Because the “technology” dimension of the field, educational technology tends to have a future orientation. We seek out the newest technologies and look for ways to integrate them into our work. So what’s on the horizon for our field in the next five to ten years? Working with the 2019 Horizon Report from Educause and the experts in the room (you!), this interactive session explores where technologies are most and least likely to affect teaching and learning, support of students, the management of educational endeavors, and work lives in general, and suggests how participants can prepare themselves for what’s on the horizon.

1. What’s on the Horizon
for Educational
Technology
SAUL CARLINER, PHD, CTDP
CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY
MONTREAL, CANADA

2. Let’s take a technology “snapshot.”
 The most used
software application for
preparing instructional
content
 The most exciting
technology on the
horizon
 The biggest challenge
affecting the adoption
of technology in
education
 The biggest
opportunity for
technology to have a
positive impact on
education

3. Let’s compare this with the experts.

4. A cautionary tale: “Fail or Scale”
 “Adaptive Learning: Understanding Its Progress and
Potential
 “Augmented and Mixed Reality: The Why, When, and How
of Situating Learning in Authentic Contexts
 “Gaming and Gamification: High Hopes and Campus
Realities”
Alexander, B. Ashford-Rowe, K., Barajas-Murphy, N., Dobbin, G., Knott, J., McCormack, M. Pomerantz, J., Seilhamer, R. & Weber, N. EDUCAUSE Horizon Report:
2019 Higher Education Edition. Louisville, CO: Educause

5. Let’s step away for a moment

6. Top 10 Emerging Trends and Technologies in the
ATD, IACET, and Rothwell and Associates Study
 Storytelling
 Infographics
 Designing content for use in various cultures or regions
 Learning analytics
 Virtual simulation and game-based learning
 Mobile learning
 Adaptive learning (e.g. personalized learning)
 Social media
 Badges

7. Some of the trends weren’t new at all.
Theme Definition Earliest reference found
Examples of additional
references found
Themes in the
literature and the
decades in which they
were introduced
Designing content for
use in various cultures
or regions
Either designing content
that shows sensitivity to
diverse cultural groups
within the local
workforce (domestic
diversity) or designing
content that will be
accepted in other
political and geographic
jurisdictions
(globalization).
Frank (1970) Lippert (1970) Recchia
(1970) Johnson (1974)
Copeland (1984)
Masterson (1986)
Sugar (1987)
Rhinesmith (1991)
Heard (1996)
(Wagner, 1999)
Designing content that
shows sensitivity to
diversity (1970s)
Helping disadvantaged
groups (1970s)
Training practices in
other countries (1970s)
Cross-cultural training
(1980s)
Preparing expatriates to
work abroad (1970s)

8. Some of the trends weren’t new at all.
Theme Definition
Earliest
reference
found
Examples of additional
references found
Themes in the
literature and the
decades in which they
were introduced
Mobile
learning
Use of mobile devices (1) as a
platform for distance education
and (2) as a device for
producing and using materials.
Training & Development has
covered both of these uses for
several decades, sometimes in
relation to an earlier mobile
device such as a Walkman,
sometimes in a broader
context.
Robinson
(1968) (video
production)
Golde (1973); Miller (1974);
O’Sullivan (1977); Fager (1978);
Dickson (1990); Geocaris (1980);
Thomas (1980); Komras (1981) ;
Bullock (1982); Kung & Rado
(1984); Kearlsey (1986);
Robinson (1988); Porter (1990);
Ward & Lee (1995); Abernathy
(1997); Mantyla & Gividen,
(1997); Gayeski (2004); Gayeski
& Petrillose (2005); Melhuish &
Falloon (2010)
 Benefits of distance
education (1970s)
 How to design and
deliver distance
education (1970s)
 Production and
viewing of materials
(1960s) online
(1980s)
 Convergence of
media (1980s)

9. All of the top 10 trends had links to the past
Theme Other names for the concept Earliest reference found
Storytelling Storytelling White and Abrams (1965)
Infographics Visual communication Kerfoot (1966)
Designing content for
use in various cultures,
regions
In a global context: Globalization, localization, translation
In a national context: Diversity
Frank (1970)
Learning analytics Evaluation
Measurement
Metrics
Papaloizos and Nicholls (1970)
Virtual simulation and
game-based learning
Simulation
Gaming
Misshauk and Carlson (1970)
Mobile learning A platform for distance education
A device for producing and using materials.
Robinson (1968) (video
production)
Adaptive learning (e.g.
personalized learning)
Adaptive learning
Personalized learning
Klaus (1965)
Badges  Prior Learning Assessment and Recognition
 Certification
 Continuing Education Units (CEUs)
Kutler (1975)

10. What we concluded
 Many “trends” are actually continuations of earlier trends,
evolutions rather than revolutions
 Abrupt changes in terminology and parallel conversations
in related fields prevent linking the trends

11. In other words, when considering new
technologies, begin by asking: How new is this?

12. Next, consider practical issues.
Approximate average number of hours of development per finished hour of
instruction
Instructor-led training 40:1
Live virtual instructor led training* 60:1
Level 1 e-learning (slidecast) 79:1
Level 2 e-learning (“traditional”) 179:1
Level 3 e-learning (simulations, virtual
reality, scripted, staged video)
450:1
Chapman (2010), Kapp and De Felice (2009) (except *)

13. Now lets add costs.
Approximate average number of hours of development per finished hour of instruction
Instructional designer
@ $85/hour
Instructor-led training 40:1 $3,400
Live virtual instructor led training* 60:1 $5,100
Level 1 e-learning (slidecast) 79:1 $5,715
Level 2 e-learning (“traditional”) 179:1 $15,215
Level 3 e-learning (simulations, virtual reality,
scripted, staged video)
450:1 $38,250
Chapman (2010), Kapp and De Felice (2009) (except *)

14. And let’s consider the number of students who might
benefit and the gatekeepers for major purchases.
Type of situation Size of population Who controls the buying
decision--texts
Who controls the buying
decision—equipment
Typical grade school
class
25 * number of sections
* school district size
School board or State
Board of Education
School board or State
Board of Education
Bachelors—General
education
100s to 1,000s per
university
Course coordinator Dean or senior
administration
Bachelors—Major, 200-
level
50s to 100s per
university
Instructor Program director or
senior administration
Bachelors—Major, 300-
level
50s to 100s per
university
Instructor Program director or
senior administration
Masters and certificate 10s to 50s per university Instructor Program director or
senior administration
PhD 10s to 50s per university Instructor Program director or
senior administration

15. These types of ideas are encapsulated in the Unified
Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology
Performance
expectancy
Effort
Expectancy
Social
influence
Facilitating
Conditions

16. One last issue: Have we considered the “long
tail?”
Consider spending on training

17. Let’s step back to the Horizon Report

18. “Key trends accelerating technology
adoption in higher education”
“Driving Ed Tech
adoption in higher
education for five or
more years
Mid-Term Trends:
Driving Ed Tech adoption
in higher education for
the next three to five
years
Short-Term Trends:
Driving Ed Tech adoption
in higher education for
the next one to two
years
 Rethinking How
Institutions Work
 Modularized and
Disaggregated
Degrees
 Advancing Cultures of
Innovation
 Growing Focus on
Measuring Learning
 Redesigning Learning
Spaces
 Blended Learning
Designs”
Alexander, B. Ashford-Rowe, K., Barajas-Murphy, N., Dobbin, G., Knott, J., McCormack, M. Pomerantz, J.,
Seilhamer, R. & Weber, N. EDUCAUSE Horizon Report: 2019 Higher Education Edition. Louisville, CO:
Educause

19. “Significant Challenges Impeding Technology
Adoption in Higher Education”
“Difficult Challenges:
Those that we
understand but for
which solutions are
elusive
Solvable Challenges:
Those that we
understand and know
how to solve
Wicked Challenges:
Those that are complex
to even define, much
less address
 The Evolving Roles of
Faculty with Ed Tech
Strategies
 Achievement Gap
 Improving Digital
Fluency
 Increasing Demand for
Digital Learning
Experience and
Instructional Design
Expertise
 Advancing Digital
Equity
 Rethinking the
Practice of Teaching”
Alexander, B. Ashford-Rowe, K., Barajas-Murphy, N.,
Dobbin, G., Knott, J., McCormack, M. Pomerantz, J.,
Seilhamer, R. & Weber, N. EDUCAUSE Horizon Report:
2019 Higher Education Edition. Louisville, CO: Educause

20. “Important Developments in Educational
Technology for Higher Education”
“Time-to-Adoption
Horizon: One Year or
Less
Time-to-Adoption
Horizon: Two to Three
Years
Time-to-Adoption
Horizon: Four to Five
Years
 Mobile Learning
 Analytics Technologies
 Mixed Reality
 Artificial Intelligence
 Blockchain
 Virtual Assistants”
Alexander, B. Ashford-Rowe, K., Barajas-Murphy, N., Dobbin, G., Knott, J., McCormack, M.
Pomerantz, J., Seilhamer, R. & Weber, N. EDUCAUSE Horizon Report: 2019 Higher
Education Edition. Louisville, CO: Educause

21. Let’s make some technology predictions.
The most exciting technology
on the horizon
The biggest opportunity for
technology to have a positive
impact on education (and
indicate the level)
The biggest challenge
affecting the adoption of
technology in education
The most necessary
innovation needed in
education (and indicate the
level)

22. And speaking of innovation. . .

23. So what