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The Effects of Exposure Intensity on Technology
Adoption and Gains: Experimental Evidence from
Bangladesh on the System of Rice Intensification
Christopher B. Barrett, Asad Islam, Abdul Malek, Deb Pakrashi, Ummul Ruthbah
USDA Multi-state Research Project NC-1034 annual research conference on
The Economics of Agricultural Technology & Innovation
Atlanta, GA
July 21, 2019
2 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business2 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
System of Rice Intensification(SRI) began in 1980s Madagascar.
Now diffused to >50 countries.
Shows big (30-80% yield/profit) gains in observational data.
But diffusion remains limited within countries and disadoption
surprisingly high (often 15-40%).
Gains also remain hotly disputed within rice science community
(e.g., “Curiosity, Nonsense Non-science and SRI” or “Agronomic
UFOs” both published in Field Crops Research).
To date, no RCT to evaluate diffusion or farmer-managed gains.
We (w/BRAC) fielded 1st large-scale, multi-year RCT on
diffusion of/gains from SRI in Bangladesh.
We find significant gains but high disadoption rates.
Specific Motivation: SRI Controversy
Photo credit: SRI-RICE
http://sri.ciifad.cornell.edu/
3 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business3 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Broader Motivation: Learning in Tech Diffusion
The returns to new technologies are uncertain and endogenous to farmer
behaviour.
So core economics models (F&R 1995, C&U 2010, etc.) rely on farmer learning
about a single, performance-related object … typically the profit function.
But these models have two central predictions:
1) Performance improves with added information/learning. Adoption is just a stop
along the way.
2) Disadoption should never happen.
In alternative models (Gabaix, Hanna et al., Schwartzstein, etc.) that focus on
multi-object learning and selective inattention, extra exposure to a new technology
could be consistent with no performance gains beyond the extensive margin and
with disadoption. Maybe learning whether to try a new tech differs from learning
how to use it?
We find greater cross-sectional/intertemporal intensity of exposure to SRI
increases adoption but not performance at the intensive margin. Also high
rates of disadoption. So need to reject the canonical, single performance-
based object of learning model.
4 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business4 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
SRI
• A locally adaptable system of rice cultivation practices/principles.
• No purchased inputs required, thus often thought to be pro-poor.
Key principles consist of the following (1st 3 are the distinctive ones):
1. Early transplanting of seedlings
2. Transplanting in wider spacing
3. Just one or two seedlings/hill
4. Intermittent irrigation
4. Complementary weed and pest control
5. Incorporate organic matter into soils
Some agronomists consider these simply best management practices
(BMPs): promote healthy seedlings, full use of organics, regular plant
deometry, judicious use of water, good weed control … these develop
robust root system, and ensure adequate nutrient and water availability.
5 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business5 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Multi-year RCT w/randomized saturation
• Partnered with BRAC to implement across five different districts of rural Bangladesh
• Randomized invitations to one-day SRI training course (w/standardized video module)
offered by BRAC to rice farmers in rural Bangladesh, following RS design
• Follows BRAC standard SRI curriculum for SRI, ensuring external validity for BRAC.
• Repeated training in randomly selected half of training villages in second year.
• Baseline, midline, endline survey data collection at end of Boro season along with direct
observation of rice plots early in Boro season to establish compliance with SRI principles
as trained.
Key outcomes: Adoption of SRI; rice yields, costs, profits; household well-being indicators
6 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business6 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Experimental Design w/BRAC in rural Bangladesh
120 training villages
w/randomized saturation
62 control villages
1,856 farmers (C)
T2: 60 villages
Two years of training
1,166 repeat trained (T2)
659 farmers untrained (U2)
T1: 60 villages
Only one year of training
1,060 farmers trained (T1)
745 farmers untrained (U1)
• 30-40 farmers surveyed in each village. Number invited to training
varied randomly by village between 10 and 30.
• 2,226 farmers trained, 1,404 untrained in training villages, 1,856 pure
controls. Baseline (endline) sample = 5,486 (4,126)
• No differential attrition across treatment arms.
Randomized saturation
7 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business7 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
15-20 days-old seedlings
6 key SRI principles taught by BRAC
One or two seedlings per hill Wider spacing (25 × 20 cm)
Use more organic fertilizer Alternate wetting and
drying for irrigation
Mechanical weeding at
regular intervals
8 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business8 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles
1. Age of seedlings at transplanting
SRI Traditional Method
Older (40-45 day) seedlingsYounger (15-20 day) seedlings
9 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business9 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
2. Number of seedlings per hill
1-2 seedlings per hill 4-5 seedlings per hill
SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles
SRI Traditional Method
10 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business10 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
3. Transplanted seedling spacing
Specific distance (25 × 20 cm) No specific distance or geometry
SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles
SRI Traditional Method
11 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business11 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
4. Application of organic fertilizer
Use more organic fertilizer Mainly use synthetic chemical fertilizers
SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles
SRI Traditional Method
12 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business12 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
5. Alternate wetting and drying of rice fields
Alternate wetting and drying Continuously flooded
SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles
SRI Traditional Method
13 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business13 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
6. Regular mechanical weeding
Use pesticidesMechanical weeding
SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles
SRI Traditional Method
14 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business14 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Sample and Data
• Large sample, across multiple years
• Easily meets balance tests in all dimensions … well implemented.
• Attrition around 10% per annum, w/some variation across treatment arms.
• But no evidence that treatment differentially predicts attrition.
Treatment status
No. of
Villages
Total
baseline
farmers
Total midline
(2014-15)
farmers
Total endline
(2015-16)
farmers
Control (C) 62 1856 1663 1459
1 year training villages 60 1805 1646 1313
Trained farmers (T1) 1060 993 806
Untrained farmers (U1) 745 653 507
2 year training villages 60 1825 1625 1354
Trained farmers (T2) 1166 1051 892
Untrained farmers (U2) 659 574 462
Total 182 5486 4934 4126
15 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business15 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Core empirical strategy: ANCOVA
 ITT effects on adoption, yields, and profits:
𝑌𝑖𝑗,𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡 = 𝛼1 + 𝛿1 𝑌𝑖𝑗,𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 + 𝛽11 𝑈𝑖1 + 𝛽12 𝑇𝑖1 + 𝛽13 𝑈𝑖2 + 𝛽14 𝑇𝑖2 + 𝛱1 𝑋𝑖𝑗 + 𝜀𝑖𝑗
Estimate ITT ( 𝛽1𝑖) using binary treatment dummies and then again using
continuous treatment intensities
 LATE effects of SRI adoption on yields, and profits:
IV w/ITT estimate of adoption:
𝑌𝑖𝑗,𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡 = 𝛼2 + 𝛿2 𝑌𝑖𝑗,𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 + 𝛽2 𝐴𝑑𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑗 + Π2 𝑋𝑖𝑗 + 𝜗𝑖𝑗
Robustness checks with plot difference-in-differences estimator confirm core results
16 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business16 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
1. SRI training has positive and significant adoption effects across the board
2. Strong spillover effects on untreated farmers in training villages … some social learning
3. ITT effects on adoption strictly increasing in intensity of exposure (C<U1<U2<T1<T2)
4. ITT effects on outcomes statistically indistinguishable among treatment arms
% SRI
Adoption Yield Revenue Total cost Profit
One-time untreated (U1) 9.273*** 0.145*** 0.139*** 0.137*** 0.125
One-time treated (T1) 38.652*** 0.150*** 0.142*** 0.173*** 0.040
Two-time untreated (U2) 12.535*** 0.149*** 0.157*** 0.147*** 0.195
Two-time treated (T2) 53.143*** 0.167*** 0.172*** 0.163*** 0.169
Baseline outcome 0.207*** 0.259*** 0.068*** 0.036
Observations 10,297 8,830 8,830 8,821 8,821
p-value (U1-T1) 0.00 0.81 0.88 0.17 0.35
p-value (U1-U2) 0.30 0.90 0.62 0.83 0.73
p-value (T1-T2) 0.01 0.56 0.36 0.83 0.51
p-value (U2-T2) 0.00 0.36 0.44 0.58 0.85
Endline ITT estimates by treatment category
Results qualitatively identical using continuous treatment intensity and w/plot diff-in-diff.
17 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business17 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Insights from non-random selection into SRI uptake
No stochastic dominance b/n C&T at baseline.
FOSD at midline (and continues at endline), but no dominance among treatment arms.
18 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business18 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
ITT treatment intensity effect emerges > median (0.6) saturation
Entirely spillover effects in twice-trained villages … synergy between cross-
sectional and intertemporal intensity of exposure stimulates diffusion.
ITT Treatment Intensities % SRI Adoption
One-time untreated (U1F) 15.734***
U1F x > 70% -3.831
One-time treated (T1F) 63.512***
T1F x > 70% 2.256
Two-time untreated (U2F) 17.125***
U2F x > 70% 34.309***
Two-time treated (T2F) 83.505***
T2F x > 70% 0.711
Observations 10,297
R2 0.290
Nonlinear exposure intensity effects
19 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business19 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
LATE estimates of effects of SRI adoption
Yield Revenue Total cost Profit
Adopted SRI
(IV=Treatment status) 0.238*** 0.241*** 0.264*** 0.099
Baseline outcome 0.231*** 0.278*** -0.059** 0.030
SRI has a positive causal impact on rice yields, consistent w/observational literature.
Profit effects positive but insignificant.
1st stage F stats all >100. Results qualitatively same under continuous treatment and plot diff-in-diff.
20 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business20 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Insights from non-random selection into SRI uptake
If unobservables (e.g., skill) complement the technology and both positively affect productivity,
then uptake will be non-random.
If beliefs updating is a function of both intensity of exposure and expected outcome, then initial
adoption will be by farmers who expect to benefit more.
Exposure intensity generates a clear scaling effect but no productivity effect.
Ordered endline profits by treatment status Ordered endline yields by treatment status
21 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business21 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Insights from non-random selection into SRI uptake
No stochastic dominance at endline b/n adopters and non-adopters w/n treatment groups.
P-values decreasing w/
exposure intensity as
compliance weakly improves
w/exposure intensity.
But farmers make reasonably
rational SRI uptake decisions
w/n each treatment group.
22 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business
ITT/ LATE estimates of effects on household well-being
Panel A: ITT
(Treatment Status) Ln(Savings)a
Household
status
Food
security
Life
satisfaction
Satisfaction with
living standard
One-time untreated (U1) 0.164 0.204** 0.297*** 0.208* 0.142
One-time treated (T1) 0.135 0.162*** 0.371*** 0.257** 0.108
Two-time untreated (U2) 0.344 0.126* 0.228** 0.261*** 0.174*
Two-time treated (T2) 0.145 0.101 0.207* 0.234** 0.185**
Baseline outcome 0.035*** 0.437*** 0.080*** 0.042*** 0.047***
p-value (U1-T1) 0.91 0.58 0.34 0.41 0.58
p-value (U1-U2) 0.56 0.40 0.51 0.58 0.76
p-value (T1-T2) 0.95 0.39 0.10 0.80 0.40
p-value (U2-T2) 0.30 0.72 0.80 0.64 0.88
Panel B: LATE
Adopted SRI (IV=Treatment
status) 0.148 0.039 0.356** 0.291** 0.143
Baseline outcome 0.048*** 0.432*** 0.063* 0.065*** 0.061***
Positive ITT and LATE estimates of impacts on various household well-being measures, but not all stat
sig. ITT effects again invariant to intensity of exposure.
Consistent w/profit effects … positive but quite dispersed hh-level outcomes. Technology is favorable
on average but lots of variation in outcomes across households.
23 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business23 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
• SRI use rate stable at 33% in both years
• 36% of farmers who adopted in year 1 disadopted SRI in year 2,
replaced by 18% of initial non-adopters who adopt w/delay.
• Intensity of exposure to SRI training impacts adoption, disadoption
and delayed adoption following the same pattern as endline adoption.
Disadoption and Delayed Adoption of SRI
SRI Adoption
End of Year 1
SRI Adoption end of Year 2 Total
Did not Adopt Adopted
Did not Adopt (Never adopters)
1475 (82.36%)
(1U=448, 1T=308,
2U=386, 2T=333)
(Delayed adopters)
316 (17.64%)
(1U=29, 1T=101,
2U=42, 2T=144)
1791
67.15%
Adopted (Disadopters)
317 (36.19%)
(1U=16, 1T=189,
2U=21, 2T=91)
(Persistent adopters)
559 (63.81%)
(1U=14, 1T=208,
2U=13, 2T=324)
876
32.85%
N
%
1792
67.19%
875
32.81%
2667
100%
24 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business24 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Disadopters:
• Relatively older and less educated, with more land.
• Had highest midline cost of production.
• Experienced smaller gain in profits (29%) compared to the persistent
adopters (53%) at the end of year 1.
Delayed Adopters:
• Had lower production at the end of year 1 (24.9 kg/decimal) than
persistent adopters (26.1 kg/decimal).
Never Adopters:
• At baseline: significantly lower cost of production and higher profits
and better off than adopters.
• Possibly had little (least?) to gain from adoption of the SRI.
Persistent Adopters:
• Had largest (smallest) midline-baseline Δprofits (Δ costs)
Disadoption and Delayed Adoption of SRI
25 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business25 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Conclusions
• Higher intensity of exposure in both cross-section and time series has big diffusion
effect, positive on uptake, negative on disadoption.
• Great exposure to SRI training also has significant, positive effects on rice yields, with
positive but milder and not-always-significant impacts on profits and hh well-being.
• LATE of SRI adoption on rice yields (24%) or profits (10% but insign.) and household
well-being outcomes are consistently positive and relatively large.
• Highly non-random selection-on-unobservables into SRI adoption. Exposure has pure
scaling effect.
• However, also high rates of disadoption, limited compliance with principles as taught,
and only very modest adjustment of practices in response to more experience/training.
• Patterns not consistent w/ canonical learning models: much disadoption and no
improvement in performance (as distinct from adoption) with added information
exposure. Consistent w/ newer models of multi object learning and selective
inattention. Farmers seem to learn to whether to use SRI more than how to use SRI.
We invite your comments and questions:
Chris Barrett – cbb2@cornell.edu
Thank you for your interest!
27 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business27 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Baseline characteristics of farmers by treatment status
p-values from joint nulls
0.59
0.63
0.89
0.42
Panel A Treat Control
p-value
Household Characteristics Mean Std.dev Mean Std.dev
Average Age of the household (above 15 years) 36.75 0.13 36.43 0.18 0.14
Average Education of the adult member of household (years) 4.31 0.04 4.34 0.06 0.67
Farm size (cultivable) last Boro season (in decimals) 163.46 2.66 165.93 2.94 0.57
Household size 5.13 0.03 5.19 0.05 0.25
Maximum education by any household member 8.51 0.06 8.66 0.09 0.14
Yield (kg/decimal) 22.28 4.84 22.44 5.50 0.12
Total cost of production 430.26 250.44 422.64 224.44 0.10
Estimated profit 440.12 255.93 445.42 341.81 0.34
No. of observations 3630 1856
Treatment Villages Only
Panel B Treated Untreated p-
valueHousehold Characteristics Mean Std.dev Mean Std.dev
Average Age of the household (above 15 years) 36.82 0.16 36.69 0.21 0.61
Average Education of the adult member of household (years) 4.34 0.05 4.29 0.07 0.59
Farm size (cultivable) last Boro season (in decimals) 161.47 2.99 166.40 4.97 0.37
Household size 5.11 0.04 5.19 0.05 0.25
Maximum education by any household member 8.54 0.07 8.52 0.10 0.85
Yield (kg/decimal) 22.35 4.88 22.17 4.78 0.13
Total cost of production 427.63 242.69 434.77 263.54 0.23
Estimated profit 441.22 255.92 438.23 256.42 0.62
No. of observations 2226 1404
Balance between Treatment and Control
28 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business28 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Characteristics of trained farmers by number of treatment rounds
Treatment Villages Only
Variables of Interest One-time
Training Village
(T1)
Two-time
Training Village
(T2)
p-value
Panel A; Household Characteristics (Baseline) Mean Std.dev Mean Std.dev
Average Age of the household (above 15 years) 36.44 0.24 36.97 0.23 0.11
Average Education of the adult members (years) 4.34 0.08 4.30 0.07 0.72
Farm size (cultivable) last Boro season (in
decimals)
167.66 4.61 164.61 4.67 0.64
Household size 5.23 0.06 5.08 0.06 0.09
Maximum education by any household member 8.64 0.12 8.45 0.11 0.21
No. of Observations (farmers) 928 1003
Panel B: Yield, Cost and Profit (Baseline)
Yield (kg/decimal) 22.42 4.69 22.28 5.05 0.30
Total cost of production 425.06 239.55 430.06 245.64 0.47
Estimated profit 445.38 256.77 437.31 255.11 0.27
Panel C: Yield, Cost and Profit (Midline)
SRI Adoption 49.72 50.01 49.19 50.00 0.72
Yield (kg/decimal) 26.28 7.43 26.06 6.87 0.29
Total cost of production 315.71 112.61 310.89 111.75 0.14
Estimated profit 526.93 243.37 530.63 236.78 0.60
Balance between Treatment and Control
29 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business29 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Same results when replace treatment category w/category interacted w/village-level treatment
intensity.
Endline ITT estimates by continuous treatment intensity
% SRI
Adoption Yield Revenue
Total
cost Profit
One-time untreated (U1F) 15.618*** 0.235*** 0.213*** 0.198** 0.291***
One-time treated (T1F) 64.962*** 0.210*** 0.190*** 0.239** 0.206***
Two-time untreated (U2F) 24.272*** 0.229*** 0.235*** 0.206** 0.339***
Two-time treated (T2F) 84.396*** 0.225*** 0.226*** 0.208** 0.335***
Baseline outcome 0.210*** 0.259*** -0.067*** 0.040***
Observations 10,297 8,830 8,830 8,821 8,820
R2 0.286 0.073 0.090 0.043 0.017
p-value (U1F-T1F) 0.00 0.48 0.54 0.40 0.17
p-value(U1F-U2F) 0.19 0.93 0.76 0.83 0.73
p-value (T1F-T2F) 0.04 0.79 0.56 0.76 0.10
p-value (U2F-T2F) 0.00 0.91 0.82 0.91 0.93
30 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business30 SRI Bangladesh July 2019
Does more exposure increase farmer adherence to training?
Compliance w/SRI principles as trained is very incomplete and not consistently, highly
responsive to exposure intensity.
Direct trainees far more likely to learn how to practice SRI than spillover adopters are.
Little/mixed evidence of learning by doing (e.g., T1-T2, U1-U2)
Farmers learn and adjust whether to use SRI faster than how to use SRI.
Age of seedlings No of seedlings
Distance b/n
seedlings
Alternate drying
& wetting
Use of organic
fertilizer
Mechanical
weeding
U11 -0.217 1.607 1.685** 12.255* 1.545 -1.810*
U12 1.787* 2.342 5.497*** 3.959 10.545** 9.467***
U21 -0.026 5.130 4.106*** 10.717 4.905* -2.249**
U22 0.605 7.458 9.195*** 17.603** 10.882** 4.424**
T11 3.352*** 14.640*** 15.086*** 19.808*** 10.398*** 0.399
T12 4.107*** 20.244*** 24.430*** 10.689 14.416*** 12.308***
T21 2.306*** 15.035*** 14.317*** 17.439*** 11.642*** -0.617
T22 5.885*** 24.828*** 30.091*** 21.767*** 20.634*** 9.197***
Observations 33,244 33,244 33,244 33,244 33,244 33,244

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1907 - The Effects of Exposure Intensity on Technology Adoption and Gains: Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh on the System of Rice Intensification

  • 1. The Effects of Exposure Intensity on Technology Adoption and Gains: Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh on the System of Rice Intensification Christopher B. Barrett, Asad Islam, Abdul Malek, Deb Pakrashi, Ummul Ruthbah USDA Multi-state Research Project NC-1034 annual research conference on The Economics of Agricultural Technology & Innovation Atlanta, GA July 21, 2019
  • 2. 2 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business2 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 System of Rice Intensification(SRI) began in 1980s Madagascar. Now diffused to >50 countries. Shows big (30-80% yield/profit) gains in observational data. But diffusion remains limited within countries and disadoption surprisingly high (often 15-40%). Gains also remain hotly disputed within rice science community (e.g., “Curiosity, Nonsense Non-science and SRI” or “Agronomic UFOs” both published in Field Crops Research). To date, no RCT to evaluate diffusion or farmer-managed gains. We (w/BRAC) fielded 1st large-scale, multi-year RCT on diffusion of/gains from SRI in Bangladesh. We find significant gains but high disadoption rates. Specific Motivation: SRI Controversy Photo credit: SRI-RICE http://sri.ciifad.cornell.edu/
  • 3. 3 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business3 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Broader Motivation: Learning in Tech Diffusion The returns to new technologies are uncertain and endogenous to farmer behaviour. So core economics models (F&R 1995, C&U 2010, etc.) rely on farmer learning about a single, performance-related object … typically the profit function. But these models have two central predictions: 1) Performance improves with added information/learning. Adoption is just a stop along the way. 2) Disadoption should never happen. In alternative models (Gabaix, Hanna et al., Schwartzstein, etc.) that focus on multi-object learning and selective inattention, extra exposure to a new technology could be consistent with no performance gains beyond the extensive margin and with disadoption. Maybe learning whether to try a new tech differs from learning how to use it? We find greater cross-sectional/intertemporal intensity of exposure to SRI increases adoption but not performance at the intensive margin. Also high rates of disadoption. So need to reject the canonical, single performance- based object of learning model.
  • 4. 4 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business4 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 SRI • A locally adaptable system of rice cultivation practices/principles. • No purchased inputs required, thus often thought to be pro-poor. Key principles consist of the following (1st 3 are the distinctive ones): 1. Early transplanting of seedlings 2. Transplanting in wider spacing 3. Just one or two seedlings/hill 4. Intermittent irrigation 4. Complementary weed and pest control 5. Incorporate organic matter into soils Some agronomists consider these simply best management practices (BMPs): promote healthy seedlings, full use of organics, regular plant deometry, judicious use of water, good weed control … these develop robust root system, and ensure adequate nutrient and water availability.
  • 5. 5 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business5 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Multi-year RCT w/randomized saturation • Partnered with BRAC to implement across five different districts of rural Bangladesh • Randomized invitations to one-day SRI training course (w/standardized video module) offered by BRAC to rice farmers in rural Bangladesh, following RS design • Follows BRAC standard SRI curriculum for SRI, ensuring external validity for BRAC. • Repeated training in randomly selected half of training villages in second year. • Baseline, midline, endline survey data collection at end of Boro season along with direct observation of rice plots early in Boro season to establish compliance with SRI principles as trained. Key outcomes: Adoption of SRI; rice yields, costs, profits; household well-being indicators
  • 6. 6 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business6 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Experimental Design w/BRAC in rural Bangladesh 120 training villages w/randomized saturation 62 control villages 1,856 farmers (C) T2: 60 villages Two years of training 1,166 repeat trained (T2) 659 farmers untrained (U2) T1: 60 villages Only one year of training 1,060 farmers trained (T1) 745 farmers untrained (U1) • 30-40 farmers surveyed in each village. Number invited to training varied randomly by village between 10 and 30. • 2,226 farmers trained, 1,404 untrained in training villages, 1,856 pure controls. Baseline (endline) sample = 5,486 (4,126) • No differential attrition across treatment arms. Randomized saturation
  • 7. 7 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business7 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 15-20 days-old seedlings 6 key SRI principles taught by BRAC One or two seedlings per hill Wider spacing (25 × 20 cm) Use more organic fertilizer Alternate wetting and drying for irrigation Mechanical weeding at regular intervals
  • 8. 8 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business8 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles 1. Age of seedlings at transplanting SRI Traditional Method Older (40-45 day) seedlingsYounger (15-20 day) seedlings
  • 9. 9 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business9 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 2. Number of seedlings per hill 1-2 seedlings per hill 4-5 seedlings per hill SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles SRI Traditional Method
  • 10. 10 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business10 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 3. Transplanted seedling spacing Specific distance (25 × 20 cm) No specific distance or geometry SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles SRI Traditional Method
  • 11. 11 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business11 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 4. Application of organic fertilizer Use more organic fertilizer Mainly use synthetic chemical fertilizers SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles SRI Traditional Method
  • 12. 12 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business12 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 5. Alternate wetting and drying of rice fields Alternate wetting and drying Continuously flooded SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles SRI Traditional Method
  • 13. 13 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business13 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 6. Regular mechanical weeding Use pesticidesMechanical weeding SRI vs traditional methods: 6 key principles SRI Traditional Method
  • 14. 14 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business14 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Sample and Data • Large sample, across multiple years • Easily meets balance tests in all dimensions … well implemented. • Attrition around 10% per annum, w/some variation across treatment arms. • But no evidence that treatment differentially predicts attrition. Treatment status No. of Villages Total baseline farmers Total midline (2014-15) farmers Total endline (2015-16) farmers Control (C) 62 1856 1663 1459 1 year training villages 60 1805 1646 1313 Trained farmers (T1) 1060 993 806 Untrained farmers (U1) 745 653 507 2 year training villages 60 1825 1625 1354 Trained farmers (T2) 1166 1051 892 Untrained farmers (U2) 659 574 462 Total 182 5486 4934 4126
  • 15. 15 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business15 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Core empirical strategy: ANCOVA  ITT effects on adoption, yields, and profits: 𝑌𝑖𝑗,𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡 = 𝛼1 + 𝛿1 𝑌𝑖𝑗,𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 + 𝛽11 𝑈𝑖1 + 𝛽12 𝑇𝑖1 + 𝛽13 𝑈𝑖2 + 𝛽14 𝑇𝑖2 + 𝛱1 𝑋𝑖𝑗 + 𝜀𝑖𝑗 Estimate ITT ( 𝛽1𝑖) using binary treatment dummies and then again using continuous treatment intensities  LATE effects of SRI adoption on yields, and profits: IV w/ITT estimate of adoption: 𝑌𝑖𝑗,𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡 = 𝛼2 + 𝛿2 𝑌𝑖𝑗,𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 + 𝛽2 𝐴𝑑𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑗 + Π2 𝑋𝑖𝑗 + 𝜗𝑖𝑗 Robustness checks with plot difference-in-differences estimator confirm core results
  • 16. 16 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business16 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 1. SRI training has positive and significant adoption effects across the board 2. Strong spillover effects on untreated farmers in training villages … some social learning 3. ITT effects on adoption strictly increasing in intensity of exposure (C<U1<U2<T1<T2) 4. ITT effects on outcomes statistically indistinguishable among treatment arms % SRI Adoption Yield Revenue Total cost Profit One-time untreated (U1) 9.273*** 0.145*** 0.139*** 0.137*** 0.125 One-time treated (T1) 38.652*** 0.150*** 0.142*** 0.173*** 0.040 Two-time untreated (U2) 12.535*** 0.149*** 0.157*** 0.147*** 0.195 Two-time treated (T2) 53.143*** 0.167*** 0.172*** 0.163*** 0.169 Baseline outcome 0.207*** 0.259*** 0.068*** 0.036 Observations 10,297 8,830 8,830 8,821 8,821 p-value (U1-T1) 0.00 0.81 0.88 0.17 0.35 p-value (U1-U2) 0.30 0.90 0.62 0.83 0.73 p-value (T1-T2) 0.01 0.56 0.36 0.83 0.51 p-value (U2-T2) 0.00 0.36 0.44 0.58 0.85 Endline ITT estimates by treatment category Results qualitatively identical using continuous treatment intensity and w/plot diff-in-diff.
  • 17. 17 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business17 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Insights from non-random selection into SRI uptake No stochastic dominance b/n C&T at baseline. FOSD at midline (and continues at endline), but no dominance among treatment arms.
  • 18. 18 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business18 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 ITT treatment intensity effect emerges > median (0.6) saturation Entirely spillover effects in twice-trained villages … synergy between cross- sectional and intertemporal intensity of exposure stimulates diffusion. ITT Treatment Intensities % SRI Adoption One-time untreated (U1F) 15.734*** U1F x > 70% -3.831 One-time treated (T1F) 63.512*** T1F x > 70% 2.256 Two-time untreated (U2F) 17.125*** U2F x > 70% 34.309*** Two-time treated (T2F) 83.505*** T2F x > 70% 0.711 Observations 10,297 R2 0.290 Nonlinear exposure intensity effects
  • 19. 19 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business19 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 LATE estimates of effects of SRI adoption Yield Revenue Total cost Profit Adopted SRI (IV=Treatment status) 0.238*** 0.241*** 0.264*** 0.099 Baseline outcome 0.231*** 0.278*** -0.059** 0.030 SRI has a positive causal impact on rice yields, consistent w/observational literature. Profit effects positive but insignificant. 1st stage F stats all >100. Results qualitatively same under continuous treatment and plot diff-in-diff.
  • 20. 20 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business20 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Insights from non-random selection into SRI uptake If unobservables (e.g., skill) complement the technology and both positively affect productivity, then uptake will be non-random. If beliefs updating is a function of both intensity of exposure and expected outcome, then initial adoption will be by farmers who expect to benefit more. Exposure intensity generates a clear scaling effect but no productivity effect. Ordered endline profits by treatment status Ordered endline yields by treatment status
  • 21. 21 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business21 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Insights from non-random selection into SRI uptake No stochastic dominance at endline b/n adopters and non-adopters w/n treatment groups. P-values decreasing w/ exposure intensity as compliance weakly improves w/exposure intensity. But farmers make reasonably rational SRI uptake decisions w/n each treatment group.
  • 22. 22 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business ITT/ LATE estimates of effects on household well-being Panel A: ITT (Treatment Status) Ln(Savings)a Household status Food security Life satisfaction Satisfaction with living standard One-time untreated (U1) 0.164 0.204** 0.297*** 0.208* 0.142 One-time treated (T1) 0.135 0.162*** 0.371*** 0.257** 0.108 Two-time untreated (U2) 0.344 0.126* 0.228** 0.261*** 0.174* Two-time treated (T2) 0.145 0.101 0.207* 0.234** 0.185** Baseline outcome 0.035*** 0.437*** 0.080*** 0.042*** 0.047*** p-value (U1-T1) 0.91 0.58 0.34 0.41 0.58 p-value (U1-U2) 0.56 0.40 0.51 0.58 0.76 p-value (T1-T2) 0.95 0.39 0.10 0.80 0.40 p-value (U2-T2) 0.30 0.72 0.80 0.64 0.88 Panel B: LATE Adopted SRI (IV=Treatment status) 0.148 0.039 0.356** 0.291** 0.143 Baseline outcome 0.048*** 0.432*** 0.063* 0.065*** 0.061*** Positive ITT and LATE estimates of impacts on various household well-being measures, but not all stat sig. ITT effects again invariant to intensity of exposure. Consistent w/profit effects … positive but quite dispersed hh-level outcomes. Technology is favorable on average but lots of variation in outcomes across households.
  • 23. 23 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business23 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 • SRI use rate stable at 33% in both years • 36% of farmers who adopted in year 1 disadopted SRI in year 2, replaced by 18% of initial non-adopters who adopt w/delay. • Intensity of exposure to SRI training impacts adoption, disadoption and delayed adoption following the same pattern as endline adoption. Disadoption and Delayed Adoption of SRI SRI Adoption End of Year 1 SRI Adoption end of Year 2 Total Did not Adopt Adopted Did not Adopt (Never adopters) 1475 (82.36%) (1U=448, 1T=308, 2U=386, 2T=333) (Delayed adopters) 316 (17.64%) (1U=29, 1T=101, 2U=42, 2T=144) 1791 67.15% Adopted (Disadopters) 317 (36.19%) (1U=16, 1T=189, 2U=21, 2T=91) (Persistent adopters) 559 (63.81%) (1U=14, 1T=208, 2U=13, 2T=324) 876 32.85% N % 1792 67.19% 875 32.81% 2667 100%
  • 24. 24 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business24 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Disadopters: • Relatively older and less educated, with more land. • Had highest midline cost of production. • Experienced smaller gain in profits (29%) compared to the persistent adopters (53%) at the end of year 1. Delayed Adopters: • Had lower production at the end of year 1 (24.9 kg/decimal) than persistent adopters (26.1 kg/decimal). Never Adopters: • At baseline: significantly lower cost of production and higher profits and better off than adopters. • Possibly had little (least?) to gain from adoption of the SRI. Persistent Adopters: • Had largest (smallest) midline-baseline Δprofits (Δ costs) Disadoption and Delayed Adoption of SRI
  • 25. 25 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business25 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Conclusions • Higher intensity of exposure in both cross-section and time series has big diffusion effect, positive on uptake, negative on disadoption. • Great exposure to SRI training also has significant, positive effects on rice yields, with positive but milder and not-always-significant impacts on profits and hh well-being. • LATE of SRI adoption on rice yields (24%) or profits (10% but insign.) and household well-being outcomes are consistently positive and relatively large. • Highly non-random selection-on-unobservables into SRI adoption. Exposure has pure scaling effect. • However, also high rates of disadoption, limited compliance with principles as taught, and only very modest adjustment of practices in response to more experience/training. • Patterns not consistent w/ canonical learning models: much disadoption and no improvement in performance (as distinct from adoption) with added information exposure. Consistent w/ newer models of multi object learning and selective inattention. Farmers seem to learn to whether to use SRI more than how to use SRI.
  • 26. We invite your comments and questions: Chris Barrett – cbb2@cornell.edu Thank you for your interest!
  • 27. 27 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business27 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Baseline characteristics of farmers by treatment status p-values from joint nulls 0.59 0.63 0.89 0.42 Panel A Treat Control p-value Household Characteristics Mean Std.dev Mean Std.dev Average Age of the household (above 15 years) 36.75 0.13 36.43 0.18 0.14 Average Education of the adult member of household (years) 4.31 0.04 4.34 0.06 0.67 Farm size (cultivable) last Boro season (in decimals) 163.46 2.66 165.93 2.94 0.57 Household size 5.13 0.03 5.19 0.05 0.25 Maximum education by any household member 8.51 0.06 8.66 0.09 0.14 Yield (kg/decimal) 22.28 4.84 22.44 5.50 0.12 Total cost of production 430.26 250.44 422.64 224.44 0.10 Estimated profit 440.12 255.93 445.42 341.81 0.34 No. of observations 3630 1856 Treatment Villages Only Panel B Treated Untreated p- valueHousehold Characteristics Mean Std.dev Mean Std.dev Average Age of the household (above 15 years) 36.82 0.16 36.69 0.21 0.61 Average Education of the adult member of household (years) 4.34 0.05 4.29 0.07 0.59 Farm size (cultivable) last Boro season (in decimals) 161.47 2.99 166.40 4.97 0.37 Household size 5.11 0.04 5.19 0.05 0.25 Maximum education by any household member 8.54 0.07 8.52 0.10 0.85 Yield (kg/decimal) 22.35 4.88 22.17 4.78 0.13 Total cost of production 427.63 242.69 434.77 263.54 0.23 Estimated profit 441.22 255.92 438.23 256.42 0.62 No. of observations 2226 1404 Balance between Treatment and Control
  • 28. 28 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business28 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Characteristics of trained farmers by number of treatment rounds Treatment Villages Only Variables of Interest One-time Training Village (T1) Two-time Training Village (T2) p-value Panel A; Household Characteristics (Baseline) Mean Std.dev Mean Std.dev Average Age of the household (above 15 years) 36.44 0.24 36.97 0.23 0.11 Average Education of the adult members (years) 4.34 0.08 4.30 0.07 0.72 Farm size (cultivable) last Boro season (in decimals) 167.66 4.61 164.61 4.67 0.64 Household size 5.23 0.06 5.08 0.06 0.09 Maximum education by any household member 8.64 0.12 8.45 0.11 0.21 No. of Observations (farmers) 928 1003 Panel B: Yield, Cost and Profit (Baseline) Yield (kg/decimal) 22.42 4.69 22.28 5.05 0.30 Total cost of production 425.06 239.55 430.06 245.64 0.47 Estimated profit 445.38 256.77 437.31 255.11 0.27 Panel C: Yield, Cost and Profit (Midline) SRI Adoption 49.72 50.01 49.19 50.00 0.72 Yield (kg/decimal) 26.28 7.43 26.06 6.87 0.29 Total cost of production 315.71 112.61 310.89 111.75 0.14 Estimated profit 526.93 243.37 530.63 236.78 0.60 Balance between Treatment and Control
  • 29. 29 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business29 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Same results when replace treatment category w/category interacted w/village-level treatment intensity. Endline ITT estimates by continuous treatment intensity % SRI Adoption Yield Revenue Total cost Profit One-time untreated (U1F) 15.618*** 0.235*** 0.213*** 0.198** 0.291*** One-time treated (T1F) 64.962*** 0.210*** 0.190*** 0.239** 0.206*** Two-time untreated (U2F) 24.272*** 0.229*** 0.235*** 0.206** 0.339*** Two-time treated (T2F) 84.396*** 0.225*** 0.226*** 0.208** 0.335*** Baseline outcome 0.210*** 0.259*** -0.067*** 0.040*** Observations 10,297 8,830 8,830 8,821 8,820 R2 0.286 0.073 0.090 0.043 0.017 p-value (U1F-T1F) 0.00 0.48 0.54 0.40 0.17 p-value(U1F-U2F) 0.19 0.93 0.76 0.83 0.73 p-value (T1F-T2F) 0.04 0.79 0.56 0.76 0.10 p-value (U2F-T2F) 0.00 0.91 0.82 0.91 0.93
  • 30. 30 Dyson | College of Agriculture and Life Sciences | Cornell SC Johnson College of Business30 SRI Bangladesh July 2019 Does more exposure increase farmer adherence to training? Compliance w/SRI principles as trained is very incomplete and not consistently, highly responsive to exposure intensity. Direct trainees far more likely to learn how to practice SRI than spillover adopters are. Little/mixed evidence of learning by doing (e.g., T1-T2, U1-U2) Farmers learn and adjust whether to use SRI faster than how to use SRI. Age of seedlings No of seedlings Distance b/n seedlings Alternate drying & wetting Use of organic fertilizer Mechanical weeding U11 -0.217 1.607 1.685** 12.255* 1.545 -1.810* U12 1.787* 2.342 5.497*** 3.959 10.545** 9.467*** U21 -0.026 5.130 4.106*** 10.717 4.905* -2.249** U22 0.605 7.458 9.195*** 17.603** 10.882** 4.424** T11 3.352*** 14.640*** 15.086*** 19.808*** 10.398*** 0.399 T12 4.107*** 20.244*** 24.430*** 10.689 14.416*** 12.308*** T21 2.306*** 15.035*** 14.317*** 17.439*** 11.642*** -0.617 T22 5.885*** 24.828*** 30.091*** 21.767*** 20.634*** 9.197*** Observations 33,244 33,244 33,244 33,244 33,244 33,244