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Venture Capital, Catastrophism, & The Redemption of Immanuel Velikovsky

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Paul Kedrosky
Paul Kedrosky

Musings on venture capital, catastrophism, the Central Limit Theorem, and Tiger Woods' swing.

BusinessEconomy & Finance
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Venture Capital , Catastrophism , & the Redemption of Immanuel Velikovsky Paul Kedrosky Oct. 24/2007
Far better an approximate answer to the right question , which is often vague , than an exact answer to the wrong question , which can always be made precise . J. Tukey (1962), Annals of Mathematics and Statistics 33:1-67
 
 
 
First things first
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Why?
If I am interested in, say, the distribution of the intensities of hurricanes, I cannot just “collect data more frequently”: I will just have to wait for the next hurricane to arrive. Source: R. Rebonatto, Plight of the Fortune-Tellers (2007)
Catastrophism vs. Uniformitarianism
With correlations growing across all strategies, alt asset firms are in a social network ... they just didn’t know it .
The trouble with normal
A putative 100 mile long by 10 mile wide (160 × 16 km) wildfire reported in 1889 was reconstructed to an area of chaparral 40 times smaller … Source: Goforth and Minnich, 1996, Ecological Applications , p. 779-790
 
 
 
 
 
Tiger Woods & .400 hitters
 
 
 
Blind spots , predictability and the right wall of human performance
 
 
Errors of Nature , Sports and Monsters correct our understanding in regard to ordinary things, and reveal general forms . Francis Bacon, Novum Organum

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Venture Capital, Catastrophism, & The Redemption of Immanuel Velikovsky

  • 1. Venture Capital , Catastrophism , & the Redemption of Immanuel Velikovsky Paul Kedrosky Oct. 24/2007
  • 2. Far better an approximate answer to the right question , which is often vague , than an exact answer to the wrong question , which can always be made precise . J. Tukey (1962), Annals of Mathematics and Statistics 33:1-67
  • 6. First things first
  • 10.  
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  • 15. Why?
  • 16. If I am interested in, say, the distribution of the intensities of hurricanes, I cannot just “collect data more frequently”: I will just have to wait for the next hurricane to arrive. Source: R. Rebonatto, Plight of the Fortune-Tellers (2007)
  • 17. Catastrophism vs. Uniformitarianism
  • 18. With correlations growing across all strategies, alt asset firms are in a social network ... they just didn’t know it .
  • 20. A putative 100 mile long by 10 mile wide (160 × 16 km) wildfire reported in 1889 was reconstructed to an area of chaparral 40 times smaller … Source: Goforth and Minnich, 1996, Ecological Applications , p. 779-790
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  • 26. Tiger Woods & .400 hitters
  • 27.  
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  • 30. Blind spots , predictability and the right wall of human performance
  • 31.  
  • 32.  
  • 33. Errors of Nature , Sports and Monsters correct our understanding in regard to ordinary things, and reveal general forms . Francis Bacon, Novum Organum