17 471 19_nuclear_weapons

1. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 11
American National SecurityAmerican National Security
In the Coming DecadeIn the Coming Decade

2. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 22
Determinants & InfluencesDeterminants & Influences
National Interests?National Interests?
ThreatsThreats
Domestic PoliticsDomestic Politics
Personalities/Personalities/
Bureaucratic InterestsBureaucratic Interests
Partisan PoliticsPartisan Politics
Interest groupsInterest groups
Public OpinionPublic Opinion
HistoryHistory
TechnologyTechnology
EconomyEconomy
OrganizationalOrganizational
InterestsInterests
International PoliticsInternational Politics

3. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 33
Prominent ThreatsProminent Threats
Challenges to US Survival?Challenges to US Survival?
Challenges to US Domestic Security?Challenges to US Domestic Security?
Challenges to US Prosperity?Challenges to US Prosperity?
Economic prosperityEconomic prosperity
Social prosperitySocial prosperity
Political prosperityPolitical prosperity
Challenges to US Hegemony?Challenges to US Hegemony?

4. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 44
Weapons of MassWeapons of Mass
DestructionDestruction

5. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 55
WMDWMD
Nuclear & radiologicalNuclear & radiological
ChemicalChemical
BiologicalBiological
Delivery SystemsDelivery Systems
MissilesMissiles
BallisticBallistic
cruisecruise
longlong--range aircraftrange aircraft

6. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 66
Nuclear ProliferationNuclear Proliferation
19451945--19551955
US, USSR, UKUS, USSR, UK
19561956--19651965
France, ChinaFrance, China
Canada, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, Italy,Canada, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, Italy,
Czechoslovakia, Poland, Australia, HungaryCzechoslovakia, Poland, Australia, Hungary
19661966--19751975
India, (Israel)India, (Israel)
Rumania, Norway, Switzerland, Yugoslavia, Argentina, Brazil, SpaRumania, Norway, Switzerland, Yugoslavia, Argentina, Brazil, Spain,in,
Egypt, Taiwan, Turkey, South KoreaEgypt, Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea
19761976--19851985
(South Africa)(South Africa)
Bulgaria, Greece, AustriaBulgaria, Greece, Austria
19861986--20052005
PakistanPakistan
Iraq, Iran, N. KoreaIraq, Iran, N. Korea

7. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 77
Nuclear Proliferation as a ThreatNuclear Proliferation as a Threat
Nuclear Weapons for Regional PowersNuclear Weapons for Regional Powers
Limits US intervention optionsLimits US intervention options
Nuclear Weapons in conflict dyadsNuclear Weapons in conflict dyads
Likelihood of nuclear useLikelihood of nuclear use
VulnerabilityVulnerability
CC33
Likelihood of use against US “friends” & US territoryLikelihood of use against US “friends” & US territory
Political & economic instability affects marketsPolitical & economic instability affects markets
Nuclear Weapons in weak statesNuclear Weapons in weak states
“Loose Nukes”“Loose Nukes”
“Virtual” Nuclear Arsenals“Virtual” Nuclear Arsenals

8. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 88
Coping with Nuclear ProliferationCoping with Nuclear Proliferation
Baruch Plan (1946)Baruch Plan (1946)
Atoms for Peace (1955)Atoms for Peace (1955)
NonNon--Proliferation Treaty (1968)Proliferation Treaty (1968)
BiBi--lateral actionslateral actions
S. Korea & Taiwan (1970s & 1980s)S. Korea & Taiwan (1970s & 1980s)
Pakistan (1980s)Pakistan (1980s)
N. Korea (1993N. Korea (1993--1994)1994)
Former Soviet Union (1992Former Soviet Union (1992--present)present)

9. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 99
Chemical & Biological WeaponsChemical & Biological Weapons
Biological Weapons Treaty (1972)Biological Weapons Treaty (1972)

10. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 1010
U.S. OptionsU.S. Options

11. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 1111
Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons
How can nuclear weapons enhance U.S. nationalHow can nuclear weapons enhance U.S. national
security in the years ahead?security in the years ahead?
Are there drawbacks?Are there drawbacks?
Historical PerspectiveHistorical Perspective
What roles have nuclear weapons played in AmericanWhat roles have nuclear weapons played in American
National Security Policy?National Security Policy?
Who were the advocates for nuclear weapons?Who were the advocates for nuclear weapons?
What did they advocate?What did they advocate?
Were there opponents?Were there opponents?
What were their arguments?What were their arguments?

12. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 1212
Extended DeterrenceExtended Deterrence
How do we convince potential adversariesHow do we convince potential adversaries
that they cannot attain their goals bythat they cannot attain their goals by
threatening US interests?threatening US interests?
CapabilityCapability
CredibilityCredibility
CommunicationCommunication
Punishment vs. DenialPunishment vs. Denial
Conventional Arms vs. Nuclear ArmsConventional Arms vs. Nuclear Arms
Threat vs. UseThreat vs. Use

13. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 1313
Other MeasuresOther Measures
New TechnologiesNew Technologies
Missile Defense (?)Missile Defense (?)
Special ForcesSpecial Forces
Intelligence Collection & AnalysisIntelligence Collection & Analysis
ForeignForeign
domesticdomestic