The Future of Health

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Lecture given to pre-medical students in the University of the Philippines last March 2011

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The Future of Health

  1. 1. The Futureof Health Ramon Lorenzo Luis Rosa Guinto President, Asian Medical Students’ Association-Philippines Doctor of Medicine Class of 2012 University of the Philippines Manila
  2. 2. IDC History of Medicine• Lectures, lectures, lectures!• Papers, papers, papers!• Visit at Co Tec Tai Museum• Show and Tell!• Motherly care from Doc Nina
  3. 3. History• History – “Histoire” – Inquiry• Kasaysayan – “Saysay” – Meaning• Elements of History – 5W’s and 1H• Methods of Studying History• Perspectives in Looking at History
  4. 4. Saysay ng Paggaling Kasaysayanng Magagaling A Brief History of World Medicine
  5. 5. History of World Medicine PRE-HIPPOCRATIC (River-Valleys to Greece)
  6. 6. History of World MedicinePOST-HIPPOCRATIC(Romans toMiddle Ages)
  7. 7. History of World Medicine MODERN MEDICINE (Renaissance to 21st Century)
  8. 8. Saysay ng Paggaling CONCEPT OF DISEASE AND ILLNESS SYSTEMS OF DIAGNOSIS
  9. 9. Kasaysayan ng Magagaling TREATMENT METHODS AND DRUGS INNOVATORSAND PRACTITIONERS
  10. 10. A Briefer History of WorldMedicine
  11. 11. 2000 B.C. “Here, take this root.”
  12. 12. 1,000 B.C. “The root is heathen. Take this prayer.”
  13. 13. 1850 A.D.“That prayer is superstition. Take this potion.”
  14. 14. 1940 A.D. “That potion is snake oil. Take this pill.”
  15. 15. 1985 A.D.“That pill is ineffective.Take this antibiotic.”
  16. 16. 2000 A.D. “That antibiotic is artificial. Here, take this root.” Dr. Den Bovy, Immortality, 1999
  17. 17. Why Study History of Medicine?
  18. 18. Why Study History of Medicine?• Understand the present• Learn from past mistakes• Gain inspiration•See the future!
  19. 19. I Ka Wa Ma Mua, Ka Wa Ma Hope The Future is in the Past!
  20. 20. Can you see the future?• Are you ready/trained?• Is your society ready?• How does it look to you?
  21. 21. How can you see the future?
  22. 22. How can you see the future? CREATE IT!
  23. 23. Predict the future?• Futurists cannot predict the future• They invent preferred futures!• Opening minds to possible futures
  24. 24. Seeing Futures – 3 Scales• Future as it emerges – The moment, present – Tactics, flow• Medium Range – Strategy, planning• Longer, imaginable, preferred vision – What Could Be (Novelties) – 50 years? 100 years?
  25. 25. Four Generic Alternative Futures• Continued Growth• Collapse• Disciplined Society• Transformational Society
  26. 26. WHAT’S NEXT?CONTINUED GROWTH?
  27. 27. WHAT’S NEXT? COLLAPSE?
  28. 28. WHAT’S NEXT?A DISCIPLINED SOCIETY?
  29. 29. WHAT’S NEXT?A TRANSFORMATIONAL SOCIETY?
  30. 30. The Joy of Stats Hans Rosling Karolinska Institutet
  31. 31. WHAT’S NEXT?CONTINUED GROWTH?
  32. 32. What isHEALTH?
  33. 33. The Constitution of WHO, 1948“a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity a fundamental human right”
  34. 34. Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion, 1986 “a resource for everyday life, not the objective of living a positive concept emphasizing social and personal resources, as well as physical capacities”
  35. 35. Alma Ata Declaration, 1978“The Conference strongly reaffirms that health is a fundamental human right”“The existing gross inequality in the health status of the people particularly between developed and developing countries as well as within countries is politically, socially and economically unacceptable”
  36. 36. Rudolf Virchow remedy for epidemics was: “prosperity, education & liberty”Doctor, Pathologist, Biologist, Politician: first to recognizeLeukemia, elucidated embolism, founded “Social Medicine”founded discipline of Anthropology,
  37. 37. What is the state of GLOBAL HEALTH today?
  38. 38. 70 Average Life Expectancy of Filipinos (in years)80,000Filipino Babies dyingof PREVENTABLEcauses ANNUALLY
  39. 39. MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE Per 100,000 Livebirths; 2002 UNDP Revision Country 1985-2002 Philippines 170 Thailand 36 Malaysia 30 South Korea 20 Japan 8 Italy 7 Spain 0 More than 3,000 Filipina mothers die UNNECESSARILY annually
  40. 40. LEB under 60 years IMR over 90 MM over 150LEB over 80 yearsIMR less than 10MM less than 15
  41. 41. Safe Water and Sanitation “Sanitation generally refers to the provision of facilities and services for the safe disposal of human urine and feces.” (WHO)
  42. 42. Access to Health Care 23% government59%out ofpocket 18% Shared- Risk Schemes Including National Health Insurance (PhilHealth)
  43. 43. Estrad Aquino Ramos a ArroyoEducation 12.3 15.5 18.7 15.1Health 3.1 2.6 2.4 1.8Housing 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4Defense 6.1 6.7 5.6 5.0Debt service (interest only) 40.0 25.3 19.2 25.2
  44. 44. Provision of Essential Drugs There are more than 16,000 registered medicine in the country……but 70% of Filipinos have no access toessential drugs. WHO World Medicines Situation, 2004
  45. 45. TRIPLE BURDEN OF DISEASE
  46. 46. Let’s play a game!INTERPRET THE DRAWINGS!
  47. 47. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India
  48. 48. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India
  49. 49. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India
  50. 50. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India
  51. 51. Source: Ravi Narayan, SOCHARA, India
  52. 52. The Future Walks Among Us!“Any useful idea about the future must appear to be ridiculous!”
  53. 53. “The doctor of the future will give no medicine, but willinterest his patients in the care of the human frame, ind diet, and in the cause and prevention of disease.” Thomas Alva Edison
  54. 54. Create one ‘ridiculous’ idea about the future of health in 2040.
  55. 55. Young People: Partners for HealthYoung People’s Recommendations for PHC
  56. 56. Young People: Partners for Health• We strongly reaffirm the definition of health as a “complete state of physical, mental, and social wellbeing and not merely the absence of disease and infirmity.”• For us, health equates to a complete state of wellbeing through the achievement of human rights.• Young people need to be at the forefront of primary health care efforts Young people [need to] get involved as PARTNERS in primary health care NOW and in the future.
  57. 57. The Power of Young People“The youth arethe hope of the Fatherland.” Dr. Jose Rizal National Hero of the Philippines
  58. 58. Fathers of Social Medicine
  59. 59. What is your
  60. 60. Take Home Lessons: LU 3 and beyond• Remember your history!• Continue being aware of the present – which is history a second later!• Aim to be part of history!
  61. 61. “Vision without action is merely a dream. Action without vision just passes time. Vision WITH action can change the world.” Joel Barker
  62. 62. Yesterday is history.Tomorrow is mystery. Today is a giftThat is why it is called PRESENT!
  63. 63. Thank You VeryMuch!

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