The Future of the Future

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Whither IT? Disruptive change is shaking IT industry to the core. What are the investable trends?

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The Future of the Future

  1. 1. The Future of the Future Whither IT? Paul Kedrosky February 20, 2007
  2. 2. Some Discussion “What Ifs” • What if … – A lot of what we know is wrong • Corporate IT isn’t dead • Storage isn’t over • Microsoft doesn’t matter • Google isn’t all-powerful • Consumers aren’t that hard to market to • Telecom is set for a resurgence
  3. 3. Some Contrarian “What Ifs” • What if … – A lot of what is ‘hot’ isn’t • RSS • Photo sharing • Social networks • YouTubes of – Some things are gone forever • Binary apps • Siloed enterprise apps
  4. 4. Some Things to Look For • Lightweight modular software – Mash-ups using SOA versus monolithic enterprise apps • Short sales cycle – 3-9 months at most • Disruptive technology or business solution – Create new markets – Or, transform a $10B market to $1B • And the usual – People and market – Growth and momentum
  5. 5. Gartner 2007 Overview
  6. 6. Consumers: Pace of Diffusion
  7. 7. Consumer Technologies Took Walkman 10 years to reach same cumulative sales milestone!
  8. 8. Open Source
  9. 9. Traffic Changes • Significant increase in traffic • Increase in per-flow bandwidth • Increase in per-flow duration
  10. 10. Network Snapshot • Companies – Limelight CDN estimates 150Gbps traffic (just launched terrabyte network) – YouTube 20Gbps within first year, going to 80Gbps build just for near-term growth • Trends – Many analysts “conservatively” forecasting near-term traffic growth of 75% y-o-y
  11. 11. Surprised in the Enterprise
  12. 12. Misplaced Priorities?
  13. 13. Slow E2.0
  14. 14. Consumers & Mobile By 2010 there will exist about 5 billion "mobile endpoints," or devices ranging from digital music players and camera phones to gaming consoles and Web-enabled cars.
  15. 15. Sensors & Ubiquitous Computing Just as the personal computer was a symbol of the ’80s, and the symbol of the ’90s is the World Wide Web, the next nonlinear shift, is going to be the advent of cheap sensors. -Paul Saffo, Institute for the Future
  16. 16. Online Advertising
  17. 17. Spam & Zombies
  18. 18. “Out There” Stuff • “Data-aware” computing – Scientific workflows automatically migrate towards systems where the required datasets already reside or can be quickly obtained • High Throughput Genomics – Next generation sequencing technologies causing massive increase in the sheer volume of data available to researchers – A single lab machine produces around 1 billion bases per day – Data centers can’t keep up • Predictive and systems biology – Increasing trend toward data-driven drug discovery
  19. 19. paul@kedrosky.com

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