The webcast provides a review of retail in Q3 2015, an overview of the current business environment, and how we expect weather to influence consumer spending during the upcoming holiday shopping season.

1. Q3 2015 RECAP & HOLIDAY PREVIEW
WEBCAST
Evan Gold
SVP - Client Services
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director –
Head of Global Retail & Technology

2. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Agenda
• Introductions
• Q3 2015 Weather Insights
• Holiday 2015 Weather Outlook
• Q3 Business Trends & Results
• Holiday 2015 Trends & Impacts
2

3. WEATHER INSIGHTS
Q3 2015 RECAP

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• Warmest Retail Q3 in 20+ years in the
U.S., warmest since 2012 in Canada.
• Warmer temperatures vs. LY across most
of North America.
• Cooler anomalies focused in the Pacific
Northwest & western Canada.
Q3 2015 Weather Recap | Widespread Warmth
Temperature vs. LY Precipitation vs. LY
• Driest since 2011 in the U.S., drier than
LY in Canada.
• Rainfall across western areas as well
as the South East & Texas later in the
quarter helped alleviate drought
conditions.

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Q3 2015 Weather Recap | Drought Monitor
October 28, 2014 October 29, 2015
• Increase in severity across the Pacific Northwest.
• Central Plains and Texas drought reduced.

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Q3 2015 Weather Recap | Hurricane Joaquin (Oct. 2-4)
• Peaked at a Cat. 4 Hurricane
• Did not make landfall
• Brought 20”+ of rainfall to parts of
South Carolina
• Coastal Flooding from the Outer
Banks to New Jersey

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Q3 2015 Weather Recap | Flooding in Texas (Oct. 21-25)
• Early week rain system combined
with Hurricane Patricia
• 20+” of rainfall for locations across
eastern Texas
• Flooding throughout Texas & coastal
Louisiana

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August2015
Temperature vs LY Precipitation vs LY
August 2015| Warm with Increased Tropical Activity
• U.S. & Canada: Warmest
Since 2012
• U.S. Driest Since 2013
• Canada Wettest Since 2008 Business Impacts
• Air Conditioners
• Suncare
• Sandals
• Indoor Entertainment
Traffic
• Long Sleeve Shirts
Retail Traffic: 0.0%

9. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
September 2015| Record Warmth in the U.S.
• U.S.: Wettest since 2013
• Canada: Driest since 2012
September2015
Temperature vs LY Precipitation vs LY
• U.S. Warmest in 55+ Years
• Canada: Warmest since 2012
Business Impacts
• Fans
• Sports Drinks
• Short Sleeve Shirts
• Fleece
• Hot Coffee
Retail Traffic: -1.1%
Labor (Labour) Day
Monday, September 7th
Temperature vs Normal
Precipitation vs Normal

10. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
October2015
Temperature vs LY Precipitation vs LY
October 2015| Colder in Eastern Population Centers, Wet South
• U.S.: Warmest in 20+ years
• Canada: Colder than LY
• U.S.: Wettest since 2009
• Canada: Driest since 2010
Retail Traffic: +0.0%
Business Impacts
• Rainwear
• Exterior Paint
• Electric Blankets
• Sweaters
Halloween
Saturday, October 31st
Temperature vs Normal Precipitation vs Normal

11. WEATHER INSIGHTS
2015 HOLIDAY SEASON OUTLOOK

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Weather Insights| 2014 Recap
Thanksgiving Eve Christmas Eve

13. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• In the U.S., a wetter trend compared
to last year is expected throughout
the majority of the country.
• Parts of the Northwest, South
Central, and Southeast regions will
see drier conditions versus
November 2014.
• Canadian Prairies will see much drier
conditions vs. LY with the remainder
of Canada similar to slightly wetter
vs. LY.
Temperature Precipitation
• Warmest anomalies in the U.S. will
occur in the middle of the country.
• The Pacific Coast should anticipate
pockets of colder temperatures
versus the prior year.
• The majority of Canada can
anticipate much warmer
temperatures compared to
November 2014.
November 2015| Widespread Warmth with Increased Precipitation
November Outlook 2015 vs. 2014

14. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Temperature vs LY Precipitation vs LY
Colder temperatures across the Northeast, Deep South, and West will drive demand
for seasonal goods. A drier East positive for traffic.
For reference, in 2014, Thanksgiving Day was warmest since 2012, wettest since
2010 with the most snowfall since 1989. The Black Friday weekend was warmer than
prior year, but colder than normal.
Black Friday (Week 43)| Cold Temperatures to Drive Seasonal Goods

15. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
December Outlook 2015 vs. 2014
Temperature Precipitation
• Most of the U.S. can expect colder
conditions compared to December.
2014.
• The coldest anomalies will occur in
the West, Northern Plains, and North
Central regions.
• Canada can anticipate much colder
temperatures vs. December 2014.
Coldest conditions will occur in
British Columbia and the Canadian
Prairies.
• In the U.S., a wetter trend compared to
last year is expected in the Northern
Plains, East North Central, South
Central, and Florida.
• The West, Central Plains, New England,
and parts of the Southeast will see drier
conditions versus December 2014.
• The Canadian Prairies and Northwest
British Columbia will see wetter
conditions, while the Canadian
Maritimes will trend drier vs. LY.
December 2015| Cold Temperatures To Drive Seasonal Purchasing

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December 2014 Observed Amounts (Inches) Legend
Inches
December 2015 Outlook Vs LY
Legend
Inches
Change from LY In Inches
• December 2014 was the 2nd warmest
on record.
• While precipitation was near normal,
snowfall ended 57% below normal.
• December 2015 is expected to bring
increased snowfall from the Ohio
Valley to the Pacific Northwest.
• Positive anomalies are also expected
for the Northeast and New England.
• Weather-driven risk is likely to be
confined to the lower Plains and
Southwest.
December Snowfall| Increased Snowfall Upper Midwest, Great Lakes

17. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
December 2014 Observed Amounts (Centimeters) Legend
Centimeters
December 2015 Outlook Vs LY
Legend
Centimeters
• December 2014 brought warm and dry
conditions to almost all major markets.
• Total snowfall trended 60% below prior
year.
• December 2015 is expected to bring a
much more robust demand environment
for all things snow and ice.
• Strongest anomalies are focused from
Alberta through Ontario.
December Snowfall| Higher Snowfall Amounts Expected for Most

18. WEATHER’S IMPACT ON BUSINESS
2015 HOLIDAY SEASON OUTLOOK

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Electric Blankets
-34% WDD
Atlanta
Pants
-8% WDD
New York City
Long Sleeve Shirt
-8% WDD
Houston
Cough & Cold
-4% WDD
Nashville
Firewood
-4% WDD
Denver
Soup
+4% WDD
Seattle
Boots
-8% WDD
Calgary
Fleece
+1% WDD
Toronto
Outerwear
+7% WDD
Winnipeg
Nov. 2015| Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY
Wiper Blades
+27% WDD
Los Angeles

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Boots
-1% WDD
Jacksonville
Heaters
+30%
WDD
Chicago
Hot Coffee
+2% WDD
Dallas
Rainwear
+5% WDD
San Francisco
Firewood
+39% WDD
Seattle
Retail Apparel Store Traffic
+0.6% WDD
National
Ice Melt
+25% WDD
Toronto
Hats, Gloves, & Scarves
+9% WDD
Edmonton
Outerwear
+6% WDD
Saskatoon
Boots
-1% WDD
Vancouver
Snow Throwers
+14% WDD
Boston
Dec. 2015| Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY

21. US 2015 HOLIDAY PREVIEW
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology
Fung Business Intelligence Centre

22. Optimistic About Holiday
We are optimistic about the prospects for holiday sales this year
and believe industry projections could prove to be conservative
• We estimate holiday sales growth of 3% to 4% versus 4.1% last
year and an average increase of 2.5% over the last 10 years
• The NRF is projecting holiday sales growth of 3.7%. On
average, industry groups are forecasting growth of roughly
3.5% for the period
• Favorable macro backdrop, calendar, weather

23. Holiday Retail Sales
$529
$554
$569
$584
$608
$626–$633
5.2%
4.6%
2.7%
2.7%
4.1%
3%–4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$440
$480
$520
$560
$600
$640
$680
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
Growth
Rate
Holiday
Retail
Sales
(USD
Bil.)
Holiday
Retail
Sales
Growth
Rate
Source:
NRF/FBIC
Global
Retail
&
Technology

24. Americans' Christmas Spending Intentions
At The Highest Level Since 2007
Source:
Gallup/FBIC
Global
Retail
&
Technology
695
907
909
801
740
715
712
786
781
812
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Gallup
survey:
Consumers'
IntenNons
for
Christmas
spending
on
giQs
Mean
(incl.
zero)
US
$

25. Walmart Positive About Holidays
Walmart:
• BTS performance: “pretty good”
• Halloween is off to a good start (as of mid-October)
• Expects the holidays to be highly promotional but “fine”
• The US economy: “okay,”
“steady” and “generally in
pretty good shape.”
• Consumer sentiment and
willingness to spend have
improved

26. Anecdotal Evidence from 3Q Favorable
• 6 out of 8 companies that report monthly comp sales beat or
met expectations in September
– Kroger to comp at the higher end of 4–5% for fiscal year 2015
– Strong September results from those retailers that report
monthly sales
• US Census data shows rebound in retail sales in July and
August following a less robust first half of the year

27. Black Friday Expected to
be Better Than LY
• Black Friday will get a boost this year because fewer stores
will be open on Thanksgiving
– Last year, more than a dozen major retailers opened on
Thanksgiving, drawing spending and shoppers away from
Black Friday
• This year, Black Friday is set to be biggest shopping day of
the season, in terms of crowds and dollars spent, according
to ShopperTrak
• Last year, sales on Thanksgiving rose 23.4%; fell by 7% on
Black Friday
– Black Friday spending ($9.1B) was nearly 3x as great as
Thanksgiving spending ($3.2B), according to ShopperTrak

28. Open on Thanksgiving

29. #OptOut Thanksgiving

30. REI Will Be Closed on Black Friday!
• Generous employee benefit and external display of the brand’s
principles
• With #OptOutside, REI will ask people to share what they are
doing on Black Friday via social media
• Launched new logo, including the word “co-op” for first time
since 1983

31. Macro Backdrop Favorable
• US unemployment rate remained at seven-year low of 5.1% in
September, down from 5.9% in September 2014
• Housing starts improved, led by multi-family housing starts
• Real personal disposable income increased by 3.2% and wages
rose 4.1% in August YoY
• Falling gas prices mean windfall for US consumers
• Consumer confidence rebounded to 92.1 in October
• Inflation/deflation
– Apparel prices below average inflationary level
– Food prices above average inflationary level
Sources:
Energy
InformaAon
Agency,
InternaAonal
Monetary
Fund
and
Rhodium
Group

32. Total Housing Starts Improved, Led by Multi-
Family Housing Starts
• Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
1,206,000. This is 6.5% (±16.4%)* above the revised August estimate of 1,132,000 and is
17.5% (±18.0%)* above the September 2014 rate of 1,026,000
• Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 740,000; this is 0.3% (±9.6%)*
above the revised August figure of 738,000. The September rate for units in buildings with
five units or more was 454,000
Through
September
30,
2015,
Seasonally
adjusted
annual
rate
Source:
US
Census
Bureau
Released
on
October
20,
2015
Monthly Housing Starts YoY%
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Monthly
Housing
Starts
YoY%
MulHfamily-­‐LeM
Axis
Single
Family-­‐Right
Axis
28.6
12.0
(10)
0
10
20
30
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
Sep-­‐14
Oct-­‐14
Nov-­‐14
Dec-­‐14
Jan-­‐15
Feb-­‐15
Mar-­‐15
Apr-­‐15
May-­‐15
Jun-­‐15
Jul-­‐15
Aug-­‐15
Sep-­‐15
MulHfamily-­‐LeM
Axis
Single
Family-­‐Right
Axis
Through
September
30,
2015,
Seasonally
adjusted
annual
rate
Source:
US
Census
Bureau
Released
on
October
20,
2015

33. Real Personal Disposable Income and
Wages Continued to Improve
• Real Disposable Income increased by 3.2% in August year-over-year, slightly lower
than July’s figure 3.3%
• Wages & Salaries rose 4.1% in August year-over-year, slightly lower than July’s
figure 4.4%
Through
August
31,
2015
Source:
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
Released
on
September
28,
2015
Monthly
Real
Disposable
Income
and
Wages
&
Salaries
YoY%
,
Last
12
Months
(8)
(3)
2
7
12
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Monthly
Real
Disposable
Income
and
Wages
&
Salaries
YoY%
Wages
&
Salaries
Disposable
Personal
Income
3.2
4.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sep-­‐14
Oct-­‐14
Nov-­‐14
Dec-­‐14
Jan-­‐15
Feb-­‐15
Mar-­‐15
Apr-­‐15
May-­‐15
Jun-­‐15
Jul-­‐15
Aug-­‐15
Wages
&
Salaries
Disposable
Personal
Income

34. Gas Rebate
• Gas prices were $2.40 per gallon in October, down 25% from a
year ago
Sources:
Energy
InformaAon
Agency,
InternaAonal
Monetary
Fund
and
Rhodium
Group
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
$3.25
$3.50
$3.75
$4.00
Oct-­‐14
Nov-­‐14
Dec-­‐14
Jan-­‐15
Feb-­‐15
Mar-­‐15
Apr-­‐15
May-­‐15
Jun-­‐15
Jul-­‐15
Aug-­‐15
Sep-­‐15
Oct-­‐15
Retail
Gasoline
Price
($/Gallon)
This
Year
Last
Year

35. Consumer Confidence
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
University
of
Michigan
Consumer
Confidence
Index
Through
October
2015
Source:
University
of
Michigan
• Consumer sentiment rebounded to 92.1 in October

36. Inflation/Deflation (Apparel Prices)
-­‐1.0
-­‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Jan-­‐04
May-­‐04
Sep-­‐04
Jan-­‐05
May-­‐05
Sep-­‐05
Jan-­‐06
May-­‐06
Sep-­‐06
Jan-­‐07
May-­‐07
Sep-­‐07
Jan-­‐08
May-­‐08
Sep-­‐08
Jan-­‐09
May-­‐09
Sep-­‐09
Jan-­‐10
May-­‐10
Sep-­‐10
Jan-­‐11
May-­‐11
Sep-­‐11
Jan-­‐12
May-­‐12
Sep-­‐12
Jan-­‐13
May-­‐13
Sep-­‐13
Jan-­‐14
May-­‐14
Sep-­‐14
Jan-­‐15
May-­‐15
Sep-­‐15
All
Urban
Consumers
(CPI-­‐U)
Apparel
Through
September
2015
Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaAsAcs
Seasonally
adjusted
• Apparel prices remain deflationary in the US

37. Inflation/Deflation (Food Prices)
-­‐1
-­‐0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Jan-­‐04
May-­‐04
Sep-­‐04
Jan-­‐05
May-­‐05
Sep-­‐05
Jan-­‐06
May-­‐06
Sep-­‐06
Jan-­‐07
May-­‐07
Sep-­‐07
Jan-­‐08
May-­‐08
Sep-­‐08
Jan-­‐09
May-­‐09
Sep-­‐09
Jan-­‐10
May-­‐10
Sep-­‐10
Jan-­‐11
May-­‐11
Sep-­‐11
Jan-­‐12
May-­‐12
Sep-­‐12
Jan-­‐13
May-­‐13
Sep-­‐13
Jan-­‐14
May-­‐14
Sep-­‐14
Jan-­‐15
May-­‐15
Sep-­‐15
All
Urban
Consumers
(CPI-­‐U)
Food
Through
September
2015
Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaAsAcs
Seasonally
adjusted
• Food prices remained inflationary but trending close to overall
CPI

38. Small Business Sentiment Mixed
• Small business optimism is still stagnant, which is consistent
with the expected economic growth of about 2.5 percent.
Source:
Advisor
PerspecAves

39. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
• Extra day between Thanksgiving and Christmas: 29 days,
compared to 28 last year

40. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
• Extra day between Thanksgiving and Christmas: 29 days, compared
to 28 last year
• Thanksgiving falls on November 26, and consequently, Black Friday
falls on November 27 and Cyber Monday on November 30 (last year
it was on December 1)
• Super Saturday falls on December 19, marking the last full weekend
for last-minute shoppers
• Christmas will be on a Friday
this year, leaving the next day,
a Saturday, free for returns and
after-Christmas sales
• Chanukah runs from Monday,
December 7th through Monday,
December 14th vs Tuesday,
December 16th through Wednesday,
December 24th last year

41. Holiday Themes
• Highly promotional holiday
expected
– Walmart launched layaway in
August
– Target expanded price-
matching program in October
to include online retailers
• Earlier shopping
– Last year, 1 in 4 shoppers
bought a Christmas gift before
Halloween
– Almost half did the majority of
shopping before Cyber
Monday
• Bifurcation of Spending
Neiman
Marcus
Saks
Nordstrom
Bloomingdale’s
Ann
Taylor
Costco
Macy’s
Dillard’s
Supervalu
JCPenney
Kohl’s
Kroger
Safeway
Drugstores
(CVS/
Walgreens)
BJ’s/Sam’s
Club
Target
Kmart/Sears
Walmart
Primark
Dollar
Stores
Aldi/Lidl

42. A Very Mobile Holiday Season
• Mobile continues to gain share in e-commerce, accounting for 16%
of digital commerce in Q2, nearly twice its share two years ago
• 2/3 of holiday shoppers intend to browse and purchase more
frequently via mobile this year
Source:
Signal

43. Fashion Trends
• There are few standout fashion trends in
apparel, could challenge the category. We
see standout categories as below.
• Athleisure
– All-day active wear is strong
– Quiksilver hybrid business suit and wetsuit
is sold out @ $2500
– Related to the rise of the fitness-conscious millennial who embrace
fitness as a lifestyle
• Street and outdoor boots, men and women
• Smart Jewelry & Watches
• Accessories
Source:
WGSN
&
Forbes

44. Holiday Fashion Trends
ATHLEISURE FUN FUR RIBBED KNITWEAR
CAPES GRAPHIC DESIGN PLAID

45. Other Holiday Shopping Trends
• Home related goods
• Services and experiences – dining
out, spas, etc.
• Toys
– Star Wars, Minions, etc.
• Gift cards
– Especially Stockpile’s – gift cards for public stocks

46. Source:
FBIC
Global
Retail
&
Technology

48. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2015 Holiday Shopping Season| Key Takeaways
• Pricing and Promotions Continue to Have a Notable Influence on
the Consumer
- Consumers Shopping Earlier and Across More Channels Than Before
• E-Commerce and M-Commerce Growth is Still Expanding
- Traffic and Conversion Trends Differ by Channel
• Warm November vs. LY Shifting to a Colder Comparison by Black
Friday and Into December, Helping Seasonal Businesses
- Expect More Traffic-Limiting Events in December vs. LY

49. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
register @ www.planalytics.com/events
WEBCAST:
Holiday Homestretch
Thursday, Dec. 10 l 2:30 p.m. ET
WEBCAST
Holiday Recap
Thursday, Jan. 7 l 2:30 p.m. ET
JOIN US!

50. THANK YOU!
WEBCAST
Evan Gold
SVP - Client Services
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director –
Head of Global Retail & Technology