This document presents ADWEC's electricity and water demand forecasts for 2009-2030. It discusses key factors influencing demand such as the global financial crisis and new exports/demands. The electricity forecast shows steady demand growth. The water forecast accounts for constraints in water networks that limit supply. ADWEC uses the forecasts to plan new generation and network capacity needed to satisfy future demand.

1. Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning & Studies Directorate Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company (ADWEC) Thursday 30th April 2009 Telephone: +971 (2) 694 3816 Fax: +971 (2) 642 5773 keithmiller@adwec.ae www.adwec.ae ADWEC (Winter 2008 / 2009) Electricity & Water Demand Forecast 2009 - 2030

3. Introduction

6. Key Recent Demand Developments 1. Global Financial Crisis (GFC) When this forecast was being prepared in late 2008 / early 2009 the full impact of the GFC on ADWEC’s demand forecast was not fully known. Demand forecast based on available information in late 2008 / early 2009 of impact of GFC. ADWEC Winter 2009 / 2010 demand forecast will fully reflect impact of GFC on electricity / water demand. 2. Inclusion of significant additional exports to Northern Emirates . 3. Inclusion of significant additional ADNOC electricity demands . 4. Release of UPC’s Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 in September 2007. 5. Releasing of surplus oil revenues for major infrastructure developments and industrial expansion (e.g. KPIZ / Zonescorp). 6. Changes in land ownership laws during 2005.

7. ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecasts 2009 - 2030

19. ADWEC Water Demand Forecasts 2009 - 2030

31. THANK YOU

32. Annex ADWEC Planning Process

33. Implementation Schedules Years IWPPs require up to 4 years from decision to proceed to completion

34. Existing 400kV circuits Existing 220kV circuits Existing 132kV circuits ADNOC 132kV circuits Power Station Sub-Station ADNOC Oil & Gas Plant EMAL Smelter Under Construction Planned Planned line cut Abu Dhabi Bu Hasa (ADCO Load) 109 MW Existing Capacity as of 31/12/2009 along with ADNOC, ENG, GCC & EMAL interconnection. 1,615 MW 186 MW 10,110 MW Asab (ADCO Load) Liwa Sila Shuweihat Jebel Dhanna Mirfa Tarif Dhabiya (ADCO Load) Ramah Wagan Sanaiya Al Ain Mina (ADST) Shahama Samha Hayer Dubai TOTAL (GROSS MW) Khazna 4,651 MW 2,433 MW To Salwa (GCC interconnection) Dhaid Al Oha/Al Foa To Al Wassit (GCC interconnection) Dahma Arad Mazyad Al Ain SW E48 Mussaffah GIC Central Rumaitha (ADCO Load) Liwa West (Eradah) September 26, 2009 Ghayathi ONGS (ADCO Load) Bab (ADCO Load) Hameem (ADCO Load) AGD II (ADCO Load) Ruwais 900 – 1,150 MW (2010) 250 MW (2009) 400 MW (2010) 1,150 MW 861 MW Ajman Umm Al Quwain Ras Al Khaimah To Dubai (ENG interconnection) Warsan Taweelah Qidfa Sweihan UAN Wathba Bahia Airport Khowr Khawer Tawian Saja Madinat Zayed X Salamat Zakher 256 MW Shamkha 1,150 MW (2010) Umm El Oush (Oct 2009) EMAL 2,220 MW (2010) Delma (Nov2009) (May 2009) Fujairah Khorfakkan Gurfa Fujairah Dibba Hamariya SEWA Network Galailah (Nov2009) Yas Island Sahil (ADCO Load) Habshan (ADCO Load) NGI Plant (ADCO Load) GUP-TAKREER (ADNOC) 676 MW DEWA Network Sharjah Saadiyat ADWEC Electricity Map

35. 39 MGD 684 MGD 101 MGD 1600 mm 1400 mm 1200 mm 1000 mm 900 mm 800 mm 600 mm 500 mm Pumping Station (PS) Desalination Plant Proposed PS Under Construction / Proposed Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2009, excluding isolated Plants and Al Ain Network. TOTAL Abu Dhabi Dubai Al Ain ADPS Mirfa Shuweihat UNIT 5 Shoubaisi Abu Al Abyad Tarif New Mirfa PS Madinat Zayed Liwa Wagan Jurf Sila PS1 PS2 Sih Shoib Jebel Ali 297 MGD Qidfa Tanks Ghayathi Adla 102 MGD September 26, 2009 UNIT 3 Sweihan UAN Units I & II Al-Saad Ajban Taweelah Sharjah Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah Jazirat Al-Hamra Tap Off 12 Ramah Al-Maha Forests 145 MGD DETAIL A REEM ISLAND TO UNIT 3 N-4381 Aug 2010 N-5805 May 2010 N-3850 Sep 2009 N-6139 Jul 2011 N-5807 Jul 2009 N-4268 Dec 2010 N-6820/6821 July 2011 Bani Yass Mussaffah Samha Lulu Island UNIT 4 Tao Off 9A ADWEC Water Map ADPS UAN UNIT 1 UNIT 2 LULU ISLAND SADIYAT ISLAND 145 MGD

36. ADWEC Planning Overview Demand Forecast (including losses & auxiliary consumption) Add Reserve Margin (Electricity GSS LOLE 0.1 / Water DSS 1 day in 50 years) = Required Capacity Forecast Existing / Planned / Under Construction Capacity + Versus = New Capacity Requirements

38. ` ADWEC Demand Forecasting Process Population Inputs: 1. Urban Planning Council (UPC) 2. Mega Projects’ Population Forecasts 3. 2005 Census 4. Government Organisations 5. ADWEC Historical Population Forecasts Residential / Commercial Industrial Inputs: 1. Zonescorp 2. ADBIC 3. Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ) 4. ADNOC / GASCO / ADCO etc Industrial Sector ADWEA Company Demand Forecasts: 1. AADC 2. ADDC 3. TRANSCO (e.g. transmission losses) 4. ADWEC Auxiliary Consumption All Sectors Transmission Code Other Demand Forecasts / Inputs: 1. Mega Projects’ Developers Forecasts 2. Mega Projects’ Master plans 3. Government Organisations 4. Other Emirates Demand Forecasts 5. ADWEC Assumptions All Sectors Mega Projects / Non-Mega Projects Other Emirates Inputs ADWEC Electricity & Water Demand Forecasts

40. Abu Dhabi Metropolitan Area Source: Urban Planning Council – Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 Population Forecasts ADWEC’s Base Demand Forecasts now based on UPC’s Plan Abu Dhabi 2030

42. ADWEC Base Electricity Methodology for Residential / Commercial Mega Projects Mega Projects’ Developers Connected Load Forecasts ADWEC Demand / Diversity Factors Developers’ Connected Load x ADWEC Demand / Diversity Factors = Unadjusted Developers’ Mega Projects Peak Demand Forecast Peak Demand Forecast Adjustment Factors for 2013 / 2020 / 2030 UPC’s Total Population Forecasts versus Mega Projects Developers’ Total Population Forecasts ADWEC Base Electricity Demand Forecast Mega Projects’ Population Curve Pro-rated to obtain Intermediate Years ADWEC Mega Project Implementation Lags (based on Site Visits / Progress / Past Experience etc)