Guy Haselmann provides commentary on his transition to OpenDoor Trading and his views on U.S. Treasuries. He believes technical factors have dominated Treasury markets in recent years more than fundamentals. The bifurcation between on-the-run and off-the-run Treasuries is damaging price discovery. He expects long-dated Treasuries to hit new low yields sooner than expected due to factors like central bank bond buying programs and capital flows into positive-yielding U.S. debt. Haselmann also shares his views that the U.K. will remain in the EU after the upcoming referendum and that political fear may be trying to prevent setting a precedent for exiting the EU.
Dollar still gains despite geopolitics impacting markets once moreRichard Perry
We take a look at what is driving forex, equities and commodities markets this week. Moves on yield differentials and the US dollar are still key for market direction whilst geopolitical factors are once more impacting.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
FOMC meeting crucial for forex and commoditiesHantec Markets
After the huge swing in positioning for the Fed to turn dovish, this week's meeting of the FOMC will be crucial for the medium term outlook on financial markets. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Dollar still gains despite geopolitics impacting markets once moreRichard Perry
We take a look at what is driving forex, equities and commodities markets this week. Moves on yield differentials and the US dollar are still key for market direction whilst geopolitical factors are once more impacting.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
FOMC meeting crucial for forex and commoditiesHantec Markets
After the huge swing in positioning for the Fed to turn dovish, this week's meeting of the FOMC will be crucial for the medium term outlook on financial markets. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
Market fears remain, Brexit in focus stillHantec Markets
As markets have been gripped by increased fear we consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities this week. We also look at the latest developments in Brexit.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
UK assets have been given a significant shot in the arm as the General Election confounded all expectations of the pollsters and returned a Conservative majority government. Broadly speaking this was considered to be the best case scenario for traders and investors with the Tories considered to be the most pro-business, pro-market and pro-wealth creation.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
Market fears remain, Brexit in focus stillHantec Markets
As markets have been gripped by increased fear we consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities this week. We also look at the latest developments in Brexit.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
UK assets have been given a significant shot in the arm as the General Election confounded all expectations of the pollsters and returned a Conservative majority government. Broadly speaking this was considered to be the best case scenario for traders and investors with the Tories considered to be the most pro-business, pro-market and pro-wealth creation.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
We live in an interconnected world and geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Syria are bound to add volatility in global geopolitical environment and influence small and large economies around the world.
Further, the economic environment is undergoing an unusual shift, through unorthodox and new policy making in Japan, US and Europe.
In such a situation small sized GCC economies, which are also dependent heavily on commodity prices and transit of goods, should exercise caution, and not get swayed by the rosy pictures stock markets around the world are painting.
During the months following the global recession, many economists (including ones from this organisation) discussed the possibility of a double dip recession. Between the European debt crisis and the US’s high unemployment rate, it seemed likely that the global economy would slip back into recession territory. However, with the exception of the US, recent global economic performance has been better than expected. Fiscal and monetary policy in most countries remains supportive of growth and although another global slowdown looks inevitable, a relapse into recession is unlikely. The Economist Intelligence Unit explains the likelihood of a double dip recesssion in this presentation.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Will US stronger US relative economic performance continue? Hantec Markets
With the US Government shutdown coming to an end, delayed US data will begin to filter through and after the dovish shift from the Fed it will be interesting to see if US economic outperformance continues to show and how this impacts on the dollar. We look at the key factors impacting on forex, equities and commodities this week.
Arbuthnot Latham: Global Markets Report Q1 2019Siôn Puckle
Our report discusses general developments within global markets over the first quarter of 2019, with a focus on the issues influencing portfolios. Following an economic and market summary, we expand upon a number of themes before concluding with a review of the major asset classes.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Kitty Ussher speech on the economy 28th june 2016 to chartered institute of h...Kitty Ussher
Speech given by Kitty Ussher on 28th June, shortly following the Brexit vote in the UK. Speech by Kitty Ussher given to the Chartered Institute of Housing 100th anniversary conference in Manchester 28th June 2016. Kitty Ussher is the Managing Director of Tooley Street Research Ltd.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
Forward-thinking leaders and business managers understand the impact that discipline has on organisational success. A disciplined workforce operates with clarity, focus, and a shared understanding of expectations, ultimately driving better results, optimising productivity, and facilitating seamless collaboration.
Although discipline is not a one-size-fits-all approach, it can help create a work environment that encourages personal growth and accountability rather than solely relying on punitive measures.
In this deck, you will learn the significance of workplace discipline for organisational success. You’ll also learn
• Four (4) workplace discipline methods you should consider
• The best and most practical approach to implementing workplace discipline.
• Three (3) key tips to maintain a disciplined workplace.
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Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Lviv Startup Club
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to make small projects with small budgets profitable for the company (UA)
Kyiv PMDay 2024 Summer
Website – www.pmday.org
Youtube – https://www.youtube.com/startuplviv
FB – https://www.facebook.com/pmdayconference
VAT Registration Outlined In UAE: Benefits and Requirementsuae taxgpt
Vat Registration is a legal obligation for businesses meeting the threshold requirement, helping companies avoid fines and ramifications. Contact now!
https://viralsocialtrends.com/vat-registration-outlined-in-uae/
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024Lital Barkan
Have you ever heard that user-generated content or video testimonials can take your brand to the next level? We will explore how you can effectively use video testimonials to leverage and boost your sales, content strategy, and increase your CRM data.🤯
We will dig deeper into:
1. How to capture video testimonials that convert from your audience 🎥
2. How to leverage your testimonials to boost your sales 💲
3. How you can capture more CRM data to understand your audience better through video testimonials. 📊
RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
Grote partijen zijn al een tijdje onderweg met retail media. Ondertussen worden in dit domein ook de kansen zichtbaar voor andere spelers in de markt. Maar met die kansen ontstaan ook vragen: Zelf retail media worden of erop adverteren? In welke fase van de funnel past het en hoe integreer je het in een mediaplan? Wat is nu precies het verschil met marketplaces en Programmatic ads? In dit half uur beslechten we de dilemma's en krijg je antwoorden op wanneer het voor jou tijd is om de volgende stap te zetten.
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
"𝑩𝑬𝑮𝑼𝑵 𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑯 𝑻𝑱 𝑰𝑺 𝑯𝑨𝑳𝑭 𝑫𝑶𝑵𝑬"
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 (𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬) is a professional event agency that includes experts in the event-organizing market in Vietnam, Korea, and ASEAN countries. We provide unlimited types of events from Music concerts, Fan meetings, and Culture festivals to Corporate events, Internal company events, Golf tournaments, MICE events, and Exhibitions.
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 provides unlimited package services including such as Event organizing, Event planning, Event production, Manpower, PR marketing, Design 2D/3D, VIP protocols, Interpreter agency, etc.
Sports events - Golf competitions/billiards competitions/company sports events: dynamic and challenging
⭐ 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬:
➢ 2024 BAEKHYUN [Lonsdaleite] IN HO CHI MINH
➢ SUPER JUNIOR-L.S.S. THE SHOW : Th3ee Guys in HO CHI MINH
➢FreenBecky 1st Fan Meeting in Vietnam
➢CHILDREN ART EXHIBITION 2024: BEYOND BARRIERS
➢ WOW K-Music Festival 2023
➢ Winner [CROSS] Tour in HCM
➢ Super Show 9 in HCM with Super Junior
➢ HCMC - Gyeongsangbuk-do Culture and Tourism Festival
➢ Korean Vietnam Partnership - Fair with LG
➢ Korean President visits Samsung Electronics R&D Center
➢ Vietnam Food Expo with Lotte Wellfood
"𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲, 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲. 𝐖𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬."
1. Guy Haselmann
Managing Director
OpenDoor Trading
(908)-377-4966
Note: 1
Date: 6/13/16
The views expressed herein are strictly
those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect those of OpenDoor Trading.
Global Macro
Commentary
As I resume my market commentary, my intention is to provide content that is similar to my prior work. Before I begin
however, I thought it prudent to make a statement about my recent transition to OpenDoor Trading (ODT). Simply
stated, Scotiabank is a world class firm with many truly outstanding people. However, ODT presented me with an
exciting opportunity to join a firm with a brilliant and timely product that provides a solution to liquidity problems in
off-the-run Treasuries and TIPS.
Unloved Treasuries
• The basic arguments behind my aggressive bullish stance on US Treasuries (USTs) over the past few years overlaps
nicely with the guiding principles that has driven ODT to emerge with such promise. The Treasury trading
ecosystem has materially mutated due to factors such as regulation, globalization, demographics, and geo-politics.
• In such, USTs in recent years have been driven more by technical factors than by fundamental factors. Too many
have missed this fact. On several occasions, I have gone into detail on many of those factors, but a brief summary
of them can be found in my January 4th
note, “The Bond Awakens” (here). Add the fact that Global central bank
QE programs are designed to unhinge asset prices from their fundamental value and it is not hard to see why the
technicals dominate.
• The changing landscape has fueled a bifurcated market between on-the run (OTR) and off-the runs (OFTR)
Treasuries. The six OTR issues represent less than 2% of all issues, yet account for 68% of daily volume. Susan
Estes, the CEO of ODT, has written about this dynamic in a two-part series (here and here). This bifurcation is
damaging price discovery in the Treasury market and negatively impacting trading decisions.
• One of the main reasons for this is the fact that the Treasury market has more than doubled since 2007 at the same
time that there are fewer primary dealers and a regulatory-induced weaker ability to warehouse securities.
• Many have also begun to warn about Treasury market dangers due to market valuations. These warnings rarely
include well-thought out reasons, but are based mainly on the sticker shock of exceptionally low yields. They also
include fears of inflations, but maybe CB’s can only produce asset price inflation and hyperinflation (e.g.,
Venezuela), and not a targeted amount of inflation (i.e., near 2%).
• I concur that the $10 trillion+ of global sovereign and corporate bonds trading at negative yields are an
unsustainable paradigm. Yet, the longer foreign central banks are able to maintain such low yields, the more
capital that will likely flow into positive yielding US Treasuries. When a sell-off in negative yielding bonds does
occur, USTs will be dragged lower, but should outperform due to the technicals I referenced. Either way, spreads
will narrow from outperforming USTs (e.g.; Bund-US spread sub 100, Spain-US spread from -6 to +100+) .
• The market has priced-out the Fed for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Yet, if the Fed were truly ‘data dependent’ it
would hike rates, since their duel mandates have been achieved. The unemployment rate is 4.7%, and core CPI
above 2%. Wage pressures and consumer spending are rising, and unemployment claims are low and steady. Many
have argued that UST’s will sell off if the Fed tightens this week, or if the UK votes next week to remain in the EU.
I disagree. If the Fed hikes rates, the yield curve will flatten and more buyers will storm into the back end. In
addition, the UK vote seems to have a positive asymmetric risk profile benefiting USTs.
• I have never understood why the UK ‘remain camp’ tactics were based on fear. If the merits and benefits of
remaining in the EU were so compelling, then shouldn’t those benefits have been emphasized instead? After all,
the UK has had a proud history for many centuries; therefore, I bet few people have much fear of going it alone. In
the end, the UK will figure it all out and adjust accordingly should they vote to leave.
• Political fear might really be about trying to prevent a precedence for an exit from the EU. In a sense, the EU has
already experienced ‘quasi-exits’ with the election of anti-EU parties in Poland and Hungary, and the gaining
popularity of fringe parties in many other countries.
• The electorate are clearly unhappy in the EU (and US). The lack of EU coordination on such issues as refugees,
banking deposit insurance, or various fiscal measures, shows more disunity than unity. Therefore, it is hard for the
UK voter to know what ‘union’ they are actually voting to be a part of.
2. Note: 1
Date: 6/13/16
The views expressed herein are strictly
those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect those of OpenDoor Trading.
• In summary, I caution disliking Treasuries due to low yields without understanding the driving technical factors.
Rather than expecting a steep and quick rise in UST yields the way many are vocally calling for, I believe the
opposite is more likely.
• Those who are skeptical about a sharp drop in yield from these levels should look at this year’s chart of the
Japanese 30-year bond. It was yielding 1.20% at the end of January and fell around 80 basis points within 2
months. It now yields 0.22%. The Fed is no longer doing QE like the BoJ, but as mentioned there are various
compelling factors driving yields lower. I still expect long-dated Treasuries to hit all-time low yields sooner than
expected.
• “Talk about your plenty, talk about your ills, one man gathers, what another man spills.” –Grateful Dead