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![Results: Anthropometric indicators
weight (lb) height (in) stunting anemia days sick
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
coh97 x rain shock -0.613 -0.466** . -0.0323 0.346
[0.6137] [0.2190] . [0.0624] [0.2652]
coh98 x rain shock -0.837* -0.709*** 0.127* -0.0132 0.00235
[0.4806] [0.2176] [0.0722] [0.0336] [0.1813]
coh99 x rain shock -0.733 -0.555** 0.140** 0.00325 -0.232
[0.4399] [0.2483] [0.0672] [0.0368] [0.1860]
coh00 x rain shock -0.145 -0.426* 0.140** 0.00877 -0.00481
[0.3484] [0.2485] [0.0630] [0.0338] [0.2043]
coh01 x rain shock -0.468 -0.189 0.115* 0.00671 0.0899
[0.3742] [0.2052] [0.0653] [0.0616] [0.2517]
Observations 3729 3705 2777 3765 3377
R2 0.58 0.76 0.09 0.03 0.02
Mean 33.42 38.08 0.384 0.273 1.282
Controlling for household and individual characteristics
Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets]
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 34 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-34-320.jpg)
![Results: Cognitive development indicators (log)
Peabody Test Woodcock-Mu˜oz Test
n
working short term visual-spatial
language memory memory thinking
(1) (2) (3) (4)
coh97 x rain shock -0.216** -0.194* -0.000168 -0.133***
[0.0967] [0.1042] [0.0257] [0.0424]
coh98 x rain shock -0.209*** -0.199*** 0.0139 -0.121***
[0.0601] [0.0644] [0.0322] [0.0335]
coh99 x rain shock -0.148** -0.162*** -0.0532 -0.111**
[0.0682] [0.0598] [0.0370] [0.0493]
coh00 x rain shock -0.0258 -0.147** 0.0173 -0.143**
[0.0672] [0.0568] [0.0374] [0.0541]
coh01 x rain shock -0.225 -0.0300 -0.0755 0.0364
[0.6933] [0.0549] [0.0552] [0.0899]
Observations 2835 3522 3385 2967
R2 0.33 0.32 0.48 0.38
Controlling for household and individual characteristics
SE clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 36 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-36-320.jpg)
![Results: Motor skills indicators
balance ability to ability to
(seconds) walk backward walk straight
(1) (2) (3)
coh97 x rain shock -0.718** 0.0228 0.0140
[0.3420] [0.0162] [0.0117]
coh98 x rain shock -0.164 0.0136 0.0220*
[0.2609] [0.0130] [0.0118]
coh99 x rain shock -0.357 0.0174 -0.0371**
[0.3408] [0.0155] [0.0156]
coh00 x rain shock -0.210 -0.0216 -0.00701
[0.3739] [0.0283] [0.0374]
coh01 x rain shock 0.0831 -0.0308 -0.0514
[0.4352] [0.0563] [0.0509]
Observations 3563 3693 3663
R2 0.33 0.16 0.24
Mean 8.286 0.891 0.843
Controlling for household and individual characteristics
SE clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 38 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-38-320.jpg)
![Mechanisms: Income
Effect of rainfall shocks on income at different time periods (years)
Dependent Variables Coeff Std Dev
Total household income (log)
incomet -0.395*** (0.052)
incomet+1 -0.291*** (0.052)
incomet+2 -0.263*** (0.042)
HH income from agriculture (log)
agricultural incomet -0.276*** (0.047)
agricultural incomet+1 -0.268*** (0.056)
agricultural incomet+2 -0.181*** (0.044)
Each line shows the result of separate regressions
Controlling for household head and household characteristics
Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets]
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 43 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-43-320.jpg)
![Mechanisms: Transfers
Effect of rainfall shocks on formal and informal transfers
at the time of the shock
Variables Binary Coeff Std Dev
=1 if household received government aid
food aidt 0.047** (0.021)
other aidt 0.006 (0.034)
=1 if household received informal transfers
from familyt -0.042 (0.043)
from neighbort -0.028*** (0.009)
Each line shows the result of separate regressions
Controlling for household head and household characteristics
Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets]
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 44 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-44-320.jpg)
![Mechanisms: Food consumption
Effect of rainfall shocks on food consumption (log)
at different time periods (years)
Food consumption is normalized using Adults Equivalents (AE)
Variables Mean Std Dev
food consumptiont (pesos) -0.100*** (0.035)
food consumptiont+1 (pesos) -0.115*** (0.034)
food consumptiont+2 (pesos) -0.149*** (0.055)
food consumptiont (kg) -0.027 (0.036)
food consumptiont+1 (kg) 0.003 (0.030)
food consumptiont+2 (kg) 0.042 (0.057)
Each line shows the result of separate regressions
Controlling for household head and household characteristics
Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets]
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 45 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-45-320.jpg)
![Mechanisms: Diet composition
Effect of rainfall shocks on diet composition (log)
at different time periods (years)
Food consumption is normalized using Adults Equivalents (AE)
Variables Coeff Std Dev
tortilla consumptiont (pesos) 0.132** (0.054)
tortilla consumptiont+1 (pesos) -0.085 (0.064)
tortilla consumptiont+2 (pesos) -0.218*** (0.069)
animal consumptiont (pesos) -0.052 (0.085)
animal consumptiont+1 (pesos) -0.145* (0.075)
animal consumptiont+2 (pesos) -0.171** (0.076)
fruit and vegetable consumptiont (pesos) -0.200*** (0.057)
fruit and vegetable consumptiont+1 (pesos) -0.078 (0.049)
fruit and vegetable consumptiont+2 (pesos) -0.143** (0.056)
Each line shows the result of separate regressions
Controlling for household head and household characteristics
Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets]
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 46 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-46-320.jpg)
![Mechanisms: Health and medicine expenditures
Effect of rainfall shocks on child health and medicine expenditures (log)
at different time periods (years)
Variables Coeff Std Dev
children reported sick
children sickt (% in the HH) 0.011 (0.022)
children sickt+1 (% in the HH) 0.025 (0.027)
children sickt+2 (% in the HH) 0.016 (0.031)
medicine expenditures (log)
medicine expenditurest -0.361*** (0.121)
medicine expenditurest+1 -0.303** (0.113)
medicine expenditurest+2 0.043 (0.128)
Each line shows the result of separate regressions
Controlling for household head and household characteristics
Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets]
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 47 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-47-320.jpg)
![Role of Progresa: Anthropometric indicators
weight (lb) height (in) stunting anemia days sick
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Rain shock -0.516 -0.467** 0.126*** 0.0297 0.0847
[0.4104] [0.2298] [0.0357] [0.0254] [0.1768]
Treatment -0.181 -0.0598 0.0118 0.0510* -0.0997
[0.4066] [0.2182] [0.0303] [0.0307] [0.1689]
Treatment x Rain shock -0.702 -0.255 0.00271 -0.0407 0.0485
[0.5705] [0.3153] [0.0505] [0.0374] [0.2321]
Observations 259 259 259 258 259
R2 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.01 0.01
Mean 33.92 38.29 0.301 0.261 1.380
Robust Standard errors [in brackets]
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 52 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-52-320.jpg)
![Role of Progresa: Cognitive development indicators
Peabody Test Wodcoock-Mu˜oz Test
n
language working short term visual-spatial
skills memory memory thinking
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Rain shock -0.159** -0.137** -0.100** -0.139***
[0.0762] [0.0684] [0.0406] [0.0439]
Treatment 0.0330 -0.00983 -0.0419 -0.0459
[0.0724] [0.0650] [0.0402] [0.0452]
Treatment x Rain shock -0.0197 -0.0463 0.0592 0.0466
[0.0976] [0.0864] [0.0556] [0.0606]
Observations 253 259 259 259
R2 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.06
Controlling for household and individual characteristics
Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets]
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 53 / 63](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/amdpresentationslides11292012-130108161656-phpapp01/85/11-29-2012-Marta-Vicarelli-53-320.jpg)
11.29.2012 - Marta Vicarelli
- 1. ENSO and Mexicanchildren Medium-term effects of early-life weather shocks on cognitive and health outcomes Arturo Aguilar Marta Vicarelli Harvard University Yale University November 29, 2012 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 1 / 63
- 2. Motivation Conditions affecting individuals at early stages of life tend to have long-term effects Health, education, socioeconomic status (Maccini and Yang, 2009) Physical and mental disabilities (Almond, 2006; Almond and Mazumder, 2011) Weather shocks are the most important self-reported risk faced by rural households (Skoufias, 1997; Dercon and Krishnan, 2000; Gine, Townsend and Vickery, 2008) El Ni˜o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) n Recurring climatic event with a 5 to 7 year cycle Affects hydro-meteorological patterns causing extreme weather events (e.g. droughts, floods, heat waves) Global impacts (Cane et al., 2004) Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 2 / 63
- 3. Research Questions 1 Estimate the effects of ENSO-related weather shocks in early-life on medium-term individual well-being (human capital formation): Cognitive development Health and physical development Motor skills 2 Investigate possible mechanisms through which weather shocks could be driving these results Income Nutrition Health 3 Assess the potential mitigating effects of a randomized poverty reduction intervention: Mexico’s Progresa Conditional Cash Transfer program Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 3 / 63
- 4. Contributions and relatedliterature 1 Long-term effects of shocks in early-childhood Maccini and Yang (2009), Almond (2006), Almond and Mazumder (2011) Contribution: Examines specific medium-term effects on human-capital formation (e.g. memory, language development) which might be driving long-term effects 2 Role of weather shocks Maccini and Yang (2009), Munshi (2003), Baez and Santos (2007) Contribution: Use ENSO-related extreme rain shocks at the end of the agricultural season to identify exogenous income shocks 3 Progresa’s effects Fernald et al. (2008), Fernald and Gertler (2005), Gertler (2004) Contribution: Determine if the Conditional Cash Transfers provided mitigation effects to children affected by the shocks Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 4 / 63
- 5. A glimpse atthe results Main Results Four to five years after the shock, exposed children show: Lower cognitive abilities (11 to 21 percent) Receptive language, working memory, and visual-spatial processing Lower weight (0.28 to 0.38 kg) and lower height (1.1 to 1.8 cm) Minor reduction in gross motor skills Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 5 / 63
- 6. A glimpse atthe results Mechanisms The ENSO-related weather shock had contemporaneous and persistent effects Income: contraction up to 2 years after the shock Food consumption and diet composition: negatively affected Health: no significant self-reported effect immediately after the shock Role of Progresa No evidence of Progresa’s mitigating effects has been found Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 6 / 63
- 7. Outline 1 Background 2 Data 3 Empirical specification 4 Results 5 Mechanisms 6 The role of Progresa 7 Conclusions Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 7 / 63
- 8. El Ni˜o SouthernOscillation n ENSO is a non-regular cyclical climatic pattern associated to changes in tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature and pressure. ENSO generates weather extremes across the globe, especially in countries bordering the Pacific Ocean. El Ni˜o 1997-1998 n La Ni˜a 1998-1999 n Sizeable effects in weather-sensitive industries (e.g. fishing and agriculture) (Cane et al., 2004) Large effects for developing countries that rely on rain-fed agriculture (90% of households in our sample) Use extreme floods during the harvest season as exogenous income shocks Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 8 / 63
- 9. El Ni˜o SouthernOscillation n Figure: Satellite image showing sea surface heights relative to normal conditions. Red and white areas are related to above average sea surface temperatures and blue and purple areas to below average sea surface temperatures Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 9 / 63
- 10. Outline 1 Background 2 Data 3 Empirical specification 4 Results 5 Mechanisms 6 The role of Progresa 7 Conclusions Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 10 / 63
- 11. Data: Weather Gridded precipitation data Source: UEA CRU TS2p1 (Mitchell, 2005) Temporal resolution: monthly Spatial resolution: 0.5 x 0.5 degrees We calculate the Monthly Standardized Anomaly Anomaly = difference with respect to 1960-1999 average levels Standardized = measured in standard deviation terms Weather shock definition: rain shock = 1 if standardized anomaly for Sep-Oct > 0.7 Sensitivity tests using different thresholds Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 11 / 63
- 12. Data: Weather Standardized anomaly is above 0.7 about 16% of the time Standardized anomaly distribution (Sept-Oct) Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 12 / 63
- 13. Data: Weather Monthly Precipitation Standardized Anomalies 4 Growing Season A M J JJ A S O N 2 0 -2 97 98 99 Year Figure: Maize calendar: Planting season (Apr-Jun). Moisture sensitive season (Jul-Aug). Maturation and Harvesting (Sep-Nov) Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 13 / 63
- 14. Data: Weather Precipitation Standardized Anomalies (UEA CRU Ts2p1) 1999 30˚N 25˚N Latitude 20˚N 15˚N 120˚W 115˚W 110˚W 105˚W 100˚W 95˚W 90˚W Longitude Oct 1999 -2.4 -2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4 precipitation Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 14 / 63
- 15. Data: Weather We spatially joined Weather and Socioeconomic Data 24°0'0"N 30˚N 22°0'0"N 25˚N Latitude 20°0'0"N 20˚N 15˚N 18°0'0"N 120˚W 115˚W 110˚W 105˚W 100˚W 95˚W 90˚W Longitude Oct 1999 104°0'0"W 102°0'0"W 100°0'0"W 98°0'0"W 96°0'0"W -2.4 -2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4 precipitation Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 15 / 63
- 16. Data: Weather 1999 Precipitation Standardized Anomalies (UEA CRU Ts2p1) September October ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! (( !! (( !! ( ! (( !! (( !! ( ( (((( ( ! ! !!!! ! ( (( ( ! !! ! ( ( (((( ( ! ! !!!! ! ( ! (( ( !! ! ( ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (( !! ( !( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (( !! ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ((( ( !!! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ((( ( !!! ! ( ! ( !( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! ( ( ! !( ! ( ! ( ( ! !( ! ( ! ( (( ( ! !! ! ( ! ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! ( (( ( ! !! ! ( ! ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( (( ( ! !! ! (( !!( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( (( ( ! !! ! (( !! (( !! (( ( !! ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ! (( ( !! ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ! (( !! (( !! (( ( ( (((( (( !! ! ! !!!! !! ( ( ( ! ! ! (( !! (( !! (( ( ( (((( (( !! ! ! !!!! !! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ( ((( ! ! !!! ( ((( ! !!! (( !! (( !! ( ! (( !! ( ( ((( ! ! !!! ( ((( ! !!! (( !! (( !! ( ! ((( !!! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! (( ( (((( ( !! ! !!!! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ((( !!! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! (( ( (((( ( !! ! !!!! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ((( ! !!! ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( (( ( ! ! !! ! ( ! ( ((( ! !!! ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( (( ( ! ! !! ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ( ((( ! ! ! !!! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ( ((( ! ! ! !!! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ((( ( ( (( ( ( !!! ! ! !! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ((( ( ( (( ( ( !!! ! ! !! ! ! ( ! (( ( !! ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ( ! (( ( !! ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! ( !( ! ( ! (((( ( !!!! ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( !( ! ( ! (((( ( !!!! ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ((( !!! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ((( !!! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( (( ( ! ! !! !! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( (( ( ! ! !! !! ! (( !! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ( ! ! ( !( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ( ! ((( ( !!! ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ( ! ((( ( !!! ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! (( !! (( !! ( ! ( ! (( !! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( !( ! ( ( ! ! ( !( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ( ! ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ( ! ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ( ! ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( !( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (( !! ( ! ( ( ! ! (( ( ( !! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (( !! ( ! ( ( ! ! (( ( ( !! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( !( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ! ( !( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( !( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( ((( ! !!! (( !! (( !! ( ((( ! !!! (( !! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( !( ( ( ! ! ! (( ( ( !! ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ( ! ! (( !! ( ! (( !! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! .5 .5 5 2 1 -1 2 4 3 0. -0 -1 <- Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 16 / 63
- 17. Data: Weather September-October Precipitation Standardized Anomalies (UEA CRU Ts2p1) La Nina Year 1999 100°0'0"W 95°0'0"W ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( Ü ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! !! (( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! (! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! (( !! ! ( ( ( (((( ( ! ! !!!! ! ( ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ! ( ( ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ! ( !! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (( !! ! ( (( ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ( (((( ( ! ! !! ! ! ! ( ! ! !!!! ! ! ( ( ( ((( ( !!! ! ( ! ( ( !( (! !! ! ( ( ! ( !( Gulf of Mexico ! ! ( ( ! ( ( !( ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( !! (( ! ( ! !! ( (! ! !! ( ! ( (( ! ( ! ( ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ! ( ( (( ! ( ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! ! !! ! ( (( ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ( ( ! !( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( (( ( ! !! ! ( ! ( ! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! ! ( ! ! ! (( !! ( ( !! !!( (( !! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ! ( (( ( ! !! ! !( ! (( (( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ( !( ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( (( ( !! ! (( !! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ! ! ( ( ! ( (( !! (( !! (( ( ( (((( (( !! ! ! !!!! !! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! !! ! (( (! ( ! !! ( (( !! ! (( ( ! ! !( ( ( ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ( ((( ! ! !!! ( (( ! !! ( (( ! !! (( !! !! ! (( ( ( !! !( ( ! ((( !!! ( ( (( ! ! !! (( ( (((( ( !! ! !!!! ! ( ! !( ! ! !( ! ! (( ! (( (( !! ( ! ! (! (! ! ! !!( !!! (! ( ! ( ( ( (( !!!!!( ( (! ( !( ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ( (( ( ! ! !! ! ( ! ! ( !! ! ! ! ! ( (( ( ( ( ! ( ! (( (( ( (! ( ( !! !( (! ! !( ( (! ! !! ! ! ! (! ( !( ( !( ( ( ! ( ( ! ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! (( !! ( ( ( ((( ! ! ! !!! ( (( ! !! !! (( ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ! !! ( (( ( !! ! !! ! (! (( ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! (( ! ! ( (( ( !! ! ((( ( ( ( ( ( ( !!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ! ! !!! ! !!! (! ( ((( ( ((( ( ! ! !! ( (( ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! ( (((( ( !!!! ! ( ! ( ! !! ! (( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ! (((! ! ! !! ( !!! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ((( !!! ( ! ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! !! ( ( (( ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! !! ! (( !! ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ! ( !! ((! ( ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ( (( ( ! ! !! ! ( (( ! !! !!! ( ! ((( ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ((( ( !!! ! 20°0'0"N ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( !! ! ! (( ( ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ( ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! !! ( ( ((! ( (( ( ( (( ( ! (( !! ( ( ! ! (( !! ( ! ! ! (! (( ( ! !!!! ( (((( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! !( ! ! ! (! ( ( ! ! ( (( !( ! ( ! ! ! !! ( ( ( (( !! ((! ( !!! ! (!( ( ! ! ( ( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! !( ( ! ( ( ! ! !! ((! ! ( ( ! ( ! !! ( (( ( ( ( ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! !! !! (( (( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( !! (( ! ( ! ( (( !! ( ( ! ! ( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ( (( ! ! !! (( !! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! !!! ((( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! Mexico City ! ( !! ((! ( ( ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! !! (( ! ! ( !(! ! (!( ( ! ( ! (! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ! !( ! ( ( !( ( !! (( !( (( !! !! ! ! ! (( ( ( ( ( ( ! ! ( !( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ! !! ( ( (( ( ( ! ! ( ( !( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ( (! ! ! ( !!! ! ( ! ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ( (( !! ( !( ! ( !( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( !! (( ( ! ( ! (( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! !! (( ! (! ( ! ( ! ( (( !! ( ! ( ((( ! !!! (( !! ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( !! ( ! ( ! !!! ( ((( !! (( ! ( ( ! (! ( ( ! ! ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ( !( ( ( ! ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ( ( !! ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ! !( ! !( ( ( ( ! !! ! !! ! (( ( (( ( ! (! ! ( ( ( ! ! (( !! ( ! ( (( !! ! ( Pacific Ocean ! ! !! ( ( (( ! ( ( ! !! (( ( ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ( ! ! ( ! ( 100°0'0"W 95°0'0"W ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( Ü ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! !! (( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! (! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ! (( !! ! ( ( ( (((( ( ! ! !!!! ! ( ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ! ( ( ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ! ( !! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (( !! ! ( (( ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ( (((( ( ! ! !! ! ! ! ( ! ! !!!! ! ! ( ( ( ((( ( !!! ! ( ! ( ( !( (! !! ! ( ( ! ( !( Gulf of Mexico ! ! ( ( ! ( ( !( ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( !! (( ! ( ! !! ( (! ! !! ( ! ( (( ! ( ! ( ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ! ( ( (( ! ( ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ! ! !! ! ( (( ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ( ( ! !( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( (( ( ! !! ! ( ! ( ! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! ! ( ! ! ! (( !! ( ( !! !!( (( !! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( (( ( ! !! ! (( !! !( ! (( (( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ( !( ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( (( ( !! ! (( !! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ! ! ( ( ! ( (( !! (( !! (( ( ( ( ((((( ( !! ! ! ! !!!!! !( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! !! ! (( (! ( ! !! ( (( !! ! (( ( ! ! !( ( ( ( ! ( ! (( !! ( ((( ! !!! ( ((( ! !!! (( !! (( ( (((( ( !! ! !!!! ! ( ! !! ! (( ( ( !! (( ( ! ((( !!! ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ( ! ! !( ! ! !( ! ! !( ( (( !! ( ! ! (! (! ! ! !!( !!! !! ( ! ( ( ( (( !!!!(( (! ! ! (! ( (( ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ( (( ( ! ! !! ! ( ! ! ( !! ! ! ! ! ( (( ( ( ( ! ( ! (! (( (( ( (! ( ( !! (( ( !( !! (! ! !! ! ! ! (! ( !( ( !( ( ( ( ! ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! (( !! ( ( ( ((( ! ! ! !!! ( ( ! ! !! (( ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ((( ( ( (( ( ( !!! ! ! !! ! ! ! !! ( (( ( !! ! !! ! (! (( ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! (( ! ! ( (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ! ! !!! ! !!! (! ( ((( ( ((( ( ! ! !! ( (( ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! ( (((( ( !!!! ! ( ! ( ! !! ! (( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ! (((! ! ! !! ( !!! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ((( !!! ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! !! ( ( (( ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! !! ! (( !! ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ! ( !! ((! ( ( ( (( ! ! !! ( ( (( ( ! ! !! ! ( (( ! !! !!! ( ! ((( ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ((( ( !!! ! 20°0'0"N ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( !! ! ! (( ( ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ( ! (( ( !! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! !! ( ( ((! ( (( ( ( (( ( ! (( !! ( ( ! ! (( !! (( !! ! ! (! (( ( ! !!!! ( (((( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! !( ! ! ! (! ( ( ! (( !( ! ( ! ! ! !! ( ( ( (( ! ( !!! ! ((( ( ! ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ! !! ! ( !! (( ! !! (( !! (( ( !( ! ( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ( ! !! ( ((! ( ! ( (( !! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ( ! !! ! (( ( !! (( ! ( ! ( !! (( ! ( ( ! ( !( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (( !! ( ( ! ! ( ! !!! ((( ! (( ( ( !! ! ! Mexico City ! ( !! ((! ( ( ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! !! (( ! ! (!( !(! ! (!( ( ! ( ! (! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ! ( !! (( !! !( ( !( ! !! (( !! ! ! ! (( ( ( ( ( (( ( ( ! ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ! !! ( ( (( ( ( ! ! ( ( !( ! ( ! ! ( ! ! ( ( ( ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ( !( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ! ( ! (! ! ! ( !!! ! ( ! ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ( (( !! ( !( ! ( !( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( !! (( ( ! ( ! (( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! !! (( ! (! ( ! ( ! ( (( !! ( ! ( ((( ! !!! (( !! ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( (( ! !! ( ( ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( !! ( ! ( ! !!! ( ((( !! (( ! ( ( ! (! ( ( ! ! ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! ( !( ( ( ! ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( (( ( ( !! ! ! (( !! ( ! ( ! ! !( ! !( ( ( ( ! !! ! !! ! (( ( (( ( ! (! ! ( ( ( ! ! (( !! ( ! ( (( !! ! ( Pacific Ocean ! ! !! ( ( (( ! ( ( ! !! (( ( ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ( ! ! ( ! ( .5 .5 5 2 1 -1 2 4 3 0. -0 -1 <- Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 17 / 63
- 18. Data: Weather Average La Nina Precipitation Standardized Anomalies (UEA CRU Ts2p1) September October 100°0'0"W 95°0'0"W 100°0'0"W 95°0'0"W ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( Ü ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( Ü !! (( ! ! ( ( !! (( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (! ( ! (! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !! (( !! (( ! ( ! ( !! (( !! (( ( ( (((( ( ! ! !! ! ! ! ( ! ! !!!! ! ! ( ( ( ( ( (((( ( ! ! !! ! ! ! ( ! ! !!!! ! ! ( ( ( ! ( ( ( !( (! !! ( !( ! ( ( ( !( (! !! Gulf of Mexico ( !( Gulf of Mexico ! ! ( ( ! ( ( !( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ( !( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !! (( ! ( ! !! ( (! ! !! ( ! ( (( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !! (( ! ( ! !! ( (! ! !! ( ! ( (( ! ( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ( ! !! ! ( (( ( ! ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ! !! ! ( (( ( ! ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ! ( ! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ! ( ! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ! ( ! ! ! (( !! ( ( !! !!( ! ( ( !! ( ( !! !! ! ! ! ( ( !( ! (( (( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ( !( ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( !( ! (( (( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ( !( ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ! ! ( ( ! ( !! ! (( (! ( ! !! ( (( !! ! (( ( ! ! !( ( ( !! ! (( (! ( ! !! ( (( !! ! (( ( ! ! !( ( ( !! ! (( ( !( ( !! !( ! ! !( ! ! (( ! (( !! ! (( ( !( ( !! !( ! ! !( ! ! (( ! (( ! ( ! (! ! ! !!( !!! !! ( ! ( ( ( (( !!!!(( ! (! ( (( ! ( ! (! ! ! !!( !!! !! ( ( ( ( (( !!!!(( ! (! ( (( ! ( !! ! ! ! ! ( (( ( ( ( ! ( ! (! (( (( ( (! ( ( !! !( ( !( !! ( (! ! !! ! ! ! (! ( !( ( !( ( ( ! ( !! ! ! ! ! ( (( ( ( ( ! ! ( ! (( (( ( (! ( ( !! !( ( !( !! ( (! ! !! ! ! ! ( ! (! ( !( ( !( ( ( !! (( ( ( ! ! ( !! (( ( ( ! ! ( ( !! ( ! (! ( ( !( ! ( (( ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! (( ! ! ( ( !! ( ! (! ( ( !( ! ( (( ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! (( ! ! ( ! ( ( !! ! ! ! ! !!! ! !!! (! ( ((( ( ((( ! ! ( ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ( !! ! ! ! ! !!! ! !!! (! ( ((( ( ((( ! ! ( ( ! !! ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( !! ! (( ( ! ! !! ! !!! ( ( (( ( (((! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( !! ! (( ( ! ! !! ! !!! ( ( (( ( (((! ! ! ! !! ( ( ( ( (( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! (! ! ( ( ! ! !! ( ( (( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! (! ! ( ( ! ! !! ( ( (( ! ! ( ( ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ! ( !! ((! ( ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ! ( !! ((! ( !!! ((( !!! ((( 20°0'0"N 20°0'0"N ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( !! ! ! (( ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( !! ! ! (( ( ( ! ! !! ! !! ! ! !! ( ( ((! ( (( ( ( (( !!!! ( (((( ! ! !! ! !! ! ! !! ( ( ((! ( (( ( ( (( !!!! ( (((( ! ! (! (( ( ! ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ! (! (( ( ! ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ! ! (! (( !( ! ( ( ! ! ! !! ( ( ( (( !! ((! ( !!! ! (!( ( ! ! ( ( ( ! ( ! ! (! (( !( ! ( ( ! ! ! !! ( ( ( (( !! ((! ( !!! ! (!( ( ! ! ( ( ( !! (( !( ( !! (( !( ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ! ( ( ! !! ( ! (( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ! ( ( ! !! ( ! (( ( ! ( !! ! (( ( !! (( ( !! (( ! ( !! ! (( ( !! (( ( !! (( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !!! ( ((( ! !!! ( ((( ! Mexico City ( Mexico City !( ( !! ((! ( !( ( !! ((! ( ( !! (( ! ! ( !(! ! !! ( ( ! (! !! (( ! ! ( !(! ! !! ( ( ! (! ! !( ! ( ( !( ( !! (( !( (( !! !! ! ! ! (( ( ( ( ! !( ! ( ( !( ( !! (( (( !! !( !! ! ! ! (( ( ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! !! ( ( (( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ! !! ( ( (( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( ( (! (! ! ! ! ( ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( !!! ! (( (! ! ! ! ( ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( !!! ! (( (! ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( !! (( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ( !! (( ! ( !! (( ! ( ! (! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !! (( ! ( ! (! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ( ! ! ! ( ! ! !! ! ( ( (( ( ! ( ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ( ! ( !! ( ! ( ! !!! ( ((( !! (( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! !!! ( ((( !! (( ! ( ( ! (! ( ( ! ! ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ! ( ! (! ( ( ! ! ( ! !! ( (( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! !( ! !( ! !( ( ( ! !( ( ( !! ! !! ! (( ( (( ( ! (! ! ( !! ! !! ! (( ( (( ( ! (! ! ( ( ( ! ( ! ( Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean ! ! !! ( ( (( ! ( ! ! !! ( ( (( ! ( !! (( !! (( ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( .5 .5 5 2 1 -1 2 4 3 0. -0 -1 <- Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 18 / 63
- 19. ENSO historical precipitationpatterns No evidence that the same regions are affected at every ENSO occurrence by extreme rain shocks Figure: Standardized precipitation anomalies of September 1998 with respect to standardized precipitation anomalies of past ENSO occurrences Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 19 / 63
- 20. ENSO historical precipitationpatterns 30˚N 30˚N 25˚N 25˚N Latitude Latitude 20˚N 20˚N 15˚N 15˚N 120˚W 115˚W 110˚W 105˚W 100˚W 95˚W 90˚W 120˚W 115˚W 110˚W 105˚W 100˚W 95˚W 90˚W Longitude Longitude Sep 1974 Oct 1976 30˚N 30˚N 25˚N 25˚N Latitude Latitude 20˚N 20˚N 15˚N 15˚N 120˚W 115˚W 110˚W 105˚W 100˚W 95˚W 90˚W 120˚W 115˚W 110˚W 105˚W 100˚W 95˚W 90˚W Longitude Longitude Oct 1981 Sep 1984 -2.4 -2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4 precipitation Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 20 / 63
- 21. Data: Progresa SocioeconomicSurvey longitudinal dataset: Progresa’s evaluation survey Baseline 1997 Follow-up surveys 1998-2003, and 2007 Socioeconomic indicators, Health, Migration, Transfers... 506 rural villages in central Mexico in 7 states: Guerrero, Hidalgo, Michoacan, Puebla, Queretero, San Luis Potosi, and Veracruz More than 90% of households depend on rainfed agriculture Main outcomes in this study collected in 2003 259 villages, 5,000 households, 6,300 children Anthropometric and cognitive development Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 21 / 63
- 22. Data: village locations 24°0'0"N 22°0'0"N 20°0'0"N 18°0'0"N Aguilar& Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 22 / 63
- 23. Data: Main outcomes Data collected from children aged 2-6 Obtained by certified nurses Measures of interest: 1 Objective anthropometric measures: height and weight 2 Health indicators: hemoglobin level (anemia) and self-reported sick days 3 Language and cognitive development 4 Gross motor skills: McCarthy Scale of Children’s Abilities Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 23 / 63
- 24. Data: Cognitive DevelopmentIndicators TEST Predicts Negative Factors Critical Years Peabody Picture/Vocabulary reading comprehension stress, nutrition 0-2 Receptive Language learning abilities family environment Woodcock-Munoz 1 future vocabulary Working memory second language stress, nutrition 0-2 associative memory arithmetic Woodcock-Munoz 2 severe Short-term memory cognitive disabilities genetic - Woodcock-Munoz 3 problem solving skills Visual spatial thinking abstract thinking stress, nutrition 0-2 secondary edu outcomes Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 24 / 63
- 25. Descriptive Statistics: DependentVariables Variables Num obs Mean Std Dev Min Max Anthropometric Indicators weight (lb) 6233 33.33 6.6580 16.31 122.14 height (in) 6209 37.93 3.5430 16.81 56.54 stunt (binary) 4684 0.38 0.4842 0 1 anemia (binary) 6215 0.27 0.4415 0 1 number of sick days 5598 1.39 2.7874 0 30 Cognitive Dev. Tests (logs) language (Peabody) 4671 2.25 0.8946 0 4.37 W memory (Woodcock 1) 6010 2.17 0.8818 0 4.17 ST memory (Woodcock 2) 5747 2.95 0.6293 0 4.01 visual-spatial (Woodcock 3) 4988 2.30 0.5959 0 3.74 Motor Skills Tests balance (seconds) 5943 8.29 5.0580 0 45 walking backward (binary) 6088 0.89 0.3180 0 1 walking straight (binary) 6041 0.83 0.3735 0 1 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 25 / 63
- 26. Descriptive Statistics: ExplanatoryVariables Variables Num obs Mean Std Dev Min Max Weather variables rain shock 8173 0.61 0.49 0 1 Socio-economic characteristics HH poverty index 1997 5254 703.06 134.67 237 1239 HH size in 1997 5268 6.08 2.56 1 24 age (months) 8173 50.26 16.44 19 82 gender (=1 if male) 8173 0.51 0.50 0 1 language of HH head * spanish & indigenous 5281 0.4 0.49 0 1 * only indigenous 5281 0.04 0.18 0 1 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 26 / 63
- 27. Descriptive Statistics: ExplanatoryVariables “coh” stands for “cohort” and indicates children born in a given year Variables Num obs Mean Std Dev Min Max coh97 8173 0.17 0.3793 0 1 coh98 8173 0.21 0.4099 0 1 coh99 8173 0.22 0.4128 0 1 coh00 8173 0.21 0.4085 0 1 coh01 8173 0.18 0.3863 0 1 Interactions with rainfall shocks (binary) coh97*rain shock 8173 0.11 0.3110 0 1 coh98*rain shock 8173 0.13 0.3351 0 1 coh99*rain shock 8173 0.13 0.3388 0 1 coh00*rain shock 8173 0.13 0.3341 0 1 coh01*rain shock 8173 0.11 0.3186 0 1 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 27 / 63
- 28. Outline 1 Background 2 Data 3 Empirical specification 4 Results 5 Mechanisms 6 The role of Progresa 7 Conclusions Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 28 / 63
- 29. Empirical Specification Assumption: Weather shocks exogeneity (TESTED) The following specification is used to identify effects of weather shocks in early childhood: 2001 Yij = γk coh kij + ηk rain shockj ∗ coh kij + βXij + ij k=1997 where Yij is the outcome for individual i in pixel j coh kij is an indicator for individual i being born on year k rain shockj is an indicator for weather shocks in j pixel Xij are controls for individual i in pixel j SEs are clustered by pixel Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 29 / 63
- 30. Weather Shock ExogeneityTest binary Mean Mean Difference t − stat variable (rain shock = 0) (rain shock = 1) Village characteristics male wages 318.3 303.2 15.17 1.248 female wages 41.81 45.44 -3.629 -0.980 Household characteristics and assets size 6.748 6.827 -0.0792 -0.683 poverty index 1997 712.7 705.5 7.189 0.670 owns land (ha) 1.749 1.727 0.0215 0.128 owns the house 0.940 0.936 0.00387 0.338 electricity 0.776 0.761 0.0154 0.373 water 0.0395 0.0448 -0.00533 -0.567 tv 0.617 0.471 0.147*** 4.360 vehicle 0.136 0.0599 0.0764*** 4.615 donkeys 0.421 0.384 0.0371 0.691 bullocks 0.130 0.129 0.000910 0.0158 sheep 1.695 1.606 0.0888 0.234 chickens 6.719 7.933 -1.213** -2.666 pigs 1.151 1.322 -0.171 -1.160 * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 30 / 63
- 31. Weather Shock ExogeneityTest Mean Mean Difference t − stat rain shock = 0 rain shock = 1 Head of household characteristics gender (=1 if male) 0.904 0.889 0.0147 1.199 age (years) 43.11 41.79 1.319 1.965 education (years) 3.759 3.597 0.162 1.028 agricultural worker 0.701 0.738 -0.0373 -1.386 language spoken: Indigenous 0.00681 0.0357 -0.0289*** -3.469 Spanish and Indigen. 0.177 0.397 -0.220*** -4.704 Household migratory characteristics temporary migrants 0.0463 0.0392 0.00715 1.407 permanent migrants to: US 0.0392 0.0119 0.0274* 2.548 Mexico 0.0236 0.0221 0.00151 0.186 * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 31 / 63
- 32. Empirical Specification -Robustness Checks Exogeneity Test for weather shocks: regression model that includes variables with different means Spatial Correlation addressed using Conley Standard Errors Test possible role of shocks occurred after 1999 Serial Correlation tests and corrections Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 32 / 63
- 33. Outline 1 Background 2 Data 3 Empirical specification 4 Results 5 Mechanisms 6 The role of Progresa 7 Conclusions Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 33 / 63
- 34. Results: Anthropometric indicators weight (lb) height (in) stunting anemia days sick (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) coh97 x rain shock -0.613 -0.466** . -0.0323 0.346 [0.6137] [0.2190] . [0.0624] [0.2652] coh98 x rain shock -0.837* -0.709*** 0.127* -0.0132 0.00235 [0.4806] [0.2176] [0.0722] [0.0336] [0.1813] coh99 x rain shock -0.733 -0.555** 0.140** 0.00325 -0.232 [0.4399] [0.2483] [0.0672] [0.0368] [0.1860] coh00 x rain shock -0.145 -0.426* 0.140** 0.00877 -0.00481 [0.3484] [0.2485] [0.0630] [0.0338] [0.2043] coh01 x rain shock -0.468 -0.189 0.115* 0.00671 0.0899 [0.3742] [0.2052] [0.0653] [0.0616] [0.2517] Observations 3729 3705 2777 3765 3377 R2 0.58 0.76 0.09 0.03 0.02 Mean 33.42 38.08 0.384 0.273 1.282 Controlling for household and individual characteristics Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 34 / 63
- 35. Results: Anthropometric indicators- Conley SEs weight (lb) height (in) stunting anemia days sick (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) coh97 x rain shock -0.613 -0.466** . -0.0323 0.346 (0.6565) (0.2629) (0.6) (0.2421) coh98 x rain shock -0.837* -0.709*** 0.127* -0.0132 0.00235 (0.5352) (0.2475) (0.0712) (0.0394) (0.1781) coh99 x rain shock -0.733 -0.555** 0.140** 0.00325 -0.232 (0.4924) (0.2826) (0.0720) (0.0364) (0.2170) coh00 x rain shock -0.145 -0.426* 0.140** 0.00877 -0.00481 (0.3378) (0.2514) (0.0658) (0.0368) (0.2007) coh01 x rain shock -0.468 -0.189 0.115* 0.00671 0.0899 (0.3991) (0.1867) (0.073) (0.0716) (0.2211) Observations 3729 3705 2777 3765 3377 R2 0.58 0.76 0.09 0.03 0.02 Mean 33.42 38.08 0.384 0.273 1.282 Controlling for household and individual characteristics * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 35 / 63
- 36. Results: Cognitive developmentindicators (log) Peabody Test Woodcock-Mu˜oz Test n working short term visual-spatial language memory memory thinking (1) (2) (3) (4) coh97 x rain shock -0.216** -0.194* -0.000168 -0.133*** [0.0967] [0.1042] [0.0257] [0.0424] coh98 x rain shock -0.209*** -0.199*** 0.0139 -0.121*** [0.0601] [0.0644] [0.0322] [0.0335] coh99 x rain shock -0.148** -0.162*** -0.0532 -0.111** [0.0682] [0.0598] [0.0370] [0.0493] coh00 x rain shock -0.0258 -0.147** 0.0173 -0.143** [0.0672] [0.0568] [0.0374] [0.0541] coh01 x rain shock -0.225 -0.0300 -0.0755 0.0364 [0.6933] [0.0549] [0.0552] [0.0899] Observations 2835 3522 3385 2967 R2 0.33 0.32 0.48 0.38 Controlling for household and individual characteristics SE clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 36 / 63
- 37. Results: Cognitive devindicators (log) - Conley SEs Peabody Test Woodcock-Mu˜oz Test n working short term visual-spatial language memory memory thinking (1) (2) (3) (4) coh97 x rain shock -0.216** -0.194* -0.000168 -0.133*** (0.1055) (0.1199) (0.0288) (0.0496) coh98 x rain shock -0.209*** -0.199*** 0.0139 -0.121*** (0.0679) (0.0817) (0.0363) (0.0398) coh99 x rain shock -0.148** -0.162*** -0.0532 -0.111** (0.0651) (0.0649) (0.0357) (0.058) coh00 x rain shock -0.0258 -0.147** 0.0173 -0.143** (0.0576) (0.0565) (0.0356) (0.0486) coh01 x rain shock -0.225 -0.0300 -0.0755 0.0364 ( 0.6910) (0.66) (0.0493) (0.1003) Observations 2835 3522 3385 2967 R2 0.33 0.32 0.48 0.38 Controlling for household and individual characteristics * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 37 / 63
- 38. Results: Motor skillsindicators balance ability to ability to (seconds) walk backward walk straight (1) (2) (3) coh97 x rain shock -0.718** 0.0228 0.0140 [0.3420] [0.0162] [0.0117] coh98 x rain shock -0.164 0.0136 0.0220* [0.2609] [0.0130] [0.0118] coh99 x rain shock -0.357 0.0174 -0.0371** [0.3408] [0.0155] [0.0156] coh00 x rain shock -0.210 -0.0216 -0.00701 [0.3739] [0.0283] [0.0374] coh01 x rain shock 0.0831 -0.0308 -0.0514 [0.4352] [0.0563] [0.0509] Observations 3563 3693 3663 R2 0.33 0.16 0.24 Mean 8.286 0.891 0.843 Controlling for household and individual characteristics SE clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 38 / 63
- 39. Results: Motor skillsindicators - Conley SEs balance ability to ability to (seconds) walk backward walk straight (1) (2) (3) coh97 x rain shock -0.718** 0.0228 0.0140 (0.3686) (0.0186) (0.0109) coh98 x rain shock -0.164 0.0136 0.0220* (0.2628) (0.0119) (0.0104) coh99 x rain shock -0.357 0.0174 -0.0371** (0.3452) (0.0152) (0.0134) coh00 x rain shock -0.210 -0.0216 -0.00701 (0.2811) (0.0246) (0.0351) coh01 x rain shock 0.0831 -0.0308 -0.0514 (0.3796) (0502) (0.0488) Observations 3563 3693 3663 R2 0.33 0.16 0.24 Mean 8.286 0.891 0.843 Controlling for household and individual characteristics * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 39 / 63
- 40. Summary of findings Anthropometric indicators lower weight for children born in 1998 lower height for children born between 1997 and 2000. higher probability of stunting Cognitive development indicators: lower test scores in language working memory visual-spatial thinking Motor skills indicators: No evidence of effects from weather shocks Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 40 / 63
- 41. Outline 1 Background 2 Data 3 Empirical specification 4 Results 5 Mechanisms 6 The role of Progresa 7 Conclusions Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 41 / 63
- 42. Mechanisms Explored mechanisms throughwhich rainfall shocks may affect child physical and cognitive development: income constraints reception of formal and informal transfers: government aid, food and non-food transfers from family and neighbors contractions in food consumption: value (pesos) and amount (kg) changes in diet composition: calories, proteins, etc. child health and medicine expenditures Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 42 / 63
- 43. Mechanisms: Income Effect of rainfall shocks on income at different time periods (years) Dependent Variables Coeff Std Dev Total household income (log) incomet -0.395*** (0.052) incomet+1 -0.291*** (0.052) incomet+2 -0.263*** (0.042) HH income from agriculture (log) agricultural incomet -0.276*** (0.047) agricultural incomet+1 -0.268*** (0.056) agricultural incomet+2 -0.181*** (0.044) Each line shows the result of separate regressions Controlling for household head and household characteristics Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 43 / 63
- 44. Mechanisms: Transfers Effect of rainfall shocks on formal and informal transfers at the time of the shock Variables Binary Coeff Std Dev =1 if household received government aid food aidt 0.047** (0.021) other aidt 0.006 (0.034) =1 if household received informal transfers from familyt -0.042 (0.043) from neighbort -0.028*** (0.009) Each line shows the result of separate regressions Controlling for household head and household characteristics Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 44 / 63
- 45. Mechanisms: Food consumption Effect of rainfall shocks on food consumption (log) at different time periods (years) Food consumption is normalized using Adults Equivalents (AE) Variables Mean Std Dev food consumptiont (pesos) -0.100*** (0.035) food consumptiont+1 (pesos) -0.115*** (0.034) food consumptiont+2 (pesos) -0.149*** (0.055) food consumptiont (kg) -0.027 (0.036) food consumptiont+1 (kg) 0.003 (0.030) food consumptiont+2 (kg) 0.042 (0.057) Each line shows the result of separate regressions Controlling for household head and household characteristics Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 45 / 63
- 46. Mechanisms: Diet composition Effect of rainfall shocks on diet composition (log) at different time periods (years) Food consumption is normalized using Adults Equivalents (AE) Variables Coeff Std Dev tortilla consumptiont (pesos) 0.132** (0.054) tortilla consumptiont+1 (pesos) -0.085 (0.064) tortilla consumptiont+2 (pesos) -0.218*** (0.069) animal consumptiont (pesos) -0.052 (0.085) animal consumptiont+1 (pesos) -0.145* (0.075) animal consumptiont+2 (pesos) -0.171** (0.076) fruit and vegetable consumptiont (pesos) -0.200*** (0.057) fruit and vegetable consumptiont+1 (pesos) -0.078 (0.049) fruit and vegetable consumptiont+2 (pesos) -0.143** (0.056) Each line shows the result of separate regressions Controlling for household head and household characteristics Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 46 / 63
- 47. Mechanisms: Health andmedicine expenditures Effect of rainfall shocks on child health and medicine expenditures (log) at different time periods (years) Variables Coeff Std Dev children reported sick children sickt (% in the HH) 0.011 (0.022) children sickt+1 (% in the HH) 0.025 (0.027) children sickt+2 (% in the HH) 0.016 (0.031) medicine expenditures (log) medicine expenditurest -0.361*** (0.121) medicine expenditurest+1 -0.303** (0.113) medicine expenditurest+2 0.043 (0.128) Each line shows the result of separate regressions Controlling for household head and household characteristics Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 47 / 63
- 48. Summary of findings(mechanisms) income contractions persistent over the three periods t, t + 1, t + 2 decrease of total income from 40% (t) to 26% (t + 2) decrease of agricultural income from 27% (t) to 18% (t + 2) contractions in value of food consumption over three periods 10% (t), 11% (t + 1), and 15% (t + 2) changes in diet composition, measured as log consumption (pesos): consumption of tortillas increases immediately after the shock (13%) decreases in period t + 2 (22%) decrease in consumption of animal proteins (14% to 17%) decrease in consumption of fruit and vegetables (14% to 20%) Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 48 / 63
- 49. Summary of findings(mechanisms) child health reported by mothers, does not seem to be significantly affected medicine expenditures significantly decrease 36% in period (t) and 30% in (t + 1) probability of receiving formal and/or informal transfers, immediately after the shock: increases of government food aid (5 percentage points) decreases of transfers received from neighbors (3 perc. points) Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 49 / 63
- 50. Outline 1 Background 2 Data 3 Empirical specification 4 Results 5 Mechanisms 6 The role of Progresa 7 Conclusions Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 50 / 63
- 51. The Role ofProgresa Progresa: poverty alleviation program in rural Mexico conditional cash transfer (CCT), conditional on children’s school attendance and periodic family health check-ups Pilot in 1997-2000 - clustered randomized experiment with treatment at the village level beneficiaries selected based on a poverty index at the household level beneficiary households receive nutritional supplements and cash transfers (based on number, age and gender of school age children) Monthly transfers represent about 20% of the monthly consumption of poor households We investigate the potential mitigating effects of Progresa Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 51 / 63
- 52. Role of Progresa:Anthropometric indicators weight (lb) height (in) stunting anemia days sick (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Rain shock -0.516 -0.467** 0.126*** 0.0297 0.0847 [0.4104] [0.2298] [0.0357] [0.0254] [0.1768] Treatment -0.181 -0.0598 0.0118 0.0510* -0.0997 [0.4066] [0.2182] [0.0303] [0.0307] [0.1689] Treatment x Rain shock -0.702 -0.255 0.00271 -0.0407 0.0485 [0.5705] [0.3153] [0.0505] [0.0374] [0.2321] Observations 259 259 259 258 259 R2 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.01 0.01 Mean 33.92 38.29 0.301 0.261 1.380 Robust Standard errors [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 52 / 63
- 53. Role of Progresa:Cognitive development indicators Peabody Test Wodcoock-Mu˜oz Test n language working short term visual-spatial skills memory memory thinking (1) (2) (3) (4) Rain shock -0.159** -0.137** -0.100** -0.139*** [0.0762] [0.0684] [0.0406] [0.0439] Treatment 0.0330 -0.00983 -0.0419 -0.0459 [0.0724] [0.0650] [0.0402] [0.0452] Treatment x Rain shock -0.0197 -0.0463 0.0592 0.0466 [0.0976] [0.0864] [0.0556] [0.0606] Observations 253 259 259 259 R2 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.06 Controlling for household and individual characteristics Standard errors clustered by gridcell [in brackets] * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 53 / 63
- 54. The Role ofProgresa: discussion Fernald and Gertler (2005) analyze the effects of Progresa on some of these outcomes compare the RCT localities with respect to a synthetic control find significant effects on anthropometric and motor skills, but not on cognitive abilities no difference between original treatment localities (begin to receive CCT in 1998) and control localities (added to the program in 2000) Argument: those living in control localities “catch-up” given that they begin to receive the benefits on 2000 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 54 / 63
- 55. The Role ofProgresa: RD analysis Use RD to identify if there are medium term benefits of Progresa and assess its possible mitigating effects RD with respect to the poverty index used to select eligible households index based on household’s characteristics and asset ownership Progresa Beneficiaries Progresa Recipients 2001 Progresa Recipients 2002 1 1 .8 .8 (mean) recipient3 (mean) recipient4 .6 .6 .4 .4 .2 .2 0 0 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 x_pmt x_pmt Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 55 / 63
- 56. The Role ofProgresa: RD analysis Effects on anthropometric variables Weight (lb) espacio espacio espacio espacioHeight (in) Weight (lb) Height (in) 44 50 42 40 40 38 30 36 20 34 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 x_pmt x_pmt Rain_shock=0 Rain_shock=1 Rain_shock=0 Rain_shock=1 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 56 / 63
- 57. The Role ofProgresa: RD analysis Effects on cognitive variables Language espacio espacio espacio espacioWorking memory Peabody Language Test Long-term Memory (Woodcok-Johnson Test 1) 4 4 3.5 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 x_pmt x_pmt Rain_shock=0 Rain_shock=1 Rain_shock=0 Rain_shock=1 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 57 / 63
- 58. Outline 1 Background 2 Data 3 Empirical specification 4 Results 5 Mechanisms 6 The role of Progresa 7 Conclusions Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 58 / 63
- 59. Conclusions We provide evidence that children affected by ENSO-related weather shocks during their early stages of development are affected on the medium-term on Cognitive abilities (language, working memory, and visual spatial integration) Anthropometric indicators (weight and height) The analysis shows that some of the mechanisms that could drive these results are Persistent negative effects on household income Persistent negative effects on food consumption Changes in diet composition The conditional cash transfer program shows no mitigating effects for households affected by the shocks that received the treatment Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 59 / 63
- 60. Conclusions: Perspectives andPolicy Implications This study represents test-bed to understand climate change impacts (i.e. extreme events) direct and indirect role of weather factors on cognitive/physical development not well understood (i.e. temperature, stress) Adaptation studies should include human cognitive/physical development particularly relevant in rural areas of developing countries Socioeconomic development poverty reduction interventions should include vulnerability reduction component future of weather index insurance in rainfed-agriculture communities Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 60 / 63
- 61. Standard Errors: Anthropometricindicators - BACK weight (lb) height (in) stunting anemia days sick (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) coh97 x rain shock 0.6137 0.2190 . 0.0624 0.2652 0.6565 0.2629 0.6 0.2421 (0.6192) 0.2881 0.0571 0.2301 coh98 x rain shock 0.4806 0.2176 0.0722 0.0336 0.1813 0.5352 0.2475 0.0712 0.0394 0.1781 0.6177 0.2974 0.0709 0.0393 0.1607 coh99 x rain shock 0.4399 0.2483 0.0672 0.0368 0.1860 0.4924 0.2826 0.0720 0.0364 0.2170 0.5619 0.3272 0.0806 0.0343 0.1896 coh00 x rain shock 0.3484 0.2485 0.0630 0.0338 0.2043 0.3378 0.2514 0.0658 0.0368 0.2007 0.3627 0.2852 0.0725 0.036 0.1745 coh01 x rain shock 0.3742 0.2052 0.0653 0.0616 0.2517 0.3991 0.1867 0.073 0.0716 0.2211 0.3959 0.1946 0.0844 0.0751 0.1998 Robust standard errors; Conley SEs, cutoff=1decimal deg; Conley SEs, cutoff=2 decimal deg. Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 61 / 63
- 62. Standard Errors: Cognitivedev indicators (log) - BACK Peabody Test Woodcock-Mu˜oz Test n long term short term visual-spatial language memory memory thinking (1) (2) (3) (4) coh97 x rain shock 0.0967 0.1042 0.0257 0.0424 0.1055 0.1199 0.0288 0.0496 0.12 0.1187 0.0287 0.0516 coh98 x rain shock 0.0601 0.0644 0.0322 0.0335 0.0679 0.0817 0.0363 0.0398 0.0721 0.0907 0.0382 0.403 coh99 x rain shock 0.0682 0.0598 0.0370 0.0493 0.0651 0.0649 0.0357 0.058 0.0612 0.0735 0.0345 0.0592 coh00 x rain shock 0.0672 0.0568 0.0374 0.0541 0.0576 0.0565 0.0356 0.0486 0.046 0.0502 0.0381 0.0423 coh01 x rain shock 0.6933 0.0549 0.0552 0.0899 0.6910 0.66 0.0493 0.1003 0.6822 0.0651 0.0388 0.0944 Robust standard errors; Conley SEs, cutoff=1decimal deg; Conley SEs, cutoff=2 decimal deg. Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 62 / 63
- 63. Standard Errors: Motorskills indicators- BACK balance ability to ability to (seconds) walk backward walk straight (1) (2) (3) coh97 x rain shock 0.3420 0.0162 0.0117 0.3686 0.0186 0.0109 0.3064 0.0208 0.0097 coh98 x rain shock 0.2609 0.0130 0.0118 0.2628 0.0119 0.0104 0.2292 0.0118 0.0081 coh99 x rain shock 0.3408 0.0155 0.0156 0.3452 0.0152 0.0134 0.3557 0.0156 0.0135 coh00 x rain shock 0.3739 0.0283 0.0374 0.2811 0.0246 0.0351 0.2735 0.0236 0.0353 coh01 x rain shock 0.4352 0.0563 0.0509 0.3796 0502 0.0488 0.3306 0.0432 0.0536 Robust standard errors; Conley SEs, cutoff=1decimal deg; Conley SEs, cutoff=2 decimal deg. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 63 / 63