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System dynamics modeling and its applications on urban environmental management

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System dynamics modeling and its applications on urban environmental management

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These slides are modified from a lecturette I presented as teaching demonstration to the Department of Environmental Science of Ateneo de Manila University.

These slides are modified from a lecturette I presented as teaching demonstration to the Department of Environmental Science of Ateneo de Manila University.

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System dynamics modeling and its applications on urban environmental management

  1. 1. System Dynamics Modeling and Its Applications on Urban Environmental Management Marion Micah R. Tinio Master of Science in Environmental Science 1
  2. 2. Outline • Systems Thinking • Feedback Loops • System Dynamics Modelling • Applications of SD Modelling in Urban Environmental Management 2
  3. 3. Systems Thinking Environmental issues involve phenomena consisting of interrelated components that change over time. 3
  4. 4. Characteristics of Systems Thinking 1. Begins with a global description, then move toward the specific. 2. Focuses on dynamic processes – changes over time 3. Seeks a closed-loop explanation – set scope and limitations; behavior of the system is only dependent on elements within system 4. Identifies feedback loops 5. Looks for checks, balances, and runaway processes. 6. Focuses on cause-effect relationships 4 Deaton and Winebrake (2000)
  5. 5. Resolving Environmental Issues • Environmental issues are complex and different elements have interrelationships. – OVERPOPULATION – URBANIZATION – CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION – RESOURCE MANAGEMENT 5
  6. 6. Feedback Loops • Definition – A closed-loop circle of cause and effect – Conditions in one part cause results elsewhere, which will act on the original conditions – Feedback loops help to understand which elements have high and low impacts to the system. 6
  7. 7. Types of Feedback Loops • Reinforcing (positive) • Balancing (negative) Adapted from Deaton and Winebrake (2000) and Morecroft (2010) + + + - - + - + 7
  8. 8. System dynamics modeling • Developed by Jay Forrester in the 1950s • A methodology in which simulation is governed entirely by changes over time, used for studying and managing complex feedback systems • When initial conditions are assigned for variables, the model would produce related consequences based on the initiation of action and flow of information. • It is used to understand how a system works and to predict its performance. 8
  9. 9. Systems have four components • A component of a system where something is accumulated. The contents may go up or down over time Reservoirs/Stocks • Activities that determine the values of reservoirs over time.Processes/Flows • System quantities that dictate the rates at which the processes operate and the reservoirs change Converters • The cause-effect relationships between system elements.Interrelationships Deaton and Winebrake 2000 9
  10. 10. Basic Elements of a System Dynamics Model Flow 1 Conv erter Stock Flow 2 • Feedbacks • Stock-flow relationships • Time delays between elements 10STELLA
  11. 11. Guzman et al. 2010 Waste Management in Tuguegarao City 11 Solid waste flow of the City was translated into a computer model for scenario simulation.
  12. 12. Guzman et al. 2010 Waste Management in Tuguegarao City 12 The SD model was run with the spatial distribution of waste in mind to simulate different scenarios of waste management.
  13. 13. Nasiri et al. 2012 Water reuse in Great Lakes Region Water reuse planning that involved various economic, technological, and environmental criteria over time 13
  14. 14. Guan et al. 2011 14 System dynamics modelling is a powerful tool for complex systems with interconnected components.
  15. 15. Guan et al. 2011 The study combined system dynamics and GIS for integrated dynamic and spatial assessments of sustainability of Chongqing City, China.. 15
  16. 16. Summary • Environmental issues cannot be simplified because of the interrelated components affecting the systems over time. • Basic elements of system dynamics modelling – Feedback loops – Stock-flow relationships – Time delays • System dynamics modelling is a frontier towards resolving Philippine environmental issues. 16

Editor's Notes

  • The SD model was run with the spatial distribution of waste in mind to simulate different scenarios of waste management.

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