More Related Content Similar to The End of Travel And The Rise of Smart Mobility Era, Part 1 (20) The End of Travel And The Rise of Smart Mobility Era, Part 11. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
The end of Travel as we knew it,
and the rise of smart mobility era
William El Kaim – March 2015
1
2. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Plan
• The travel industry’s growth is correlated to GDP
• A new urbanized and connected world
• 21st Century Is The Era Of Cities
• Conquering the last mile
• Smart mobility providers for crowded cities
• The rise of smart mobility aggregators
• The start of a mobility era
2
7. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
In 2013 The Combined GDP Of Poor Nations Became Greater Than The
Rich Ones
7
8. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
GDP Forecast
http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/
world_economies_gdp/
8
9. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
World GDP Economic Centre Of Gravity Move To The East and To The South
9
10. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
The Travel Industry’s Growth Is Correlated To GDP
• If world GDP increases by 1%,
then air traffic generally
increase by 1.3%.
• It is estimated that the price
elasticity of passenger air
traffic is around -0.6 at world
level; that means that if the
average ticket price decreases
by 1% then air traffic to
increase by 0.6%
10
11. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Travel Industry Growth
• The travel industry would grow 5.4%
per annum for the next 10 years,
outstripping global GDP.
• By 2023 the total share of global
outbound expenditure is predicted to
reach 20%, up from 1% in 2005.
• Elsewhere, Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey
and Indonesia were cited as the
markets with the biggest potential for
growth.
• Chinese travelers to U.S. will rise about
140% in next 4-5 years, India 54%,
Colombia 56%, Brazil 50%!
11
15. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
World Urban Population
Source: UN Population Division,
Airbus
15
19. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Rise of Megacities
While the world total population will increase from 7 to 8.3 billion
people in 2030, the urbanization growth rate is expected to be 2 %
per year, representing 60 % of the world population or 5 billion
people in 2030
19
20. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
The Global South’s Rising Megacities: A Challenge to Urban Living
http://www.southerninnovator.org/
20
24. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Airport Growth Is Correlated To Population Growth
• “If the 20th Century Was The Era Of Nations, The 21st Century Is The Era Of
Cities” Lee Myungbak, former President of the Republic of Korea.
• As the world becomes more crowded, so do airports.
• ACI estimates that by 2020 there will be 7 billion passengers arriving and departing
through the world's airports. That's the entirety of today's world population.
• Airports will be under enormous pressure to accommodate growth.
• Airports have evolved as drivers of business location and urban
development in the 21st century
• In the same way as did highways in the 20th century, railroads in the 19th century
and seaports in the 18th century.
• At the largest international airports passenger terminals are morphing into
luxury shopping malls and artistic and recreational venues, as well as locations
to exchange knowledge and conduct business.
24
25. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Aetropolis Origin
Aetropolis was first
proposed by New York
commercial artist
Nicholas DeSantis,
presented in the
November 1939 issue
of Popular Science:
Skyscraper Airport for
City of Tomorrow
25
26. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Aetropolis Vision by D. Kasarda
The term was revived and
substantially extended by
academic and air commerce
expert Dr. John D. Kasarda in 2000
• As economies become
increasingly globalized and
dependent on electronic
commerce, air commerce, and
the speed and agility it provides
to the movement of people and
goods, has become its
logistical backbone.
26
27. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Aerotropolis vs. Airport City (Wikipedia)
• Aerotropolis
• Airport integrated urban economic region
• An urban plan in which the layout, infrastructure, and economy is centered around an
airport, existing as an airport city.
• It is similar in form and function to a traditional metropolis, which contains a central city
core and its commuter-linked suburbs.
• Airport city: business or tourism destination in its own right.
• is a term for an "inside the fence" airport area including the airport (terminals, apron,
and runways) and on-airport businesses such as air cargo, logistics, offices, retail, hotels
and even entertainment and theme parks
• Total Airports revenues target from non-aeronautical = 40–60%.
27
28. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015 AETROPOLIS
The airport city is at
the core of
the aerotropolis
AIRPORT
CITY
28
29. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Kasarda's Aerotropolis Concept in Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy3OSm1w-jY 29
31. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Panatropolis – Global Hub of the new World
http://panatropolis.com/ 31
32. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Airport City Denver
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A-xCGyyJms 32
33. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Airport City Manchester
http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=Dhg5RVBidLk&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EF 33
34. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Chopin Airport City - Poland
http://www.chopinairportcity.pl/en
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stOugdnJa_8&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EF
34
36. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Smart City
• Urbanization creating massive and rapid pressure on mass transit systems
• 80% of the world’s population will be living in cities by 2050.
• A growing urban middle class also creates challenges.
• Increasingly sophisticated, and web-connected consumers demand a better customer
experience in mobility.
• Proliferation of sensors
• Smartphones not only create the opportunity to provide services to users, but they are
also sensors in their own right and hence rich sources of data.
• Sensors are being installed in city to get a more precise vision of its “context”
• The need for new business model
• Just as contextual mobility creates the opportunity for a better passenger experience and
faster passenger flow, it also creates the opportunity for transport service providers to
market additional services
36
37. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Smart City
• The concept of 'smarter cities'
originated in 2008, by IBM as part of
its Smarter Planet initiative.
• A Smart City should have at least
five out of the eight “smart”
parameters listed by Frost &
Sullivan.
37
40. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Re-programming Mobility
• In lieu of large civil infrastructure projects, transportation systems are increasingly being
augmented with a range of information technologies that make them smarter, safer, more
efficient, more integrated.
• Transformation is now being driven by the private sector.
• Companies are investing in infrastructure for mobility on a similar scale, but using very different
technology.
• All but invisible to planners and citizens alike, new communications network are becoming
the most important transportation infrastructure of our era, enabling us to re-invent the how
our roads, transit systems, and freight and logistics networks function.
• The hidden nature of these new mobility infrastructures – tiny devices in our pockets
communicating over invisible radio waves with algorithms running on servers in the cloud –
has conspired to conceal the important public policy and planning issues that their mass
adoption raises.
Source: RE-PROGRAMMING MOBILITY, The Digital Transformation of Transportation in the United States, Dr. Anthony Townsend, Senior Research
Scientist; Rudin Center for Transportation Policy & Management
40
41. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
NYC Bus Performance
http://bustime.mta.info/wiki/Developers/Index
http://nathan9.github.io/nycbusperformance/ 41
42. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
The End of Travel as We knew it!
• End of travel era and the beginning of the Mobility era
• People will be “mobile” and Connected all the time (domestic)
• People will leverage their context (“network”) as much as possible – social, geographical,
financial, health …
• People will travel virtually to meet and work with people abroad without risks at low cost
• Impacts
• Travel will be not be seen anymore as station to station (origin & destination, peer to peer, etc.),
or as a Tx or PNR.
• The Itinerary will no more a sheet of paper you will print out, but a living data aggregation piece.
• The future
• Moving towards integrated mobility with a number of new mobility suppliers, and disruptive
digital business models.
• The "omnia illico" era (Everything Now !).
42
44. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Mobility Player: Leap Transit
http://leaptransit.com/site.php 44
45. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Mobility Player: Leap Transit
http://leaptransit.com/site.php 45
49. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Transdev
http://www.transdev.com/en/multi-modal-offer/transport-modes/ 49
50. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Xerox Transportation
http://www.services.xerox.com/transportation-solutions/enus.html 50
51. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
The Future Of Transport Is About Sharing
The 20 largest bicycle sharing systems in the world. Three are in Europe (Paris,
London, Barcelona), two are in North America (New York and Toronto), the other
15 are in China. Data: Earth Policy Institute, 2013!
Source UrbanTimes 51
52. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Audi UNITE
• Unite, a car-sharing pilot program (currently only available in Stockholm).
• The program allows up to five people to share “ownership” of an Audi via a
smartphone scheduling app, which allows all owners to reserve the vehicle,
see the car’s location and even check fuel levels.
• Aside from the app, owners receive a beacon to attach to their key ring, which
electronically tracks personal usage.
https://www.audiunite.com/se/service/en_unite.html
52
54. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Local Motion: Sharing Company Cars
54https://www.getlocalmotion.com/
58. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Smart Scooter
Smart, the Daimler brand that makes the ultra-compact
Smart Car, announced its 5.4-horsepower Smart Scooter
Use your iPhone as the console
58
59. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Wattmobile : Electric Vehicle at French Railway Stations
59
61. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Urban Transport Pods
• Human operator interacts
with the pod using a
touchscreen in the
windshield.
• Swipe to select a
destination, and use the
built-in wireless hotspot to
connect your gadgets.
• The pod operates on its
own, showing its current
route.
Already being used in
Masdar City in Abu
Dhabi and at the
London Heathrow
airport, but both are
used in tightly
controlled areas.
LUTZ is a system of
driverless cars, or
pods, that will be
deployed in Milton
Keynes, a town
northeast of London
Video
61
62. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Hitachi's ROPITS tablet-controlled, self-driving urban vehicle
62
64. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
The rise of smart mobility aggregators
• Market will see new players termed Mobility Aggregator (MA) emerged
• Entity which offers a selection of mobility services as core business either as standalone providers
or through partnerships. Source: Frost and Sullivan
64
65. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
NS Business Card
• 5% of business travelers use the train, while 95% use other modes of
transportation, mainly cars, thereby opening up a number of avenues for
NS to innovate.
• The transit payment system that the NS Business Card employed on a
national level, focuses on flexible post-paid payments rather than on a pre-
paid system
http://www.ns.nl/en/business/products/the-new-ns-business-
card.html
65
66. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Daimler Mobility Services Moovel
https://www.moovel.com/
GottaPark
66
68. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Mobility Aggregators - Europe Examples …
Source: Frost and Sullivan 68
73. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Welcome To The Mobility Era
Mobility is about seamless
travel using all of the
various modes of
transportation available
rather than relying solely on
one transportation mode.
Source: Frost and Sullivan
73
74. Copyright © William El Kaim 2015
Welcome To The Mobility Era
74
Source: The Future of Urban Mobility 2.0
75. Copyright © William El Kaim 2014
Key Resources
• Mobility Practice from Frost & Sullivan’s
• Future of Mobility: New Business Models,
Opportunities, and Market Entrants in Mobility
Integration (slideshare) - video teaser (youtube)
• The Future of Urban Mobility 2.0, Arthur D.
Little
• Connected World – Transforming Travel,
Transportation and Supply Chains, World
Economic Forum.
• The smart mobility management review.
• Re-programming Mobility: The Digital
Transformation of Transportation in the
United States
Claudine O'Sullivan
http://www.claudineosullivan.com/
Email : info@claudineosullivan.com
75
William(at)el-kaim(point)com
+33 6 41 73 00 34
http://fr.linkedin.com/in/williamelkaim
http://www.twitter.com/welkaim
http://www.slideshare.net/welkaim