This document summarizes research on the relationship between medieval trade and religious tolerance in South Asia. The key findings are:
1) Medieval ports in South Asia that benefited from overseas trade centuries ago experienced significantly less Hindu-Muslim violence over the last 200 years compared to other towns, despite being more ethnically diverse.
2) This effect is attributed to the exogenous and non-replicable complementarities between Hindu and Muslim communities that arose from medieval trade, not other factors like wealth, geography, or institutions alone.
3) The research provides evidence that exogenous changes generating robust inter-ethnic complementarities can have a lasting positive impact on peaceful coexistence in ethnically diverse societies.
This document summarizes a study evaluating Mexico's Hábitat program, which aims to improve infrastructure and quality of life in marginalized urban areas. The study uses a randomized saturation design where municipalities were randomly assigned a treatment fraction, and polygons within municipalities were then randomly assigned as treatment or control. Over 9,700 households were surveyed at baseline in 2009 and follow-up in 2012 to evaluate impacts on infrastructure access, health, social capital, and other outcomes. The randomized design at multiple levels aims to quantify program impacts while accounting for potential spillovers between treatment and control areas.
This document discusses a new approach to measuring the impact of foreign labor on native employment. It presents two natural experiments using data on H-2A visa workers and unemployment insurance records from North Carolina farms. The results section analyzes the effect of the recession on job referrals and native labor supply, finding that higher unemployment led to more job referrals but lower native employment, suggesting native workers withdrew from the labor market during economic downturns.
This document summarizes a study on daily income targets and labor supply among 257 Kenyan bicycle taxi drivers. The study collected detailed daily logs from participants over several months, including whether they had a cash need that day and if so, the amount. The results suggest that drivers (1) have cash needs that vary substantially and put them off until the last day, (2) work more on high-need days, and (3) are more likely to quit after reaching their target for the day. Providing unexpected cash payments did not affect labor supply. The study aims to better understand how individuals without formal work arrangements motivate themselves to meet daily income targets.
1) The document describes a field experiment that randomized offers of index insurance to agricultural households in India to study the interaction between formal insurance and informal risk-sharing networks.
2) It finds that the presence of strong informal risk-sharing networks through castes/jatis reduces demand for formal insurance, and that basis risk, where payouts do not perfectly correlate with losses, also reduces demand.
3) However, informal and formal insurance can be complements when basis risk is high, as both provide partial coverage against different risks. The study uses detailed survey and rainfall data on castes/jatis to characterize their risk-sharing practices.
This document discusses a study on agricultural production in polygynous households in Burkina Faso. The study finds that while altruism can encourage cooperation, it can also inhibit efficiency by reducing the credibility of punishments. Using data on plot yields, the study finds greater cooperation between co-wives than between wives and husbands in polygynous households, suggesting altruism makes punishment threats less credible. Various robustness checks considering alternative explanations and unobserved factors support the role of altruism in impacting cooperation and efficiency.
This paper examines middleman margins and the impact of providing price information to potato farmers in West Bengal, India. It finds that middlemen earn very large margins of 50-90% of farmgate prices on average. When farmers were provided daily wholesale market price information, it had no average effect on prices received but increased volatility, consistent with a bargaining model. This suggests neither risk-sharing nor asymmetric information play a major role in middlemen margins. The key cause of high margins appears to be the market power of middlemen in the hierarchical potato marketing system.
The document discusses a study on the impact of female property rights on suicide rates in India. It notes that women's ability to inherit property is restricted in many societies, including in India. The study uses variation in property rights for women generated by state amendments to inheritance laws and land reforms. It develops a model of intra-household bargaining incorporating conflict and finds that better property rights for women are associated with a decrease in the gender difference in suicide rates but an increase in overall male and female suicide rates, possibly due to increased intra-household conflict from challenging traditional gender roles.
This document summarizes a study evaluating Mexico's Hábitat program, which aims to improve infrastructure and quality of life in marginalized urban areas. The study uses a randomized saturation design where municipalities were randomly assigned a treatment fraction, and polygons within municipalities were then randomly assigned as treatment or control. Over 9,700 households were surveyed at baseline in 2009 and follow-up in 2012 to evaluate impacts on infrastructure access, health, social capital, and other outcomes. The randomized design at multiple levels aims to quantify program impacts while accounting for potential spillovers between treatment and control areas.
This document discusses a new approach to measuring the impact of foreign labor on native employment. It presents two natural experiments using data on H-2A visa workers and unemployment insurance records from North Carolina farms. The results section analyzes the effect of the recession on job referrals and native labor supply, finding that higher unemployment led to more job referrals but lower native employment, suggesting native workers withdrew from the labor market during economic downturns.
This document summarizes a study on daily income targets and labor supply among 257 Kenyan bicycle taxi drivers. The study collected detailed daily logs from participants over several months, including whether they had a cash need that day and if so, the amount. The results suggest that drivers (1) have cash needs that vary substantially and put them off until the last day, (2) work more on high-need days, and (3) are more likely to quit after reaching their target for the day. Providing unexpected cash payments did not affect labor supply. The study aims to better understand how individuals without formal work arrangements motivate themselves to meet daily income targets.
1) The document describes a field experiment that randomized offers of index insurance to agricultural households in India to study the interaction between formal insurance and informal risk-sharing networks.
2) It finds that the presence of strong informal risk-sharing networks through castes/jatis reduces demand for formal insurance, and that basis risk, where payouts do not perfectly correlate with losses, also reduces demand.
3) However, informal and formal insurance can be complements when basis risk is high, as both provide partial coverage against different risks. The study uses detailed survey and rainfall data on castes/jatis to characterize their risk-sharing practices.
This document discusses a study on agricultural production in polygynous households in Burkina Faso. The study finds that while altruism can encourage cooperation, it can also inhibit efficiency by reducing the credibility of punishments. Using data on plot yields, the study finds greater cooperation between co-wives than between wives and husbands in polygynous households, suggesting altruism makes punishment threats less credible. Various robustness checks considering alternative explanations and unobserved factors support the role of altruism in impacting cooperation and efficiency.
This paper examines middleman margins and the impact of providing price information to potato farmers in West Bengal, India. It finds that middlemen earn very large margins of 50-90% of farmgate prices on average. When farmers were provided daily wholesale market price information, it had no average effect on prices received but increased volatility, consistent with a bargaining model. This suggests neither risk-sharing nor asymmetric information play a major role in middlemen margins. The key cause of high margins appears to be the market power of middlemen in the hierarchical potato marketing system.
The document discusses a study on the impact of female property rights on suicide rates in India. It notes that women's ability to inherit property is restricted in many societies, including in India. The study uses variation in property rights for women generated by state amendments to inheritance laws and land reforms. It develops a model of intra-household bargaining incorporating conflict and finds that better property rights for women are associated with a decrease in the gender difference in suicide rates but an increase in overall male and female suicide rates, possibly due to increased intra-household conflict from challenging traditional gender roles.
Cash and vouchers led to starkly different purchasing patterns. Voucher recipients purchased fewer types of items compared to cash recipients, indicating the voucher was extra-marginal for some food items. However, there were few differences in other outcomes like food security and asset ownership between the groups. Cash recipients were able to save more of the transfer value since vouchers could only be spent on certain goods. The voucher program also had higher costs for the implementing agency than cash transfers.
This study examines the stability of social, risk, and time preferences over multiple years using data from 2002, 2007, 2009, and 2010. The main findings are:
1. Risk preferences are not stable over time, while time preferences are highly stable.
2. Experimental measures of social preferences like altruism and trust show little stability over time.
3. There is some evidence that previous experimental outcomes can influence preferences in later experiments, such as being unlucky increasing later risk aversion or being paired with a generous partner increasing later generosity.
4. However, the impacts across experiments are small and the results should be interpreted cautiously due to sample attrition and differences in experimental designs over the years.
The study evaluated the impact of an alternative cash transfer program for education in Morocco that provided small, unlabeled cash transfers to fathers in poor communities. Over two years:
1. The unconditional cash transfers reduced the school dropout rate by 67-75% among children enrolled at baseline and increased school reentry by 85% among previous dropouts.
2. Adding attendance conditions did not provide additional educational gains compared to the unconditional transfers.
3. There was also little difference in impacts between transfers made to mothers versus fathers.
4. The program appeared to work in part by changing parents' perceptions of the returns to education and quality of local schools, without directly imposing conditions.
This document describes a study examining how increased access to mobile phones impacted small boat manufacturers in Kerala, India. The researchers conducted a census of 143 boat builders from 1997-2004, collecting data on output, prices, and boat quality. Prior to phones, builders only served local demand. Phones increased information sharing, allowing fishermen to learn about distant builders. This likely expanded each builder's effective market size. The study tests if this led more productive builders to grow and less productive ones to exit, increasing average firm size and productivity over time. The natural experiment from phone diffusion provides an opportunity to study these impacts.
The document discusses increasing girls' enrollment in secondary schools in India. It notes that the gender gap in education is more pronounced in Bihar, with girls' enrollment dropping off sharply at age 14 when transitioning to secondary schools. Distance to secondary schools is a major barrier, with enrollment declining as distance increases. The authors propose exploring cost-effective, scalable alternatives to expanding access beyond the default approach of school construction, such as providing bicycles.
This document analyzes the long-term effects of the 1832 Cherokee Land Lottery on wealth using census and other data. It finds that those who received land titles in the lottery on average had higher wealth levels in 1850 and 1860 compared to those who did not receive titles, even after controlling for other factors. The effects were larger for those matched to land closest to gold deposits discovered in the 1830s.
Hiring knowledge agents to spread information about a public health insurance scheme in rural India had a positive impact on villagers' knowledge about the scheme. The effect was entirely driven by agents on incentive pay contracts, who received bonuses based on villagers' knowledge levels. Improved knowledge, in turn, increased enrollment in the scheme. Social distance between agent and villager had a negative impact on knowledge transmission, but incentive pay canceled out this effect. The study used a randomized controlled trial to test these relationships, hiring different types of agents (fixed pay vs incentive pay) across villages.
1. The document analyzes maternal beliefs about the technology of skill formation in children.
2. Objective estimates of the technology are obtained using data on skills, investments, and health conditions of children over time. These estimates find that investments have a statistically significant effect on skills.
3. Maternal beliefs about the technology are heterogeneous and may differ systematically from objective estimates if mothers are misinformed. Comparing beliefs to estimates could reveal if certain groups are misinformed.
This study evaluates a performance incentive program in Mexican high schools aimed at improving mathematics achievement. It provided monetary incentives to students (T1), teachers (T2), or both (T3) based on scores on curriculum-aligned mathematics tests. The program was implemented over three school years in 88 schools randomly assigned to treatment or control groups. Initial results found positive effects on test scores, with the largest effects in the treatment combining incentives for both students and teachers.
The document analyzes how pro-poor growth, or reducing poverty, will impact global energy demand. It develops an economic model showing that as household income grows over time in a nonlinear way, ownership of durable goods like refrigerators also increases nonlinearly. The model predicts that the pace of income growth matters, with more uneven income growth leading to higher durable ownership. Analysis of a Mexican anti-poverty program confirms the model's predictions, showing that households receiving more uneven transfers over time were more likely to acquire refrigerators. The findings suggest that projections of energy demand need to account for how rapidly populations rise out of poverty to avoid underestimating future demand.
The document summarizes a study that evaluated the impact of a business literacy intervention in rural Mexico. The intervention provided free 6-week business skills courses taught by professors and students to about 25 women entrepreneurs per class. The courses covered topics like accounting, pricing, taxes, and marketing. The study found that the training led to large, positive and significant effects on profits, revenues, and number of clients both in the short- and medium-run. There was also evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects. The results suggest the training improved accounting practices, lowered costs, increased mark-ups, and in some cases lowered prices.
The document describes an experiment conducted in Malawi to test if job referral networks disadvantage women. The experiment found that when people could refer either men or women, only 30% of referrals were women, compared to 38% of initial applicants. However, when people could only refer one gender, men and women referred at similar rates regardless of the gender they were restricted to. This suggests social incentives rather than differences in productivity lead referral networks to disadvantage women.
The document summarizes research on the quality of life insurance advice provided by agents in India. It finds that agents overwhelmingly recommend whole life policies over term life policies, even when term policies better meet customers' needs for risk coverage at low cost. Agents are motivated to recommend whole life due to higher commissions. The research tests whether the quality of advice improves when disclosure requirements make agency problems more transparent or when competition is increased. It uses an audit study approach with standardized customer profiles to evaluate agent recommendations across conditions.
The paper analyzes the price effects of cash versus in-kind transfers using data from a randomized experiment in Mexico. It finds that:
1) Prices for goods decline more for in-kind transfers than for cash transfers, with the difference in price effects being statistically significant.
2) The price effects are larger in more remote villages, consistent with those villages having more closed economies and less competition.
3) The results provide empirical evidence that in-kind transfers can have larger impacts on prices than cash transfers due to introducing supply as well as demand for goods in local markets.
This document provides an overview of a study that estimates a dynamic agricultural production model using observed subjective distributions from farmers in Tanzania. The key points are:
1) The study measures farmers' subjective probability distributions over expected crop prices and yields at different points throughout the growing season. This allows the authors to relax rational expectations assumptions and incorporate observed expectations.
2) The model assumes crops grow according to a nested CES production function with labor, pesticides, and lagged output as inputs. Farmers are assumed to maximize expected profits subject to shocks modeled by subjective distributions.
3) Identification of the shock distributions gt(θt) is needed to estimate the model parameters but the study only observes subjective output
This document summarizes a study on the long-term effects of teacher performance pay in India. The study conducted a 5-year randomized controlled trial across hundreds of schools in Andhra Pradesh. Schools were randomly assigned to receive either individual or group-based teacher incentives linked to student test scores, or to serve as controls. The study finds that students whose teachers received individual incentives scored significantly higher than controls on math and language tests after 5 years of exposure. They also scored higher on non-incentivized subjects. The study provides some of the longest-running and most robust evidence on performance pay for teachers.
The document discusses subsidies for malaria treatment. It notes that malaria kills over 1 million people per year. A new effective drug called ACT is available but unaffordable for most. A program called AMFm aims to reduce ACT prices via subsidies to improve access and fight drug resistance, but there is a risk of overtreatment which could waste money and contribute to drug resistance. The paper aims to study how to balance improved access and targeting of subsidies for ACT malaria treatment.
This document summarizes a study that evaluated the impact of a mobile phone-based agricultural advice and information service called Avaaj Otalo (AO) on cotton farmers in Gujarat, India. The study used a randomized controlled trial with 1,200 farmers randomized to either receive AO, AO plus physical extension sessions, or serve as pure controls. The study examined the impact on sources of information, agricultural knowledge, and farming practices. It also analyzed peer effects and information sharing. The results of the study will provide insights into the effectiveness of using mobile phones to deliver agricultural extension services and the diffusion of information among farmers.
The document presents a dynamic discrete choice model of demand for insecticide treated nets (ITNs) that accounts for time inconsistent preferences and unobserved heterogeneity. The model has three periods where agents make ITN purchase and retreatment decisions. Agents are either time consistent, "naive" time inconsistent, or "sophisticated" time inconsistent. The model is identified in two steps - first when types are directly observed using survey responses, and second when types are unobserved. Identification exploits variation from elicited beliefs about malaria risk. The model can point identify time preference parameters and utility functions up to a normalization.
Cash and vouchers led to starkly different purchasing patterns. Voucher recipients purchased fewer types of items compared to cash recipients, indicating the voucher was extra-marginal for some food items. However, there were few differences in other outcomes like food security and asset ownership between the groups. Cash recipients were able to save more of the transfer value since vouchers could only be spent on certain goods. The voucher program also had higher costs for the implementing agency than cash transfers.
This study examines the stability of social, risk, and time preferences over multiple years using data from 2002, 2007, 2009, and 2010. The main findings are:
1. Risk preferences are not stable over time, while time preferences are highly stable.
2. Experimental measures of social preferences like altruism and trust show little stability over time.
3. There is some evidence that previous experimental outcomes can influence preferences in later experiments, such as being unlucky increasing later risk aversion or being paired with a generous partner increasing later generosity.
4. However, the impacts across experiments are small and the results should be interpreted cautiously due to sample attrition and differences in experimental designs over the years.
The study evaluated the impact of an alternative cash transfer program for education in Morocco that provided small, unlabeled cash transfers to fathers in poor communities. Over two years:
1. The unconditional cash transfers reduced the school dropout rate by 67-75% among children enrolled at baseline and increased school reentry by 85% among previous dropouts.
2. Adding attendance conditions did not provide additional educational gains compared to the unconditional transfers.
3. There was also little difference in impacts between transfers made to mothers versus fathers.
4. The program appeared to work in part by changing parents' perceptions of the returns to education and quality of local schools, without directly imposing conditions.
This document describes a study examining how increased access to mobile phones impacted small boat manufacturers in Kerala, India. The researchers conducted a census of 143 boat builders from 1997-2004, collecting data on output, prices, and boat quality. Prior to phones, builders only served local demand. Phones increased information sharing, allowing fishermen to learn about distant builders. This likely expanded each builder's effective market size. The study tests if this led more productive builders to grow and less productive ones to exit, increasing average firm size and productivity over time. The natural experiment from phone diffusion provides an opportunity to study these impacts.
The document discusses increasing girls' enrollment in secondary schools in India. It notes that the gender gap in education is more pronounced in Bihar, with girls' enrollment dropping off sharply at age 14 when transitioning to secondary schools. Distance to secondary schools is a major barrier, with enrollment declining as distance increases. The authors propose exploring cost-effective, scalable alternatives to expanding access beyond the default approach of school construction, such as providing bicycles.
This document analyzes the long-term effects of the 1832 Cherokee Land Lottery on wealth using census and other data. It finds that those who received land titles in the lottery on average had higher wealth levels in 1850 and 1860 compared to those who did not receive titles, even after controlling for other factors. The effects were larger for those matched to land closest to gold deposits discovered in the 1830s.
Hiring knowledge agents to spread information about a public health insurance scheme in rural India had a positive impact on villagers' knowledge about the scheme. The effect was entirely driven by agents on incentive pay contracts, who received bonuses based on villagers' knowledge levels. Improved knowledge, in turn, increased enrollment in the scheme. Social distance between agent and villager had a negative impact on knowledge transmission, but incentive pay canceled out this effect. The study used a randomized controlled trial to test these relationships, hiring different types of agents (fixed pay vs incentive pay) across villages.
1. The document analyzes maternal beliefs about the technology of skill formation in children.
2. Objective estimates of the technology are obtained using data on skills, investments, and health conditions of children over time. These estimates find that investments have a statistically significant effect on skills.
3. Maternal beliefs about the technology are heterogeneous and may differ systematically from objective estimates if mothers are misinformed. Comparing beliefs to estimates could reveal if certain groups are misinformed.
This study evaluates a performance incentive program in Mexican high schools aimed at improving mathematics achievement. It provided monetary incentives to students (T1), teachers (T2), or both (T3) based on scores on curriculum-aligned mathematics tests. The program was implemented over three school years in 88 schools randomly assigned to treatment or control groups. Initial results found positive effects on test scores, with the largest effects in the treatment combining incentives for both students and teachers.
The document analyzes how pro-poor growth, or reducing poverty, will impact global energy demand. It develops an economic model showing that as household income grows over time in a nonlinear way, ownership of durable goods like refrigerators also increases nonlinearly. The model predicts that the pace of income growth matters, with more uneven income growth leading to higher durable ownership. Analysis of a Mexican anti-poverty program confirms the model's predictions, showing that households receiving more uneven transfers over time were more likely to acquire refrigerators. The findings suggest that projections of energy demand need to account for how rapidly populations rise out of poverty to avoid underestimating future demand.
The document summarizes a study that evaluated the impact of a business literacy intervention in rural Mexico. The intervention provided free 6-week business skills courses taught by professors and students to about 25 women entrepreneurs per class. The courses covered topics like accounting, pricing, taxes, and marketing. The study found that the training led to large, positive and significant effects on profits, revenues, and number of clients both in the short- and medium-run. There was also evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects. The results suggest the training improved accounting practices, lowered costs, increased mark-ups, and in some cases lowered prices.
The document describes an experiment conducted in Malawi to test if job referral networks disadvantage women. The experiment found that when people could refer either men or women, only 30% of referrals were women, compared to 38% of initial applicants. However, when people could only refer one gender, men and women referred at similar rates regardless of the gender they were restricted to. This suggests social incentives rather than differences in productivity lead referral networks to disadvantage women.
The document summarizes research on the quality of life insurance advice provided by agents in India. It finds that agents overwhelmingly recommend whole life policies over term life policies, even when term policies better meet customers' needs for risk coverage at low cost. Agents are motivated to recommend whole life due to higher commissions. The research tests whether the quality of advice improves when disclosure requirements make agency problems more transparent or when competition is increased. It uses an audit study approach with standardized customer profiles to evaluate agent recommendations across conditions.
The paper analyzes the price effects of cash versus in-kind transfers using data from a randomized experiment in Mexico. It finds that:
1) Prices for goods decline more for in-kind transfers than for cash transfers, with the difference in price effects being statistically significant.
2) The price effects are larger in more remote villages, consistent with those villages having more closed economies and less competition.
3) The results provide empirical evidence that in-kind transfers can have larger impacts on prices than cash transfers due to introducing supply as well as demand for goods in local markets.
This document provides an overview of a study that estimates a dynamic agricultural production model using observed subjective distributions from farmers in Tanzania. The key points are:
1) The study measures farmers' subjective probability distributions over expected crop prices and yields at different points throughout the growing season. This allows the authors to relax rational expectations assumptions and incorporate observed expectations.
2) The model assumes crops grow according to a nested CES production function with labor, pesticides, and lagged output as inputs. Farmers are assumed to maximize expected profits subject to shocks modeled by subjective distributions.
3) Identification of the shock distributions gt(θt) is needed to estimate the model parameters but the study only observes subjective output
This document summarizes a study on the long-term effects of teacher performance pay in India. The study conducted a 5-year randomized controlled trial across hundreds of schools in Andhra Pradesh. Schools were randomly assigned to receive either individual or group-based teacher incentives linked to student test scores, or to serve as controls. The study finds that students whose teachers received individual incentives scored significantly higher than controls on math and language tests after 5 years of exposure. They also scored higher on non-incentivized subjects. The study provides some of the longest-running and most robust evidence on performance pay for teachers.
The document discusses subsidies for malaria treatment. It notes that malaria kills over 1 million people per year. A new effective drug called ACT is available but unaffordable for most. A program called AMFm aims to reduce ACT prices via subsidies to improve access and fight drug resistance, but there is a risk of overtreatment which could waste money and contribute to drug resistance. The paper aims to study how to balance improved access and targeting of subsidies for ACT malaria treatment.
This document summarizes a study that evaluated the impact of a mobile phone-based agricultural advice and information service called Avaaj Otalo (AO) on cotton farmers in Gujarat, India. The study used a randomized controlled trial with 1,200 farmers randomized to either receive AO, AO plus physical extension sessions, or serve as pure controls. The study examined the impact on sources of information, agricultural knowledge, and farming practices. It also analyzed peer effects and information sharing. The results of the study will provide insights into the effectiveness of using mobile phones to deliver agricultural extension services and the diffusion of information among farmers.
The document presents a dynamic discrete choice model of demand for insecticide treated nets (ITNs) that accounts for time inconsistent preferences and unobserved heterogeneity. The model has three periods where agents make ITN purchase and retreatment decisions. Agents are either time consistent, "naive" time inconsistent, or "sophisticated" time inconsistent. The model is identified in two steps - first when types are directly observed using survey responses, and second when types are unobserved. Identification exploits variation from elicited beliefs about malaria risk. The model can point identify time preference parameters and utility functions up to a normalization.
1. Trade, Institutions and Ethnic Tolerance:
Evidence from South Asia
Saumitra Jha
Stanford Graduate School of Business
Fellow, CSDP and Niehaus CGG, Princeton
IFPRI, October 2012
3. Feb-Apr 2002: Ahmadabad massacres, Surat peace
Ahmadabad: 13 percent
Muslim: 24+ days rioting,
324+ dead (including old city).
*
#
Surat: 12.3 percent Muslim: 6
Ahmadabad
days of rioting, 9+ dead (in
*
# "
*
#
*
#
Godhra
$
new suburbs)
*
#
*
#
*
#
*
#
Over the course of 20th
*
#
*
#
*
#
*
#
# Surat
*
*
#
*
#
century- Ahmadabad
*
#
riot-prone;
Surat, “an oasis of peace”.
0 30 60 120 Miles
4. The research agenda
How do we encourage cooperation and peaceful
co-existence between members of different ethnic,
religious and social groups?
What strategies have achieved these aims historically?
What lessons can such strategies provide for
contemporary policy?
Financial innovations (“Swords into Bank Shares”)(Jha 08,
Jha and Mitchener, in prog.)
Organizational capacity acquired through war (among
vulnerable minorities)(Jha and Wilkinson 12)
Exogenous ∆ inter-ethnic complementarities
5. This paper
Can exogenous changes that generate robust inter-ethnic
complementarities have a lasting effect on peaceful
co-existence in ethnically- diverse societies?
In South Asia- yes.
6. This paper finds...
200 yrs after decline of exogenous, non-replicable minority
complementarities in overseas trade, medieval ports that were
the geographical focuses of the resulting Hindu-Muslim
exchange:
5x ↓ Hindu-Muslim riots (S. Asia, 1850-1950), (Gujarat, 2002).
25 pp ↓ any Hindu-Muslim riot
10x ↑ survival probability of tolerance each year (though
diminishing over time).
Despite: ↑ ethnic mix, ↓ income. In fact, effects bigger in larger,
more ethnically diverse towns. Further, household and
town-level evidence for:
∆ voting consistent with minority safe havens (Gujarat 2002)
∆ in between group inequality, membership in inter-ethnic
organizations, sustained ethnic specialization in trade, behavioural
measures of minority trust, 2005
7. Mechanisms: what it might be and what it ain’t
Evidence that highlights role of exogenous non-replicable
minority complementarity. Not just:
. . . Historic wealth in towns which lacked complementarities (mint
towns).
. . . Or medieval trade (inland trade routes) or modern trade (modern
ports) where complementarities could be replicated
. . . Or survivorship (medieval towns)
. . . Or historic human capital by itself (artisanal towns) - in fact human
capital and institutions are complements
. . . Or selection of ports due to continued congenial geography
Silted medieval ports show similar effects to other ports.
Medieval natural harbour driver of medieval port location
was medieval period-specific (does not predict colonial
ports).
9. Medieval ports and religious violence in India
Towns, Not Medieval Natural Harbours, Not Medieval Ports
Ports Medieval Ports
Riots, 1850-1950 Obs Mean SD Obs Mean SD Obs Mean SD
# of Hindu-Muslim Riots 476 1.116 3.416 53 0.925 5.487 59 0.136 0.472
Any H-M Riot 476 0.418 0.494 53 0.170 0.379 59 0.102 0.305
# Killed in H-M Riots 476 23.277 242.361 53 88.906 639.995 59 0.136 0.571
Total Days of H-M Riots 476 1.630 11.301 53 3.000 20.598 59 0.051 0.289
Colonial Era Outcomes and Covariates
% Muslims 1901 244 29.879 17.732 20 18.596 14.884 22 32.449 22.101
Mun. Income per Capita 316 1.805 3.092 28 2.155 2.6382 28 1.580 1.103
Colonial Overseas Port (1907) 476 0.038 0.191 53 0.170 0.379 59 0.356 0.483
Log. Population 1901 476 9.672 1.129 53 9.420 1.209 59 9.170 1.315
10. A paradox?
Montesquieu (18C): commerce encourages “civility”
between individuals due to mutual self-interest.
However: Chua (21C): commercially-oriented ethnic
minorities are often the focuses of ethnic violence.
Examples:
Chinese in Indonesia
Indians in East Africa
Many others.
11. A framework
Focus: environments with “non-local” ethnic minorities: better
outside options.
Our example: “non-local” Muslim traders had external
resources (information and ties to the Middle East): made
leaving town less costly than for “local” Hindus.
12. Conditions that favour “peaceful co-existence”
(SPNE with mixed populations, full production, no leaving)
1. Non-locals provide complementary goods
If not: “strong” locals have incentive to target non-locals to
seize goods and induce non-locals to leave, reducing future
competition
If so: reduced incentive for ethnic violence: if non-locals
leave, non-local- supplied goods become more costly in
future.
2. High cost to seize or replicate source of other group’s
complementarity.
If not: incentive to violently seize or (over time) replicate.
3. Mechanism to redistribute gains from exchange
If not: complementarity + limited supply ⇒ higher returns
for non-local goods⇒ incentive for strong locals to seize
non-local profits.
Formal model
13. Muslims in medieval Indian ports
Complementarity:
Pilgrimage ↔ Trade
Non-expropriable,
replicable (intangible,
network externalities)
Non-violent transfers:
Ease of entry
Complementary
“institutional”
mechanisms: cultural
norms, organizations,
beliefs.
(source: Diogo Homem 1558)
14. A 1000 years of religious tolerance?
Now in all these (Malabari ports) the
population became much increased and the
number of buildings enlarged, by means of the
trade carried on by the Mahomedans, towards
whom the chieftains of those places abstained
from all oppression; and, notwithstanding that
these rulers and their troops were all pagans,
they paid much regard to their prejudices and
customs, and avoided any act of aggression on
Hogenburg the Mahomedans, except on some
and extraordinary provocation; this amicable
Braun footing being the more remarkable, from the
(1572) circumstance of the Mahomedans not forming
a tenth part of the population . . .
- Shaikh Zaynnudin al Ma’abari,
Tuhfat-ul-Mujahideen, 1528.
15. Definitions
Riots
a violent confrontation between 2 communally-identified
groups
newspaper reports, official records
Medieval trading ports:
Evidence of direct overseas trade, prior to 18th C &
independent of Europeans.
Periplus Maris Erythraei (ca. 1st-3rd C) Traveller’s
narratives (eg Ibn Battuta 1355, di Verthema 1503, Zayn al
Din 1528) Imperial gazetteers (1907)
17. GIS allows a rich set of controls and correlates
1. Initial geographic factors: Latitude/ Longitude2 , Prox. to
coast, coastal town, Prop. natural disasters, Prox.
navigable rivers
2. Historical factors: Prox. Ganges (caste), Centuries
Muslim Rule, Mint Town, Skilled Crafts, Historical Shi’a rule
3. Contemporaneous factors: Province / Native State
intercepts, Modern overseas port
4. Correlates: Prop. Muslim 2 in town, district, Municipal
income per capita