Dubai to have world's cheapest night-time solar power at 9.45 cents/kWh

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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NewBase June 06 - 2017 - Issue No. 1039 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Dubai set for world’s cheapest night-time solar power - CSP
The National - LeAnne Graves
World Environment Day featured record-low solar bids submitted for Dubai’s upcoming project
that will allow the sun to power thousands of homes at night.
The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) announced yesterday the prices from four
consortiums for the 200-megawatt fourth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum solar
park.
The lowest bid for the concentrated solar power (CSP) project came in at 9.45 US cents per
kilowatt-hour (kWh), nearly 40 per cent below the previous world-record low price for electricity
generated from this technology. The three other bids ranged from 10.58 cents to 17.35 cents per
kWh.
"The UAE’s focus on renewable energy generation has led to a drop in prices worldwide and has
lowered the price of solar and wind power bids in Europe and the Middle East," said Saeed Al
Tayer, the managing director and chief executive of Dewa.
The utility will now review the bid submissions to determine the project winner, a process that
usually takes a month.
Consortiums include Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power and China’s Shanghai Electric, followed by the
Abu Dhabi clean energy company Masdar with partners EDF of France and Abengoa of Spain.
Masdar and EDF confirmed their participation, but said in a joint statement that this was an "active
bid, with the technical and commercial proposals under evaluation by Dewa".
Power China, Engie of France and Solar Reserve of the US also submitted bids as well as the
Chinese firm Suncan with Al Fanar of Saudi Arabia.

Florence Fontani, Engie regional executive vice president of strategy, said that the company
would continue to bid for UAE projects for both gas and solar tenders. "Our low carbon strategy
remains well-aligned with the capacity-adding plans in the UAE, so our group will continue to
position for upcoming projects," she said
The latest phase was announced last summer as the utility looks to not only diversify its energy
mix to include more renewable sources, but also to use different technologies.
The 800MW third phase – utilising solar photovoltaic (PV) technology – was won by Abu Dhabi’s
Masdar at a bid price of 2.99 cents per kWh. CSP remains a more expensive choice than PV, but
it has its own advantage in the form of energy storage. This will mark the first time that Dubai will
use a solar thermal technology that includes up to 12 hours of storage – which means solar power
can be pumped into the grid even with little to no sun shining.
Paddy Padmanathan, chief executive of Acwa Power, said it was exciting to see CSP technology
with storage "offering dispatchable solar energy – day and night, competing with fossil fuel-based
alternatives".
The fourth phase is the first of a planned total of 1,000MW using CSP tower technology, which
has mirrors beaming light to a tower that creates steam to generate electricity.
The solar park will have a total capacity of 5GW by 2030, in line with Dubai’s clean energy
strategy of generating 75 per cent of electricity from clean energy by 2050.
Currently the solar park is generating 213MW of PV power, with another 800MW under
construction.

India Solar energy boom turns to bust for Indian manufacturers
Reuters/New Delhi
Some of India’s biggest solar equipment makers are facing financial collapse, priced out by
Chinese competitors as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government prioritises cheap power over
local manufacturing despite his ‘Make in India’ push.
Though President Donald Trump is pulling the United States out of the Paris accord on climate
change, India is sticking to its huge renewable energy programme.
That has created a multi-billion-dollar market for Chinese solar product makers, who are facing an
overcapacity at home and steep duties in Europe.
India’s solar power generation capacity has already more than tripled in three years to over 12
gigawatt (GW) as Modi targets raising energy generation from all renewable sources to 175 GW
by 2022. Chinese companies have gained the most from that increase, accounting for around
85% of India’s solar module demand and earning around $2bn, according to industry data.
The total annual market could jump to more than $10bn in the next few years going by the
government’s capacity targets.
Local companies such as Jupiter Solar, Indosolar
Ltd and Moser Baer India Ltd, however, are
struggling to win contracts. Orders funnelled through
a domestic-content policy have all but dried up after
the World Trade Organisation last September upheld
an earlier ruling that found the move violated global
trade norms.
As a result, Jupiter said it could shut shop by July
after delivering their last orders this month; Indosolar
auditors have raised doubts over it remaining as a
“going concern”; and Moser Baer says it needs support from its lenders to revive its solar
business.

Indian solar power plant developers – including companies backed by Japan’s SoftBank and
Goldman Sachs – are quoting ever-lower tariffs in auctions to win big projects, encouraged by
steep drop in Chinese solar equipment prices.
That is squeezing out Indian cell and module makers, many of which have inferior technology,
depend on imports of raw materials, have limited access to cheap loans and operate below
capacity.
Chinese modules are 10%-20% cheaper than those made in India, company and industry
executives said.
“The WTO ruling has torpedoed everything. It’s not a case of one company – we have the largest
cell operating capacity – everybody below us will shut down one after another,” Jupiter CEO
Dhruv Sharma told Reuters by phone.
Chinese companies were selling solar cells in India at 19-20 US cents, around 35% below his
production cost, he added. There are more than 110 Indian solar cell and module makers
registered with the government, out of which consultancy Bridge to India expects only a handful to
survive.
Santosh Vaidya, a senior official in the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, said the government
was working on several initiatives to promote the domestic solar manufacturing industry. He did
not elaborate.
India’s promise, and need, as a market for solar is obvious. It is one of the lowest per-capita
consumers of electricity in the world and more than 200mn of its people are still not connected to
the grid, making it crucial for the government to aggressively push for cheap power. Despite its
low labour costs, it is not alone in buckling under pressure from Chinese competition.
Earlier this month, Germany’s SolarWorld, once Europe’s largest solar panel maker, said it would
file for insolvency. Indian companies produced an estimated 1.33 GW of modules last year out of
the total capacity of 5.29 GW, according to Bridge to India.
Total consumption of modules – 60% of a solar project’s cost – was around 4 GW. Solar project
developer SB Energy, a joint venture between SoftBank, Taiwan’s Foxconn and India’s Bharti
Enterprises, said it had discussed the shortage of local manufacturing with the government.
“Lack of significant domestic solar manufacturing capacity is a concern, as this is a major gap,” SB
Energy executive chairman Manoj Kohli said, drawing a parallel with India’s huge mobile phone
market but negligible local production.
Several company executives said a lack of scale, absence of raw material supply chains and
rapidly changing technology were some of other reasons Indian firms were unable to compete
with Chinese manufacturers such as Trina Solar and Yingli.
“The government is busy bringing power prices down... but you can’t build castles on graves,”
Gyanesh Chaudhary, CEO of module maker Vikram Solar told Reuters. “Without a domestic
manufacturing ecosystem, no public policy can last for a long time.”

Oman Energy Industry-Academia R&D Protocol 2017 ratified
Oman Observer
Oman’s Ministry of Oil & Gas, Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) and The Research Council
have ratified The 2017 Oman Energy Industry-Academia R&D Protocol in an effort to build a
vibrant research ecosystem within the country that can deliver the solutions that the energy
industry requires to sustain output through to 2040 and beyond.
Over the last decade Oman has demonstrated a commitment to innovative research which has
successfully stemmed, and reversed, a decline in domestic oil production. More of that pioneering
spirit and partnership, combined with new technologies, will be needed going forward as the
country prepares to tap more of its heavy and complex crude oil reservoirs, and hard to access
gas reserves, to sustain and further advance production levels.
“Embedding academia into industry and vice-versa is a great idea — when I was teaching at
Sultan Qaboos University, the most useful part of my experience were the days that I spent in
PDO as they taught me how to teach and learn the real-world application of petroleum
engineering,” said Dr Mohammed bin Hamad al Rumhy, Minister of Oil & Gas, Oman.
“We need to find areas for collaboration, and we can start now by identifying professors
throughout Academia who can spend time in industry,” Dr Al Rumhy said at the signing of the
Protocol in his office earlier yesterday.
The R&D Protocol, which was harvested from a series of industry-academia workshops facilitated
by Gulf Intelligence through 2015-16, calls upon companies and universities that ratify the
agreement to adhere to a series of recommendations which are designed to develop a mission
critical research ecosystem working on behalf of Oman’s energy industry. Much of the country’s oil
reserves are classed as ‘heavy oil’ and require specialist technology to maximise production, such
as enhanced oil recovery technologies.

Bridging the gap between Oman’s energy Industry and Academia to develop a vibrant research
and development culture of collaboration could take three to five years to embed, according to
almost two thirds of the 150 stakeholders polled in a GIQ Survey conducted late last year.
“The alignment between Oman’s Industry and Academia must be improved in order for Oman to
deliver an enhanced R&D ecosystem that fosters efficient public-private partnerships,” said Raoul
Restucci, Managing Director, PDO. “It is important to better integrate and lever Academia and to
ensure a full and seamless understanding of the challenges industry faces — in technology,
innovation, and even legislative or economic hurdles — and work with private and public
companies to find solutions.”
“For many years, PDO has embraced innovation and worked diligently with our partners and
stakeholders to develop talented Omani students, professionals and businesses in areas of
operational, technical and commercial delivery and value creation and this agreement will give this
work added impetus.”
While Oman has been improving its R&D infrastructure, many observe that most new innovative
technologies are still imported through international partnerships and not developed locally in the
Sultanate. In order for this trend to change it is necessary to bolster the national capacity for R&D
by developing and deepening collaboration between industry, academia, and government
throughout Oman.
“Academia cannot do research for research sake; efforts have to be focused in order to deliver
applied results that are useful to the profitability of Industry and to Oman as a whole,” said Dr Hilal
al Hinai, Secretary-General of The Research Council.
“Leveraging the considerable opportunity in Oman is a journey that must be equally shared by
Industry and Academia. The success of these partnerships is integral to Oman’s economic health,
as oil and gas production accounted for the vast majority of government revenues in 2015,” he
said after signing the Protocol document with Restucci.
The R&D Protocol will be implemented through a digital platform where industry, academia, and
government can connect around research and innovation activities, based on an uber like virtual
market place model. The platform will be managed by the Institute of Advanced Technology
Integration (IATI) formed by The Research Council and PDO.

Saudi oil flow to US and the current Saudis oil production cuts
By Julian Lee + NewBase
It was a dismal day for OPEC when it met in Vienna to extend its output deal. Despite an
agreement to limit supply for another nine months -- a move it had signaled well in advance -- the
price of crude fell by around 5 percent.
The one bright moment came when Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih announced that his
country would cut crude sales to the U.S. Prices rallied briefly, adding as much as 50 cents. But
a closer look at his comments reveals they may lack teeth. Unless the Saudis get serious about
depriving customers of crude they want to buy, pessimism on OPEC's ability to rebalance the
market is warranted.
Here's what he actually said during the press conference after the meeting between the group and
its friends on May 25:
"As a result of certain marketing developments, including separating the assets of Motiva and
Aramco focusing on the Port Arthur refinery, you will see a marked decline of Saudi Aramco
exports into the U.S."
The Motiva assets were a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Shell that was actually
dissolved at the start of May, with Aramco retaining the Port Arthur refinery in Texas and Shell
taking the Norco and Convent plants in Louisiana.
The split leaves Shell free to source feedstock for its refineries from anywhere it wishes, but Norco
and Convent process very little Saudi crude anyway. U.S. Department of Energy data show that
imports by the two plants averaged just 33,000 barrels a day over the year to March, less than 3
percent of total U.S. crude purchases from the kingdom. So changed marketing arrangements
there won't do much to dent the flow of Saudi exports to America.
Who's Buying?
Motiva bought less than a quarter of U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia in the last year

The Port Arthur refinery is a different story. Its imports over the same period averaged 238,000
barrels a day, or 21 percent of all Saudi crude sales to the U.S. However, it is unlikely that Saudi
Aramco will switch its diet to other grades given that it's geared to processing its own crude. After
all, as Al-Falih also said in that same press conference:
"The U.S. market is a key market for Saudi Aramco...So we cannot, and will not, withdraw
completely from the U.S."
So, if the reduced imports of Saudi crude won't hit the three Motiva refineries, where will the cuts
come? Aside from Motiva, the biggest importers of Saudi crude are Chevron, Marathon and PBF
Energy plants in California, Louisiana and New Jersey respectively. In addition, the EIA lists a
further 15 U.S. refineries importing Saudi crude in March -- the most recent month for which data
is available.
There is little to suggest that Saudi crude will become less attractive to U.S. refiners. Iraq and
Kuwait both raised the official selling prices to American buyers for their crudes relative to
competing Saudi grades. That ought to make the kingdom's oil a better buy for U.S. refiners this
month. That means that any reduction will have to come from the kingdom turning buyers away.
Relative Pricing
Saudi crude just got more competitive against its Middle East rivals
Bloomberg tanker tracking data shows Saudi crude exports to the U.S. in May at around 840,000
barrels a day. That is a drop of 160,000 barrels from April. Significant? Perhaps, but it only takes
them back to where they were in January, the first month of the output deal.
OIL FLOW
Crude loading during June in Saudi Arabia will arrive off the U.S. coast between mid-July and mid-
August. By then, refinery runs will already be at their seasonal peak and attention will be starting
to turn towards the fall slowdown, which typically gets under way around the end of July. This may
allow the Saudis to claim a seasonal downturn as evidence of cuts.

The Saudis said back in January, when this whole rebalancing process began, that cuts would
focus on Atlantic Basin markets -- the U.S. and Europe -- rather than Asia. The data show that
didn't happen. Perhaps it will be different this time, as they've made a very public statement on
something highly visible. But I'm not holding my breath just yet.

Qatar's an LNG Giant But Far Smaller When It Comes to Oil
Bloomberg - Dan Murtaugh
Qatar is a big fish in the world of liquefied natural gas but a relative minnow when it comes to oil.
The Middle Eastern nation, which was targeted by a Saudi Arabia-led alliance over Iran tensions
Monday, is the world’s biggest producer of the super-chilled fuel, shipping out more than 30
percent of global exports last year.
By contrast, the OPEC member accounts for only about 2 percent of the world’s oil supply.
Qatar’s geography is more important to the oil market, as it sits near the three largest OPEC
producers -- Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran -- and the crucial chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz.

Malaysia: Petronas' stake sale of offshore gas asset advances
Source: Reuters
The sale by Malaysian energy firm Petronas of an estimated $1 billion stake in a local upstream
gas project - SK316 - has moved to the second round and is set to attract interest from about half
a dozen bidders including Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil, four sources familiar with the matter
said, according to Reuters.
State-owned Petronas had kicked off a process to sell a stake of up to 49 percent in the SK316
offshore gas block in Malaysia's Sarawak state, Reuters reported in February.
Prospective buyers are expected to submit second round financial bids this month, and a final
decision on the successful bidder is expected later this year, said two sources. Sources
said Total, PTT Exploration and
Production and some Japanese
firms are also among those keen to bid
for the asset.
The transaction, if completed, would
mark Petronas' biggest upstream stake
sale since oil prices started falling
more than two years ago.
All the sources declined to be identified
as discussions between Petronas and
the companies are private, adding that
terms of the deal could change
depending on how the talks proceed.
In a statement to Reuters in April,
Petronas had said that through its unit,
Petronas Carigali, it was seeking partners who could bring the technology and capabilities to
explore, develop and efficiently operate the various fields and opportunities in the SK316 offshore
gas block.
Shell, ExxonMobil and Total declined to comment.
PTT Exploration said it was keen to invest in Thailand and Southeast Asia due to its expertise in
these markets and as costs and risks were low. 'This area is consistent with the company's
expansion strategy, however, the company will consider details of each project before making an
investment decision,' PTTEP said in response to a query on its interest in the Petronas asset.
Gas from the NC3 field in the SK316 block feeds Malaysia's LNG export project, known as LNG 9,
a joint venture between Petronas and JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corp that began commercial
production in January.

NewBase 06 June 2017 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil resumes slide on worries Middle East rift could sap drive to
cut output … Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices on Tuesday resumed their slide from the previous session, hit by concerns that a
political rift between Qatar and several Arab states would undermine an OPEC-led push to tighten
the market.
Persistent gains in U.S. production also dragged on benchmark crude prices, traders said.
Brent crude futures were trading at $49.15 per barrel at 0119 GMT, down 32 cents, or 0.65
percent from their last close. That was more than 8 percent below May 25, when an OPEC-led
policy to cut oil output was extended into the first quarter of 2018.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had dropped 32 cents, or 0.7 percent, to
$47.08 per barrel. That was down over 7.5 percent from May 25.
The Arab world's biggest powers cut ties with Qatar on Monday, accusing it of support for Islamist
militants and Iran.
Steps taken include closing down transport links with Qatar and preventing ships coming from or
going to the small peninsular nation. That includes the port and docking area of Fujairah, in the
United Arab Emirates, used by Qatari oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers to take on new
shipping fuel.
With production capacity of about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd), Qatar's crude output ranks as
one of the smallest among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, but tension
within the cartel could weaken the supply deal aimed at supporting prices.
Oil price special
coverage

"A potential risk to monitor might be that Qatar will view this as being provided with less
encouragement to comply with the agreed production quota," said Jameel Ahmad of futures
brokerage FXTM.
Although Qatar is a relatively small oil producer, other OPEC states could see such an action as a
reason to stop restraining their own output, traders said.
Worries over the outlook for OPEC's drive to rein in production come amid bulging supplies from
elsewhere, especially the United States.
U.S. crude production has jumped over 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.34 million barrels per day
(bpd), levels close to top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.
"The relentless increase in U.S. oil production appears to have the market worried that the OPEC
cuts will be completely nullified by the increased U.S. production," William O'Loughlin, analyst at
Australia's Rivkin Securities, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.
Oil Slips as Gulf Diplomatic Clash Seen to Have Limited Impact
by Jessica Summers
Oil dropped to the lowest level in more than three weeks as the market refocused on glut
concerns after a diplomatic clash involving Saudi Arabia and Qatar was seen as having a limited
impact on supply.
Futures dropped 0.6 percent in New York, after rising as much as 1.6 percent earlier in the
session. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt said they will suspend air,
sea and land travel to and from Qatar, escalating a crisis that started from a dispute over relations
with Iran. Qatar, though, still has access to shipping routes to deliver oil and gas to global buyers,
and the specter of rising U.S. rig counts remains an issue.

“The market has again turned its focus to worries that excess supplies are going to continue to
keep the glut in place,” Gene McGillian, market research manager at Tradition Energy in
Stamford, Connecticut, said by telephone.
West Texas Intermediate for July delivery slipped 26 cents to settle at $47.40 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since May 10. Total volume traded was about 12
percent above the 100-day average. WTI fell 4.3 percent last week, the largest weekly drop since
early May.
Gasoline futures for July delivery declined 2.5 percent to settle at $1.5381 a gallon, the lowest
level in more than three weeks. The July gasoline crack spread, a rough measure of the profit
from the refining crude into gasoline, fell by $1.38 to settle at $17.20 a barrel.
Brent for August settlement fell 48 cents to end the session at $49.47 a barrel on the London-
based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $1.89
to August WTI, the smallest premium since late February.
Crude has traded below $50 a barrel in New York since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries agreed to extend output cuts amid lingering concerns that the reductions won’t be
enough to shrink global inventories as U.S. output continues to expand. While the Saudi-Qatar
diplomatic spat hasn’t affected shipments, further escalation could raise the prospect of supply
disruptions from the Middle East, including OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar.
The nations all use the Strait of Hormuz, through which the U.S. Department of Energy estimates
about 30 percent of seaborne oil trade passes.

‘No Disruption’
“The gas continues to flow. There is no disruption in the cargo schedule. At the end of the day, it
sends the signal that there’s not this unified OPEC-type situation that is advertised,” Bob Yawger,
director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York, said by telephone.
In the meantime, “the rig count in the United States is up 20 weeks in a row," Yawger said. “We’re
not going to burn off the storage overhang here in the U.S. any time soon.”
While OPEC members have had political disputes and even fought wars through the
organization’s 57-year history, their shared economic interests have meant agreements on oil
production have still been implemented. The same will probably happen during the current
dispute, said Abdulsamad Al-Awadhi, a London-based analyst who was one of Kuwait’s
representatives to the group between 1980 and 2001.
Glut Worries
Drillers targeting crude in the U.S. added rigs for the 20th straight week to the highest level since
April 2015, according to data Friday from Baker Hughes Inc. Nationwide crude output is at the
highest level since August 2015.
Worries remain that OPEC and non-OPEC’s deal to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels a day
“is really going to face a significant offset by rising production levels elsewhere in the world,”
Tradition Energy’s McGillian said.

NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 06 June 2017
Expect the Unexpected: The Disruptive Power of Low-carbon
Technology Report
This report was produced in partnership between Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Institute at
Imperial College London. This study analyses the potential for continued cost reductions in solar
photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicle (EV) technologies to displace demand for currently
dominant fossil fuels and mitigate CO2 emissions. In doing so, the report reviews the validity of
continuing to base corporate strategies on ‘business as usual’ scenarios.
For the detail of this report please follow this link “ highly recommended “
http://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Expect-the-Unexpected_CTI_Imperial.pdf
Summary of the report
The time for energy transformations is now
Achieving climate stability will require deep and widespread changes in the global energy sector.
Fossil fuel industry projections, however, continue to show a future energy system with few
changes to that of today.
This is in spite of examples of disruption in the energy sector at the hands of the low-carbon
transition. This scenario analysis was produced in partnership between Carbon Tracker and the
Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and explores the extent to which ongoing cost
reductions could see solar photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EVs) impact future demand for
coal, oil and gas.
The findings of this study should motivate energy companies and their investors to retire the use
of business as usual (BAU) scenarios and further integrate the consideration of downside demand
scenarios.

Updating model assumptions is critical
This study demonstrates the importance of using the latest available data and market trends for
technology costs and climate policy in energy modelling. Applying up-to-date solar PV and EV
cost projections, along with climate policy effort in line with the Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs), should now be the starting point for any scenario analysis. This is not a
radical disruptive scenario in terms of its inputs, but a reflection of the current state of play. The
key findings in this scenario are presented below.
Low-carbon technologies
▶ Solar PV (with associated energy storage costs included) could supply 23% of global power
generation in 2040 and 29% by 2050, entirely phasing out coal and leaving natural gas with just a
1% market share. ExxonMobil sees all renewables supplying just 11% of global power generation
by 2040.
▶ EVs account for approximately 35% of the road transport market by 2035 – BP put this figure at
just 6% in its 2017 energy outlook. By 2050, EVs account for over two-thirds of the road transport
market. This growth trajectory sees EVs displace approximately two million barrels of oil per day
(mbd) in 2025 and 25mbd in 2050. To put these figures in context, the recent 2014-15 oil price
collapse was the result of a two mbd (2%) shift in the supply-demand balance.
Fossil fuel demand
▶ Although this study focuses on the decarbonisation of the global power and road transport
sectors, which today account for only 51% of global CO2 emissions and fossil fuel demand
approximately, this scenario sees:
▷ Coal demand peaking in 2020;
▷ Oil demand peaking in 2020; and
▷ Gas demand growth curtailed.
Global warming
Global average temperature rise is limited to between 2.4°C (50% probability) and 2.7°C (66%
probability) by 2100 in this scenario – far below the BAU trajectory towards 4°C and beyond used
by fossil fuel companies.
If climate policy exceeds the pathway prescribed by NDCs, and overall energy demand is lower,
cost reductions in solar PV and EVs can help limit global warming to between 2.1°C (50%
probability) and 2.3°C (66% probability). Efforts must be made to align with this more carbon-
constrained trajectory.
The ‘10% threshold’
In the past Carbon Tracker has shown that a 10% shift in market share can be crippling for
incumbents, such as in the value destruction experienced by EU utilities and the near collapse of
the US coal sector.
Scenarios produced in this study indicate that 10% shifts in market share from incumbents to solar
PV or EVs could occur within a single decade. This contrasts with many BAU scenarios which do
not see these technologies gaining a 10% market share, even over several decades. Breaking

through these kinds of thresholds is significant because they signal the peak in demand for coal or
oil; changing the fundamental market dynamic for these fossil fuels.
No more business as usual
By definition, BAU scenarios involve no additional climate policy mitigation action beyond the
present level, or acceleration in the extent to which low-carbon technologies impact energy
markets.
Given the energy transition is clearly already underway, and there is no way that BAU can meet
the climate targets that many countries, states and companies have committed to, it is our
contention that it is time to retire the conventional approach to use BAU as a starting point in
scenario analyses.
The current state of the low-carbon transition means it is highly risky to justify any business
strategy by using a BAU scenario as a reference case. By changing the starting point, it shifts the
focus on to how to achieve the Paris COP climate targets, i.e. a 2°C reference scenario, rather
than the gap between BAU and what is already happening.

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase June 2017 K. Al Awadi

Solar power is the key to renewable development in the GCC. Installed solar capacity is expected
to reach 76 GW by 2020, representing massive opportunity for suppliers in the region.
Co-located with The Big 5 Dubai, The Big 5 Solar launches this November 26 - 29th 2017. 20% of The Big 5
visitors in 2016 were looking for solar technologies making The Big 5 Solar an ideal platform to meet
dedicated buyers, get inspired at the Global Solar Leader's Summit and open up to new markets.

Dubai to have world's cheapest night-time solar power at 9.45 cents/kWh

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Dubai to have world's cheapest night-time solar power at 9.45 cents/kWh