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SoundWave2015
Table of Contents
01 TEST PLAN IDENTIFIER 2
02 INTRODUCTION 2
03 TEST ITEMS 2
04 SOFTWARE RISK ISSUES 3
05 FEATURES TO BE TESTED 3
06 FEATURES NOT TO BE TESTED 4
07 APPROACH, CRITERIA & REQUIREMENTS 5
07.A Android Mobile Application 5
07.B Web Application 9
07.C System/Integration & Acceptance 12
08 TEST DELIVERABLES 15
09 REMAINING TEST TASKS 16
10 ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS 16
11 STAFFING AND TRAINING NEEDS 16
12 RESPONSIBILITIES & SCHEDULE 17
13 PLANNING RISKS AND CONTINGENCIES 18
14 APPROVALS 18
15 GLOSSARY 20
MASTER TEST PLAN
01 TEST PLAN IDENTIFIER
SW-MTP-001
02 INTRODUCTION
This is the Master Test Plan for the Android based SoundWave
Application project. This plan will cover those items and
elements directly and indirectly related to the operation and
functionality of the application. Its focus is to ensure that the
SoundWave Mobile application and the associated Web-based
application functionally operate at a level acceptable to the
design and scope originally envisioned while leaving room for
enhancements and improvements to further increase
functionality and security.
The project will consist of the following test plans whose
details are outlined in Section 08 of this document and further
defined throughout:
· Application (Mobile App and Web App)
· System/Integration & Acceptance
This 8 week course provides for a strict project timeline with
the first three weeks being dedicated to introductions, group
formation and project planning. The final week is dedicated to
peer review. This leaves 4 weeks for development and testing;
dictating that much of the testing will be performed in parallel
with development. However, acceptance testing will be
primarily reserved for the final week of the 4 week period.
There will be little if any time for plan deviation or adding of
additional features. Provided time permits for the latter,
additional formalized testing plans will not be incorporated
except as they apply to the functionality of the project to ensure
no negative aspects have been introduced in regard to meeting
the original project objectives.
03 TEST ITEMS
The following items are to be tested:
· SoundWave Mobile Application
· SoundWave Web-based Application
NOTE: Test Harness creation
In the process of testing the application an html based webpage
utilizing JavaScript may be used as a test harness. The interface
may be utilized in order to generate requests, and to modify the
parameters of those requests. This will save the tester time
when attempting to test various request cases.
This interface may also provide a plain text display area for
validation of any text or application JSON (JavaScript Object
Notation) which is returned from the web server. This test
harness is to be used for validation of the external
responsiveness of the application API interface. This test
harness can be used in the integration test phase, after the
server side code has been unit tested.
04 SOFTWARE RISK ISSUES
There are a number of critical areas and operational risks
associated with this project, some of which are outside the
control of the applications involved. Therefore all of these
areas must be verified to conform to a minimal or acceptable
level of performance.
A. Launching and closing the application: The user should be
able to repeatedly launch and close the application on their
mobile device without utilizing unnecessary resources or
leaving residual elements within the system after being closed
that may cause system instability or crashes.
B. User Registration: The registration of a user from a mobile
device should properly update the registration database. The
user registration must be validated against duplication of
critical PII within the registered user database.
C. Registration List and Contact List: The registration database
itself will be housed on a separate server maintained by a third
party. Appropriate availability, backup and recovery of the
server and data must be verified.
D. Sound File recording, compression and playback: The user
should be able to successfully record a message from their
mobile device when selecting a contact from their contact list.
Compression of that audio for transmission purposes should
minimize quality playback issues and should not introduce
corrupted files.
E. Sound File sending and receiving: Audio files should
distribute freely and successfully across the SoundWave
application system with minimal delay. Wireless carrier
network reliability should be verified to distribute audio files
without interference from traffic prioritization patterns or other
issues that may cause the files to be delayed or become blocked
unnecessarily or beyond a reasonable scope.
05 FEATURES TO BE TESTED
The following is a list of features that will be the focus of the
test plan during testing of the application system:
A. New or Modify User Registration
B. Add & Delete Contact
C. Send & Receive Audio File (i.e. recording and playback)
06 FEATURES NOT TO BE TESTED
The following is a list of features that will not be specifically
addressed during testing of the application system. Indirect
testing efforts will encapsulate these areas and serve to prove
their functionality:
A. Registered User Database
B. Audio File Cloud Storage Server
C. Audio File Metadata Database
07 APPROACH, CRITERIA & REQUIREMENTS
The following are the tests to be performed both during and
after the development cycle of the entire system application to
ensure that all project deliverables have been met. These tests
will also indirectly ensure that the application databases and
cloud server operate as required by pulling information from
and storing information to them.07.A Android Mobile
Application
The following test cases will ensure the operation of the
Android mobile application performs as expected.
Lightweight Requirements List
General
REQ-SWV-001 An Android application named SoundWave
SHALL be created.
REQ-SWV-002 SoundWave SHALL support Android Operating
System 4.0 and greater.
REQ-SWV-003 SoundWave MAY support Android OS 2.3 and
greater.
Sound Recording
REQ-SWV-004 SoundWave SHALL have the ability to record
and save sound files.
REQ-SWV-005 SoundWave MAY have the ability to stream
audio to another client application in near-real time.
Connectivity
REQ-SWV-006 SoundWave SHALL allow for recorded sound
files to be posted to a web application.
REQ-SWV-007 SoundWave SHALL include envelope
information to be included in files posted to the web application
(see REQ-SWV-006).
REQ-SWV-009 SoundWave SHALL be capable of downloading
sound files from a web application.
REQ-SWV-010 SoundWave SHALL maintain a connection with
the web application and react in near-real time to incoming
messages.
REQ-SWV-011 Near-real time SHALL be defined as less than
10 seconds for the purposed of the SoundWave application.
REQ-SWV-012 SoundWave SHALL communicate with the web
application via HTTP.
User Configuration
REQ-SWV-013 SoundWave SHALL allow the user to configure
contacts.
REQ-SWV-014 SoundWave contacts SHALL consists of a
display name and email address.
REQ-SWV-015 SoundWave contacts email addresses SHALL be
used to uniquely identify other users of the application.
REQ-SWV-016 SoundWave contacts SHOULD be customizable
with a picture associated with the contact.
REQ-SWV-030 SoundWave SHOULD provide a configuration
option to store queued sound message or play them as they
arrive.
EQ-SWV-017 SoundWave SHALL support a simple password
authentication system.
User Interface
REQ-SWV-018 SoundWave SHALL implement a simple user
interface which displays configured contacts.
REQ-SWV-019 SoundWave SHALL allow users to long hold on
contacts configured in the user interface to record and transmit
sound files to the selected contact.
REQ-SWV-020 SoundWave record and transmit actions SHALL
take no more than one UI press and release.
REQ-SWV-021 Messages waiting in the SoundWave application
SHALL be clearly visible in the user interface for the associated
contact.
Test Specifications and Procedures for Android Application
Test Name: AAT-01: Send a sound message
Description: Transmit a sound message to a user with
SoundWave main screen.
Requirement(s): SWV-REQ 006, REQ-SWV-019, REQ-
SWV-020
Prerequisites: The user is a registered SoundWave user with
registered contacts already configured.
Setup: Install SoundWave on an Android phone. Follow
account registration and contact creation test plans to configure
multiple contacts.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
Open the sound wave application.
The main user activity is displayed showing existing contacts.
2
Tap and hold on the picture of a contact.
The picture associated with the contact should become visibly
highlighted in synchronization with the long-hold action.
3
While continuing to hold the picture of the contact, begin to
speak into the phone’s microphone.
The picture of the contact remains highlighted as the user
speaks the voice message.
4
After completion of the voice message, release the long hold of
the contact picture.
The picture of the contact returns to the normal un-highlighted
state and a short alert sound is heard as the sound message is
sent.
Test Name: AAT-02: Listening to a sound message Queued
Mode
Description: This test case describes the act of listening to a
sound message from another user with SoundWave. The
message is received while the receiving user does not have the
SoundWave application running in the foreground of the phone
so the message is queued for playback.
Requirement(s): SWV-REQ 009, REQ-SWV-019, REQ-
SWV-020
Prerequisites: Two android phones with SoundWave are
required. The users are a registered SoundWave user with
registered contacts already configured.
Setup: Install SoundWave on two Android phones. Follow
account registration and contact creation test plans to configure
multiple contacts. Both phones should have a registered contact
for the account associated with the other phone. Label one
Phone A and one Phone B.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
Open SoundWave on Phone A.
SoundWave opens and displays the main activity with contacts
displayed.
2
Verify that contact information for Phone B exists in the main
activity for Phone A.
Phone B contact information is visible.
3
Tap and hold on the picture of the Phone B contact.
The picture associated with the contact should become visibly
highlighted in synchronization with the long-hold action.
4
While continuing to hold the picture of the Phone B contact,
begin to speak into the phone’s microphone speaking the
message “Phone A message to phone B queued mode”.
The picture of the contact remains highlighted as the user
speaks the voice message.
5
After completion of the voice message, release the long hold of
the Phone B contact picture.
The picture of the contact returns to the normal un-highlighted
state and a short alert sound is heard as the sound message is
sent.
6
Open SoundWave on Phone B.
SoundWave opens and displays the main activity with contacts
displayed. The contact associated with Phone A is displayed and
shows an overlaid icon indicator denoting that message is
waiting from that contact.
7
Tap the Phone A icon with the overlaid indicator once.
The message “Phone A message to phone B queued mode” is
played.
Test Name: AAT-03: Listening to a sound message Near-
real-time Mode
Description: This test case describes the act of listening to a
sound message from another user with SoundWave. The
message is received while the receiving user has the
SoundWave application running in the foreground of the phone
so the message played immediately.
Requirement(s): SWV-REQ 009, REQ-SWV-019, REQ-
SWV-020
Prerequisites: Two android phones with SoundWave are
required. The users are a registered SoundWave user with
registered contacts already configured.
Setup: Install SoundWave on two Android phones. Follow
account registration and contact creation test plans to configure
multiple contacts. Both phones should have a registered contact
for the account associated with the other phone. Label one
Phone A and one Phone B.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
Open SoundWave on Phone A.
SoundWave opens and displays the main activity with contacts
displayed.
2
Open SoundWave on Phone B.
SoundWave opens and displays the main activity with contacts
displayed.
3
Verify that contact information for Phone B exists in the main
activity for Phone A and that the contact information for Phone
A exists in the main activity for Phone B.
Contact information is visible for each phone.
4
On Phone A, Tap and hold on the picture of the Phone B
contact.
The picture associated with the contact should become visibly
highlighted in synchronization with the long-hold action.
5
On Phone A, while continuing to hold the picture of the Phone
B contact, begin to speak into the phone’s microphone speaking
the message “Phone A message to phone B real time”.
The picture of the contact remains highlighted as the user
speaks the voice message.
6
On Phone A After completion of the voice message, release the
long hold of the Phone B contact picture.
Simultaneous results:
On Phone A the picture of the contact returns to the normal un-
highlighted state and a short alert sound is heard as the sound
message is sent.
On Phone B the Message “Phone A message to phone B real
time” is heard within a few seconds.
07.B Web Application
The following test cases will ensure the operation of the web-
based application performs as expected.
Test Specifications and Procedures for Web Application: User
Integration
Test Name: WAT-01-UI: getInfo general
Description: Testing getinfo() function of the REST interface
web application. This function will be used to retrieve all
information from the web application. It will be used during
user registration to verify that the email is unique, and then to
register the user with user with appropriate information, also to
add contacts, and get and store message data.
(e.g. http://application.com/getUserInfo?user=12345)
Requirement(s): Information is retrievable from the web
application.
Prerequisites: Android application is connected to web server
through REST interface and data exists in appropriate database
tables.
Setup: Query the database table directly to get desired
information.
(e.g. SELECT * FROM (Table) WHERE (Field)=X)
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
Request is made through Android application, or through test
harness.
(e.g. http://soundwave.com/getContactInfo?contact=Steve)
Info JSON is returned to the Android application or test
harness.
2
Compare the JSON schema to the expected schema.
The schema number and type of fields match the required
schema.
3
Compare the field values for the particular object to the initial
database query.
CASE 1: All fields match.
CASE 2: userExists should be false. Other Info fields would
have no requirements for their value in this case.
Test Name: WAT-02-UI: getUserInbox external
Description: A get Inbox Info request is made.
(e.g. http://application.com/getUserInbox?user=12345)
Requirement(s): User inbox info is retrievable from the web
application
Prerequisites: The user database table is accessible.
Setup: Query the database table directly to prove the
test case.
(e.g. SELECT * FROM inboxTable WHERE user=12345)
Caveats: Security for this feature IS NOT a requirement and
thus will not be tested. More specifically, inbox information
for any user can be retrieved from the API if the user ID is
known.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
Initiate appropriate request within the test harness (e.g.
http://application.com/getUserInbox?user=12345)
User info JSON is returned to the test harness
2
Compare the JSON schema to the expected schema TBD.
The schema number and type of fields matches the required
schema
3
Compare the field values for the particular user to the initial
database query.
CASE 1: All fields should match, such as the user’s email
address, etc.
CASE 2: userExists should be false. Other userInbox fields
would have no requirements for their value in this case.
Test Name: WAT-03-UI: getMessage external
Description: A get message request is made.
For example
(http://application.com/getMessage?message=12345
Requirement(s): Message info is retrievable
Prerequisites: The message info exists in the appropriate
database table and points to the appropriate file.
Setup: Have a pre-set message to be returned via the query,
know the format and contents of the voice message.
Caveats: Security for this feature IS NOT a requirement and
thus will not be tested. More specifically, message information
for any user can be retrieved from the API, if the message id is
known.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
Initiate appropriate request within the test harness (e.g.
http://application.com/getMessage?message=12345)
Message info JSON is returned as well as the binary data
representing the voice message to the test harness
2
Utilize the test harness or appropriate tool to open(play) the
voice message
The message is playable and represents the expected content.
3
Check the JSON data accompanying the file (if it exists) and
ensure that it is valid and matches the file/ voice message info
in the database.
All fields should match, per the database.
Test Specifications and Procedures for Web Application: Unit
Testing
Test Name: WAT-01-UT: message storage / database update
test.
Description: Testing the storing of a message into cloud
storage and database.
Requirement(s): User info is retrievable. Message info is
retrievable. Database tables are writable. Cloud storage
directories are writable.
Prerequisites: The sending user and target user(s) exist.
Setup: Create an audio file.
Steps:
Step
Operator/ System Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
Operator initiates Message send request using created voice file.
Message info JSON is created based on file metadata;
Message_Distro JSON is created based on requested targets
(message recipients) and binary data representing the audio file
are sent to the server.
2
System moves file into an auto generated directory and appends
Message info JSON with file location (path).
File appears in cloud storage in the directory specified by the
system.
3
System inserts Message info JSON into MESSAGE table and
auto generates MESSAGE_ID.
Table MESSAGE contains record matching Message info JSON.
4
MESSAGE_ID is appended to Message_Distro info JSON and
inserted into table MESSAGE_DISTRO.
Table MESSAGE_DISTRO contains a record for each target and
matches Message_Distro JSON.
07.C System/Integration & Acceptance
For this project, System and Integration testing is virtually
identical to Acceptance testing and therefore shall be performed
as a singular testing requirement.
Test Specifications and Procedures for User Acceptance Testing
Test Name: UAT-01: User Registration
Description: User registers their email address with
SoundWave using the Android App.
Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device
running Android. Device is connected to the internet.
Prerequisites: User has a valid email address.
Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection
exists; and that the user has a valid email address.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
User clicks ‘Register’
System displays registration form.
Prompt: "Please enter your information.”
2
User fills in form with their information (First Name, Last
Name, Email Address and Password) and then user clicks
‘Submit’.
System displays processing message and checks to see if the
email exists.
CASE 1: email exists
Prompt: "Email already exists. Click Ok to continue."
CASE 2: email doesn’t exist
Prompt: “Registration Successful. Click Ok to continue."
3
User Clicks ‘Ok’.
System displays SoundWave main Screen.
Test Name: UAT-02: Add Contact
Description: User adds a contact to their account.
Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device
running Android. Device is connected to the internet.
Prerequisites: User's intended contact has a registered email.
Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection
exists; and that the intended contact's email is already
registered.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
User clicks 'Add Contact'
System displays add contact form.
Prompt: "Please enter contact's email."
2
User fills in form with contact’s Email Address and then user
clicks ‘Submit’.
System displays processing message and checks to see if the
email exists:
CASE 1: email exists
Prompt: "Contact Added. Click Ok to continue."
CASE 2: email did not exist
Prompt: "User does not exist. Please try again. Click Ok to
continue."
3
User Clicks ‘Ok’.
System displays SoundWave main Screen.
Test Name: UAT-03: Send Message
Description: User sends a message to one of their existing
contacts.
Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device
running Android. Device is connected to the internet. Device
has a functioning microphone.
Prerequisites: User has at least one valid contact.
Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection
exists; that the User has at least one valid contact; and the
device has a functioning microphone.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
User clicks and holds contact 'example'.
System sounds Start Recording notification. System displays
REC icon. System initiates microphone and begins recording.
2
User speaks into microphone to create message.
System continues recording.
3
User releases contact 'example'.
System sounds Stop Recording notification. System stops
displaying REC icon.
Prompt: "Message sent." (fades out)
System displays Contact page.
Test Name: UAT-04: Listen to Received Message
Description: User plays/listens to a message they have
received.
Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device
running Android. Device is connected to the internet. Device
has functioning speakers.
Prerequisites: User has at least one received message and
system displays a number on the user's contact who has sent a
message to the user.
Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection
exists; that the device has functioning speakers; and the User
has at least one received message (may need to be sent by the
tester).
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
User clicks on the contact with a pending message.
System initiates playback.
After playback System reduces pending message count on icon
by one; If zero remove icon.
Test Name: UAT-05: Delete Contact
Description: User deletes an existing contact.
Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device
running Android. Device is connected to the internet.
Prerequisites: User has at least one contact.
Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection
exists; and the User has at least one contact.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
User clicks ‘Settings’.
System displays Settings Menu.
2
User clicks ‘Manage Contacts’ from Menu.
System displays Contact Management screen.
3
User clicks on a contact
System displays Contact Menu.
4
User chooses 'Delete' from Contact Menu.
System prompt: "Are you sure you want to delete this contact
(Yes/No)?”
5
User chooses ‘Yes’.
System displays message "Contact Deleted." System then
displays Contact Management screen.
Test Specifications and Procedures for Operational Acceptance
Testing
Test Name: OAT-01: Automated mass user registration
Description: Test runs script to register 100 - 1000 Users in
quick succession.
Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device
running Android. Device is connected to the internet.
Prerequisites: Testing script installed on test device.
Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection
exists; and that the script is initiated properly.
Steps:
Step
Operator Action
Expected Results
Observed Results
Pass / Fail
1
Tester initiates User Registration script.
System processes the requested number of user registration
requests.
System Prompt "Test Complete. Click Ok to continue."
2
Tester clicks 'Ok'.
System displays main screen.
3
Tester accesses User Registration database.
Requested number of new users registered with no errors.
08 TEST DELIVERABLES
The following is a list of items to be delivered as part of this
plan.
· Application Test Plan (Mobile Application and Web
Application)
· System/Integration & Acceptance Test Plan
09 REMAINING TEST TASKS
Below is list of the required tasks for this test plan and their
status:
TASK
LEAD(s)
STATUS
Android Mobile App Test Plan
Joseph Keefe (Files & Sound)
Plans have been provided and posted.
Web-based App Test Plan
Brian Greeson (Files)
Steve Gubenia (Info)
Plans have been provided and posted.
System / Integration & Acceptance Test Plan
Chad Calkins
Plans have been provided and posted.
010 ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS
The following elements are required to support the overall
testing effort at all levels of the Android SoundWave
Application project:
A. Access to mobile devices with Android OS 4.0 or later
installed. Devices down to Android OS 2.3 should be able to
install and utilize the application. However, these devices will
not be fully supported by the application software. Each device
needs to have an active data plan or internet access and be
capable of 512Kbps internet speeds.
B. Access to fully managed internet based server system capable
of operating PHP and / or Java servlets and MySQL version 5.5
or higher. The minimum system requirements for the server are
as follows:
SPECIFICATIONS
PARTICULARS
OS
Red Hat Enterprise Linux (RHEL) 6
CPU
Intel Core i5 – 4 cores
RAM
8 GB
Storage
1 TB
Bandwidth
4-8 Mbps
C. Access to a cloud server, the database management system,
registered user database and the sound file database housed on
the server.
011 STAFFING AND TRAINING NEEDS
Staffing for the team consists of the seven project participants
detailed on the cover of this document. Each team member
comes with a variation of skill sets acquired from multiple
sources consisting of curriculum, job requirements and personal
knowledge. Team members will be leveraged for their strengths
to lead aspects of the project well suited for their knowledge
base and will be tasked to train and/or assist other team
members in these areas when needed. Outside of any expertise
for specific development and testing processes, team members
will be expected to obtain requisite knowledge and training on
their own initiative in order to ensure project success.
012 RESPONSIBILITIES & SCHEDULE
The team is led by Joseph Keefe and decisions regarding the
project will be decided by the entire project team, as listed in
the approvals section. Decisions will move forward with the
unanimity of the project team and in some instances simple
majority agreement. In the event that consensus is elusive, the
team lead (project manager) will be the deciding factor.
Responsibilities for the team are aligned with scheduling and
are detailed below. The 4 week development and testing period
is outlined and as stated many aspects of testing detailed in this
test plan will be performed in parallel with the development
cycle. Also keep in mind that responsibilities are tentative and
subject to change based on need, timelines, skill-sets and
availability:
TASK NAME
START
FINISH
RESOURCE NAMES
SoundWave & Server Project
8/23/15
10/4/15
Project Team
Design
Web App Design & Testing
9/6/15
9/13/15
Stephen Gubenia
Web App Design & Testing
9/6/15
9/13/15
Chad Calkins
Web App Prototype
9/6/15
9/13/15
Brian Greeson
Android App Design & Testing
9/6/15
9/13/15
Joe Keefe
Android App Prototype
9/6/15
9/13/15
Lookman Omisore
System Design & Testing
9/6/15
9/13/15
John Copeland
App Design & Testing
9/6/15
9/13/15
Charles Hedberg
Phase I
Web App Registration Module
9/13/15
9/20/15
Brian Greeson, Stephen Gubenia
Web App File Upload Phase 1
9/13/15
9/20/15
Chad Calkins
Android App File upload Phase 1
9/13/15
9/20/15
Joe Keefe
Android App Contact UI
9/13/15
9/20/15
Lookman Omisore
Android App Contact Page
9/13/15
9/20/15
Charles Hedberg
Execute & Update Test Plans
9/13/15
9/20/15
John Copeland
Phase II
Web App File Upload Phase 2
9/20/15
9/27/15
Brian Greeson, Stephen Gubenia
Android File Upload Phase 2
9/20/15
9/27/15
Joe Keefe
Android App Registration Page
9/20/15
9/27/15
Lookman Omisore
Execute Android Test Plans Contact UI
9/20/15
9/27/15
Charles Hedberg
Execute Android Test Plans Registration
9/20/15
9/27/15
John Copeland, Joe Keefe
Phase III
Web App Final & Acceptance Testing
9/27/15
10/4/15
Brian Greeson, Chad Calkins, Stephen Gubenia
Android App Final & Acceptance Testing
9/27/15
10/4/15
Joe Keefe, Lookman Omisore, Charles Hedberg, John Copeland
013 PLANNING RISKS AND CONTINGENCIES
Minimal risk is associated with this project as external
resources that have been chosen are highly reliable and have
high availability. In the event that these resources become
unavailable for unforeseen reasons, others will be chosen, with
negligible or minimal impact to project deliverables, as there
are multiple external resource options to choose from that will
accommodate the project and its features.
014 APPROVALS
The following individuals are responsible for approving project
procession and completion.
TEAM MEMBER
APPROVAL STATUS
Joseph Keefe – Project Manager/Android Developer
proceed
Steve Gubenia – Document Manager/Web Developer
proceed
Lookman Osimore –Android Developer
proceed
Chad Calkins – Web Developer
proceed
Brian Greeson – Web Developer
proceed
Charles Hedberg - Tester / Documentation / Java Developer
proceed
John Copeland – Tester / Documentation / System Developer
proceed
015 GLOSSARY
TERM
DEFINITION
Cloud Computing
A colloquialism used to describe a variety of different
computing concepts that involve any number of computers that
are connected through a medium (typically the Internet). Cloud
computing is a jargon term without a commonly accepted
nontechnical definition. In science, cloud computing is a
synonym for distributed computing over a network which means
the ability to run a program on several connected computers
simultaneously. The terms popularity is attributed to its use in
marketing to sell hosted services in the sense of application
service provisioning that run client server software on a remote
location.
Contact
A family, friend, coworker or acquaintance that is a SoundWave
registered user.
Database
A structured collection of data on a computer system organized
to facilitate retrieval and modification.
Database Management System
Software that handles the creation, definition, storage, retrieval,
and maintenance, of data and databases.
Mobile Application
A software application developed specifically for use on small,
wireless computing devices, such as smartphones and tablets,
rather than desktop or laptop computers.
Project Team
The project team consists of all team members including
Android developers, Web application developers, Testers,
Researchers, Advisors, Reviewers and Documenters. Most team
members are performing multiple roles.
Registration
The act or process of being entered on an official list or
directory.
Registered User
A user of the SoundWave system that has an account. Can be
general user, a user with elevated permissions, or administrator.
REQ
Main sequence software requirement
Server
A computer that provides services to other computers or to
people.
SoundWave
Application name which comprises the Web Server Application
and the Android Mobile Application.
SWS
Sub sequence requirements identifier for SoundWave Web
Server Application
SWV
Sub sequence requirements identifier for SoundWave Android
Application
Table
A collection of records in a database.
Web(-based) Application
An application in which all or some parts of the software are
downloaded from the Web each time it is run within the user's
Web browser.
Web Team
Web Team will consist of team members working to develop the
REST interface of the SoundWave application.
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SoundWave2015Table of Contents01TEST PLAN IDENTIFIER202.docx

  • 1. SoundWave2015 Table of Contents 01 TEST PLAN IDENTIFIER 2 02 INTRODUCTION 2 03 TEST ITEMS 2 04 SOFTWARE RISK ISSUES 3 05 FEATURES TO BE TESTED 3 06 FEATURES NOT TO BE TESTED 4 07 APPROACH, CRITERIA & REQUIREMENTS 5 07.A Android Mobile Application 5 07.B Web Application 9 07.C System/Integration & Acceptance 12 08 TEST DELIVERABLES 15 09 REMAINING TEST TASKS 16 10 ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS 16 11 STAFFING AND TRAINING NEEDS 16 12 RESPONSIBILITIES & SCHEDULE 17 13 PLANNING RISKS AND CONTINGENCIES 18 14 APPROVALS 18 15 GLOSSARY 20 MASTER TEST PLAN 01 TEST PLAN IDENTIFIER SW-MTP-001 02 INTRODUCTION This is the Master Test Plan for the Android based SoundWave Application project. This plan will cover those items and elements directly and indirectly related to the operation and functionality of the application. Its focus is to ensure that the SoundWave Mobile application and the associated Web-based application functionally operate at a level acceptable to the design and scope originally envisioned while leaving room for
  • 2. enhancements and improvements to further increase functionality and security. The project will consist of the following test plans whose details are outlined in Section 08 of this document and further defined throughout: · Application (Mobile App and Web App) · System/Integration & Acceptance This 8 week course provides for a strict project timeline with the first three weeks being dedicated to introductions, group formation and project planning. The final week is dedicated to peer review. This leaves 4 weeks for development and testing; dictating that much of the testing will be performed in parallel with development. However, acceptance testing will be primarily reserved for the final week of the 4 week period. There will be little if any time for plan deviation or adding of additional features. Provided time permits for the latter, additional formalized testing plans will not be incorporated except as they apply to the functionality of the project to ensure no negative aspects have been introduced in regard to meeting the original project objectives. 03 TEST ITEMS The following items are to be tested: · SoundWave Mobile Application · SoundWave Web-based Application NOTE: Test Harness creation In the process of testing the application an html based webpage utilizing JavaScript may be used as a test harness. The interface may be utilized in order to generate requests, and to modify the parameters of those requests. This will save the tester time when attempting to test various request cases. This interface may also provide a plain text display area for validation of any text or application JSON (JavaScript Object Notation) which is returned from the web server. This test harness is to be used for validation of the external responsiveness of the application API interface. This test harness can be used in the integration test phase, after the
  • 3. server side code has been unit tested. 04 SOFTWARE RISK ISSUES There are a number of critical areas and operational risks associated with this project, some of which are outside the control of the applications involved. Therefore all of these areas must be verified to conform to a minimal or acceptable level of performance. A. Launching and closing the application: The user should be able to repeatedly launch and close the application on their mobile device without utilizing unnecessary resources or leaving residual elements within the system after being closed that may cause system instability or crashes. B. User Registration: The registration of a user from a mobile device should properly update the registration database. The user registration must be validated against duplication of critical PII within the registered user database. C. Registration List and Contact List: The registration database itself will be housed on a separate server maintained by a third party. Appropriate availability, backup and recovery of the server and data must be verified. D. Sound File recording, compression and playback: The user should be able to successfully record a message from their mobile device when selecting a contact from their contact list. Compression of that audio for transmission purposes should minimize quality playback issues and should not introduce corrupted files. E. Sound File sending and receiving: Audio files should distribute freely and successfully across the SoundWave application system with minimal delay. Wireless carrier network reliability should be verified to distribute audio files without interference from traffic prioritization patterns or other issues that may cause the files to be delayed or become blocked unnecessarily or beyond a reasonable scope. 05 FEATURES TO BE TESTED The following is a list of features that will be the focus of the test plan during testing of the application system:
  • 4. A. New or Modify User Registration B. Add & Delete Contact C. Send & Receive Audio File (i.e. recording and playback) 06 FEATURES NOT TO BE TESTED The following is a list of features that will not be specifically addressed during testing of the application system. Indirect testing efforts will encapsulate these areas and serve to prove their functionality: A. Registered User Database B. Audio File Cloud Storage Server C. Audio File Metadata Database 07 APPROACH, CRITERIA & REQUIREMENTS The following are the tests to be performed both during and after the development cycle of the entire system application to ensure that all project deliverables have been met. These tests will also indirectly ensure that the application databases and cloud server operate as required by pulling information from and storing information to them.07.A Android Mobile Application The following test cases will ensure the operation of the Android mobile application performs as expected. Lightweight Requirements List General REQ-SWV-001 An Android application named SoundWave SHALL be created. REQ-SWV-002 SoundWave SHALL support Android Operating System 4.0 and greater. REQ-SWV-003 SoundWave MAY support Android OS 2.3 and greater. Sound Recording REQ-SWV-004 SoundWave SHALL have the ability to record and save sound files. REQ-SWV-005 SoundWave MAY have the ability to stream audio to another client application in near-real time. Connectivity
  • 5. REQ-SWV-006 SoundWave SHALL allow for recorded sound files to be posted to a web application. REQ-SWV-007 SoundWave SHALL include envelope information to be included in files posted to the web application (see REQ-SWV-006). REQ-SWV-009 SoundWave SHALL be capable of downloading sound files from a web application. REQ-SWV-010 SoundWave SHALL maintain a connection with the web application and react in near-real time to incoming messages. REQ-SWV-011 Near-real time SHALL be defined as less than 10 seconds for the purposed of the SoundWave application. REQ-SWV-012 SoundWave SHALL communicate with the web application via HTTP. User Configuration REQ-SWV-013 SoundWave SHALL allow the user to configure contacts. REQ-SWV-014 SoundWave contacts SHALL consists of a display name and email address. REQ-SWV-015 SoundWave contacts email addresses SHALL be used to uniquely identify other users of the application. REQ-SWV-016 SoundWave contacts SHOULD be customizable with a picture associated with the contact. REQ-SWV-030 SoundWave SHOULD provide a configuration option to store queued sound message or play them as they arrive. EQ-SWV-017 SoundWave SHALL support a simple password authentication system. User Interface REQ-SWV-018 SoundWave SHALL implement a simple user interface which displays configured contacts. REQ-SWV-019 SoundWave SHALL allow users to long hold on contacts configured in the user interface to record and transmit sound files to the selected contact. REQ-SWV-020 SoundWave record and transmit actions SHALL take no more than one UI press and release.
  • 6. REQ-SWV-021 Messages waiting in the SoundWave application SHALL be clearly visible in the user interface for the associated contact. Test Specifications and Procedures for Android Application Test Name: AAT-01: Send a sound message Description: Transmit a sound message to a user with SoundWave main screen. Requirement(s): SWV-REQ 006, REQ-SWV-019, REQ- SWV-020 Prerequisites: The user is a registered SoundWave user with registered contacts already configured. Setup: Install SoundWave on an Android phone. Follow account registration and contact creation test plans to configure multiple contacts. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 Open the sound wave application. The main user activity is displayed showing existing contacts. 2 Tap and hold on the picture of a contact. The picture associated with the contact should become visibly highlighted in synchronization with the long-hold action. 3 While continuing to hold the picture of the contact, begin to speak into the phone’s microphone. The picture of the contact remains highlighted as the user speaks the voice message.
  • 7. 4 After completion of the voice message, release the long hold of the contact picture. The picture of the contact returns to the normal un-highlighted state and a short alert sound is heard as the sound message is sent. Test Name: AAT-02: Listening to a sound message Queued Mode Description: This test case describes the act of listening to a sound message from another user with SoundWave. The message is received while the receiving user does not have the SoundWave application running in the foreground of the phone so the message is queued for playback. Requirement(s): SWV-REQ 009, REQ-SWV-019, REQ- SWV-020 Prerequisites: Two android phones with SoundWave are required. The users are a registered SoundWave user with registered contacts already configured. Setup: Install SoundWave on two Android phones. Follow account registration and contact creation test plans to configure multiple contacts. Both phones should have a registered contact for the account associated with the other phone. Label one Phone A and one Phone B. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1
  • 8. Open SoundWave on Phone A. SoundWave opens and displays the main activity with contacts displayed. 2 Verify that contact information for Phone B exists in the main activity for Phone A. Phone B contact information is visible. 3 Tap and hold on the picture of the Phone B contact. The picture associated with the contact should become visibly highlighted in synchronization with the long-hold action. 4 While continuing to hold the picture of the Phone B contact, begin to speak into the phone’s microphone speaking the message “Phone A message to phone B queued mode”. The picture of the contact remains highlighted as the user speaks the voice message. 5 After completion of the voice message, release the long hold of the Phone B contact picture. The picture of the contact returns to the normal un-highlighted state and a short alert sound is heard as the sound message is sent. 6 Open SoundWave on Phone B. SoundWave opens and displays the main activity with contacts
  • 9. displayed. The contact associated with Phone A is displayed and shows an overlaid icon indicator denoting that message is waiting from that contact. 7 Tap the Phone A icon with the overlaid indicator once. The message “Phone A message to phone B queued mode” is played. Test Name: AAT-03: Listening to a sound message Near- real-time Mode Description: This test case describes the act of listening to a sound message from another user with SoundWave. The message is received while the receiving user has the SoundWave application running in the foreground of the phone so the message played immediately. Requirement(s): SWV-REQ 009, REQ-SWV-019, REQ- SWV-020 Prerequisites: Two android phones with SoundWave are required. The users are a registered SoundWave user with registered contacts already configured. Setup: Install SoundWave on two Android phones. Follow account registration and contact creation test plans to configure multiple contacts. Both phones should have a registered contact for the account associated with the other phone. Label one Phone A and one Phone B. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail
  • 10. 1 Open SoundWave on Phone A. SoundWave opens and displays the main activity with contacts displayed. 2 Open SoundWave on Phone B. SoundWave opens and displays the main activity with contacts displayed. 3 Verify that contact information for Phone B exists in the main activity for Phone A and that the contact information for Phone A exists in the main activity for Phone B. Contact information is visible for each phone. 4 On Phone A, Tap and hold on the picture of the Phone B contact. The picture associated with the contact should become visibly highlighted in synchronization with the long-hold action. 5 On Phone A, while continuing to hold the picture of the Phone B contact, begin to speak into the phone’s microphone speaking the message “Phone A message to phone B real time”. The picture of the contact remains highlighted as the user speaks the voice message. 6 On Phone A After completion of the voice message, release the
  • 11. long hold of the Phone B contact picture. Simultaneous results: On Phone A the picture of the contact returns to the normal un- highlighted state and a short alert sound is heard as the sound message is sent. On Phone B the Message “Phone A message to phone B real time” is heard within a few seconds. 07.B Web Application The following test cases will ensure the operation of the web- based application performs as expected. Test Specifications and Procedures for Web Application: User Integration Test Name: WAT-01-UI: getInfo general Description: Testing getinfo() function of the REST interface web application. This function will be used to retrieve all information from the web application. It will be used during user registration to verify that the email is unique, and then to register the user with user with appropriate information, also to add contacts, and get and store message data. (e.g. http://application.com/getUserInfo?user=12345) Requirement(s): Information is retrievable from the web application. Prerequisites: Android application is connected to web server through REST interface and data exists in appropriate database tables. Setup: Query the database table directly to get desired information. (e.g. SELECT * FROM (Table) WHERE (Field)=X) Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results
  • 12. Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 Request is made through Android application, or through test harness. (e.g. http://soundwave.com/getContactInfo?contact=Steve) Info JSON is returned to the Android application or test harness. 2 Compare the JSON schema to the expected schema. The schema number and type of fields match the required schema. 3 Compare the field values for the particular object to the initial database query. CASE 1: All fields match. CASE 2: userExists should be false. Other Info fields would have no requirements for their value in this case. Test Name: WAT-02-UI: getUserInbox external Description: A get Inbox Info request is made. (e.g. http://application.com/getUserInbox?user=12345) Requirement(s): User inbox info is retrievable from the web application Prerequisites: The user database table is accessible. Setup: Query the database table directly to prove the test case. (e.g. SELECT * FROM inboxTable WHERE user=12345)
  • 13. Caveats: Security for this feature IS NOT a requirement and thus will not be tested. More specifically, inbox information for any user can be retrieved from the API if the user ID is known. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 Initiate appropriate request within the test harness (e.g. http://application.com/getUserInbox?user=12345) User info JSON is returned to the test harness 2 Compare the JSON schema to the expected schema TBD. The schema number and type of fields matches the required schema 3 Compare the field values for the particular user to the initial database query. CASE 1: All fields should match, such as the user’s email address, etc. CASE 2: userExists should be false. Other userInbox fields would have no requirements for their value in this case. Test Name: WAT-03-UI: getMessage external
  • 14. Description: A get message request is made. For example (http://application.com/getMessage?message=12345 Requirement(s): Message info is retrievable Prerequisites: The message info exists in the appropriate database table and points to the appropriate file. Setup: Have a pre-set message to be returned via the query, know the format and contents of the voice message. Caveats: Security for this feature IS NOT a requirement and thus will not be tested. More specifically, message information for any user can be retrieved from the API, if the message id is known. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 Initiate appropriate request within the test harness (e.g. http://application.com/getMessage?message=12345) Message info JSON is returned as well as the binary data representing the voice message to the test harness 2 Utilize the test harness or appropriate tool to open(play) the voice message The message is playable and represents the expected content. 3 Check the JSON data accompanying the file (if it exists) and ensure that it is valid and matches the file/ voice message info in the database.
  • 15. All fields should match, per the database. Test Specifications and Procedures for Web Application: Unit Testing Test Name: WAT-01-UT: message storage / database update test. Description: Testing the storing of a message into cloud storage and database. Requirement(s): User info is retrievable. Message info is retrievable. Database tables are writable. Cloud storage directories are writable. Prerequisites: The sending user and target user(s) exist. Setup: Create an audio file. Steps: Step Operator/ System Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 Operator initiates Message send request using created voice file. Message info JSON is created based on file metadata; Message_Distro JSON is created based on requested targets (message recipients) and binary data representing the audio file are sent to the server. 2 System moves file into an auto generated directory and appends Message info JSON with file location (path). File appears in cloud storage in the directory specified by the system.
  • 16. 3 System inserts Message info JSON into MESSAGE table and auto generates MESSAGE_ID. Table MESSAGE contains record matching Message info JSON. 4 MESSAGE_ID is appended to Message_Distro info JSON and inserted into table MESSAGE_DISTRO. Table MESSAGE_DISTRO contains a record for each target and matches Message_Distro JSON. 07.C System/Integration & Acceptance For this project, System and Integration testing is virtually identical to Acceptance testing and therefore shall be performed as a singular testing requirement. Test Specifications and Procedures for User Acceptance Testing Test Name: UAT-01: User Registration Description: User registers their email address with SoundWave using the Android App. Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device running Android. Device is connected to the internet. Prerequisites: User has a valid email address. Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection exists; and that the user has a valid email address. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results
  • 17. Pass / Fail 1 User clicks ‘Register’ System displays registration form. Prompt: "Please enter your information.” 2 User fills in form with their information (First Name, Last Name, Email Address and Password) and then user clicks ‘Submit’. System displays processing message and checks to see if the email exists. CASE 1: email exists Prompt: "Email already exists. Click Ok to continue." CASE 2: email doesn’t exist Prompt: “Registration Successful. Click Ok to continue." 3 User Clicks ‘Ok’. System displays SoundWave main Screen. Test Name: UAT-02: Add Contact Description: User adds a contact to their account. Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device running Android. Device is connected to the internet. Prerequisites: User's intended contact has a registered email. Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection exists; and that the intended contact's email is already registered.
  • 18. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 User clicks 'Add Contact' System displays add contact form. Prompt: "Please enter contact's email." 2 User fills in form with contact’s Email Address and then user clicks ‘Submit’. System displays processing message and checks to see if the email exists: CASE 1: email exists Prompt: "Contact Added. Click Ok to continue." CASE 2: email did not exist Prompt: "User does not exist. Please try again. Click Ok to continue." 3 User Clicks ‘Ok’. System displays SoundWave main Screen. Test Name: UAT-03: Send Message Description: User sends a message to one of their existing contacts.
  • 19. Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device running Android. Device is connected to the internet. Device has a functioning microphone. Prerequisites: User has at least one valid contact. Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection exists; that the User has at least one valid contact; and the device has a functioning microphone. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 User clicks and holds contact 'example'. System sounds Start Recording notification. System displays REC icon. System initiates microphone and begins recording. 2 User speaks into microphone to create message. System continues recording. 3 User releases contact 'example'. System sounds Stop Recording notification. System stops displaying REC icon. Prompt: "Message sent." (fades out) System displays Contact page. Test Name: UAT-04: Listen to Received Message Description: User plays/listens to a message they have
  • 20. received. Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device running Android. Device is connected to the internet. Device has functioning speakers. Prerequisites: User has at least one received message and system displays a number on the user's contact who has sent a message to the user. Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection exists; that the device has functioning speakers; and the User has at least one received message (may need to be sent by the tester). Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 User clicks on the contact with a pending message. System initiates playback. After playback System reduces pending message count on icon by one; If zero remove icon. Test Name: UAT-05: Delete Contact Description: User deletes an existing contact. Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device running Android. Device is connected to the internet. Prerequisites: User has at least one contact. Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection exists; and the User has at least one contact. Steps: Step Operator Action
  • 21. Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 User clicks ‘Settings’. System displays Settings Menu. 2 User clicks ‘Manage Contacts’ from Menu. System displays Contact Management screen. 3 User clicks on a contact System displays Contact Menu. 4 User chooses 'Delete' from Contact Menu. System prompt: "Are you sure you want to delete this contact (Yes/No)?” 5 User chooses ‘Yes’. System displays message "Contact Deleted." System then displays Contact Management screen. Test Specifications and Procedures for Operational Acceptance Testing Test Name: OAT-01: Automated mass user registration
  • 22. Description: Test runs script to register 100 - 1000 Users in quick succession. Requirement(s): SoundWave is installed on mobile device running Android. Device is connected to the internet. Prerequisites: Testing script installed on test device. Setup: Tester must verify that a valid internet connection exists; and that the script is initiated properly. Steps: Step Operator Action Expected Results Observed Results Pass / Fail 1 Tester initiates User Registration script. System processes the requested number of user registration requests. System Prompt "Test Complete. Click Ok to continue." 2 Tester clicks 'Ok'. System displays main screen. 3 Tester accesses User Registration database. Requested number of new users registered with no errors. 08 TEST DELIVERABLES The following is a list of items to be delivered as part of this plan. · Application Test Plan (Mobile Application and Web Application)
  • 23. · System/Integration & Acceptance Test Plan 09 REMAINING TEST TASKS Below is list of the required tasks for this test plan and their status: TASK LEAD(s) STATUS Android Mobile App Test Plan Joseph Keefe (Files & Sound) Plans have been provided and posted. Web-based App Test Plan Brian Greeson (Files) Steve Gubenia (Info) Plans have been provided and posted. System / Integration & Acceptance Test Plan Chad Calkins Plans have been provided and posted. 010 ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS The following elements are required to support the overall testing effort at all levels of the Android SoundWave Application project: A. Access to mobile devices with Android OS 4.0 or later installed. Devices down to Android OS 2.3 should be able to install and utilize the application. However, these devices will not be fully supported by the application software. Each device needs to have an active data plan or internet access and be capable of 512Kbps internet speeds. B. Access to fully managed internet based server system capable of operating PHP and / or Java servlets and MySQL version 5.5 or higher. The minimum system requirements for the server are as follows: SPECIFICATIONS PARTICULARS OS Red Hat Enterprise Linux (RHEL) 6
  • 24. CPU Intel Core i5 – 4 cores RAM 8 GB Storage 1 TB Bandwidth 4-8 Mbps C. Access to a cloud server, the database management system, registered user database and the sound file database housed on the server. 011 STAFFING AND TRAINING NEEDS Staffing for the team consists of the seven project participants detailed on the cover of this document. Each team member comes with a variation of skill sets acquired from multiple sources consisting of curriculum, job requirements and personal knowledge. Team members will be leveraged for their strengths to lead aspects of the project well suited for their knowledge base and will be tasked to train and/or assist other team members in these areas when needed. Outside of any expertise for specific development and testing processes, team members will be expected to obtain requisite knowledge and training on their own initiative in order to ensure project success. 012 RESPONSIBILITIES & SCHEDULE The team is led by Joseph Keefe and decisions regarding the project will be decided by the entire project team, as listed in the approvals section. Decisions will move forward with the unanimity of the project team and in some instances simple majority agreement. In the event that consensus is elusive, the team lead (project manager) will be the deciding factor. Responsibilities for the team are aligned with scheduling and are detailed below. The 4 week development and testing period is outlined and as stated many aspects of testing detailed in this test plan will be performed in parallel with the development cycle. Also keep in mind that responsibilities are tentative and subject to change based on need, timelines, skill-sets and
  • 25. availability: TASK NAME START FINISH RESOURCE NAMES SoundWave & Server Project 8/23/15 10/4/15 Project Team Design Web App Design & Testing 9/6/15 9/13/15 Stephen Gubenia Web App Design & Testing 9/6/15 9/13/15 Chad Calkins Web App Prototype 9/6/15 9/13/15 Brian Greeson Android App Design & Testing 9/6/15 9/13/15 Joe Keefe Android App Prototype 9/6/15 9/13/15 Lookman Omisore System Design & Testing 9/6/15 9/13/15 John Copeland App Design & Testing 9/6/15
  • 26. 9/13/15 Charles Hedberg Phase I Web App Registration Module 9/13/15 9/20/15 Brian Greeson, Stephen Gubenia Web App File Upload Phase 1 9/13/15 9/20/15 Chad Calkins Android App File upload Phase 1 9/13/15 9/20/15 Joe Keefe Android App Contact UI 9/13/15 9/20/15 Lookman Omisore Android App Contact Page 9/13/15 9/20/15 Charles Hedberg Execute & Update Test Plans 9/13/15 9/20/15 John Copeland Phase II Web App File Upload Phase 2 9/20/15 9/27/15 Brian Greeson, Stephen Gubenia Android File Upload Phase 2 9/20/15 9/27/15 Joe Keefe
  • 27. Android App Registration Page 9/20/15 9/27/15 Lookman Omisore Execute Android Test Plans Contact UI 9/20/15 9/27/15 Charles Hedberg Execute Android Test Plans Registration 9/20/15 9/27/15 John Copeland, Joe Keefe Phase III Web App Final & Acceptance Testing 9/27/15 10/4/15 Brian Greeson, Chad Calkins, Stephen Gubenia Android App Final & Acceptance Testing 9/27/15 10/4/15 Joe Keefe, Lookman Omisore, Charles Hedberg, John Copeland 013 PLANNING RISKS AND CONTINGENCIES Minimal risk is associated with this project as external resources that have been chosen are highly reliable and have high availability. In the event that these resources become unavailable for unforeseen reasons, others will be chosen, with negligible or minimal impact to project deliverables, as there are multiple external resource options to choose from that will accommodate the project and its features. 014 APPROVALS The following individuals are responsible for approving project procession and completion. TEAM MEMBER APPROVAL STATUS Joseph Keefe – Project Manager/Android Developer
  • 28. proceed Steve Gubenia – Document Manager/Web Developer proceed Lookman Osimore –Android Developer proceed Chad Calkins – Web Developer proceed Brian Greeson – Web Developer proceed Charles Hedberg - Tester / Documentation / Java Developer proceed John Copeland – Tester / Documentation / System Developer proceed 015 GLOSSARY TERM DEFINITION Cloud Computing A colloquialism used to describe a variety of different computing concepts that involve any number of computers that are connected through a medium (typically the Internet). Cloud computing is a jargon term without a commonly accepted nontechnical definition. In science, cloud computing is a synonym for distributed computing over a network which means the ability to run a program on several connected computers simultaneously. The terms popularity is attributed to its use in marketing to sell hosted services in the sense of application service provisioning that run client server software on a remote location. Contact A family, friend, coworker or acquaintance that is a SoundWave registered user. Database A structured collection of data on a computer system organized
  • 29. to facilitate retrieval and modification. Database Management System Software that handles the creation, definition, storage, retrieval, and maintenance, of data and databases. Mobile Application A software application developed specifically for use on small, wireless computing devices, such as smartphones and tablets, rather than desktop or laptop computers. Project Team The project team consists of all team members including Android developers, Web application developers, Testers, Researchers, Advisors, Reviewers and Documenters. Most team members are performing multiple roles. Registration The act or process of being entered on an official list or directory. Registered User A user of the SoundWave system that has an account. Can be general user, a user with elevated permissions, or administrator. REQ Main sequence software requirement Server A computer that provides services to other computers or to people. SoundWave Application name which comprises the Web Server Application and the Android Mobile Application. SWS Sub sequence requirements identifier for SoundWave Web Server Application SWV Sub sequence requirements identifier for SoundWave Android Application Table A collection of records in a database. Web(-based) Application
  • 30. An application in which all or some parts of the software are downloaded from the Web each time it is run within the user's Web browser. Web Team Web Team will consist of team members working to develop the REST interface of the SoundWave application. page2 Scanned by CamScanner t h e i r c o m i n g s u p r e m a c y . I n h i s 2 0 0 8 b o o k H o B l a a n d C n ow Jd e d , C h i n e s e o v e r l o r d s a n d t h e O n e - C h i l d p o l i c y i s o f t e n g i v e n c r e d i t f o r f r e q u e n t l y
  • 31. l e c t u r e u s a b o u t h o w w e w i l l e v e n t u a l l y s u b m i t t o o u r n e w s p i l l w a y c a p a c i t y i s 4 1 m i l l i o n c u b i c f e e t p e r s e c o n d . ) O u r w i s e m e n c a p a c i t y o f 4 o o , o o o c u b i c f e e t p e r s e c o n d . T h e T h r e e G o r g e s D a m ’ s S t i t n e i a s l o n g a s t h e H o o v e r D a m . T h e H o o v e r D a m h a s a
  • 32. s p i l l w a y c o m p r e h e n d i n t h e a b s t r a c t . (T h e T h r e e G o r g e s D a m , f o r i n s t a n c e , i s C h i n a ’ s p u b l i c w o r k s p r o je c t s a r e s o m a s s i v e t h a t t h e y ’ r e d i &i c u l t t o o f t h r e a d t o i p h o n e s . F u t u r i s t i c m a g l e v t r a i n s c r i s s c r o s s t h e l a n d s c a p e . b u i l d i n g s . T h e n a t i o n s i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r m a k e s e v e r y
  • 33. t h i n g f r o m s p o o l s t h e 2 0 0 8 B e i j i n g O l y m p i c s y o u s a w a c o u n t r y D 1l l of shi n moder ni st a f t e r a l l . C h in a s u r e l o o k s l i k e t h e f u t u r e . I f y o u t u n e d i n t o a n y o f h a v i n g A m e r i c a n s h e w t o a r o u g h e q u i v a l e n t i s n ’ t s u c h a b a d t h i n g 1 , o v e r t h r e e d e c a d e s . So m u c h s o t h a t y o u m i g h t t h i n k t h a t
  • 34. 1 ) i g h t - t h i n k i n g W e s t e r n e r s h a v e l a u d e d C h i n a ’ s O n e - C h i l d Po l i c y > e ˜ h t y A m e r i c a ’ s F a l li n g CHAPTER ONE Scanned by CamScanner o f b i r t h s p c R w o m a n i s a m a z i n g l y l o w b e l o w o n e b a b y p e r l i f e t i m e
  • 35. " ; s h a n g h a i , a n d T i a n ji n a m o n g t h e m - i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e a v e r a g e n u m b e r E b c r s t a d t n o t e s t h a t , " I n s o m e m a jo r p o p u l a t i o n c e n t e r s - B e i j i n g , 1 . 3 , d e p e n d i n g o n w h o ’ s d o i n g t h e t a b u l a t i n g . D e m o g r a p h e r N i c h o l a s i s a C h i n e s e f e r t i l i t y r a t e t h a t n o w s i t s s o m e w h e r e b e t w e e n I . 9 a n d t o t h e o c c a s i o n a l f o r c e d a b o r t i o n a n d s t e r i l i z a t i o n . 3 T h e o v e r a l l r e s u l t
  • 36. c o n l i s c a t i o n o f b e l o n g i n g s t o d i s m i s s a l f r o m w o r k . I n a d d i t i o n , t h a t i s , g o v e r n m e n t i n s t i t u t e d p e n a l t i e s . Sa n c t i o n s r a n g e d f r o m h e a v y f i n e s t o b a b y D v e y e a r s a f t e r t h e f i r s t . A n y m o r e t h a n t w o , h o we v e a n d t h e t i o n s . I n r u r a l a r e a s , c o u p l e s w e r e o f t e n a l l o w e d t o h a v e a s e c o n d e m p l o y e e s w e r e f o r b i d d e n f r o m h a v i n g anot he w i t h v e r y f e w e x c e c l e a r a n c e . ) A f t e r h a v i n g o n e c
  • 37. h i l d , u r b a n r e s i d e n t s a n d g o v e r n m e n t t h i s p r o v i s i o n ; c o u p l e s c a n n o w h a v e o n e c h i l d w i t h o u t g o v e r n m e n t p e r m i s s i o n f r o m l o c a 0 o & i c i a l s f i r s t . (I n 2 0 0 2 , t h e g° VCmment r e l a x e d O n e - C h i l d , c o u p l e s w a n t i n g a b a b y w e r e o r i g i n a l l y r e q u i r e d t o o b t a i n T h e p ° l i c y i s m o r e c o m p l i c a t e d t h a n i t s n a m e s u g g
  • 38. e s t s . U n d e r g ° v e r n m e n t , s o i n 1 9 7 9 i t f o r m u l a t e d t h e O n e - C h i l d Po l i c y . t r j s f e r t i l i t y r a t e d r o p p e d f r o m 5 • 5 t o 2 . 7 . z T h a t w a s n ’ t e n o u g h f o r t h e b e t w e e n b i r t h s . A n d h a m e r c h i l d r e q o v e r a l l . 1n a d e c a d e , t h e c o u t o w a i t u n t i l l a t e r i n l i f e t o h a v e b a b i e s , p u t l o n g e r . E r i o d s o f t i m e m e n t b e g a n u r g i n g a c o u r s e o f " ! at ezw f e w
  • 39. " - i n s t r u c t i n g w o m e n c h i l d r e n d u r i n g h e r l i f e t i m e . B e g i n n i n g i n 1 9 7 0 , t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r B e t w e e n 1 9 5 o a n d 1 9 7 o , t h e a v e r a g e C h i n e s e w o m a n h a d r o u g h l y s i x The O r i g i n a l O n e - Child Po l i cy f a c t o r i e s , t r a i n s , a n d d a m s . b e je s u s o u t o f a n y o n e p a y i n g a t t e n t i o n t o m o r e t h a n t h e b u i l d i n g s , a s l o w - r o l l i n g d e m o g r a p h i c c a t a s t r o p h e t h a t s h o u l d s c a r e t h e l i v i n g C h il d Po l i c y . R a t h e r t h a n s a v i n g C h i n a f r o m c a l m i t y , i t h a s c r e a t e d
  • 40. B u t F r i e d m a n a n d o t h e r S i n o p h i l e s m i s u n d e r s r a n d C h i n a ’ s O n " a p ° p u l a t i o n c a l a m i t y . " fo r i n s t a n c e , T o m F r i e d m a n l a u d e d O n e - C h i l d f o r s a v i n g C h i n a f r o m Wha t t o Ex p e c t W h e n N o O n e f s Ex p e ct i n g 1 3 Scanned by CamScanner gr a d u a l . Dcc?e, S e t t l i n g a t 2 . 2 2 . In . 19 4 - 0 .
  • 41. I O A t t h e e n d o f t h e S e c o n d t h r e e t o f r e e - f i ll , r e a c hi n g 2 . 87 i n 1 9 4 o - a d r o p o f 5 6 p e r c e n t i n l e s s t h aí 1 O v e r t h e n e x t h a l F c c n t u r y , h o w e v e r , t h e W c k e/ t y r a t t 冒 el i t ke p t s e p a r a t e l y b y r a c e . )
  • 42. : , l a t i v e l y h i g h f o r b la c k s , a t . 6 . 56 . (A l l e a r l y p o p u l a t i o n n u m b e r s w e 【c By 18 9 o , t h e f e w t y r a t e f o r w h i t e s h a d f a l l e n - t o j 8 7 , w hile st ay i n g t h e f e n i l i t y r a t e f o r bi r i cans , f r o m t h e 1 8 5 o s , pu t s i t a t 7 • 9 o • r a t e f o r w h i w m e r i c a n s w a s 7 . o 4 ’ T h " " l i . s t r el i abl m c e n s u s w i t h o t h e r d a t a s e t s t o d e t e r m i n e t h a t i n i 8 0 0 , t hc f e r t i l i t y ye a r s a g o , e c o n o m i s t M i c h a e l H a i n e s c o m
  • 43. b i n e d d a t a f r o m t h a t f i n t w h i c h o u r n e w l y - fo r m e d g o v e r n m e n t f i r s t c o n d u c t e d i n 17 9 o . 7 A fc w W $ e n t h e C o n s t i t u t i o n w a s f i r s t r a t i f i e d i t c a l l e d f o r a n a t i o n al c e n sm , A m e r i c a n f e r t i l i t y h a s b e e n h e a d e d s o u t h a l m o s t s i n c e t h e F o u n d i n g . Am erica n (Fert il it y) Hist o r y 1 0 1 ha r d e r - t h a n i t s o u n d s . t o h a v e m o r e b a b i e s , s t a r t i n g n o w . T h i s ,
  • 44. i t t u r n s o u t , i s h a r d e r - m u ch t h e s e u n p l e a s a n t s c e n a r i o s , a ll C h i n a h a s t o d o i s c o n v i n c e i t s c i t i z en s le g i t i m a t e p ° l i c y o p t i o n f o r t h e C h i r +e s e C o m m u n i s t P a r t y . To a v o i d o l An p e o p l e . 6 A p r o p ° s a l t h a t s o u n d s m o n s t r o u s t o o u r e a r s m a y b c a in t e n t i o n a l l y s t a r v
  • 45. e d t o d e a t h b e t w e e n 2 o m i l l i o n a n d 4 o m i l l i o n o f i t s a b l c , bu t r e m e m b e r t h a t t h i s i s a r e g i m e t h a t , w i t h i n l i v i n g m e m o r y , o f c o u r s e , t h e r e i s a t h i r d o p t i o n : T h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n m e nt h e s e c o n d r i s k s r e v o l u t i o n . w i l l be f o r c e d t o c i t h c t : (I ) s u b s t a n t i a l l y
  • 46. c u l spcndng n Su c h ar eas B 2 0 5 o t h c a g e s t r u c t u r e i n c h i n a w i l l b n v o t v o r k e r s t o s u pp ° f t e a c h r e t i r e e . ’ B e c a 14 A m eri c a7 Fa l l i n g F e r t i l it y Scanned by CamScanner
  • 47. w o r l d , h e r e a r e s o m e n u m b e r s f r o m t h e 2 0 1 0 c e n s u s : I n i g g o , t h e r eT o g e t a s e n s e o f w h a t t h e s e d i f t c r i n g f e r t i l i t y r a t e s m e a n i n t h e r e a l f e r t i l i t y i n A m e r i c a i s t h a t i t ’ s s l i d i n g t o w a r d t h e n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e . W e ’ l lW n i c h s u g g e s t s , a s I m e n t i o n e d c a r l i e r , t h a t t h e t r o u b l e w i t h H i s p
  • 48. a n i cd e c l i n e a m o n g t h c r a c i a l c o h o r t s . ’ " ) I n 2 0 1 o , i t m m e t e d t o 2 . 3 5 • 2 0 0 9 . ’ " (T h i s 9 p e r c e n t d r o p b e t w e e n 2 0 0 7 a n d 2 0 0 9 w a s t h e l a r g e s t d • • ’ I ,r e a s o n : T h e H i s p a n i c r a t e d r o p p e d , t o 2 . 7 3
  • 49. - w h e r e i t s t a y e d t h r o u g h 14, q f e r t i l i t y f o r n o n - H i s p a n i c w h i t e s a c t u a l l y t i c k e d u p w a r d t o 2 . o 5 . 1 5 T h eBy 2 o o o t h e o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y r a t e h a d d i p p e d t o 2 . o 6 , e v e n t h o u g h h a d a T F R o f z . o o t hat yea w h i l e t h e H i s p a n i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e w a s z . 9 6 .
  • 50. ’ " y . I n i g g o , A m e r i c a ’ s f e r t i l i t y r a t e w a s 2 . o 8 , w h i c h s e e m e d i d e a l . B u ta t o o k . s u r g e d f r o m t h e i 9 8 o s t h r o u g h t h e e a r l y p a r t o f t h e 2 o o o s . k t ’ s h a v ew a s 1a r g e l y d r i v e n b y t h e h i g h f e r t i l i t y o f i m m i g T W - h o s e n u m b e r s2 0 0 7 b e f o r e sl t 1mpi ng b a c k t o 2 . o 1 i n 2 0 0 9 . •
  • 51. B u t a g a i n , t h a t r e b o u n d t o I . 8 . In . i g 8 o , a 5 o p e r c e n t d e c l i n t i n a s i n g l e g e n e r a t i o n . Si n c e t h a t e n d o f t h e B a b y B o o m ), t h e f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n t h e U n i t m e s d r o p p e d A m e r i c a f o l l o w e d s u i t . F r o m a c o m b i n e d T F R o f 3 . 7 m I 9 6 0 W ei t s l i p p e d f r o m 3 • 8 t o I . 8 ; i n W e s t G
  • 52. e r m a n y i t f e l l f r o m 2 . 3 t o I . 5 • i n s t a n c e , t h e f e r t i h t y r a t e w e n t f r o m 3 . ï i n i 9 6 o t o i . 6 i m 9 8 o ; , i n Cad a 7 - ¢ " J ’ t r i a l i z c d n a t i o n - t h e f e r t i l i t y r a t e p l u m m e t e d . I n t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , f o r = t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , Ja p a n , a n d W e s
  • 53. t e r n E u r o p e - i n e v e r y s i n g l e i n d u s - ì r l . , r a t e i n A m e r i c a - a n d t h e r e s t o f t h e w o r l d - w e n t b u s t . I n C a n a d a , i f ! t u r a l m o m e n t t h a t f o l l o w e d d u r i n g t h e i 9 6 ? s a n d I 9 7 o s , t h e f e r t i l i t y s t i u Y e t d e s p i t e i t s s i z e , t h e B a b y B o o m p r o v e d t e m p o r a w I n t h e c u b lo a t s o u r d e m o g r a p
  • 54. h i c p r o f i l e . i t y - i t l a s t e d a n ( n t i r e g e n e r a t i o n , c r e a t i n g a p o p Ld a t i o n b u l g e t h a tB a b y B o o r n s o e x c e p t i o n a l w a s n ’ t j u s t i t s m a g n i t u d ( , b u t i t s l o n g c: he i g h t i . n I 9 6 o o t 3 . 5 3 t o r w m t e s a n a ¢ 5 2 r o r D i a c 7 s . - w n a t m a a g u l c b a b l y k n o w q u i t e a l o t . F o r 2 o y e a r s , t h e f e r t i l i t y r a t e s p i k e d , r e a c h i n g wor l d W « , A m e
  • 55. r i c a e x p e r i e n c e d t h e B a b y B o o m , a b o u t w h i c h y o u Wha t t o Ex p e «t W h e n N o O n e ’ s Ex p e ct i n g 1 5 Scanned by CamScanner r a t e w i l l t a k e a n o s e d i v e . a b o u t A m e r i c a n h i s t o r y s u g g e s t s t h a t i t w i l l - t h e n o u r I . 9 3 f e r t i l i ty g r o u p c o n t i n u e s f a l l i n g t o w a r d t h e n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e - a n d c v e r } t h i n g p o p u l a t i o n p r o f i l e i s s o d e p e n d e n t o n H i s p a n i c f e r t i l i t y t h a t i f t h i s
  • 56. w i t h H i s p a n i c i m m i g r a n t s a n d t h e i r c h i l d r e n . T h e p r o b l e m i s t h at o ur m i g h t t h i n k . t h e p r o b l e m i s n t t h a t a m e r i c a i s a b o u t t o b e o v e m m T h i s s h o u l d s c a r e y o u q u i t e a l o t , t h o u g h n o t f o r t h e r e a so n s y ou g r o u p t h a t m a k e s u p o n l y 1 6 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o u n t w o f A m e r i c a ’ s t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h w a s t h e r e s u l t o f t h e l a b o r s o f a o f t h e b o r d e r . 2 o w w c h m e a n s t h a t , o v e r t h e l a s t d e c a d e , 3 o pe r c en t n e t o f 7 . o 2 m i l l i o n p e o
  • 57. p l e i m m i g r a t e d t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s f r o m so u th M o s t o f t h a t i n c r e a s e w a s d u e t o f e r t i l i t y . B e t w e e n 2 o o o a n d 2 0 1o , a <- ..! - , i , ’ " - , • 9 p e r e c n t o f o u r t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . " B y 2 o X " t l n m e r i c a , r i r a i •
  • 58. . / . , w C r c Z Z . 35 I I 1LU 1 U H P C O P l e 0 1 i 1spani c o r i . . _ • : _ t ’ , , ’ ?* e e 2 2 3 5 m i l l i o n - e o I f - - u t : 16 Am e r i c a 7 Fa l l i n g Fe r t i l i t y L Scanned by CamScanner g a l l u p r e p o r t s t h a t 2 . 5 c h i l d r e n i s t h e i d e a l f a m i l y s i z e f o r a m e r i c a n s , i t pe r e c n t o f w o m e n w o u n d u
  • 59. p w i t h s m a l l , o r n o , f a m i l i e s . So w h e n , n ˛ , - > o { o n l y o n e c h i l d ; a n d 3 4 4 p e r c e n t h a d t w o c h i l d r e n . 2 4 A l l t o l d , 7 1 . 7 - : c o m p l e t e d t h e i r c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s w i t h n o c h i l d r e n ; 1 6 . 9 p e r c e n t h a d 2 . . { • h a v e z e r o , o n e , o r t w o c h i l d r e n . B u t i n r e a l i t y , 2 o . 4 p e r c e n t o f w o m e n T ( 7 o v c u d e s i r e d . I n 2 0 1 1 , 5 8 p e r c e n t o f w o m e n s a i d t h a t a n i d e a l f a m i l y
  • 60. w o u l d acual f e r t i h ’ I n p r a c d c e , a c t u a l f e r t i h t y i s o f t e n n i u c h l o w e r t h a n c ; r w 4 k r a i s i n g c h i l d r e n , t h e « d e s i r e d f e r t i l i t ) Y ’ m e t r i c i s a n Lt p w a r d l i m i t o n . . ; ; ’ ’ , ’ " a n d a b o r t i o n , i n c r e a s e d e d u c a t i o n a l d e m a n d s , m d t h e r i s i n g c o s t o f .
  • 61. ° 4 . ), I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o r e m e m b e r t h a t w i t h e a s y a c c e s s t o b i r t h c o n t r o l c . . 4 . . ! t h a t a f a m i l y w i t h t h r e e o r m o r e c h i l d r e n i s i d e a l . 2 3 ) %. . J n o f a m i l y a t a l l ) w a s i d e a l . T o d a y o n l y 3 3 p e r c e n t o f A m e r i c a n s t h i n k w h e n r o u g N y 6 o p e r c e n t o f A m e r i c a n s t h o u g
  • 62. h t a s m a l l e r f a m i l y (o r m o r e . T h e p e r c e n t a g e w a n t i n g s m a l l e r f a m i l i e s g r e w u n t i l t h e I 9 9 o s , w a n t e d z e r o , o n e , o r t w o c h i l d r e n a n d o n l y 4 3 p e r c e n t w a n t e d t h r e e o r d e c l i n e i n d e s i r e d f a m i l y s i z e b e g a n . B y 1 9 7 3 , 4 8 p e r e c n t o f A m e r i c a n s a g
  • 63. e s r e m a i n e d r e a s o n a b l y s t a b l e u n t i l t h e l a t e i 9 6 o s . I n 19 6 7 , a s u d d e n " p e r c e n t s a i d t h a t z e r o , o n e , o r n v o c h il d r e n w e r e i d e a l . T h o s e p e r c e n t - • / . LJ pe r c e n t o f A m e r i c a n s s a i d t h a t t h r e e o r m o r e c h i l d r e n w e r e i d e a l ; 3 4 " i d e a l f a m i l y s i z e " s i n c e 1 9 3 6 . W n e n G a l l u p D r s t a s k e d t h e q u e s t i o n , 6 4 r e i t y " T h e G a l l u p o r g
  • 64. a n i z a t i o n h a s b e e n a s k i n g A m e r i c a n s a b o u t t h e i r A n o t h e r q u a n t i t a t i v e a t o r h a s b e e n h e d e l i n e o f " d e s i r e d f e r t i l - . - . - ] . J ? h a p p i l y - b e y o n d m e a s u r e . a n e n o r m o u s d D v e r o f c u r r e n t f e r t i l i t y
  • 65. t h a t i t s c o n t r i b u t i o n i s - a g a i n , e v e r y I , o o o l i v e b i r t h s t o d a y . 2 2 T h i s v e r y h a p p y d e v e l o p m e n t i s s u c h a n d n u t r i t i o n v a s t l y r e d u c e d i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y - t o j u s t 5 • 9 8 d e a t h s f o r di e d d u r i n g i n f a n c y . " s t e a d y i m p r o v e m e n t s i n m e d i c i n e , s a n i t a t i o n ,
  • 66. / ) : 2 o u t o f e v e r y 1 o w h i t e babi esi 3 • 4 o u t o f e v e r y 1 o b l a c k b a b i e s 3 / - ’ " i s f i r s t a n d f o r e m o s t a b o u t t h e d e c l i n e o f i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y . I n 1 8 5 o , I y , - ï B / c r e t e . St r i p p e d d o Lv n t o i t s m o s t b a s i c c a u s e , o u r d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y B u t t h a t k i n d o f t a l k i s g a u z y , s o l e t ’ s s t a r t w i t h s o m e t h i n g c o n - ! 7 ? c J
  • 67. t o Lv a r d f e w e r . . c h i l d r e n r . . w h ic h m e a n s t h a t t h e r e i s s - g b o u t m d e n i t y t s e 1f h t e d s f A . / t h o u g h t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s c o u l d n o t b e m o r e d i f t e r e n t ; ゾ . " Wha t t o Ex p e ct W h e n N o o n e ’ s Ex p e c t i n g 1 7 Scanned by CamScanner Scanned by CamScanner (T he o t h e r t w o i n t h e b o t t o m t e n a r e W e s t
  • 68. V i r g i n i a a n d M i c h i g a n . ) : - e n n s : 1. Iv a n i a 194i a c c o u n t f o r e i g0 o f t h e t c n l o w e s t f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . (I . T4- ), M a s s a c h u s e t t s (I . 7 7 ) , N e w Y o r k (I . 89 ). C o n n e c t i c u t (I . 8 8 ) , a n d Ve r m o n t (I . 6 7 ), R h o d e I s l a n d (I . 7 3) , N e w H a m p s h i r e (I . 7 1), M a i n e w i t h t h e l o w e s t f e r t i l i t y a r e f o u n d m o s t l y i n t h e i n d u s t D a l i z e d N o r t h e a s t c u r i o u s , t h e o t h e r t h r e e a r e A l a s k a , H a w a i i , a n d N e b r a s k a - T he s t a t e s ì. X :
  • 69. > N e v a d a . 2 . 3 11, . A n d w o m . i n g (2 2 8 ) a r e a 1l i n t h e t o p t e n . (i n c a s e y o u ’ r c (2 . 6 o ), A r i z o n a (2 . 3n , i d a h o ), So u t h D a k o t a (2 . 35) , T e x a s (2 . 36 ) , X . fe r c n t i a l t e n d s t o m a t t e r a g r e a t d e a l n m e i c a n o l i t i a l l i f e . " X X *, ’ 2 . 0 1) a n d t h e l o w e s t (L i t h u a n i a , I . 2 7 ). 2 7 A s y o u m i g h t e x p e c t , t h i s d i f t h a n t h e g a p b e t w e e n t h e M g h e s t - f e r t i l i t y c o u n t r y i n E u r o p e (I r e l a n d ,
  • 70. t h e f e r t i l i t y g a p b e t w e e n U t a h a n d V e r m o n t i s p r o p o r t i o n a l l y l a r g e r I 6 T h a t ’ s a d i ff e r e n c e o f 5 5 p e r c e n t . O t o g i v e y o u a s e n s e o f s c a l e , t h e h i g h e s t T F R i n t h e l a n d , a t 2 . 6 o , w h i l e V e r m o n t h a d t h e . Io w e s t ,
  • 71. F e r t i l i t y v a r i e s w i d e l y w i t h i n t h e 5 o s t a t e s . I n 2 0 0 8 , r t e d a l l s o r t s o f m u n d a n e t h i n g s . L i k e p o l i t i c s . b e n e a t h o u r f e e t . O n c e y o u s t a r t l o o k i n g f o r i t , f e r t i l i t y h e l p s e x p l a i n o f A m e r i c a n f e r t i l i t y s o y o u c a n g e t a
  • 72. g l i m p s e o f t h o s e p l a t e s s h i f t i n g B e f o r e w e b e g i n d e l v i n g i n t o c a u s e s a n d e f t e c t s , l c e s t a k e a l i t t l e t o u r De m o g ra p h y a n d D e st i n y a n d w i l l b e f o r c e d t o c o n f r o n t t o m o r r o w . w o u l d d o w e l l t o u n d e r s t a n d h o w i t i n f l u e n c e s t h e w o r l d w e f a c e t o d a y d e s t i n % a n d w e s h o u l d b e c a r c D n e v e r t o c o n f u s e t h e t w o . B u t w e pl a t e s m o v i n g b e n e a t h t h e E a r t h ’
  • 73. s c r n s t . A g a i n , d e m o g r a p h y i s n o t t h e b r i l l i a n t d c m o g r a p h e r P h i l l i p L o n g m a n p u t s i t , li k e t h e t e c t o n i c o n i t , a n d i t s i n f l u e n c e o n t h e w o r l d , c a n b e h a r d t o s e e . F e r t i l i t y i s , a s I n g e n e r a l , t h a t ’ s h o w f e r t i l i t y w o r k s . B o t h t h e w o r l d s i n f l u e n c e e t c . B u t c u l t u r a l c h a n g e s a l s o c a r r y c o s t s . s o m e o f t h e s e c o s t s - l i k e t h e i n f l u e n c e o n f e r t i l i t y - a r e h i d d e n . e v e n i f s o c i e t y c o l l e c t i v e l y d e c i d e d t h a t i t w a n t e d t o . G e n i e s , b o t t l e s , a l s a n d s o c i e t y
  • 74. a t l a r g e . A n d i n a n y c a s e , t h e r e ’ s 1 1 o g o i n g b a c k n o w , Wha t t o Ex p e ct W h e n No o n e 7 Ex p e c t i n g 1 9 Scanned by CamScanner r a t e s a n d v o t i n g b e h a v i o r a r e r e a l , t h e n h o w c a n t h a t b e ? T h e e x p l an J ’ D e m o c r a t i c s t a t e s . I f s a i l e r ’ s d i r t g a p t h e o r y a n d t h e l i n k a g e o f f
  • 75. e r t i ü ty A m e i o f t h e h i g h e s t l a n d c o s t s i n t h e c o u n t r y a n d i s o n e o f t h e b l u e s t , m o s t r a t e - 2 . 1 5, r a n ki n g i t I 7 t h a m o n g t h e s t a t e s . Ye t C a l i f o r n i a h a s so n t e t h e c b r o a 1 b e g i n t o r e s o l v e . F o r i n s t a n c e , c a l i f o r n i a h a s a r e l a t i v e l y h i g
  • 76. h f c r t i liq ’ e v e r ) o n c e y o u u s e t h e f e r t i l i t y r a t e a s a l e n s , a l l k i n d s o f c o n t r a d i c t i o n s f o u n t h o u g h O b a m a w o n t h e g e n e r a l p o p u l a r v o t e b y 5 3 t o 4 6 p e r c e n t ), 3 c h i l d r e n , t a ki n g t h e m 5 i p e r c e n t t o 4 8 e c e t o v e r B r c k b a m a ( v n = o f t h e f e w g r o u
  • 77. p s Jo h n M c c a i n a c t u a l l y w o n w a s m a r r i e d v o t er s t h d o w ] w i t h t h e h i g h e s t f e r t i l i t y a m o n g n o n - H i s p a n i c w h i t e s . 3 ’ I n 2 0 0 8 , o n t p i c k w o m e n w e r e m a r r i e d t h e m o s t y e a r s o n a v e r a g e - a s w e l l a s t h e 19 st a t es w e ’
  • 78. v 1 i n 2 0 0 4 , P r e s i d e n t B u s h w o n t h e 2 5 s t a t e s w h e r e n o n - H is p a n i c w h i t e i n g Pe o p l e w i t h c h i l d r e n v o t e d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y R e p u b l i c a n . Fo r e x am p le, A g a i r f e r t i l i t y d r i v i n g p o l i t i c a l c h o i c e . Sa i l e r c a l l s t h i s t h e " d ir t g a p ’ M ar r i ed T h e C -
  • 79. c h o i c e . A r e i n s e p a r a b l e , w i t h t h e c o s t o f r e a l e s t a t e d r i v i n g f e r t i l i t y an d w a s o n e o f t h e I i r s t t o n o t i c e i s t h a t l a n d c o s t s , f e r t i l i t y , a n d po li t i a l l e a s t i n ß a t i o n i n h o u s i n g p r i c e s b e t w e e n I 9 8 o a n d 2 0 0 4 w ü a t S d a Sa i l e r r e p o r t s t h a t i n 2 0 0 4 , G e o r g e W . B u s h w o n t h e 2 6 s t a t e s w i 出 出 c t h e c o s t o f r e a l e s t a t e i s a n i m p o r t a n t d r i v e r i n
  • 80. p o l i t i c a l al i g n m en t . 3 o 1 h e c u l t u r a l d e m o g r a p h e r S t e v e S a i l « r m a k e s a p e r s u a s i v e c as e t h at f e r t i l i t y s t a t e s a r e h e a v i l y D e m o c r a t i c . V o f N e v a d a a n d H a w a i i ) R e p u b l i c a n s t r o n g h o l d s , w hil e t h e l owes 1 ヘ L u . c o m e s t o p o m l c s , t n c n 1 g n e s t - r e n u 1 t y s t a t e s a r e (w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o ns 4 ’ í
  • 81. o u r h ig h e r - f e r t i l i t y s t a t e s t e n d t o h a v e l o w e r l a n d c o s Ts r a n d hen ce , w n a t o t h e r t r e n d s c a n w e s e e i n t h e s e t w o g r o u p s o f s t a t es ) Well , 2o Am e rk a 7 Fa M n g Fe r t M t y . / , , ’ , . ’ . . .
  • 82. , : Scanned by CamScanner A m e r i c a n s s h u f n i n g a c r o s s t h e i r b o r d e r s . o f c o u n t r i e s w o u l d k i l l t o h a v e a s t e a d y s u p p l y o f M e x i c a n s a n d S o u t h t h e c h a l l e n g e s p r e s e n t e d b y o u r r e c e n t i m m i g r a t i o n e x p e r i e n c e , l o t s br o a d e r v i e w , t h e s e a r e a l l M g h
  • 83. - c l a s s p r o b l e m s t o h a v e . B e c a u s e f o r a l l e v e r y o n e m o r e i n s u l a r a n d l e s s e n g a g e d i n c i v i l s o c i e t y . 3 7 B u t i n t h e fo u n d - m u c h t o h i s d i s m a y - m a s s - s c a l e " d i v e r s i q Y ’ t e n d s t o m a k e w h o a r e n ° t c o l l e g e g r a d u a t e s t o e a r n a l i v i n g . A n d a s R o b e r t P u t n a m
  • 84. s o c i a l s e r v i c e s f o r t h o s e m o s t i n n e e d a n d m a k e s i t h a r d f o r n a t i v e s do w n w a r d p r e s s u r e a t t h e l o w e n d o f t h e w a g e s c a l e . I t p u t s s t r e s s o n pi c k o n l y t h e m o s t o b v i o u s f r o m t h e l i s t : I l l e g a l i m m i g r a t i o n c r e a t e s $. . ( - , P ˙ w e ’ v e ( x p e r i e n c e d f o r t h e l a s t 3 o y e a r s p r e s e n t s v e r y r e a l p r o b l e m s . T o . ( , in g H i s p a n i c p o p
  • 85. u l a t i o n . Cer t ai nl m a s s i m m i g r a t i o n o n t h e s c a l e 4 沪 - w " A ga i n , n o n e o f t h i s i s m e a n t a s f e a r - m o n g e r i n g a b o u t A m e r i c a ’ s g r o w - w ’ ° 1 U w & ’ The c a se o f t h e D i sa p p e a r i n g D e m o g r a p h i c M o m e n t u m ̌ ’ ’ ’ ò : . , - , 5o p e r c e n t o f t h e s t a t e ’
  • 86. s b i r t h s . 3 6 H i sp a n i c s w e r e 3 o p e r c e n t o f t h e s t a t e ’ s p o p u l a t i o n , b u t c o n t r i b u t e d fe c u n d i s C a l i f o r n i a ° s f o r e i g n - b o r n , H i s p a n i c p o p u l a t i o n ? I n 2 o o o , t o t a l s o f w h i c h i n c r e a s e d b y 5 o p e r c e n t b e t w e e n 1 9 8 2 a n d 1 9 9 7 . H o w i g g o . W n a t h a p p e n e d ? A n e x p l o s i o n o f i m m i g r a n t b i r t h s - t h e r a w 19 8 7 , by w h i c h t i m e i t w a s s t e a d i l y c l i m b i
  • 87. n g , g o i n g a s h i g h a s 2 . 5 i n W R h a d f a l l e n t o I . 9 . I t w o u l d r e m a i n b e l o w r e p l a c e m e n t l e v e l u n t i l t h e n 2 . 5) . 3 5 I t w a s a b o u t t o c a r e e n o v e r t h e c l i f t . B y 1 9 7 2 , C a l i f o r n i a s ha d a T F R o f z . 3 ( a L e a d y s l i g h t l y b e l o w t h e n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e , w h i c h w a s c a l i l b m i a , l e t ’ s p u l l b a c k a n d e x a m i n e t h e s t a t e ° s p a s t . I n 19 7 o , Cal i f or ni a To m o r e Dl y c o m p r e h e n d i m m i g r a t i o n ’ s i m p a c t o n f e r t i l i t y i n d e m o g r a p h i c g r o u p . t h e s t a t e h
  • 88. a s a n a b u n d a n c e o f H i s p a n i c s , w h o a r c a c o r e D e m o c r a t i c H is p a n i c s h a v e a T F R o f 2 . 33 . 3 4 Cai mi a’ s 2 . 1 5 r e a l l y m e a n s t h a t fe r ti l i t y r a t e : I n C a l i f o r n i a , . N o n _ H i s p a n i c w h i t e s h a v e a T F R o f I . 8 3 is N e w Y o r k , w i t h 2 1 p e r c e n t . ) T h e s e i m m i g r a n t s d r i v e u p t h e s t a t e s Th is i s , b y f i r , t h e h i g h e s t p e r c e n t a g e i n t h e c o u n t (T h e n e x t h i g h e s t t i o n i s t h a t
  • 89. 2 7 p e r c e n t o f C a l i f o r n i a n s a r e f o r e i g n - b o r n i m m i g r a n t s . 3 3 Wha t t o Ex p e d W h e n N o o n e 7 Ex p e ct i n g 2 1 Scanned by CamScanner Scanned by CamScanner (t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s a s s l m e s t h a t a t l i n d u s t r i a l n a t i o n s w i l l r i s e t o by a n o t h e r 6 m i l l i o n . 4 8 I f Ja p a n e s e f e r t i l i t y w e r e t o s o m e h o w r e b o u n d
  • 90. a c c e l e r a t e . B e n v e e n n o w a n d 2 0 2 5 , t h c c o u n t r ) Y s p ° p u l a t i o n w i l l d r o p by 2 0 11 Ja p a n h a d a l r e a d y l o s t a m i l l i o n p e o p l e . 4 7 T h e s e l o s s e s w i l l Po i n t (12 ? . 4 6 m i l l i o n ) f r o m 2 0 0 6 t o 2 0 0 7 . 4 6 I n 2 0 0 8 t h e d e c l i n e b e g a n o f i n c r e a s e d i s a p p
  • 91. e a r e d a s Ja p a n ’ s p o p u l a t i o n t e ( t e r e d a t t h e t i p p i n g By 2 o o o , Ja p a n h a d g r o w n , s l i g h t <y , t o 1 2 6 . 55 m i l l i o n . 4 - 5 T h a t t i n y r a t e o f I . 56 , b u t t h a n k s t o m o m e n m m i t s p ° p u l a t i o n w a s s t i l l g r o w i n g . 4 4 im m i g r a t i o n . I n 1 9 9 5 , Ja p a n h a d 1 2 5 . 51 m i l l i o n p e o p
  • 92. l e a n d a f e r t i l i t y r a t e Ja p a n i s f a c i n g t h e s a m e s i t u a t i o n , o n l y w i t h o u t t h e b e n e f i t o f hi gh l e v e l s o f i m m i g r a t i o n . 4 3 po p u l a t i o n w i l l f a l l t o 3 7 m i l l i o n b y t h e e n d o f t h e c e n t u r y , e v e n w i t h I f t h e c u r r e n t r e v i s i o n i s w r o n g a n d I t a l ) S f e r t i l i t y h o l d s c o n s t a n t , i t s o v e r t h e n e x t f e w d e c a d e s . 4 2 (M o r e o n t h i s a s s u m p t i o n i n a m o m e n t . ) I t a l y ’ s fe r t i l i t y
  • 93. r a t e w o u l d m a r c h r i g h t b a c k u p t o r e p l a c e m e n t l e v e l de c l i n e w o u l d n ’ t b e s o b a d a f t e r a l l . T h e U N s i m p l y a s s u m e d t h a t D i v i s i o n r e v i s e d i t s p r o j e c t i o n s , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t I t a l y " p o p u l a t i o n l iq n b y 2 9 2 5 a n d 4 - I m i l l i o n b y . 2 0 5 o . 4 1 T h e n , i n 2 0 1 o t h e P o p u l a t i o n e v e n w i t h h e a v y
  • 94. i m m i g r a t i o n , h a bYs p o p u l a t i o n w o u l d f a l l . To 5 1 m i Ba c k i n 2 0 0 1 , t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s P o p u l a t i o n D i v i s i o n p r o j e c t e d t h a t I t a l y a n d s e r i o u s s h r i n k a g e . A n d s o o n e v e n t h e y w o n ’ t b e e n o u g h . im m i g r a n t s - m o s t l y f r o m A l b a n i a - a r e a l l t h a t ’
  • 95. s s t a n d i n g b c n v e e n gr a n t s p e r y e a r . W i t h t h e i r d e m o g r a p h i c m o m e n t u m s p e n t , t h e s e n e w t i c k e d u p w a r d b e c a u s e t h e ) Y v e r e c e n t l y a v e r a g e d 3 0 0 , 0 0 0 n e w i m m Ye t t h e I t a l i a n s h a d s o m e l u c k . T h e i r o v e r a l l p o p u l a t i o n a c t u a l l y m i l l i o n . I n 2 0 1 o , t h e r e w e r e 2 5 , 5 o o m o r e deat s t h a n b i r t h s i n I t a l y . 4 o s l o w d e c l i n e h a d b e g u n a n d I t a bYs p o p u l a t i o n s l i p p e d b a c k w a r d t o 5 8 . I
  • 96. ha d 5 8 . 3 m i l l i o n p e o p l e . 3 9 T h a t w a s t h e i n f l e c t i o n p o i n t . B y 2 0 0 8 , t h e h a l y i t i s l e s s t h a n I . T h i s i s c o n s i d e r e d p a t h o l o g i c a l ’ 3 8 l y 9 9 5. I t a l y n v o c h i l d r e n p e r c o u p l e . N o w i t i s a b o u t I . 3, a n d fo r s o m e t o w n s i n T i t t T n n e s , " I n t h e i 9 6 o s , t h e o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t
  • 97. y r a t e i n I t a l y w a s a r o u n d o f t h e s i t u a t i o n f o r h a l y , d e m o g r a p h e r L e t i z i a M e n c a r i n i t o l d t h c N n p bab i e s ? A g a i n , I t a l y a n d Ja p a n a r e i n s t r u c t i v e . E x p l a i n i n g t h e s ( r i o u s n e s s W h a t c o u l d o u r f i l r u r e l o o k l i k e i f w e c o n t i n u e t o h a v e t o o f c w Wha t t o Ex p e ct W h e n N o o n e 7 Ex p e ct i n g 2 3 Scanned by CamScanner P o p u ˜ o n On m ̆ o n s 1 , S M i s 0 5 1 5 e s 3 5 4 5 ;So 14r ce U n i t e t / N a t i o n s P o
  • 98. & Bl a t i o n D i p i s i o n , R t p - n t M i & Figu r e 2 . Age - Se x St r u c t u r e o f t h e U n i t e d St a t e s, 2000 . a n a g e s t r u c t u r e s i m i l a r t o F l o r i d a ° s a g e s t r u c 【u r e t o d a y . ^ b y 1 3 m i l l i o n . 5 9 R o u g h l y s p e a k i n g , A m e r i c a a s a w h o l e w i u h a v e Po p u l a t i o n o f 6 5 - a n d - o v e r s w i u o u t n u m b e r t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f 14 -
  • 99. a n o u t o f e v e r y f i v e A m e r i c a n s w i l l r e a c h r e t i r e m e n t a g e b y 2 0 5 o . T he t h e n u m b e r o f U . S . c i t i z e n s o v e r 6 5 w i . l i n c r e a s e b y 7 2 p e r c e n t . O n e A m e r i c a s a g e s t r u c t u r e i s a l r e a d y s h i f t i n g . B e t w e e n 2 0 0 5 a n d 2 0 2 5 , o f t h e v e r y e l d e r l y (75 a n d o l d e r ). t o 5 y e a r s , i s s m a l l e r t h a n e v e r y c o h o r t e x c e p t f o r t h e o n e s c o m p o s e d c o n t i n u e s c o n t r a c t i n g . N o t e h o w t h e y o u n
  • 100. g e s t c o h o r t , f r o m a g e s o 3 s h o w s t h e a g e s t r u c t u r e R u s s i a w i l l f a c e i n 2 0 5 o , a s i t s p o p u l a t i o n a d u l t s , a n d e v e n t u a l l y m o r e r e t i r e e s , t h a n c h i l d r e n . F o r e x a m p l e , F igu r e A s f e r t i l i t y r a t e s d r o p , t h e s t r u c t u r e b e g i n s t o i n v e r t , w i t h m o r e F i g u r e 2 s h o w s a s n a p s h o t o f A m e r i c a ’ s a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n , c i r c a 2 o o o . t i v e y e a r s , a n d t h e c o h o r t s a b o v e r e
  • 101. p r o d u c t i v e a g e g e t s t e a d i l y s m a l l e r . c o h o r t s a r e c l o s e i n s i z e t o t h e c o h o r t s t h a t a r e i n t h e i r p r i m e r ep r o d u a f o u n t a i n p e n , w i t h i t s t i p p o i n t e d t o w a r d t h e s k y . T h e y o u n g e r a g e 26 Am e r ica c Fa M n g Fe r t M t y Scanned by CamScanner 0 l 3
  • 102. 2 0 0 ; . p u 1 a t i o n On m i l l i o n s ) 旧 旧 P " 4 , I » i t . A s L o n g m a n p u t s i t , " A f t e r t h e p r o p ° r t i o n o f e l d e r s i n c r e a s e s i n 1 : : : Lol de g r a y c r p o p u l a t i o n s t r u c t u r e m
  • 103. a y h a v e s o m e t h i n g t o d o w i t h £ / p , • by I . 0 8 p e r c e n t . B . t w e e n 1 9 7 2 a n d 1 9 9 5 , t h ’ ’ " . O f i ’ ’ " S° h ex ’ . . p r o d u c t i v i t ) ’ (a m e a s u r e o f e c o n o m i c d y n a m i s m ) i n c r e a s e d a n n u a l l y
  • 104. s i d c r a b l y s i n c e 1 9 7 2 - j u s t a f t e r W e s t e r n f e r t i l i t y b e g a n t o c o l l a p s e . L o n g m a n n o t e s t h a t t h e p a c e o f h u m a n p r o g r e s s h a s s l o w e d c o *t n/ ". > x_s Wha t t o Ex p e ct W h e n N o O n e s Ex p e ct i n g 2 7
  • 105. Scanned by CamScanner L C • ’ . . ! m e d b y K a z a k h s t a n , a s t a b l e , m o d e r n i z i n g c o u +t t ry • s t a t e s i n t h e n e i g h b o r h o o d . I n v o l a t i l e S o u t h C e n t r a l A s i a , t he l 0 w e s t fe r t i l i t y r a t e s i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t a n d a r e t w o o f t
  • 106. h e l e a s t b e l l i g e r c rr t t h e c o n t i n e n e s m o s t s t a b l e n a t i o n s . I s r a e l a n d Q a t a r h a v e t h e l o v a t { Io w f e n i l i t y r a t e s t e n d t o b e m o r e p e a c e a b e . M a u r i t i u s , So u t h A f i i ca , / a h o t b e d o f v i o l e n c e , h a v e a f e r t i l i t y r a t e o f 4 7 , o n e o f t h e M g h c s t i n . t h a s a f e r t i l i t y r a t e o f 6 . 8 , t h e h i g h e s t i n A s i a . T h e p a l e s t i n i a n t c r r i t o D es, A f g h a n i s t a n , h o m e t o t h r e e g e n e r a t i o n s o f n e a r - c o n t i n u o u s c o n f l i q
  • 107. fo r i n s t a n c e , h a s a f e r t i l i t y r a t e o f 5 - 4 3 , o n e o f t h e h i g h e s t i n A f r i c a . Pat t er n h o l d s w h e n o n e g l a n c e s a c r o s s t h e g l o b e . c o u n t r i e s f r e q u e n t l y e f r e c t o n E u r o p e , a n d a l t h o u g h i t i s a c o m p l i c a t e d q u e s t i o n , t h e g e n e r al Pr o g c n y w i l l n o t a c c e p t a s i n g l e m i l i t a r y c a s u a l t y . • t h e f a m i l y l i n e . A s D a v i d G o l d m a n ruef rl y n o t e s , A p e o p l e w i t h o u t c h i l d w i l l b e l e s s w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t m i l i t a r
  • 108. y c a s u a l t i e s . T h e l o s s o f a w h a t e v e r f o r m o u r f u t u r e m i l i t a r y d o e s t a k e , f a m i l i e s w i t h j u s t o n c ’ : H W t ) - , 4 84 c e n t s o n p e n s i o n s f o r e v e r y d o l l a r i t s p e n d s o n b a s i c p a y . 6 3 An d . . - Akead1oadeddown by r e t i r c m « n t b c n c f i t s . T h e p ’ " a g ’ " ( m % F i n a l l % a n o l d e r So c i e t y w i t h f e w ( r c h i l d r ( n w i l l % n d i t d i f f i c u l t
  • 109. n e c e s s a r i l y s p u r i n n o v a t i o n i n t h e w i d e r ( c o n o m y . . - ï ï O ld e r c i t i z e n s n e c e s s a r i l y s e e k l e s s r i s k y e m p l o y +n e n t a n d b r v est . a s o c i e t y b e y ° n d a c e r t a i n p o i n t , t h t o f e n t r c p r c n e 1 1 r s h i p ari d 28 Am e r ica7 Fa l l i n g Fe r t i l it y Scanned by CamScanner w as m o F e . D a n g e r o u s . T H A N . E v E R ! - I e s i n s a n e
  • 110. t o c o n s i d e r l o wTbe p o p u l a t i o n Expt oi on, i n w h i c h h e c l a i m e d t h a t o v e r p ° P u l a t i o n ab o u t t h e p e r i l s o f o v e r p ° p u l a t i o n , e v e n t o t h i s d a y . I n i g g o , l o n g a r e s t ill u n d e r i t s s p e l l . I n c l u d i n g
  • 111. E h r l i c h . u n d e t e r r e d b y h a v i n g h i sT hc h y s t e r i a m i g h t b e f u n n y i n h i n d s i g h t , e x c e p t t h a t l o t s o f p e o p l e o f k i d s t h e y h a d , « t h c c h i l d r e n w i l l b e s i c k l y a n d unh app w i t h l i t t l e le c t u r e d v i e w e r s t h a t i f f a m
  • 112. i l i e s d i d n ’ t d r a s t i c a l l y c u t b a c k t h e n Lu n b e r t r a n s l a t e d i n t o 2 4 d i f t e r e n t l a n g u a g e s a n d f e a n i r i n g D o n a l d D u c k , m o v i e f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n c o u n c i l , t i t l e d B • 111ni t P tt 1 n n i r u . T h c m o v i e ,m e m o v e m e n t w a s i n s u c h a l a t h e r t h a t i n 1 9
  • 113. 6 7 , D i s n e y p r o c l U c e d a e c h o i n g E h r l i c h ’ s f o r e c a s t . (A m o n g o t h e r t h i n g s , t h e C l u b o f R o m e I n 19 7 2 , t h e C l u b o f R o m e p u b l i s h e d a t r a c t , T b ‹ L i n zi˘ t o G r a t p t h , in t r o d u c e b i r t h c o n t r o l a n d a b o r t i o n i n d e
  • 114. v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . W h e n ’ 7 o s v e r e Døl o f p ° p u l a t i o n h y s t e r i a . G r o u p s s u c h a s t h e F o r d F o u n d o f m i l l i o n s w o u l d d i e a s o v e r p o p u l a t i o n r a v a g ( d t h e w o r l
  • 115. d . A s p r e v less n e s s a n d a r e l o o k i n g f o n v a r d t o t h e c o m i n g p o p u l a t i o n c mnc h , Wha t t o Ex p e ct W h e n N o O n e7 Ex p e c t i n g 2 9 , #æ zgi " Scanned by CamScanner - " . 1 L y 【n e r e a l i n C O n V e n i e n t t r u t h " a n d c a l l e d f o r a >
  • 116. T h e l a m e n t a t i o n s c o n t i n u e . I n 2 0 0 9 , c a n a d a ’ s F i n a n t i ß l d ßß t a l i s t s w o u l d h a v e t o i n v e n t [i t ] ’ " o f h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n " a n d i FA i D s " d i d n ’ t e x i s t , r a d i c al e n i r o n n ì e n ’ be i n g a s c o u r g e
  • 117. , i s a w e l c o m e d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e i n e v i t a b l e r e d u c t i o t fa r a s t o p u b l i s h a r t i c l e s s a y i n g t h a t " T h e A I D s e p i d e m i c , r a t h e r t h a n a s i f h e ’ d n e v e r s e e n a f e r t i l i t y c h a r t . 7 6 T h e g r o u p E a r t h F i r s t ! w en t so p . T he
  • 118. " s t e a dy p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h " t h e w o r l d w i u e x p e r i e n c e i n t h e f i r t u r e 4 , i i s o n e o f t h e d r i v e r s o f a c o m i n g g l o b a l c a t a s t r o p h e a n d t a l k e d a b o ut . ’ J j , L I n H o t F l a t , a n d c r u 1p ¢i ed , T o m F r i e d m a n a r g u e d t h a t o v e r p o p
  • 119. u l at i o n p e o p l e t o c o p e o n a h e a v i n g , b o i l i n g p l a n e t t h a n f o r 9 o r 1 o b i l l i o n " 1, j sl :- . o l u m n i s t Jo h a n n H a r i w o r r i e d t h a t , ° I t w i l l b e e a s i e r f o r 6 b i l lio n r 4 . s i t y w a r n e d t h a t c h i l d r e n w e r e t e r r i b l e c o n t r i b u t o r s t o g l o b a l w a r m i n g > ’ : グ l . . ’ " . Dr a g o n t h’ ’ " n o. Y. "
  • 120. A ’ ’ " t ’ " dy at 0. ° 9 o. S’ " U n i . . - 、 【 广 ド ° I n 2 0 0 8 , a g° v e r n m e n t r e p o r t i n A u s t r a l i a p r o c l a i m e d t h a t b ab ies a w a r e n e s s a b o u t o v e r p o p u l a t i o n . 7 2 D i v i s i o n , n o n e t h e l e s s s p ° n s o r s a " W o r l d P o p u l a t i o n D a y " t o r a ise o n t h e d o w n w a r d s p i r a l o f f a l l i n g f e r t i l i t y r a t e s t h r o u
  • 121. g h i t s P o p u l at i o n s e r i o u s » 7 ’ T h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s , w h i c h h a s d o n e a g r e a t d e a l o f st ud ! D a l a i L a m a w a r n s t h a t o v e r p o p u l a t i o n i s " v e r y s « r i o u s - v c r y , v e r y i s c a u s i n g " Dt r t h e r d e g r a d a t i o n o f A m c r i c a s n a t u r a l t n a s u r c s ’ t The z a t i o n c l a
  • 122. i m s t h a t " p ° p u l a t i o n g r o w t h [i s ] w i l d l y o u t o f c o n t r o p an d u n s u s t a i n a b l e d a n g e r . T h e g r o u p C a l i f o r n i a n s f o r P o p u l a t i o n St abü Eh r l i c h i s n ’ t a l o n e i n t h i n k i n g t h a t p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h i s st i l l an Scanned by CamScanner fr o m r e p r o d u c i n g t o o f t s e t a t y p
  • 123. i c a l A m e r i c ˜ s e x i s t e n c e . 8 1 ’ . ’ ( o n l y t a k e s $ 14 4 2 o p e r y e a r t o k e e p e n o u g h o f t h e g r e a t u n w a s h e d - r • t . life s t y l e . I n c a s e y o u ’ r e c u r i o u s , P o p u l a t i o n M a t t e r s e s t i m a t e s t h a t i t y B - / in d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t o m a k e u p f o r t h e i r o w n c a r b o n - go b b l i n g . ’ ,
  • 124. e r n e r s p u r c h a s e c a r b o n - o f t s e t t i n g f a m i l y - p l a n n i n g c r e d i t s . I n o t h e r c { A W t M a t t e r s n m s a p r o g r a m w h e r e b y e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y • c o n s c i o u s w e s t ’ J. ; 1 ’ ’ 1m o s t c h a t m i n g e u p h e m i s m e v e r c o n c e i v e d f o r a n i n f a n t . ) Po p u l a t i o n w o r l d w i t h " fe w - s J o w e r e m i s s i o n s
  • 125. " 8 o ( " E m i t t e r " m a y b e t h e . , i 一 了 ノ 1 • T he e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t g r o u p P o p u l a t i o n M a t t e r s h a s c a l l e d f o r a o n c l im a t e c h a n g e . -
  • 126. ø ¥ . 79 • P t r Co n e o f C h i n a ’ s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t o t h e 2 0 0 9 C o p e n h a g e n c o n f e r e n c e 1 ; q t u ¢ dl e P O p u l a t i 0 n c o n c e r n f i t s r i g h t i n t o t h e p i c t u r e ’ s a i d z h a o B a i g e , ; . . . in v o 0v i n g p
  • 127. ° l i t i c a l , e c o n o m i c , s o c i a l , c u l t u r a l a n d e c o l o g i c a l i s s u e s , a n d . • { v 1 al l i s s u e o f c O . e m i s s i o n r e d u c t i o n b u t a c o m p r e h e n s i v e c h a l l e n g e ç v q . . I g e . 78 c h i n a a g r e e s . " D e a l i n g w i t h c l i m a t e c h a n g e i s n o t s i m p l y { J. .
  • 128. gl o b a l b i r t h r a t e " w h i c h i s , t h e a u t h o r s c l a i m e d , r e s p o n s i b l e f , c l i m a t e Y . . ! w• w h t t o E, k h l N o ’ , : efs E" l c4 " , ; . . Scanned by CamScanner le d w o m e n t o " boyco’ h a v i n g c h i l d r e n . 8 2
  • 129. " r igh t - w i n g ’ s ys t e m o f m a k i n 9 l i f e h a r d o n w o r k i n g m o t h e r s t h a t h as X H So l o n g a s i e s t i e d t o r a c e - O t h e r l i b e r a l s suchasNoer f a m i l y - be n e f i t s s y s t e m , s h e c r i e s , i s " a f f ir m a t i v e a c t i o n f o r m o t h e r s ’ c a n t a k e "
  • 130. l e a v e f r o m w o r k t o w a t c h s u s i d a n c e s ì p a n A a k ‹ » T h e e n n r e t h e c h i l d - f r e e a r e f o r c e d t o p u t i n o v e r t i m e s o t h a t c o l l e a g u e s w i t h 】9i d s ì • W1ni - Bri ardAme?i ca c li e a t s t b e c b i l ¢i l es ç , E l i n o r B u r k e t t a r g u e s 【b t w a n t A m e r i c a t o b e c o m e e v e n ?m ?p e a n t i - c h i l d . I n 7 b e B a W B oo n H op c h a r g e t h a t s o c i e t y i s g i v i n g t b ‹ m t h e s h o r t e n d o f t h e s t i c k . Th ey T h e c h i l d - f r e e m o v e m e n t i s s o s t r i d e n t t h a t i t s a d h e r e n t s o f t en e x i s t e n c e , a lt h o u g h a h a r m t o h i m
  • 131. , i s a g r e a t b e n e D t t o t h e r e s t o f u s " t h e y b r o u g h t m e i n t o e x i s t e n c e a n d t o m y b r o t h e r s , e a c h o f w h o se as t o n i s h i n g f o o l i s h n e s s . H e d e d i c a t e s i t " T o m y p a r e n t s , e v e n t ho u g h i n t o E n i e n c ‹ - w h i c h i s e i t h e r a w o r k o f p e r f o r m a n c e a r t , c o m e d) o r <s h e d a b o o k t h 1c d B e t t e r N ‹ p e r t o H a v e B e e n T TJ e Ham1Co?ni TB
  • 132. Ca se To r S m ˘ t f ‹ r B • ˘ 1 n i ti e s . P h i l o s o p h y p r o f e s s o r D a v i d B e n a t a r p u a m o r e s e r i o u s c a l l t o t h e c h i l d - f r e e l i f e i n 1 9 9 8 w i t h 1aybe On t À u n a b a s h e d a s s a u l t o n t h e o d i o u s n e s s o f b a b i e s . B i l l M c K i b b c n i ssu ed t o H a p e C b i l t i ˘ n . Be c a m e a s e n s a t i o n a c r o s s E u r o p e w i t h i t s fr a n k an d o f t h e e a r l y M a r x is t s . Co r h n e M a ì e t ’ s N o K i t t s 4 o G o o f l R e a so n s N ¡ r T h e c h i l d - f r e e l i f e i s c h a m p i o n e d w i t h t h e v i g o r a n d c o n v i c t i o n Co 1+ple s G u i d e t o L i v i n a C b i l d 1e ss b y C h o i c e . oí ¢t c b i 1d Te n b y Cb o i c e . M y f a v o r i t e i s L a u r a S c o t e s T n t o I s E m i % b : A Ca n o w s F a m ili es o f T po : . n t en ì i e w s 11ì i t b H a ppi ly M a r r i e d C o u ples wi t
  • 133. +pi t b o 14t c b i t d r en t o N i c k i D e f a g o ’ s Cbi t tl l ee a n t i t a p i n g ¡ t l t o > a u r a Rt po l u t iß n t o T e t D C a s e v s P r i t Be a n t l Jo y : T h e L i p es a n t i P a ss i on of w ol 1n i s b o t h h y s t e r i c a l a n d c l a r i f y i n g : f r o m M a d e l y n C a i n ’ s T be ¡ i h fa t e r m o f a r t h e r e i s " c h il d - f r e e " a n d t h e r a f t o f b o o k s o n t h e su bject m o v e m e n t t h a
  • 134. t pu s h e s c h i l d l e s s n e s s a s a s u p e r i o r l i f e s t y l e c h o i c e , The Ev e n i f y ° u d o n ’ t b u y i n t o r a d i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t a l p o l i t i c s , t Rc r c ’ s a Child - Free a n d Lo v i n g ¡ t ! 32 Aín eDcac FaM n g Fe r t M t y L
  • 135. Scanned by CamScanner e s p e c i a l l y b a b i e s . I f p a r e n t s c a n J t a f eo r d o f l o c a t e a s i t t e t h e ngr a y l a n d g a l : I w o n t m a k e a n y a p ° l o g i e s : I h a t e k i d s , t r y t o i n i t i a t e " conver sat i on " w i t h m e w h e n I a m e n jo y i n g
  • 136. a ‹ la l <o w y o u r o f t s p r i n g t o l e a n o v e r t h e s e a t o f a r e s t a u f a n t a n d n o t m a k e t h o s e o f u s w h o a r e n o t f o r c e d i n t o w a s h a n d w e a r W a r d r o b e . D oi t ’ s gr u b b % c r u s t y h a n d s . o n e o f t h e b e n e f i t s
  • 137. o f n o t h a v i n gW Ho l e F o o d s a n d g r a b m y $ z 5 o R a l p h L a u r e n s i l k s k i r t w i t hp m E ! ! ! ! D o n o t l e t y ° u r s t i c k l y o f t s p r i n g r u s h u p t o m e i n par e n t s a n d c h i l d r e n . 8 4 So m e s a m p l e e n t r i e spa p e r
  • 138. ’ s w e b s i t e , w i t h s e n t i m e n t r u n n i n g a b o u t 6 o - t o - 4 o a g a i n s t do n J t t hi n k t h e y o w n e v e r y t h i n g " T h e P o 5t d e t a i l e d s i m i l a r s c u f H e s i n a As s o m e o n e w h o d o e s n
  • 139. ’ t h a v e c h i l d r e n , I t h i n k c h i l d r e n a r e f i n e . I sai d t h a t s h e w i s h e d t h e k i d : c o u l d b e c o n D n e d t o a f e n c e d - i n a r e a o f sh a r e s p a c e w i t h t h e n e w h u m a n d e p e n d e n t s . I n a n a t t e m p t t o b r i n g pe
  • 140. a c e , a l o c al p e t c o a c h c a l l i n g h e r s e l f t h e D o g g y L a m a h e l d " d o g lai d c l a i n l t o t h e n e i g h b o r h o o d D r s t , w e r e a n n o ye d a t b e i n g a s k e d t o m e d i a n p r c .
  • 141. a L o h o u s e i s n e a r $ i m i l l i o n . T h e d o g o w n e r s , . " ho Di " o n >a r k i s ge n tr i f i e d an d ex p e n s i ve - e v e n p° s t - b u b b l e, t h e Wha t t o Ex p e c t W h e n N o O n e / Ex p e d i n g 3 3F . r Scanned by CamScanner i e s n o t u n h e a r d - o f i n h u m a n h i s t o r y • T h e G r e e k h i s t o r i a n p o l y
  • 142. b i u s f e r t i l i t y P o p u l a t i o n c o n t r a c t i o n i s s o m e t h i n g n e w i n m o d e r n t i m e s , n o w " Pe r c e i v e d a s a t h r e a t t o t h e p r e s e n t " i n t h e W e s t . B u t w h i l e l o Po p e B e n e d i c t X V I h a d i t r i g h t w h e n h e o b s e r v e d t h a t c h i l d r e n a r e " ll o f t h i s h a s h a p p e n e d b e f o r e . . . • e m e r g e s a s a n i d e a l l i f e s t y l e " 8 6 t o t h e J V n p ? O ï T i m es , i n t h e m o d e m
  • 143. p l e a s u r e c a r n i v a l , " c h i l d l e s s n e s s s o , a s N i k o l a i B o t e v o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s p o p u l a t i o n F u n d p u t i t r e s t a u r a n t s , a n d s t r i p - m a l l s . I t i s n e a r l y i m p o s s i b l e t o h a v e b o t h . A n d o f E d e n i n t o s o m e s o u l l e s s s u b u r b l i n e d w i t h b i g b o x s t o r e s , c h a i n w o n d e r - %l l e d e x i s t e n c e . H a v i n g c h i l d r e n i s o f t e n a o n e - w a y t i c k e t o u t i n a
  • 144. p l a c e l i k e L i n c o l n P a r k o r 0 1d T o w n A l e x a n d r i a c a n b e a g l o r i o u s , t h e ) Y r c n o t (c o m p l e t e l y ) i n s a n e . I t i s a h a r d ü n t h t h a t h v i n g c h i l d - f r e e o r i g i n a l s , I ’ m a f r a i d . Ye t a s u n a t t r a c t i v e a s t h e s e c o m m e n t s m i g h t b ( , A l l t h e o u t r a g e , b i l e ,
  • 145. m i s s p e l l i n g s , a n d u n i n t e l l i g i b i l i t y a r e i n t h e I d e v e l o p e d c o n t i n e n c e , s e 1F a m b u l a t i o n , a n d s o c i a l s k i l l s . 8 5 t e r ? Y o u b e t . . . . M y p a r e n t s d i d n o t i n 0l i c t m e o n s o c i e t y u n t i l b e c a u s e t h e p a r e n t s w o n
  • 146. ° t m a k e i t s i t d o w n a n d s h u t u p . B i w h o h a n g s o v e r t h e b a c k o f a n a d j o i n i n g r e s t a u r a n t b o o t h SO c u t e a n d I w e a r y o f r e p l y i n g " h i " 4 6 7 t i m e s t o a t o d d l e r m e a n t f o r g r o w n - u p s b e c a u s e , g e e , e v e r y b o d y t h i n k s t h e ) Y r e t o m y a n t i q u e s - a n d b r e a k a b l e - fi ll e d h o m e f o r e v e n t s c l e a r l y
  • 147. t i r e d o f " f r i e n d s " d r a g g i n g t h e i r h y p e r - a c t i v e g e r m - s p r e a d e r s b e c a u s e a l a z y - a s s p a r e n t w o n ’ t a dj o u r n t o a r e s t r o o m I a m a c e d b y t h e s t e n c h o f d i r t y d i a p e r s c h a n g e d i n p u b l i c a r e a s t h a n t h e y w i l l w h e n g r a d u a t i o n e x t o r t i o n s s t a r t ; 1 a m n a u s
  • 148. i n g g i f t , e t c . , fo r d r o o l e r s w h o w o n ’ t t h a n k m e n o w a n y ’ m o r e C a r s ; I a m b i t t e r a b o u t e x t o r t i o n f o r b a b y s h o w e f s , c hr i s t e t e n d o n r a m m e d b y k n o b b y - t i r e d s t r o l l e r s t h e s i z e o f S m a r t s t a y h o m e . I a m b l o o d y s i c k o f h a
  • 149. v i n g m y f e e l a n d A c h i l l e s 34 Am e r ica Fa l l i n g Fe r t i l it y Scanned by CamScanner グリん ? . ’ " " ý ’ "gust us a t t e m p t e d t o c o m b a t t h e d e a r t h o f c h i l d r e n w i t h a b a c h e l o r y $ - t o t h a t p e r i o d a s t h e d e s c e n t i n t o t h e D a r k A g
  • 150. e s . A a r l y u l ’ , - _ 1 . $ w ˜ be t w e e n A . D . 2 o o a n d 6 o o , p ° p u l a t i o n s h r a n k f r o m 2 5 7 r • " . mi n t o • Z5ZUi on . 8 8 F n e x t , z o _ï y e a r s , g r o w t h sw d t o a 2 _ o , bi r t h o f C h , t . T h e w m s p ° p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e d f r o m a b o u t 15 3
  • 151. de m o g r a p h e r o i i v i - B a c c i e x p !a jn s . Th a t , b e n v e n . o o B . c . a n d / i p his s e m i n a l c o n c i s ‹ H t Tt o t y . I B r td _ Puì at i on, t h e b r i l l i a n t I t a l i a n T h e R o m a n E m p i r e a l s o e r o d e d b e c a u s e o f d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y , I n be c o m e s p a r s e l y i n h a b i t e d a n d w e a k . 7 l e f t h e i r l e s s : a n d , l i k e s w a r m s o f b e e s , l i t t l e b y l i t t l e t h e c i
  • 152. t i e s t h a t , i f w a r o r p e s t i l e n c e c a r r i e s o n e o f t , t h e h o u s e s m u s t b e F o r w h e n t h e r e a r e o n l y o n e o r t w o s o n s , i t i s e v i d e n t br i n g i n g t h e m u p i n e x t r a v a g a n t l u x u r y . o u t o f a g r e a t n u mb e f o r t h e s a k e o f l e a v i n g t h e m w e l l o f t o r
  • 153. t o r e a r t h e c h i l d r e n t h a t w e r e b o r n , o r , a t m o s t o n e o r t w o i n g l y e i t h e r n o t m a r r y ;i n g a t a l l , o r , i f t h e y d i d m a r r y , r e f u s i n g s h o w a n d m o n e y a n d t h e p l e a s u r e s o f a n i d l e l i f e , a n d a c co r a t t e n t i o n , b y o u r m e n b e c o m i n g p e r v e r t e d t o a p a s s i o n f o r . . . £ .
  • 154. - " ’ F o r t h i s e v i l g r e w u p o n u s r a p i d l y , a n d w i t h o u t a t t r a c t i n g m a n i f e s t a n d t h e c u r e i n o u r o w n h a n d s ? w o u l d h e n o t h a v e s ( e m e d a f u t i l e p e r s o n , w h e n t h e c a s e w a s i n o r d e r t o b e c o m e m o r e t i u m e r o u s a n d b e t t e r 6 11 o u r c i t i e i n g t o a s k t h e g o d s i n r e g a r d t o t h i s , w h a t w c w e r e t o d o o r s a y pe s t i l e n c e s a m o n g u s . I ( t h e n , a n y o n e h a d a d v i s e d O u r s e n r es u l t e d , t h o u g h t h e r e w e r e n o l o n g - c o n t i n u ( d w a r s o r s e r i o u s w e r e d e n u d e d o f i n h a b i t a n t s , a n d a f a i l u r e o f p r o d u c t i v c n t s s
  • 155. ge n e r a l l y a d e c a y o f p o p u l a t i o n , o w i n g t o w h i c h t h e c i t i e s I n o u r t i m e a l l G r e e c e w a s v i s i t e d b y a d e a r t h o f c h i l d r ( n a n d t h e s e c o n d c e n t u r y B . c . i n w o r d s t h a t s o u n d e e r i l y f a m i l i a r , H e w r o t e o b s e r v e d t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f f a l l i n
  • 156. g f e r t i l i t y a m o n g h i s c o u n t r y m e n i n Wha t t o Ex p e ct w h e n No o n e ’ s E x p e t t i n g 3 5 Scanned by CamScanner b r e a k f a s t u n t i l o n e o f y o u a b s e n t l y m ( n t i o n s t h a t , w e l l , m a y b e i e t i m e Y ¥i ; > x i j i n y o u r k i t c h e n , S U r r o u n d e d b y S t a i n l e s s St e e l a p p l i a n c e s a n d ( x p o s
  • 157. c . Y ° " " ° " ’ " " " r s p o u s e w a k e u p o n e s a m m o m i g n ’ , , ’ A n d t o b e g i n a n a n s w e r , Ie t ’ s t r y a n e v e n m o r e d i s c r e t e q u e s t i o n . L e t ’ s
  • 158. 4 c , : ’ t h a t f u t u r e l o o k l i k e ? H o w w i u d i f t e r i n g f e r t i l i t y r a t e s a f t e c t A m e r i c a , . K r u n , t h e g r o u p s t h a t b r e e d w i u (l i t e r a l l y ) i n h e r i t t h e f u t u r e . w n a t w i l l c o n s t a n t a c r o s s a l l p o p u l a t i o n s . T h e r e m a y b e t u m u l t , b u t i n t h e l o n g T h e s e a r e g l o o m y t h o u g h t s . H o w e v e r , b e f o r e y o u g e t t o od e p r e s s e d , t h e r e i s g o o d n e w s . R e m e m b e r t h a t f e r t i l i t y r a t e s a r e n o t n o p r e c e d e n t i n h u m a n h i s t o r y f o r e c o n o m i c g r o w t h o n d
  • 159. St e y n p u t s i t b e s t - i f m o s t s t a r k l y - w h e n h e c a u t i o n s t h a t " t h e r e i s • h ! i nc r e a s e of th e nu m b e r of it s i nh a b i t a n t s " O r p e r h a p s t h e g r ea t Ma r k ’ , A " Vat i ons , ° t h e m o s t d e c i s i v e m a r k o f
  • 160. p r o s p e r i t y o f a n y c o u n t r y i s t h e b y b a c k w a r d e c o n o m i e s ’ O a s A d a m S m i t h n o t e d i n T b e W ea h b of Pr o c e s s o f l o s i n g p o p u l a t i o n h a v e a l m o s t a l w a y s b e e n c h a r a c t e r i z e d A s L i v i - B a c c i o b s e r v e s , " H i s t o r i c a 1l % a r c a s d e p o p u l a t e d o r i n t h e i t w a s t h e r e i g n o f t h e B l a c k D e a t h . 9 o o n y
  • 161. m i l l i o n . T M s w a s n o t a p e r i o d o f e n v i r o n m ( n t a l a n d s o c i a l h a r m 3 7 s t e e p l y b e n v e e n 1 3 4 o a n d 14 o o , s h r i n k i n g f r o m 4 4 3 m i u i o n t o t a x o n s i n g l e m e n ; i t h a d l i t t l e e f t e c t . 8 9 W o r l d p o p u l a t i o n d s o d e c l i n e d 36 Am e r k a 7 Fa M n g Fe r t M t y . A