7. https://observablehq.com/@geopoliticsasia/covid-19-in-thailand (Javascript D3.js; manual data retrieval), Problem Structuring
exponential
take-off
peak
The Future Cone
His face is turned toward
the past.
The moonwalk trajectory
Problem Structuring
Phase I Phase II Phase III
• การวิเคราะห์ของมนุษย์มีอคติทำให้เกิดความผิดพลาด เพราะเป็นการตัดสินจากประสบการณ์ในอดีต มากกว่าการคาดการณ์ความเปลี่ยนแปลงใหม่ในอนาคต
10. การมาถึงของเอกปจิยสภาวะ (Singularity)
• การเปลี่ยนแปลงอย่างถึงรากที่ส่งผลถึงมูลฐานจากปัจจัยเพียงประการเดียว คือการทวีคูณของ
ประสิทธิภาพของคอมพิวเตอร์เป็นสองเท่าทุก ๆ สิบแปดเดือน ภายใต้บริบทดังต่อไปนี้:
• การเปลี่ยนแปลงจากกระบวนทัศน์ของคอมพิวเตอร์แบบเครื่องจักรแบบวอน นิวแมน ไปสู่เครื่องจักร
แบบ Neuromorphic (จากโครงการ BRAIN Initiative) และการเข้าสู่ fault-tolerant quantum
computer era
• การเปลี่ยนกระบวนทัศน์การวิจัยวิทยาศาสตร์จาก empirical based ไปสู่ computer modeling
+ big data = eScience และการแพร่กระจายไปสู่ทั้งวิทยาศาสตร์ธรรมชาติและวิทยาศาสตร์สังคม
(NGS2 และ GT ของ DARPA) ในแง่ Biotech คือการเปลี่ยนจาก in-vivo & in-vitro -> in-silico
• อรุณรุ่งของอุตสาหกรรมแบบ MBNRIC (Med-Bio-Nano-Robo-Info-Cognitive) ดูการเสริมแรง
จากปริมาณการลงทุนและผลการวิจัยใน Biotech
• เหตุการณ์ที่คอมพิวเตอร์สามารถเอาชนะมนุษย์ทั้งในเชิง optimality และความคิดสร้างสรรค์ เมื่อ
เทียบกับสติปัญญารวมหมู่ของมนุษย์ทั้งมวลบนผืนพิภพ
• มนุษย์จำเป็นจะต้องเปลี่ยนแปลงเพื่อผสานกับคอมพิวเตอร์ (H+ หรือ Transhumanism) ต่อไปจะ
เป็นยุค post-antropocene
• มองในแง่นี้วิธีคิดแบบ Industry 4.0 และ Thailand 4.0 จึงค่อนข้างฉาบฉวย
• ระบบเงินตราและระบบเศรษฐกิจแบบเดิมไม่สามารถรองรับการเปลี่ยนแปลงครั้งใหม่นี้ได้อีก
ตัวอย่างเช่น แอปเปิล ไมโครซอฟต์ อเมซอน อัลฟาเบต และเฟสบุ๊ค ล้วนมีมูลค่าระดับ Trillion
“The coming technological singularity: How to survive in the post-human era”
by Verner Vinge
in the symposium “Vision 21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the
Era of Cyberspace” held at Holiday Inn in Westlake, Ohio on March 30-31,
1993, (also featured “S-curve”)
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19940022855
11. “In an analysis by computational neuroscientist Anders Sandberg, the
computational capacity of an Earth-size computational “object” called Zeus was
reviewed. Three types of intelligence superobject: ‘Jupiter brain’ (Zeus for
Earth-size, 1049 OpS), ‘Dyson brain’ (Uranos for Solar system-size, 1051 OpS)
and ‘Neutronium brain’ (Chronos from globular cluster, 1085 OpS)”
http://www.jetpress.org/volume5/Brains2.pdf
16. } intermediate cycle = simple buy/sell signal = MACD
Tesla bought USD 1.5 Billion Bitcoin at
around USD 32,000 per Bitcoin
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337v
Buy
Sell
22. https://www.bybt.com/LiquidationData
Over the past 24 hours, a total of 375.15 million worth of leveraged trading positions was forcibly liquidated. Unsurprisingly, 88.85% of them were long, meaning
that those traders were betting on the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos to go up—but it looks like the market had other ideas.
https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-dogecoin-all-coins-fall-amid-crypto-market-pullback/
การล้างพอร์ตของรายย่อยเกิดกับพอร์ตลองมากกว่าชอร์ต
23. • Ark Invest's Cathie Wood has said bitcoin could become a central part of investors' portfolios as it becomes a
"better accepted new asset class", leading to a 60-20-20 split between stocks, bonds, and the cryptocurrency. The
Ark boss predicted bitcoin would stabilize and become a more widely accepted asset. "We are seeing institutional
movement into the space, and we're seeing the diversification of balance sheets from cash into bitcoin.”
• Goldman Sachs said a survey of 300 clients found that 40% had exposure to crypto, while bitcoin-services provider
NYDIG announced on Monday that it had raised $200 million from Wall Street names including Morgan Stanley.
• Wood told CNBC that she thought bitcoin would start to behave "more like the fixed-income markets, believe it or
not."
• She said the historic fall in bond yields seen in recent years makes the idea of a portfolio with 60% stocks and 40%
bonds "problematic."
• "We've been through a 40 year bull market in bonds. We would not be surprised to see [bitcoin] become a part of
those percentages." She suggested investors could start to put 20% in bonds and 20% in bitcoin.
• https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/cathie-wood-bitcoin-btc-investor-portfolios-institutional-
tesla-tsla-2021-3
แคธี วู้ด ระบุ MPT บนพื้นฐาน 60-40 มีปัญหา
24. • SkyBridge Capital’s co-chief investment officer Troy Gayeski predicts that Bitcoin will
go through a supply-side crisis similar to what happened last year when BTC kicked
off its bull market.
• And since then, we’ve rotated a small amount of the capital into Ethereum. We view
the market pretty straightforward as: Bitcoin will be the market leader in terms of store
of value and Ethereum, at least so far, is the market leader in terms of transaction use.
So, we have a little diversification there. All in all, we have a 9% position size.”
• “So for us basically, what we did is we trimmed the position in order to keep it from
going further, and our portfolios at the end the March, we had more outflows than
inflows.”
• https://dailyhodl.com/2021/07/14/bitcoin-supply-shock-incoming-according-to-
skybridge-capitals-troy-gayeski/
กองทุนสกายบริดจ์มีคริปโตอยู่ในพอร์ต 9%
25. • “We broke out in January. A few months ago, we made this peak. I actually would go back and put the
retracement levels on top of bitcoin, and when you see that, you can see that around 33,000 to 34,000 is a
very important retracement level,” Johnson told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday, referring to
Fibonacci retracement in technical analysis that marks key support and resistance levels.
• Bitcoin has bounced between $31,500 and $34,800 for roughly two weeks. Johnson says that based on its
history bitcoin is unlikely to drop much further. However, he does see a prolonged period of consolidation.
• “You’ve already seen bitcoin correct about 45%. When you go back to the last two prior cycles, those
crypto cycles lasted about 1,000 days,” he said. “You’ve got to be prepared to batten down the hatches
and kind of wait for this to consolidate for quite some time longer before you start the next big major leg
higher.”
• “Give me $25,000 on bitcoin, and I’d be buying more,” Baruch said during the same segment.
• “I’ve been in the space since 2017. There’s times where I’m in it, there’s times when I’m not, I totally exited
through early this year,” he said.
• https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/as-bitcoin-breaks-down-two-traders-share-key-levels-to-watch.html
แนวรับของรายใหญ่
26. Bakry,Walid,AudilRashid, Somar Al-Mohamad, and Nasser El-Kanj. 2021. Bitcoin and Portfolio Diversification: A Portfolio Optimization
Approach. Journal of RiskandFinancialManagement14: 282. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070282
28. • The results suggest that Bitcoin has some potential to act as a diversifier because in almost all the portfolio optimization frameworks, the
performance attributes of the portfolios with Bitcoin were considerably higher compared to portfolios without Bitcoin. It must also be
pointed out that the allocation to Bitcoin in most of the unconstrained or semi-constrained frameworks was minimal. It may, therefore, be
concluded that because Bitcoin witnesses heavy price fluctuations, investors must exercise caution and limit their exposure to Bitcoin, as
excess exposure to Bitcoin may not essentially lead to improvement in portfolio performance attributes. Moreover, the results also
indicate that adding Bitcoin to a portfolio increases the conditional value at risk during extreme market conditions.
• Against this backdrop, certainly, empirical evidence suggests that Bitcoin has been (until now) immune to economic and financial
downturns, stock market downturns (Dyhrberg 2016b), and ill-conceived and ill-implemented monetary policy developments such as
those of the Venezuelan government and the Indian demonetization experiment (Luther and Salter 2017; Bouoiyour and Selmi 2017;
Selmi et al. 2018). However, although our results support the hypothesis that Bitcoin can play a significant role in portfolio diversification
and investment management, it would be going too far to assert that Bitcoin can serve as an alternative asset due to its random spikes
and movement in prices. Bitcoin’s price volatility is likely to be due to the lack of interest from the institutional investors who still consider
Bitcoin a speculative asset and its price formation as a bubble fueled by young, inexperienced individual investors as well as being due
to various legal, taxation, or accounting problems associated with cryptocurrency (Bouri et al. 2019; Tan and Low 2017). As such,
considerably more evidence in Bitcoin’s favor is required before we can expect Bitcoin to be considered an alternative asset to
commodities or gold.
• That said, it will certainly be interesting to see how Bitcoin price development evolves as the legal, regulatory, and accounting guidelines
with regard to it change. In addition, with the recent introduction of Bitcoin futures, the emergence of a strong altcoin market, and other
developments (among them, uncertainty around the acceptance of Bitcoin on various platforms, such as, Elon Musk’s investment and
commitment to accepting Bitcoin as a mode of payment and subsequent backtracking for environmental concerns, the crackdown on
Bitcoin mining in China, etc.), it will be interesting to see whether significant economic, fiscal, and financial downturns such as those
witnessed in recent periods will still render Bitcoin as a diversifier, hedge, or safe haven.
บิตคอยน์มีศักยภาพเป็นสินทรัพย์กระจายความเสี่ยง แต่...
Bakry,Walid,AudilRashid, Somar Al-Mohamad, and Nasser El-Kanj. 2021. Bitcoin and Portfolio Diversification: A Portfolio Optimization
Approach. Journal of RiskandFinancialManagement14: 282. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070282
29. • Identifying and measuring systematic risk is not only an important issue for pension funds and other institutional investors, but
also is a central concern of policymakers. The recent financial crisis shows that governments, and indeed most economists
(including financial economists), did not have a clear understanding of the extent and magnitude of systematic risk. The basic
requirement to reduce the risks of financial crises is the ability to define and measure those risks explicitly (Lo 2009). It is not
possible, at least at a low cost, for an institutional investor to identify and assess different components of systematic risk because
to do so the investor needs to be able to gather and process data about security positions of all market participants, in addition to
their leverage, interdependencies and liquidity in close to real time. Also given the complexity of the global financial market, its
interrelatedness and also the lack of an authority that oblige all market participants to reveal all their information, it is impossible
even for governments to establish such an organization.
• Therefore even within the MPT framework, ignoring its deficiencies outlined in previous sections, having an accurate and more or
less real-time grasp of correlations among different securities and the magnitude and impact of systematic risk is not conceivable.
This problem is magnified by the interdependencies unwittingly caused by the widespread adoption of MPT and subsequent
developments in risk management techniques. These increased interdependencies prior to significant market-wide crises have
increased asset correlations significantly, both within and across asset classes due to the very methods of risk management itself.
• This problem is illustrated when commenting on the financial crisis Harry Markowitz said, ‘Diversifying sufficiently among
uncorrelated risks can reduce portfolio risk toward zero. But financial engineers should know that’s not true of correlated
risks’ (Crovitz 2008). Markowitz did not address why he thinks that correlated risks across or within asset classes have become so
important. Before the financial crisis Myron Sholes commented: ‘Models fail because they fail to incorporate the inter-relationships
that exists in the real world.’
• https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/20430795.2012.738600
LTCM พิสูจน์ว่า MPT ไม่ครอบคลุมความเสี่ยงเชิงระบบ
40. The logistic estimated coefficients for these variables have the expected sign. Changes in real exchange rate, gross domestic savings,
government revenue and corruption index have a significant positive impact on ratings. Note that the coefficient of the corruption index
is positive since the highest note (10) is attributed to uncorrupted countries. Moreover, this index is also a good proxy for the quality of
governance. These findings corroborate the idea that developed and more competitive countries have higher ratings, in general, than
developing countries. Negative effect on ratings is produced by inflation (consumer prices), trade dependency and external debt. This
effect reflects the fact that countries with lower levels of foreign debt and low inflation are less likely to default, and get a better rating.
The results underpin the strong influence of the default history of sovereign borrowers over rating agencies’ decisions. The coefficient of
the dummy variable is high and statistically different from zero. This means that countries that have defaulted once on their official debt
are rated, on average, 1.4 notches below countries with good track records.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470500377406?scroll=top&needAccess=true&journalCode=rejf20
ปัจจัยการกําหนดเครดิตเรตติ้ง
47. China has its own “digital Yuan” project aiming to
replace M0, based on either Ethereum or Libra’s
Diem, rebuild alternative trade settlement system
apart of SWIFT and for KYC/CFT/AML. This kind of
regulatory measure in China is, however, not the first
time. Please note that China’s Yuan has been
manipulated, “Treasury said that the bilateral
imbalances were in part caused by China’s distortive
economic and trade policies, which limit foreign
investment and imports.” According to Time, “In
China’s impoverished central province of Ningxia, for
example, subsidized power supplies designated for
locals to process Goji berries as part of poverty
alleviation efforts have been covertly syphoned off for
bitcoin mining” (sig).
การใช้ดิจิทัลหยวน
48. ประวัติของเงินคริปโต
• David Chaum เผยแพร่เปเปอร์ Untraceable Electronic Mail, Return
Addresses, and Digital Pseudonyms ในปี คศ 1981
• Satoshi Nakamoto ออกไวท์เปเปอร์บิตคอยน์ เมื่อวันที่ 18 สิงหาคม คศ 2008
โดยอ้างอิงถึงการแก้ปัญหาไบแซนไทน์ (การหาฉันทมติการแก้ปัญหาในระบบ)
• การเข้ารหัสสืบทอดย้อนไปในอดีตอันยาวไกล แต่ที่สำคัญคือการถอดรหัสเครื่องอี
นิกมาของนาซีเยอรมัน โดย Hut 8 & Hut 4 (โดย อลัน ทัวริ่ง) และการถอดรหัส
เครื่องลอเรนซ์โดย Hut 6 & Hut 3
• นอกจากนี้ยังมีความเกี่ยวข้องกับวัฒนธรรมไซเบอร์พังค์และสงครามคริปโตเพื่อ
ต่อต้านการห้ามส่งออกเทคโนโลยีการเข้ารหัสของรัฐบาลสหรัฐฯ ในช่วงทศวรรษ
1980
• มีความเกี่ยวข้องกับจุดกำเนิดวิธีคิดแบบวัฒนธรรมความเป็นส่วนตัวและการทำ
สัญญาล่วงหน้าแบบพวกพิลกริมที่นั่งเรือเมย์ฟลาวเวอร์ตั้งอาณานิคมพลีมัธ พบ
อย่างเข้มข้นในสำนักคิดอิสรชนนิยม (libertarian)
49. Behind the curtain: The illicit trade of firearms,
explosives and ammunition on the dark web
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/
318570855_Behind_the_curtain_The_illicit_trade_of_fire
arms_explosives_and_ammunition_on_the_dark_web
The dark web is an enabler for the circulation of illegal weapons
already on the black market, as well as a potential source of
diversion for legally owned weapons.Although the arms trade is
small in volume compared to other products trafficked online, its
potential impact on international security is significant.
https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/international-
arms-trade-on-the-hidden-web.html