Predict the future?• Futurists cannot predict the future• They invent preferred futures!• Opening minds to possible futures
Seeing Futures – 3 Scales• Future as it emerges – The moment, present – Tactics, flow• Medium Range – Strategy, planning• Longer, imaginable, preferred vision – What Could Be (Novelties) – 50 years? 100 years?
Four Generic Alternative Futures• Continued Growth• Collapse• Disciplined Society• Transformational Society
The Constitution of WHO, 1948“a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity a fundamental human right”
Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion, 1986 “a resource for everyday life, not the objective of living a positive concept emphasizing social and personal resources, as well as physical capacities”
Alma Ata Declaration, 1978“The Conference strongly reaffirms that health is a fundamental human right”“The existing gross inequality in the health status of the people particularly between developed and developing countries as well as within countries is politically, socially and economically unacceptable”
Rudolf Virchow remedy for epidemics was: “prosperity, education & liberty”Doctor, Pathologist, Biologist, Politician: first to recognizeLeukemia, elucidated embolism, founded “Social Medicine”founded discipline of Anthropology,
70 Average Life Expectancy of Filipinos (in years)80,000Filipino Babies dyingof PREVENTABLEcauses ANNUALLY
MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE Per 100,000 Livebirths; 2002 UNDP Revision Country 1985-2002 Philippines 170 Thailand 36 Malaysia 30 South Korea 20 Japan 8 Italy 7 Spain 0 More than 3,000 Filipina mothers die UNNECESSARILY annually
LEB under 60 years IMR over 90 MM over 150LEB over 80 yearsIMR less than 10MM less than 15
Safe Water and Sanitation “Sanitation generally refers to the provision of facilities and services for the safe disposal of human urine and feces.” (WHO)
Access to Health Care 23% government59%out ofpocket 18% Shared- Risk Schemes Including National Health Insurance (PhilHealth)
The Future Walks Among Us!“Any useful idea about the future must appear to be ridiculous!”
“The doctor of the future will give no medicine, but willinterest his patients in the care of the human frame, ind diet, and in the cause and prevention of disease.” Thomas Alva Edison
Create one ‘ridiculous’ idea about the future of health in 2040.
Young People: Partners for HealthYoung People’s Recommendations for PHC
Young People: Partners for Health• We strongly reaffirm the definition of health as a “complete state of physical, mental, and social wellbeing and not merely the absence of disease and infirmity.”• For us, health equates to a complete state of wellbeing through the achievement of human rights.• Young people need to be at the forefront of primary health care efforts Young people [need to] get involved as PARTNERS in primary health care NOW and in the future.
The Power of Young People“The youth arethe hope of the Fatherland.” Dr. Jose Rizal National Hero of the Philippines