The document discusses 645 Ventures' approach to investing in exceptional software companies. It begins with an overview of 645 Ventures and its focus on data-driven investing. It then uses Tom Brady's unlikely NFL career as a case study to illustrate lessons for evaluating entrepreneurs beyond superficial metrics. Specifically, it highlights the importance of looking at factors like resilience, leadership, and performance in pressure situations. The document concludes by outlining 645 Ventures' process for systematically evaluating founders, teams, and company metrics to identify high-growth software investment opportunities.
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A G E N D A
▸ Introduction and Background
▸ Tom Brady Case Study
▸ Data-Driven Investing in Software Companies
▸ What We Look for in Companies and Founders
▸ Investing in LeagueApps
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C O N F I D E N T I A L | T R A D E S E C R E T
645 Ventures is a seed stage firm that applies a data-intensive, growth stage investing lens to
sourcing, due diligence, and value creation for fast-growing, early-stage companies.
645 Voyager (our proprietary software platform) complements strategic relationships with top VCs
and Cornell Tech to assist us in identifying high-potential companies that can each return our fund.
Geographic Focus: (Top 3 Venture Markets) New York, Boston, Bay Area
Sector Focus: Enterprise SaaS & Infrastructure as a Service, Nascent markets: Computer Vision,
AI, AR/VR, Marketplaces & Consumer Internet
Notable LPs: Some of the top venture capital investors in the industry, including GPs at
Andreessen Horowitz, First Round Capital, OpenView Ventures, Union Square Ventures
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W H A T C A N T O M B R A D Y T E A C H U S A B O U T
I N V E S T I N G I N E N T R E P R E N E U R S ?
▸ Fact: Tom Brady was drafted with the
199th pick in the 2000 NFL Draft. He was
the 7th quarterback selected in that draft.
▸ Fact: Tom Brady is the only QB to win
five Super Bowls.
▸ Fact: Tom Brady is considered by many
to be the biggest steal in NFL draft
history.
▸ Question: What did NFL scouts fail to
measure about Tom Brady? What can
this failure teach us about evaluating and
investing in exceptional software
companies and teams?
5. D O N ’ T J U D G E A B O O K B Y I T S C O V E R
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T O M B R A D Y ’ S C O L L E G E P E R F O R M A N C E
COLLEGE PERFORMANCE:
▸ Despite only starting for two years, Brady finished 3rd in
Michigan history in pass attempts and completions, 4th in yards
and completion percentage, and 5th in touchdown passes.
▸ Record: 20 wins, 5 losses as a starter (won 80% of games).
▸ Won two bowl games.
▸ Nicknamed “the comeback kid” – Brady continually brought
Michigan back in close games
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION:
▸ Ability to win
▸ Precise passing ability and passing accuracy
▸ Good arm
▸ Strong performance in pressure situations
▸ Overcomes adversity
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T O M B R A D Y A T T H E N F L C O M B I N E
2000 NFL COMBINE:
▸ Brady performed poorly on every combine test
▸ He ran a 5.28 40 time, one of the worst times ever run by a QB
▸ His vertical leap was 24.5 inches, also terrible
NFL$Combine$Performance:$QB$Comparison:
Player 40:Dash 20:Dash 10:Dash Vertical Broad Shuttle 3:Cone
Andrew'Luck 4.67 36 10'04" 4.28 6.8
Robert'Griffin'III 4.41 39 10'
Tom'Brady 5.28 2.94 1.7 24'1/2 08'03" 4.38 7.2
Drew'Brees 4.83 2.75 1.66 32 08'09" 4.21 7.09
Aaron'Rodgers 4.71 2.75 1.65 34'1/2 09'02" 7.39
Tom$Brady$Rank Last Last Last Last Last Last 2nd$to$Last
Article: “Tom Brady May be the Worst QB in the history of the NFL,
according to NFL Combine Numbers”
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N F L S C O U T E V A L U A T I O N
▸ Draft Report on Brady: “Poor build. Skinny. Lacks great
physical stature and strength. Lacks mobility and ability to
avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can’t drive the
ball downfield. Does not throw a really tight spiral. System
type player who can get exposed if forced to ad-lib. Gets
knocked down easily”
▸ Steve Mariucci (49ers Coach): “[Brady] looked like he
hadn’t ever seen a weight room. Ran a 5.2 something, one
of the slowest QBs in the combine… He had an OK arm”
▸ Tom Brady Response: “What the hell do these people
know? That sounds like Joe Montana right there”
Key Idea: The NFL Combine Measures the Wrong Things
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S C O U T S O V E R L O O K E D T H E I N T A N G I B L E S
▸ Tremendous Resilience: In his
freshman year in high school, Brady
was the backup QB on a team that
went 0-8. He started his career 7th on
the Michigan QB depth chart.
▸ Leadership Ability: “There is no
greater leader in intercollegiate
athletics than Tom Brady” (Michigan
Coach Lloyd Carr)
▸ Responds to Pressure: Played better
when the game was on the line
▸ Love of the Game: Always first to
practice. Always in the film room.
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W H A T T O M B R A D Y T E A C H E S U S A B O U T I N V E S T I N G I N
E X C E P T I O N A L S O F T W A R E C O M P A N I E S
▸ Looks can be deceiving: Beware of superficial pattern-matching;
look more deeply at what drives the entrepreneur
▸ Look for predictable performance metrics
▸ When evaluating entrepreneurial teams, place a premium on
resourcefulness, scrappiness, and ability to overcome adversity
▸ Avoid herd mentality
▸ Use analytics to determine which qualities are consistently
undervalued
▸ Measure the right things; don’t apply tests that have nothing to
do with actual performance
▸ You can’t measure heart, but you can observe how it manifests
itself
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C O N F I D E N T I A L | T R A D E S E C R E T
T R A D I T I O N A L E A R L Y - S T A G E I N V E S T I N G L O O K S A L O T
L I K E O L D - S C H O O L S C O U T I N G
Venture capital investors “know it when they see it”
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C O N F I D E N T I A L | T R A D E S E C R E T
W E A P P L Y A M O N E Y B A L L A P P R O A C H T O E A R L Y - S T A G E
I N V E S T I N G
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C O N F I D E N T I A L | T R A D E S E C R E T
E V O L U T I O N O F D A T A - D R I V E N D E A L S O U R C I N G
▸ Network-driven sourcing
▸ Largely constrained by geography
▸ Limited data signals; primarily “gut feel”
investing
▸ Inability to systematically cover industries
HI STO RI CAL
CHARACTERI STI CS
▸ Outbound deal sourcing
▸ Broad startup coverage across
geographies
▸ Data signals collected manually
▸ Systematic coverage of industries
NEW CHARACTERI STI CS
▸ Outbound + network-based deal sourcing
▸ Broad startup coverage across
geographies
▸ Data signals collected via database APIs
▸ Systematic coverage of industries
EARLY STAGE GROWTH STAGE
EVOLUTION OF EARLY STAGE
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K E Y E L E M E N T S O F 6 4 5 V E N T U R E S
We define growth seed as rapidly-growing
software and Internet companies with
customer/user traction, where team, market,
and investor characteristics evidence a large
potential opportunity
▸ Target market opportunity: $1B or greater
▸ Target revenue size: $500k to $5m
▸ Target round size: $750k to $3m
UNBEATABLE
FRAMEWORK
ALGORITHMIC SCORING,
PATTERN RECOGNITION,
AUTOMATION
RELATIONSHIP-BUILDING,
CREAIVITY
INSITITUITIONAL
MEMORY, EFFICIENCY,
SCALABILITY
HUMAN
INTERACTION
SOFTWARE
+
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We apply software at each stage of our investment process (sourcing, evaluation,
and value-add) to enable a far more scalable investment model at the growth seed
stage.
▸ We apply an outbound sourcing and
evaluation approach
▸ We are typically the first or one of the first
institutional investors in a deal, and we can
follow or invest alongside angels and angel
groups
Our in-house engineering team manages a proprietary data platform that tracks and
analyzes startup data signals, covering team, growth, market, and investor characteristics
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W H Y I N V E S T I N S O F T W A R E ?
Software companies can grow with limited capital, and
produce externally observable performance metrics.
The data doesn’t often lie
WHAT WE LOOK FOR:
▸ Exceptional founders with track records of success
▸ Sticky products with low customer churn
▸ Rapid revenue growth with low cash burn
▸ Strong sales economics: LTV >> CAC
▸ Large addressable market opportunity (>$1B)
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H O W W E E V A L U A T E S T A R T U P F O U N D E R S
WHAT WE LOOK FOR IN FOUNDERS:
▸ Objective evidence of performance
▸ Historical evidence of founder commitment and
leadership
▸ Skills that are well-tuned to the specific entrepreneurial
opportunity (“can’t see this person doing anything else”)
▸ “Love of the game”; passion for what they do
▸ Winning Attitude
WHAT WE AVOID IN FOUNDERS:
▸ “Looks the part”
▸ Lack of commitment
▸ Clear holes in the team
▸ Low ethical/moral orientation
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H O W W E E V A L U A T E F O U N D E R S W I T H D A T A
▸ Commitment: How long have the founders worked together?
▸ Domain expertise: What have the founders done before? What
level of domain expertise do they have?
▸ Evidence of leadership ability
▸ Previous successes
▸ Ability to Recruit: Who have the founders recruited to join their
team?
▸ Strong Culture: What is it like to walk around the company’s
office?
▸ Attention to Detail and Responsiveness
▸ No Major Holes in the Team
WE APPLY A POINTS SYSTEM TO FOUNDING TEAMS (“TEAM ALPHA”)
AND WE SCORE ALL OF THE CHARACTERISTICS LISTED ABOVE
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H O W W E E V A L U A T E C O M P A N Y P E R F O R M A N C E D A T A
▸ Evidence of Traction: Key customer wins, employee growth
▸ Revenue growth
▸ Performance metrics: revenue retention, payback period,
LTV/CAC ratio
▸ Quality of business model: gross margins, net margins
▸ Customer affinity for a company’s product: Net promoter
score
▸ Productivity of sales and marketing operation
▸ Size of addressable market: $1B or greater
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I D E A S F O R E N T R E P R E N E U R S T O R E M E M B E R
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