Market Update

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Market update slideshow for BHG Mason-McDuffie Real Estate Sales Meeting July 2, 2014

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  • http://www.realtor.org/reports/state-by-state-economic-impact-of-real-estate-activity
  • www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/comments-on-housing-and-existing-home.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
  • http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx#
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.html
  • http://pultegroupinc.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2014/PulteGroup-Home-Index-Survey-Americans-Appetite-To-Buy-New-Homes-Increases-As-View-On-Economy-Trends-More-Positive/default.aspx
  • http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/datanotes/pdf/housing-insights-040714.pdf
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
  • http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29815-wall-street-home-price-appreciation-still-expected-to-hit-7
  • http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic-hpi-february-2014.pdf
  • http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/MARCH-2014-RCI.pdf
  • http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/MARCH-2014-RCI.pdf
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx#
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
    http://money.msn.com/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/83930_cshomeprice-release-0325.pdf?force_download=true
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf
    http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf
    http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf
    http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf
  • LeadingRE Conference 2014
  • Market Update

    1. 1. This map outlines the total expenditures that result from a single home sale. Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale
    2. 2. Existing Home Sales NAR 4/2014
    3. 3. 100 = Historically Healthy Level Pending Home Sales NAR 4/2014
    4. 4. Bill McBride Calculated Risk A decline in existing home sales doesn't mean the housing recovery is over. Far from it! We need to look at the composition of sales (distressed vs. conventional). The percent of conventional sales are increasing. That is a positive sign.
    5. 5. Total Sales Year-Over-Year: 12 Month Sum % increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
    6. 6. FreddieMac Housing is stronger today than at any point since the Great Recession began and hit bottom in 2009.
    7. 7. 50% 16% 13% Housing Starts House Prices Home Sales Improvement in Housing since bottom in 2009 FreddieMac 4/2014
    8. 8. FreddieMac 4/2014 20% 3%0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Housing Starts Home Sales Projections for Housing in 2014
    9. 9. Has your interest in purchasing a home increased over the last year? Millennial Buyers Yes – 59% Move-up Buyers Yes – 45% Pulte 5/2014
    10. 10. Americans still aspire to buy second homes and have contributed to the growth of the market consistently since its bottom in 2009... As the population continues to age, we expect people to continue to use their savings to buy second homes, thereby contributing to a segment of the mortgage market that will continue to grow in the years to come. FannieMae
    11. 11. 30% 24% 24% 14% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds Best Long Term Investment Gallup 4/2014
    12. 12. Gallup 4/2014
    13. 13. 25% 24% 23% 21% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% Real Estate Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Gold Bonds Best Long Term Investment 18-29 year olds Gallup 4/2014
    14. 14. 30% 28% 23% 10% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds Best Long Term Investment 50-64 year olds Gallup 4/2014
    15. 15. Best Long Term Investment By Income Category 28% 26% 38% 31% 26% 18% 13% 25% 30% 17% 16% 7%7% 6% 7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Less than $30K $30K-$74,999 $75K and over Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds Gallup 4/2014
    16. 16. PRICES
    17. 17. “We leave our 2014 projections for home prices (up 5-7% for the year) unchanged.” Morgan Stanley “Our base case projection for 2014 US home price appreciation is unchanged at 7%.” Barclays HousingWire 4/2014 Home Prices Going Forward
    18. 18. CoreLogic 3/2014 “Home prices nationwide remain 16.9% below their peak, which was set in April 2006.”
    19. 19. Prices Compared to Peak w/ Date of Peak
    20. 20. % of Respondents Reporting Appraisal Problems 34% 31% 29% 24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Realtors Confidence Index 4/2014
    21. 21. Appraisal Issues/Problems March 2014 Realtors Confidence Index 4/2014
    22. 22. Distressed Properties
    23. 23. 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 14% 21% NAR 4/2014
    24. 24. Foreclosure Inventory by State
    25. 25. Months of Shadow Inventory
    26. 26. Share of Mortgages with Negative Equity
    27. 27. RETURN ON INVESTMENT 51.3 34.9 4.3 65.4 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate January 2000 – May 2014 MSNMoney.com, Case Shiller
    28. 28. 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 4/2014
    29. 29. 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 4/2014
    30. 30. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 4/2014
    31. 31. Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 4/2014
    32. 32. 3.25 3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5 4.75 2013 - 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 4/2014
    33. 33. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 2015 2Q Fannie Mae 4.9% Freddie Mac 5.3% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.2% National Assoc of Realtors 5.5% 4/2014
    34. 34. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 2 Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale http://www.realtor.org/reports/state-by-state-economic-impact-of-real-estate-activity 5,6,9,27, 33,34,35, 36 Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, 12,575 Homes Sell, % Distressed Property, Year- over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory, Homes for Sale, http://www.realtor.org/ 7 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/comments-on-housing-and-existing-home.html 8,28,29, 30 Total Sales Year-Over-Year, Foreclosure Inventory, Months Shadow Inventory, Share of Mortgages http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx# 10,11,12 Freddie Mac Data http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.htm 13 Interest in Purchasing - Pulte Homes Survey http://pultegroupinc.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2014/PulteGroup-Home-Index-S 14 Fannie Mac Quote http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/datanotes/pdf/housing-insights-040714.pdf 15 – 19, 49 Best Long Term Investment - Gallup Poll Slides http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx 21 Morgan Stanley & Barclays Quotes http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29815-wall-street-home-price-appreciation-still-expected-to-hit-7 22, 23, Corelogic Quote, Prices Compared to Peak http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic-hpi-february-2014.pdf 24, 25 % Reported Appraisal Problems, Appraisal Issues March 2014 http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/MARCH-2014-RCI.pdf
    35. 35. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 32 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://money.msn.com/ 37,38 Year-over-Year Change in Price, Case-Shiller HPI https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice- assets/resources/public/documents/83930_cshomeprice-release-0325.pdf? force_download=true 39 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 40 Mortgage Rate Projections http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast- 1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf 44,47 Guy Kawasaki & Seth Godin Quote LeadingRE Conference 2014
    36. 36. To provide value, real estate agents must not only provide information but also insights into that information. Guy Kawasaki Silicon Valley Author, Speaker, Investor and Business Advisor
    37. 37. It not about having the dots. It’s about connecting the dots!! Seth Godin Author, Entrepreneur, Marketer and Public Speaker

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