The document provides an overview of the state of the global and Indian economies in light of the ongoing financial crisis. Key points include:
1) The IMF has downgraded its global GDP growth forecasts for 2008 and 2009 as major economies face recession. Emerging markets will also slow substantially.
2) Housing prices and industrial production continue to decline in the US and unemployment is rising sharply. Financial markets remain volatile.
3) India's growth is moderating but inflation is slowing. However, high deficits, slowing consumption and investments, and capital outflows pose challenges.
4) Global equity markets have seen large losses in 2008 on risk aversion. Indian markets are also highly volatile though the Sensex has
This presentation provides an updated overview of the state of global financial markets with a focus on the developments following the COVID-19 crisis and an assessment of market dynamics and downside risks
- Central banks around the world took unprecedented actions to provide liquidity and support financial markets as the COVID-19 pandemic caused turmoil. While short-term bank funding stabilized, corporate funding conditions remained strained, especially for lower-rated firms.
- Stock prices rose from their lows, but valuations are a concern given downward earnings forecasts. Bank equity prices fell on expected losses eroding profits. Sovereign and corporate debt risks rose for emerging markets.
- Uneven effects across sectors, with technology and healthcare more resilient than energy, retailers, and banks. Real estate investment trusts declined due to rental issues. Mortgage securities regained losses.
This presentation provides an updated overview of the state of global financial markets with a focus on the developments following the COVID-19 crisis and an assessment of market dynamics and downside risks. Find out more at www.oecd.org/finance
This presentation provides and overview of the state of global financial markets as of October 2020 with a focus on the developments following the COVID-19 crisis and an assessment of market dynamics and downside risks
Economic Prospects Challenges And Opportunities Lloyds Tsb Trevor WilliamsRoberto Grossi
The document summarizes the key economic challenges and opportunities facing the global economy in 2008. It identifies the credit crisis and rising inflation as the two main themes. The credit crisis stems from the bursting of the asset price bubble in the early 2000s, while rising inflation is due to strong global growth pushing up commodity demand. The implications are likely slower growth in developed economies, rising corporate insolvencies, and tighter monetary policy. Emerging markets will continue outperforming but face risks from high inflation.
The document discusses recent developments in global financial markets. It finds that while supportive monetary and fiscal policies are strengthening recovery prospects, growing vulnerabilities could impact growth. Accommodative policies have led to rising asset prices, debt, and leverage, increasing financial stability risks. Vulnerabilities in corporate debt markets and real estate sectors exposed to weak firms pose challenges. Rising emerging market debt also increases refinancing risks. The growth of alternative finance like crypto assets raises concerns of market corrections that could have broader implications.
Recent Developments in Global Financial Markets: Impact on TurkeyEren Ocakverdi
A concise background regarding the recent financial and regulatory developments in Europe and Turkey were provided from a practitioner’s point of view.
The document discusses the impact of COVID-19 on global financial markets and key risk transmission channels. It finds that equity markets plunged and volatility spiked due to growth concerns, though unprecedented policy support has helped stabilize markets. Corporate bond spreads widened and oil prices declined sharply. Policy responses have contributed to easier financial conditions, though transmission is uneven. Deteriorating corporate credit quality and high leverage, especially among riskier firms, increase downside risks as earnings decline. Stress testing shows more firms could face debt distress under a downside scenario. Rising risks are also seen in leveraged loans and CLO markets.
This presentation provides an updated overview of the state of global financial markets with a focus on the developments following the COVID-19 crisis and an assessment of market dynamics and downside risks
- Central banks around the world took unprecedented actions to provide liquidity and support financial markets as the COVID-19 pandemic caused turmoil. While short-term bank funding stabilized, corporate funding conditions remained strained, especially for lower-rated firms.
- Stock prices rose from their lows, but valuations are a concern given downward earnings forecasts. Bank equity prices fell on expected losses eroding profits. Sovereign and corporate debt risks rose for emerging markets.
- Uneven effects across sectors, with technology and healthcare more resilient than energy, retailers, and banks. Real estate investment trusts declined due to rental issues. Mortgage securities regained losses.
This presentation provides an updated overview of the state of global financial markets with a focus on the developments following the COVID-19 crisis and an assessment of market dynamics and downside risks. Find out more at www.oecd.org/finance
This presentation provides and overview of the state of global financial markets as of October 2020 with a focus on the developments following the COVID-19 crisis and an assessment of market dynamics and downside risks
Economic Prospects Challenges And Opportunities Lloyds Tsb Trevor WilliamsRoberto Grossi
The document summarizes the key economic challenges and opportunities facing the global economy in 2008. It identifies the credit crisis and rising inflation as the two main themes. The credit crisis stems from the bursting of the asset price bubble in the early 2000s, while rising inflation is due to strong global growth pushing up commodity demand. The implications are likely slower growth in developed economies, rising corporate insolvencies, and tighter monetary policy. Emerging markets will continue outperforming but face risks from high inflation.
The document discusses recent developments in global financial markets. It finds that while supportive monetary and fiscal policies are strengthening recovery prospects, growing vulnerabilities could impact growth. Accommodative policies have led to rising asset prices, debt, and leverage, increasing financial stability risks. Vulnerabilities in corporate debt markets and real estate sectors exposed to weak firms pose challenges. Rising emerging market debt also increases refinancing risks. The growth of alternative finance like crypto assets raises concerns of market corrections that could have broader implications.
Recent Developments in Global Financial Markets: Impact on TurkeyEren Ocakverdi
A concise background regarding the recent financial and regulatory developments in Europe and Turkey were provided from a practitioner’s point of view.
The document discusses the impact of COVID-19 on global financial markets and key risk transmission channels. It finds that equity markets plunged and volatility spiked due to growth concerns, though unprecedented policy support has helped stabilize markets. Corporate bond spreads widened and oil prices declined sharply. Policy responses have contributed to easier financial conditions, though transmission is uneven. Deteriorating corporate credit quality and high leverage, especially among riskier firms, increase downside risks as earnings decline. Stress testing shows more firms could face debt distress under a downside scenario. Rising risks are also seen in leveraged loans and CLO markets.
The triple transformation achieving a sustainable business modelIwan Suryadi
This document provides an executive summary of McKinsey's second annual review on the banking industry. It finds that while banks have increased capital levels, the sector still lacks a sustainable business model. Earnings declined in 2011 due to low interest rates and tighter regulation. Going forward, the environment will remain challenging with risks to performance outweighing positives. The report argues that banks need a "triple transformation" of their economics, business models, and culture in order to achieve sustainable returns.
Highlights of recent trends in financial marketsRajendar Madasi
Financial markets have broadly strengthened after weakening in late 2005. Stock markets grew strongly in Japan and Europe, backed by both foreign and domestic demand. The financial sector outperformed in Europe, with banks and insurers rebounding from hurricane losses. Corporate bond spreads remained stable in the US and Europe.
This report provides an evidence-based overview of developments in capital markets globally leading up to the COVID-19 crisis. It then documents the impact of the crisis on the use of capital markets and the introduction of temporary corporate governance measures.
This document summarizes the key findings of an OECD Investment Policy Review of Georgia. It discusses Georgia's efforts to improve its domestic regulatory framework to attract foreign direct investment. While Georgia has made significant reforms, it needs to deepen reforms to facilitate broad-based economic growth. The document also examines trends in FDI in Georgia, noting that inflows have plateaued after initial growth. It provides recommendations to promote sustainable investment in priority sectors like agriculture. Responsible business conduct is also discussed as important to Georgia's business environment.
This document is the October 2020 World Economic Outlook report published by the International Monetary Fund. It provides projections for the global economy following the severe downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as analysis of economic challenges and policy considerations. The report expects only a partial recovery in 2021 and estimates that the damage to supply potential could lower medium-term growth. It also discusses risks to the outlook, including the possibility of more severe downturns, and recommends near-term policy priorities of ensuring health resources and limiting economic damage, along with enhanced multilateral cooperation and policies to address long-term challenges.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2017 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
After a return to more expansionary monetary policies in early 2019, the world’s non-financial corporations borrowed an additional USD 2.1 trillion in the form of corporate bonds. In real terms, this is equivalent to the amount borrowed in the previous record year 2016 and represents a clear reversal of the decrease in corporate bond issuance during 2018. Adding the record borrowing during 2019 to the unprecedented build-up of corporate bond debt since 2008 means that the global outstanding stock of non-financial corporate bonds at the end of 2019 reached an all-time high of USD 13.5 trillion.
The new data in this OECD report, Corporate Bond Market Trends, Emerging Risks and Monetary Policy, shows that, in addition to its growing size, the quality and dynamics of the outstanding stock of corporate bonds have also changed. Compared with previous credit cycles, today’s stock of outstanding corporate bonds has lower overall credit quality, higher payback requirements, longer maturities and inferior covenant protection. These are features that may amplify the negative effects that an economic downturn would have on the non-financial corporate sector and the overall economy.
Find the full report at http://www.oecd.org/corporate/Corporate-Bond-Market-Trends-Emerging-Risks-and-Monetary-Policy.htm
This Review offers policy recommendations to improve the legal, regulatory and institutional framework for capital markets in Croatia in a way that will foster a resilient and dynamic business environment, help realise the potential of Croatian corporations and give households better opportunities to diversify their long-term savings.
The document summarizes key findings from the 2017 OECD Business and Finance Outlook report. It addresses 8 questions on issues related to globalization and the impact of technology and trade on middle-income jobs. The summary discusses how openness and a level global playing field are important for companies to innovate and gain productivity. However, some countries use subsidies, exchange rate management and pricing strategies to gain unfair export advantages over competitors. Overall, the document argues that non-transparent practices like these undermine open markets and fair global competition.
This document summarizes an investment webinar on cash management and fixed income assets in a low interest rate environment. Global interest rates are at historic lows, with rates on major currencies like the USD, GBP and EUR near or below 1%. This makes it difficult for trustees to achieve positive returns through cash investments. The document discusses options for cash management including money market funds and managing counterparty risk. It also covers the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures, the risks facing corporate bonds and banking sectors, and examples of fixed income portfolios that trustees could consider to pursue returns while managing risks.
Canada Life is a leading provider of life, pensions and investments in Ireland with over 100 years of experience. The Equity Dividend Fund is an actively managed equity portfolio that aims to hold about 40 stocks paying above average dividends, applying criteria like dividend yield, payout history, market cap and debt levels. Top holdings include BP, CRH and Sanofi-Aventis. The fund outperformed peer high yield equity funds in Q4 2010.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
The document provides an outlook on the global economy and investment markets for 2012. It notes that bond yields in major markets are at historic lows due to actions by central banks and weak economic growth. However, it warns that bond markets face potential risks in 2012. Specifically, large government debt maturing in 2012 could put pressure on yields if economies do not improve. Additionally, an unexpected rise in inflation could cause bond prices to drop sharply from current low levels. Overall the outlook suggests continued uncertainty around the Eurozone crisis and slowing global growth may lead to further volatility in financial markets in the coming year.
1. The global economy is slowing down, with growth easing in major advanced and emerging economies.
2. The euro area is experiencing a significant slowdown, with weak manufacturing output and slowing consumer spending affecting countries like Germany and Italy.
3. Escalating trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies as global trade growth has slowed, and the imposition of further US tariffs on China in May could end its brief recovery.
1. The global economy is slowing down, with growth forecasts being reduced.
2. Trade tensions between the US and China have deepened the slowdown and impacted exports, manufacturing, and investment most significantly.
3. Central banks have responded with interest rate cuts and quantitative easing programs, supporting stock markets after an August sell-off.
Client Alert: Brexit - The Impact on Cost of CapitalDuff & Phelps
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether to leave or remain as member of the European Union (EU). Against prior poll prediction, 51.9% of U.K. voters were in favor of leaving the EU, while 48.1% voted to remain a member. This decision is popularly known in the financial press as “Brexit”.
To assist in this discussion, on July 12, 2016, Duff & Phelps held the second of its Brexit webinar series entitled “The Impact on Cost of Capital,” featuring a panel of world-renowned cost of capital experts. The webcast focused on the challenges of estimating the cost of capital from the perspectives of U.S., U.K., and Eurozone investors in a post-Brexit world.
Quarterly reports - WIOF Global Listed Utilities FundKen Teale
1. Performance is calculated on I class shares of the WIOF Global Listed Utilities Fund, with management fees between 1.50% and 2.25% per annum. The fund's performance inception date is 31 July 2009 and it is benchmarked against the UBS Developed Infrastructure & Utilities Index, which is USD hedged and total return.
2. Over the quarter, the fund's share price increased by 3.6% compared to a 4.7% increase in the benchmark index. The underperformance was due to not holding positions in certain North American gas companies.
3. The outlook expects US economic growth to continue outperforming Europe in 2012 and the fund to maintain an overweight position in
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but extended its bond-buying program to the end of the year. Regulations are limiting the ability of banks to make loans and interest rates are not affecting the economy as a result. Spain may need up to €62 billion to recapitalize its banks, and Moody's downgraded several large global banks as part of a long-term review. Earnings forecasts continue to be cut as global economic problems remain unsolved.
The document appears to be notes from a finance class covering various topics:
- Fiscal and monetary policy responses to the recession in the US
- Current state of the global economy and Sunrise Trading's investment strategies
- Performance updates and analysis of positions in various stocks and markets
- Industry comparisons and recommendations for several companies
- Updates on bond and portfolio performance
It contains financial data, news, analyses and notes from different periods ranging from February to April 2010.
The Greek parliament passed additional austerity measures but Greece's debt remains unsustainable. The Troika acknowledged Greek debt is unsustainable and options like extending maturities or lowering interest rates could help. However, Greece will likely need more funds and its debt will exceed the 2020 target of 120% GDP. Further austerity has been associated with a 15% GDP decline making debt relief necessary to keep Greece in the eurozone.
The document discusses various macroeconomic policies and concepts including:
1. It discusses business cycles and how governments use stabilization policies like monetary and fiscal policy to prevent high unemployment and inflation during economic fluctuations.
2. It provides an overview of monetary policy and its objectives such as price stability and full employment. Fiscal policy objectives are also outlined.
3. Examples of monetary and fiscal policy tools to address inflation and deflation are provided such as increasing interest rates to reduce demand during inflation and tax cuts to stimulate demand during recession.
This document defines and explains key concepts related to national income, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP), Net National Product (NNP), National Income (NI), Personal Income (PI), Disposable Income (DI), and approaches to calculating national income such as the income, expenditure, and output approaches. It also discusses factors that determine national income, difficulties in calculating it, and uses of national income estimates.
The triple transformation achieving a sustainable business modelIwan Suryadi
This document provides an executive summary of McKinsey's second annual review on the banking industry. It finds that while banks have increased capital levels, the sector still lacks a sustainable business model. Earnings declined in 2011 due to low interest rates and tighter regulation. Going forward, the environment will remain challenging with risks to performance outweighing positives. The report argues that banks need a "triple transformation" of their economics, business models, and culture in order to achieve sustainable returns.
Highlights of recent trends in financial marketsRajendar Madasi
Financial markets have broadly strengthened after weakening in late 2005. Stock markets grew strongly in Japan and Europe, backed by both foreign and domestic demand. The financial sector outperformed in Europe, with banks and insurers rebounding from hurricane losses. Corporate bond spreads remained stable in the US and Europe.
This report provides an evidence-based overview of developments in capital markets globally leading up to the COVID-19 crisis. It then documents the impact of the crisis on the use of capital markets and the introduction of temporary corporate governance measures.
This document summarizes the key findings of an OECD Investment Policy Review of Georgia. It discusses Georgia's efforts to improve its domestic regulatory framework to attract foreign direct investment. While Georgia has made significant reforms, it needs to deepen reforms to facilitate broad-based economic growth. The document also examines trends in FDI in Georgia, noting that inflows have plateaued after initial growth. It provides recommendations to promote sustainable investment in priority sectors like agriculture. Responsible business conduct is also discussed as important to Georgia's business environment.
This document is the October 2020 World Economic Outlook report published by the International Monetary Fund. It provides projections for the global economy following the severe downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as analysis of economic challenges and policy considerations. The report expects only a partial recovery in 2021 and estimates that the damage to supply potential could lower medium-term growth. It also discusses risks to the outlook, including the possibility of more severe downturns, and recommends near-term policy priorities of ensuring health resources and limiting economic damage, along with enhanced multilateral cooperation and policies to address long-term challenges.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2017 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
After a return to more expansionary monetary policies in early 2019, the world’s non-financial corporations borrowed an additional USD 2.1 trillion in the form of corporate bonds. In real terms, this is equivalent to the amount borrowed in the previous record year 2016 and represents a clear reversal of the decrease in corporate bond issuance during 2018. Adding the record borrowing during 2019 to the unprecedented build-up of corporate bond debt since 2008 means that the global outstanding stock of non-financial corporate bonds at the end of 2019 reached an all-time high of USD 13.5 trillion.
The new data in this OECD report, Corporate Bond Market Trends, Emerging Risks and Monetary Policy, shows that, in addition to its growing size, the quality and dynamics of the outstanding stock of corporate bonds have also changed. Compared with previous credit cycles, today’s stock of outstanding corporate bonds has lower overall credit quality, higher payback requirements, longer maturities and inferior covenant protection. These are features that may amplify the negative effects that an economic downturn would have on the non-financial corporate sector and the overall economy.
Find the full report at http://www.oecd.org/corporate/Corporate-Bond-Market-Trends-Emerging-Risks-and-Monetary-Policy.htm
This Review offers policy recommendations to improve the legal, regulatory and institutional framework for capital markets in Croatia in a way that will foster a resilient and dynamic business environment, help realise the potential of Croatian corporations and give households better opportunities to diversify their long-term savings.
The document summarizes key findings from the 2017 OECD Business and Finance Outlook report. It addresses 8 questions on issues related to globalization and the impact of technology and trade on middle-income jobs. The summary discusses how openness and a level global playing field are important for companies to innovate and gain productivity. However, some countries use subsidies, exchange rate management and pricing strategies to gain unfair export advantages over competitors. Overall, the document argues that non-transparent practices like these undermine open markets and fair global competition.
This document summarizes an investment webinar on cash management and fixed income assets in a low interest rate environment. Global interest rates are at historic lows, with rates on major currencies like the USD, GBP and EUR near or below 1%. This makes it difficult for trustees to achieve positive returns through cash investments. The document discusses options for cash management including money market funds and managing counterparty risk. It also covers the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures, the risks facing corporate bonds and banking sectors, and examples of fixed income portfolios that trustees could consider to pursue returns while managing risks.
Canada Life is a leading provider of life, pensions and investments in Ireland with over 100 years of experience. The Equity Dividend Fund is an actively managed equity portfolio that aims to hold about 40 stocks paying above average dividends, applying criteria like dividend yield, payout history, market cap and debt levels. Top holdings include BP, CRH and Sanofi-Aventis. The fund outperformed peer high yield equity funds in Q4 2010.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
The document provides an outlook on the global economy and investment markets for 2012. It notes that bond yields in major markets are at historic lows due to actions by central banks and weak economic growth. However, it warns that bond markets face potential risks in 2012. Specifically, large government debt maturing in 2012 could put pressure on yields if economies do not improve. Additionally, an unexpected rise in inflation could cause bond prices to drop sharply from current low levels. Overall the outlook suggests continued uncertainty around the Eurozone crisis and slowing global growth may lead to further volatility in financial markets in the coming year.
1. The global economy is slowing down, with growth easing in major advanced and emerging economies.
2. The euro area is experiencing a significant slowdown, with weak manufacturing output and slowing consumer spending affecting countries like Germany and Italy.
3. Escalating trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies as global trade growth has slowed, and the imposition of further US tariffs on China in May could end its brief recovery.
1. The global economy is slowing down, with growth forecasts being reduced.
2. Trade tensions between the US and China have deepened the slowdown and impacted exports, manufacturing, and investment most significantly.
3. Central banks have responded with interest rate cuts and quantitative easing programs, supporting stock markets after an August sell-off.
Client Alert: Brexit - The Impact on Cost of CapitalDuff & Phelps
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether to leave or remain as member of the European Union (EU). Against prior poll prediction, 51.9% of U.K. voters were in favor of leaving the EU, while 48.1% voted to remain a member. This decision is popularly known in the financial press as “Brexit”.
To assist in this discussion, on July 12, 2016, Duff & Phelps held the second of its Brexit webinar series entitled “The Impact on Cost of Capital,” featuring a panel of world-renowned cost of capital experts. The webcast focused on the challenges of estimating the cost of capital from the perspectives of U.S., U.K., and Eurozone investors in a post-Brexit world.
Quarterly reports - WIOF Global Listed Utilities FundKen Teale
1. Performance is calculated on I class shares of the WIOF Global Listed Utilities Fund, with management fees between 1.50% and 2.25% per annum. The fund's performance inception date is 31 July 2009 and it is benchmarked against the UBS Developed Infrastructure & Utilities Index, which is USD hedged and total return.
2. Over the quarter, the fund's share price increased by 3.6% compared to a 4.7% increase in the benchmark index. The underperformance was due to not holding positions in certain North American gas companies.
3. The outlook expects US economic growth to continue outperforming Europe in 2012 and the fund to maintain an overweight position in
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but extended its bond-buying program to the end of the year. Regulations are limiting the ability of banks to make loans and interest rates are not affecting the economy as a result. Spain may need up to €62 billion to recapitalize its banks, and Moody's downgraded several large global banks as part of a long-term review. Earnings forecasts continue to be cut as global economic problems remain unsolved.
The document appears to be notes from a finance class covering various topics:
- Fiscal and monetary policy responses to the recession in the US
- Current state of the global economy and Sunrise Trading's investment strategies
- Performance updates and analysis of positions in various stocks and markets
- Industry comparisons and recommendations for several companies
- Updates on bond and portfolio performance
It contains financial data, news, analyses and notes from different periods ranging from February to April 2010.
The Greek parliament passed additional austerity measures but Greece's debt remains unsustainable. The Troika acknowledged Greek debt is unsustainable and options like extending maturities or lowering interest rates could help. However, Greece will likely need more funds and its debt will exceed the 2020 target of 120% GDP. Further austerity has been associated with a 15% GDP decline making debt relief necessary to keep Greece in the eurozone.
The document discusses various macroeconomic policies and concepts including:
1. It discusses business cycles and how governments use stabilization policies like monetary and fiscal policy to prevent high unemployment and inflation during economic fluctuations.
2. It provides an overview of monetary policy and its objectives such as price stability and full employment. Fiscal policy objectives are also outlined.
3. Examples of monetary and fiscal policy tools to address inflation and deflation are provided such as increasing interest rates to reduce demand during inflation and tax cuts to stimulate demand during recession.
This document defines and explains key concepts related to national income, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP), Net National Product (NNP), National Income (NI), Personal Income (PI), Disposable Income (DI), and approaches to calculating national income such as the income, expenditure, and output approaches. It also discusses factors that determine national income, difficulties in calculating it, and uses of national income estimates.
The Socio-Economic Roots of Poverty (gilpp_2013)Prabhu Guptara
Explores whether the roots of poverty are social and cultural? And, if so, whether the kinds of economic initiatives we follow at present, have any real chance of eliminating poverty? Further, what kinds of initiatives can in fact eliminate poverty and produce the kind of development that most humans would recognise as worthwhile?
This document discusses different types of unemployment including frictional, seasonal, cyclical, and structural unemployment. It also discusses how the unemployment rate is measured and defines terms like underemployment. It then covers inflation including definitions of inflation, how it is determined using price indices like CPI and PPI, and common causes of inflation. Finally, it defines poverty, discusses poverty thresholds and rates, and lists some common causes of poverty like lack of education, location, and family structures.
The document discusses poverty, defining it as a lack of financial resources to enjoy a minimum standard of living. It identifies types of poverty such as income poverty, non-income poverty, situational poverty, and generational poverty. Causes of poverty mentioned include lack of education, unemployment, materialism, low capital formation, improper income distribution, and inflation. Effects include increased risk of health problems, homelessness, crime, and terrorism. Solutions proposed are guaranteeing basic needs, providing healthcare and education, controlling overpopulation, reducing taxes, increasing employment opportunities, and developing agriculture and industry.
Poverty is defined as a financial condition where people cannot maintain a minimum standard of living due to inadequate income. Unemployment also plays a role in poverty by reducing employment opportunities and income. According to recent Indian government estimates, approximately 38% of India's population, or 380 million people, live in poverty conditions as defined by the money required to purchase 2100 calories of food in urban areas or 2400 calories in rural areas.
Poverty and unemployment in india by Abhishek Lahiryabhisheklahiry
The document discusses the concepts of poverty and unemployment in India, their relationship, and efforts to reduce them. It provides historical data showing that poverty in India peaked in the 1960s and has declined since economic reforms in the 1990s, but still impacts hundreds of millions who lack basic necessities. Unemployment rates average around 9% and are caused by factors like population growth, low agricultural productivity, and lack of skills training. Several government programs have aimed to reduce poverty through rural development, employment guarantees, and self-employment initiatives, but more remains to be done to educate citizens and implement effective policies.
Concept of National Income with GDP GNP NNP& NDPAnkit Singh
It is the detailed study of National Income in a macro economics of a country with the methods of its measurement and concepts related to it like Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, Net Domestic Product, Net National Product.
The document defines and explains the balance of payments (BOP) which records financial transactions between a country and others. It discusses the current account, capital and financial account, and official settlements account. It then explains key aspects of the BOP including trade balances, factor incomes, and capital accounts. It defines various BOP terms like surplus, deficit, and discusses causes of deficits like high income elasticity of demand for imports and de-industrialization leading to declining manufacturing capacity.
National income is defined as the value of all final goods and services produced by the normal residents of a country in a year. It is measured to understand the size and performance of a country's economy, trace economic growth trends, know the structure of the national income, and help formulate development plans and policies. National income is calculated using the production, income, and expenditure methods and aggregates at current and constant prices. It is important but does not fully reflect human development or income distribution.
Economic planning in India began in 1950 to address issues like poverty, low income, population growth, and problems from the country's partition. The Planning Commission oversees five-year plans that aim to boost economic growth, reduce inequality, spur modernization and development, and generate employment. The 11th five-year plan seeks to double per capita income by 2017 through 10% annual GDP growth, raise farm output, cut unemployment, and improve literacy, women's status, the environment, and other social indicators.
The document discusses market structures and perfect competition. It defines a market and provides quotes defining a market. It then discusses the characteristics of perfect competition, including large numbers of buyers and sellers, homogeneous products, and perfect information. Equilibrium for a firm under perfect competition occurs where marginal cost equals marginal revenue and the marginal cost curve cuts the marginal revenue curve from below.
The document discusses business cycles, unemployment, inflation, and the Philippine experience. It covers theories of business cycles and the different phases. It also defines unemployment and inflation, and discusses the government's policies in response to the Philippine recession in the 1980s to promote economic recovery.
The Balance of Payments is a systematic record of all economic transactions between residents of a country and the rest of the world over a given period of time. It is a double-entry accounting statement that records a nation's exports and imports of goods and services, as well as financial capital inflows and outflows. Maintaining a balanced Balance of Payments is important for a stable economy, so nations aim to reduce deficits through policies targeting exports, imports, currency values, and international capital flows.
The balance of payments is a record of all economic transactions between a country and the rest of the world over a period of time. It includes exports and imports of visible goods as well as invisible items like services, capital inflows and outflows. The balance of payments statement has a current account, which covers trade in goods and services, and a capital account. India's balance of payments was positive in the early five-year plans but turned negative later as imports grew.
This document provides an overview of balance of payments (BOP) accounting. It defines BOP as a systematic record of all economic transactions between a country and the rest of the world. It notes that BOP has three main components: the current account balance, capital account balance, and the overall BOP. The current account tracks goods/services exports and imports, while the capital account tracks financial flows. The document also discusses factors that can cause BOP disequilibriums and monetary/non-monetary policy tools to correct imbalances, such as devaluation, export promotion, and tariffs.
perfect competition, monopoly, monopolistic and oligopolysandypkapoor
Price determination under different market structure and characterstics of all these market stractures along with graphical presentation of Perfect competition, Monopoly, Monopolistic and Oligopoly market structue
This document discusses different types of market structures: pure competition, monopoly, monopolistic competition, and oligopoly. It provides key characteristics of each structure, including the number and size of buyers and sellers, product differentiation, barriers to entry/exit, and pricing behavior. Pure competition has many small firms and sellers producing homogeneous products. A monopoly has a single seller of unique products with no close substitutes. Monopolistic competition features many firms making differentiated products. Oligopoly involves a small number of large firms producing standardized or differentiated goods.
The selling environment in which a firm produces and sells its product is called a market structure.*
Defined by three characteristics:
The number of firms in the market
The ease of entry and exit of firms
The degree of product differentiation
The document summarizes the state of the US and global economy during the financial crisis. It discusses how the crisis unfolded in phases from subprime mortgages to a liquidity and then solvency crisis. Government intervention increased but unemployment rose and the housing, stock, and banking markets declined sharply. Banks increased risky lending and are now undercapitalized with high losses. The outlook calls for a long recession with tight credit and reduced lending until balance sheets improve.
The document summarizes the state of the US economy and financial markets during the global financial crisis. It discusses how the crisis unfolded in phases from the subprime mortgage crisis to a liquidity and then solvency crisis. Key points covered include a decline in home prices and equity, rising unemployment, bank losses and failures, and unprecedented government intervention to stabilize the financial system.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
The magnificent 7 and equity markets review 11Markets Beyond
2011 was a bumby year for financial markets and 2012 will be no less hectic. However the US economic picture is improving and as written in early 2011 no double dip to be expected but for FED policy folly.
Global imbalances remain, but the eurozone is where lies the deepest problems which have not been properly addressed.
Remain invested in high yielding equities / net cash companies with a strong franchise and look at strong brands in fast growing economies; stay clear from the bond market and financials.
During the months following the global recession, many economists (including ones from this organisation) discussed the possibility of a double dip recession. Between the European debt crisis and the US’s high unemployment rate, it seemed likely that the global economy would slip back into recession territory. However, with the exception of the US, recent global economic performance has been better than expected. Fiscal and monetary policy in most countries remains supportive of growth and although another global slowdown looks inevitable, a relapse into recession is unlikely. The Economist Intelligence Unit explains the likelihood of a double dip recesssion in this presentation.
The document summarizes the subprime mortgage crisis and its global impacts. It began with loose lending practices in the US that led to a housing bubble. When housing prices declined and borrowers defaulted, it sparked a financial crisis as risky loans were bundled into securities that spread the risks throughout the global financial system. Major banks and financial institutions collapsed. Credit tightened globally and stock markets plunged significantly. The crisis also impacted economies worldwide through tightening credit, falling markets, and reduced trade and business activity. While government interventions helped stabilize markets, full recovery will take time as the financial systems remain fragile.
The document provides an analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 from an international business perspective. It begins with an introduction to the crisis and its causes such as subprime lending and the growth of the housing bubble. It then analyzes the effects on financial markets, the global economy, and the US economic effects including declines in GDP, wealth, and economic projections. The crisis spread from the US to Europe and impacted stock markets, financial institutions, credit markets and the shadow banking system. While governments took action to intervene and prevent further deterioration, the crisis remained one of the most devastating since the Great Depression.
This document summarizes the risks facing the modern global economic system. It outlines several macroeconomic risks such as uneven global growth and emerging market vulnerabilities. It also discusses risks from changes in monetary policy like the tapering of quantitative easing. Several negative internal factors are mentioned like the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the property bubble in China. However, some positive internal factors may help like improved risk management and regulation. The document examines the potential effects of these risks, like reversals of capital flows to emerging markets and rising emerging market risk premiums. Charts show trends in government and private debt levels that could exacerbate problems. The conclusion discusses the possibility of high yield bond defaults and liquidity crises without reforms and coordination between institutions.
Why we will not experience a DepressionGaetan Lion
- The document discusses how government interventions on an unprecedented scale, including fiscal stimulus packages, monetary policy actions, and financial industry bailouts, will help prevent another Great Depression.
- During the Great Depression, bad government policies exacerbated the situation, but current interventions aim to stimulate the economy and stabilize financial markets.
- Corporations, small businesses, and households have strong financial positions and ability to finance themselves, giving government policies time to take effect before a depression could occur.
The document summarizes the global economic recession and provides an outlook for the US and global economies. It notes that the recession began in the US and spread internationally, with falling global demand. The US economy is expected to experience a sharp contraction, with declines in housing, consumer spending and business investment. Government stimulus policies are intended to help stabilize financial markets and boost demand. The outlook calls for continued declines in early 2009, but a gradual recovery beginning in late 2009, led initially by the US economy.
Charting the Financial Crisis: A Narrative eBookShavondaBrandon
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
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The document provides an update on the fixed income markets in April 2010. It discusses the problems facing Greece and other European countries, and the impact on the euro. Domestically, most economic data was positive and the housing market showed signs of recovery. Treasury yields fell during the month due to concerns around Europe. Spreads tightened further for corporate bonds.
This document provides an overview of the global financial crisis that began in 2008. It discusses the underlying factors such as easy credit conditions, international trade imbalances, and the bursting of real estate bubbles. It outlines some of the key events in the United States and Europe, such as the failures of Lehman Brothers, AIG, and other large financial institutions. It also summarizes the immediate effects on the economies of the US and UK, including rising unemployment, slowing GDP growth, and falling consumer confidence. Finally, it discusses the impact on and response of the Indian economy, including consequences for exports, the stock market, currency value, inflation, and economic growth.
The Federal Reserve took several steps to address the US credit crisis, including establishing new lending facilities to provide banks with liquidity and lower interest rates. The Term Auction Facility, Term Securities Lending Facility, Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and Commercial Paper Funding Facility allowed banks and dealers to borrow directly from the Fed. The Fed also lowered interest rate targets and expanded currency swaps with other central banks to ease global credit. However, the responses failed to prevent high inflation and a weaker dollar, and may have increased moral hazard risk.
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The global financial system experienced a major shock due to the subprime mortgage crisis that spread worldwide. Central banks took unprecedented actions to provide liquidity and cut interest rates. Major financial institutions collapsed or were bailed out by governments. The crisis led to a steep recession and continued high unemployment. While government stimulus programs boosted many economies, the global recovery remains fragile with the potential for new shocks.
Main news related to the CCS TSI 2023 (2023/1695)Jakub Marek
An English 🇬🇧 translation of a presentation to the speech I gave about the main changes brought by CCS TSI 2023 at the biggest Czech conference on Communications and signalling systems on Railways, which was held in Clarion Hotel Olomouc from 7th to 9th November 2023 (konferenceszt.cz). Attended by around 500 participants and 200 on-line followers.
The original Czech 🇨🇿 version of the presentation can be found here: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/hlavni-novinky-souvisejici-s-ccs-tsi-2023-2023-1695/269688092 .
The videorecording (in Czech) from the presentation is available here: https://youtu.be/WzjJWm4IyPk?si=SImb06tuXGb30BEH .
How to Interpret Trends in the Kalyan Rajdhani Mix Chart.pdfChart Kalyan
A Mix Chart displays historical data of numbers in a graphical or tabular form. The Kalyan Rajdhani Mix Chart specifically shows the results of a sequence of numbers over different periods.
Salesforce Integration for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutions A...Jeffrey Haguewood
Sidekick Solutions uses Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutions Apricot) and automation solutions to integrate data for business workflows.
We believe integration and automation are essential to user experience and the promise of efficient work through technology. Automation is the critical ingredient to realizing that full vision. We develop integration products and services for Bonterra Case Management software to support the deployment of automations for a variety of use cases.
This video focuses on integration of Salesforce with Bonterra Impact Management.
Interested in deploying an integration with Salesforce for Bonterra Impact Management? Contact us at sales@sidekicksolutionsllc.com to discuss next steps.
Trusted Execution Environment for Decentralized Process MiningLucaBarbaro3
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leewayhertz.com-AI in predictive maintenance Use cases technologies benefits ...alexjohnson7307
Predictive maintenance is a proactive approach that anticipates equipment failures before they happen. At the forefront of this innovative strategy is Artificial Intelligence (AI), which brings unprecedented precision and efficiency. AI in predictive maintenance is transforming industries by reducing downtime, minimizing costs, and enhancing productivity.
Have you ever been confused by the myriad of choices offered by AWS for hosting a website or an API?
Lambda, Elastic Beanstalk, Lightsail, Amplify, S3 (and more!) can each host websites + APIs. But which one should we choose?
Which one is cheapest? Which one is fastest? Which one will scale to meet our needs?
Join me in this session as we dive into each AWS hosting service to determine which one is best for your scenario and explain why!
Digital Marketing Trends in 2024 | Guide for Staying AheadWask
https://www.wask.co/ebooks/digital-marketing-trends-in-2024
Feeling lost in the digital marketing whirlwind of 2024? Technology is changing, consumer habits are evolving, and staying ahead of the curve feels like a never-ending pursuit. This e-book is your compass. Dive into actionable insights to handle the complexities of modern marketing. From hyper-personalization to the power of user-generated content, learn how to build long-term relationships with your audience and unlock the secrets to success in the ever-shifting digital landscape.
Programming Foundation Models with DSPy - Meetup SlidesZilliz
Prompting language models is hard, while programming language models is easy. In this talk, I will discuss the state-of-the-art framework DSPy for programming foundation models with its powerful optimizers and runtime constraint system.
HCL Notes and Domino License Cost Reduction in the World of DLAUpanagenda
Webinar Recording: https://www.panagenda.com/webinars/hcl-notes-and-domino-license-cost-reduction-in-the-world-of-dlau/
The introduction of DLAU and the CCB & CCX licensing model caused quite a stir in the HCL community. As a Notes and Domino customer, you may have faced challenges with unexpected user counts and license costs. You probably have questions on how this new licensing approach works and how to benefit from it. Most importantly, you likely have budget constraints and want to save money where possible. Don’t worry, we can help with all of this!
We’ll show you how to fix common misconfigurations that cause higher-than-expected user counts, and how to identify accounts which you can deactivate to save money. There are also frequent patterns that can cause unnecessary cost, like using a person document instead of a mail-in for shared mailboxes. We’ll provide examples and solutions for those as well. And naturally we’ll explain the new licensing model.
Join HCL Ambassador Marc Thomas in this webinar with a special guest appearance from Franz Walder. It will give you the tools and know-how to stay on top of what is going on with Domino licensing. You will be able lower your cost through an optimized configuration and keep it low going forward.
These topics will be covered
- Reducing license cost by finding and fixing misconfigurations and superfluous accounts
- How do CCB and CCX licenses really work?
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- Tips for common problem areas, like team mailboxes, functional/test users, etc
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Nunit vs XUnit vs MSTest Differences Between These Unit Testing Frameworks.pdfflufftailshop
When it comes to unit testing in the .NET ecosystem, developers have a wide range of options available. Among the most popular choices are NUnit, XUnit, and MSTest. These unit testing frameworks provide essential tools and features to help ensure the quality and reliability of code. However, understanding the differences between these frameworks is crucial for selecting the most suitable one for your projects.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of technologies, XML continues to play a vital role in structuring, storing, and transporting data across diverse systems. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present new methodologies for enhancing XML development workflows, introducing efficiency, automation, and intelligent capabilities. This presentation will outline the scope and perspective of utilizing AI in XML development. The potential benefits and the possible pitfalls will be highlighted, providing a balanced view of the subject.
We will explore the capabilities of AI in understanding XML markup languages and autonomously creating structured XML content. Additionally, we will examine the capacity of AI to enrich plain text with appropriate XML markup. Practical examples and methodological guidelines will be provided to elucidate how AI can be effectively prompted to interpret and generate accurate XML markup.
Further emphasis will be placed on the role of AI in developing XSLT, or schemas such as XSD and Schematron. We will address the techniques and strategies adopted to create prompts for generating code, explaining code, or refactoring the code, and the results achieved.
The discussion will extend to how AI can be used to transform XML content. In particular, the focus will be on the use of AI XPath extension functions in XSLT, Schematron, Schematron Quick Fixes, or for XML content refactoring.
The presentation aims to deliver a comprehensive overview of AI usage in XML development, providing attendees with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Whether you’re at the early stages of adopting AI or considering integrating it in advanced XML development, this presentation will cover all levels of expertise.
By highlighting the potential advantages and challenges of integrating AI with XML development tools and languages, the presentation seeks to inspire thoughtful conversation around the future of XML development. We’ll not only delve into the technical aspects of AI-powered XML development but also discuss practical implications and possible future directions.
Skybuffer AI: Advanced Conversational and Generative AI Solution on SAP Busin...Tatiana Kojar
Skybuffer AI, built on the robust SAP Business Technology Platform (SAP BTP), is the latest and most advanced version of our AI development, reaffirming our commitment to delivering top-tier AI solutions. Skybuffer AI harnesses all the innovative capabilities of the SAP BTP in the AI domain, from Conversational AI to cutting-edge Generative AI and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). It also helps SAP customers safeguard their investments into SAP Conversational AI and ensure a seamless, one-click transition to SAP Business AI.
With Skybuffer AI, various AI models can be integrated into a single communication channel such as Microsoft Teams. This integration empowers business users with insights drawn from SAP backend systems, enterprise documents, and the expansive knowledge of Generative AI. And the best part of it is that it is all managed through our intuitive no-code Action Server interface, requiring no extensive coding knowledge and making the advanced AI accessible to more users.
Generating privacy-protected synthetic data using Secludy and MilvusZilliz
During this demo, the founders of Secludy will demonstrate how their system utilizes Milvus to store and manipulate embeddings for generating privacy-protected synthetic data. Their approach not only maintains the confidentiality of the original data but also enhances the utility and scalability of LLMs under privacy constraints. Attendees, including machine learning engineers, data scientists, and data managers, will witness first-hand how Secludy's integration with Milvus empowers organizations to harness the power of LLMs securely and efficiently.
3. World economy to slow down considerably
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook November 2008
Note: Annual percentage changes in GDP for 2008 and 2009 are IMF estimated numbers
After recording strong growth for four years, global economy is heading towards a downturn led by advanced
economies. IMF has estimated a World GDP growth of 3.7% for 2008 and 2.2% for 2009.
4. US economy weakening…
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States
Note: Percentage changes in GDP are over the corresponding period in the previous year. Q3-2008 numbers are preliminary estimates
Experts including Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke now believe that the weakness in the US economy
may continue through 2009. A U-shaped recovery seems to be the most likely scenario.
5. …and so are other developed economies
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook November 2008
Note: GDP growth is over the previous year. Growth for 2008 and 2009 are IMF projections
With credit crisis spreading to Europe and Japan, those economies may also suffer a setback in terms of GDP
growth. IMF forecasts that almost all advanced economies may now go into a recession.
6. Emerging Economies shall also slowdown
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook November 2008
Note: GDP growth is over the previous year. Growth for 2008 and 2009 are IMF projections
Economic growth in emerging economies shall also slow down as per IMF estimates. IMF in its November 2008
outlook has projected India’s real GDP growth to come down to 6.3 percent in 2009.
7. Home Prices in US continue their decline
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Note: Composite CSXR is a composite index of the home price index for the top 10 Metropolitan Statistical Area's in the United
States . S&P Case-Shiller Composite 20 is a value-weighted average of 20 metro area indices.
The S&P Case-Shiller Indices have corrected by approximately 20% from their peaks in June-July 2006. The home
prices continue to correct as there is an oversupply situation in residential market in US.
8. Falling Home Prices, Rising Foreclosures in US
Source: Foreclosure Filings are from RealtyTrac, US. Case-Shiller Index values are from Standard & Poor’s
Note: S&P Case-Shiller Composite 20 is a value-weighted average of 20 metro area indices
As the home prices started falling and mortgage rates resetted at higher levels, the interest burden on home-
owners increased. The sub-prime borrowers failed to refinance their loans and hence foreclosed their mortgages.
9. Rising Unemployment in US is hurting Consumption
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States
Note: The unemployment data is seasonally adjusted
Rapid rise in unemployment in US is bothering both Fed and the President-elect Barack Obama. Mr. Bernanke in
his several testimonies has quoted that unemployment scenario is going to get worse before it gets better.
10. Tale of “The Crisis” using CBOE VIX
Source: Internal Research
11. Tale of “The Crisis” using CBOE VIX
I.
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac placed into a conservatorship run by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
Bank of America announces plans to acquire Merrill Lynch. Lehman Brothers files for Chapter 11 protection,
marking the largest bankruptcy in US history.
American International Group (AIG) scrambles for capital after rating downgrades. Federal Reserve announces
creation of credit facility of up to $85 billion for AIG.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley become bank holding companies. NY Fed immediately provides access of
bank’s broker dealer arms to Fed’s Primary Dealer Credit facility.
JP Morgan Chase announces plans to acquire Washington Mutual.
House of Representatives reject the US$ 700 billion bailout plan (asset purchase legislation).
Citigroup announces plans to acquire Wachovia’s banking operations for US$ 1/share. Wells Fargo enters the
fray and raises the bid to US$ 7/share.
Sub-prime crisis spreads to Europe - HBOS, Hypo Real Estate and Fortis fail. HBOS acquired by Llyods TSB,
Hypo Real Estate rescued by German government and Fortis is nationalized before being acquired by BNP
Paribas.
12. Tale of “The Crisis” using CBOE VIX
I.
US Senate and House of Representatives approve Troubled Assets Repurchase Program (TARP). The legislation is
called Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.
G-7 meeting results into a slew of measures being taken by the Central banks across the world. Fed authorizes swap
lines of unlimited extent with BoE, ECB, SNB and BoJ to ensure sufficient dollar supply.
Coordinated rate cuts by central banks. Fed, ECB, BoE, Sweden, Canada, Switzerland cut their benchmark rates by
50 bps, Chinese central bank by 27 bps and Australian central bank by 100 bps.
After Ireland guarantees all its deposits, Germany, Denmark, Austria announced that they will also protect their
savers and guarantee deposits. Many governments announce a guarantee on the interbank deposits and new debt.
Fed announces to buy commercial paper directly from the corporates to keep the credit growth buoyant.
Several emerging economies including Pakistan, Belarus, Hungary etc. having high current account deficits
approach IMF for assistance.
South Korea announces a package of US$ 130 billion to guarantee foreign exchange debt.
Federal Reserve cuts the target rate by 50 bps to 1%. Bank of England cuts its benchmark rate by 150 bps to 3%
while ECB cuts its rates by 50 bps.
China announces an economic stimulus package of US$ 586 billion to be spent on Infrastructure till 2010.
13. It’s a Crisis of Confidence more than anything else
Source: US Federal Reserve
The yield of three-month US Treasury Bill almost dropped to zero after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The
crisis has resulted in huge money shifting into US Treasury thus driving the yields to an all-time low.
14. LIBOR shooting up signifies risk aversion
Source: British Bankers Association
Note: These are US dollar LIBOR rates
The credit crisis has led to a liquidity squeeze. Financial Institutions are not lending to each other because of the
fear of default by the counterparty. This has led to the LIBOR shooting to decade-high levels.
15. Corporate bond spreads in US have shot to all-time highs
Source: US Federal Reserve
The corporate bond spreads (both AAA and BAA with 10-year US Treasury) have shot up significantly in the last 8-
10 months. The average spread of AAA in the last 55 years has been 77 bps (as compared to 196 bps at end-
September 2008) while that of BAA has been 173 bps (as compared to 362 bps at end-September 2008).
16. Sub-prime related losses
Source: Financial Times, October 1, 2008.
Note: The data is collated and updated by Bloomberg till September 30, 2008.
The total sub-prime losses/write-downs estimated by Bloomberg as on September 30, 2008 stand at US$ 586 billion.
Experts believe the losses could top US$ 1 trillion going forward.
18. Global Inflation
Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, October 2008
Relentless rise in crude and commodity prices through 2007 and in the first half of 2008 made stagflation a potential
threat. With expectations of a global economic slowdown firming up, commodity prices have corrected to factor in
the demand destruction that may happen because of lower growth. Economists argue that global economy may get
into a stag deflation kind of a period in the short to medium term.
19. Coordinated efforts by Central Banks
Note: Federal Reserve funds rate, Bank of England bank rate, ECB target refinancing rate, Bank of Japan Target rate and People’s
Bank of China one-year lending rate
Central banks across the globe have responded to the crisis in a coordinated fashion and cut their benchmark rates.
They are also pumping money into the system, capitalizing their banks and guaranteeing deposits.
21. Indian GDP growth shall moderate
Source: Central Statistical Organization, National Accounts
India’s real GDP growth is set to moderate in 2008-09. The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has
forecasted a growth of 7.7 percent for this fiscal. Various estimates put the growth between 7-8 percent.
22. High Inflation…
Source: Office of Economic Advisor
Note: 2008-09 weekly averages till week ending October 25, 2008. Inflation over the corresponding period last year
From the peak of 12.63%, Inflation in India has moderated to 8.98% for the week ending November 1, 2008.
Good monsoon and sharp correction in global commodity prices have brought down the inflation expectations.
23. …forced RBI to tighten the monetary policy
Source: Reserve Bank of India
RBI remained extremely hawkish on Inflation till August 2008. However, as the prices of commodities came off
their highs and global liquidity situation deteriorated, RBI in the month of October aggressively cut CRR and Repo
rate. On November 1, a lot of other monetary measures including reduction of SLR were announced.
24. …which has adversely impacted the Industrial growth
Source: Central Statistical Organization, India
Monthly IIP growth has remained extremely volatile during this calendar year. However, there is no denial that IIP
is in a clear downtrend. Now that IIP is falling, experts including Finance Minister have raised concerns on the
constituents of IIP and their weights in the Index.
25. Trade deficit is at a record high…
Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
Note: Data for 2008-09 is for April – September while that of 2007-08 is provisional
As India imports two-thirds of its crude requirement, the trade deficit for the first half is already 75% of the full-
year trade deficit of 2007-08. Sharp and rapid rupee depreciation has also hurt the importers in the recent months.
26. …and fiscal position is also deteriorating
6.5
Estimated Fiscal deficit (incl. off-budget liabilities)
6.2
6.0 Fiscal deficit excl off-budget liabilities
Budget estimate
5.9
5.5
fiscal deficit/GDP (%)
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.1
4
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.4
3.2
2.5
2.5
2.0
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08RE 2008-09F
Source: CRISIL Research
Note: The major off-budget liabilities are fertilizer and oil subsidies.
The subsidies provided to oil marketing and fertilizer companies can blow up the fiscal deficit number. Besides, the 6th
pay commission increases and a potential slowdown in direct and indirect taxes may also worsen the fiscal situation.
27. Balance of Payments Situation doesn’t look good either
Current account balances have
deteriorated in this fiscal mainly
because of rising trade deficit.
On the other hand, capital is
hard to come by because of the
global liquidity crunch.
Foreign Institutional Investors
who brought over US$ 17
billion in calendar 2007, have
pulled out over US$ 13 billion in
this calendar year till October.
FDI flows have been robust and
that gives some solace.
Source: Reserve Bank of India, SEBI
and Department of Commerce, India
28. Foreign Exchange Reserves though substantial have depleted
Foreign Exchange Reserves
have depleted at a rapid rate this
fiscal. Forex reserves have lost
over US$ 50 billion primarily
due to euro-dollar movements
and RBI selling dollars in the
currency market to support the
Rupee.
RBI is seen supporting Rupee
near 49-50 levels as sharp
depreciation of INR hurts
importers.
Source: Reserve Bank of India,
29. Tight Liquidity Conditions led to monetary easing
Source: Reserve Bank of India
The liquidity in the Indian financial system became extremely tight in late September and early October, a
phenomenon observed across the globe. RBI acted swiftly and cut CRR and Repo rate and opened new LAF
windows for mutual funds and NBFC who were under tremendous pressure due to inadequate liquidity.
30. Credit & Money Supply growth remain above RBI targets
Source: Reserve Bank of India
RBI in its mid-term review has stated that credit growth was at 29.4% on a y-o-y basis upto October 10, 2008
compared to 23.1% a year ago. Similarly, the money supply growth of 20.3% is also above the RBI target of 17%
31. Private Final Consumption Expenditure
Source: Economic Survey 2007-08
India’s domestic consumption as a percentage of GDP is quite high which is comforting. That said, a slowdown in
consumption demand cannot be denied with job market becoming weak and disposable incomes not growing the
way that have been in the last few years.
32. Gross Domestic Capital Formation (Investments)
Investments have become an
engine of growth in the past five
years. However, as the
economic growth gets into 7%
zone, Investment from the
private sector may come down
in the short to medium term.
We have witnessed robust FDI
inflows during the last six
months that indicate that as and
when the financial crisis gets
over, India can get on to that
high growth trajectory
Source: Economic Survey 2007-08
33. Gross Domestic Savings
Savings will remain the mainstay
of Indian economy. With
current savings rate hovering
around that 35% mark, RBI
projections say that Gross
Domestic Savings may actually
reach 36% of GDP by the end
of 11th five year plan.
Source: Economic Survey 2007-08
Source: Reserve Bank of India
34. Demographic Dividend (Working population 15-64 years)
Source: United Nations
A population bulge in the working age group (15-64 years) is seen as an inevitable advantage characterized as a
quot;demographic dividendquot;. India is, & will remain the youngest economy till 2050 with a median age of 38.6 years, as
compared to China with 45 years & Japan with 54.9 years.
36. Returns of major world indices
Source: MFI Explorer
Note: All Ordinaries – Australia; Dow Jones and Nasdaq – US; FTSE – UK; CAC 40 – France; DAX –
Germany; Strait Times – Singapore; Hang Seng – Hong Kong; RTS – Russia; SSE Composite – China;
Bovespa Sao Paulo – Brazil; Kospi – South Korea; Nikkei – Japan
Equity markets across the world have registered huge losses in 2008. The primary reason is the flight of capital from
riskier assets to safer assets like Treasury and sovereign bonds.
37. Returns of major world indices
Source: MFI Explorer
Note: All Ordinaries – Australia; Dow Jones and Nasdaq – US; FTSE – UK; CAC 40 – France; DAX – Germany;
Strait Times – Singapore; Hang Seng – Hong Kong; RTS – Russia; SSE Composite – China; Bovespa Sao Paulo –
Brazil; Kospi – South Korea; Nikkei – Japan
Majority of the benchmark equity indices are giving negative returns on a 3-year basis. Sensex has however
performed quite well over its peers on a 3-year period.
38. Indian Equity Markets – Sectoral Indices performance
Source: MFI Explorer
BSE Realty Index has lost close to 85% of its value in 2008. The Real estate sector is under severe strain due to
high interest rates and reduced affordability because of high prices. BSE Metal which is the second worst
performer has lost most of its value since August 2008 after the commodity bubble burst.
39. Unprecedented volatility in Equity markets
Source: National Stock Exchange, India
Unprecedented volatility has been observed in the global equity markets in the last two months and India is not
different in that regard. India VIX, which is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near-term has
almost gone up 100% since its inception on November 1, 2007.
40. Fund flows in Indian equity market
Source: Securities and Exchange Board of India
FIIs have been in the thick of action during the last few years. A lot of capital was brought in by the FIIs which
took the Sensex to 21,000 in January 2008. Since then, it has been a trend reversal. Although Mutual funds have
bought equities, but their scale is much less as compared to foreign investors.
41. Equity market volumes have dipped
Source: National Stock Exchange of India
Market volumes have thinned considerably during the last 7-8 months, a clear sign of risk aversion prevailing in
the market. Total cash & F&O volumes have dipped by as much as 44% from October 2007 to October 2008.
42. Corporate Performance showing first signs of strain
Source: Capital Line
The growth in EBITDA and PAT has come down sharply from its highs. The top-line growth has also started
moderating from Q2-FY09 and as slowdown becomes more pronounced, revenues will be adversely impacted.
43. Margins remain under pressure
Source: Capital Line
Margins both EBITDA and PAT have depressed in the last three quarters on the back of higher input costs. The
recent drop in commodity prices shall come into effect from Q3-FY09 but this time around realization from sales
may also come down.
45. Wholesale Debt Market trends
The debt market capitalization
has consistently increased over
the past years. Corporate debt
market however, continues to
remain very shallow. The
Government debt market still
forms 88% of the market
turnover.
FII debt investment limits in
corporate bonds were raised
recently from US$ 3 billion to
US$ 6 billion, which was availed
instantaneously. SEBI has also
proposed a lot of reforms for
the Indian corporate bond
market.
Source: National Stock Exchange, India
46. 10-year bond yields
Source: Reuters and Office of Economic Advisor, India
Yields of the 10-year Government paper moved up to as high as 9.4% before coming down below 8% as
inflation expectations cooled off. The yields went below 7.5% after the inflation data for week ending November
1, 2008 came at 8.98%
47. Corporate bond spreads have gone up
Source: Reuters
Corporate bond spreads have risen in the past few months mirroring the global trend. The 5-year AAA corporate
bond spread rose to as much as 400 basis points.
49. Dollar has gained against majority of the currencies
Source: Federal Reserve, United States
Dollar has appreciated sharply against Euro and other major currencies since mid-July 2008. Yen is the only currency
that has gained against dollar. Analysts believe that this phenomenon has got to do with the reversal of yen carry
trade that prevailed for several years.
51. Crude Oil now below US$ 60/barrel
Source: Reuters and Federal Reserve, United States
Crude oil has now corrected by over 60% from its peak in July 2008. The primary reason for the oil price correction
is the expectation of demand destruction that may happen in the forthcoming years of global slowdown. Besides, US
dollar has appreciated notably against Euro in the past few months.
52. Gold
Source: www.gold.org and Federal Reserve, United States
Considered to be a safe haven, investors shifted their money to Gold leading to its prices breaching the US$
1000/ounce mark for the first time. However, gold has corrected in line with other commodities in the past one
month as US dollar continues to appreciate against major currencies.
53. Copper
Source: London Metal Exchange
Copper prices also corrected by around 60% after getting hit by the concerns of lower demand going forward.
56. Outlook
The advanced economies led by US are likely to have a negative GDP growth for the next few
quarters on the back of slowing private consumption. There is a growing consensus that economic
recovery in these economies would be U-shaped at best and L-shaped at worst.
Emerging economies including India and China shall also have spillover effects of this slowdown in
advanced economies. Various international agencies and rating companies have already put a watch
on India and downgraded its growth forecast for 2009 and 2010.
As we run a high fiscal deficit, we don’t have any headroom for an economic stimulus package like
China. Hence, an economic slowdown can affect the job market adversely, which in turn can impact
consumption demand.
On the domestic front, Q3 corporate results could come as a negative surprise to markets. General
elections mid-next year and the resulting government shall be instrumental in giving markets some
direction.
We expect markets to remain range-bound and quite volatile at least for the next six months. It will
continue taking cues from the global markets and price in the negative news coming in from all
quarters.
Even if we revise down the earnings of Sensex companies, the Sensex currently trades at around 9-
10 times Price-Earnings multiple on FY09 earnings estimates. If we take the inherent value in some
stocks into account, this multiple comes down further.