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The Future of Health
Ramon Lorenzo Luis R. Guinto, MD
Consultant, International Organization for Migration and Department ...
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
IDC History of Medicine
• Lectures, lectures, lectures – from Pre-
Hippocratic to Medicine’s Dark Side!
• Papers, papers, ...
History
• History – “Histoire” – Inquiry
• Kasaysayan – “Saysay” – Meaning
• Elements of History – 5W’s and 1H
• Methods o...
Milestones in Global Health Thinking
Why Study History of Medicine?
• Understand the present
• Learn from past mistakes
• Gain inspiration
•See the future!
I Ka Wa Ma Mua, Ka Wa Ma Hope
The Future is in the Past!
Getting Better: 200 Years of Medicine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxx14RCxblg
Questions
• Who or what is instrumental in the
achievement of the desired outcome?
• What are the drivers of change? Posit...
Futures Thinking
The ability to envision scenarios
for a more desirable future
Can you see the future?
• Are you ready/trained?
• Is your society ready?
• How does it look to you?
How can you see the future?
CREATE IT!
Predict the future?
• Futurists cannot predict the future
• They invent preferred futures!
• Opening minds to probable and...
Futures Thinking: Process
• Asking the question – What will the
future look like? How far ahead you want
to think?
• Scann...
Futures Thinking: Process
• Mapping the possibilities – There is no ONE
future!
– The future is WHAT I expect.
– The futur...
Futures Thinking: Process
• Asking the next question – What
happens then?
• Thinking it through – How will we get
there?
Seeing Futures – 3 Scales
• Future as it emerges
– The moment, present
– Tactics, flow
• Medium Range
– Strategy, planning...
Four Generic Alternative Futures
• Continued Growth
• Collapse
• Disciplined Society
• Transformational Society
WHAT’S NEXT?
CONTINUED GROWTH?
WHAT’S NEXT?
COLLAPSE?
WHAT’S NEXT?
A DISCIPLINED SOCIETY?
WHAT’S NEXT?
A TRANSFORMATIONAL SOCIETY?
Filipinas, Dentro de Cien Años
(Philippines, A Century Hence)
“We know their present. Now what
will their future be?
Will ...
Professor Hans Rosling
200 countries, 200 years, 4 minutes - Global Health History
from “The Joy of Stats”
http://www.yout...
Alma Ata, 1978
The International Conference on Primary Health
Care calls for urgent action by all governments,
all health ...
From Beaglehole and Bonita, 2012
Glasgow, Scotland (deprived suburb) 54
India 61
Philippines 65
Korea 65
Lithuania 66
Poland 71
Mexico 72
Cuba 75
US 75
UK ...
LEB over 80 years
IMR less than 10
MM less than 15
LEB under 60 years
IMR over 90
MM over 150
Source: Dr. Ramon Paterno, U...
• Doctor
• Pathologist
• Biologist
• Politician
• First to recognize leukemia
• Elucidated embolism
• Founded “Social Medi...
Do we not always find
the diseases of the
populace traceable to
defects in society?
Dr. Rudolf Virchow
Father of Social Me...
• Prosperity
• Education
• Liberty
Remedy for Epidemics?
Social Determinants of Health
• Conditions in the social,
physical, and economic
environment in which
people are born, gro...
Globalization
• Economic; trade
• Cultural diffusion
• Knowledge and
technology transfer
• Global village/family
• Interde...
Champagne Glass of Inequality
From UNDP Human Development Report 1992 as cited by
http://thesocietypages.org/graphicsociol...
Social injustice is killing
people on a grand
scale.
WHO Commission on Social
Determinants of Health
It is not inequalities that kill, but those
who benefit from the inequalities that kill.
Vicente Navarro
Johns Hopkins Uni...
21st Century Global Health Challenges:
Five Trends that Shape the Future
1 and 2: Demographic
We are getting older and liv...
Present Global Health Challenges
Emerging infections • Climate Change • Noncommunicable Diseases • Neglected Tropical
Dise...
Rebalancing society
Refashioning aid and NGOs as
instruments of change
Privileging sustainability above
profitability
Fair...
Millennium Development Goals
Health in the Post-2015 Agenda
• Health as a Precondition/Contributor
• Health as a Beneficiary
• Health as an Indicator
Health and Sustainable Developme...
Universal Health Coverage
Trade and Health
Lancet-UiO Commission on Global
Governance for Health
Promoting inter-generational dialogue
The Future Walks Among
Us!
“Any useful idea about the future
must appear to be ridiculous!”
“The doctor of the future will give no
medicine, but will interest his patients
in the care of the human frame, ind
diet, ...
Create one ‘ridiculous’ idea about
the future of health in 2040.
Submit on Wednesday, March 19!
What is your
Take Home Lessons:
LU 3 and beyond
• Remember your history!
• Continue being aware of the present – which
is history a sec...
“Vision without action is merely a dream.
Action without vision just passes time.
Vision WITH action
can change the world....
Yesterday is history.
Tomorrow is mystery.
Today is a gift
That is why it is called
PRESENT!
"Health is not
everything, but
without health
everything is
nothing.“
Arthur Schopenhauer
German Philosopher
Thank you very much!
The Future of Health
The Future of Health
The Future of Health
The Future of Health
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The Future of Health

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Lecture given to Learning Unit 2 students of the Integrated Liberal Arts-Medicine Program of the University of the Philippines College of Medicine, March 12, 2014, Paz Mendoza Building

Fourth INTARMED batch to experience my interactive session on "Futures Thinking" for health - one of the closing sessions in the subject "History of Medicine"

Published in: Health & Medicine
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The Future of Health

  1. 1. The Future of Health Ramon Lorenzo Luis R. Guinto, MD Consultant, International Organization for Migration and Department of Health Member, Lancet-University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health Member, Universal Health Care Study Group, University of the Philippines Manila UP Medicine Class of 2012 (INTARMED)
  2. 2. Who am I?
  3. 3. Who am I?
  4. 4. Who am I?
  5. 5. Who am I?
  6. 6. Who am I?
  7. 7. Who am I?
  8. 8. Who am I?
  9. 9. Who am I?
  10. 10. Who am I?
  11. 11. IDC History of Medicine • Lectures, lectures, lectures – from Pre- Hippocratic to Medicine’s Dark Side! • Papers, papers, papers! • Visit at Co Tec Tai Museum • Show and Tell – next week?
  12. 12. History • History – “Histoire” – Inquiry • Kasaysayan – “Saysay” – Meaning • Elements of History – 5W’s and 1H • Methods of Studying History • Perspectives in Looking at History
  13. 13. Milestones in Global Health Thinking
  14. 14. Why Study History of Medicine? • Understand the present • Learn from past mistakes • Gain inspiration •See the future!
  15. 15. I Ka Wa Ma Mua, Ka Wa Ma Hope The Future is in the Past!
  16. 16. Getting Better: 200 Years of Medicine http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxx14RCxblg
  17. 17. Questions • Who or what is instrumental in the achievement of the desired outcome? • What are the drivers of change? Positive drivers? Negative drivers? • What are some of the future issues that the each of the three movements will need to grapple with?
  18. 18. Futures Thinking The ability to envision scenarios for a more desirable future
  19. 19. Can you see the future? • Are you ready/trained? • Is your society ready? • How does it look to you?
  20. 20. How can you see the future? CREATE IT!
  21. 21. Predict the future? • Futurists cannot predict the future • They invent preferred futures! • Opening minds to probable and possible futures
  22. 22. Futures Thinking: Process • Asking the question – What will the future look like? How far ahead you want to think? • Scanning the world – What are the drivers that will shape the future?
  23. 23. Futures Thinking: Process • Mapping the possibilities – There is no ONE future! – The future is WHAT I expect. – The future is BETTER than I expect. – The future is WORSE than I expect. – The future is WEIRDER than I expect.
  24. 24. Futures Thinking: Process • Asking the next question – What happens then? • Thinking it through – How will we get there?
  25. 25. Seeing Futures – 3 Scales • Future as it emerges – The moment, present – Tactics, flow • Medium Range – Strategy, planning • Longer, imaginable, preferred vision – What Could Be (Novelties) – 50 years? 100 years?
  26. 26. Four Generic Alternative Futures • Continued Growth • Collapse • Disciplined Society • Transformational Society
  27. 27. WHAT’S NEXT? CONTINUED GROWTH?
  28. 28. WHAT’S NEXT? COLLAPSE?
  29. 29. WHAT’S NEXT? A DISCIPLINED SOCIETY?
  30. 30. WHAT’S NEXT? A TRANSFORMATIONAL SOCIETY?
  31. 31. Filipinas, Dentro de Cien Años (Philippines, A Century Hence) “We know their present. Now what will their future be? Will the Philippine Islands continue to be a Spanish colony, and if so, what kind of colony? Will they become a province of Spain, with or without autonomy? And to reach this stage, what kind of sacrifices will have to be made? Will they be separated from the mother country to live independently, to fall into the hands of other nations, or to ally themselves with neighboring powers?” - Dr. Jose Rizal
  32. 32. Professor Hans Rosling 200 countries, 200 years, 4 minutes - Global Health History from “The Joy of Stats” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo
  33. 33. Alma Ata, 1978 The International Conference on Primary Health Care calls for urgent action by all governments, all health and development workers, and the world community to protect and promote the health of all the people of the world by the year 2000.
  34. 34. From Beaglehole and Bonita, 2012
  35. 35. Glasgow, Scotland (deprived suburb) 54 India 61 Philippines 65 Korea 65 Lithuania 66 Poland 71 Mexico 72 Cuba 75 US 75 UK 76 Glasgow, Scotland (affluent suburb) 82 Life expectancy at birth (men) (WHO World Health Report 2006; Hanlon,P.,Walsh,D. & Whyte,B.,2006)
  36. 36. LEB over 80 years IMR less than 10 MM less than 15 LEB under 60 years IMR over 90 MM over 150 Source: Dr. Ramon Paterno, University of the Philippines
  37. 37. • Doctor • Pathologist • Biologist • Politician • First to recognize leukemia • Elucidated embolism • Founded “Social Medicine” Rudolf Virchow
  38. 38. Do we not always find the diseases of the populace traceable to defects in society? Dr. Rudolf Virchow Father of Social Medicine Social Production of Disease
  39. 39. • Prosperity • Education • Liberty Remedy for Epidemics?
  40. 40. Social Determinants of Health • Conditions in the social, physical, and economic environment in which people are born, grow, live, work, and age, including access to health care • Policies, programs, and institutions • Social structure, community factors
  41. 41. Globalization • Economic; trade • Cultural diffusion • Knowledge and technology transfer • Global village/family • Interdependence versus inequalities • Globalization of risk factors
  42. 42. Champagne Glass of Inequality From UNDP Human Development Report 1992 as cited by http://thesocietypages.org/graphicsociology/2009/05/27/champagne-glass-distribution-of-wealth/
  43. 43. Social injustice is killing people on a grand scale. WHO Commission on Social Determinants of Health
  44. 44. It is not inequalities that kill, but those who benefit from the inequalities that kill. Vicente Navarro Johns Hopkins University
  45. 45. 21st Century Global Health Challenges: Five Trends that Shape the Future 1 and 2: Demographic We are getting older and living in cities 3: Environmental The earth is heating up 4: Economic The economic center is shifting eastward 5: Epidemiologic We are sick with noncommunicable diseases (Center for Global Development)
  46. 46. Present Global Health Challenges Emerging infections • Climate Change • Noncommunicable Diseases • Neglected Tropical Diseases • Antibiotic resistance • Impoverishment due to catastrophic health spending
  47. 47. Rebalancing society Refashioning aid and NGOs as instruments of change Privileging sustainability above profitability Fair trade to replace free trade Domesticating feral capital Devising better metrics Working with all peoples in all nations, cities, and communities G-20 to replace G-8 on the world stage Recognizing semi-sovereigns Getting serious about urban situations Building solutions within networks Involving women and youth Enabling effective community action
  48. 48. Millennium Development Goals
  49. 49. Health in the Post-2015 Agenda
  50. 50. • Health as a Precondition/Contributor • Health as a Beneficiary • Health as an Indicator Health and Sustainable Development
  51. 51. Universal Health Coverage
  52. 52. Trade and Health
  53. 53. Lancet-UiO Commission on Global Governance for Health Promoting inter-generational dialogue
  54. 54. The Future Walks Among Us! “Any useful idea about the future must appear to be ridiculous!”
  55. 55. “The doctor of the future will give no medicine, but will interest his patients in the care of the human frame, ind diet, and in the cause and prevention of disease.” Thomas Alva Edison
  56. 56. Create one ‘ridiculous’ idea about the future of health in 2040. Submit on Wednesday, March 19!
  57. 57. What is your
  58. 58. Take Home Lessons: LU 3 and beyond • Remember your history! • Continue being aware of the present – which is history a second later! • Aim to be part of history!
  59. 59. “Vision without action is merely a dream. Action without vision just passes time. Vision WITH action can change the world.” Joel Barker
  60. 60. Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is mystery. Today is a gift That is why it is called PRESENT!
  61. 61. "Health is not everything, but without health everything is nothing.“ Arthur Schopenhauer German Philosopher
  62. 62. Thank you very much!

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