Heartland Ag Group, Sikich, Advantage Capital, The Climate Corp presented in Decatur and Springfield Illinois to give an update on where agribusiness was in 2014 and where it is going for 2015
2. Agenda
3:45 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. Welcome Time & Registration
4:00 p.m. – 4:10 p.m. Sikich LLP
» Introduction
4:10 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. Dale Aupperle, President, Heartland Ag Group Ltd.
» Current Issues in Agriculture – Leases and Land Values
4:30 p.m. – 5:10 p.m. Anthony Metzner, Vice President, Advantage Capital Partners
Timothy Hassler, Principal, Advantage Capital Partners
» Investing in the Future of Agribusiness
5:10 p.m. – 5:25 p.m. Break
5:25 p.m. – 6:05 p.m. Nick Braden, Regional Sales Manager, Climate Corporation
» Using Precision Ag for Field and Yield Insights
6:05 p.m. – 6:25 p.m. Tom Bayer, Partner-in-Charge, Agriculture Services, Sikich LLP
» Current Issues in Agriculture – Tax Update
6:25 p.m. – 6:30 p.m. Q & A
Join us for cocktails and hors d'oeuvres following the seminar.
3. Riding the
Agricultural Super Cycle!!
December 4, 2014
By:
Dale E. Aupperle, AFM, ARA
President- Heartland Ag Group Ltd.
1401 Koester Drive, Suite 100
Forsyth, IL 62535
******
Phone: (217) 876-7700
Fax: (217) 876-7724
E-mail: dale@heartlandaggroup.com
Web: www.heartlandaggroup.com
Sikich Agribusiness Seminar
4.
5. Current Ag Trends
Note some of the following general observations regarding
agricultural conditions throughout our respective agricultural
areas:
Declining Grain Prices
Expensive Farm Inputs
Squishy Farmland Values
Ongoing Weather Concerns
Planted Acreage Shifts
Cash Rent Concerns
Technology Advancements
Uncertain Global Demand
Crop Insurance Safety Net
Increased Sensitivity to Farming Risk
Relatively Low Interest Rates
Outside Capital on Sidelines
Larger Farming Units
More Absentee Ownership
Threat of Inflation/Deflation
Global Financial Quagmire
Uncertain Ethanol Prospects
Fear of the Future
6. Thoughts on a Sunday Evening
All of us gather our thoughts - - and keep our eye
on the ball in different ways. Here is a collection
of charts I look at every Sunday evening - - the big
picture is wonderful!
7.
8. As of December 4, 2014
13 Year Uptrend Broken
Correction Over?
16. 2014
Illinois Farmland Values
& Lease Trends
▼ 19th Annual Report
▼ Covers Calendar Year 2013
▼ Lots of Farm Real Estate Transactions
▼ Updates on Rents & Leasing Trends
▼ A Team of Over 70 Professionals
- Professional Farm Managers
- Accredited & State Certified Appraisers
- Licensed Farmland Brokers
www.ispfmra.org
17. All Categories of Farmland
The Great State of Illinois
These (rounded) figures are the average as reported by each region
on the categories shown.
Excellent Good Average Fair Recreational Transitional
Region 1 $12,700 $9,100 $9,300 - - $6,000 $25,400
Region 2 $12,900 $10,000 $7,100 $5,900 $4,300 $17,500
Region 3 $13,600 $9,500 $6,900 - - $3,400 - -
Region 4 $12,300 $9,500 $7,600 $8,700 $4,500 $25,000
Region 5 $11,500 $9,100 $7,000 $4,400 $3,100 $7,500
Region 6 $12,600 $9,900 $8,100 $7,200 $2,900 - -
Region 7 $12,900 $10,000 $6,800 - - $3,300 $37,600
Region 8 - - $10,300 $9,200 $7,500 $3,900 $10,100
Region 9 - - $9,400 $7,900 $5,900 $3,000 $16,300
Region 10 - - $10,000 $5,600 $4,200 $2,700 - -
Average $12,600 $9,700 $7,500 $5,850 $3,700 $19,900
Averages are dangerous - - but they give us a snapshot of
each category (for comparison).
18.
19. Buyers and Sellers
• Buyers: Local farmers 64%, Local investors 14%,
Non-local investors 9%
• Sellers: Estate sales 52%, Individual investors,
14%, Retired farmers 11%
• Reasons for Selling: Settle estates 50%,
Received a good price 22%
20. Comparing Farmland to other
Financial Assets
Here is a quick comparison of how farmland compares in its overall return - -
it’s the best!
Asset/Index
1970 – 2010
Average
Annual Return
1990 – 2010
Average
Annual Return
Farmland 10.77% 10.80%
Mtg./REITS 9.09% 9.49%
Aaa (Bonds) 8.24% 6.85%
10 yr Treasury 7.20% 5.45%
Dow Jones 6.52% 6.84%
S & P 500 6.24% 5.75%
CPI 4.29% 2.63%
PPI 4.03% 2.47%
CRB Spot Index 3.25% 2.40%
Note – From Bruce J. Sherrick, PhD at the University of Illinois.
21.
22. Uptrend Interruptions
In the last four decades the Illinois farmland uptrend was
interrupted on three occasions:
Years 2008 – 2009 Sideways for a year - - after
doubling in value from 2001.
Years 1998 – 2001 A 15% correction - - after an
eleven year uptrend from 1997
with farmland values rising by
92%
Years 1980 – 1987 A 50% correction - - after
farmland values advanced nearly
500% from 1982. This one was a
bubble.
In summary – Perhaps history gives us some guidelines for our
current thought processes. It doesn’t look like a bubble to us!
23.
24.
25. 2013/14 Illinois Farmland Sales
Here are several representative top quality land sales that have occurred throughout
the central part of the state during year 2013 and into 2014 (to date):
2013
County Date Acres
Price
Per Acre
DeWitt Apr 2013 66.50 $13,600
Shelby May 2013 134.00 $13,150
Moultrie Jun 2013 160.35 $12,473
Christian Jun 2013 120.00 $15,300
Piatt Jul 2013 281.35 $13,050
Macon Aug 2013 160.17 $13,000
Douglas Nov 2013 960.00 $14,583
Logan Nov 2013 80.00 $12,200
2014
County Date Acres
Price
Per Acre
Christian Nov 2014 40.00 $12,400
Macon Oct 2014 120.13 $12,750
Moultrie Oct 2014 62.15 $12,100
Coles Nov 2014 73.60 $13,300
Shelby Nov 2014 52.00 $11,100
Piatt Aug 2014 80.00 $12,550
Logan Oct 2014 103.37 $12,500
Sangamon Oct 2014 40.00 $13,500
26. What is a Farm Lease?
• Method to divide annual farm income and
expenses
• Rewards investor for owning land
• Compensates farmer for operating the land
• Reflects the risk taken by both parties
27. General Types of Farm Leases
• Cash Rent – Fixed payments to landowner
• Flexible Cash Rent – Bonus rent paid to landowner
• Crop Share – Share of income/expenses by both
parties
• Modified Crop Share – Deviations from historical
sharing of income/expenses
• Custom Farming – Landowner hires farmer to
operate the land
28.
29. Incomes from Alternative Lease Types, 2013
Land Quality
Lease type Excellent Good Average Fair
------------------ $ per acre ---------------------
Traditional crop share 320 270 230 186
Cash rent 347 281 242 197
Custom farming 394 344 279 226
31. Farmland is what it earns!
Let’s look at three scenarios which help forecast the 2015 land value trend
(using 75% corn and 25% soybean rotation). It will take a combination of good
yields and reasonable prices to have stable land values!
Stable
Net Income
Declining
Net Income
Corn Beans Corn Beans
Yields 210 58 210 58
Grain Prices $4.25 $11.00 $3.50 $10.00
Govt. Payment $0 $0
Gross Income $840 $695
Projected Cash Rent $335 $285
Operating Expenses -$35 -$35
Net Income $300 $250
Investor Return 2½% 2½%
Projected 2014
Land Value
(per acre)
$12,000 $10,000
32. Heartland Outlook
December 2014
Agriculture is experiencing incredible forces from every angle. At Heartland
Ag Group Ltd., we are watching the following key areas:
Commodity Prices – My friend Richard Brock calls this the biggest bear
market in history. Let’s hope we can average $4.00 for corn and $10.00 for
soybeans as minimum prices in our future!
Bushels Per Acre – Rain makes grain - - and our 2014 El Niño season is
forecast to repeat itself next year! Trend line yields should increase going
forward.
Weather Trends–Worldwide weather is crucial - - it has minimized our
global stocks. But it looks like we will rebuild them quickly with good
global weather.
Interest Rates – We are at historic lows - - attractive for
farmland mortgages. Slowly rising long term interest rates
are suggesting a change is coming.
33. Heartland Outlook
December 2014
Alternate Investments – Agriculture is always competing with other
financial opportunities. As farmland’s performance levels off - - the
competition from other financial assets is enhanced. Money could leave
agriculture.
Investor Demand – Our current farm earnings outlook is discouraging
some investors who are now on the sidelines. That is a significant but
temporary change.
Farmer Demand – Our neighbors are spending their high commodity
prices and crop insurance proceeds. When that dries up - - look out.
Net Farm Income – is the primary driver of farmland values - - and
projections are dropping 20%! Don’t forget - - farmland is
what it earns!
34. Don’t Forget
Farmland is a growth stock!
Farmland is what it earns!
Farmland is a hedge against inflation!
Farmland is the new world currency!!
At Heartland Ag Group Ltd. - - the upcoming pressure
on farmland earnings and declining number of investor
and farmland buyers will put pressure on land values.
2015 will be a year of squishy land values!
Save your money - - to Buy a Farm!
35. One Last Thought:
“If you eat - - then you
are a part of
Agriculture.”
Leland Glazebrook
Farm Broadcaster
WDZQ Radio
63. Climate Basic
Climate Advisors and other tools are designed to assist with farming decisions,
and do not substitute for in-person monitoring and sound farming practices.
Data and recommendations are estimates based on The Climate Corporation’s
and third parties’ statistical and agronomic models, research, and data.
Individual results may vary, as weather, growing conditions and farming
practices may vary across growers, locations and years. Data and
recommendations do not modify any rights under insurance policies purchased
through The Climate Corporation’s affiliates.
65. Climate PRO
Climate Advisors and other tools are designed to assist with farming decisions, and
do not substitute for in-person monitoring and sound farming practices.
Data and recommendations are estimates based on The Climate Corporation’s
and third parties’ statistical and agronomic models, research, and data. Individual
results may vary, as weather, growing conditions and farming practices may
vary across growers, locations and years. Data and recommendations do not
modify any rights under insurance policies purchased through The Climate
Corporation’s affiliates.
69. Precision Planting Roadmap
• Continue to build easy to use tools to have our
platform in more cabs
• Develop tools that continue to measure and execute
recommendations
• This feeds Climate PRO Advisors
• Develop robust distribution network to support
hardware sales and service
• Signed an OEM agreement with CaseIH for factory integration
of equipment
We are focused on empowering farmers—large and small—to produce more from their land while conserving more of our world's natural resources such as water and energy.
We are aiming to help farmers around the world protect and improve their productivity. Our unique technology platform includes hardware, software, and related services that help farmers make better decisions, execute those decisions, and insure against risks not in their control.
The power of the platform really comes to life in the field, where all of these tools work together with our Precision Planting equipment to help farmers seamlessly execute recommendations.