120601 Briefing for Belfast Telegraph

Briefing on May 2012 poll findings for the Belfast Telegraph.
4th
June 2012

Briefing on May 2012 poll findings for the Belfast Telegraph, 4th
June 2012
Executive Summary
• The big story is that 65% of people refused to answer a question about whether they
would encourage a close relative to join the PSNI. Among Catholics and working-
class people, the figures are much higher. Among the 23% of Catholics who
answered the question, a majority would not encourage a close relative to join the
PSNI.
• The second big story is that NI people favour public service cuts over tax increases
as a solution to budget problems by 65%-35%, with majority support among all
major demographic groups and very little religious difference.
• On the other big fiscal issue, an unfunded Corporation Tax cut requiring initial
spending cuts was rejected by a narrow majority (53-47%) of those expressing an
opinion. All main demographic groups, including private sector workers rejected the
proposal, albeit narrowly in some cases.
• Structural reforms to the NI political system received a mixed reception. There is
broad support for reducing the number of MLAs at Stormont, although not quite the
bonfire of politicians one might have expected. The concept of an official opposition
was rejected with a resounding yawn.
• Catholics tend to be particularly sceptical about changes to the structures agreed in
1998.
• Everybody rates the Northern Ireland Assembly atrociously – it is hard to
exaggerate how bad these figures are – but at the same time only 18% want to get
rid of Stormont.
• Identity issues, such as those around schooling and language, are capable of
provoking communal divisions, but there is a large body of support for integration
and pluralism, and it is less middle-class than many suppose.
• A growing number of people prefer not to identify with either main religious
tradition; they tend to be young and they have low interest in Northern Ireland
party politics, but still have clear and almost evenly divided preferences on the
border.
• There is definitely a large body of opinion at least interested in the participation of
British and Irish political parties here, including a clear majority of Protestants in
favour of the participation of British political parties. The reception was interested
rather than euphoric, however. Young people are surprisingly hostile.
• A border poll is not going to produce a United Ireland through demographics, or
even come close. A clear majority favour the border in all age groups. 44% of
Catholics expressing an opinion favour keeping Northern Ireland.
• There is overwhelming support in all demographic groups for the opening of retail
outlets in tourist areas on Sundays.
• The question of alcohol prices opens wide differences between different
demographic groups, but overall 61% oppose price rises.
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June 2012
Some brief notes on the results of each question.
Q7. If a NI Assembly election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote
for as a first preference?
Northern Ireland voting behaviour tends to change slowly and steadily, and party loyalties
run deep, so it is no surprise to see all parties within a few percentage points of their
Assembly figure. Alliance will be delighted with a poll rating that makes them the 3rd
party
in the Greater Belfast area and joint third party among women. Alliance’s vote has long
been heavily skewed towards women, just as Sinn Féin’s has long been skewed towards
men. While both the Ulster Unionists and SDLP do better than average among the
youngest voters, both will be worried at their virtual collapse among 25-44 year olds.
Sinn Féin are now the largest party among Northern Ireland voters under 45.
The DUP is the only party that has a significant gap in support between private and public
sector workers. Is their relative dominance among public sector workers a result of their
large support base in the security and defence sectors?
In common with other recent surveys, a large proportion of respondents did not identify
with either main religious tradition. In the past these were assumed to be mainly people
from Unionist backgrounds, but of those identifying with any of the parties, as many
backed the SDLP or Sinn Féin (35%) as backed one of the Unionist parties. Alliance and
the Greens do very well among these voters, as one would expect, but the real story is that
69% did not choose to back any party. Is the growth in this weakly-aligned or entirely non-
aligned section of the electorate part of the reason for the recent rapid fall in turnout in
Northern Ireland elections? Will the Census figures to be released in the autumn show that
people from Nationalist backgrounds are increasingly likely to not identify with
Catholicism as a religion?
Q1. Currently government documents and letters, etc., are issued in English,
Irish and Ulster-Scots. Do you agree with this?
Opinion is quite scattered here but a clear plurality of voters support the status quo.
Interestingly, 18-24 year olds are much more likely than the rest of the population to
oppose the limited experiment with state-sponsored multilingualism and support an
English only policy; workers in the private sector, which is almost entirely English-only,
are less likely to agree with multilingualism than the more politically correct public sector.
Women are dramatically more disposed to multilingualism than English only.
There is, of course, a large minority bloc of opinion in each community which backs
multilingualism for ‘their’ community language only. Middle-class Catholics are much
more likely to support English and Irish only than middle-class Protestants are to back
English and Ulster-Scots only. What is more interesting is that Protestants are much more
disposed towards English Only and less supportive of multilingualism than Catholics.
There is still a plurality in favour of supporting all three languages among all main
demographic groups except the 18-24s.
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June 2012
Q2. Should pupils at all state schools be offered the option to play Gaelic
games?
Those with an opinion are in favour by almost 2:1. Unsurpisingly, Catholics support this
strongly. More Protestants oppose than support, but a still greater number claim to have
no opinion. Still, over a quarter of Protestants are actively in favour. ‘Nones and Others’
have an almost studied disinterest, but only 10% are actively opposed. Interestingly, those
most likely to have young school children, the 25-44s, are the age group most supportive.
Women are more supportive and, perhaps surprisingly, there is little variation by class.
Q3. Should UK and Irish parties like Conservatives, Labour, Fianna Fáil and
Fine Gael contest elections in NI?
56% of Protestants would like to see GB parties involved in some form, and a surprising
30% would like to see Irish parties involved. Catholics are colder on outside involvement;
43% would like to see Irish parties involved and 33% British parties. However, still 40%
across the community would restrict involvement to NI parties only. Only 27% would like
to see both GB and Irish parties involved.
It will surprise many that under 45s are much more hostile to outside involvement than
older voters. Indeed, among under-25s, a clear majority is in favour of keeping elections in
NI limited to NI parties.
Q4. Should the Education Minister encourage State and Catholic schools to
share facilities and/or teachers in view of falling pupil numbers and cuts in
funding?
Huge communal differences on this question. Only 51% of Catholics actively supported this
proposition, although that was still almost twice as many as opposed it. Among Protestants
with an opinion, support runs better than 4:1 in favour. At the social extremes, both DEs
and, surprisingly, ABs are more sceptical than the more pragmatic C1s and C2s in the
middle. Young people are also less supportive than average. The proposition is still
supported by a 3:1 majority of those holding an opinion.
Q5. Do you believe there should be an official opposition at Stormont, similar
to Westminster and the Dáil?
Pretty soundly rejected, actually. A high no opinion rate of 37% which climbs to 48%
among social class DE. Women don’t care – 44% No Opinion – and neither do young
people (47%). Men hate it - 51% of men overall and 71% of those expressing an opinion
reject it. This is a big chattering classes issue, though. Highest support for this is among
ABs, supporters narrowly outweigh opponents by 35% to 34%, but even 30% of the BT9
brigade don’t express an opinion.
Poor people don’t care about this and Catholics hate it; Sinn Féin doesn’t like it
ideologically anyway, and they have a veto, so it isn’t going to happen. But with a large
block of ABs in favour and ‘Others and Nones’, though not caring all that much, also
having a core of support for the concept of an official opposition, there is certainly space
for an opposition party to try and claim.
Q6. If a close relative wanted to join the PSNI, would you encourage them?
The refusal rate is off the scale! 65% overall, 74% of men, 77% of Catholics refuse to answer
this question. Of the tiny number of Catholics who dare venture an opinion, 54% would not
encourage a close relative to join the PSNI. This is the story of the poll. There is real fear
about this sort of question, still, in Northern Ireland. 52% of ABs refused to answer. 64% of
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June 2012
Protestants refuse to answer. Among poor people and even more so among poor Catholics,
the fear becomes acute.
What people actually think and why they think it must be a serious question for the
Policing Board, the Chief Constable, and the Minister of Justice.
The one bright spot is that those least affected by The Troubles, the 18-24s, are the only
group where half of people answered the question. The rip in the silver lining is that over a
third of these young people would not encourage a close relative to join the PSNI.
Two parts of the question can only have heightened the number of people refusing to
answer. I note that the phrase ‘close relative’ will have personalised the question intensely,
and asking would people ‘encourage’ rather than a less strong phrase like ‘be content’ will
also put some off. But that is worth drawing out. Policing is still an issue where people are
afraid to say what they think.
Q8. The NI Assembly has a higher number of members at 108 than other UK
regional assemblies. Would you like to see the number of MLAs…
A more complex and balanced range of views than most would suspect. I’m amazed that as
many as 14% support retaining the current number of MLAs, and that as few as 18% want
to abolish Stormont. Only 9% of Catholics want to get rid of Stormont, marginally lower
than Protestants. The support for abolition is centred in the ‘Others and Nones’, 33% of
whom want to abolish Stormont (!) – now you see why this demographic group is
potentially important. At present is mostly doesn’t vote either. Is there a gap in the market
for an anti-system populist less tribally identified than Allister?
However, if the mooted reduction to 78 or 80 seats ever materialises, it would more than
slake the public’s currently expressed appetite for sacrifice of politicians. Hard pressed C1s,
often fond of the Mail and Express are those least likely to support the current
arrangement and most likely to support big reductions. Protestants in general like the idea
of a slimmed down Stormont, and 18-24 year olds love it!
The big surprise for me is that as many as 28% of Catholics want to keep the current
allocation of 108 MLAs, and a whopping 63% of Catholics support either that or only a very
slight reduction of seats. There seems to be a general pattern of Catholics being very
conservative about changes to the settlement of 1998.
Q9. Compared to Direct Rule from Westminster, how would you rate the
performance of the Northern Ireland Assembly?
In any other society, this would be the big news from this poll… but it will come as no
surprise that people in Northern Ireland think their government is awful. Net approval
ratings of -40% would doom any government that was not guaranteed re-election. But this
is not news.
The upper middle-classes are inclined to be scathing about the Assembly, while the
working-classes are more inclined to think it is merely irrelevant. The contrast with the
broad support for the structures is stark.
Younger people are more critical of the Assembly than their more phlegmatic elders. But
its ratings are atrocious across all demographic groups. Its best net approval rating of -34%
comes among C2s, and that’s mainly because most of them don’t see it has made any
difference and a lot of the rest just don’t care. The number of people rating the Assembly’s
performance as ‘Excellent’ is within the margin of error of zero.
Q10. Current public finances are under strain. Do you think any shortfall
should be made up from cuts and efficiencies in public spending, or increased
taxes and/or introducing local taxes such as water rates?
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June 2012
Another big story out of the poll. Although a hefty 37% express no opinion, almost a 2:1
majority of those who do favour cuts over taxes. Men are, as in many countries, more
favourable to public spending cuts than women, and private sector workers are
unsurprisingly keenest of all. Both the very young and pensioners are those most opposed
to cuts. Still, a clear majority in every demographic group heavily supports cuts over tax
increases.
There is little sectarian difference. Catholic and Protestant support for cuts is within the
margin of error of one another in the high 60s.
Q11. Business opinion states that reducing Corporation Tax, that is tax on
companies, will attract investment and jobs to NI. Would you accept an initial
reduction in public spending to pay for this?
This gets surprisingly little wind. Again, a big percentage not answering (36%), but those
who do narrowly oppose an unfunded Corporation Tax cut by 53-47%. There is a
significant religious difference, with Catholics most opposed and ‘Others and Nones’ the
group giving a Corporation Tax cut the largest support. Otherwise there is little difference
by class, age or, surprisingly, sector of employment.
Q12. If a border referendum was held within the next year, how would you
vote?
A clear majority against a United Ireland, including 44% of Catholics expressing an
opinion. A remarkably high response rate, including from a very heterogeneous group of
‘Others and Nones’, who usually show little interest in NI constitutional issues but care
about this and are remarkably split 50-50 on a United Ireland over a 20 year time frame.
Protestant support for a United Ireland remains tiny, and even the narrow majority of
Catholics in favour take an ‘Oh Lord Make Me Chaste But Not Yet’ approach.
Q13. Should shops/retail outlets in tourist areas be allowed to open on
Sundays?
Overwhelming support across all sections of the community. The 65+ age group is the
most sceptical of all demograpghic groups, and even they support by 4:1.
Q14. Is the price of alcohol in NI off-licence outlets and supermarkets too
high, too low, or about right.
A narrow plurality of 38% says drink is too cheap, but that means 62% are not in favour of
a price increase. There are enormous gender, religious and class differences on this
question. 41% of DEs say the price of alcohol is too high, as against only 21% of ABs. 38%
of men think alcohol is too dear, against only 24% of women. A whopping 48% of 18-24s
want cheaper drink, the highest level of support for that proposition among any
demographic group. And while Catholics and Protestants have about the same lack of
support for higher drink prices, Protestants are more inclined to say the price is right at the
moment, while Catholics are the most likely to say they are too high.
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June 2012
Q7. If a NI Assembly election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for as a first preference? (Excludes those who won’t vote,
won’t say, or stated they were voting outside the 7 main parites.)
TUV DUP UUP Alliance Green SDLP SF
Overall 3% 31% 11% 11% 4% 13% 28%
Change since 2011
Assembly Election n/c +1% -2% +3% +2% -1% +2%
Male 5% 30% 10% 8% 3% 11% 32%
Female 2% 31% 12% 14% 4% 14% 23%
AB 3% 28% 14% 18% 7% 15% 16%
C1 2% 28% 13% 15% 3% 14% 24%
C2 4% 29% 16% 10% 2% 15% 23%
DE 3% 38% 6% 6% 1% 8% 37%
ABC1 3% 28% 13% 17% 5% 14% 20%
C2DE 4% 34% 11% 8% 2% 11% 30%
Public Sector 3% 36% 12% 10% 2% 11% 26%
Private Sector 3% 27% 11% 12% 3% 14% 30%
18-24 2% 15% 15% 20% 10% 16% 23%
25-44 1% 33% 5% 9% 5% 9% 38%
45-64 4% 35% 12% 10% 2% 13% 26%
65+ 6% 31% 15% 10% 2% 14% 22%
Protestant 10% 51% 17% 11% 3% 5% 3%
Catholic 0% 7% 3% 8% 2% 24% 55%
Other or None 0% 24% 11% 22% 8% 12% 23%
Q7. If a NI Assembly election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for as a first preference? (All respondents.)
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June 2012
TUV DUP UUP Alliance Green SDLP SF
Other, Refused or
Won't Vote
Overall 2% 16% 6% 6% 2% 7% 14% 48%
Male 3% 21% 7% 6% 2% 8% 22% 32%
Female 1% 13% 5% 5% 2% 6% 9% 59%
AB 1% 15% 8% 10% 4% 8% 9% 44%
C1 1% 12% 5% 7% 1% 6% 10% 57%
C2 2% 12% 7% 4% 1% 6% 10% 57%
DE 2% 19% 3% 3% 1% 4% 19% 50%
ABC1 1% 13% 6% 8% 2% 7% 10% 52%
C2DE 2% 16% 5% 4% 1% 5% 14% 53%
Public Sector 1% 17% 6% 4% 1% 5% 12% 54%
Private Sector 1% 12% 5% 5% 1% 6% 14% 54%
18-24 1% 7% 7% 9% 5% 7% 11% 53%
25-44 1% 18% 3% 5% 3% 5% 21% 45%
45-64 2% 18% 6% 5% 1% 7% 13% 49%
65+ 3% 16% 8% 5% 1% 7% 11% 49%
Protestant 6% 34% 12% 7% 2% 4% 2% 33%
Catholic 0% 4% 2% 5% 1% 13% 30% 45%
Other or None 0% 7% 3% 7% 2% 4% 7% 69%
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June 2012
Q1. Currently government documents and letters, etc., are issued in English, Irish and Ulster-Scots. Do you agree with this?
All 3
languages
English
and Irish
only
English and
Ulster-Scots
only
English
only
No
opinion
Of those expressing an opinion
All 3
languages
English
and
Irish
only
English
and
Ulster-
Scots only
English
only
Overall 35% 11% 7% 26% 21% 44% 14% 9% 33%
Male 29% 11% 7% 29% 24% 39% 15% 9% 38%
Female 39% 11% 7% 24% 19% 48% 14% 9% 29%
AB 40% 8% 2% 29% 20% 50% 10% 3% 37%
C1 37% 9% 5% 27% 22% 48% 11% 6% 34%
C2 35% 9% 10% 26% 20% 44% 11% 12% 33%
DE 38% 11% 9% 20% 23% 49% 14% 11% 26%
ABC1 39% 8% 4% 28% 21% 49% 11% 5% 35%
C2DE 36% 10% 9% 23% 22% 46% 13% 12% 30%
Public Sector 41% 10% 7% 20% 22% 53% 13% 9% 26%
Private Sector 37% 8% 3% 30% 21% 47% 11% 4% 39%
18-24 20% 10% 6% 36% 28% 28% 13% 9% 50%
25-44 38% 10% 7% 24% 20% 48% 13% 9% 31%
45-64 39% 12% 7% 24% 18% 48% 14% 9% 29%
65+ 34% 13% 8% 24% 21% 43% 16% 10% 31%
Protestant 34% 1% 10% 33% 23% 44% 1% 12% 42%
Catholic 37% 21% 0% 21% 22% 47% 27% 0% 26%
Other or None 37% 7% 7% 26% 23% 48% 10% 9% 33%
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June 2012
Q2. Should pupils at all state schools be offered the option to play Gaelic games?
Yes No
No
opinion
Of those expressing
an opinion
Yes No
Overall 42% 23% 35% 64% 36%
Male 39% 25% 36% 61% 39%
Female 43% 22% 35% 66% 34%
AB 45% 22% 33% 67% 33%
C1 46% 19% 36% 71% 29%
C2 43% 20% 37% 69% 31%
DE 42% 21% 37% 67% 33%
ABC1 45% 20% 35% 69% 31%
C2DE 43% 20% 37% 68% 32%
Public Sector 46% 17% 37% 72% 28%
Private Sector 44% 24% 32% 64% 36%
18-24 39% 25% 36% 61% 39%
25-44 45% 20% 35% 70% 30%
45-64 40% 24% 37% 63% 38%
65+ 42% 25% 34% 63% 37%
Protestant 27% 34% 39% 44% 56%
Catholic 56% 10% 34% 85% 15%
Other or None 41% 10% 50% 81% 19%
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June 2012
Q3. Should UK and Irish parties like Conservatives, Labour, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael contest elections in NI?
Yes, UK
and Irish
parties
Yes, UK
parties
only
Yes, Irish
parties
only
No, NI
parties
only
Overall 27% 16% 17% 40%
Male 28% 15% 15% 42%
Female 26% 17% 18% 39%
AB 28% 16% 14% 42%
C1 26% 13% 16% 44%
C2 28% 12% 17% 42%
DE 29% 17% 19% 35%
ABC1 27% 14% 15% 43%
C2DE 29% 15% 18% 39%
Public Sector 29% 12% 16% 43%
Private Sector 22% 18% 16% 44%
18-24 15% 16% 16% 52%
25-44 26% 15% 15% 43%
45-64 33% 16% 16% 35%
65+ 27% 18% 18% 37%
Protestant 27% 29% 3% 42%
Catholic 28% 5% 18% 49%
Other or None 25% 14% 19% 42%
Q4. Should the Education Minister encourage State and Catholic schools to share facilities and/or teachers in view of falling pupil
numbers and cuts in funding?
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June 2012
Yes No
No
opinion
Of those expressing
an opinion
Yes No
Overall 54% 19% 27% 74% 26%
Male 56% 17% 26% 76% 24%
Female 52% 20% 28% 72% 28%
AB 47% 25% 29% 66% 34%
C1 59% 17% 24% 78% 22%
C2 56% 18% 26% 76% 24%
DE 51% 22% 27% 69% 31%
ABC1 54% 20% 26% 73% 27%
C2DE 54% 20% 26% 73% 27%
Public Sector 58% 20% 22% 74% 26%
Private Sector 58% 20% 22% 74% 26%
18-24 44% 22% 34% 67% 33%
25-44 53% 20% 26% 72% 28%
45-64 57% 17% 26% 77% 23%
65+ 55% 18% 27% 75% 25%
Protestant 70% 17% 14% 81% 19%
Catholic 51% 28% 21% 65% 35%
Other or None 49% 17% 34% 74% 26%
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June 2012
Q5. Do you believe there should be an official opposition at Stormont, similar to Westminster and the Dáil?
Yes No
No
opinion
Of those expressing
an opinion
Yes No
Overall 23% 39% 37% 37% 63%
Male 21% 51% 27% 29% 71%
Female 24% 32% 44% 44% 56%
AB 35% 34% 30% 51% 49%
C1 24% 39% 37% 39% 61%
C2 17% 42% 40% 29% 71%
DE 16% 36% 48% 30% 70%
ABC1 29% 37% 34% 44% 56%
C2DE 16% 40% 44% 29% 71%
Public Sector 26% 36% 38% 42% 58%
Private Sector 23% 37% 40% 38% 62%
18-24 20% 33% 47% 38% 62%
25-44 26% 39% 36% 40% 60%
45-64 26% 41% 34% 39% 61%
65+ 19% 42% 39% 31% 69%
Protestant 25% 36% 39% 41% 59%
Catholic 21% 48% 31% 31% 69%
Other or None 27% 27% 46% 50% 50%
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June 2012
Q6. If a close relative wanted to join the PSNI, would you encourage them?
Yes No
No
opinion
Of those expressing
an opinion
Yes No
Overall 25% 10% 65% 73% 28%
Male 17% 10% 74% 64% 36%
Female 31% 10% 60% 76% 24%
AB 39% 9% 52% 81% 19%
C1 26% 10% 64% 73% 27%
C2 19% 11% 70% 64% 36%
DE 21% 9% 71% 70% 30%
ABC1 32% 10% 59% 77% 23%
C2DE 20% 10% 70% 67% 33%
Public Sector 24% 9% 67% 73% 27%
Private Sector 23% 9% 68% 73% 27%
18-24 33% 17% 50% 66% 34%
25-44 22% 8% 70% 73% 27%
45-64 27% 8% 65% 76% 24%
65+ 23% 8% 69% 73% 27%
Protestant 32% 4% 64% 90% 10%
Catholic 10% 12% 77% 46% 54%
Other or None 24% 11% 64% 68% 32%
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June 2012
Q8. The NI Assembly has a higher number of members at 108 than other UK regional assemblies. Would you like to see the number of
MLAs…
Remain
the same
Reduced
to 90-
108
Reduced
to less
than 90
Abolish
Stormont
Overall 14% 33% 36% 18%
Male 14% 32% 38% 17%
Female 13% 33% 36% 18%
AB 16% 29% 36% 18%
C1 9% 35% 38% 18%
C2 13% 33% 37% 17%
DE 15% 34% 36% 16%
ABC1 12% 33% 37% 18%
C2DE 14% 33% 37% 17%
Public Sector 13% 32% 33% 23%
Private Sector 15% 32% 38% 14%
18-24 6% 33% 46% 15%
25-44 15% 32% 33% 19%
45-64 16% 32% 35% 17%
65+ 13% 33% 36% 18%
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June 2012
Protestant 8% 39% 43% 10%
Catholic 28% 35% 28% 9%
Other or None 7% 26% 34% 33%
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June 2012
Q9. Compared to Direct Rule from Westminster, how would you rate the performance of the Northern Ireland Assembly?
Page 17 of 22
Excellent Good
No
Differenc
e Poor
Very
Poor
No
opinion
Excellent Good
No
Differenc
e Poor
Very
Poor
Overall 1% 8% 33% 27% 14% 17% 1% 9% 40% 33% 17%
Male 0% 6% 35% 32% 12% 15% 0% 7% 41% 37% 14%
Female 1% 9% 32% 24% 16% 18% 1% 11% 39% 30% 19%
AB 0% 11% 27% 29% 25% 9% 0% 12% 30% 31% 27%
C1 1% 7% 37% 28% 11% 16% 1% 9% 44% 33% 13%
C2 1% 6% 44% 26% 10% 14% 1% 7% 51% 30% 12%
DE 0% 6% 39% 22% 11% 23% 0% 7% 50% 28% 14%
ABC1 1% 9% 33% 28% 16% 13% 1% 10% 38% 32% 19%
C2DE 0% 6% 42% 26% 10% 15% 1% 7% 50% 31% 12%
Public Sector 0% 8% 35% 26% 17% 13% 1% 10% 40% 31% 19%
Private Sector 0% 6% 41% 22% 16% 14% 1% 8% 47% 26% 19%
18-24 0% 9% 27% 20% 15% 28% 0% 13% 38% 28% 21%
25-44 1% 7% 31% 26% 18% 17% 1% 8% 38% 32% 22%
45-64 1% 9% 32% 29% 16% 13% 1% 11% 37% 33% 18%
65+ 0% 7% 40% 30% 8% 15% 0% 8% 47% 36% 10%
Protestant 1% 6% 35% 31% 17% 17% 1% 7% 42% 37% 13%
Catholic 0% 8% 38% 30% 13% 13% 0% 9% 44% 34% 12%
Other or None 0% 7% 26% 26% 19% 19% 1% 9% 32% 32% 26%

June 2012
Q9. Compared to Direct Rule from Westminster, how would you rate the performance of the Northern Ireland Assembly? (Net
favourability, i.e. good and very good minus poor and very poor.)
Page 18 of 22
Net favourability
Overall -40%
Male -45%
Female -37%
AB -47%
C1 -36%
C2 -34%
DE -35%
ABC1 -41%
C2DE -36%
Public Sector -40%
Private Sector -36%
18-24 -37%
25-44 -44%
45-64 -39%
65+ -37%
Protestant -42%
Catholic -37%
Other or None -49%

June 2012
Q10. Current public finances are under strain. Do you think any shortfall should be made up from cuts and efficiencies in public
spending, or increased taxes and/or introducing local taxes such as water rates?
Cuts Taxes
No
opinion
Of those expressing
an opinion
Cuts Taxes
Overall 41% 22% 37% 65% 35%
Male 44% 19% 38% 70% 30%
Female 38% 24% 37% 62% 38%
AB 41% 27% 33% 60% 40%
C1 42% 22% 36% 66% 34%
C2 37% 19% 43% 66% 34%
DE 37% 19% 44% 66% 34%
ABC1 41% 24% 35% 64% 36%
C2DE 37% 19% 44% 66% 34%
Public Sector 39% 23% 38% 63% 37%
Private Sector 43% 16% 41% 73% 27%
18-24 44% 27% 30% 62% 38%
25-44 43% 18% 39% 70% 30%
45-64 43% 22% 35% 66% 34%
65+ 34% 23% 43% 59% 41%
Protestant 43% 22% 35% 66% 34%
Catholic 38% 18% 44% 68% 32%
Other or None 40% 25% 36% 62% 38%
Page 19 of 22

June 2012
Q11. Business opinion states that reducing Corporation Tax, that is tax on companies, will attract investment and jobs to NI. Would you
accept an initial reduction in public spending to pay for this?
Yes No
No
opinion
Of those expressing
an opinion
Yes No
Overall 30% 34% 36% 47% 53%
Male 30% 38% 32% 45% 55%
Female 30% 32% 38% 48% 52%
AB 28% 36% 36% 44% 56%
C1 28% 35% 37% 45% 55%
C2 27% 35% 38% 44% 56%
DE 28% 35% 38% 44% 56%
ABC1 28% 35% 37% 44% 56%
C2DE 27% 35% 38% 44% 56%
Public Sector 30% 35% 35% 46% 54%
Private Sector 26% 35% 39% 43% 57%
18-24 36% 38% 27% 49% 51%
25-44 30% 35% 35% 46% 54%
45-64 29% 35% 36% 45% 55%
65+ 28% 30% 41% 48% 52%
Protestant 30% 39% 31% 44% 56%
Catholic 24% 40% 36% 37% 63%
Other or None 30% 31% 39% 49% 51%
Q12. If a border referendum was held within the next year, how would you vote?
Page 20 of 22

June 2012
Yes
Yes, in
20 years
No, keep
NI
No
opinion
Yes
Yes, in
20 years
No, keep
NI
Overall 7% 25% 55% 14% 8% 29% 63%
Male 9% 25% 54% 12% 11% 28% 61%
Female 5% 25% 55% 15% 6% 29% 64%
AB 2% 27% 47% 24% 3% 35% 62%
C1 5% 26% 54% 14% 6% 31% 63%
C2 7% 21% 61% 12% 8% 24% 69%
DE 8% 25% 57% 11% 9% 28% 64%
ABC1 4% 26% 51% 18% 5% 32% 63%
C2DE 7% 23% 59% 11% 8% 26% 66%
Public Sector 6% 23% 57% 14% 6% 27% 67%
Private Sector 4% 25% 54% 16% 5% 30% 64%
18-24 15% 18% 59% 8% 16% 20% 64%
25-44 7% 26% 52% 15% 8% 30% 61%
45-64 5% 27% 52% 16% 6% 32% 62%
65+ 5% 26% 58% 12% 5% 29% 65%
Protestant 0% 4% 86% 10% 0% 4% 96%
Catholic 7% 41% 38% 14% 8% 48% 44%
Other or None 12% 31% 43% 14% 14% 36% 50%
Page 21 of 22

June 2012
Q13. Should shops/retail outlets in tourist areas be allowed to open on Sundays?
Q13 - Sunday
Shopping Yes No
No
opinion
Of those expressing
an opinion
Yes No
Overall 76% 10% 14% 89% 11%
Male 78% 10% 13% 89% 11%
Female 75% 10% 15% 89% 11%
AB 73% 9% 18% 89% 11%
C1 81% 7% 12% 93% 7%
C2 79% 7% 14% 92% 8%
DE 76% 10% 14% 88% 12%
ABC1 78% 7% 15% 91% 9%
C2DE 78% 9% 14% 90% 10%
Public Sector 79% 7% 14% 91% 9%
Private Sector 78% 8% 14% 90% 10%
18-24 80% 6% 15% 93% 7%
25-44 80% 6% 14% 93% 7%
45-64 79% 7% 14% 91% 9%
65+ 68% 18% 15% 79% 21%
Protestant 78% 8% 14% 91% 9%
Catholic 92% 3% 6% 97% 3%
Other or None 68% 12% 20% 85% 15%
Page 22 of 22

June 2012
Q14. Is the price of alcohol in NI off-licence outlets and supermarkets too high, too low, or about right?
Q14 - Alcohol Prices Too High
About
Right Too Low
Overall 29% 32% 38%
Male 38% 36% 26%
Female 24% 40% 36%
AB 21% 41% 38%
C1 30% 38% 32%
C2 25% 40% 34%
DE 41% 34% 25%
ABC1 26% 40% 35%
C2DE 33% 37% 30%
Public Sector 30% 38% 32%
Private Sector 27% 44% 29%
18-24 48% 32% 20%
25-44 31% 35% 34%
45-64 23% 49% 28%
65+ 26% 33% 41%
Protestant 24% 47% 30%
Catholic 33% 39% 28%
Other or None 31% 29% 40%
Page 23 of 22

120601 Briefing for Belfast Telegraph

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