This document analyzes financial data from several major oil and gas companies from 2005-2021. It summarizes key metrics like revenues, assets, equity, credit ratings, and dividend policies. It finds that share prices of companies within the industry are highly correlated, except between companies from different continents, suggesting political factors influence prices. It also finds that share price fluctuations do not necessarily correspond to dividend amounts paid. While share repurchases increase stock prices short-term, other market forces are also at play. Return on capital and dividend payout ratios did not correlate in the data, indicating dividends are not a sole measure of company viability.
2. All the share prices are in U.S. dollars, if reported in Euros or Yuan ,in case of
Sinopec (CNPC), they have been changed to USD with appropriate exchange rates
Number of shares outstanding are in millions
Equity outstanding are in millions USD
Return over Capital (ROC), Interest Coverage Ratios (ICR), Payout ratios are
unitless entities
Correlations of share prices are calculated and verified with available databases
Sources:
Refinitiv Eikon - Thomson Reuters
Macrotrends
Respective financial reports
Yahoo finance
1.
2.
3.
4.
5. ESTABLISHED 1870
INDUSTRY OIL AND GAS
REVENUE $178.57BILLION
ASSETS $332.75 BILLION
EQUITY $157.15 BILLION
S&P RATING AA-
FORTUNE 500 RANK 10
p
r
i
c
e
s
i
n
U
S
D
9. fluctuations are recorded
around the dates of
dividend payments,
recorded on the share
prices, overall change in
two days around dividend
payments
Dividend Payment's Impact
i
n
U
S
D
10. ESTABLISHED 1909
INDUSTRY OIL AND GAS
REVENUE $183.5 BILLION
ASSETS $267.65 BILLION
EQUITY $85.57 BILLION
S&P RATING A-
FORTUNE 500 RANK 18
British Petroleum
In
USD
11. DIVIDEND vs EPS vs PAYOUT RATIO
Deepwater Horizon oil spill 2010 in Gulf of Maxico-
Total clean up cost was $14bn.
BP had dropped from the second to the fourth
largest of the four major oil companies by 2013
$55 billion of costs from the oil spill in the Gulf of
Mexico in 2010, said it would cut 7,000 jobs by the
end of 2017, or nearly 9 percent of its workforce.
Global oil crisis 2020
In
USD
12. DEBT vs EQUITY AND SHARES OUTSTANDING
In
BILLIONS
In
BILLIONS
29. CORRELATION OF SHARE PRICES 2005-2021
XOM
BP
SHELL
CNPC
TOTAL
XOM BP SHELL CNPC
0.774639262
0.776076709
0.200274436
0.583792308
0.850475711
0.302321633
0.70309955
0.158105185
0.828609957 -0.201068996
30. ESTIMATION OF DIVIDENDS FROM REVENUES
Model representing the
flows through which the
firms estimate free cash
flow
33. KEY TAKEAWAYS
Companies in same industry show close correlation, in share prices, except outliers
when they are of different continents (political forces at play)
Share price fluctuation does not necessarily happen in magnitude of dividends
paid in real world
Share-repurchases they do increase the stock prices in the year they're exacted,
but other forces are at play
Personal Taxes and Dividends distribution tax force higher income groups to
forego dividends
ROC & Dividend payouts do not correlate in our data sample; thus giving the idea
dividends aren't the litmus test of a company's viability