The document provides an economic outlook and projections for Mongolia in 2016-2017. It discusses factors such as fiscal policy, external environment, monetary policy, banking sector, commodity prices, current account balance, and foreign direct investment. Equations are presented for predicting exports, imports, the current account balance, and foreign direct investment under pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic scenarios. Projections show FDI ranging from -190.7 million USD in a pessimistic case to 850.5 million USD under an optimistic outlook by the end of 2016.
Driven by sluggish global cues and profit booking the markets end in red on F&O expiry day. Sensex lost over 100 points to end below 19900. Realty & PSU stocks led the gainers with related indices gaining over 1% each. On the other end, despite good quarterly results by the banking players, the bankex was the top loser among BSE sectorial indices.
The Indian Equity market remained remained positive throughout last week as the indices posted a gain of 1.6 percent each largely supported by metal, auto, energy and infra stocks. The Nifty50 index managed to close above 11,000 for the first time since September 2018. Nifty gained 172 points in the truncated week ended March 8. On a weekly basis, the rupee rose over 1
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015Epic Research Singapore
Epic Research private limited have best technical research team, Our research team provide Daily report on SGX Singapore and SGX Exchange, You can get Daily Favorable Tips & future Strategy for SGX Stocks Market.
After 5 weeks of continues bullish run, Indian Equity market ended its positive streak as index closed first time on negative note in last one month on weekly basis. Underperformance in most of the major Global market was the key reason for market to close on negative note.
FAISAL BASRI: Subsidi BBM Sudah Bewujud Kanker GanasRuslan Chandra
Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik "Subsidi BBM, Solusi atau Masalah?" Minggu, 7 September 2014 bertempat di
Double Bay Lounge and Resto, Lobby Ibis Budget (ex Formula 1) Plaza Menteng GF 9-10, Jl Cokroaminoto 79 Jakarta Pusat.
Pembicara :
Ir. Hasto Kristiyanto, MM (Wakil Sekjend PDIP)
Faisal Basri (Pengamat Ekonomi)
Joko Anwar (Seniman Indonesia)
Olga Lydia (Seniman Indonesia)
Moderator : Azwar Zulkarnaen (FDEP).
Upload by: Ruslan Andy Chandra
http://liputansatu.blogspot.com/2014/09/faisal-basri-subsidi-bbm-solusi-atau.html.
Sumber: Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik (FDEP),
Following a gap up start on firm global cues, markets dipped in late morning session and again took off since then to close in green with handsome gains. Positive U.S. economic data & Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement evincing support to stimulus program buoyed sentiments globally including India. Additionally, sentiments got further boost after Economic Survey 2013 projected a higher growth and lower inflation for fiscal 2013-14. Nifty closed just below 5800.
Driven by sluggish global cues and profit booking the markets end in red on F&O expiry day. Sensex lost over 100 points to end below 19900. Realty & PSU stocks led the gainers with related indices gaining over 1% each. On the other end, despite good quarterly results by the banking players, the bankex was the top loser among BSE sectorial indices.
The Indian Equity market remained remained positive throughout last week as the indices posted a gain of 1.6 percent each largely supported by metal, auto, energy and infra stocks. The Nifty50 index managed to close above 11,000 for the first time since September 2018. Nifty gained 172 points in the truncated week ended March 8. On a weekly basis, the rupee rose over 1
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015Epic Research Singapore
Epic Research private limited have best technical research team, Our research team provide Daily report on SGX Singapore and SGX Exchange, You can get Daily Favorable Tips & future Strategy for SGX Stocks Market.
After 5 weeks of continues bullish run, Indian Equity market ended its positive streak as index closed first time on negative note in last one month on weekly basis. Underperformance in most of the major Global market was the key reason for market to close on negative note.
FAISAL BASRI: Subsidi BBM Sudah Bewujud Kanker GanasRuslan Chandra
Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik "Subsidi BBM, Solusi atau Masalah?" Minggu, 7 September 2014 bertempat di
Double Bay Lounge and Resto, Lobby Ibis Budget (ex Formula 1) Plaza Menteng GF 9-10, Jl Cokroaminoto 79 Jakarta Pusat.
Pembicara :
Ir. Hasto Kristiyanto, MM (Wakil Sekjend PDIP)
Faisal Basri (Pengamat Ekonomi)
Joko Anwar (Seniman Indonesia)
Olga Lydia (Seniman Indonesia)
Moderator : Azwar Zulkarnaen (FDEP).
Upload by: Ruslan Andy Chandra
http://liputansatu.blogspot.com/2014/09/faisal-basri-subsidi-bbm-solusi-atau.html.
Sumber: Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik (FDEP),
Following a gap up start on firm global cues, markets dipped in late morning session and again took off since then to close in green with handsome gains. Positive U.S. economic data & Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement evincing support to stimulus program buoyed sentiments globally including India. Additionally, sentiments got further boost after Economic Survey 2013 projected a higher growth and lower inflation for fiscal 2013-14. Nifty closed just below 5800.
Epic research daily commodity report 07th mar 2017Epic Research
Epic Research Limited counts as the top research providing firm all over India as well as other global markets. We can say that 'Market Research' is the soul of the organization and the trust builder for the client base.
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 12 February 2015Epic Research Singapore
Epic Research private limited have best technical research team, Our research team provide Daily report on SGX Singapore and SGX Exchange, You can get Daily Favorable Tips & future Strategy for SGX Stocks Market.
Ways2Capital is one of the leading research house across the globe. The company basically provides recommendations for stocks cash & F&O traded in NSE & BSE,commodities including bullions, metals and agro commodities traded in MCX & NCDEX.
After yesterday’s massacre, some happiness returned on D-street as key benchmarks rose in the late morning deals despite mixed global cues. Finance Ministry’s clarification on validity of Tax Residency Certificate (TRC) provided the needed impetus to bounce back from yesterday’s lows. Finance Minister’s announcement on TRC during budget speech had earlier confused the foreign investors. Markets continued to trade in positive before closing in green with trimmed gains. Nifty gained 0.47% to close above 5700. Sensex gained 57 points to close above 18900.
The QE Index rose 3.3% to close at 8,433.0. Gains were led by the Consumer Goods & Services and Transportation indices, gaining 7.7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Special report by epic research of 03 october 2017Epic Research
Epic Research prepares a special report on a daily basis which provides share market overview to the investors in brief. We aim to serve you best in class financial services at affordable prices.
Epic Research has India's best experienced research analyst they keep on eyes 24*7 on market and update Daily & Weekly report of trading market in all market segments like Equity,Comex,Commodity,Forex etc.
This presentation analyses increase in price of oil in a decade 2000s in Pakistan and its repercussions for the economy with policy solution to minimize impact of future price increases.
In the week ended July 27 Indian market climbed to record high. Equity benchmarks ended July series de-rivative expiry on a cheerful note as the Nifty closed at 11306.70 after making new record highs of
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 10 February 2015Epic Research Singapore
Epic Research private limited have best technical research team, Our research team provide Daily report on SGX Singapore and SGX Exchange, You can get Daily Favorable Tips & future Strategy for SGX Stocks Market.
Epic research daily commodity report 07th mar 2017Epic Research
Epic Research Limited counts as the top research providing firm all over India as well as other global markets. We can say that 'Market Research' is the soul of the organization and the trust builder for the client base.
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 12 February 2015Epic Research Singapore
Epic Research private limited have best technical research team, Our research team provide Daily report on SGX Singapore and SGX Exchange, You can get Daily Favorable Tips & future Strategy for SGX Stocks Market.
Ways2Capital is one of the leading research house across the globe. The company basically provides recommendations for stocks cash & F&O traded in NSE & BSE,commodities including bullions, metals and agro commodities traded in MCX & NCDEX.
After yesterday’s massacre, some happiness returned on D-street as key benchmarks rose in the late morning deals despite mixed global cues. Finance Ministry’s clarification on validity of Tax Residency Certificate (TRC) provided the needed impetus to bounce back from yesterday’s lows. Finance Minister’s announcement on TRC during budget speech had earlier confused the foreign investors. Markets continued to trade in positive before closing in green with trimmed gains. Nifty gained 0.47% to close above 5700. Sensex gained 57 points to close above 18900.
The QE Index rose 3.3% to close at 8,433.0. Gains were led by the Consumer Goods & Services and Transportation indices, gaining 7.7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Special report by epic research of 03 october 2017Epic Research
Epic Research prepares a special report on a daily basis which provides share market overview to the investors in brief. We aim to serve you best in class financial services at affordable prices.
Epic Research has India's best experienced research analyst they keep on eyes 24*7 on market and update Daily & Weekly report of trading market in all market segments like Equity,Comex,Commodity,Forex etc.
This presentation analyses increase in price of oil in a decade 2000s in Pakistan and its repercussions for the economy with policy solution to minimize impact of future price increases.
In the week ended July 27 Indian market climbed to record high. Equity benchmarks ended July series de-rivative expiry on a cheerful note as the Nifty closed at 11306.70 after making new record highs of
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 10 February 2015Epic Research Singapore
Epic Research private limited have best technical research team, Our research team provide Daily report on SGX Singapore and SGX Exchange, You can get Daily Favorable Tips & future Strategy for SGX Stocks Market.
Summarizes recent research that has linked hearing loss to more serious conditions such as dementia, Alzheimer's Disease, memory impairment, and general cognitive decline.
Market performance for 6th January 2015 complied by CSL Stockbrokers Limited Headquarters, Lagos Nigeria containing detailed market analysis from the Nigerian Stock Exchange.
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This is a small effort to present Bangladesh in numbers. Hopefully, this compilation will reveal the stories that are changing Bangladesh, but often fail to make the buzz they deserve.
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𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 provides unlimited package services including such as Event organizing, Event planning, Event production, Manpower, PR marketing, Design 2D/3D, VIP protocols, Interpreter agency, etc.
Sports events - Golf competitions/billiards competitions/company sports events: dynamic and challenging
⭐ 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬:
➢ 2024 BAEKHYUN [Lonsdaleite] IN HO CHI MINH
➢ SUPER JUNIOR-L.S.S. THE SHOW : Th3ee Guys in HO CHI MINH
➢FreenBecky 1st Fan Meeting in Vietnam
➢CHILDREN ART EXHIBITION 2024: BEYOND BARRIERS
➢ WOW K-Music Festival 2023
➢ Winner [CROSS] Tour in HCM
➢ Super Show 9 in HCM with Super Junior
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➢ Korean Vietnam Partnership - Fair with LG
➢ Korean President visits Samsung Electronics R&D Center
➢ Vietnam Food Expo with Lotte Wellfood
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Although discipline is not a one-size-fits-all approach, it can help create a work environment that encourages personal growth and accountability rather than solely relying on punitive measures.
In this deck, you will learn the significance of workplace discipline for organisational success. You’ll also learn
• Four (4) workplace discipline methods you should consider
• The best and most practical approach to implementing workplace discipline.
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8. Fall of the commodity price and
period
Commodity 𝒗 𝒂 𝝀 𝒕∗ Fall continues until
Coal 1.986 0.025 -0.74 13 2016M10
Copper 125.1 1.474 -0.78 13 2016M10
Gold 22.52 0.200 -1.14 13 2016M10
Iron Ore 11.51 0.122 -0.86 14 2016M11
Oil 1.41 0.015 -0.54 16 2017M01
6
From the calculation based on dynamic method, the fall of the commodity price shall
continue through Oct 2016.
9. Coal export has lost its leading position and copper took over. Coal and copper
combined contributes 61.5% of total export.
7
Эх сурвалж: Үндэсний статистикийн хороо
Export composition
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Export of mineral commodities
/YTD, in Million USD/
Мөнгөжөөгүй алт
Зэс
Төмрийн хүдэр
Боловсруулаагүй
газрын тос
Нүүрс
Gold
Copper
Iron Ore
Raw oil
Coal
9.02%
49.21%
0.69%
1.27%
5.60%
2.24%
3.73%
0.94%
12.25%
8.08%
Мөнгөжөөгүй алт
Зэс
Молибдений хүдэр ба
баяжмал
Жоншны хүдэр ба
баяжмал
Төмрийн хүдэр
Цайрын хүдэр ба баяжмал
Бохир ноолуур
Самнасан ноолуур
Нүүрс
Боловсруулаагүй газрын
тос
Gold
Copper
Molibdenium
Flour Spar
Iron Ore
Zinc
Cashmere,
Cashmere, washed
Coal
Oil
Source: National Statistical Office
10. Equipment imports has dropped back to its 2010 level, fuel import to 2011 level,
and car import to 2010 level. However they still make the most part (55.7%) of
the imports.8
Source: National Statistical Office
Import Composition
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Нийт импорт /жилийн өссөн дүн, сая ам.доллар/
Машин, механик төхөөрөмж
Түлш, шатахуун
Тээврийн хэрэгсэл, эд анги
Төмөрлөгөөр хийсэн бүтээгдэхүүн
Хүнсний бэлэн бүтээгдэхүүн
Химийн бүтээгдэхүүн
Хуванцар, каучук
Чулуу, гөлтгөнө, цемент, шилэн сав
Ургамлын гаралтай бүтээгдэхүүн
Мал амьтны гаралтай бүтээгдэхүүн
19.5%
26.4%
9.8%
9.5%
8.6%
7.0%
3.9%
2.9%
2.0%
1.1%
Машин, механик
төхөөрөмж
Түлш, шатахуун
Тээврийн хэрэгсэл, эд
анги
Төмөрлөгөөр хийсэн
бүтээгдэхүүн
Хүнсний бэлэн
бүтээгдэхүүн
Химийн бүтээгдэхүүн
Хуванцар, каучук
Чулуу, гөлтгөнө, цемент,
шилэн сав
Ургамлын гаралтай
бүтээгдэхүүн
Мал амьтны гаралтай
бүтээгдэхүүн
Equipments, heavy
Fuel
Cars
Metal products
Food
Chemical goods
Plastic goods
Stone, cement, glass
Natural products
Animal goods
Equipments &
machineries
Fuel
Cars
Metal products
Food
Chemical goods
Plastic goods
Stone, cement,
glass
Natural products
Animal goods
14. Projections of the Foreign Direct
Investment
Date
Pessimisti
c
Realistic Optimistic
Pessimistic
/abs/
Realistic
/abs/
Optimistic
/abs/
2015M12 -1.5% 0.8% 2.6% -181.6 99.3 310.9
2016M03 -1.9% 1.2% 3.6% -228.2 138.7 424.4
2016M06 -1.8% 2.1% 4.8% -218.5 244.8 570.8
2016M09 -1.7% 2.7% 5.8% -201.3 319.2 686.6
2016M12 -1.6% 3.7% 7.1% -190.7 441.3 850.5
In million USD
12
Pessimistic case scenario: There is no new investments but the current downward inertia will
continue and FDI will reach -190.7 million USD.
Realistic case scenario: Certain investments, such as Eg River Hydro power plant, will push the
investment up to 441.3 million USD.
Optimistic case scenario: First deployment of OT 2nd phase and Tavan tolgoi investment will
boost the investment to 850.5 million USD.
16. Source: Ministry of finance
As of Sep 2015, stabilized budget income fell short by 787.9 billion MNT and therefore budget
was at 865 billion MNT deficit. Major factor influenced was VAT of imported goods – 263.4 billion
MNT, privatization income – 141.5 billion MNT.
Shortfall of Fiscal income
-1,075.7
-886.3 -865.0
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400 Төсвийн алдагдал, тэрбум төгрөгFiscal deficit, Billion MNT
13
17. Source: Ministry of Finance
14
Total debt reached 216.7% of the country’s GDP. Out of this, state debts accounts for 61.4% and other
debts for 155.3%. Debt per capita is 16 million MNT and debt servicing per head per day is 45’345
MNT.
In 2016 government is to pay some 857 billion MNT for debt repayment.
Government debt /billion MNT/ 2015M03
Government foreign debt
10191.9
- Foreign loan
- Securities
- Guarantees
Domestic debt
3720.6
- Government securities
State debt 13912.5
GDP (Nominal, billion MNT) 22672.4
State debt / GDP 61.4%
Total Debt
Other debts /million USD/ 2015M06
Central bank 1851.3
Banks 2099.8
Other industries 3458.4
Private companies 10521.6
Total 17931.1
GDP (Nominal, Million USD) 11546.6
Other debts / GDP 155.3%
Source: Mongolbank
18. 15
In 2015, we will pay some 233 million USD for interest payment.
Foreign currency stock required for debt servicing
Borrowings Currency Amount
/ in mln USD /
Interest Interest payment
/ in mln USD /
Development
bank bond
USD 580 5.75% 33.35
MMC bond USD 600 8.875% 53.25
TDB 2017 Yuan 115 10% 11.5
TDB 2020 USD 500 9.375 46.875
Chingis 2018 USD 500 4.125% 20.625
Chingis 2022 Usd 1000 5.125% 51.25
Samurai 2023 JPY 290 1.52% 4.408
Mongol 2018 USD 160 7.5% 12
22. As of August 2015, total loan has exceeded money supply by 2 billion MNT. An excessive lending has
eroded external net assets.
Source: Mongolbank
Money supply and Loan
18
-3742
14777
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000 Гадаад цэвэр актив /тэрбум. төг/
Дотоод цэвэр зээл /тэрбум. төг/
External net assets /bln MNT/
Domestic net assets /bln MNT/
9938.6
11938.5
200
2200
4200
6200
8200
10200
12200
14200 Мөнгөний нийлүүлэлт /тэрбум төгрөг/
Нийт зээл /тэрбум төг/
Money Supply /bln MNT/
Total Loan /bln MNT/
23. Foreign exchange reserve, as of Sep 2015, is at 1.4 billion USD. Fluctuation of the Reserve money
is remained high.
Source: Mongolbank
Foreign exchange reserve and reserve money
1413
250
750
1250
1750
2250
2750
3250
3750
4250
4750 Foreign exchange reserve
/million USD/
2410
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Reserve money
/Billion MNT/
19
24. 20
Central bank’s intervention
to the local currency market
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Series: USD_SUP
Sample 1 56
Observations 56
Mean 15.89018
Median 11.45000
Maximum 140.0000
Minimum 1.000000
Std. Dev. 20.19931
Skewness 4.573324
Kurtosis 27.26309
Jarque-Bera 1568.837
Probability 0.000000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Series: CNY_SUP
Sample 1 56
Observations 55
Mean 50.81582
Median 48.00000
Maximum 123.9000
Minimum 6.000000
Std. Dev. 24.38581
Skewness 0.870978
Kurtosis 3.985178
Jarque-Bera 9.178096
Probability 0.010163
So far this year, central bank has spent 869.4 million USD and 2.5 billion Yuan in intervention.
25. 21
Equations of exchange rate
𝐵𝑂𝑃𝑡 = 𝐶𝐴𝐷𝑡 + 𝐶𝐹𝐴 𝑡 + 𝑁𝐸0
EQUATION OF BALANCE OF THE PAYMENT
EQUATION OF ASSETS AND FINANCE
𝐶𝐹𝐴 𝑡 = 𝐶𝐴0 + 𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑡 + 𝐹𝐴0 + 𝑂𝐼𝑡
EQUATION OF OTHER INVESTMENTS IN THE BALANCE OF PAYMENT
𝑂𝐼𝑡 = 𝑂𝐼0 + 𝜆 ∙ 𝐵𝐷𝑡
EQUATION OF THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE OF THE CURRENCY
𝜀𝑡 = 𝛾 ∙
𝐵 𝑑 − 𝐵𝑠
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑡
= 𝛾 ∙
𝐵𝑂𝑃𝑡
𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡
EQUATION OF THE REAL CHANGE OF THE RATE
𝜀𝑡 = 𝜋 − 𝑒 − 𝜋 𝑓
26. 𝑀𝑡 𝑣0 = 𝑃𝑡 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡
EQUATION OF MONEY STOCK THEORY
EQUATION TO FORECAST THE EXCHANGE RATE
By combining the above mentioned equation, we can now build an equation of exchange
rate.
𝑒𝑡 = 0.22 + 0.42𝑒𝑡−1 − 0.43
𝑀
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑡
+ 0.69𝐸𝑡
𝐵𝐷𝑡+1
𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡+1
− 0.29
𝐹𝐷𝐼
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑡
− 0.81
𝐶𝐴𝐷
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑡
− 0.6𝑦𝑡
(2.86) (3.13) (-2.07) (2.34) (-1.8) (-4.13) (-2.24)
𝑛 = 46, 𝑅2
= 0.75
∆2
𝑀
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑡
= 0.003 − 0.98
𝑀
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑡−1
− 0.72𝑢 𝑡−3
(2.26) (-6.11) (-2.07)
𝑛 = 45, 𝑅2
= 0.61
22
27. FX forecast
Assuming that economic would keep up its current pace of 3%, and Fiscal deficit is managed within 4% of
the GDP, then currency rate is forecasted as follows.
1997 1994
2017
1983
2011
1977
1997
1981
1999
1961
1986
1934
1997
1971
1985
1945
1968
1905
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4
Гутранги Нейтрал ӨөдрөгPessimistic Neautral Optimistic
US dollar exchange rate us forecasted to be at 1977 if the FDI stays at today’s
level, at 1934 if the FDI increases by 441 million USD, at 1905 of the FDI
increases by 850 million USD annually.
23
29. Growth of assets and liability of banking sector
Growth of the loan portfolio has been decelerated and went below the growth of its
funding. One can observe that correction is done over 6-10 months time period
until its finally ready to grow again.
24
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Банкны салбарын активын өсөлт
Банкны салбарын зээлийн өсөлт
Банкны салбарын харилцах, хадгаламжийн өсөлт
Growth of the total assets of the banking sector
Growth of loan portfolio
Growth of Current account and deposits
30. Margin
Source: Mongolbank
25
Profits of the banking industry fell back to 2013 level.
-143.4
358.9
206.0
-180
-80
20
120
220
320
420
2004M03
2004M07
2004M11
2005M03
2005M07
2005M11
2006M03
2006M07
2006M11
2007M03
2007M07
2007M11
2008M03
2008M07
2008M11
2009M03
2009M07
2009M11
2010M03
2010M07
2010M11
2011M03
2011M07
2011M11
2012M03
2012M07
2012M11
2013M03
2013M07
2013M11
2014M03
2014M07
2014M11
2015M03
2015M07
Банкны салбарын тухайн оны ашиг, алдагдал, тэрбум төгрөгөөрNet profit after tax, in billion MNT
31. Non performing loan(NPL) grew 41.7 percent for the first 9 months, y-o-y. The
NPL ratio is increased to 7% as lending is reduced.
Source: Mongolbank
Non-performing loan
7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
NPL rate of banking sector
87
189
266
353
462
317
453
590
747
837
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Amount of the NPLs
/in billion MNts/
26
32. Non-performing loan by industries
Source: Mongolbank, as of 2nd quarter of 2015
Industries Total Loan
Non-Performing
loan
NPL Ratio
Mining 1,113.38 261.6 23.5%
Manufacturing 1,289.46 96.18 7.5%
Construction 1,593.02 86.64 5.4%
Trade 1625.01 200.17 12.3%
Agreculture 355.26 16.44 4.6%
Transportation, Warehouse 154.67 22.1 14.3%
Housing and food 226.58 17.79 7.9%
Mining industry is classified as Toxic, Trade industry as Severe, transportation
and warehouse industry as Severe.
27
33. Equation of the NPL forecasting
𝑁𝑃𝐿 𝑡 = 0.008 + 1.014 ∙ 𝑁𝑃𝐿 𝑡−1 + 0.033 ∙
𝐶𝐴𝐷
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑡
− 0.029 ∙ 𝑚 𝑡 + 0.061 ∙ 𝑒𝑡
(1.90) (26.48) (2.93) (-3.13) (3.49)
𝑛 = 46, 𝑅2
= 0.94
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
9.9%
10.7%
11.5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4
Зээлийн чанаргүйдлийн хувьNPL Ratio
28
NPL is set grow further and hit 11.5% by the end of 2016.
35. 14.2%
16.8%
6.8%
20.0%
11.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Хөдөө аж ахуй Уул уурхай
Аж үйлдвэр Тээвэр харилцаа холбоо
Худалдаа Үйлчилгээ
Барилга, үл хөдлөх хөрөнгө
Agreculture
Manufacturing
Trade
Consruction, real estate
Mining
Transportation and telecom
Services
Industrial composition
Our economy is has been closely tied with certain industries, such as Agreculture, Mining
and Services, and those industries were dependent on natural and global market risks.
29
39. There are many challenges to our economy. Most of them were caused by decreased FDI, acute
budget deficit, dollarization, rise of non-performing loan, and slowdown of economy overall.
China’s economy is showing no sign of acceleration, therefore the mining commodity prices have a
very thin hope for recovery. Mathematical calculation shows that the downward trend of their price
will continue for another 10 months.
On the other hand, current account is projected positively, and surplus of the trade balance shall
stay around 6.5% of the GDP. Other corrections of twin deficit crisis should continue as well.
In the likely environment of the budget deficit under 4% of the GDP and GDP growth of no less than
3%, the inflow of foreign direct investment equal to 3.7% (or 7.1%) will push the currency rate down
by 20-40 tugriks (or by 60-90 tugriks).
If the non-performing loan problem gets out of the hand, 11.5 percent of all loan might be at risk. If
NPL ratios goes beyond 14.2%, the capital of the entire banking sector will become inadequate.
Structural risks, improper industrial composition and vulnerability due to over dependence is making
our economy unstable and exposed to short-term shocks.
Economic growth for the next year is predicted to be around 3.6% to 4.4%.
Conclusion
33