprime housing… Percentage of U.S. Delinquent Mortgages by Mortgage Type, 1998-2007
10. World Stock Market Capitalization, US$ Tr Source: World Federation of Exchanges Grew into a worldwide systemic crisis
23. Commodity prices are up, in part in anticipation of future growth World Natural Resource Prices, 2007-2009 Food Price Index (2000-2002 = 100) Oil Price, $ per barrel FAO Food Price Index Oil Price Jul-09 Source: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, U.S. Energy Information Agency
32. Further drop in U.S. housing prices below trendline
33. Rapid drop of other asset classes; Commercial real estate, credit cardsExternal Factors
34. At best half of estimated financial sector losses have been realized, how that does happen will be crucial Total loss forecasts Realized losses to date 3.5x 2x Source: Goldman Sachs, IMF, RGE Monitor, Bloomberg Finance L.P, T2 Partners
35. US home prices have further to fall US Months Supply 12 11 10 US Existing Home Sales US Home prices need to fall another 13% to reach trend line 9 7.5 8 Million 7 220 7 6.5 6 200 5 6 Million 4 180 5.5 3 1999 2004 2009 5.0 Real Home Price Index (1990=100) 160 445 140 4.0 1999 2004 2009 120 100 1950 1970 1990 2009 Source: www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data
36. US job losses continue to outpace recent recessions, can Europe continue to cushion the blow? US Unemployment rate compared to other recessions US vs EU-27 Unemployment 1974-6 EU-27 9.5% in June 1980 US 1981-3 1990 2001 2007-present Unemployment Rate (index 1=peak employment before recession) Unemployment Rate (index Nov 2007) 7/1/08 1/1/09 1/1/08 7/1/09 Quarter after employment peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, bea.gov
37. Globalization has suffered a set-back Monthly World Trade Volumes “Trade volumes have fallen much faster than in the Great Depression and it’s unclear exactly why” World Trade World Trade Volumes (2000 average = 100) 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Findata
45. New financial scenarios for the next 2-3 years No more shocks Scenario 1: Looking after No. 1 Scenario 2: The Long Boom 2.0 De-globalization Facilitation of globalization Scenario 3: Depressionary Scenario 4: All in this Together More Shocks
46. Other possible short term shocks Pandemic Food shock Terrorist attack Cyber attack Geo-political tension Explosive clean energy growth
47. Food shocksThe world population is growing rapidly …UN median projection is 9.2 billion people by 2050, from 6.7 billion now Global Population, 1750 - 2050 Estimates and projections (billions) 8 6 4 2 Developed nations Developing nations 0 2000 2050 1900 1800 1750 We are one of the few generations to witness a doubling of population in our lifetime Source: UN population division
48. Food shocks…our diets change as we get richer Meat consumption and per capita income, 2002 Calories consumed per day, 1965 – 2030 kg 120 2500 Highest growth 80 2000 40 1500 1000 40k 30k 20k 10k 0 2002 US$ Purchase power parity Americans eat 2.5 times as much meat as the average Chinese person 500 0 1965 1998 2030 Source: FAO 2008, FAOSTAT 2009, World bank 2006
50. Cyber attackInternet security is increasingly threatened 124countries use the Internet for web espionage operations Source: 2007 McAfee Criminality Report
54. Arctic sea ice coverage decreased an unprecedented 2 million km2 in 2007Source:, U of Copenhagen, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions; NSTC, Global Climate Change, Impacts in the US
56. Water will be the key factor Water problems could affect up to 250 million people in Africa by 2020 and more than one billion people in Asia by 2050. Tibetan Plateau Water System Source: Center for environmental systems research, University of Kassel
57. Water for food: how much does it take? 1,650 – 2,200 liters of water 1 kilo of soybeans 50,000 – 100,000 liters of water 1 kilo of grain-fed beef 170,000 liters of water 1 kilo of clean wool Source: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
58. % Developing world has surpassed the developed world in CO2 emissions…and is growing rapidly CO2 Emissions from hydrocarbon use and cement production by country/region (1990, 2000, 2007, 2008) 1990 2000 +5% 2007 2008 CAGR -3% Annual Emission (Pg1) -2% +2% +7% 0% +6% China India Russia Brazil Japan EU15 USA 1 1012 kg Source: Netherlands Environmental Agency
60. a Copenhagen– “Mitigation Agreement” on long term objective but misalignment on short term path International alignment to limit warming to 2°C at recent G8 meeting in Italy requires emissions to peak before 2020 Difficulty in securing sufficient developed nation reduction commitments and in agreeing on the nature of short term responsibilities for developing nations Communicated 2020 Annex 1 reduction targets (compared to 1990 emissions) Long term global emissions trajectories for energy-related CO2 emissions Long-Term Goal 450ppm-eq Baseline 400ppm-eq 550ppm-eq -4% -5% -8% Gt CO2/yr Probability that warming is contained to 2°C: -20% -25% IPCC target range -30% ~15% ~50% -40% -40% Considerations Demands ~75% Negative Emissions India China Aus. (Joint) Aus. Japan USA EU (Joint) EU Source: Monitor Analysis; solveclimate.com; EPA.gov, LA times, U of Copenhagen, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions
61.
62.
63. Goal is to generate 10 percent of its electricity renewably by 2010, and 15 percent by 2020
68. In addition to the already approved $221bn cleantech stimulus, rumored to unveil additional spending ($440bn - $660bn) dedicated entirely to new energy development over the next decade
72. Plans to spend more than $1 trillion to expand its railway network by 50% by 2020
73. Fuel economy standard of 36.7 miles per gallon and is considering raising it to 42.2 mpg by 2015Source: Center for American progress, reuters
74.
75. The next scientific revolution More Scientific Anomalies New Tools & Computing Power More Funding More Scientists Science Degrees per Capita Note: Natural Science and Engineering Degrees per 100 24 Year Olds
76. 100 10 1 0.1 0.01 The great leap in biology…new human biology Cost per Base of Sequencing and Synthesis U.S. Life Expectancy Years, at Death Cost per Base Synthesized (USD) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1985 Year Cost per Base Sequenced Cost of Short Aligo Synthesis Cost of Gene Synthesis Source: Robert Carlson Source: UN Data World Population Prospects 2006, medium variant
77. The great leap in biology… synthetic biology and regenerative medicine Regenerative Medicine Synthetic Biology Human Enhancement
102. Geo-engineeringBroad range of ideas have been created so far HOT TOPIC! HOT TOPIC! Ocean Seeding Sunlight Control CO2 Level Control Synthetic Trees Sulfur Injection Artificial Cloud Radiation Angle Varier Seawater Alkalization Venetian Space Blinds Recombinant Forest Antarctica Wrapping Non-Methanation Fodder Source: United Nations Environment Program, Wired Vision, Scientific American, Bioenergy News
111. How can we collect disks if low or no efficacy vs. additional space debris? 1 Sulfur Dioxide Source: United Nations Environment Program, Wired Vision, Scientific American, Time Magazine, Monitor Analysis
117. Split seawater into NaOH3 (leave in ocean) / HCl4 (store on land)will result seawater becoming more alkaline causing more CO2 dissolution into water
119. Effects on marine life or current?1 Iron, 2 Urea, 3 Sodium Hydroxide, 4 Hydrochloric Acid Source: United Nations Environment Program, Wired Vision, Scientific American, Living on Earth
129. ReferenceLow economic growth Quadrillion Btu Source: 2005-EIA International energy Annual 2005 (June-October 2007); 2030-EIA, World Energy Projections Plus (2008) Source: US EIA
130. The role of crime and illicit activities Parasitical autonomous zones. Illicit drug, organ, waste, and wildlife trade Taliban Movement for the Emancipation of the Nigerian Delta Hezbollah Sinaloa & Gulf Cartels Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarios de Colombia (FARC) Ogaden Guerillas Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) Source: Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2007
131. More and more products are becoming free Free MP3 Downloads Music Industry Revenues Free Online Classified Ads Sites Newspaper Ads Revenues vs. vs. 42 20 18 18 35 49% 221 212 40% 181 32% 30% 128 22% 37 17 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Global recorded-music sales, US$ bn US newspaper advertising revenue, US$ bn Global mp3 player shipments, millions Users of online classified ads sites in US
(% of internet users) Source: International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, iSuppli Corp, US Newspaper Association of America , Pew Internet & American Life Project Survey
132. Falling marginal costs of business Cross-subsidizing Free Mail Storage FREE FREE FREE + + + Expensive Expensive Expensive Free Directory Assistance 1895 2009 Falling marginal cost of doing business Free Air Travel? Free DVR /CDs? Source: Anderson, Chris – “Free! Why $0.00 is the future of business? “
133.
134. Great geopolitical uncertainty Rising BRICs Shocks (finance, food, cyber security) New actors (NGOs, terrorists, criminals) Possible climate deal Extreme integration Protectionism Business as usual Vs. 450 ppm
135. The privatization of foreign policy RichardBranson PierreOmidyar GeorgeSoros Sergey Brin Larry Page BillGates
137. -103,842 A rebalancing of power Chinese Holdings of U.S. Assets (November 2008) In US$ billions Net Purchases of Long-Term U.S. Securities – In US$ hundred millions $1.7 TRILLION Short-term bank deposits Treasury bonds (incl. short term) Agency bonds (incl. short term) Corporate bonds Equities Source: CFR working paper, ‘China’s $1.7 trillion bet.’ Numbers come from CFR estimates, U.S. Treasury International Capital, and People’s Bank of China Source: U.S. Treasury
138. Nigeria vs. Singapore: a resource vs. knowledge economy GDP per Capita (1990$), 1950-2005 Singapore Republic of Singaporefounded Nigeria Source: "The Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Total Economy Database, January 2007 (Geary Khamis methodology)
141. 2 Critical Uncertainty 2 - Form of International RelationsEbb and flow US signs bilateral nuclear deal North-Korea withdraws from NNPT Interests & Alliances West Germany enters NATO US does not ratify Kyoto protocol Berlin Wall torn down Warsaw Pact WW 2 WW 1 US intends to never join ICC Doha rounds break down NATO 1900 2000 ‘20 ‘40 ‘60 ‘80 Laws & Institutions European Economic Community, precursor to EU WTO emerges from GATT International Criminal Court EU Expands to 27 member countries Foundation of the United Nations, World Bank Kyoto protocol Geneva Convention Nuclear non-proliferation treaty IMF, IRBD & GATT founded at Bretton Woods
142. Critical Uncertainty 3 - Structure of national powerIs democracy inevitable as countries modernize? New modernization1 theory suggest that economic and technological development bring a coherent set of social, cultural, and political changes that are particularly conducive to democratization Industrialization Shift from traditional to secular-rational Difficult to avoid democratization, repressing calls for openness becomes increasingly costly Economic growth Growth of the Middle Class Sense of security, focus shifts to self-expression Postindustrial, knowledge society promotes independent thinking, appreciation of free choice Note: Modernization is not synonymous to Westernization Source: Ronald Inglehart , Christian Welzel, How Development Leads to Democracy, What We Know About Modernization
146. Participatoryand thus gain legitimacy and satisfy needs for self-expression? World values survey respondences1 to statement “Hard work brings success” United States Sweden China Russian Federation 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 In the long run, hard work usually brings a better life Hard word does not generally bring success, it’s more a matter of luck and connections 1China [2007], Russian Federation [2006], Sweden [2006], United States [2006] Source: Worldvaluessurvey.org
161. Possible scenariosWith the additional possibility of shocks Modern Non-Democratic States New Game No Shocks Shocks U.S. in Decline Both/And Interests and Alliances Laws and Institutions No Shocks Shocks Continuous Evolution U.S. Recovers Shocks No Shocks Modern Democracies Note: Source:
180. * Government is expanding “At this particular moment, only government can break the vicious cycle that is crippling our economy.” - President Barack Obama Total amount allocated for economic rescue $10.8 TRILLION Total federal spending, in FY200 US$ bn Source: Outlays from FY 2009 Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, Table 8.1
181. Exacerbated by the economy is a highly interconnected system Housing Market Economic Conditions Financial System
182. U.S. Housing Market: Reset Schedule will Test Prices Further Monthly Mortgage Rate Resets (First reset in Billions of USD) Source: IMF Financial Stability Report, April 2008, Credit Suisse
183. Tight surplus production in OPEC led to high oil prices Source: John Cook, Director, EIA Petroleum Division, “Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150?”, June 11, 2008
184.
185. Further pressure on the auto industry or other national champions could increase internal protectionist pressures
186. The DOHA rounds could stall/fail again despite recent G8 pledge in Italy to reach an agreement
187. Countries could impose tariffs on imports from regions with perceived laxer carbon regulation, as is currently written into the US House of Representatives ACES Act
189. World trade has dropped more precipitously than GDP, over 20% from its peak. Further declines could reduce the importance of trade in national economies
193. Ambitions plans have been announced to reshape financial regulation, there is a risk for these measures not to be well internationally coordinated
194.
195. New coal plant emissions equal all historic coal CO2 27% of remaining budget for 450 ppm 1751-2000 Total Coal New Coal Plants Lifetime Emissions – China, India, and U.S. Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004
196. Technologies of Today: Pacala & Socolow Pacala and Socolow demonstrated in their seminal work that currently available technologies could help dramatically reduce GHG emissions Efficient vehicles Reduced use of vehicles Efficient buildings Efficient baseload coal plants Gas baseload power for coal baseload power Capture CO2 at baseload power plant Capture CO2 at H2 plant Capture CO2 at coal-to-synfuels plant / Geological storage Nuclear power for coal power Wind power for coal power PV power for coal power Wind H2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline in hybrid car Biomass fuel for fossil fuel Reduced deforestation, plus reforestation, afforestation, and new plantations. Conservation tillage While some technologies are far from the commercialization phase, most of them are already available for scaling up and deployment Source: “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” Pacala & Socolow, Science, 205, 968 (2004); Wikipedia
197. 9 To achieve low carbon economic growthCleantech will have to live up to its promise Cleantech VC investment by Technology Global investment in Clean Energy ($USbn) 25% 29% 73% 54% 59% 5% 155 Solar 148 Third Party
Investment 93 Transportation Biofuels S/RP,
corp RD&D,
gov R&D 60 35 27 22 Wind Smart Grid Water Agriculture 2008 2007 2004 2003 2002 2006 2005 Q209 Q109 Q408 Q308 Q208 Q108 Q407 .. but growth rate slowed from 59% to 5% impacted by the macro economical climate Smart money moving to transportation and demand side technologies Source: cleanedge.com; cleantech venture network; UNEP, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009
198. Green stimulus as government initiated growth measure Green Stimulus by Region US green stimulus Green Stimulus Regional Spending ($US Billions) Green Stimulus Breakdown(TARP & American Recovery Plan) USD112bn UK Low Carbon Rail 5% Australia 9% Energy Efficiency Grid 32% Canada 11% France 14% Water Waste 29% Japan Renewable Germany China green stimulus EU Stimulus Package Breakdown (RMB4 Trillion) S. Korea Port Environment US Grid Airport China 25% 2% 14% Highway 22% Total additional spending of $430bn, 2.5x the total 2008 sector investment 20% Rail Housing Source: HSBC
199. Sovereign Wealth Funds SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS, IN US$ BILLIONS SWF DEALS BY TARGET REGION – 2008 $58 billion $26 billion 100% Rest of World $590 BRIC 8% North America 80% 40% $79 G7 Middle East & Africa 43% $1,400 Middle East 60% $700 Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Asia Pacific 40% 41% 17% $360 Other Europe TOTAL $3.2 TRILLION 20% Europe 31% Europe 19% $110 Rest of World 0% 2Q08 1Q08 Source: European Institute, Sovereign Wealth Funds Survey 2008, Oliver Wyman, Monitor Group
200. 2 The Future of SWFs SWF asset allocation: 2007 and 2012 (forecasted) 38% 32% 27% 25% 20% 2007 2012 16% 15% 12% 5% 5% 4% 1% Fixed Income Cash Other Alternatives Real Estate Private Equity Equity Source: European Institute, SWF Institute, OECD, Oliver Wyman, Bloomberg
201. Growing complexity and evolution to fill new economic niches Source: The Origin of Wealth, Eric D. Beinhocker, 2007
202. What will it take for Latin America and Africa to get on the wave? Corruption Perception Index, 2007
204. Tools Recent past Hubble Telescope Atomic Force Microscope MRI machines
205. Tools New Space Telescopes Large Hadron Collider and its successors Imaging live cells? Quantum Computers New ways of asking questions Metagenomics SETI at home Petabytes and beyond Manipulating very fast things Many new forms of sensors
206. Biology Fundamental Shift from Empirical to Rational Science Neurobiology Genetics Stem cells Synthetic biology Systemic science of disease Mathematical biology It’s all Physics + Water !
214. Test of a Good Scenario Not right or wrong Leads to better decisions
215. DecisionMaking Scenarios ExistingStrategies KnowledgeCreation EmergentStrategies The Strategic Conversation and Strategic Options Strategic conversation creates these flows and keeps these relationships healthy as an art, not a science
216. How Scenario Thinking is Used A tool for strategic alignment and communication across the organization A means of improving the “strategic conversation” A means of refining and testing assumptions for quantitative modeling decision making A “windtunnel” for existing strategy A means of developing and ranking strategic options
217. Scenario Thinking to overcome decision Traps Over confidence Thinking inside out Not seeing the whole story Framing the problem wrong Not asking the right questions
223. Core Robust Satellite Satellite Satellite Four approaches to placing Betsacross the Scenarios Bet the Farm Scenario A Scenario B Scenario D Scenario C
Editor's Notes
“SOFT” INTRODUCTIONThe global financial systems appears to have stabilized after having been very close to the brinkThere is a new normal with a structurally higher premium for risk in developed marketsFor developing countries, the new normal is less clear since risk premiums were also high a decade ago on the tail end of the currency crisis and the market is less liquid as a whole
Three distinct income-debt relations for economic units, which are labeled as hedge, speculative, and Ponzi finance, can be identified. Hedge financing units are those which can fulfill all of their contractual payment obligations by their cash flows: the greater the weight of equity financing in the liability structure, the greater the likelihood that the unit is a hedge financing unit. Speculative finance units are units that can meet their payment commitments on ‘income account’ on their liabilities, even as they cannot repay the principal out of income cash flows. Such units need to ‘roll over’ their liabilities (e.g., issue new debt to meet commitments on maturing debt).…For Ponzi units, the cash flows from operations are not sufficient to fulfill either the repayment of principal or the interest due on outstanding debts by their cash flows from operations. Such units can sell assets or borrow. Borrowing to pay interest or selling assets to pay interest (and even dividends) on common stock lowers the equity of a unit, even as it increases liabilities and the prior commitment of future incomes.…It can be shown that if hedge financing dominates, then the economy may well be an equilibrium-seeking and -containing system. In contrast, the greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi finance, the greater the likelihood that the economy is a deviation-amplifying system. The first theorem of the financial instability hypothesis is that the economy has financing regimes under which it is stable, and financing regimes in which it is unstable. The second theorem of the financial instability hypothesis is that over periods of prolonged prosperity, the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable system to financial relations that make for an unstable system.In particular, over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance. Furthermore, if an economy with a sizeable body of speculative financial units is in an inflationary state, and the authorities attempt to exorcise inflation by monetary constraint, then speculative units will become Ponzi units and the net worth of previously Ponzi units will quickly evaporate. Consequently, units with cash flow shortfalls will be forced to try to make position by selling out position. This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values.”
The rate of economic decline is slowingThis is in line with recent IMF statements:““The recovery is coming,” said Olivier Blanchard, IMF chief economist. But he cautioned “it is likely to be a weak recovery” and said policy-makers needed to guard against ongoing economic and financial risks”“The IMF now forecasts global growth of 2.5 per cent next year, up from 1.9 per cent in April, led by strong growth in China and India, a rebound in Japan and positive but sub-trend growth in the US. It upgraded its forecasts for Europe too, but still expects the eurozone to contract 0.3 per cent next year, with Germany declining 0.6 per cent.The Fund inched down its forecast for global growth this year to minus 1.4 per cent.”
POSSIBLE QUESTIONS FOR VOICE OVER:Definition of Stimulus – as used by HSBC – is additional programs dedicated to economic recovery. Some Mena government are spending more to stimulate economy but that’s not labeled Stimulus
A significant number of assets on balance sheets are still overvaluedThis is a key uncertainty and possible source of future shocksIf Goldman Sachs is right the banking system may be able to absorb these further writedowns with recapitalization and future retained earningsIf Roubini is right, further losses may exceed the capacity to cope -> further shock Latest statement by IMF in FT (07/07/09) when adjusting guidance for 2010 upwards:“The IMF did not update its estimates for losses facing banks. However, José Viñals, IMF financial counsellor, said it would be reasonable to guess that the figures would end up being lowered. He said markdowns on securities “would be likely to be somewhat better now” following the improvements in financial markets”
Liquidity is picking up but conventional wisdom is that prices have at least another 10% to dropWill the prices overshoot the trend line is another critical uncertaintyIf they do’ we’re in for another shock
US job losses are outpacing previous recessions.Two weeks ago was a disappointing jobs report, anotherJob losses have been relatively contained in Europe to date due to active policies like furlows, labor time reduction, etc but if the recession last longer the blow may still come (reference to economist article 06/20/09)
It is more likely than not that we’ll see more shocks, given all the uncertainties with regards to (a) unrecognized losses on the bank’s balance sheets, (b) bottom of the housing market (c) level and new role of speculation (d) other, yet undiscovered, financial interdependencies and liabilities (e) possibility of other shocks (food, pandemic, geo-political,…)The jury is out with regards to globalization, although there have been few outright protectionist measures there has definitely been (a) a protectionist slant to stimulus measures (b) a precipitous drop in trade and (c) the process of coordinated new regulation appears to be stalling
Note: A PUP (potentially unwanted program) includes spyware, adware, and dialers.Source: 2008 McAfee Virtual Criminology Report
Note: The range of numbers represents variations of the environment, harvesting method, and methods of water delivery
Chart on left:U.S. long-term securities include U.S. Treasury and Government agency bonds and notes, and U.S. corporate bonds and stocks as reportedto the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system. Europe does not include the United Kingdom.Asia includes: China Mainland; Hong Kong; India; Indonesia; Japan; South Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Taiwan; Thailand