Many Americans have attended or seen pictures of memorials to victims of gun violence. Strong majorities favor some limits on gun ownership. Why, then, have such proposals failed to be enacted? #WeAreOrlando #PulseOrlando
This is a good time to ask what students themselves think of public opinion: Is it well-informed? Useful? Overvalued? Too often ignored? Do you think your fellow citizens have strongly held political beliefs, weak political beliefs, or few political beliefs at all? Regarding your personal beliefs, how do you think you compare to your fellow citizens? How do you compare to your parents or friends?
Of course, this chapter is about what political scientists have learned by studying public opinion.
Specifically:
Most evidence suggests that public opinion helps explain why certain policies have the outcomes that they do.
On the other hand, older scholarship interprets the evidence to conclude that “Americans have no firm beliefs about government and thus can be easily swayed by candidates, media, and advocacy groups.”
Politicians read public opinion polls closely to gauge whether their behavior will anger or please constituents. Few politicians always follow survey results—but virtually none would agree with Calvin’s father that polls should be ignored entirely.
Are Americans poorly informed about politics? One survey found that more Americans could identify characters on The Simpsons than could list which liberties the Bill of Rights guarantees, and another found most respondents unable to name any Supreme Court justices. #SCOTUS
The new theory of public opinion calls for a broader definition of public opinion than earlier studies did. Basically, the public has a much broader set of opinions than those that were originally assessed, which focused only on politics and ideology; and the content of those beliefs can be much more fluid—constantly assimilating and reacting to new information.
In general, there are two types of opinions:
Broad expressions of preferences across a wide range of topics; formed early in life, these are fairly stable and include party identification, general ideology (e.g., liberal versus conservative), and beliefs about religion.
Opinions created “on-the-spot” when needed are latent opinions; latent, on-the-spot opinions are formed by considerations, the relevant information that comes to mind when an opinion is requested.
A question about who should provide health insurance—government or private insurers—might call to mind a fight with an insurance company over a medical claim, recent dealings with government bureaucrats, or how a good insurance plan helped a family member survive cancer. Which considerations are called to mind will depend on the context and the specific moment in which a person is being asked.
This description of how most people think about politics explains many of the anomalies in early studies of public opinion. People have trouble expressing their opinions because they are often devising these opinions on the spot. Although people cannot often provide a rationale for their beliefs, this doesn’t mean the beliefs are baseless; rather, such information might not be remembered. And it makes sense that opinions change over time, as people vary the considerations they use.
Consider two different questions you might be asked: “Do you prefer Coke or Pepsi?” and “What kind of house would you like to own?” Most people are able to answer the first question quickly and concretely. Whereas unless people have been thinking about home ownership, their answers to the second question will be more vague and based on less concrete considerations. This captures much of how people answer questions about their political opinions as most people do not regularly think about what their views are on a wide range of political issues.
Of course, the facts that are on the news don’t simply “interpret themselves.” They have to be framed by the people who write the news. This is why media bias—whether real or imagined—is always a contentious matter.
President Barack Obama had high approval ratings (around 80 percent approval) in October 2009, but after a steady decline his ratings leveled off in February 2010 (with about 45 percent approval and 45 percent disapproval) and remained fairly level for the rest of his presidency. What factors account for fluctuations in presidential approval?
People may form their opinion on immigration differently depending on whether they are considering the economy, humanitarianism, or partisanship. Considerations may contradict one another, as when a Catholic democrat answers a survey item about abortion. The opinion given at the time of the survey will depend on whether the religion or partisanship came to mind when asked about abortion.
People who are more politically knowledgeable will have thought about more issues, and thus have preformed opinions on more issues, than those who are less aware. As a result, they are more likely to give more ideologically consistent answers.
Political socialization begins at birth. Some research has shown that certain political predispositions may be genetically based. There is a strong positive correlation between political ideology and partisan leanings of parents and their children. The broader community a person is exposed to in their youth—including neighbors, classmates, teachers, clergy, and friends—also feeds into political socialization.
Political socialization from childhood is powerful, but not necessarily permanent.
Some events are specific, individual experiences. For instance, a student who believes that they were only able to get a college degree through government grants and loans might favor a larger, more activist government.
Certain events shape the beliefs of large numbers of people in similar ways:
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, seemed to change many people’s opinions about nation building, terrorism, defense spending, and similar issues.
Similarly, the government’s much-maligned response to Hurricane Katrina affected many people’s views of the Bush administration.
Events are more likely to have an impact on an individual’s opinion if a person considers it an important event and if it is in an area that a person knows little about. The fewer preexisting principles or beliefs an individual has on an issue, the more likely new information is to change their opinion.
Opinions are also influenced by politicians and political actors. We often look to leaders of political parties for information based on their presumed expertise. Politicians also work to shape opinion, attempting to win public support for their policy proposals.
The General Social Survey (GSS) has been conducted since 1972 to assess the opinions of Americans on certain key issues. Those who take the surveys are asked to indicate if they agree or disagree with statements such as those shown in the table. The percentages indicate those who agree with the statements. Group differences based on such factors as gender, age, race, and family income have been shown to affect the answers given by the respondents.
Recently, support for same-sex marriage has grown. What do these graphs tell us about the influence of group identity on public opinion? Is support for same-sex marriage likely to increase or decrease in the future? Why?
Mass surveys can provide very accurate estimates of public opinion for a large population with a relatively small sample. Focus groups offer the chance to gain deep insight into why people hold the opinions that they do: something surveys do not do. But focus groups cannot be used to draw conclusions about public opinion in the rest of the country.
Random sampling is the key to reliable survey information but all current methods, including face-to-face, Internet, random digit dialing, and robo-polling, have drawbacks.
Pollsters are often confronted with social desirability bias, and thus have to come up with ways to circumvent this: whether it is validating that someone did in fact go to the polls, or in asking questions framed from the country’s perspective, rather than the respondent’s (e.g., “Is the country ready for a female president?” versus “Would you vote for a female candidate?”).
How questions are worded can affect survey results. These surveys all ask about immigration reform but differ in the number of requirements that noncitizens would have to satisfy. In light of how the responses to survey questions are shaped by the precise wording of these questions, what sort of question would you ask if your goal was to show that Americans favored immigration reform? What if you wanted to show high levels of opposition?
It is true that many Americans have significant gaps in factual information, like which party controls the House or the Senate or the name of the chief justice of the Supreme Court. Americans also routinely overstate the amount of federal money spent on government programs such as foreign aid. The amount of error in opinions about foreign aid is extremely large: people believe that the government spends more than 10 times the amount that it actually does. Other surveys show that many Americans overestimate the amount of money spent on other programs such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) or distributive benefits (“pork barrel spending”).
A succinct, interesting inquiry on citizens’ grasp of political facts can be found in an article titled, “‘Just the Facts, Ma’am’: Political Facts and Public Opinion,” in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 560, No. 1 (1998): 143–154.
All of this leads to the question: How useful are surveys? Very useful if done correctly and used correctly.
Mass opinion surveys are a powerful tool for measuring public opinion, but their results must be interpreted carefully.
Potential pitfalls of mass surveys. (This is a long list but it is by no means comprehensive!)
. Surveys often ask about complex issues that respondents may not have thought about.
2. Samples may be biased, despite heroic efforts to randomize them.
3. Some people may also be reluctant to admit some opinions to an interviewer.
4. Respondents’ opinions may change from day to day.
5. The wording of the questions may distort respondents’ results.
6. The timing of the survey (including events on the day the survey was carried out) can influence responses.
7. Answers may reflect how familiar people are with the topics of the questions.
8. Finally, all surveys that use a sample of the population can only measure public opinion within a margin of error.
The bottom line is not to disregard mass surveys, but rather to interpret them with caution!
Many commentators describe politics in America as highly conflictual, with most Americans holding either liberal or conservative points of view and identifying with one of the two major parties. Is polarization as strong as these commentators think? What do the numbers say?
Many commentators describe politics in America as highly conflictual, with most Americans holding either liberal or conservative points of view and identifying with one of the two major parties. Is polarization as strong as these commentators think? What do the numbers say?
Many commentators describe politics in America as highly conflictual, with most Americans holding either liberal or conservative points of view and identifying with one of the two major parties. Is polarization as strong as these commentators think? What do the numbers say?
A significant percentage of Americans have always been distrustful and disparaging of the federal government—and the percentage of people holding such views has increased markedly in the last generation. Does the perception that government is wasteful and inefficient make it easier or harder to enact new policies? How might the decline in trust explain the rise of the Tea Party organization and candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders?
How is it that Americans disapprove of government overall, but give relatively high ratings in many specific areas?
Trust in government reached a low point during the mid-1970s. The decline partly reflected the economic downturn and conflict over the Vietnam War, but opinions were also shaped by the discovery that President Richard Nixon lied about the Watergate scandal. Here, Nixon resigns from office to avoid impeachment.
Surveys assess the public’s policy mood by asking questions about specific policy questions such as levels of taxation and government spending and the role of government. The level of conservatism (for example, support for smaller, less-active government) was at a high in 1952 and 1980. Could you have used the policy mood prior to the election to predict the outcomes of the 2012 presidential and 2012 and 2014 congressional elections?
Based on what we know about how considerations affect opinions, we should not be surprised that individuals think of different things when they think about “the economy.”
Given this data on policy priorities, what legislation will likely be proposed by incoming president Donald Trump?
Arguments against the importance of public opinion
While some people are not counted at all, others have accumulated great wealth and influence and therefore, some would argue, disproportionate power.
Of course, it could be that divided public opinion results in a compromise that fully satisfies no one.
Our constitutional design also makes change (responsiveness to public opinion) difficult.
Recalling the early part of the lecture, note that Americans have a difficult time reciting even basic facts about American politics and government (How many congressmen are there? Identify justices on the Supreme Court, etc.). Thus, we must ask, “How much should public opinion matter?” The answer to that question has a lot to do with what one thinks fairness and justice require, but also in deciding what prudence and practicality would suggest. If fairness and justice point in one direction and pragmatism in another, how can politicians, policy makers, or citizens decide between the two?
To help us understand the lessons of the study of public opinion, let’s concentrate on more concrete questions [next slide].
Images of confrontation between pro-choice and pro-life protesters may conceal the more nuanced considerations that underlie most Americans’ opinions about abortion. A majority of Americans believe that the decision to have an abortion should be left up to the woman but are uncomfortable allowing unrestricted access to the procedure. #ProChoice #ProLife
In general, children tend to adopt their parents’ ideology and party affiliation. Former president George H. W. Bush and his sons, former president George W. Bush and former governor of Florida (and presidential candidate) Jeb Bush, are all Republicans.
Politicians on both sides of the debate tried to influence public opinion about health care reform. While Obama and the Democrats sought to convince Americans that the new plan was necessary, opponents played up the possible disadvantages, with references to costs, “death panels,” and bureaucratic incompetence. #ACA #Obamacare
Although events such as wars, economic upheavals, and major policy changes certainly influence public opinion, research shows that most Americans acquire some political opinions early in life from parents, friends, teachers, and others in their community. #Trump2016
Public opinion influences government at election time, when voters’ opinions about incumbent politicians and the party in power influence voters’ decisions at the polls. In 2016, voters’ evaluations of President Obama were an important influence on the election outcome.
Americans in both parties agree on the need for immigration reform but differ as to what they think the new immigration policies should be.
A person’s ideological perspective is relatively stable over time. People who have a conservative ideology generally oppose increasing government spending and taxes.
Opinions are sensitive to recent events; when asked to name the most important problem facing the United States today, the percentage of respondents who answered “terrorism” increased sharply after the 2015 attacks in Paris, France. Rahm Emanuel (President Obama’s first Chief of Staff) once said, “You never let a serious crisis go to waste.” Based on this argument, how would a politician respond to the Paris attacks?
