Demographic Transition and Population Theories Seminar Summary

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
THEORIES OF POPULATION
Ms. LYDIA EVELYN.F
MSC NURSING I YEAR

GENERAL OBJECIVE
• At the end of the seminar students will be able to gain adequate knowledge on
the topic demographic transition and theories of population

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE
• Student will be able to
Define demographic transition’
List and explain the demographic stages
Interpret the demographic transition model
Appraise and compare the population pyramid along with the stages
Explain the historical studies
Critique the evaluation
Explain second demographic transition
Enumerate future population trends
List and explain each theories of population in detail

INTRODUCTION
• Historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in Societies with minimal
technology, Education ( women) and economic development TO Low birth
rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, Education and
Economic development And the stages between these two scenarios.

Scholars debate
whether industrialization and higher Income lead to lower
population,
OR
whether lower populations lead to industrialization and
higher Incomes ?

Definition
WARREN C. Thompson, Frank w Notestein.
A historical process of change which accounts the trends in
births, death and population growth occurred in today's industrialized societies,
especially European societies.

Definition by Dolan
“Demographic transition refers to a population cycle that
begins with a fall in death rate, continues with a phase of Rapid population
growth and concludes with a decline in birth rate”

STAGE ONE
• Pre- Industrial society, death rates and birth rates were both high
These rates fluctuated rapidly according to natural events such as
• Drought
• Diseases
to produce a relatively constant and young population.
• Family planning and contraception were virtually non-existent.

• Death rates matched birth rates exceeding 40 per 1000 per year
• Children contributed to the economy of the household from an early age by
carrying water, firewood and messages, carrying for younger siblings, sweeping
washing dishes, preparing food and working infields.
• There was no much education or entertainment expenses.
• Thus the total cost of raising children barely exceeded the contribution to the
household.

• During this stage, the society evolve in accordance with Malthusian paradigm - with
Population essentially determined by the food supply.
• Eg: - Any fluctuations in food supply tend to translate directly into population
fluctuations
EG: - Famines - Resulting In significant mortality which are frequent.
• According to Edward, Revocatus ( 2016) - This is the earlier stage of demographic
transition in the world
• which is characterized by primary activities such as small fishing activities, farming
pastoralizing and petty businesses.

STAGE TWO :
• Leads to fall in death rates and increase in population
• This stage was initiated in the agricultural revolution of the 18Th century and this
stage was quite slow
• The falls in death rates in developing Countries started to be faster in the 20Th
century
• Eg: - Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq and much of Sub - Saharan Africa - these places
experienced falls in death rates.

• Decline in the Death rate is due to two factors.
1. Improvements in the food supply brought about by higher yields in agricultural
practices and better transportation reduce death due to starvation and lack of
water.
• Agricultural improvements included .
• Corporation rotation , selective breeding and seed drill technology

2. Significant improvements in public health reduce mortality especially in
childhood
• There were Improvements in water supply, sewerage, food handling and general
personal hygiene, growing scientific knowledge of the Causes of disease,
Improved education and social status of mothers.
• A consequence of the decline in mortality in stage 2 is an increasingly rapid
growth in population growth / explosion
• the gap between Deaths and births grows wider and wider .

• This change in population occurred in north western Europe during 19Th century due
to industrial revolution
• During the second half of the Twentieth century Less-developed countries entered
stage Two

• Another characteristic of stage Two of the demographic transition is a change
in the age structure of the population.
• In 1st stage- Majority of deaths are concentrated in the first 5- 10 years of life.
therefore more than anything else, the decline in death rates in second stage
entails the increasing survival of children and a growing population.
• The bottom of the age pyramid widen first where, children, teenagers and
infants here are the accelerating the population growth rate.

STAGE - 3
• Death rates are low and birth rates diminish
• Due to enhanced economic conditions, expansion in women's status, education and
access to contraception.
• Deviance in birth rate fluctuates from nation to nation.
• Stage three moves the population towards stability through decline in birth hate.

• As childhood death continues to fall and income increase parents become confident that
children will suffice to help in family business and care for them at old age.
• Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the
values of children in Rural society
• In both rural and urban areas, the cost of Children to parents is exacerbated by the
introduction of compulsory education acts ,increased need to educate children so they
take up a respected position in society.
• Children are increasingly prohibited under from working outside the household to do
domestic work.

• Even In equatorial Africa, children ( age under 5 now require school uniforms).
• In India??
• Anganwadi
• Parents started to consider it a duty to buy children books and toys, partly due to
education
• Increasing literacy and employment lowers the acceptance of child bearing and
motherhood as measures of the status of women
• working women have less time to raise Children - This is particularly an issue
Where fathers traditionally make little or no contribution to child-raising

• Improvements in contraceptive technology are a major factor.
• demographic trap - " quality of health care improves and death rates falls but birth
rates still remain high, resulting in a period of high population growth. which is coined
as demographic trap
• countries that have witnessed a fertility decline of over 50% from their pre-transition
levels included
• Costa Rica
• Jamaica
• Mexico
• India
• sri lanka etc. ..

• countries that have experienced fertility decline of 25- 50% Included
e.g. – Egypt
Zimbabwe
• countries that have experienced a futility decline of less than 25%
Eg : - Sudan
Afghanistan.

STAGE FOUR
• Birth and death rates are both long leading to a total population stability
• Death rates are low for a number of reasons,
 Low rates of diseases.
 Highes production of food.
• Birth rate is low because people have more Opportunities to choose if they want
children , this is made possible by improvements in contraception or women gaining
more Independence and work opportunities

Example of few countries that were at this Stage ( TFR 2 - 2.5) in 2015 are
E.g.
• Argentina
• Bahrain
• Nepal
• Libya
• Malaysia etc.

STAGE FIVE
• Original DemographicTransition model has four stages, but additional stages have
been proposed
• Both more fertile and less - fertile futures have been claimed as stage five.
• some countries have (sub- replacement fertility ) That is below 2. 1- 2.2 children per
women.

• Many European and East Asian countries now have higher death rates than birth rates
• Due to individual natural selection or cultural selection birth rates may raise again.
• some religions, cultures have a higher birth rate

POPULATION PYRAMID :
• It is called as Age - sex pyramid
• Graphical illustration of the distribution of a Population of (country or region of the
world) by age groups and gender.
• It takes the Shape of a pyramid when the population is growing
• Males are shown on the left and female on the right
• Measured in absolute numbers or as a percentage to the total population.
• It is a continuous stacked- histogram bars, horizontal bar diagram.

• Population size - x-axis ( horizontal )
• Age-groups - represented on the y- axis ( vertical)
• In the demographic transition model, the size and shape of population pyramid varies

Stage one
the pyramids have the most defined shape that is ideal big base and a skinny top

STAGE TWO
• the pyramid looks similar but starts to widen in the middle age

STAGE THREE
The pyramid start to round our and look similar in shape to a tombstone

STAGE FOUR
• Decease in the younger age groups this causes the base of the widened pyramid
to narrow.

STAGE FIVE
the pyramid starts to take on the shape of a kite as the base continues to decrease

• more developed countries can be found in stages three, four and five, while the least
developed countries have a population represented by the pyramids in stages one and
two
• Each country will have a different population Pyramid

Historical studies
Britain
• Between 1750 and 1975 England experienced the transition from high levels of both
mortality and fatality to low levels .
• Major factor was the sharp decline in the death rate due to infections diseases

Ireland
• The recent changes have mirrored inward Changes in Irish society, with respect to
family Planning, women in the work force, the Sharply declining power of the catholic
church and the emigration factor.

France
• France is one of the developed nations which migratory balance is rather weak, due to
residential facilities, economic growth and urban dynamism, which yield several
distinct regional profiles. which eventually led to the issue of town and country
planning

Asia
• Focuses most on seven countries- Taiwan in south korea, Thailand, Malaysia,
Indonesia, china and vietnam.
• strong government pressure
• An effective, often authoritarian , local administrative system can provide a
framework for promotion and services in health, education and family planning

India
• It is nearly 40 years behind in the demographic transition process compared to EU
countries, Japan etc.

Korea ( south )
• Income growth and public investment In health caused mortality to fall which
suppressed fertility and promoted education
• Industrialization, skill premium, and losing gender wage gap further induced parents
to opt for child quality I
• Expanding demand for education was accommodated by an active public school
building program.

china
• High death rate and low fertility rate from 1959 to 1961 due to greater famine
• later in 1970's the birth rate increased and mortality rate started declining due to
economic improvement.

Madagascar
• The impact of the state was felt through natural forces and it varied overtime
such as climate, famine and diseases

Russia
• They were depressed by the 1931-33 famine , crashed due to the second
word was in 1941
• In the1980's and 1990s, Russia underwent a unique demographic transition.
observers call it a " demographic catastrophe".
• The no of deaths exceeded the no of birth, life expectancy fell sharply ( esp for
males) and the more of suicides increased.

United states.
• 1800 - 1940 - high futility rate with an average of seven children born for an
white women
• But Today the U.S is recognized as having both low fertility and mortality rates.
• specifically, birth ratio stand at 14 / 1000 per year and death rates at 8/ 1000
per year.

Effect of age structure on demography
• Today the world has the largest generation of young people in history with 3. 6
billion people under the age of 30 world wide .
• A populations age structure deeply affects development opportunities and plays a
major role in security and governance challenges
• All countries, populations can be classified into one of four major age structure
types based on their progression through the demographic transition

1. A very young age structure
2. youthful age structure
3. Transitional age structure
4. mature age structure

Avery young age structure population
• in which two- thirds or more the population are younger than age 30

youthful age structure
• more than 60% of the population under age 30

youthful age structure
• more than 60 percent of the population under 30

Mature age structure
• Less than 45 %. of the country's population is under age 30

Critical evaluation
• Demography transition model is only a model and cannot necessarily predict the
future.
• It does however give an indication of what the future birth and death rates may be for an
underdeveloped country, together with the total population size.
• DTM does not account for any recent Phenomena such as AIDS or any other leading
source of mortality.
• DTM assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased
wealth.
• DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate.

Second Demographic Transition
• conceptual framework formulated in 1986 by Ron Lesthaeghe and Dirk van de kaa.
• They address the changes in the patterns of sexual and reproductive behaviour When
birth control pill and other cheap effective contraceptive methods such as the IUD
were adopted by the general population, to the present

• Motivations have changed from traditional and economic ones to those of self
realization
• Eg: - Increase in the number of women to not marry or have children,
• Increased child bearing by single mothers, increased participation of women in higher
and professional careers,
• Individualism and autonomy particularly of women
• long stable marriages are out, and divorce or separation are in.

Future population Trends
• the worlds population is more than three time larger than it was in the mid - twentieth
century
• the world's population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next
30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9-7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4
billion in the mid- 2080s

DAY OF EIGHT BILLION
• On 15 NOV 2022, the world's population reached 8 billion people
• a milestone in human development .
[ short video - on 8 billion strong - united Nations ]
https://youtu.be/6vL1_kCX6qg

china and India :
• Most populous countries china ( 1.4 billion ) and India ( 1.4 billion ) Remain the two
most populous countries of the world, both with more than1 billion people, each
representing nearly 18 % of the world population respectively
• over Around 2023, India is projected to take china
while china's population is projected to decrease by 48 million or around 2.7 percent
between 2019 and 2050

UNITED NATIONS ROLE IN POPULATION ISSUES ..
(70 years of Development - short video ]
https://youtu.be/mzFZPqAOofQ
• UN- Addresses through UN population Fund ( UNFPA ) and the UN population
Division of the Department of Economic and social affairs
• Assignment on UN population Fund ( UNFPA )
• world population Day - ???

• MAJOR THREE THEORIES
1. MALTHUSIAN THEORY
2. THE OPTIMUM THEORY OF POPULATION
3. THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

MALTHUSIAN THEORY
DEFINITION
• The Malthusian theory of population is a theory of exponential population
growth and arithmetic food supply growth
• Essay – “Principle of population”
• Preventative checks & positive checks

Doctrine
1. Population and food supply
• Population grow in geometric progression
E.g.: 2,10 , 50 , 250 , 1250 – common ratio is 5
• Food production increases in arithmetic progression
E.g.: 2, 5, 8 , 11, 14 , 17- common difference is 3

Conclusion
• Population will grow faster than the supply of food
Will lead to shortage of food

2. population control
• Higher population than the availability of food many people will die from the
shortage of food
• Correction is done in the form of
1. Positive checks ( Natural checks )
2. Preventative checks
These checks will bring the population back to the “ sustainable level”

POSITIVE CHECKS
• Natural checks
• Natural forces would correct the imbalance between food supply and
population growth
• Eg: flood , earthquakes and human made actions such as wars and famines

PREVENTATIVE CHECKS
• Family planning
• Late marriage
• Celibacy

CRITICISM
• In the western Europe population have grown but not at the rate malthus
predicted
• Food production has risen because of technology

APPLICABILITY
• Although the theory of Malthus proved somewhat, true in contemporary terms
this doctrine is not acceptable at all times.

OPTIMUM THEORY OF POPULATION
• Malthusian theory deals with the relationship between food supply and
population growth
• But this theory studies the relationship between population size and population
wealth

DEFINITION
• According to Dalton :
“ optimum population is that which gives the maximum income per head”

THEORY
• Population is the manpower needed to exploit the natural resources and
promote economic growth
• Optimum point is not reached – the nation shall remain unable to exploit the
natural resources to the maximum possible extent i.e. properly or fully
• Population crosses the optimum point - the nation shall not get the maximum
return
This is because the large population will create pressure on other resources so
the burden on those resources will become disproportionate

ASSUMPTION
• Population should be treated as a labour force
• Every increase in the labour force creates an opportunity to utilize the material
resources available in the country

• At the optimum point – the resources are properly and fully utilized
• It also helps in suitable division of labour resulting in very high national gross
production and per capita income.

DALTONS FORMULA
• Maladjustments are determined by the two variables
• 1. Ideal population level – o
• 2. actual population level – A
Maladjustment (M) = A-O
O
• If M > 1 = the country is overpopulated
• <1 = the country is underpopulated

SUPERIORITY OVER MALTHUSIAN THEORY
• The optimum theory is superior to the malthusian theory
• Why ???
• Because it studies the population problem in relation to the economic
conditions of a particular country
• Malthus had a narrow vision – food supply

CRITICISM
• Called as static short period theory
• It ignores changes in natural and human resources which affect per capita
income

CONCLUSION
• It is an economic concept
• It is the equilibrium between the population and resources

THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• REVIEW

CORNUCOPIAN THEORY
• Environmental problems faced by the society
• It can be solved by technology
• They reject the idea that
• Population growth projections are problematic and that earth has finite
resources and carrying capacity to solve the problem related to population

Population
• He rejects Thomas Malthus – human population growth
• Population growth might actually improve the human condition , given the
increase in goods and services over time

Resources
• They believe that technology can regenerate or replace any resources under
pressure
• Eg:
Rise of fiber optic cable as a replacement for metals , especially copper in the
communication lines

POPULATION DECLINE AND PRONATALISM
THEORY
• Birth rates in many industrial nations have slowed considerably
• Some nations are experiencing population decline
• Several more are projected to have population decline by 2050
• Spain is one of several European nations that have been experiencing a
population decline because of lower birth rates
• As a result Spain has adopted pronatalism policies to encourage to people to
have more children
• These nations have greater proportion of older people and a smaller
proportion of younger people.

DON BOGUE THEORY
• All societies are capable of regulating their populations
• Such regulation is a result of certain social circumstances and economic
conditions
• It is called as the theory of demographic regulation
• A society will naturally limit its own population in accordance to the earths
ability to support it.

CATTON THEORY
• It is about the carrying capacity
• If the number exceeds , then environmental damage will occur and this in time
will reduce the carrying capacity
• A sustainable economic system is the one that does not exceed the carrying
capacity
• During industrial revolution the earths carrying capacity underwent a period of
even greater growth
• Catton says “ we must learn to live in harmony with natural systems , taking
only those things that can be replaced and that do not destroy the earths life –
support systems

ESTER BOSERUPS THEORY OF AGRARIAN
CHANGE
• She focuses on agricultural change
• Population pressure as a major cause of change in land use , agricultural
technology , land tenure systems and settlement form
• Agricultural practices of various communities are determined by their
population size and density
• Eg :
In communities with low population density , people tend to use the land
intermittently , and fire is commonly used to clear fields as a way to restore
fertility to the soil.

CLUB OF ROME THEORY
• Club of rome model for global development was constructed to investigate five
major trends
1. Accelerating industrialization
2. Rapid population growth
3. Widespread malnutrition
4. Depletion of non renewable resources
5. Detoriating environment
• Club of rome is a non – profit , informal organization of intellectuals and
business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing global issues.

• They gave their first report on “ the limit of growth” that the economic growth
could not continue indefinitelty because of resource depletion

BIOLOGICAL THEORY OF POPULATION
• Based on biological aspects

DENSITY THEORY /SADLERS THEORY
• Called as law of population
• Inverse relationship between the density of population and the fecundity
• When population increases density will also increase

THOMAS DOUBLEDAYS DIET THEORY
• True law of population
• Inverse relationship between food supply and fecundity
• Three stages of food supply
Stage 1 :
The plethoric stage
• Having food supply where the fecundity is low
Stage 2 :
The deplethoric stage
• Food shortage and the fecundity is high
Stage 3 :
• When resources and fecundity both are equal

PEARLAND REEDS LOGISTIC THEORY
• Titled as the biology of population growth
• S shaped theory
• They believe that there will be high birth rate in poor people

GINNIS CIRCULAR THEORY
• Population growth impacts the social and national development
• It is called natural law theory – where he believes that only biological factors
are responsible for the increase

HERBERT SPENCERS THEORY
• Three stages
1. Rich – individualization is increased and genesis is low( developed condition)
2. Poor – individualization is low and genesis is high ( underdeveloped )
3. Medium – individualization and genesis both are equal ( developing
condition)

JOUSE DE CASTROS – PROTEIN CONSUMPTION
THEORY
• With increase in the protein consumption in diet , the fecundity will decrease
and it will increase with low protein content in the diet

SOCIALLY CAPILLARY THEORY
• The size of ones family , the higher ones social climbing opportunities.

CONCLUSION
Over population affects all of us as scarcity of food will increase , pollution will
increase and global warming becomes even more of a problem right now.
As nurses we can take the great responsibility in educating the society the
importance of the dangers involved in the population growth as how much as
we can !!!!

RECAP
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• Introduction
• Definition
• Demographic stages
• Demographic transition model
• Population pyramid
• Historical studies ( country wise )
• Effect of age structure on demography

• Critical evaluation
• Second demographic transition
• Future population trends
• Malthusian theory
• Optimum theory of population
• Demographic transition
• Cornucopian theory
• Population decline and pronatalism

• Don bogue
• Catton theory
• Ester boserup theory of agraian change
• Club of rome theory
Biological theory of population
• Density theory/sadlers theory
• Thomas doubledays diet theory
• Pearl and reeds logistic theory
• Ginnis circular theory
• Spencers theory

• Protein consumption theory
• Socially capillary theory
• Conclusion

BIBLIOGRAPHY
• Caldwell , johnc(1976)”toward a restatement of demographic transition
theory”.population and development review
• Thompson , warren s (1929) “population” american journal of sociology
• Mr.santra.p(2020).theory of demographic transition.geography paper.
http://haldiagovtcollege.org
• Agarwal.p ( 2022 february 3) , the demographic transition model. intelligent
economist. intelligent economist.com
• (2018) population pyramids of the world from 1950 to 2100.
http://www.populationpyramid.net
• http://en,m,wikipedia.org

• Lee.R (2006) the development of population history ( historical demography)
http://www.jstor.org
• Suryakant yadavet al (2014) understanding epidemiological transition in india
http://www.pubmed.gov
• Dr.garima singh (n.d) biological theories of population growth , university of
lucknow. http://ikouniv.ac.in
• Elizabeth, beatrice et al (2010) the effects of age structure on development.
http://wwwpopulationaction.org
• Natashkawtiah (n.d).top 3 theroirs of population .
http://www.economicdiscussion.net

• Ravirbhalwar(2021) textbook of community medicine(396-399).wolters kluwer
publication
• Kadri Am.IAPSM’s textbook of community medicine (198-200). jaypee
publications
• K park(2021) parks textbook of preventive and social medicine(560-
566)bhanot publications
• dashbijayalakshmi (2017) a comprehensive textbook of community health
nursing (333-337) jaypee publication.

Demographic Transition and Population Theories Seminar Summary

Demographic Transition and Population Theories Seminar Summary

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